Open mike 11/08/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, August 11th, 2023 - 97 comments
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97 comments on “Open mike 11/08/2023 ”

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  1. Dennis Frank 1
    11 August 2023 at 7:15 am

    The PM doesn't understand his agriculture minister, who said “We probably don’t have enough tax in this country”.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/somewhat-convoluted-pm-confronts-ministers-claim-there-isnt-enough-tax-in-new-zealand/2XEBBRY7IBFTPANBRW7RASO7CE/

    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins believes Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s claim New Zealand doesn’t have enough tax is being taken out of context. He also denies footage of O’Connor making the comment was withheld by the Government even as the Meat Industry Association, which organised the event O’Connor was speaking at, allege O’Connor’s office declined the association’s request to release the footage.

    O’Connor appeared in a political debate with National’s agriculture and trade spokesman Todd McClay at the Red Meat Sector Conference on Sunday night.

    During a Q+A with the crowd, a self-described sheep and beef farmer from Eketāhuna asked how the red meat sector might be affected by a wealth tax, which had been proposed by the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori – two parties that, on current polling, Labour would likely need to form a government.

    So looks like the PM is seeking to evade the truth. Only extremely weak men do that. His biological signalling to the nation is likely to be widely interpreted as admission of defeat. Winners don't do such signalling.

    • Phillip ure 1.1
      11 August 2023 at 10:47 am

      I think the conclusion can be made that hipkins lurching labour into the centre ..has been a total misreading of the mood of the left/centre left…

      Our present situation as a nation is redolent of the failures of the neoliberal-incrementalism that labour has clung to since the days of douglas…

      It is all coming to the conclusions long predicted by critics of that poxy ideology…

      The rich have got so much richer…the poor have got so much poorer..

      And our institutions of our society are in many cases falling apart…showing the results of that neoliberal-incrementalism having been applied to them for those preceeding decades…

      And many now know those above realities…and know we can't just continue doing the same things..and expect different outcomes ..

      All of the rest of us know that the rich have become obscenely rich..and that they pay f*ck all tax…and have been laughing all the way to the bank…while things just get worse for the rest of us..

      Hipkins has failed to read this mood..

      We are now looking to politicians to fix what ails us ..and all we see from hipkins is a face blank to our wants..

      (Who has now resorted to muldoonist think big bullshit..wot with his tunnel dreams…)

      And I know labour have yet to release their election policies…and hipkins could still pull a flock of rabbits out of his hat..

      But I fear that tax off fruit/veg could be it/their big bang policy..

      And if it is..it will be nowhere near enough..

      And I know that their are many in labour who know the party has to swivel to a democratic socialism brace of policies/ideas..for both it's own..and the countries sake .

      And good on them..!..more power to them..!..and they should be in the ascendant…but hipkins has shut all that down..to his/labour's peril..

    • Corey 1.2
      11 August 2023 at 2:03 pm

      What's wrong with Damien O'Connors statement? I have more of a problem with the PMs response to the statement, which as usual uses a lot of words to say nothing at all.

      Study after study has shown NZ has a taxation issue and for an extremely earthquake, volcanic and flood prone set of islands subject to whatever weather and sea currents are playing out in the Pacific that's a problem.

      the rebuilds for the north island and Christchurch are astronomical and we never talk seriously about how to pay for them, imagine if we had another Christchurch level event in Wellington? We simply couldn't pay for it. Hell we still haven't fixed CHCH.

      I usually defend journalists but Ryan Bridge's interview with the Pm was disgraceful, smarmy rich prick from a family of money vibes just oozes out of him.

      Him and everyone like him would be absolutely happy with bankrupting the country from borrowing to pay for a rebuild to a natural disaster but heaven forbid he pay a cent more in tax

      The PM just sucks… At everything… In these interviews he always comes off as a man of no ideology, principles or political beliefs, he just uses loads and loads of words to say nothing.

      Not once have I ever seen this prime minister seriously challenge a tory journo when they are attacking the most modest basic center left position, Hipkins will just say lots of words and pretty much agree with the tory journo and say "wait and see" and he increasingly speaks like a president with "I have decided" "me" statements rather than a prime Minister "we have decided"

      A man of no conviction, unwilling to stand up for the most modest left wing belief…

      It's no wonder most people think he's full of shit. He's so ideology free he could lead national and it wouldn't shock anyone

      • Dennis Frank 1.2.1
        11 August 2023 at 4:24 pm

        I suspect he got spooked by Damien telling the truth – so un-Labour-like it almost seems subversive from such a conservative chappie. Anyone with half a working brain will have instantly correlated his statement with Parker's diffident ditching of his revenue portfolio, not to mention Grant's collaboration with him.

        One or two journos have been speculating re cabinet division. After somnambulating for three years I doubt if any of them are capable of being that activist. Deep state theorists will be presuming they have been relentless in underperforming due to a directive from on high that they need to toss the baton to the Nats this time. Luxon needs their help due to incessant harping not working well for him.

        Hipkins deserves credit for copying Ardern's captain's call on tax policy – divine right to rule hasn't been trendy for quite a while so the two of them trying to force the beast in thro the back door is an ongoing source of entertainment. Trying to teach thicko Labourites that the leader doesn't need a cabinet to make collective decisions is excellent subversion of democracy – but they're too thick to get it fast.

        Helen Clark ought to give the two credit for their strategy of making Labour PMs seem presidential. She could point out that Lange started it, unilaterally jerking the rug from under the rogernomes in the new year of '88. However you may have been a little to hard on Hipkins re conviction/ideology, Corey. I suspect he is adhering to the neolib prescription like a limpet due to personal conviction that Thatcher's `no alternative' dictum is the correct ideological line to follow.

  2. KS 2
    11 August 2023 at 7:27 am

    Interesting times

    Rogan: No one is going to run against Trump on the Republican side and win because you are not going to get the Trump supporters… The fact that he was the President for four years, and the country was in a great economic situation

    https://t.me/My21wire/12846

    Unemployment was down. Business was booming. Regulations were being relaxed. More things were getting done.

    When you look at the Russia collusion. When you look at the Steele dossier. When you look at all the bullshit, they tried to throw at him that we now know is bullshit.

    Not just bullshit, but coordinated bullshit. When you look at the fact that they suppressed this Hunter Biden laptop story.

    And 51 intelligence agency representatives signed off on that to say that this is Russian disinformation, which we know they know is not true. That's scary.

    Because now you have the intelligence agencies colluding to keep a guy from being president, who was president during a time when the country was thriving economically."

    [You have changed your username. We don’t generally allow this, but if you want to do this once, please let me know that this is now the username you will use going forward or if you want to go back to the previous one. In premod until I get a response. Also, I fixed the typo in your email address, please check each time your fill it in again – weka]

    • weka 2.1
      11 August 2023 at 9:53 am

      mod note, you are in premod until you respond.

    • weka 2.2
      11 August 2023 at 9:57 am

      Also, it's unclear whether the words in your comment are yours, Rogan's, or someone else's. Please see how other people make quotes clear on TS for comments going forward.

    • KS 2.3
      9 September 2023 at 9:40 am

      Hi Weka,

      Just got chewed out by Iprent and Incognito for not following policy (some thing about me being a dickhead – laugh). Fair comments from them as your all busy people. I will have a read of the policy and improve my posts.

      As for name change, yes please keep KS

  3. Dennis Frank 3
    11 August 2023 at 7:53 am

    It's time for all good christians to come to the aid of the party. Which party though?

    A former National Party Cabinet minister will tomorrow enter the election fray with a Christian party. Alfred Ngaro was a minister in the Bill English Government but says none of the political parties running for office this year fully embrace the Christian ethic.

    Ngaro admits it’s late to be launching a party but says the plan is to launch it like a rocket. To a suggestion that his party could drag votes away from National, which he represented for nine years in Parliament, Ngaro was philosophic. “It’s about what’s right and what’s wrong; that’s what people are saying. I’m a centrist, and that’s where I will always sit."

    Go Alfred! Fire that rocket! Suck enough votes out of National & folks will call you Alfred the Great!

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-former-national-party-minister-alfred-ngaro-set-to-launch-new-christian-party/LA6PRUVYPNBXLOIZVJDCOA55GI/

    • Cricklewood 3.1
      11 August 2023 at 8:28 am

      Can see him picking up a chunk of vote out of South Auckland tbh, Luxon is probably fairly attractive to the Christian vote.

    • Res Publica 3.2
      11 August 2023 at 9:21 am

      If there was a legitimate constituency for an explicitly Christian conservative party in New Zealand, surely one would have succeeded by now.

      Just ask:

      Christian Heritage (1.35% and 0.12%)

      Destiny New Zealand (0.62%)

      The Kiwi Party (0.54%)

      Family Party (0.35%)

      Conservative Party (2.65%, 3.97%, and 0.2%)

      Clearly, these yahoos can't count.

  4. Blazer 4
    11 August 2023 at 9:11 am

    A reference to 'Dirty politics' today reminded me of the conspiracy theory,theory.

    P.M John Key said Hagars revelations were a 'lefty conspiracy'.

    People who buy into conspiracy theories are often characterised as gullible,easily manipulated,fools.

    The term 'conspiracy theory' was the C.I.A's go to response to alternative viewpoints regarding geo political events .From around the the time of JFK's assassination ,to the present day, it became a standard response to anyone questioning the establishment version .

    Even today in 2023, the findings regarding JFK's murder remain …classified.

    Nothing to hide,nothing to….fear!Right?

    • Phillip ure 4.1
      11 August 2023 at 10:16 am

      My favourite jfk-theory is the mafia one..

      Y'see it was a close vote..and the story goes that his father used his connections from his time as a bootlegger running alcohol into america from canada..to approach them to do all they could to get the vote out for his son… promising in return that under his presidency they would be largely left alone..

      So they did..and their influence was particularly effective/important in Illinois..a state they largely controlled..where kennedy just squeaked in..

      But then kennedy set up a special commission to target the mafia…run by his brother..

      So they whacked them both..'cos my understanding is that you don't really want to do stuff like that to the mafia…

      (Roberts assassin was a low ranking gangster guy..)

      And as a theory..I reckon it hangs together quite well..

      (And the fact the official findings are still classified.. pretty much demolishes the oswald alone official explanation..)

    • Ngungukai 4.2
      11 August 2023 at 11:27 pm

      John Key wouldn't know what is left and what is right basically a Snake Oil Salesperson IMHO ?

  5. Ad 5
    11 August 2023 at 9:32 am

    Good to see the Sackler deal chucked out by the US Supreme Court.

    Hopefully that evil family will have to give evidence alongside opioid addicts.

    • ianmac 5.1
      11 August 2023 at 9:46 am

      Also in the Washington Post today. Fancy Seymour being a shining light for American Libertarians.

      Populist conservatism has been on the march around the globe in recent years. But in New Zealand, many conservatives are beginning to embrace an old ideology: libertarianism.

      This surprising trend is thanks to David Seymour, leader of New Zealand’s classically liberal ACT Party. He has rapidly transformed his faction from a nearly extinct institution to a vibrant, growing movement, setting an example for conservatives worldwide.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/10/new-zealand-act-party-seymour-libertarianism/

      • Sabine 5.1.1
        11 August 2023 at 10:25 am

        Oh, but you forgot the Libertarian Party in Germany that is currently part of the Ample coalition. FDP. The Yellow party among the red SPD and green Green.

        • arkie 5.1.1.1
          11 August 2023 at 10:43 am

          The FDP is a liberal party, much like our Labour/National, the PDV is the German libertarian party and equivalent to ACT.

          • Sabine 5.1.1.1.1
            11 August 2023 at 2:22 pm

            PDV is a 'libertarian' Party that was birthed in 2009 and died failing to thrive.

            FDP, Free Democratic Party of Germany however is a bit more successful, aking to ACT, by appearing somewhat reasonable in regards to the excesses of the main parties.

            Libertarian parties can have a 'progressive' bend, see Seymour supporting the Self ID bill for example, and euthanasia, and if enough money is involved the next thing i can see him support is the legalisation of drugs.

            The best foreign Minister Germany ever had came from the FDP, the Free Democratic Party of Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Dietrich_Genscher

  6. Karl Sinclair 6
    11 August 2023 at 9:41 am

    Interesting times…. Don’t tell me …. The Democrates are good guys…No conspiracy here

    NZincs political class (Nats, Lab, Act, Greens) are a bunch of suck ups ….

    https://t.me/My21wire/12846

    💢Rogan: No one is going to run against Trump on the Republican side and win because you are not going to get the Trump supporters… The fact that he was the President for four years, and the country was in a great economic situation

    Unemployment was down. Business was booming. Regulations were being relaxed. More things were getting done.

    When you look at the Russia collusion. When you look at the Steele dossier. When you look at all the bullshit, they tried to throw at him that we now know is bullshit.

    Not just bullshit, but coordinated bullshit. When you look at the fact that they suppressed this Hunter Biden laptop story.

    And 51 intelligence agency representatives signed off on that to say that this is Russian disinformation, which we know they know is not true. That's scary.

    Because now you have the intelligence agencies colluding to keep a guy from being president, who was president during a time when the country was thriving economically."

  7. Belladonna 7
    11 August 2023 at 10:19 am

    This is a couple of days old – so apologies if it's already been posted, but Audrey Young has done a couple of articles on what a Left or Right cabinet might look like after October.

    Yes, of course it's speculative – but interesting to see opinions on which areas the minor parties might stake out, and who might be scheduled for promotion, or demotion.

    Originally published in the Herald – but paywalled – so here are the archived links as well.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-audrey-young-the-cabinet-under-a-labour-greens-maori-party-govt/2A3DZDXW4BGL3CFPXH6PHBEDJU/

    https://archive.ph/WGET5

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-audrey-young-what-a-national-act-cabinet-might-look-like/YSR5VCYMA5G5HGJCVTNR3YEO4Q/

    https://archive.ph/hD4j8

    • weka 7.1
      11 August 2023 at 10:39 am

      Interesting, thanks. The only really bum note is Genter as associate transport and outside of cabinet.

      Also, completely different ball game if the Greens say the wealth tax is a bottom line.

      • Belladonna 7.1.1
        11 August 2023 at 10:54 am

        Entirely possible that Parker (who Young tapped as Transport) may retire during the term – thus freeing up Transport (certainly Halbert – who has been chairing the Transport & Infrastructure Committee – and who might be seen as a replacement — hasn't exactly been outstanding in this role)

        Of course, negotiations – including over party bottom lines – might change things substantively (e.g. Hipkins would probably have to go as PM, if the GP negotiated wealth tax as a bottom line).

        • weka 7.1.1.1
          11 August 2023 at 10:55 am

          Who does Labour have to replace Hipkins?

          • Belladonna 7.1.1.1.1
            11 August 2023 at 11:10 am

            Entirely without prejudice.

            I'd see that Parker distancing himself from Hipkins over tax could be seen as a signal to both the left wing (in general) and the left wing of the LP, that there is an alternative.

            I don't see Parker, myself, as leadership material (and he's ruled it out himself a couple of times) – but he could well be the money man (Finance).

            Prior to Wood's spectacular self-destruction – I'd seen him as pre-positioning himself for a run at the top job in the next few years. But October would be way too soon for him to have remedied his blotted copybook.

            I'd also seen Allan as a strong candidate as deputy. But, well off the cards for the next few years (if she ever comes back to politics)

            McAnulty has done well – but perhaps not enough experience yet.

            The solid, competent and capable performer is Megan Woods. She's been carrying at least two people's ministerial workload and is all over the detail of her portfolios, is a solid performer in the house, and is quick-witted, persuasive and articulate in interviews (unlike Little, for example, who came across as dour and dogged). I wouldn't be surprised to see her emerge as a front contender.

          • Craig H 7.1.1.1.2
            11 August 2023 at 11:20 am

            Leaving aside questions about whether any particular individual would be interested, Parker and Little are former Labour leaders, Robertson a former Deputy PM and Sepuloni is the current Deputy PM. Davis is the deputy party leader so would also be someone to consider. From the rest of Cabinet, Woods would be the stand out and Tinetti and Verrall also stand out to me in terms of experience with big portfolios.

        • Peter 7.1.1.2
          11 August 2023 at 11:18 am

          Parker retiring during the term? You mean before October?

          • Belladonna 7.1.1.2.1
            11 August 2023 at 11:27 am

            Nope – the reference was to the formation of a Government in the next term.

            And the speculation that Parker would retire during that term. Obviously, if he gains a high cabinet post, then that's less likely – but if he's continuing in a mid-level one, and ongoing tension with Hipkins over wealth tax – then it seems much more likely.

  8. Patricia Bremner 8
    11 August 2023 at 10:21 am

    Talbot Mills does not agree with Curia. Who'd a thunk!!devil

    • Anne 8.1
      11 August 2023 at 10:29 am

      When the new polls are published Curia usually has National's numbers higher than the rest. David Farrer maintains their methodology is among the best so there must be another reason for it. 😀

    • Belladonna 8.2
      11 August 2023 at 10:34 am

      Talbot Mills doesn't seem to have released a recent poll – the last one I can find of theirs is end June-beginning of July.

      Unless you have a link to a more recent one – or have some private information.

      That poll, interestingly, has almost identical results for Labour to the Curia one taken over the same period – and the TM one has a higher result for National.

      • Anne 8.2.1
        11 August 2023 at 10:39 am

        The key word is "usually". I'm talking in an historical sense. It has been noted many times over the years including by journalists – always in a slightly amused vein. 🙂

        • Belladonna 8.2.1.1
          11 August 2023 at 10:41 am

          Evidence. Because you seem to have none….
          Perhaps a link to an article by these 'amused journalists'….

          • Anne 8.2.1.1.1
            11 August 2023 at 5:00 pm

            Your constant calls for evidence is boring. No way am I going back over 20-30 years of newspapers to satisfy your lust for links on comments you don't like.

            Based on such an attitude, no-one would be able to offer any reflection on past events. History as we know it would become obsolete. 🙄

            • Belladonna 8.2.1.1.1.1
              11 August 2023 at 5:34 pm

              So – no evidence. A complete invention on your part.

              Even when it is pointed out to you (with evidence) that your statement is certainly not true ATM; you double down, and insist that it must have been true sometime in the past – again with no evidence.

              Your inventions and evasions are considerably more boring – and frankly, dishonest.

              And, you seem to have missed the requirement, being enforced much more rigorously in the run up to the election – that evidence must be provided if called for on TS.

              • alwyn …
                11 August 2023 at 6:18 pm

                " that evidence must be provided if called for on TS.".

                Really?

                • Belladonna …
                  11 August 2023 at 6:22 pm

                  Yep. Here
                  Scroll down to “Providing evidence”

                  https://thestandard.org.nz/moderation-notes-in-election-year/

                  • alwyn …
                    11 August 2023 at 6:50 pm

                    That appears to be only if you are asked by a moderator. Under the bit on current problems in the link you provided it says "and providing evidence when asked by a moderator"

                    If the moderator doesn't take action it can, as Anne is doing, be ignored.

                    • SPC …
                      11 August 2023 at 6:58 pm

                      Site policy.

                      We don’t generally expect people to provide evidence every single time they say something, some things are well known and don’t need backing up. But you do have to provide evidence when asked (see policy quote above).

                      Evidence guidelines

                      Providing evidence needs to be in a way that is easily accessible to authors, moderators, readers and commenters. These are the guidelines I currently use and expect people to meet,

                      • an explanation of your point
                      • with a quote/s to back it up
                      • and a link to where that quote came from

                      An example of which, is that the sea salt has to be behind the mustard when the ball is passed to be onside.

                      It's a quote, from a film, so a link to the film from which the quote came was provided.

                      See 14 below.

                      It’s an expectation, with the possible consequence of moderator interest in the lack of.

              • observer …
                11 August 2023 at 7:09 pm

                Why do you say "complete invention" when you could find it online in 5 seconds? I just did.

                https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300948107/labours-new-polling-shows-rosier-picture-for-party

                • Belladonna …
                  11 August 2023 at 7:20 pm
                  1. Patricia did not provide a link to this information in her original post – although I asked for it. The fact that you can find it online in 5 seconds now, has nothing to do with the fact that it may not have been published when I was looking – much earlier in the day.

                  2. "Complete invention" refers to Anne's statement. "When the new polls are published Curia usually has National's numbers higher than the rest."

                  I asked for evidence for her statement – providing a link to the reported polling data for this year – to show that it did not appear to be true.

                  Note that 'usually' in common English would have to reflect at least 50% of the time – and probably quite a bit higher.

                  • observer …
                    11 August 2023 at 7:23 pm

                    Check the link. It was published at 8 am. See the time of the (many) comments.

                    You didn't find it, but that's nobody else's fault.

                    • Belladonna …
                      11 August 2023 at 7:30 pm

                      Nope. I said I couldn't find it – and asked for a link.

                      That's why best TS practice is for the original commenter to provide a link to the story they are commenting on.

                  • Patricia Bremner …
                    11 August 2023 at 8:38 pm

                    Apologies Belladonna. And to Anne.yes

                  • Incognito …
                    11 August 2023 at 9:07 pm

                    Using the Wikipedia link you provided @ 8.1.1, there have been 24 Curia polls since the last election, as far as I can tell.

                    13/23 of the Curia polls were higher than the subsequent poll (in that table) by an average of ca. 0.6%.

                    14/24 of the Curia polls were higher than the preceding poll (in that table) by an average of ca. 1.0%.

                    None of this is terribly meaningful, in my opinion, and not worth wasting much time & effort on.

                    These figures relate to the polling of National, of course.

                    • adam …
                      11 August 2023 at 9:18 pm

                      Question incognito?

                      Do you think the quantity of polls is putting off working class and poor voters?

                      For me, this slew of them is making me spew. I'm still trying to get people enrolled, and the polls are just fluff, a real distraction. And at worst, they feel like a manipulation.

                    • Incognito []
                      11 August 2023 at 9:29 pm

                      No, I don’t think that polls on their own and by themselves put off people/voters. Same applies to politics in general.

                • Patricia Bremner …
                  11 August 2023 at 7:48 pm

                  Thank you Observer.yes

              • Anne …
                11 August 2023 at 8:41 pm

                So – no evidence. A complete invention on your part.

                Even when it is pointed out to you (with evidence) that your statement is certainly not true ATM;

                Your arrogance is mind boggling Belladonna.

                This 'fact' has been mentioned on this site by numerous commenters over the years which you would not know about because you are a newcomer. In the past I also saw it reflected upon on a few other public forums. Don’t ask me where because I've forgotten now. That does not mean they don't exist.

                NO. I am not going to trawl through thousands upon thousands of comments to satisfy your desire to be the dominant force on this site.

                • Drowsy M. Kram …
                  12 August 2023 at 10:48 am

                  Bd has my sympathy for the 'tricky' choices that political centrists face.

                  Zen and the art of motorway maintenance [7 August 2023]
                  In this sense the pothole is a good symbol how of this election is proceeding. There are itches all around the body politic that demand scratching. In the moment we are far more aware of them than we are of the tumour quietly growing inside, the virus caught but not yet symptomatic, the vehicle crash that awaits around the corner, the fire about to engulf our home. The snake oil retailers draw attention to the easy solutions to the surface and immediate issues and we are often only too willing to reward them for it.

                  If only that nice Mr Key had made good on his 2008 election promise to close the gap between Kiwi and Aussie wages. Another flood of Kiwis crossing the ditch (to a country with an even earlier Overshoot Day than Aotearoa NZ) may be looming.

                  https://www.overshootday.org/newsroom/country-overshoot-days/


                  The Dominion Post newspaper reported that while Economic Development Minister, Gerry Brownlee, was saying the wage gap had reduced since his party came into office, figures it obtained comparing average weekly earnings in November 2008 and February this year (2010) showed New Zealand wages grew by 5.2 per cent compared to 6.17 per cent for Australia. Australia's ordinary average wage rose from A$1165 to A$1243 ($1433 to $1529) while New Zealand's went from $891 to $947. One of John Key's election promises was to 'close the gap'.

                  https://tiaki.natlib.govt.nz/#details=ecatalogue.590892

                  • Anne …
                    12 August 2023 at 5:53 pm

                    "…. the 'tricky' choices that political centrists face."

                    Sitting on the fence must be very boring and extraordinarily uncomfortable.

            • Cricklewood 8.2.1.1.1.2
              11 August 2023 at 7:08 pm

              Maybe you should stop making shit up…

        • Anne 8.2.1.2
          11 August 2023 at 10:45 am

          There are two election campaigns being waged at present.

          The first is the campaign between the Nats and Lab for the top spot.

          The second between the Nats, ACT and NZ First.

          The second one is the most interesting and amusing:

          https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-winston-peters-claims-acts-attack-ad-proves-the-party-is-worried/SMF7GX52VJFWHE6CJGQADYLJYI/

    • Sanctuary 8.3
      11 August 2023 at 12:52 pm

      Without knowing what methodology the polls use to address the undecided & unlikely to vote it's hard to know what to make of such huge disparities in the polling, they seem outside the margin of error – and remember all polling methods nowadays seem to be unable to overcome an inherent bias to the right (if the last few actual election results are any guide).

      Still, the trend for Labour is down. Hipkins needs to come up with something more than insipid "prudent" centrist managerialism in the next few weeks to win back voters moving to non-voting, NZ First or the Greens. Labour needs a circuit breaker policy – some sort of mega extension of middle class welfare might do the job, but I would prefer a tax free threshold on income somehwere in the range of $10-20,000.

    • SPC 8.4
      11 August 2023 at 7:27 pm

      At this point the question is, are the Talbot Mills polls for the Labour Party done on the same basis as the ones released to the wider public?

      And … are they done to coincide with another poll (say Curia) ….

      • Belladonna 8.4.1
        11 August 2023 at 7:37 pm

        Apparently, the regular TM polls are not done for the Labour Party, but for one or more 'corporate clients'.

        And are 'leaked' rather than released. [I have to say, that given that they are leaked every time, they should just bite the bullet and release them officially]

        From the coverage of the last one…

        Talbot Mills contacted 1036 people between June 28 and July 2. The poll has a margin of error of 3 per cent. The poll is produced for Talbot Mills’ corporate clients. The company also conducts Labour’s internal poll.

        https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-and-chris-hipkins-crash-in-latest-poll-gap-with-national-widest-since-2017/R6MWQK2TQBGK5FY3ZKOEYGVYPU/

        I don’t know anything about the basis for Labour’s internal polling (or National’s for that matter)

      • Anne 8.4.2
        11 August 2023 at 7:43 pm

        From memory they often do coincide but whether that is intentional is hard to say. Bearing in mind they have to conduct the poll which could take a few days and then collate the results, I think they follow a similar time-span especially at this time in the election cycle.

        As far as I know Talbot Mills polls are commissioned by industrial and business communities. I guess each group highlight the information they require, including the Labour Party, so they might not be done on the same basis.

        Just my thoughts on what I recall happening over the years.

  9. Dennis Frank 9
    11 August 2023 at 10:29 am

    Causal analysis of the Maui disaster here: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/10/us/factors-fueling-maui-fires-climate/index.html

    Precondition: drought. Result: tinderbox. Unknown: spark. Scaling up factor: Dora to the south + anticyclone to the north = wind vortex between them.

    Elemental analysis gives us a tetrad: drought/drying out/combustion/conflagaration.

    Chaos theory taught us that two adjacent domains that are complex systems produce creative catalysis at the boundary where their influences balance out 30 years ago. Both scientists & opinion leaders have failed to get the picture ever since – even when reality clobbers them with the force of a piece of 4×2.

    Climate change is increasingly giving us scenarios like this classic Maui picture to learn from. Mainstream leaders floundering are no good for anyone. We need people who learn the lessons nature is trying to teach us.

  10. Sanctuary 10
    11 August 2023 at 11:52 am

    China is discovering the downside of a slide to authoritarianism, autarky and a loss of investor confidence that the rule of rule will be the norm in doing business in China.

    "… foreign direct investment into China fell 89% from a year earlier in the second quarter of this year to $4.9 billion, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange…."

    89% collapse in investment year on year is huge. This the lowest in 25 years – in otherwords, for the lifespan of China's economic miracle.

    https://www.npr.org/2023/08/09/1193013362/biden-executive-order-restricts-investments-china-tech

    Perhaps the unease in China's elites at Xi's policies is behind the mysterious sacking of foreign minister Qin Gang, Xi's hand picked man for the job.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/28/chinas-missing-ex-minister-reveals-the-limits-of-xi-jinpings-power

    • Blazer 10.1
      11 August 2023 at 12:02 pm

      4.9 billion or even 8 billion is no big deal in context.

      'The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China was worth 17963.17 billion US dollars in 2022, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of China represents 7.97 percent of the world economy.'

      I think Ukraine receives more than 4.9billion a month to fight the 'good' fight.

      • Sanctuary 10.1.1
        11 August 2023 at 12:42 pm

        That is just nonsense. China has fallen into deflation and everyone knows the figures from Chinese economists are doctored up the wazoo – According to Bloomberg & Fortune (paywalled, although you can easily Google the headline) the already disasterous official youth unemplyment rate of 21.3% could actually be double that.

        China has very high local government debt – so they can't use that to stimulate their way out of trouble like they did after the GFC. High debt and deflation are major headwinds, and China is far to dependent on export receipts (17% or so of GDP, the United States is about half that) fto achieve anything like the autarky that the United States has in it's economy for trying to stimulate growth. Putin’s mad invasion of the Ukraine is a disaster for China, because it has alerted the USA and EU to how hollowed out their own heavy industry base has become and led directly to economic measures to booset that base – which is a direct cost to China.

        The main take away for me is an economic slow down in China brought on my Xi's hardline approach will be very destabilising, and probably very bad for NZ.

        • Blazer 10.1.1.1
          11 August 2023 at 1:50 pm

          So World Bank data is 'nonsense' – very good!

          Dependent on export receipts!

          17% is alot lower than I thought.

          We know NZ is a trading nation which runs an 'open economy. How dependent are we.

          Talking about debt, the U. S has a meaningless debt ceiling, that gets raised every year and has trillions of unpayable exposure. It would be a complete basket case apart from its privilege as default currency for international trade.

          The world is tired of subsidising US hegemony and the desire to challenge it is accelerating.

          China has merely responded to tariffs and military threats imposed by America.

          • Ad 10.1.1.1.1
            11 August 2023 at 2:47 pm

            We are but a single armhair shivering on the inhaled breath of China.

            About 1/4 of our entire export income (agriculture and tourism) comes from China, about US$16 billion.

            China exports US$3.7 trillion a year to the world, growing 4.51% from 2021 to 2022.

            We mean almost nothing to them. They mean a helluva lot to us.

            • bwaghorn 10.1.1.1.1.1
              11 August 2023 at 4:36 pm

              That income is tanking btw, lambs back $2 kg and mutton $2.50 on this time last year, might be an election worth losing!

  11. Kat 11
    11 August 2023 at 11:59 am

    Key admits he has some political bias……but then…Luxon and Seymour will squirm at this:

    "……compared to the rest of the world, the international director, former Prime Minister and National Party leader said New Zealand was “pretty darn good”.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/pretty-darn-good-sir-john-key-upbeat-despite-debt-stress-chinas-economy/A7D6QO6HTFCKTMJ7CBLX56EQ34/

    • Blazer 11.1
      11 August 2023 at 12:05 pm

      Can anyone remember a time when Australia was NOT doing better than us!

      5x our population and the mining sector alone earns more than NZ's total GDP.

      • Kat 11.1.1
        11 August 2023 at 12:17 pm

        Economically Australia is less "boom and bust" than NZ…..then there is the politics….

        Key goes on to say: “It’s a feeling that we’re in a malaise, that we’re not doing that well. That Australia’s doing better than us.”

        This is the politics, the general perception that the opposition have been cultivating, during and since the Pandemic……which by the way now seems to be conveniently ignored as any influence at all….

  12. adam 12
    11 August 2023 at 12:06 pm

    78 years since the dropping of nukes on Japan.

    Good job by peace activists -non-violent direct action.

    • joe90 12.1
      11 August 2023 at 12:43 pm

      Looking forward to their non-violent direct action to mark 86 years since Imperial Japan began the systemic murder of 200,000 – 300,000 residents of Nanjing.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contest_to_kill_100_people_using_a_sword

      • Sanctuary 12.1.1
        11 August 2023 at 1:02 pm

        I don't have a problem with that protest, I mean my take is they can still protest and just get away with a severe telling off and a conviction.

        I question the relevance though, the use of nuclear weapons on Japan occurred eight decades ago now against the background of a global total war where the Axis were guilty of unspeakable acts of barbarism.

        These days the people most likely to rattle the nuclear sabre are the likes of Dmitry Menvedev, who seems to enjoy getting stuck into his liquor cabinet and then posting wild threats of nuclear armageddon on his social media – which is exactly the sort of behaviour one would want from a senior politician of any major power with a massive nuclear stockpile /sarc/

        • Blazer 12.1.1.1
          11 August 2023 at 1:55 pm

          So 'they asked for it' did they.

          You need to brush up on the Great Satan's record of death and destruction since WW2.

          They even brought back… torture.

          • Sanctuary 12.1.1.1.1
            11 August 2023 at 2:55 pm

            The Japanese were pretty much the dictionary definition of "they were asking for it".

            You know what they say – don't start what you can't finish, and if you decide to throw away any restraints on your behaviour and engage in barbarism you had better be 100% sure the other side don't get into a position to return the favour with interest, because you can be sure they’ll do so with alacrity.

            • Blazer 12.1.1.1.1.1
              11 August 2023 at 3:46 pm

              Interesting take on innocent civilians being fried……1 bomb to learn ya….and another for good…measure!

              Do you have portraits of Atilla the Hun,Genghis Khan,George Bush,Tony Blair and Henry Kissinger hanging in your hallway?frown

            • Phillip ure 12.1.1.1.1.2
              11 August 2023 at 6:53 pm

              'they' were the innocent civilians of the two bombed cities..

              And they certainly weren't'asking for it'..

              'they' were the vassals of their emperor…

              Those bombings were war crimes most foul ..

              All america had to do was to drop one in an uninhabited area..to show the Japanese military/emperor what they could do to them ..

              They didn't need to bomb those cities..

              They didn't need to kill all those innocent men/women/children .

              They were their war crimes ..

      • adam 12.1.2
        12 August 2023 at 3:11 pm

        Sheesh anything that questions an end to war, and you jingoists come out of the wood work fast.

  13. roy cartland 13
    11 August 2023 at 12:36 pm

    I don't usually post this guy (as he's not well liked here), but this is interesting. The blockage to Green Transition is political, not technological, who knew!

    • weka 13.1
      11 August 2023 at 2:00 pm

      I've been saying this for a while, although I would say social and political as well as psychological.

    • Red Blooded One 13.2
      11 August 2023 at 3:09 pm

      Perhaps you should say who "this guy" is before you expect people to click on an unlabelled YouTube link.

    • Sabine 13.3
      11 August 2023 at 4:06 pm

      Interview on the BBC in the 80s. Why do we not invest in large numbers in public transport? answer: because we could never meet demand, and besides it is easier for us to get people to buy private transport. It just stuck with me then that we are never going to get it done properly.

      The destructing of public transport initially was political – the closure of rail lines for commercial and person transport, and the failure to revive it is also.

      Instead we have :" here have up to 8 grand to buy an EV, it will make you feel all green here as the pollution is in the lands were we mine, build and then via shipping". But its ok, you get to feel all warm and fuzzy whilst driving in your own very green and progressive country.

  14. weka 14
    11 August 2023 at 4:33 pm

    who wants to have a go at explaining the soccer offside rule to me?

    • SPC 14.1
      11 August 2023 at 5:16 pm

      It was explained in the movie Bend It Like Beckham – 1hour 10 minute 20sec – 1hour 11 min 30s – the sea salt has to be level or behind the mustard, when the ball is passed

      https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/bend-it-like-beckham/movie/s1-e1

      • weka 14.1.1
        11 August 2023 at 5:29 pm

        thanks for wasting my time SPC, fs.

        • arkie 14.1.1.1
          11 August 2023 at 5:50 pm

          It can be contentious but the gist is you can't pass a ball to a teammate if they are past the last defender when you kick it.

          It is to stop a team having their strikers just standing next to the goal waiting for the ball to be kicked up the field.

          Strikers therefore have to stay near the last defender and not get between them and the goalie unless they already have the ball or are chasing it.

    • Belladonna 14.2
      11 August 2023 at 5:50 pm

      It ain't easy, but I'll have a go….

      A player is offside:

      • When you are in the opposing team's half.
      • Not counting the goal-keeper.
      • You must have either – 1 opposing player
      • Or the ball
      • Between the most forward of your players, and the goal.
      • When (and only when) the 'offside' player touches the ball or they are deemed (by the ref) to be active in play (blocking, etc – to enable their player to have a free run at goal)

      If there is only the goalkeeper between you and the goal (and you don't have the ball) – then you are off-side – if your side is attacking, or you receive the ball.

      If you have the ball – then it doesn't matter how many players are or aren't in front of you – you can't be off-side.

      The tricky part comes with passing – when you pass the ball forward – you have to ensure that there is an opposing player (other than the goalkeeper) in front of the attacking player – to whom the ball is being passed – before they receive the ball.

      Open to correction by someone with a greater degree of experience in coaching, refing or even watching soccer than I have!

      • SPC 14.2.1
        11 August 2023 at 6:07 pm

        At the time the ball is passed, not before they receive the ball.

        The sea salt can sprint past the mustard after it is passed before they receive it and be onside.

        • Belladonna 14.2.1.1
          11 August 2023 at 6:24 pm

          I bow to your superior expertise – and I'm sure there are other nuances I've missed as well…..

    • Muttonbird 14.3
      11 August 2023 at 9:18 pm

      Visual representation might help:

      The blue player (attacker) farthest left in this image is in an offside position when their teammate with the ball kicks it because only one red player (defender) is in front of them, in this case the goal keeper. The blue player at farthest left needs to be to the right of, or behind, the dotted line (which is marked by the next closest red player to their goal) so that more than one defender is in front of them.

      Notes:

      It doesn't need to be the keeper, just any two defending players.

      It's not an offence to stand in an offside position, but it becomes an offence if you engage in play from that position.

      No offsides from a throw in.

      No offside if the ball passer is closer to the goal than the receiver (see corner kicks).

      Offside is when any ball playing part of the attacking player is in front of second last defender ie, arm is fine up to the shoulder because in football the arm is not a ball playing part of the body.

  15. georgecom 15
    11 August 2023 at 5:32 pm

    I hope Winston First gets around 4.5% of the vote come election time. Soak up some of that protest vote that might otherwise go the ACT but not sufficient for him to get back into Parliament. The other odd ball and fringe parties like conservatives, brian tamaki party, outdoors etc can take a bit from the right wing as well. A realistic outcome on election night, Labour-Greens about equal with Nat-ACT and either needing the support of Maori party. Keep the Maori Health Authority, continual work on climate change and a CGT once the government is formed

    • Ngungukai 15.1
      11 August 2023 at 11:34 pm

      Winston First will get 7-9% of the vote so long as he and Shane Jones keep their heads screwed on and don't start playing the Smart Arse Maori Tricks by letting their ultra ego's get in the way.