Open mike 11/06/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, June 11th, 2024 - 71 comments
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71 comments on “Open mike 11/06/2024 ”

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  1. SPC 1
    11 June 2024 at 6:55 am

    A huge gain in wealth, has not resulted in any increase in tax

    "I thought the rich list was really interesting, the thing that stood out for me is that over the last year the increase in wealth of that very small number of people at the top has increased by $23 billion," Wood said.

    "That would be the equivalent of $10,000 for every single wage and salary earner in New Zealand, and that's been at the time of a recession.

    The Taxpayers Union perspective

    "No one in the world taxes that (unrealised CG), and it is disinformation to encourage comparisons to those primarily earning PAYE income," spokesperson Jordan Williams said at the time.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/aotearoa-s-rich-list-shows-new-zealand-is-a-little-out-of-balance-e-t-union-organiser-and-ex-labour-mp-michael-wood.html

    In this he is not siding with income tax payers, but those who would be subject to CGT or estate tax (24/36 in the OCCD have both) – making ours one of the the least progressive regimes in that group.

    We have only a bright-line test lasting up to 2 years, no zero free threshold and our top rate of income tax is in the bottom third.

    https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?DataSetCode=TABLE_I7

    The only mitigation to inequality is tax credits to support low income families.

    UNREALISED GAINS AND TAX

    Concern at the trend to borrow against unrealised CG and then pass on wealth to others in ways that result on tax, even where there is an estate tax.

    https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2021/10/the-tax-on-unrealized-capital-gains.html

    Options – 5% stamp duty on houses sold over $2M – as Oz does (up to $500M pa with 5000 sales).

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/132844161/50000-homes-open-for-purchase-by-foreign-home-buyers-under-nationals-plan

    A 5% windfall tax on bank profits $6B – $300M pa. A 1% stamp duty on all houses with exemption for the owner occupier.

    • tc 1.1
      11 June 2024 at 7:21 am

      I recall a crikey piece where oz billionaires over the 3 covid years of 2020-2022 increased their wealth by an average of 66%.

      A rigged game for capital, labour doesn't stand a chance.

    • Ad 1.2
      11 June 2024 at 10:09 am

      OK so I'll try an alternative view.

      The only companies we could successfully tax like this are the ones with assets that are fixed in New Zealand.

      The rest would quickly offshore to avoid new taxes, because they are mobile.

      Typical examples of likely capital mobility are Xero who listed in Australia, the Mowbrays who are entirely family-held, NZSuper because they are mostly international shares. Another would be ACC Fund, other than their local projects.

      The large ones who would be taxed would be all the iwi entities, many of the energy entities, Fonterra and Tatua, all local government companies and Crown entities, all local housing entities and owners. Those taxes would be passed on to the local consumers: us.

      The question I'd like to see from any party is: how do we generate more multimillionaires not fewer?

      • Michael Scott 1.2.1
        11 June 2024 at 10:33 am

        Great comment Ad. If the left really wanted to get rid of poverty we'd see policies designed to create as much wealth as possible for as many as possible.

        Often it seems what they desire is as much power as possible for as few as possible.

        • weka 1.2.1.1
          11 June 2024 at 7:55 pm

          Great comment Ad. If the left really wanted to get rid of poverty we'd see policies designed to create as much wealth as possible for as many as possible.

          how would that end poverty?

          • Michael Scott 1.2.1.1.1
            12 June 2024 at 4:49 pm

            Weka that is a great question. I have been thinking about a response all afternoon. I don't want to give a trite answer so will respond tomorrow on OM.

      • Incognito 1.2.2
        11 June 2024 at 10:58 am

        The question I'd like to see from any party is: how do we generate more multimillionaires not fewer?

        That’s easily answered and done: subsidise Lotto.

        https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/518980/lotto-seven-winners-to-split-whopping-50m-jackpot

        Alternatively, give landlords a huge tax cut and transfer even more wealth to them.

      • SPC 1.2.3
        11 June 2024 at 11:15 am

        The only companies we could successfully tax like this are the ones with assets that are fixed in New Zealand.

        Total nonsense. The only tax on companies mentioned was a windfall profits tax on Oz banks – who make some of the world best returns here – so would not leave.

        Would you care to explain in what way a CGT, or estate tax or stamp duty impacts on any of the companies mentioned?

      • Drowsy M. Kram 1.2.4
        11 June 2024 at 11:41 am

        The question I'd like to see from any party is: how do we generate more multimillionaires not fewer?

        Little ol' NZ is apparently up there (#5 of 48 countries listed) when it comes to the percentage of Kiwis who are millionaires (~9.6%). Some might say that's not a bad platform for "more multimillionaires", and that we should be aiming to close the gap with Australia (#4; 11.2%).

        Others might argue that somewhere in the 4.8% to 8.5% range (Ireland – UK – Norway – Belgium – Sweden – Canada – Denmark – Netherlands) is a more sustainable platform, and healthier in a socioeconomic sense.

        Maybe it boils down to what one values. If Aotearoa NZ really needs moar multimillionaires, then a quick fix would be to direct market NZ citizenship to wealthy foreigners – just until we crack the problem of domestic generation, of course.

        He was controversially granted New Zealand citizenship in 2011 after the Fifth National Government intervened on his behalf. Thiel had spent 12 non-consecutive days in the country, a fraction of the normal residency requirement of 1,350 days for citizenship.
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel

        Opinion: No more billionaires? We can be more ambitious than that. No one needs more than $20 million [29 Jan 2024]
        We must ask ourselves: “When is enough enough?” And the answer to that question can’t be “1 billion.” Surely, we should be much more ambitious than that.

        New Zealand’s world-beating jump in wealth down to ‘rise of landed gentry’, says economist [21 Sept 2022]
        Warning of increasing inequality as global wealth report shows average wealth per adult in NZ jumped US$114,000 in 2020

        https://berl.co.nz/economic-insights/great-wealth-transfer-and-inequality

      • bwaghorn 1.2.5
        11 June 2024 at 1:55 pm

        Fuck more multi millonaires, we don't need more people over consuming massively, and let's face it higher wages just get prayed upon by the vultures.

        Link the bottom income to the top , no more than 3× should focus the bosses minds,

        Good housing, top public education, health and transport, is what's needed,

      • Descendant Of Smith 1.2.6
        11 June 2024 at 3:54 pm

        As proffered some years back by – stop putting our effort into low waged, low productivity industries like tourism, apple production, bringing in foreign students…..

        Oh and learn from Maori about making the country better for our mokopuna.

        Your a dick Michael Scott with your "if the left" because you well know the right has no interest in doing anything about poverty and are the ones who clearly want power for powers sake. Bunch of fuckers pretending to care about anything other than themselves and their wealth. Labour anyway, if you are referring them as left are really national light.

        His primary concern was our place in the world. He showed that New Zealanders work longer and harder than just about anybody, but earn less per hour than nearly all other countries we compare ourselves to. This was true then and it’s still true today.

        A reminder of his presentation back in 2011.

        https://rowansimpson.com/essays/callaghan/

        • Incognito 1.2.6.1
          11 June 2024 at 4:34 pm

          What exactly is your problem with bringing in foreign students? Is it because they may provide cheap labour?

          • Descendant Of Smith 1.2.6.1.1
            11 June 2024 at 8:51 pm

            Are you suggesting students studying are high productivity employment as Callaghan talks about?

            • Incognito 1.2.6.1.1.1
              11 June 2024 at 9:15 pm

              Why are you answering a straightforward question with another question?

              Your link is to an essay about Callaghan, or rather his vision for NZ. It says nothing about international students, which appears to be your opinion. So, again, what do you mean and what is your problem with international students?

              BTW, I don’t think Paul Callaghan did have a problem with bringing in international students into NZ to study here, or did he? His views and vision were not parochial in a narrow sense.

              • Descendant Of Smith …
                11 June 2024 at 10:10 pm

                The point was that we built part of economy around bringing overseas students here which doesn't increase our productivity while they are studying.

                (Now that doesn't mean I think we shouldn't bring students here – there are both negatives such as you have mentioned – used for low cost labour, pressure on housing markets, displacement of NZ students, scams that use study as a means of getting residency as well as positives such as increased diversity of thought, those students once qualified may go on to produce high productivity work, knowledge, inventiveness, etc.)

                Your assumption that I had a problem was irrelevant to the issue of productivity.

          • SPC 1.2.6.1.2
            11 June 2024 at 11:49 pm

            If the issue is the productivity of the economy, it would not involve continuation of a focus on adding more people in it (migration of workers or students placing pressure on infrastructure) for growth, or focus on low profit sectors (I'd except the food/resource export sector from this – but expect and encourage investment in harvesting tech to reduce dependence on there being available seasonal labour).

            As per foreign students, the focus should be on graduate students (research) in areas important to our economy and locale. Otherwise study in areas where we and the world have skilled labour shortages (such as health care/some areas of teaching – maths/science .. specialist IT/AI, etc).

        • Michael Scott 1.2.6.2
          12 June 2024 at 8:40 am

          DOS I think that the left and the right care about ending poverty but they have different solutions to get there.

          What do you mean when you say that we could "Learn from Maori about making the country better for mokopuna"

          It doesn't make any sense. What could we learn?

          Maori top all the negative social indicators for familial dysfunction.

          Violence, crime, substance abuse, incarceration.and educational failure.

          • weka 1.2.6.2.1
            12 June 2024 at 9:22 am

            if you see Māori negative stats as a reflection of Māori rather than the system we live in, then there are a whole range of solutions that will be invisible to you.

            Do you really not understand theories of colonisation and systems of oppression? Or is it that you understand them but don't think they are real? Or is it that you understand them but are ideologically opposed to the solutions that arise out of those theories?

            • Michael Scott 1.2.6.2.1.1
              12 June 2024 at 10:12 am

              This subject is fraught but my question was about what we could learn from Maori about raising children.

              I'm not sure that I fully understand theories of colonisation but I do know that we have all been colonised at some point.

              I don't believe that Maori disproportionally kill their children because they were colonised as there is a lot of evidence that Maori practiced infanticide before they were colonised.

              The primary cause of child murders is the decision of a person to harm the child

              • weka …
                12 June 2024 at 2:28 pm

                are you saying that Māori in 2024 are culturally predisposed to killing their children?

                Can you please provide the reference for Māori and infanticide so we know what are you meaning?

                • Michael Scott …
                  12 June 2024 at 3:22 pm

                  I'm not saying that Maori are predisposed to killing their children.

                  Simply that you can't blame the the effects of colonisation on infanticide committed by Maori today as it was happening before Maori were colonised.

                  Maori pre colonisation lived a class based existence where chiefs ruled . Ordinary Maori had some rights and slaves had no rights at all by historical account.

                  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/273782/#:~:text=PIP%3A%20There%20is%20much%20evidence,more%20often%20social%20than%20medical

                  https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350101339_'The_Natives_Freely_Spoke_of_the_Custom'_Sex-Selective_Infanticide_and_Maori_Depopulation_1815-58

                  https://nzetc.victoria.ac.nz/tm/scholarly/tei-Bes02Maor-t1-body-d1.html

                  P26

                  .

                  • weka …
                    12 June 2024 at 7:02 pm

                    Simply that you can't blame the the effects of colonisation on infanticide committed by Maori today as it was happening before Maori were colonised.

                    Why not? Europeans don't have the same child practices from hundreds of years ago, why would Māori?

                    Your sources are google light. Elsdon Best was a British man who didn't get Māori culture, hence phrases like "the quaint customs of the barbaric Maori". He makes a single sentence reference to infanticide. My understanding is that infanticide was part of many cultures where food was scarce and was the killing of newborn babies. That's the same as the kind of lashing out violence we see now, where there is no intention to end a baby's life in order that older children don't starve.

                    • Michael Scott …
                      12 June 2024 at 8:05 pm

                      Weka Maori changed their infanticide practices because the missionaries showed them a better way. They abandoned slavery and cannibalism for the same reason.

                      Not because they signed a treaty but because they became convinced that forgiveness was better than utu.

                      The inter tribal wars that had killed a third of the Maori race from 1800 to 1830 virtually ceased and Maori began to walk a better moral path.

                    • weka []
                      12 June 2024 at 9:25 pm

                      yes there were things Māori valued from the missionaries, for sure. But also, declining population and more secure food sources, infanticide was not needed. Do you understand the pressure of having to kill a new born because there isn’t enough to feed it? All cultures have been there.

                      I just don’t see the connection between that and the violence against children that happens now. We know from European accounts that when they arrived there was very little child abuse among Māori. It was so unusual to the Europeans, that they commented on it.

                      I didn’t say anything about the Treaty, not sure why you bought that up.

                      And btw, utu means reciprocity. It’s not inherently negative in the way you seem to be implying. And at that time, Europeans were shipping people across the globe to a penal colony for stealing loaves of bread. So let’s not forget how other peoples were brutal too.

                    • joe90 …
                      12 June 2024 at 8:37 pm

                      inter tribal wars that had killed a third of the Maori race

                      Now do the Wars of Religion, the warm up for Europe's mechanised warfare of the 19/20thC, that ravaged Europe for > three hundred years.

                      Just one war, The thirty Years War, claimed the lives of around a third of Germans, and in the territory of Brandenburg close to half the population, and in some areas populations declined by an estimated two thirds.

                      But savages, eh…

                      /

                    • weka []
                      12 June 2024 at 9:20 pm

                      my people in Scotland were apparently running round killing all the men in a rival clan village apart from young kids and oldies. We all have brutal histories.

                      I was thinking about the European wars recently, they’re mindboggling in terms of the politics and scale and how long they did that shit for.

                    • joe90 …
                      12 June 2024 at 9:40 pm

                      We all have brutal histories.

                      Some time ago I listened to Kim Hill's interview with author Louise Noble…hoo boy…

                      However, consuming human remains fit with the leading medical theories of the day. “It emerged from homeopathic ideas,” says Noble. “It’s 'like cures like.' So you eat ground-up skull for pains in the head.” Or drink blood for diseases of the blood.

                      Another reason human remains were considered potent was because they were thought to contain the spirit of the body from which they were taken. “Spirit” was considered a very real part of physiology, linking the body and the soul. In this context, blood was especially powerful. “They thought the blood carried the soul, and did so in the form of vaporous spirits,” says Sugg. The freshest blood was considered the most robust. Sometimes the blood of young men was preferred, sometimes, that of virginal young women. By ingesting corpse materials, one gains the strength of the person consumed. Noble quotes Leonardo da Vinci on the matter: “We preserve our life with the death of others. In a dead thing insensate life remains which, when it is reunited with the stomachs of the living, regains sensitive and intellectual life.”

                      The idea also wasn’t new to the Renaissance, just newly popular. Romans drank the blood of slain gladiators to absorb the vitality of strong young men. Fifteenth-century philosopher Marsilio Ficino suggested drinking blood from the arm of a young person for similar reasons. Many healers in other cultures, including in ancient Mesopotamia and India, believed in the usefulness of human body parts, Noble writes.

                      […]

                      As science strode forward, however, cannibal remedies died out. The practice dwindled in the 18th century, around the time Europeans began regularly using forks for eating and soap for bathing. But Sugg found some late examples of corpse medicine: In 1847, an Englishman was advised to mix the skull of a young woman with treacle (molasses) and feed it to his daughter to cure her epilepsy. (He obtained the compound and administered it, as Sugg writes, but “allegedly without effect.”) A belief that a magical candle made from human fat, called a “thieves candle,” could stupefy and paralyze a person lasted into the 1880s. Mummy was sold as medicine in a German medical catalog at the beginning of the 20th century. And in 1908, a last known attempt was made in Germany to swallow blood at the scaffold.

                      https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-gruesome-history-of-eating-corpses-as-medicine-82360284/

      • gsays 1.2.7
        12 June 2024 at 7:36 pm

        There's not too much that's alternative about that view. 'Capital flight' is just another catch cry for the defenders of the hegemony of neo liberalism.

        There is plenty enough wealth in this country, the issue is distribution.

        National act on behalf of their affluent donors and Labour, under Ardern and Hipkins, are too gutless to do redistribute it

        • Michael Scott 1.2.7.1
          12 June 2024 at 8:18 pm

          Gsays there is a strange logic that says the profit I make after paying all due taxes from my own hard work is unjust. But living off the work of others is fine.

          • gsays 1.2.7.1.1
            12 June 2024 at 8:34 pm

            Yr getting close to the idea with "due taxes''.

            It's not for no reason the same ole trope is squealed every election "No new taxes" as if that would be a bad thing.

  2. SPC 2
    11 June 2024 at 7:07 am

    Atlas on high, how dirty money rises up and then trickles down to control the narrative on earth.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/519196/money-talks-how-the-mega-rich-can-control-the-narrative-writer-says

  3. PsyclingLeft.Always 3
    11 June 2024 at 8:10 am

    From the home of fascism….

    Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's arch-conservative Brothers of Italy group won the most votes in the European parliamentary election over the weekend, boosting her standing both at home and abroad.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/519180/italy-s-pm-meloni-comes-out-on-top-in-eu-vote-strengthening-her-hand

    the Brothers of Italy…led by a Woman….and some of their guests

    international guests included British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak , Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama, Spanish right-wing leader Santiago Abascal and businessman Elon Musk.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brothers_of_Italy

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giorgia_Meloni

    • SPC 3.1
      11 June 2024 at 2:51 pm

      Fortunately, not a fascist.

      It is like a reprise of the founding myth of Rome itself, the lupa – night worker (maybe a solo mother of her own child) – who provided a home for a pregnant woman carrying twins.

      Italy has issues being in a Euro zone unable to devalue and having high debt costs – and being expected to carry a heavier burden with refugees/migrants (worse since the chaos in Libya and Syria).

  4. AB 4
    11 June 2024 at 9:20 am

    Questions that Corin didn't ask Luxon on RNZ this morning when discussing accusations that TPM misused census data:

    • Why is Luxon calling for a public enquiry into the data security of systems, that he does not yet know have actually been breached?
    • Why is he not waiting for the Police enquiry to establish the facts and proceed with an enquiry only if there really was a breach?
    • What is motivating this premature and potentially unnecessary response?
    • The Police are currently investigating David McLeod's handling of political donations. The facts have not been established here either – but as this doesn't seem to matter, why is Luxon not calling a public enquiry into New Zealand's rules around political donations?
    • What do we call a government that uses the institutions of the state to discredit political opponents on the back of what is still hearsay?

    Oh well. Corin's not alone. Even the guys on BHN last night didn't seem to realise that Luxon's enquiry is into government data security, not the truth or otherwise of the allegations against TPM. The latter is down to the Police obviously.

    • SPC 4.1
      11 June 2024 at 12:19 pm

      Apart from data security and or privacy issue, there seems to be a questioning of any association of TPM associated personnel to a government funded delivery role (as per public service neutrality).

      Which appears to be part of CoC policy to diminish a politicised or nationalist Maori population – one New Zealand before any Treaty and or indigenous consideration (to dismiss minority “co-governance”). The natural outcome of which would be the end of Maori seats and ban any political party based on Maori/ethnic/race identity.

      This is our part in the post Weimar Republic reprise on the right.

      In Europe and in USA this is about immigration, via relating this to crime or to a foreign race and or cultural presence. This partners a rise in nationalist identity, economic protectionism and a return to social conservative values.

      The driver is "insecurity about change" and orchestration of a retreat into a group nationalism laager mentality.

    • James Simpson 4.2
      11 June 2024 at 12:31 pm

      Who laid the original complaint?

      • Incognito 4.2.1
        11 June 2024 at 12:48 pm

        Are you playing games?

        You already provided an answer yourself here a few days ago: https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-07-06-2024/#comment-2001927

        • James Simpson 4.2.1.1
          11 June 2024 at 1:09 pm

          Yes, it seems AB missed that, which is why I raised it again.

          This can't credibly be framed as some kind of coalition witch hunt or beat up. Six separate government agencies are investigating this. Its a serious matter that needs answers. Why anyone would be opposed to an independent enquiry is beyond me.

          As the good Chris said:

          ”And so I think if there was any improper behaviour and improper conduct, then it is important that we find out what happened there.”

    • tWig 4.3
      11 June 2024 at 9:03 pm

      RNZ reminder that Michelle Boag leaked covid personal data to a Nat candidate in 2020. Obviously OK strategy for senior Nats, if they can get away with it.

      Riddet gossip suggests that the complainants are Destiny Church members who were at Manurewa marae at election time (unsubstantiated, of course, but an interesting twist if true).

  5. Joe90 5
    11 June 2024 at 9:26 am

    Meanwhile…

    /

    @indubioproreto

    The nordic countries with a completely different result than Germany and France: Spectacular electoral gains for green and radical-left parties (MP overtakes SD in Sweden; F strongest party in Denmark, VAS number 2 in Finland), really weak results for the far-right.

    @indubioproreto

    • a historical perspective from those countries, showing historical european election results for the alternative-left in Denmark and Finland; as well as novelty in Sweden with the far-right SD for the very first time not increasing its vote share in a nationwide election

    https://x.com/indubioproreto/status/1800053488535114116

    • SPC 5.1
      11 June 2024 at 1:04 pm

      360 majority

      Ms von der Leyen’s centre-right European People’s Party emerged as the biggest grouping in the next European Parliament – 177 to 186 seats.

      And it can govern much as it did in the past European Parliament.

      With the centrist Renew (79) it can still build a majority with either Socialists and Democrats or with Conservatives and Reformists (73)** and Independents (c25^ of 45).

      186 + 79 + 135

      186 + 79 + 73** + 25^

      The Italian PM** is in a good position to extract better polices as per support for nations at the immigration front-line and with debt cost – here on side with Spain. Her support for common cause on Ukraine is her opportunity.

      https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1024/cpsprodpb/4ab5/live/dd48b1d0-273a-11ef-baa7-25d483663b8e.png.webp

      • SPC 5.1.1
        12 June 2024 at 7:03 am

        The Identity and Democracy group did not increase their total because Le Pen threw AFD out of the group for being too right wing.

        The AfD became too toxic even for France’s hard-right leader Marine Le Pen, who threw the AfD out of the right-wing European parliamentary group Identity and Democracy.

        https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c511dpvr8nlo

  6. SPC 6
    11 June 2024 at 1:12 pm

    A suggestion that National played politics with cancer drugs (as they have done with funding for hip and knee operation funding – older voters), without being on top of the detail or having a methodology to implement action.

    Sorting out "funding" being an excuse to think again about how to do it.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/519235/government-ignored-funding-process-with-cancer-drug-promise-former-pharmac-chair

  7. Incognito 7
    11 June 2024 at 1:15 pm

    National will pull out all dirty tricks to divert attention away from its own shambolic breaking of election promises; they’re in deep shit.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/519235/government-ignored-funding-process-with-cancer-drug-promise-former-pharmac-chair

    Cetuximab is not currently funded by drug agency Pharmac […]

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/519202/cancer-drugs-funding-actively-being-worked-on-nicola-willis

    This is incorrect.

    Cetuximab is funded in Aotearoa but not for this indication. [my italics]

    https://hcmsitesstorage.blob.core.windows.net/cca/assets/T_Ao_TK_Cancer_medicines_availability_analysis_FINAL_2782afa08a.pdf

    It appears twice on National’s list of 13 promised cancer treatments. However, funding one option would make the other one redundant.

    This means that if the first-line gap were filled with cetuximab or panitumumab, this gap in the second line would become redundant (for people who received cetuximab or panitumumab in the first-line setting). [same link as above]

  8. SPC 8
    11 June 2024 at 1:29 pm

    It appears that opioids more dangerous than fentanyl are being added to MDMA and meth.

    Another reason for testing of drugs (as per needles exchange etc) to enable safe supply is there.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/new-zealand-not-immune-to-new-fentanyl-sweeping-europe-the-front-page/M6C6EY5L3VCKNLKTQE4AQ7G6PY/

  9. SPC 9
    11 June 2024 at 1:42 pm

    We (if not New Zealand until 2026), on the political left are seeing some hope.

    Labour-Green + TPM support is at 46.1, with NACT at 45.1.

    NZF has never had more than one term in a coalition government. Not surviving the 1996-1999 term. And leaving parliament after 2005-2008 and 2017-2020.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/politics/350304545/nz-politics-live-national-and-labour-both-down-latest-political-poll

    • alwyn 9.1
      11 June 2024 at 1:55 pm

      Can you imagine the Labour Party campaigning on a line that said that they would go into a coalition with the Maori Party, and include them in the Government?

      I find it hard to believe that the average Labour voter would go along with them on that proposition.

      • SPC 9.1.1
        11 June 2024 at 2:05 pm

        Well you know the National Party lines.*

        It used to be fear of a Labour-Green coalition government.

        If it is now fear of a coalition, involving TPM, cool.*

        Then that is the beginning of acceptance of a Labour-Green coalition backed by a TPM support partner (Green Party in this role in 2017-2020).

        *Posing the issue as one of Labour Party voters not wanting TPM in a coalition is interesting.

        How many National Party voters are happy with the ACT and NZF CofC arrangement?

        • alwyn 9.1.1.1
          11 June 2024 at 2:27 pm

          "*Posing the issue as one of …."

          Well, I assure you that I am not currently a Labour voter and am unlikely to change at the next election. That said I can't answer the question. Neither can I comment on what National voters might think. I doubt if they are unhappy with ACT as that was very well signaled before the election although what they think about Winston I wouldn't even try and guess.

      • Bearded Git 9.1.2
        11 June 2024 at 5:14 pm

        Alwyn-Labour will not say they would go into a coalition with TPM.

        They will say a coalition with the Greens (who continue to poll strongly) is likely, and will not rule out forming a government with the support of TPM. This is how MMP works.

    • observer 9.2
      11 June 2024 at 4:15 pm

      The biggest story from that poll is the one that has never changed, and probably never will until Luxon is dumped by National.

      His personal favourability rating has dropped again, in negative territory. Reminder: it took Ardern 5 years to go "negative" in the same Curia poll. Key took even longer (using other comparable polls).

      Luxon is a total outlier, uniquely unpopular among winning PMs in the MMP era, and even well before that. There was no honeymoon, no budget boost, nothing.

      He appears to have zero self-awareness, so he won't change. His caucus will have to do the change for him. Not this year, but before the election. MPs don't vote to give up power.

      • Bearded Git 9.2.1
        11 June 2024 at 5:08 pm

        I can see them replacing Luxon with Bishop, who seems at ease supporting all of COC’s terrible policies, but is more eloquent and personable than Luxon and has a better political pedigree.

  10. Kay 10
    11 June 2024 at 2:11 pm

    From an email sent by an Aussie relative:

    Have you guys been affected much by the cost of living in NZ? It’s getting a bit horrific over here, especially in Vic where we were locked down for 2 years. Guess you can’t print money non stop and expect that inflation won’t go through the roof!

    That last sentence suggests to me that particular RW talking point is certainly doing the rounds, and if you say something often enough, then, not only will you end up believing it yourself, you can bring a lot of the population along with you. (Said relative sadly ended up right down the FB rabbit hole during the pandemic, to the anti-vax extreme, so I don't bother engaging with him on any of this).

    It did get me interested in the current VIC leadership, and policies. It's an interesting budget over seen by Jacinta Allen. A lot of it seems very familiar to our last Labour budget- a wasted opportunity. It will be interesting to see if by their next election in 2026, they too will punish-voted out. They also have a lot of people still stewing about the lockdowns.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/article/2024/may/07/victoria-state-budget-analysis-premier-jacinta-allan-cost-of-living-childcare-student-payments

    • Michael P 10.1
      11 June 2024 at 10:25 pm

      So you think the huge inflation spikes in all of the western economies in 2021/2022 were caused by something other than vast amounts of government borrowing? (I think the figure in NZ was around $70 billion?)

      What do you think was the cause?

      Note I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with the pandemic response, or lockdowns or vaccines or anything else including the money printing (borrowing).

      Just stating that it obviously caused the jump in inflation and I'd love to hear what the poster can dream up as to what they think caused it…

      • SPC 10.1.1
        11 June 2024 at 11:15 pm

        QE certainly had an impact on house price inflation – all that money available to banks for on-lending in the housing market and all at low cost.

        But where the money was to compensate for loss of economic activity (lockdowns), not so much.

        There were other causes at the global level.

        The international logistics system was disrupted – shortages.

        Loss of production because of worker shortages.

        The Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 had an impact.

        Here we had some of our own – lack of gib board, loss of migrant worker inflow, the flood events (limited supply of food). The rising cost of eggs.

        • Nic the NZer 10.1.1.1
          11 June 2024 at 11:33 pm

          "QE certainly had an impact on house price inflation – all that money available to banks for on-lending in the housing market and all at low cost."

          Also untrue, bank lending is not constrained on settlement balances (what your calling money available). The OCR system is setup to ensure there can not be a shortfall of settlement balances regardless of how much lending banks have done. And the OCR was at close to zero before QE anyway, it had been for a long period.

          The spike in house prices was because the housing market was shut down for a few months and all the transactions got compressed together when it re-opened so there was very hot competition on price for a short time.

          • SPC 10.1.1.1.1
            12 June 2024 at 3:17 am

            Grant Robertson and the Government were warned in January 2020 that there was a ‘significant’ risk Reserve Bank money printing would push up house prices and deepen inequality

            https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300223358/reserve-bank-repeatedly-warned-government-money-printing-would-lead-to-house-price-inflation

            Feel free to engage

            QE replaces bonds in the banking system with cash, effectively increasing the money supply, and making it easier for banks to free up capital. As a result, they can underwrite more loans and buy other assets.

            This so-called quantitative easing increases the size of the central bank's balance sheet and injects new cash into the economy. Banks get additional reserves (the deposits they maintain at the central bank) and the money supply grows.

            The bank will keep some of it on hand as required reserves, but it will loan the excess reserves out. When that loan is made, it increases the money supply. This is how banks “create” money and increase the money supply. When a bank makes loans out of excess reserves, the money supply increases.

            • Nic the NZer 10.1.1.1.1.1
              12 June 2024 at 9:15 am

              Unfortunately the mainstream economics framework for discussing this is fiction. This has been very widely researched by scores of economists, though primarily (not all) outside the mainstream. In fact banking was better understood by Keynes, Keldor, Robinson and formed the basis of their critique of Monetarism. The mainstream today tends instead to go with the monetarist view that there is a stable money multiplier which relatively expands the broad money supply when some notion of the monetary base expands relative to that stable multiplier. This is total fiction.

              What actually happens when commercial banks agree to extend a loan is they grow their own balance sheet with their own bank deposit liabilities (paid into a sellers account) in return for the agreement to repay the loan (the deposits in a commercial bank account are money and are recorded as such in statistics). If a loan agreement happens within the same bank then no interbank settlement payment happens so clearance balances are irrelevant. The OCR system however means if any bank is short of settlement balances then they can always borrow them to clear payments. The upshot of this is the availability of settlement balances doesn't have any implications for commercial banks ability to extend loans.

              Here is a source for the same description,

              https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2024/06/07/mmt-the-key-insights-3/

              The main driver of lending is the credit worthiness of potential borrowers and regulations which might inhibit certain loans being made.

              That this must be accurate should actually be very easy to see when your not focused on single very specific examples. After 2008 a lot of nations engaged is extensive QE policies without this resulting in massive extension in lending. You can also look back further at Japan since the 90s. Yes, there were some very foolish people who predicted an immediate large or hyper-inflation would be the result of those QE policies, just they were completely wrong. NZ just happened to implement its QE policy just prior to a significant inflation episode.

      • Nic the NZer 10.1.2
        11 June 2024 at 11:22 pm

        Its entirely implausible that government borrowing caused the inflation, how is that even supposed to work?

        The occurrence of inflation requires a significant number of price setters to increase their prices, so the cause of inflation is a question of why did they do that at the time? We know the reasons including covid based supply bottlenecks, OPEC oil price hikes, impacts of the Ukraine war on food production and also covid based demand for home office supplies. We should also understand some price hikes were profiteering, rather than matching up with genuine supply cost increases.

        None of these things are particularly related to either govt borrowing or spending or QE.

      • SPC 10.1.3
        12 June 2024 at 12:11 am

        I should have mentioned this rider

        QE can cause a relative change between economies – thus an increase in cost to business importers (and thus local consumers), if there is more paid in local currency to foreign suppliers.

  11. tWig 11
    11 June 2024 at 2:52 pm

    Carried over from The Standard's feed, a post by Meredith Dale, senior urban designer, together with a survey you can finish.

    "New Zealand’s Housing Survey has been developed and tested throughout Aotearoa, for Aotearoa …building on the PhD of Director Dr Natalie Allen, as part of a private plan change in regional NZ, as part of a comprehensive housing needs assessment in Kāpiti Coast, and for two iwi and a hapū collective developing their housing strategies. It has also included a series of industry and academic reviews and three rounds of user testing to refine the question wording across cohorts. Back end analysis processes have also been supported by a Callaghan Innovation Student Experience Grant."

  12. newsense 12
    11 June 2024 at 10:24 pm

    Things that go together, but not in societies:

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/507477/auckland-anniversary-floods-a-year-on-outstanding-insurance-claims-properties-yet-to-be-categorised

    Auckland Council said 1570 properties were yet to be categorised, which it hoped would be done in a few months.

    http://norightturn.blogspot.com/2024/06/climate-change-farmers-get-what-they.html

    At present, following the complete failure of he waka eka noa, agriculture is scheduled to enter the ETS next year at the processor level, with 95% of emissions subsidised. National will reverse this, disband he waka eka noa, and ensure an effective hundred percent subsidy for our worst polluters forever.

    Remember this when the rural ducks complain about how tough everything is. 95% ignore climate change? Okay okay 100% ignore contributing to the country dealing with minimisation and retreat. Not in a hypothetical sense at all. Your biggest asset in limbo for a year.

  13. Descendant Of Smith 13
    12 June 2024 at 9:45 am

    Reply to Michael Scott above. Unsure why it is detached.

    It is easy to focus on the deficit statistics if that is all you want to. It is also quite racist to link some of that data directly to ethnicity when other factors are at play eg crime rates follow age – young people commit more crime. If you have a younger population then you will have more crime. Teenage pregnancy the same.

    Putting that aside in any population only a small proportion are doing the offending in any community. Most are not. Trouble is most Europeans have little contact with Maori in those communities let alone with aspects of the culture that has concepts that are anathematic to capitalism.

    Capitalism is about exploitation of resources and private ownership. Callaghan touches on this. rewatch his video. In the 1800's capitalists saw things like communal ownership of land as communism and were opposed to this (in the same way the commons was destroyed largely in Europe – think copyright laws for instance.

    If you think there is nothing to learn then it isn't a voyage I should take you on – it is one you should go and explore your self.