Open mike 07/06/2024

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, June 7th, 2024 - 68 comments
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68 comments on “Open mike 07/06/2024 ”

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  1. SPC 1
    7 June 2024 at 6:54 am

    85,000 people are not getting to see a specialist after being referred by a GP.

    Presumably there are others – people who go to hospital without seeing a GP (do not have one).

    National is proposing funding of more scans of people prior to seeing a specialist (without mentioning if they have the technicians in hospitals to do this). *

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/518850/at-least-85-000-people-each-year-turned-away-from-seeing-specialists-some-dying-as-result

    This*

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/517966/radiology-services-faces-concerning-challenges-report

  2. Bearded Git 2
    7 June 2024 at 7:07 am

    From the Herald today. Tax avoidance is alive and well.

    "A tax minimisation trick has ironically seen the Government’s tax take unexpectedly spike. Companies owned by trusts appear to have flushed out excess retained earnings ahead of the trustee tax rate rising from 33 to 39 per cent on April 1, 2024 (for trusts that earn more than $10,000 a year). The value of companies’ dividend payments more than doubled, from $23.6 billion to $49.4b, in the tax year to March 31, 2024, according to figures Inland Revenue gave the Herald.

    The spike in dividend payments that occurred just before the trustee rate change took effect was such that it contributed towards the Government collecting $1.7b (1.7 per cent) more tax in the 10 months to April 30 than the Treasury expected"

    Interesting that the COC hasn’t reversed Labour’s move to tax trusts at 39% (except for smaller trusts). The politics of this would not have looked good.

    • SPC 2.1
      7 June 2024 at 8:01 am

      The GR government got the same result when they increased the top rate of tax to 39 cents, so they planned to generate this windfall by placing the rate on trusts to 39 cents this year. It was a deliberate move to add to the money available for new spending.

      Interesting that the COC hasn’t reversed Labour’s move to tax trusts at 39% (except for smaller trusts). The politics of this would not have looked good.

      They knew they needed the money because their numbers were dubious.

    • Nic the NZer 2.2
      7 June 2024 at 8:10 am

      Something also worth highlighting about this, it represents a budget forecast error in the order of $1.7 billion (over 12 months). Question is, how many of the $million cuts made and being made became irrelevant to the state of the government books by this forecast error (while often seriously hurting public service provision, institution and staff)?

      The same question arises every time an un-forecast 'improvement' in the budget position is reported, where the question regarding that improvement figure should be just how much extra public spending could have been done with the same expected impacts on the economy as forecast. The only difference is in this case the cause of a big part of the forecast error appears to be understood.

      • SPC 2.2.1
        7 June 2024 at 8:31 am

        Some of the $1.7B came from higher interest income from banks and PIE (28% max).

        The variation in dividends income comes from companies owned by trusts.

        This shows the dividend income figure variations that can occur from tax consideration.

        https://archive.li/YvYv1

        The budget impact is minimal because it is not regular revenue.

        It can be used for one off funding (school building). Funding of a first year of a new spending allocation (cancer drugs). Or maintaining existing programmes – such as food in schools 2024-2027.

        • Nic the NZer 2.2.1.1
          7 June 2024 at 9:29 am

          Not sure what point your making. Trying to fine tune a forecast figure which you have only a very fuzzy idea of is fundamentally foolish, and hurting so many people in the process makes that malicious.

          • SPC 2.2.1.1.1
            7 June 2024 at 10:08 am

            Budgets are based on knowns, not unknowns.

            Revenue of 101.7B instead of $100B has more of an impact on future budget plans where it is not a one off increase.

            Regardless of ones view on the nature of government organisation – as to funding means or level of funding, and its ultility to people, it has to do budgets.

            This is so, even though government subservience to a yearly budget balance has moved on – to one of management across the economic cycle, and even then within the context of borrowing for future development – infrastructure and either having contingency allocation or low debt for a rainy day.

            The issue here is really one of maintaining government activity across the economic cycle because political parties have a different perspective on a sustainable baseline role and level to public service delivery.

            • Nic the NZer 2.2.1.1.1.1
              7 June 2024 at 10:59 am

              "Budgets are based on knowns, not unknowns."

              I take this to mean you can only forecast based on things you know, which seems rather beside the point. There are lots of things in the budget which are estimates because you don't know them. In this case were talking about something which treasury could have apparently estimated much better, but simply forgot to. Estimates are going to be wrong to some degree of course. The reason that should be contentious is the scale of the things you can't estimate well dwarfs the scale of the things which are being focused on.

              "The budget impact is minimal because it is not regular revenue."

              Don't mistake something which might be legitimately hard to estimate for being unimportant. For specific example, minimal in this context is apparently $1.7 billion over 12 months. The recent Kainga Ora review forecast that the operating balance deficit would grow from $520 million to $700 million annually. This is substantially smaller than that minimal budget error. Kainga Ora is also one of the larger departments in the budget.

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.3
      7 June 2024 at 8:38 am

      Priorities of course.

      https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/17/to-target-benefit-frauds-or-tax-evaders-act-leader-questioned/

      And yep we can see, and know, why..

      Newsable: Billions likely lost to tax evasion, as white collar crime investigators go underfunded

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/300878382/newsable-billions-likely-lost-to-tax-evasion-as-white-collar-crime-investigators-go-underfunded

      And under NActFirst….thats even less likely to change.

    • Incognito 2.4
      7 June 2024 at 8:46 am

      Link, please.

    • Descendant Of Smith 2.6
      7 June 2024 at 9:29 am

      Yeah I remember seeing some advice from financial advisors to do this before the tax rate went up. Just shows how much the system is designed for those who have the greatest means to pay tax.

      I'm still not sure what benefit NZ gets from all the tax haven trusts we have either. Does it just make it look like the country is flush with money even though it doesn't belong to us? Does it just enable banks to lend more money because they have these massive amounts sitting in these foreign owned trusts?

  3. SPC 3
    7 June 2024 at 9:17 am

    From the school of common sense.

    Pro rata for pay occurs now. This is based on hours worked (the amount paid even if working, or annual leave or sick leave is taken).

    Pro rata of sick leave is based on days worked.

    If it is 5 days a week part-time or full-time – then that is 10 days a year sick leave.

    If it is 4 days part-time or full-time – that is 8 days sick leave.

    If it 3 days part-time or full-time – that is 6 days sick leave.

    If it is 2 days part-time or full-time – then it is 4 days.

    If it is 1 day part-time or full-time – then it is 2 days.

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/06/07/how-the-proposed-sick-leave-changes-could-impact-you/

    • Mike the Lefty 3.1
      7 June 2024 at 9:49 am

      You might think it is all common sense.

      I am suspicious of the motives of a party that has, in the past, advocated the reduction of both annual and sick leave for waged workers, plus abolition of penal rates for working on public holidays and was a prime advocate of what we call now "zero hours contracts".

      Leopards do not change their spots.

    • AB 3.2
      7 June 2024 at 11:14 am

      Yes, so are the libertarian freaks from ACT trying to pull a trick here?

      Let's assume for simplicity that a full-time working year (minus weekends, public holidays and annual leave) is 40 weeks (200 days) – it's a bit longer in reality, but this keeps the arithmetic simpler.

      If I currently work 5 days a week and 8 hours a day – my working year would be 200 days and 1600 hours. I currently get 10 full-time days (80 hours) of sick-leave – that's one working day in 20 and one hour in 20.

      If I currently work 4 days a week and 4 hours a day – my working year would be 160 (part-time days) and 640 hours. I currently get 8 part-time 4-hour days (32 hours) of sick leave – that's also one working day in 20 and one hour in 20.

      However, what happens if we slyly convert those 640 annual hours of our part-time worker into full time days? 640 hours is only 80 full-time days – only 40% of the 200 days worked annually by the full-time worker. Therefore, if we pro-rate on this basis, the part-time worker will get 40% of the 10 days allowed to the full-time worker, i.e. 4 days. So now our part-time worker gets only 4 part-time 4-hour days (16 hours) of sick leave – that's now become only one working day in 40 and one hour in 40, whereas currently both of these ratios are 1 in 20.

      Note that the total effect is that our part-time worker still has to turn up on 160 days, but their sick leave allowance now treats them as if they had to turn up on only 80. It blurs the distinction between the number of working days (the days on which I must turn up to work) and the total days worked in a year (measured in full-time days)

      It's not clear that this is the trick they're pulling. But it looks like it to me.

      • SPC 3.2.1
        7 June 2024 at 11:36 am

        It sure does look like it.

        They are using examples of a person who has two (part-time) jobs and who then claims 20 days sick leave.

        This to portray it as a problem to be solved by pro rata based on hours worked. Despite the obvious injustice to those who work part-time 5 days a week.

        They can solve that problem by having another category for those who have multiple jobs.

        First category – those who meet the criteria for 10 days sick leave (those who work 5 days a week in both those jobs). Allocate the 10 days across the jobs they have. 5 days each.

        Second category – work 2 days in 2 jobs – then get 8 days sick leave – 4 for each one etc.

        It is not hard, if one is trying to be fair.

      • SPC 3.3.1
        7 June 2024 at 6:04 pm

        Sure the current regime is based on a qualifying criteria and with no pro rata at all.

        If one does have pro rata, a days based one is fairer than one based on hours.

  4. SPC 4
    7 June 2024 at 9:43 am

    Auckland is looking at roading de-congestion options.

    Time of use is no more efficient than commuter car lanes (reserved for cars with multiple people). Though charges would encourage commuter car arrangements (shared cost).

    They are fairest when there is spare PT capacity (an alternative).

    They are most unfair on those whose work requires constant travel by car to where they work (home care workers) – so there needs to be exemptions (or rebates).

  5. adam 5
    7 June 2024 at 10:41 am

    Wow some journalist out their must feel like they were utterly conned today.

    So the pile on against Te Pāti Māori was led by Destiny Church, I mean if you saw the video about them talking about the money, you could have guessed.

    I'm going to go one more than Martyn over at the daily blog – the double standard and racist whistle blowing is the real story here.

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2024/06/07/the-double-standard-crucifixion-of-maori-party/

    The fact our so called independent media can go all feral at Te Pāti Māori and yet let the governments open corruption slide, Is the story. If the so called independent media whinge again about media trust, they might just wanna stop for a second.

    This issue should have been left to be investigated, then we should have been informed of the outcome.

    Not played out as more dirty politics, and a pile on from a collection of Mammon devotees.

    Te Pāti MāoriPāti Māori

  6. Visubversa 6
    7 June 2024 at 11:36 am

    The main question will be – did they photocopy any part of the Census to use for making political contacts?

    Having been a Census collector in the past and signed the relevant security documents, I know that is the legal point here.

    Nobody cares that they gave out ice creams or food vouchers to get people to complete the Census. There is nothing unlawful in that. However, if any part of the Census was copied – and utilised for another purpose – that is what is required to be addressed.

    • weka 6.1
      7 June 2024 at 11:46 am

      This.

      And whether there was voter influencing. I haven't seen a clear timeline yet on that.

      • Michael Scott 6.1.1
        7 June 2024 at 12:54 pm

        The Marae agree they gave out free stuff to voters on voting day which seems dodgy as their former chief executive was standing in the contest.

        Does anyone know how to get the vote numbers for the Manurewa Marae booth and compare how many the Te Paati Maori candidate got compared with the surrounding booths?

        • Grey Area 6.1.1.1
          7 June 2024 at 1:29 pm

          It's really easy. Go to the electoral commission website, find election 2023 results, select the electorate and you download a CSV format file of voting results for candidate and party votes for each polling place in the electorate. Can't recall if it separates for general and Maori roll but I didn't find it difficult when I did some local research.

          • Craig H 6.1.1.1.1
            8 June 2024 at 5:31 pm

            It effectively does by having separate results by general and Maori electorate since those are separate by roll.

        • weka 6.1.1.2
          7 June 2024 at 1:39 pm

          I've removed your email address from the URL field, please don't put it in there as it is public.

          • Michael Scott 6.1.1.3.1
            7 June 2024 at 2:01 pm

            Thanks Joe90 I tried to open the CSV file but can't.

            On reflection even if the Maori Party candidate did get a higher percentage of votes at The Marae booth it might not be treating. Simply that the Marae members had a relationship with the candidate because she was previously in charge of the Marae.

            I don't think the Electoral Commission will let this happen again.

            It is interesting how quiet the Maori Party is on all this.

            • joe90 6.1.1.3.1.1
              7 June 2024 at 2:34 pm

              Use the html link.

            • weka 6.1.1.3.1.2
              7 June 2024 at 2:52 pm

              The Independent Electoral Review recommended repealing the treating section of the legislation,

              Treating

              1. 18.15 The Electoral Commission has previously raised specific concerns with the offence of “treating”. Treating is when someone provides food, drink or entertainment before, during, or after an election for the purpose of “corruptly” influencing aperson to vote or refrain from voting. It is also an offence to corruptly accept food, drink or entertainment under these conditions. There is an exception for “the provision of a light supper after any election meeting”.10
              2. 18.16 The offence of treating creates many problems and confusion in practice.11 It is unclear how much food, drink and entertainment can be offered or accepted and under what circumstances. This lack of clarity might mean that such great care is taken not to treat voters that it prevents behaviour that is acceptable, such as providing ordinary hospitality. In particular, the current offence fails to acknowledge manaakitanga, where hospitality shows connection, kindness and respect in Māori culture. Hospitality is also important in many other cultures.
              3. 18.17 The offence of treating also requires a corrupt intent, which can be difficult to prove. In its submission to our first consultation, the Electoral Commission indicated its view that there would need to be an understanding or contract in place that voters would vote in a certain way to provide sufficient evidence that the offence of treating had been committed. Providing voters with food, drink and entertainment without the necessary corrupt bargain is legal, adding further confusion about what is allowed.

              https://ndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz/webarchive/20240119114109/https://electoralreview.govt.nz/publications/

              • AB …
                7 June 2024 at 3:33 pm

                Not altogether surprising that providing low-level hospitality and the collective sharing of food by predominantly poorer cultural minorities is outlawed as 'treating' – while individual donations of very large sums of money by wealthy individuals in the hope of influencing policy is all fine, provided it's declared. In the USA, the latter even attains the laudable and noble heights of 'free speech'.

                • weka …
                  7 June 2024 at 5:37 pm

                  pretty much.

                  I can't see the problem. The only things that stood out for me when I read the original piece the other day were the photocopying of records, and whether they were putting TPM fliers in packs at the wrong time/process. I'm also unclear on the timing of the candidate and when she stepped down as CEO. Hoping someone does a timeline.

                • joe90 …
                  7 June 2024 at 5:50 pm

                  providing low-level hospitality

                  We don't know how lucky we are.

                  .

                  A federal judge on Friday narrowed a section of Georgia election law that banned the practice of handing out food and water to voters waiting in line to cast ballots, as well as halted enforcement of a requirement that voters put their birth dates on the outer envelope of their ballots.

                  […]

                  His ruling on so-called line-warming allowed the ban to still be enforced in what he dubbed the “buffer zone” around a polling place, within 150 feet of the building where ballots are being cast. But he paused enforcement of the ban in the “supplemental zone,” or additional areas that are within 25 feet of a voter standing in line.

                  https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/18/politics/georgia-election-law-ban-food-water-voters-line/index.html

                  https://www.dictionary.com/e/politics/line-warming/

              • SPC …
                7 June 2024 at 4:16 pm

                Given how the marae operates on other weekends/at other times, it would be a stretch to say what it did on polling day was with any intent.

              • Cricklewood …
                7 June 2024 at 5:51 pm

                To be honest the Electoral commision really dropped the ball allowing the Marae to be a polling place given its leaders candiacy for TPM. It created a situation where no matter the result allegations could be thrown around and the associated murk does a whole lot of harm to everyone.

                • weka …
                  9 June 2024 at 12:44 pm

                  I don't know the area, but I agree that it's created perception issues at the least. But again, I still don't get the timeline. Did the CEO resign so she could stand? When did the Marae get chosen to be a polling place?

            • Mike the Lefty 6.1.1.3.1.3
              7 June 2024 at 3:27 pm

              Serving kai to your visitors is an important part of marae protocols. So you think they shouldn't do that because part of the building was being used as a voting booth?

            • adam 6.1.1.3.1.4
              7 June 2024 at 5:02 pm

              It is interesting how quiet the Maori Party is on all this

              FFS really, damned if you have an investigation, and damned if you don't.

              Look their is an investigation going on, a labour one. So stuck not commentating. Trolls food?

              There has been a letter of response to Andrea Vance. I’ll add a link soon, can’t find it at mo – as got as email. So lets wait and see otherwise it looks like racist dog whistle politics?

              Any help from the mods would be great appreciated. 🙂

            • joe90 6.1.1.3.1.5
              7 June 2024 at 5:10 pm

              It is interesting how quiet the Maori Party is on all this.

              nah

              /

              Te Pāti Māori co-leaders have written to police seeking an urgent investigation into allegations made against the party relating to the 2023 election campaign.

              In a statement on Friday afternoon, the party's president John Tamihere confirmed the leaders' request was sent to Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, Police Commissioner Andrew Coster, and Police Minister Mark Mitchell.

              https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/518926/te-pati-maori-seeks-investigation-president-john-tamihere-retaliates-over-data-accusations

  7. Incognito 7
    7 June 2024 at 2:49 pm

    What can we say, yet another election promise broken by National. When will it end? That’s a rhetorical question, BTW.

    https://www.politik.co.nz/national-breaks-another-health-promise/

    Good piece by Richard Harman.

  8. Joe90 8
    7 June 2024 at 3:30 pm

    D-Plus 29,22[0]1

    @rhreid

    Thousands turn out to welcome US WW2 veterans in Sainte Mere Eglise, Normandy where the 82nd Airborne jumped on D-Day.

    https://x.com/rhreid/status/1798385150301966429