Prime Minister Chris Hipkins believes Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s claim New Zealand doesn’t have enough tax is being taken out of context. He also denies footage of O’Connor making the comment was withheld by the Government even as the Meat Industry Association, which organised the event O’Connor was speaking at, allege O’Connor’s office declined the association’s request to release the footage.
O’Connor appeared in a political debate with National’s agriculture and trade spokesman Todd McClay at the Red Meat Sector Conference on Sunday night.
During a Q+A with the crowd, a self-described sheep and beef farmer from Eketāhuna asked how the red meat sector might be affected by a wealth tax, which had been proposed by the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori – two parties that, on current polling, Labour would likely need to form a government.
So looks like the PM is seeking to evade the truth. Only extremely weak men do that. His biological signalling to the nation is likely to be widely interpreted as admission of defeat. Winners don't do such signalling.
I think the conclusion can be made that hipkins lurching labour into the centre ..has been a total misreading of the mood of the left/centre left…
Our present situation as a nation is redolent of the failures of the neoliberal-incrementalism that labour has clung to since the days of douglas…
It is all coming to the conclusions long predicted by critics of that poxy ideology…
The rich have got so much richer…the poor have got so much poorer..
And our institutions of our society are in many cases falling apart…showing the results of that neoliberal-incrementalism having been applied to them for those preceeding decades…
And many now know those above realities…and know we can't just continue doing the same things..and expect different outcomes ..
All of the rest of us know that the rich have become obscenely rich..and that they pay f*ck all tax…and have been laughing all the way to the bank…while things just get worse for the rest of us..
Hipkins has failed to read this mood..
We are now looking to politicians to fix what ails us ..and all we see from hipkins is a face blank to our wants..
(Who has now resorted to muldoonist think big bullshit..wot with his tunnel dreams…)
And I know labour have yet to release their election policies…and hipkins could still pull a flock of rabbits out of his hat..
But I fear that tax off fruit/veg could be it/their big bang policy..
And if it is..it will be nowhere near enough..
And I know that their are many in labour who know the party has to swivel to a democratic socialism brace of policies/ideas..for both it's own..and the countries sake .
And good on them..!..more power to them..!..and they should be in the ascendant…but hipkins has shut all that down..to his/labour's peril..
What's wrong with Damien O'Connors statement? I have more of a problem with the PMs response to the statement, which as usual uses a lot of words to say nothing at all.
Study after study has shown NZ has a taxation issue and for an extremely earthquake, volcanic and flood prone set of islands subject to whatever weather and sea currents are playing out in the Pacific that's a problem.
the rebuilds for the north island and Christchurch are astronomical and we never talk seriously about how to pay for them, imagine if we had another Christchurch level event in Wellington? We simply couldn't pay for it. Hell we still haven't fixed CHCH.
I usually defend journalists but Ryan Bridge's interview with the Pm was disgraceful, smarmy rich prick from a family of money vibes just oozes out of him.
Him and everyone like him would be absolutely happy with bankrupting the country from borrowing to pay for a rebuild to a natural disaster but heaven forbid he pay a cent more in tax
The PM just sucks… At everything… In these interviews he always comes off as a man of no ideology, principles or political beliefs, he just uses loads and loads of words to say nothing.
Not once have I ever seen this prime minister seriously challenge a tory journo when they are attacking the most modest basic center left position, Hipkins will just say lots of words and pretty much agree with the tory journo and say "wait and see" and he increasingly speaks like a president with "I have decided" "me" statements rather than a prime Minister "we have decided"
A man of no conviction, unwilling to stand up for the most modest left wing belief…
It's no wonder most people think he's full of shit. He's so ideology free he could lead national and it wouldn't shock anyone
I suspect he got spooked by Damien telling the truth – so un-Labour-like it almost seems subversive from such a conservative chappie. Anyone with half a working brain will have instantly correlated his statement with Parker's diffident ditching of his revenue portfolio, not to mention Grant's collaboration with him.
One or two journos have been speculating re cabinet division. After somnambulating for three years I doubt if any of them are capable of being that activist. Deep state theorists will be presuming they have been relentless in underperforming due to a directive from on high that they need to toss the baton to the Nats this time. Luxon needs their help due to incessant harping not working well for him.
Hipkins deserves credit for copying Ardern's captain's call on tax policy – divine right to rule hasn't been trendy for quite a while so the two of them trying to force the beast in thro the back door is an ongoing source of entertainment. Trying to teach thicko Labourites that the leader doesn't need a cabinet to make collective decisions is excellent subversion of democracy – but they're too thick to get it fast.
Helen Clark ought to give the two credit for their strategy of making Labour PMs seem presidential. She could point out that Lange started it, unilaterally jerking the rug from under the rogernomes in the new year of '88. However you may have been a little to hard on Hipkins re conviction/ideology, Corey. I suspect he is adhering to the neolib prescription like a limpet due to personal conviction that Thatcher's `no alternative' dictum is the correct ideological line to follow.
Rogan: No one is going to run against Trump on the Republican side and win because you are not going to get the Trump supporters… The fact that he was the President for four years, and the country was in a great economic situation
Unemployment was down. Business was booming. Regulations were being relaxed. More things were getting done.
When you look at the Russia collusion. When you look at the Steele dossier. When you look at all the bullshit, they tried to throw at him that we now know is bullshit.
Not just bullshit, but coordinated bullshit. When you look at the fact that they suppressed this Hunter Biden laptop story.
And 51 intelligence agency representatives signed off on that to say that this is Russian disinformation, which we know they know is not true. That's scary.
Because now you have the intelligence agencies colluding to keep a guy from being president, who was president during a time when the country was thriving economically."
[You have changed your username. We don’t generally allow this, but if you want to do this once, please let me know that this is now the username you will use going forward or if you want to go back to the previous one. In premod until I get a response. Also, I fixed the typo in your email address, please check each time your fill it in again – weka]
Also, it's unclear whether the words in your comment are yours, Rogan's, or someone else's. Please see how other people make quotes clear on TS for comments going forward.
Just got chewed out by Iprent and Incognito for not following policy (some thing about me being a dickhead – ). Fair comments from them as your all busy people. I will have a read of the policy and improve my posts.
It's time for all good christians to come to the aid of the party. Which party though?
A former National Party Cabinet minister will tomorrow enter the election fray with a Christian party. Alfred Ngaro was a minister in the Bill English Government but says none of the political parties running for office this year fully embrace the Christian ethic.
Ngaro admits it’s late to be launching a party but says the plan is to launch it like a rocket. To a suggestion that his party could drag votes away from National, which he represented for nine years in Parliament, Ngaro was philosophic. “It’s about what’s right and what’s wrong; that’s what people are saying. I’m a centrist, and that’s where I will always sit."
Go Alfred! Fire that rocket! Suck enough votes out of National & folks will call you Alfred the Great!
A reference to 'Dirty politics' today reminded me of the conspiracy theory,theory.
P.M John Key said Hagars revelations were a 'lefty conspiracy'.
People who buy into conspiracy theories are often characterised as gullible,easily manipulated,fools.
The term 'conspiracy theory' was the C.I.A's go to response to alternative viewpoints regarding geo political events .From around the the time of JFK's assassination ,to the present day, it became a standard response to anyone questioning the establishment version .
Even today in 2023, the findings regarding JFK's murder remain …classified.
Y'see it was a close vote..and the story goes that his father used his connections from his time as a bootlegger running alcohol into america from canada..to approach them to do all they could to get the vote out for his son… promising in return that under his presidency they would be largely left alone..
So they did..and their influence was particularly effective/important in Illinois..a state they largely controlled..where kennedy just squeaked in..
But then kennedy set up a special commission to target the mafia…run by his brother..
So they whacked them both..'cos my understanding is that you don't really want to do stuff like that to the mafia…
(Roberts assassin was a low ranking gangster guy..)
And as a theory..I reckon it hangs together quite well..
(And the fact the official findings are still classified.. pretty much demolishes the oswald alone official explanation..)
Also in the Washington Post today. Fancy Seymour being a shining light for American Libertarians.
Populist conservatism has been on the march around the globe in recent years. But in New Zealand, many conservatives are beginning to embrace an old ideology: libertarianism.
This surprising trend is thanks to David Seymour, leader of New Zealand’s classically liberal ACT Party. He has rapidly transformed his faction from a nearly extinct institution to a vibrant, growing movement, setting an example for conservatives worldwide.
Oh, but you forgot the Libertarian Party in Germany that is currently part of the Ample coalition. FDP. The Yellow party among the red SPD and green Green.
PDV is a 'libertarian' Party that was birthed in 2009 and died failing to thrive.
FDP, Free Democratic Party of Germany however is a bit more successful, aking to ACT, by appearing somewhat reasonable in regards to the excesses of the main parties.
Libertarian parties can have a 'progressive' bend, see Seymour supporting the Self ID bill for example, and euthanasia, and if enough money is involved the next thing i can see him support is the legalisation of drugs.
💢Rogan: No one is going to run against Trump on the Republican side and win because you are not going to get the Trump supporters… The fact that he was the President for four years, and the country was in a great economic situation
Unemployment was down. Business was booming. Regulations were being relaxed. More things were getting done.
When you look at the Russia collusion. When you look at the Steele dossier. When you look at all the bullshit, they tried to throw at him that we now know is bullshit.
Not just bullshit, but coordinated bullshit. When you look at the fact that they suppressed this Hunter Biden laptop story.
And 51 intelligence agency representatives signed off on that to say that this is Russian disinformation, which we know they know is not true. That's scary.
Because now you have the intelligence agencies colluding to keep a guy from being president, who was president during a time when the country was thriving economically."
This is a couple of days old – so apologies if it's already been posted, but Audrey Young has done a couple of articles on what a Left or Right cabinet might look like after October.
Yes, of course it's speculative – but interesting to see opinions on which areas the minor parties might stake out, and who might be scheduled for promotion, or demotion.
Originally published in the Herald – but paywalled – so here are the archived links as well.
Entirely possible that Parker (who Young tapped as Transport) may retire during the term – thus freeing up Transport (certainly Halbert – who has been chairing the Transport & Infrastructure Committee – and who might be seen as a replacement — hasn't exactly been outstanding in this role)
Of course, negotiations – including over party bottom lines – might change things substantively (e.g. Hipkins would probably have to go as PM, if the GP negotiated wealth tax as a bottom line).
I'd see that Parker distancing himself from Hipkins over tax could be seen as a signal to both the left wing (in general) and the left wing of the LP, that there is an alternative.
I don't see Parker, myself, as leadership material (and he's ruled it out himself a couple of times) – but he could well be the money man (Finance).
Prior to Wood's spectacular self-destruction – I'd seen him as pre-positioning himself for a run at the top job in the next few years. But October would be way too soon for him to have remedied his blotted copybook.
I'd also seen Allan as a strong candidate as deputy. But, well off the cards for the next few years (if she ever comes back to politics)
McAnulty has done well – but perhaps not enough experience yet.
The solid, competent and capable performer is Megan Woods. She's been carrying at least two people's ministerial workload and is all over the detail of her portfolios, is a solid performer in the house, and is quick-witted, persuasive and articulate in interviews (unlike Little, for example, who came across as dour and dogged). I wouldn't be surprised to see her emerge as a front contender.
Leaving aside questions about whether any particular individual would be interested, Parker and Little are former Labour leaders, Robertson a former Deputy PM and Sepuloni is the current Deputy PM. Davis is the deputy party leader so would also be someone to consider. From the rest of Cabinet, Woods would be the stand out and Tinetti and Verrall also stand out to me in terms of experience with big portfolios.
Nope – the reference was to the formation of a Government in the next term.
And the speculation that Parker would retire during that term. Obviously, if he gains a high cabinet post, then that's less likely – but if he's continuing in a mid-level one, and ongoing tension with Hipkins over wealth tax – then it seems much more likely.
When the new polls are published Curia usually has National's numbers higher than the rest. David Farrer maintains their methodology is among the best so there must be another reason for it. 😀
Looking at the last 7 polls (July/August) – the National Party reached a high of 36% – not in the Curia ones, but in those conducted by Talbot Mills and Newshub.
Talbot Mills doesn't seem to have released a recent poll – the last one I can find of theirs is end June-beginning of July.
Unless you have a link to a more recent one – or have some private information.
That poll, interestingly, has almost identical results for Labour to the Curia one taken over the same period – and the TM one has a higher result for National.
The key word is "usually". I'm talking in an historical sense. It has been noted many times over the years including by journalists – always in a slightly amused vein. 🙂
Your constant calls for evidence is boring. No way am I going back over 20-30 years of newspapers to satisfy your lust for links on comments you don't like.
Based on such an attitude, no-one would be able to offer any reflection on past events. History as we know it would become obsolete. 🙄
So – no evidence. A complete invention on your part.
Even when it is pointed out to you (with evidence) that your statement is certainly not true ATM; you double down, and insist that it must have been true sometime in the past – again with no evidence.
Your inventions and evasions are considerably more boring – and frankly, dishonest.
And, you seem to have missed the requirement, being enforced much more rigorously in the run up to the election – that evidence must be provided if called for on TS.
That appears to be only if you are asked by a moderator. Under the bit on current problems in the link you provided it says "and providing evidence when asked by a moderator"
If the moderator doesn't take action it can, as Anne is doing, be ignored.
We don’t generally expect people to provide evidence every single time they say something, some things are well known and don’t need backing up. But you do have to provide evidence when asked (see policy quote above).
Evidence guidelines
Providing evidence needs to be in a way that is easily accessible to authors, moderators, readers and commenters. These are the guidelines I currently use and expect people to meet,
an explanation of your point
with a quote/s to back it up
and a link to where that quote came from
An example of which, is that the sea salt has to be behind the mustard when the ball is passed to be onside.
It's a quote, from a film, so a link to the film from which the quote came was provided.
See 14 below.
It’s an expectation, with the possible consequence of moderator interest in the lack of.
Patricia did not provide a link to this information in her original post – although I asked for it. The fact that you can find it online in 5 seconds now, has nothing to do with the fact that it may not have been published when I was looking – much earlier in the day.
2. "Complete invention" refers to Anne's statement. "When the new polls are published Curia usually has National's numbers higher than the rest."
I asked for evidence for her statement – providing a link to the reported polling data for this year – to show that it did not appear to be true.
Note that 'usually' in common English would have to reflect at least 50% of the time – and probably quite a bit higher.
Do you think the quantity of polls is putting off working class and poor voters?
For me, this slew of them is making me spew. I'm still trying to get people enrolled, and the polls are just fluff, a real distraction. And at worst, they feel like a manipulation.
So – no evidence. A complete invention on your part.
Even when it is pointed out to you (with evidence) that your statement is certainly not true ATM;
Your arrogance is mind boggling Belladonna.
This 'fact' has been mentioned on this site by numerous commenters over the years which you would not know about because you are a newcomer. In the past I also saw it reflected upon on a few other public forums. Don’t ask me where because I've forgotten now. That does not mean they don't exist.
NO. I am not going to trawl through thousands upon thousands of comments to satisfy your desire to be the dominant force on this site.
Bd has my sympathy for the 'tricky' choices that political centrists face.
Zen and the art of motorway maintenance [7 August 2023]
In this sense the pothole is a good symbol how of this election is proceeding. There are itches all around the body politic that demand scratching. In the moment we are far more aware of them than we are of the tumour quietly growing inside, the virus caught but not yet symptomatic, the vehicle crash that awaits around the corner, the fire about to engulf our home. The snake oil retailers draw attention to the easy solutions to the surface and immediate issues and we are often only too willing to reward them for it.
If only that nice Mr Key had made good on his 2008 election promise to close the gap between Kiwi and Aussie wages. Another flood of Kiwis crossing the ditch (to a country with an even earlier Overshoot Day than Aotearoa NZ) may be looming.
The Dominion Post newspaper reported that while Economic Development Minister, Gerry Brownlee, was saying the wage gap had reduced since his party came into office, figures it obtained comparing average weekly earnings in November 2008 and February this year (2010) showed New Zealand wages grew by 5.2 per cent compared to 6.17 per cent for Australia. Australia's ordinary average wage rose from A$1165 to A$1243 ($1433 to $1529) while New Zealand's went from $891 to $947. One of John Key's election promises was to 'close the gap'.
Without knowing what methodology the polls use to address the undecided & unlikely to vote it's hard to know what to make of such huge disparities in the polling, they seem outside the margin of error – and remember all polling methods nowadays seem to be unable to overcome an inherent bias to the right (if the last few actual election results are any guide).
Still, the trend for Labour is down. Hipkins needs to come up with something more than insipid "prudent" centrist managerialism in the next few weeks to win back voters moving to non-voting, NZ First or the Greens. Labour needs a circuit breaker policy – some sort of mega extension of middle class welfare might do the job, but I would prefer a tax free threshold on income somehwere in the range of $10-20,000.
Apparently, the regular TM polls are not done for the Labour Party, but for one or more 'corporate clients'.
And are 'leaked' rather than released. [I have to say, that given that they are leaked every time, they should just bite the bullet and release them officially]
From the coverage of the last one…
Talbot Mills contacted 1036 people between June 28 and July 2. The poll has a margin of error of 3 per cent. The poll is produced for Talbot Mills’ corporate clients. The company also conducts Labour’s internal poll.
From memory they often do coincide but whether that is intentional is hard to say. Bearing in mind they have to conduct the poll which could take a few days and then collate the results, I think they follow a similar time-span especially at this time in the election cycle.
As far as I know Talbot Mills polls are commissioned by industrial and business communities. I guess each group highlight the information they require, including the Labour Party, so they might not be done on the same basis.
Just my thoughts on what I recall happening over the years.
Precondition: drought. Result: tinderbox. Unknown: spark. Scaling up factor: Dora to the south + anticyclone to the north = wind vortex between them.
Elemental analysis gives us a tetrad: drought/drying out/combustion/conflagaration.
Chaos theory taught us that two adjacent domains that are complex systems produce creative catalysis at the boundary where their influences balance out 30 years ago. Both scientists & opinion leaders have failed to get the picture ever since – even when reality clobbers them with the force of a piece of 4×2.
Climate change is increasingly giving us scenarios like this classic Maui picture to learn from. Mainstream leaders floundering are no good for anyone. We need people who learn the lessons nature is trying to teach us.
China is discovering the downside of a slide to authoritarianism, autarky and a loss of investor confidence that the rule of rule will be the norm in doing business in China.
"… foreign direct investment into China fell 89% from a year earlier in the second quarter of this year to $4.9 billion, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange…."
89% collapse in investment year on year is huge. This the lowest in 25 years – in otherwords, for the lifespan of China's economic miracle.
4.9 billion or even 8 billion is no big deal in context.
'The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China was worth 17963.17 billion US dollars in 2022, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of China represents 7.97 percent of the world economy.'
I think Ukraine receives more than 4.9billion a month to fight the 'good' fight.
That is just nonsense. China has fallen into deflation and everyone knows the figures from Chinese economists are doctored up the wazoo – According to Bloomberg & Fortune (paywalled, although you can easily Google the headline) the already disasterous official youth unemplyment rate of 21.3% could actually be double that.
China has very high local government debt – so they can't use that to stimulate their way out of trouble like they did after the GFC. High debt and deflation are major headwinds, and China is far to dependent on export receipts (17% or so of GDP, the United States is about half that) fto achieve anything like the autarky that the United States has in it's economy for trying to stimulate growth. Putin’s mad invasion of the Ukraine is a disaster for China, because it has alerted the USA and EU to how hollowed out their own heavy industry base has become and led directly to economic measures to booset that base – which is a direct cost to China.
The main take away for me is an economic slow down in China brought on my Xi's hardline approach will be very destabilising, and probably very bad for NZ.
We know NZ is a trading nation which runs an 'open economy. How dependent are we.
Talking about debt, the U. S has a meaningless debt ceiling, that gets raised every year and has trillions of unpayable exposure. It would be a complete basket case apart from its privilege as default currency for international trade.
The world is tired of subsidising US hegemony and the desire to challenge it is accelerating.
China has merely responded to tariffs and military threats imposed by America.
Key admits he has some political bias……but then…Luxon and Seymour will squirm at this:
"……compared to the rest of the world, the international director, former Prime Minister and National Party leader said New Zealand was “pretty darn good”.
Economically Australia is less "boom and bust" than NZ…..then there is the politics….
Key goes on to say: “It’s a feeling that we’re in a malaise, that we’re not doing that well. That Australia’s doing better than us.”
This is the politics, the general perception that the opposition have been cultivating, during and since the Pandemic……which by the way now seems to be conveniently ignored as any influence at all….
Looking forward to their non-violent direct action to mark 86 years since Imperial Japan began the systemic murder of 200,000 – 300,000 residents of Nanjing.
I don't have a problem with that protest, I mean my take is they can still protest and just get away with a severe telling off and a conviction.
I question the relevance though, the use of nuclear weapons on Japan occurred eight decades ago now against the background of a global total war where the Axis were guilty of unspeakable acts of barbarism.
These days the people most likely to rattle the nuclear sabre are the likes of Dmitry Menvedev, who seems to enjoy getting stuck into his liquor cabinet and then posting wild threats of nuclear armageddon on his social media – which is exactly the sort of behaviour one would want from a senior politician of any major power with a massive nuclear stockpile /sarc/
The Japanese were pretty much the dictionary definition of "they were asking for it".
You know what they say – don't start what you can't finish, and if you decide to throw away any restraints on your behaviour and engage in barbarism you had better be 100% sure the other side don't get into a position to return the favour with interest, because you can be sure they’ll do so with alacrity.
I don't usually post this guy (as he's not well liked here), but this is interesting. The blockage to Green Transition is political, not technological, who knew!
Interview on the BBC in the 80s. Why do we not invest in large numbers in public transport? answer: because we could never meet demand, and besides it is easier for us to get people to buy private transport. It just stuck with me then that we are never going to get it done properly.
The destructing of public transport initially was political – the closure of rail lines for commercial and person transport, and the failure to revive it is also.
Instead we have :" here have up to 8 grand to buy an EV, it will make you feel all green here as the pollution is in the lands were we mine, build and then via shipping". But its ok, you get to feel all warm and fuzzy whilst driving in your own very green and progressive country.
It was explained in the movie Bend It Like Beckham – 1hour 10 minute 20sec – 1hour 11 min 30s – the sea salt has to be level or behind the mustard, when the ball is passed
Between the most forward of your players, and the goal.
When (and only when) the 'offside' player touches the ball or they are deemed (by the ref) to be active in play (blocking, etc – to enable their player to have a free run at goal)
If there is only the goalkeeper between you and the goal (and you don't have the ball) – then you are off-side – if your side is attacking, or you receive the ball.
If you have the ball – then it doesn't matter how many players are or aren't in front of you – you can't be off-side.
The tricky part comes with passing – when you pass the ball forward – you have to ensure that there is an opposing player (other than the goalkeeper) in front of the attacking player – to whom the ball is being passed – before they receive the ball.
Open to correction by someone with a greater degree of experience in coaching, refing or even watching soccer than I have!
The blue player (attacker) farthest left in this image is in an offside position when their teammate with the ball kicks it because only one red player (defender) is in front of them, in this case the goal keeper. The blue player at farthest left needs to be to the right of, or behind, the dotted line (which is marked by the next closest red player to their goal) so that more than one defender is in front of them.
Notes:
It doesn't need to be the keeper, just any two defending players.
It's not an offence to stand in an offside position, but it becomes an offence if you engage in play from that position.
No offsides from a throw in.
No offside if the ball passer is closer to the goal than the receiver (see corner kicks).
Offside is when any ball playing part of the attacking player is in front of second last defender ie, arm is fine up to the shoulder because in football the arm is not a ball playing part of the body.
I hope Winston First gets around 4.5% of the vote come election time. Soak up some of that protest vote that might otherwise go the ACT but not sufficient for him to get back into Parliament. The other odd ball and fringe parties like conservatives, brian tamaki party, outdoors etc can take a bit from the right wing as well. A realistic outcome on election night, Labour-Greens about equal with Nat-ACT and either needing the support of Maori party. Keep the Maori Health Authority, continual work on climate change and a CGT once the government is formed
Winston First will get 7-9% of the vote so long as he and Shane Jones keep their heads screwed on and don't start playing the Smart Arse Maori Tricks by letting their ultra ego's get in the way.
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How Labour’s and National’s failure to move beyond neoliberalism has brought NZ to the brink of economic and cultural chaos Chris Trotter writes – TO START LOSING, so soon after you won, requires a special kind of political incompetence. At the heart of this Coalition ...
And why did the Crown not challenge the Tribunal’s jurisdiction? Gary Judd writes – Retired District Court Judge, David Harvey, has posted on his A Halflings View Substack an excellent summary of Justice Isacs’ judgment declining to uphold the witness summons issued by the Waitangi Tribunal ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result?As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and ...
Macklemore isn’t someone I’d usually think about. Sure I liked his big hit from a few years back, everybody did it was catchy and cool with some memorable lines. But if I was going to think of artists who might speak out on political matters or world events, he wouldn’t ...
Another week goes by in the Luxon government’s efforts to roll back the past 70 years of social progress. The school lunches programme is to be downgraded by $107 million, and women need bother their heads no longer about pay equity, let alone expect ACC to provide adequate sexual violence ...
Brrr, the first cold snap of the year. Hope you’re rugged up nice and warm. Here are some stories that caught our eye this week… This Week on Greater Auckland On Monday, we had a post from a new contributor, Connor Sharp, who dug into the public feedback ...
Almost all of the Wellington City Council’s recommended zoning changes to allow many more apartments and townhouses in its inner-suburbs have been approved.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guest on geopolitics, ...
Open access notablesA Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Balaguru et al., Earth's Future:Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, ...
Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result? As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and always answered “yes”, with very few ...
Thus far May has followed on from a quiet April in the blogging department, but in fairness, it has been another case of doing what I am supposed to be doing, namely writing original fiction. Plus reading. So don’t worry – I have been productive. But in order to reassure ...
Buzz from the Beehive A new government agency will open for business on July 1 – the Social Investment Agency. As a new standalone central agency effective from 1 July, it will lead the development of social investment across Government, helping ministers understand who they need to invest in, what ...
Bryce Edwards writes – “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The ...
Alwyn Poole writes – After being elected to Parliament in 2008 the maiden speech of Hipkins was substantially around education policy. He was Labour’s spokesperson for education 2011 – 2017. He was Minister for Education from 2017 until February 2023. This is approximately 88% of the time Labour ...
Eric Crampton writes – A fashion industry group is lobbying for protections. They make the usual arguments and a newer one. None of it makes sense. An industry group says it pumped $7.8 billion into the economy last year – that’s 1.9 percent of New Zealand’s GDP. ...
In December 2006, Fiji's military leader Voreqe Bainimarama overthrew the elected government in a coup. He ruled Fiji for the next 16 years, first as dictator, then as "elected" Prime Minister. But now, he's finally been sent to jail where he belongs. Sadly, this isn't for his real crime of ...
Don't like National's corrupt Muldoonist "fast-track" law? Aotearoa's environmental NGO's - Greenpeace, Forest & Bird, WWF, Coromandel Watchdog, Coal Action Network Aotearoa, Kiwis Against Seabed Mining, and others - have announced a joint march against it in Auckland in June: When: 13:00, 8 June, 2024 Where: Aotea Square, Auckland You ...
Seymour describes sushi as too woke for school meals. There are no fish sushi meals recommended by the School Lunches programme. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: The Government will swap out hot meals for packaged sandwiches to save $107 million on school lunches for poor kids. MSD has pulled ...
I don't mind stealin' bread from the mouths of decadenceBut I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled, yeahBut it's on the table, the fire's cookin'And they're farmin' babies, while slaves are workin'The blood is on the table and the mouths are chokin'But I'm goin' hungry, yeahSome ...
The Ardern Government’s chickens came home to roost yesterday with the news that the country is short of natural gas. In 2018, Labour banned offshore petroleum exploration, and industry executives say that the attendant loss of confidence by the industry impacted overall investment in onshore gas fields. Energy Resources Minister ...
Hi,If you’ve been digging through the newly launched Webworm store (orders are being dispatched worldwide as I type!) you’ll have noticed the best model we had was Calvin.This is Calvin.Calvin.Calvin is 7, and is the son of my producer over on Flightless Bird, Rob — aka “Wobby Wob”. Rob also ...
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Climate change is everywhere. And when something's everywhere it can feel like it's nowhere. So how do we get our heads ...
Its a law like gravity: whenever a right-wing government is elected, they start attacking democracy. And now, after talking to their Republican and Tory and Fidesz chums at the International Democracy Union forum in Wellington, National is doing it here, announcing plans to remove election-day enrolment. Or, to put it ...
Yesterday Winston Peters focussed his attention on the important matter at hand. Tweeting. Like the former, and quite possibly next, orange POTUS, from whom he takes much of his political strategy, Winston is an avid X’er.His message didn’t resemble an historic address this time. In fact it was more reminiscent ...
Buzz from the Beehive A significant decline in natural gas production has given Resources Minister Shane Jones an opportunity to reiterate his enthusiasm for the mining and burning of coal. For good measure, he has praised an announcement from Genesis Energy that it will resume importing coal. He and Energy ...
“Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The political parties are legally obliged to make ...
Rob MacCullough writes – Here is my subjective ranking on a “most-left” to “most-right” scale of most of our major NZ Universities, with some anecdotal (and at times amusing) evidence to back up the claim.Extreme Left Auckland University of TechnologyEvidenceThe ...
Eric Crampton writes – I hadn’t thought about this one until a helpful email showed up in my inbox.It’s pretty obvious that income tax thresholds should automatically index with inflation – whether to anchor the thresholds in percentiles of the income distribution, or to anchor against a real ...
Jacqui Van Der Kaay writes – Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National ...
Gary Judd writes – The Dean of the law school at the Auckland University of Technology is someone called Khylee Quince. I have been sent her social media posting in which she has, over the LawNews headline “Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Maori studies for ...
Cleo Paskal writes – WASHINGTON, D.C.: ‘Many of us have received phone calls from [the opposing camp] telling them if they join the camp they will be given projects for their wards and $300,000 [around US$35,000] each’, says former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani. The elections in Solomon Islands aren’t ...
With hindsight, it was inevitable that (a) Hamas would agree to the ceasefire deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar and that ( b) Israel would then immediately launch attacks on Rafah, regardless. We might have hoped the concessions made by Hamas would cause Israel to desist from slaughtering thousands more ...
Placards and mourners outside the Kilbirnie Mosque following the Christchurch terror attack: MSD has terminated the Kaiwhakaoranga service, which has been used by 415 families since the attacks. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government’s pledge to only cut ‘back office’ staff rather than ‘frontline’ services is on increasingly shaky ground, with ...
There’s been a few smaller public transport announcements over the last week or so that I thought I’d cover in a single post. Fareshare I’ve long called for Auckland Transport to offer a way to enable employer-subsidised public transport options. The need for this took on even more importance ...
Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National Minister Matt Doocey, reflects poorly on Genter and ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Who likes being sneered at? Nobody. Worse yet, when the sneerer has their facts all wrong, and might well be an idiot.The sneer in question is The adults are in charge now, and it is a sneer offered in retort to criticism of this new Government, no matter how well ...
When in government, Labour pushed to extend the Parliamentary term to four years, to reduce accountability and our ability to vote out a bad government. And now, they're trying to do it through the member's ballot, with a Four-Year Parliamentary Term Legislation Bill. The bill at least requires a referendum ...
A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill (Hūhana Lyndon) The bill would prevent the government from stealing Māori land in breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. It ...
Simeon Brown, alongside Wayne Brown, is favouring a political figleaf now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is pushing back hard at suggestions from Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Buzz from the Beehive One headline-grabber from the Beehive yesterday was the OECD’s advice that the government must bring the Budget deficit under control or face higher interest rates. Another was the announcement of a $1.9 billion “investment” in Corrections over the next four years. In the best interests of ...
Chris Trotter writes – Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed ...
David Farrar writes – Two articles give a useful contrast in balance. Both seek to be neutral explainer articles. This one in the Herald on Social Investment covers the pros and cons nicely. It links to critical pieces and talks about aspects that failed and aspects that are more ...
The tikanga regulations will compel law students to be taught that a system which does not conform with the rule of law is nevertheless law which should be observed and applied…Gary Judd KC writes – I have made a complaint to Parliament’s Regulation ...
The future of Te Huia, the train between Hamilton and Auckland, has been getting a lot of attention recently as current funding for it is only in place till the end of June. The government initially agreed to a five year trial, through to April 2026, but that was subject ...
TL;DR: Hamas has just agreed to Israel’s ceasefire plan. Nelson hospital’s rebuild has been cut back to save money. The OECD suggests New Zealand break up network monopolies, including in electricity. PM Christopher Luxon’s news conference on a prison expansion announcement last night was his messiest yet.Here’s my top six ...
A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun ...
Hi,I know it’s been awhile since there’s been any Webworm merch — and today that all changes!Over the last four months, I’ve been working with New Zealand artist Jess Johnson to create a series of t-shirts, caps and stickers that are infused with Webworm DNA — and as of right ...
The OECD’s chief economist yesterday laid it on the line for the new Government: bring the deficit under control or face higher Reserve Bank interest rates for longer. And to bring the deficit under control, she meant not borrowing for tax cuts. But there was more. Without policy changes—introducing a ...
After a hiatus of over four months Selwyn Manning and I finally got it together to re-start the “A View from Afar” podcast series. We shall see how we go but aim to do 2 episodes per month if possible. … Continue reading → ...
In 2008, the UK Parliament passed the Climate Change Act 2008. The law established a system of targets, budgets, and plans, with inbuilt accountability mechanisms; the aim was to break the cycle of empty promises and replace it with actual progress towards emissions reduction. The law was passed with near-universal ...
Buzz from the Beehive Local Water Done Well – let’s be blunt – is a silly name, but the first big initiative to put it into practice has gone done well. This success is reflected in the headline on an RNZ report:District mayors welcome Auckland’s new water deal with ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate ConnectionsA farmworker cleans the solar panels of a solar water pump in the village of Jagadhri, Haryana Country, India. (Photo credit: Prashanth Vishwanathan/ IWMI) Decisions made in India over the next few years will play a key role in global ...
Lindsay Mitchell writes – The Children’s Minister, Karen Chhour, intends to repeal Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 because it creates conflict between claimed Crown Treaty obligations and the child’s best interests. In her words, “Oranga Tamariki’s governing principles and its act should be colour ...
Geoffrey Miller writes – The gloves are off. That might seem to be the undertone of surprisingly tough talk from New Zealand’s foreign and trade ministers. Winston Peters, the foreign minister, may be facing legal action after making allegations about former Australian foreign minister Bob Carr on Radio New Zealand. ...
Brian Easton writes – This is about the time that the Treasury will be locking up its economic forecasts to be published in the 2024 Budget Economic and Fiscal Update (BEFU) on budget day, 30 May. I am not privy to what they will be (I will report on them ...
TL;DR:Winston Peters is reported to have won a budget increase for MFAT. David Seymour wanted his Ministry of Regulation to be three times bigger than the Productivity Commission. Simeon Brown is appointing a Crown Monitor to Watercare to protect the Claytons Crown Guarantee he had to give ratings agencies ...
Today New Zealand First will introduce a Member’s Bill that will protect women’s spaces. The ‘Fair Access to Bathrooms Bill’ will require, primarily in the interest and safety of women and girls, that all new non-domestic publicly accessible buildings provide separate, clearly demarcated, unisex and single sex bathrooms. This Bill ...
The Green Party is welcoming Climate Change Minister Simon Watts’ continuation of Hon. James Shaw’s cross-party work on climate adaptation, now in the form of a Finance and Expenditure Committee Inquiry. ...
The National Government plans to cut 390 jobs at ACC, including roles in the areas of prevention of sexual violence, road safety and workplace safety. ...
The Government has been caught in opposition to evidence once again as it looks to usher in tried, tested and failed work seminar obligations for job-seeking beneficiaries. ...
The Green Party is welcoming the announcement by the Minister Responsible for RMA Reform Chris Bishop to approve most of the Wellington City Council’s District Plan recommendations. ...
David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...
Hon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...
The Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...
Ministers must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
The Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...
With Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...
The Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...
Labour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...
Today’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...
The Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...
Unemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...
The New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...
The National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...
This afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...
Te Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
A high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office. “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...
New Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...
Introduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...
New Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...
Jobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...
A new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...
Check against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...
Your Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...
The Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...
Rape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...
Associate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...
New research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...
There has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...
Defence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...
Welcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...
It is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...
New Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...
A new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...
The Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...
Minister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...
New Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...
Six tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...
New Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...
The OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...
The Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...
Thank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...
The Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...
The coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...
Structured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...
Trade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...
The rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...
The Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...
New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...
Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...
PNG Post-Courier New Zealand High Commissioner Peter Zwart and PNG Defence Minister Dr Billy Joseph welcomed a C-130 Hercules to Port Moresby this week to support Papua New Guinea’s response to the March 24 earthquake and recent severe flooding. “Papua New Guinea has requested New Zealand’s assistance to transport emergency ...
Grub Street King Luxon rode through the streets Of King’s Landing, and was troubled By the sight of hungry urchins in the mud. “Who would be the best of my Lords To deal with this negative optic?” He pondered. The answer came to him instantly. “Seymour!” he said to himself. ...
“The Bill does not provide environmental protection, good quality decision making, certainty, public participation or speed. It should be withdrawn.” ...
RNZ News Television New Zealand has breached its collective agreement with the E tū union when deciding on discontinuing programmes, the Employment Relations Authority has ruled. It was announced in March that 68 staff members who work for news programmes Midday and Tonight, consumer justice programme Fair Go, current affairs ...
Asia Pacific Report Barangay New Zealand’s Rene Molina has interviewed the country’s first Filipino Green MP Francisco Hernandez who was sworn into Parliament yesterday as the party’s latest member. This is the first interview with Hernandez who replaces former Green Party co-leader James Shaw after his retirement from politics to ...
An Australian Strategic Policy Institute report says Pillar Two could raise the industry to state of the art capability - or "crush" it "under the weight of the globe's biggest player". ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marlene Longbottom, Associate Professor, Indigenous Education & Research Centre, James Cook University ShutterstockThis article contains information on deaths in custody and the violence experienced by First Nations people in encounters with the Australian carceral system. It also contains references to ...
“Instead of following along countries that are investing in death and better ways of killing people faster, we need to invest in life and in making Aotearoa a fair, just and equitable place where everyone has what they need for a dignified life.” ...
MARIAMENO KAPA-KINGI, TPM MP FOR TAI TOKERAU This Government will not waver in its mission to exterminate Māori. CHRISTOPHER LUXON Oh well look you know I don’t think that hard-working Kiwis want to hear language like that. It’s just really unhelpful rhetoric. My Government is genuinely committed to advancing outcomes ...
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The PM doesn't understand his agriculture minister, who said “We probably don’t have enough tax in this country”.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/somewhat-convoluted-pm-confronts-ministers-claim-there-isnt-enough-tax-in-new-zealand/2XEBBRY7IBFTPANBRW7RASO7CE/
So looks like the PM is seeking to evade the truth. Only extremely weak men do that. His biological signalling to the nation is likely to be widely interpreted as admission of defeat. Winners don't do such signalling.
I think the conclusion can be made that hipkins lurching labour into the centre ..has been a total misreading of the mood of the left/centre left…
Our present situation as a nation is redolent of the failures of the neoliberal-incrementalism that labour has clung to since the days of douglas…
It is all coming to the conclusions long predicted by critics of that poxy ideology…
The rich have got so much richer…the poor have got so much poorer..
And our institutions of our society are in many cases falling apart…showing the results of that neoliberal-incrementalism having been applied to them for those preceeding decades…
And many now know those above realities…and know we can't just continue doing the same things..and expect different outcomes ..
All of the rest of us know that the rich have become obscenely rich..and that they pay f*ck all tax…and have been laughing all the way to the bank…while things just get worse for the rest of us..
Hipkins has failed to read this mood..
We are now looking to politicians to fix what ails us ..and all we see from hipkins is a face blank to our wants..
(Who has now resorted to muldoonist think big bullshit..wot with his tunnel dreams…)
And I know labour have yet to release their election policies…and hipkins could still pull a flock of rabbits out of his hat..
But I fear that tax off fruit/veg could be it/their big bang policy..
And if it is..it will be nowhere near enough..
And I know that their are many in labour who know the party has to swivel to a democratic socialism brace of policies/ideas..for both it's own..and the countries sake .
And good on them..!..more power to them..!..and they should be in the ascendant…but hipkins has shut all that down..to his/labour's peril..
What's wrong with Damien O'Connors statement? I have more of a problem with the PMs response to the statement, which as usual uses a lot of words to say nothing at all.
Study after study has shown NZ has a taxation issue and for an extremely earthquake, volcanic and flood prone set of islands subject to whatever weather and sea currents are playing out in the Pacific that's a problem.
the rebuilds for the north island and Christchurch are astronomical and we never talk seriously about how to pay for them, imagine if we had another Christchurch level event in Wellington? We simply couldn't pay for it. Hell we still haven't fixed CHCH.
I usually defend journalists but Ryan Bridge's interview with the Pm was disgraceful, smarmy rich prick from a family of money vibes just oozes out of him.
Him and everyone like him would be absolutely happy with bankrupting the country from borrowing to pay for a rebuild to a natural disaster but heaven forbid he pay a cent more in tax
The PM just sucks… At everything… In these interviews he always comes off as a man of no ideology, principles or political beliefs, he just uses loads and loads of words to say nothing.
Not once have I ever seen this prime minister seriously challenge a tory journo when they are attacking the most modest basic center left position, Hipkins will just say lots of words and pretty much agree with the tory journo and say "wait and see" and he increasingly speaks like a president with "I have decided" "me" statements rather than a prime Minister "we have decided"
A man of no conviction, unwilling to stand up for the most modest left wing belief…
It's no wonder most people think he's full of shit. He's so ideology free he could lead national and it wouldn't shock anyone
I suspect he got spooked by Damien telling the truth – so un-Labour-like it almost seems subversive from such a conservative chappie. Anyone with half a working brain will have instantly correlated his statement with Parker's diffident ditching of his revenue portfolio, not to mention Grant's collaboration with him.
One or two journos have been speculating re cabinet division. After somnambulating for three years I doubt if any of them are capable of being that activist. Deep state theorists will be presuming they have been relentless in underperforming due to a directive from on high that they need to toss the baton to the Nats this time. Luxon needs their help due to incessant harping not working well for him.
Hipkins deserves credit for copying Ardern's captain's call on tax policy – divine right to rule hasn't been trendy for quite a while so the two of them trying to force the beast in thro the back door is an ongoing source of entertainment. Trying to teach thicko Labourites that the leader doesn't need a cabinet to make collective decisions is excellent subversion of democracy – but they're too thick to get it fast.
Helen Clark ought to give the two credit for their strategy of making Labour PMs seem presidential. She could point out that Lange started it, unilaterally jerking the rug from under the rogernomes in the new year of '88. However you may have been a little to hard on Hipkins re conviction/ideology, Corey. I suspect he is adhering to the neolib prescription like a limpet due to personal conviction that Thatcher's `no alternative' dictum is the correct ideological line to follow.
Interesting times
Rogan: No one is going to run against Trump on the Republican side and win because you are not going to get the Trump supporters… The fact that he was the President for four years, and the country was in a great economic situation
https://t.me/My21wire/12846
Unemployment was down. Business was booming. Regulations were being relaxed. More things were getting done.
When you look at the Russia collusion. When you look at the Steele dossier. When you look at all the bullshit, they tried to throw at him that we now know is bullshit.
Not just bullshit, but coordinated bullshit. When you look at the fact that they suppressed this Hunter Biden laptop story.
And 51 intelligence agency representatives signed off on that to say that this is Russian disinformation, which we know they know is not true. That's scary.
Because now you have the intelligence agencies colluding to keep a guy from being president, who was president during a time when the country was thriving economically."
[You have changed your username. We don’t generally allow this, but if you want to do this once, please let me know that this is now the username you will use going forward or if you want to go back to the previous one. In premod until I get a response. Also, I fixed the typo in your email address, please check each time your fill it in again – weka]
mod note, you are in premod until you respond.
Also, it's unclear whether the words in your comment are yours, Rogan's, or someone else's. Please see how other people make quotes clear on TS for comments going forward.
Hi Weka,
Just got chewed out by Iprent and Incognito for not following policy (some thing about me being a dickhead – ). Fair comments from them as your all busy people. I will have a read of the policy and improve my posts.
As for name change, yes please keep KS
It's time for all good christians to come to the aid of the party. Which party though?
Go Alfred! Fire that rocket! Suck enough votes out of National & folks will call you Alfred the Great!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-former-national-party-minister-alfred-ngaro-set-to-launch-new-christian-party/LA6PRUVYPNBXLOIZVJDCOA55GI/
Can see him picking up a chunk of vote out of South Auckland tbh, Luxon is probably fairly attractive to the Christian vote.
If there was a legitimate constituency for an explicitly Christian conservative party in New Zealand, surely one would have succeeded by now.
Just ask:
Christian Heritage (1.35% and 0.12%)
Destiny New Zealand (0.62%)
The Kiwi Party (0.54%)
Family Party (0.35%)
Conservative Party (2.65%, 3.97%, and 0.2%)
Clearly, these yahoos can't count.
A reference to 'Dirty politics' today reminded me of the conspiracy theory,theory.
P.M John Key said Hagars revelations were a 'lefty conspiracy'.
People who buy into conspiracy theories are often characterised as gullible,easily manipulated,fools.
The term 'conspiracy theory' was the C.I.A's go to response to alternative viewpoints regarding geo political events .From around the the time of JFK's assassination ,to the present day, it became a standard response to anyone questioning the establishment version .
Even today in 2023, the findings regarding JFK's murder remain …classified.
Nothing to hide,nothing to….fear!Right?
My favourite jfk-theory is the mafia one..
Y'see it was a close vote..and the story goes that his father used his connections from his time as a bootlegger running alcohol into america from canada..to approach them to do all they could to get the vote out for his son… promising in return that under his presidency they would be largely left alone..
So they did..and their influence was particularly effective/important in Illinois..a state they largely controlled..where kennedy just squeaked in..
But then kennedy set up a special commission to target the mafia…run by his brother..
So they whacked them both..'cos my understanding is that you don't really want to do stuff like that to the mafia…
(Roberts assassin was a low ranking gangster guy..)
And as a theory..I reckon it hangs together quite well..
(And the fact the official findings are still classified.. pretty much demolishes the oswald alone official explanation..)
John Key wouldn't know what is left and what is right basically a Snake Oil Salesperson IMHO ?
Good to see the Sackler deal chucked out by the US Supreme Court.
Hopefully that evil family will have to give evidence alongside opioid addicts.
Also in the Washington Post today. Fancy Seymour being a shining light for American Libertarians.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/10/new-zealand-act-party-seymour-libertarianism/
Oh, but you forgot the Libertarian Party in Germany that is currently part of the Ample coalition. FDP. The Yellow party among the red SPD and green Green.
The FDP is a liberal party, much like our Labour/National, the PDV is the German libertarian party and equivalent to ACT.
PDV is a 'libertarian' Party that was birthed in 2009 and died failing to thrive.
FDP, Free Democratic Party of Germany however is a bit more successful, aking to ACT, by appearing somewhat reasonable in regards to the excesses of the main parties.
Libertarian parties can have a 'progressive' bend, see Seymour supporting the Self ID bill for example, and euthanasia, and if enough money is involved the next thing i can see him support is the legalisation of drugs.
The best foreign Minister Germany ever had came from the FDP, the Free Democratic Party of Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans-Dietrich_Genscher
Interesting times…. Don’t tell me …. The Democrates are good guys…No conspiracy here
NZincs political class (Nats, Lab, Act, Greens) are a bunch of suck ups ….
https://t.me/My21wire/12846
💢Rogan: No one is going to run against Trump on the Republican side and win because you are not going to get the Trump supporters… The fact that he was the President for four years, and the country was in a great economic situation
Unemployment was down. Business was booming. Regulations were being relaxed. More things were getting done.
When you look at the Russia collusion. When you look at the Steele dossier. When you look at all the bullshit, they tried to throw at him that we now know is bullshit.
Not just bullshit, but coordinated bullshit. When you look at the fact that they suppressed this Hunter Biden laptop story.
And 51 intelligence agency representatives signed off on that to say that this is Russian disinformation, which we know they know is not true. That's scary.
Because now you have the intelligence agencies colluding to keep a guy from being president, who was president during a time when the country was thriving economically."
You are joking I take it Karl?
He has drunk deeply of the cooker kool-aid I am afraid.
This is a couple of days old – so apologies if it's already been posted, but Audrey Young has done a couple of articles on what a Left or Right cabinet might look like after October.
Yes, of course it's speculative – but interesting to see opinions on which areas the minor parties might stake out, and who might be scheduled for promotion, or demotion.
Originally published in the Herald – but paywalled – so here are the archived links as well.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-audrey-young-the-cabinet-under-a-labour-greens-maori-party-govt/2A3DZDXW4BGL3CFPXH6PHBEDJU/
https://archive.ph/WGET5
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-audrey-young-what-a-national-act-cabinet-might-look-like/YSR5VCYMA5G5HGJCVTNR3YEO4Q/
https://archive.ph/hD4j8
Interesting, thanks. The only really bum note is Genter as associate transport and outside of cabinet.
Also, completely different ball game if the Greens say the wealth tax is a bottom line.
Entirely possible that Parker (who Young tapped as Transport) may retire during the term – thus freeing up Transport (certainly Halbert – who has been chairing the Transport & Infrastructure Committee – and who might be seen as a replacement — hasn't exactly been outstanding in this role)
Of course, negotiations – including over party bottom lines – might change things substantively (e.g. Hipkins would probably have to go as PM, if the GP negotiated wealth tax as a bottom line).
Who does Labour have to replace Hipkins?
Entirely without prejudice.
I'd see that Parker distancing himself from Hipkins over tax could be seen as a signal to both the left wing (in general) and the left wing of the LP, that there is an alternative.
I don't see Parker, myself, as leadership material (and he's ruled it out himself a couple of times) – but he could well be the money man (Finance).
Prior to Wood's spectacular self-destruction – I'd seen him as pre-positioning himself for a run at the top job in the next few years. But October would be way too soon for him to have remedied his blotted copybook.
I'd also seen Allan as a strong candidate as deputy. But, well off the cards for the next few years (if she ever comes back to politics)
McAnulty has done well – but perhaps not enough experience yet.
The solid, competent and capable performer is Megan Woods. She's been carrying at least two people's ministerial workload and is all over the detail of her portfolios, is a solid performer in the house, and is quick-witted, persuasive and articulate in interviews (unlike Little, for example, who came across as dour and dogged). I wouldn't be surprised to see her emerge as a front contender.
Leaving aside questions about whether any particular individual would be interested, Parker and Little are former Labour leaders, Robertson a former Deputy PM and Sepuloni is the current Deputy PM. Davis is the deputy party leader so would also be someone to consider. From the rest of Cabinet, Woods would be the stand out and Tinetti and Verrall also stand out to me in terms of experience with big portfolios.
Parker retiring during the term? You mean before October?
Nope – the reference was to the formation of a Government in the next term.
And the speculation that Parker would retire during that term. Obviously, if he gains a high cabinet post, then that's less likely – but if he's continuing in a mid-level one, and ongoing tension with Hipkins over wealth tax – then it seems much more likely.
Talbot Mills does not agree with Curia. Who'd a thunk!!
When the new polls are published Curia usually has National's numbers higher than the rest. David Farrer maintains their methodology is among the best so there must be another reason for it. 😀
Evidence?
Based on the election polling results, helpfully collated here, this seems to be a lie.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
Looking at the last 7 polls (July/August) – the National Party reached a high of 36% – not in the Curia ones, but in those conducted by Talbot Mills and Newshub.
There is a 4point difference . Commented on but not fully released.
Talbot Mills doesn't seem to have released a recent poll – the last one I can find of theirs is end June-beginning of July.
Unless you have a link to a more recent one – or have some private information.
That poll, interestingly, has almost identical results for Labour to the Curia one taken over the same period – and the TM one has a higher result for National.
The key word is "usually". I'm talking in an historical sense. It has been noted many times over the years including by journalists – always in a slightly amused vein. 🙂
Evidence. Because you seem to have none….
Perhaps a link to an article by these 'amused journalists'….
Your constant calls for evidence is boring. No way am I going back over 20-30 years of newspapers to satisfy your lust for links on comments you don't like.
Based on such an attitude, no-one would be able to offer any reflection on past events. History as we know it would become obsolete. 🙄
So – no evidence. A complete invention on your part.
Even when it is pointed out to you (with evidence) that your statement is certainly not true ATM; you double down, and insist that it must have been true sometime in the past – again with no evidence.
Your inventions and evasions are considerably more boring – and frankly, dishonest.
And, you seem to have missed the requirement, being enforced much more rigorously in the run up to the election – that evidence must be provided if called for on TS.
" that evidence must be provided if called for on TS.".
Really?
Yep. Here
Scroll down to “Providing evidence”
https://thestandard.org.nz/moderation-notes-in-election-year/
That appears to be only if you are asked by a moderator. Under the bit on current problems in the link you provided it says "and providing evidence when asked by a moderator"
If the moderator doesn't take action it can, as Anne is doing, be ignored.
An example of which, is that the sea salt has to be behind the mustard when the ball is passed to be onside.
It's a quote, from a film, so a link to the film from which the quote came was provided.
See 14 below.
It’s an expectation, with the possible consequence of moderator interest in the lack of.
Why do you say "complete invention" when you could find it online in 5 seconds? I just did.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300948107/labours-new-polling-shows-rosier-picture-for-party
2. "Complete invention" refers to Anne's statement. "When the new polls are published Curia usually has National's numbers higher than the rest."
I asked for evidence for her statement – providing a link to the reported polling data for this year – to show that it did not appear to be true.
Note that 'usually' in common English would have to reflect at least 50% of the time – and probably quite a bit higher.
Check the link. It was published at 8 am. See the time of the (many) comments.
You didn't find it, but that's nobody else's fault.
Nope. I said I couldn't find it – and asked for a link.
That's why best TS practice is for the original commenter to provide a link to the story they are commenting on.
Apologies Belladonna. And to Anne.
Using the Wikipedia link you provided @ 8.1.1, there have been 24 Curia polls since the last election, as far as I can tell.
13/23 of the Curia polls were higher than the subsequent poll (in that table) by an average of ca. 0.6%.
14/24 of the Curia polls were higher than the preceding poll (in that table) by an average of ca. 1.0%.
None of this is terribly meaningful, in my opinion, and not worth wasting much time & effort on.
These figures relate to the polling of National, of course.
Question incognito?
Do you think the quantity of polls is putting off working class and poor voters?
For me, this slew of them is making me spew. I'm still trying to get people enrolled, and the polls are just fluff, a real distraction. And at worst, they feel like a manipulation.
No, I don’t think that polls on their own and by themselves put off people/voters. Same applies to politics in general.
Thank you Observer.
Your arrogance is mind boggling Belladonna.
This 'fact' has been mentioned on this site by numerous commenters over the years which you would not know about because you are a newcomer. In the past I also saw it reflected upon on a few other public forums. Don’t ask me where because I've forgotten now. That does not mean they don't exist.
NO. I am not going to trawl through thousands upon thousands of comments to satisfy your desire to be the dominant force on this site.
Bd has my sympathy for the 'tricky' choices that political centrists face.
If only that nice Mr Key had made good on his 2008 election promise to close the gap between Kiwi and Aussie wages. Another flood of Kiwis crossing the ditch (to a country with an even earlier Overshoot Day than Aotearoa NZ) may be looming.
https://www.overshootday.org/newsroom/country-overshoot-days/
The Dominion Post newspaper reported that while Economic Development Minister, Gerry Brownlee, was saying the wage gap had reduced since his party came into office, figures it obtained comparing average weekly earnings in November 2008 and February this year (2010) showed New Zealand wages grew by 5.2 per cent compared to 6.17 per cent for Australia. Australia's ordinary average wage rose from A$1165 to A$1243 ($1433 to $1529) while New Zealand's went from $891 to $947. One of John Key's election promises was to 'close the gap'.
https://tiaki.natlib.govt.nz/#details=ecatalogue.590892
"…. the 'tricky' choices that political centrists face."
Sitting on the fence must be very boring and extraordinarily uncomfortable.
Maybe you should stop making shit up…
I think you owe Anne an apology.
Nah. Cw comes across as a bit of a reactionary. They rarely apologise.
There are two election campaigns being waged at present.
The first is the campaign between the Nats and Lab for the top spot.
The second between the Nats, ACT and NZ First.
The second one is the most interesting and amusing:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-winston-peters-claims-acts-attack-ad-proves-the-party-is-worried/SMF7GX52VJFWHE6CJGQADYLJYI/
Peters is always entertaining…..
Without knowing what methodology the polls use to address the undecided & unlikely to vote it's hard to know what to make of such huge disparities in the polling, they seem outside the margin of error – and remember all polling methods nowadays seem to be unable to overcome an inherent bias to the right (if the last few actual election results are any guide).
Still, the trend for Labour is down. Hipkins needs to come up with something more than insipid "prudent" centrist managerialism in the next few weeks to win back voters moving to non-voting, NZ First or the Greens. Labour needs a circuit breaker policy – some sort of mega extension of middle class welfare might do the job, but I would prefer a tax free threshold on income somehwere in the range of $10-20,000.
At this point the question is, are the Talbot Mills polls for the Labour Party done on the same basis as the ones released to the wider public?
And … are they done to coincide with another poll (say Curia) ….
Apparently, the regular TM polls are not done for the Labour Party, but for one or more 'corporate clients'.
And are 'leaked' rather than released. [I have to say, that given that they are leaked every time, they should just bite the bullet and release them officially]
From the coverage of the last one…
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-and-chris-hipkins-crash-in-latest-poll-gap-with-national-widest-since-2017/R6MWQK2TQBGK5FY3ZKOEYGVYPU/
I don’t know anything about the basis for Labour’s internal polling (or National’s for that matter)
From memory they often do coincide but whether that is intentional is hard to say. Bearing in mind they have to conduct the poll which could take a few days and then collate the results, I think they follow a similar time-span especially at this time in the election cycle.
As far as I know Talbot Mills polls are commissioned by industrial and business communities. I guess each group highlight the information they require, including the Labour Party, so they might not be done on the same basis.
Just my thoughts on what I recall happening over the years.
Causal analysis of the Maui disaster here: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/10/us/factors-fueling-maui-fires-climate/index.html
Precondition: drought. Result: tinderbox. Unknown: spark. Scaling up factor: Dora to the south + anticyclone to the north = wind vortex between them.
Elemental analysis gives us a tetrad: drought/drying out/combustion/conflagaration.
Chaos theory taught us that two adjacent domains that are complex systems produce creative catalysis at the boundary where their influences balance out 30 years ago. Both scientists & opinion leaders have failed to get the picture ever since – even when reality clobbers them with the force of a piece of 4×2.
Climate change is increasingly giving us scenarios like this classic Maui picture to learn from. Mainstream leaders floundering are no good for anyone. We need people who learn the lessons nature is trying to teach us.
China is discovering the downside of a slide to authoritarianism, autarky and a loss of investor confidence that the rule of rule will be the norm in doing business in China.
"… foreign direct investment into China fell 89% from a year earlier in the second quarter of this year to $4.9 billion, according to data released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange…."
89% collapse in investment year on year is huge. This the lowest in 25 years – in otherwords, for the lifespan of China's economic miracle.
https://www.npr.org/2023/08/09/1193013362/biden-executive-order-restricts-investments-china-tech
Perhaps the unease in China's elites at Xi's policies is behind the mysterious sacking of foreign minister Qin Gang, Xi's hand picked man for the job.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2023/7/28/chinas-missing-ex-minister-reveals-the-limits-of-xi-jinpings-power
4.9 billion or even 8 billion is no big deal in context.
'The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China was worth 17963.17 billion US dollars in 2022, according to official data from the World Bank. The GDP value of China represents 7.97 percent of the world economy.'
I think Ukraine receives more than 4.9billion a month to fight the 'good' fight.
That is just nonsense. China has fallen into deflation and everyone knows the figures from Chinese economists are doctored up the wazoo – According to Bloomberg & Fortune (paywalled, although you can easily Google the headline) the already disasterous official youth unemplyment rate of 21.3% could actually be double that.
China has very high local government debt – so they can't use that to stimulate their way out of trouble like they did after the GFC. High debt and deflation are major headwinds, and China is far to dependent on export receipts (17% or so of GDP, the United States is about half that) fto achieve anything like the autarky that the United States has in it's economy for trying to stimulate growth. Putin’s mad invasion of the Ukraine is a disaster for China, because it has alerted the USA and EU to how hollowed out their own heavy industry base has become and led directly to economic measures to booset that base – which is a direct cost to China.
The main take away for me is an economic slow down in China brought on my Xi's hardline approach will be very destabilising, and probably very bad for NZ.
So World Bank data is 'nonsense' – very good!
Dependent on export receipts!
17% is alot lower than I thought.
We know NZ is a trading nation which runs an 'open economy. How dependent are we.
Talking about debt, the U. S has a meaningless debt ceiling, that gets raised every year and has trillions of unpayable exposure. It would be a complete basket case apart from its privilege as default currency for international trade.
The world is tired of subsidising US hegemony and the desire to challenge it is accelerating.
China has merely responded to tariffs and military threats imposed by America.
We are but a single armhair shivering on the inhaled breath of China.
About 1/4 of our entire export income (agriculture and tourism) comes from China, about US$16 billion.
China exports US$3.7 trillion a year to the world, growing 4.51% from 2021 to 2022.
We mean almost nothing to them. They mean a helluva lot to us.
That income is tanking btw, lambs back $2 kg and mutton $2.50 on this time last year, might be an election worth losing!
Key admits he has some political bias……but then…Luxon and Seymour will squirm at this:
"……compared to the rest of the world, the international director, former Prime Minister and National Party leader said New Zealand was “pretty darn good”.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/pretty-darn-good-sir-john-key-upbeat-despite-debt-stress-chinas-economy/A7D6QO6HTFCKTMJ7CBLX56EQ34/
Can anyone remember a time when Australia was NOT doing better than us!
5x our population and the mining sector alone earns more than NZ's total GDP.
Economically Australia is less "boom and bust" than NZ…..then there is the politics….
Key goes on to say: “It’s a feeling that we’re in a malaise, that we’re not doing that well. That Australia’s doing better than us.”
This is the politics, the general perception that the opposition have been cultivating, during and since the Pandemic……which by the way now seems to be conveniently ignored as any influence at all….
78 years since the dropping of nukes on Japan.
Good job by peace activists -non-violent direct action.
Looking forward to their non-violent direct action to mark 86 years since Imperial Japan began the systemic murder of 200,000 – 300,000 residents of Nanjing.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contest_to_kill_100_people_using_a_sword
I don't have a problem with that protest, I mean my take is they can still protest and just get away with a severe telling off and a conviction.
I question the relevance though, the use of nuclear weapons on Japan occurred eight decades ago now against the background of a global total war where the Axis were guilty of unspeakable acts of barbarism.
These days the people most likely to rattle the nuclear sabre are the likes of Dmitry Menvedev, who seems to enjoy getting stuck into his liquor cabinet and then posting wild threats of nuclear armageddon on his social media – which is exactly the sort of behaviour one would want from a senior politician of any major power with a massive nuclear stockpile /sarc/
So 'they asked for it' did they.
You need to brush up on the Great Satan's record of death and destruction since WW2.
They even brought back… torture.
The Japanese were pretty much the dictionary definition of "they were asking for it".
You know what they say – don't start what you can't finish, and if you decide to throw away any restraints on your behaviour and engage in barbarism you had better be 100% sure the other side don't get into a position to return the favour with interest, because you can be sure they’ll do so with alacrity.
Interesting take on innocent civilians being fried……1 bomb to learn ya….and another for good…measure!
Do you have portraits of Atilla the Hun,Genghis Khan,George Bush,Tony Blair and Henry Kissinger hanging in your hallway?
'they' were the innocent civilians of the two bombed cities..
And they certainly weren't'asking for it'..
'they' were the vassals of their emperor…
Those bombings were war crimes most foul ..
All america had to do was to drop one in an uninhabited area..to show the Japanese military/emperor what they could do to them ..
They didn't need to bomb those cities..
They didn't need to kill all those innocent men/women/children .
They were their war crimes ..
Sheesh anything that questions an end to war, and you jingoists come out of the wood work fast.
I don't usually post this guy (as he's not well liked here), but this is interesting. The blockage to Green Transition is political, not technological, who knew!
I've been saying this for a while, although I would say social and political as well as psychological.
(havent' watched the video)
Perhaps you should say who "this guy" is before you expect people to click on an unlabelled YouTube link.
Interview on the BBC in the 80s. Why do we not invest in large numbers in public transport? answer: because we could never meet demand, and besides it is easier for us to get people to buy private transport. It just stuck with me then that we are never going to get it done properly.
The destructing of public transport initially was political – the closure of rail lines for commercial and person transport, and the failure to revive it is also.
Instead we have :" here have up to 8 grand to buy an EV, it will make you feel all green here as the pollution is in the lands were we mine, build and then via shipping". But its ok, you get to feel all warm and fuzzy whilst driving in your own very green and progressive country.
who wants to have a go at explaining the soccer offside rule to me?
It was explained in the movie Bend It Like Beckham – 1hour 10 minute 20sec – 1hour 11 min 30s – the sea salt has to be level or behind the mustard, when the ball is passed
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/shows/bend-it-like-beckham/movie/s1-e1
thanks for wasting my time SPC, fs.
It can be contentious but the gist is you can't pass a ball to a teammate if they are past the last defender when you kick it.
It is to stop a team having their strikers just standing next to the goal waiting for the ball to be kicked up the field.
Strikers therefore have to stay near the last defender and not get between them and the goalie unless they already have the ball or are chasing it.
It ain't easy, but I'll have a go….
A player is offside:
If there is only the goalkeeper between you and the goal (and you don't have the ball) – then you are off-side – if your side is attacking, or you receive the ball.
If you have the ball – then it doesn't matter how many players are or aren't in front of you – you can't be off-side.
The tricky part comes with passing – when you pass the ball forward – you have to ensure that there is an opposing player (other than the goalkeeper) in front of the attacking player – to whom the ball is being passed – before they receive the ball.
Open to correction by someone with a greater degree of experience in coaching, refing or even watching soccer than I have!
At the time the ball is passed, not before they receive the ball.
The sea salt can sprint past the mustard after it is passed before they receive it and be onside.
I bow to your superior expertise – and I'm sure there are other nuances I've missed as well…..
Visual representation might help:
The blue player (attacker) farthest left in this image is in an offside position when their teammate with the ball kicks it because only one red player (defender) is in front of them, in this case the goal keeper. The blue player at farthest left needs to be to the right of, or behind, the dotted line (which is marked by the next closest red player to their goal) so that more than one defender is in front of them.
Notes:
It doesn't need to be the keeper, just any two defending players.
It's not an offence to stand in an offside position, but it becomes an offence if you engage in play from that position.
No offsides from a throw in.
No offside if the ball passer is closer to the goal than the receiver (see corner kicks).
Offside is when any ball playing part of the attacking player is in front of second last defender ie, arm is fine up to the shoulder because in football the arm is not a ball playing part of the body.
I hope Winston First gets around 4.5% of the vote come election time. Soak up some of that protest vote that might otherwise go the ACT but not sufficient for him to get back into Parliament. The other odd ball and fringe parties like conservatives, brian tamaki party, outdoors etc can take a bit from the right wing as well. A realistic outcome on election night, Labour-Greens about equal with Nat-ACT and either needing the support of Maori party. Keep the Maori Health Authority, continual work on climate change and a CGT once the government is formed
Winston First will get 7-9% of the vote so long as he and Shane Jones keep their heads screwed on and don't start playing the Smart Arse Maori Tricks by letting their ultra ego's get in the way.