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6:00 am, October 17th, 2023 - 94 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Radio NZ reporting that Luxon thinks that special votes will be different this time because of the MIQ problems of a few privileged wankers who had trouble with MIQ that were heavily reported by the MSM.
Let's see if Luxon has this right or is talking rubbish consistent with most of his election campaign.
(Clue: In the last six elections special votes have favoured the Left in terms of additional seat(s). Also, special votes are only 12% from overseas roughly)
Luxon’s political naivety and lack of experience does show up frequently. The numbers on November 3rd are going to be interesting to have a look at. But I strongly suspect that they won’t reflect Luxon’s scenarios.
His schtick (and it often works) is to keep talking fast and so, in real time, reporters don't pick up on what he says. This was evident several times in that stand-up yesterday (when he made that comment about specials).
He said that he was unimpressed with how negotiations were conducted in the past. Inviting the obvious question (which the reporters, slow as ever, didn't pick up):
"So what did Key, English and Peters get wrong?".
There will be a lot more of this in the weeks ahead, and we can only hope that when he's PM, eventually the media start listening to what Luxon says. He's a gaffe machine.
Though there has been a significant shift to the Right and it may be that the Specials shifted right as well. Hope not!
National got many more votes in 2017 than 2023. Still lost 2 seats on specials.
Agree
Too many comparing w 2020 not 2017
ACT got .5% in 2017
Lab 9% more than 2023
Nats 6 % more than 2023
NACT still only 50% of vote in 2023
Not the bloodbath that’s been depicted- payback for discomfort of fighting a pandemic for sure
Luxon w backtrack very fast on his claims in Opposition that he has higher standards for his team than Labour-w 1 seat majority he will drop to the gutter in a heartbeat. Starting w making Collins a Minister
They may have also shifted right, but it is the relative shift that matters. Are they still a bit more left than the normal votes, even though more right overall than last election?
If they are still a bit more left, will still get the"special votes move result left" effect.
We voted in London last Thursday. Our fellow "Special Voters" were either travelling older people (like us), or younger people on their OE.
I wore the Peterloo T Shirt I had bought in Manchester to remind us of the consequences of the Boss Class making all the decisions.
That is what I am worried about ianmac.
A new leader for Labour before november could open the door for Winston and put pressure on Luxon to give more baubles to Peters! Making Luxon look not so arrogant.Having to grovel a bit more priceless.
If Labour choose a new leader it will be after Xmas and, as I said before, I'm hoping it's Robertson. McAnulty sounds good and seems to perform well too.
But it would be surprising if the Nats did not get 6 years (though with the "gaffe machine" in charge [thank you Obs] who knows), in which case Labour might keep Hipkins there and drop him after the next election if he loses.
The nats spent alot if money chasing the foriegn voters, so he might be right.
the local specials will be Maori party and nzf getting out the un enrolled,
seymour reckoned lefties are usually the specials because they arnt organized so act will get none😉
Posted 2 links that National chased the overseas vote.
https://thestandard.org.nz/how-the-special-votes-may-work-out/#comment-1973321
I’m so sorry we have failed you. I wonder what would happen under the new law to be introduced? And will we see blackmail and harassment unreported due to threats made based on landlords new powers?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/133125909/landlord-who-harassed-tenants-with-late-night-music-ordered-to-pay-9200
Whatever government we end up with, let it be of the people, by the people and for the people.
Profound.
Which people?
Quoting Lincoln
I think the new governments motto will be more like
"Success is the only earthly judge of right and wrong"
Adolf Hitler
Or, 'from each according to their vulnerability, to each according to their greed'
Cartoon by Steve Bell, the Guardian (source: https://shorturl.at/glJW2)
Each person rises to his level of incompetence.
-Laurence J Peter.
Has Luxon reached his?
Did you not hear the sonic boom?
That does not describe a National, Act government, Hunter. Nor does it describe a National, Act, NZ First government either. It is a government for their rich donors.
By the rich for the rich.
To be ruled by the rich.
Getting a bit tired of Luxon still saying that Labour didn't "deliver" when there is a long list of things they've done that he wants to quickly repeal. And many of them are things that help poorer people, such as FPAs, free prescriptions, etc. What he really meant is that labour didn't do many things that favoured the social class that votes National – the wealthy, business owners, farmers, landlords, extractors of various types of unearned income.
It was a clever strategy. It cast a pall of generalised incompetence over the government that was parroted in vox pops, while not disclosing too much about what National will actually do. There's no great insight in noticing that this was their strategy, but no journalist of note that I saw or read picked it.
Insufficiently clickbait worthy
But they did deliver – record house prices. I’m sick of that rhetoric too.
Agree AB, the vacuous "they didn't deliver" coupled with the dirt digging on ministers, ably aided by a compliant MSM, did much to unfairly destroy Labour's credibility.
AB. Reporters didn't really question and scrutinize National at all, often they ran National's lines.
What many, including the media seem to forget is that over two years of Labour's second term was taken up with keeping people alive and trying to prevent the economy from collapsing during the Covid-19 pandemic and a lot of Labour's agenda had to be put on the back burner. I recall in a post-cab presser, (can't remember which one), after Hipkins had made an announcement, the media asked Hipkins why he didn't do it earlier. His response, COVID-19.
To be fair, a whole bunch of folk who voted Labour in 2020, agreed with Luxon – "that Labour didnt deliver" and took their votes elsewhere
The traditonal Nat voters returned to the fold, (their votes were only ever on loan in anycase) the Centrists went to the Nats, and the more left swinging folk seemed to feel abandoned by Labours love affair with the Centrists – no new taxes – so went Green or TPM.
I would say there was a failure to communicate.
What did they want? The problem is their wishlist is unpalatable to actually say out loud so we end up with mumbles of nondelivery, worst govt ever, ruining the country.
I recall a trust poll on either election night, or just before. 43% Hipkins, 33% Luxon, pity they didn't have Seymour's trust numbers.
I'd have thought people would put 'trust' high on the list of attributes when deciding who to vote for. Apparently not an important factor.
"worst govt ever, ruining the country."
Frothing at the mouth much? – LMAO
This is the kind of tv reality dating show we need here: one that reveals all the damage and scar of lives lived into late middle age, old age, and opens the hatch door to the well of grief …
https://www.salon.com/2023/10/16/grandpa-needs-a-girlfriend-the-lonely-beautiful-truths-of-the-golden-bachelor/
… while making it attractive to watch.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300989987/kiwisaver-providers-tell-national-dont-tinker-with-scheme-require-nzers-to-save-more
Sound advice what's the odds national don't listen?
Well, well, well – who'd have thunk it eh. Oh yes, it's all Chippy and Grant's fault
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/133130729/inflation-cools-annual-rate-drops-to-56
There are redundancies everywhere. I have never had so many clients down sizing or just closing.
I suspect early next year we will start seeing this flow through. This is mainly in Wellington… so might just be a Wellington issue.
If act has its way you can ad 17 000 to your list by Christmas
Well, it's probably got something to do with the reduction in inflation.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/500353/national-expects-confidential-coalition-talks-peters-not-likely-to-negotiate-until-special-votes-counted
I paraphrase: let them eat ice cream.
The NZ media will have to sharpen up and sharpen their pens to keep the NZ public informed.
fucking hell. I guess it's not a surprise, and it's not out of the realms of how we do MMP (thanks to Peters). Still a bit of shock at this point in history. What are they hiding? Or is this just how they do things?
I don’t think they have anything to hide as such, at least not yet and not more than the usual skeletons in the closet.
I think it’s the typical RW arrogance and trying to avoid public scrutiny (Wayne Brown is of the same mould) possibly to cover up their incompetence. Layered over this is that Luxon is a corporate manager and those organisations are not known for their democratic ways and rather adhere to top-down vertical power structures.
All the signs were there during the election campaign for everyone to pay attention to if they so wished. The proletariat and precariat are in for a major shafting and middle NZ gets an ice cream + DVD, courtesy of Mother Nicola.
I do hope that some folks in the NZ Media (not the sycophants & shills, of course) will grow a spine and start doing to their jobs beyond writing click-bait headlines that pleases their advertisers and editors.
John Key in the negotiating team? More non MPs than MPs?
I'd expect Winston hates key after the 2008 dirty politics key led.
Ben & Jerry’s for almost no one
I do hope your tongue was firmly in your cheek.
Nope, 100% serious.
I think we will see pigs flying before our main stream media do what you say.
That said, Māori media, TV and Radio is very good, and are doing the hard yards already.
That’s not what I said, read my comment again.
Well, well, who'd 'ave thunk it eh. I suppose Grant and Chippy will get the blame for this.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/133130729/inflation-cools-annual-rate-drops-to-56
Sorry about the double posting – apologies.
Just another 7 or 8 times for the media at large to get the message Jilly Bee!
if anyone sees good analysis of how ACT's Treaty referendum proposal would impact on the Treaty, law, policy, and constitutional matters, can you please link me? I'd like to keep up with this one.
Here’s one: https://thespinoff.co.nz/atea/05-09-2023/what-would-act-in-government-mean-for-co-governance-and-the-treaty
If Seymour gets that up and going – It will be a society wide clusterfuck for years.
I have never been to a march or protest and frankly have never had much interest in in Maori specific issues but if FNACT pull that shit I am in boots and all – protests, occupations, civil disobedience et all.
Never been a radical but have been on quite a few protests over the decades. If Nact go down that road I'll be there too.
Barfly thumbs up!
Not what you asked for but I see an inexperienced, naive Prime Minister saying ok to Seymour's referendum, unaware of the shit storm it would unleash.
It would be our own Brexit.
I'm thinking Northern Ireland "the troubles"
Yep, if you like that kind of shit go live in Australia.
I had a wee smile at yr comment @ 12.1.1
You may find yrself shoulder to shoulder with some Wellies Parliament Protest veterans.
Guns, violence, and in the end civil war.
Māori are not having it.
And quite a few Pākehā agree with them.
We bring you the results of the 2023 general election. We would particularly like to thank our generous sponsors – the 1%, the corporate donors, Groundswell, Hobsons Pledge and nationwide Ford Ranger dealers – for their generous contributions to democracy.
This election was absolutely totally bought with big money.
Who says that money can't buy you happiness?
Taxpayers Union
I think that it's the Taxdodgers Union.
Real Estate especially Bayleys.
Little out, Halbert in. Damn.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-labours-chris-hipkins-to-stay-on-as-mp-uncertain-about-staying-as-leader-mp-resignations-also-on-the-cards/ALV73NEFMNCIXCDYL7I2HQLUNA/
Luxon will find it hard enough to control his own burgeoning caucus but he will struggle even more with the NZF and ACT caucuses. He only knows accountability to the accountants and to the company bottom line. To stay with airline terms, he won’t give a flying fuck about public servants or other people such as
bottom feedersbeneficiaries if they serve the sacrifice for surplus and profit, similar to his confidant & advisor, the Smiling Ass. His head Headchopper David Seymour has already ‘promised’ as much (see also https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-16-10-2023/#comment-1973173).Finally.
"Senior Labour MP Damien O’Connor told a journalist to "f***’ off"
https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/17/f-off-senior-labour-mp-swears-at-journalist/
Woohoo good on him, tv3 was doing pathetic hit pieces on labour mps this am, cornering them well they are obviously shell shocked and plastering there less thought through replys on TV,
Bridge ,lynch and Co are just sad little muck rakers
Labours true colours shining through once again now that the elections over
Haven't you got someone vulnerable to beat up?
Do you mean like the Labour Party? 😀
A politician swore? Summon the village elders, banish him!
That glass house you live in, it's falling to pieces with the stones you're chucking.
Wasn't Rosrwarn a breath of fresh air?? Goodbye champagne 🍾 hello lemonade. Priceless, man of the people. Not woke elite…I'd vote for him.
People can say some stupid things in the heat of the moment.
Every last politician quietly cheered O'Conner on.
It's obvious that Damien has a bladder problem because it must be an absolutely fluid retentive experience to have to run the media gauntlet just in order to gain relief. As an older male, I'd be saying fuck off to someone impeding my progress with microphones, cameras and 'gotcha' inanities. Good man, Damien O'Connor, known him for a long time.
They did that to Phil Goff at an annual conference about 12 years ago. Goff shook them off and got inside, so they hung around in front of the door and collared him as he walked back through the door. I witnessed it. Poor fella couldn't even go the loo in private.
Can’t say they have ever done that kind of thing to Nat ministers or MPs.
What utter rubbish.
The media gauntlet was waiting outside the caucus room when Collins was rolled – and MPs on a 'water break' were grilled as they passed through.
https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/politics/national-leadership-judith-collins-dumped-shane-reti-interim-leader-mark-mitchell-and-christopher-luxon-possible-candidates-simon-bridges-considering-leadership/
Of course all of the media do it – they have nothing else to do (no real political news to report in this interregnum) – and there's always the chance of a sound-bite or a bit of juicy gossip.
You mean they stood outside toilet doors waiting for National pollies to walk in and out of them? Golly, gosh, I've never seen that. They stand outside Caucus room entrances hoping for tasty morsels from hapless pollies all the time, but I've never seen them hanging around Nat. Party toilet doors.
I think you've got your doors mixed up. 😮
Possibly because there aren't any "Nat Party toilet doors" – these are standard toilets used by all politicians and staff…..
If you are saying that the media followed Goff into the bathroom – then that's a different issue. However, I don't think that this has ever been the case.
Media 'trapping' pollies en route to and from meetings is totally standard.
Okay so you were there were you? Remember it? A well known conference centre in Ellerslie? Think it was 2012. Ring a bell does it? Do you recall whereabouts the toilets were in relation to the main venue? Just asking because I remember there were several people who also witnessed the incident.
And btw, we all know pollies are trapped en route to and from meetings. Thought I'd let you know because you spend so much of your valuable time telling us things we already know.
Over to Bd who must have the last word.
Some one noticed that the media has suddenly reduced headlines on the crime stories. If this continues it will create a sense that there is less crime. Of course the constant highlighting of crime over the last few years, inflated that awful fear that we were all at risk in spite of the Stats, and it fed into the NAct strategy of failure of Government.
This is exactly why I genuinely hate the media and its shenanigans on polling, and law & order and crime.
I do hope that Baby Ruth gets finance in the new Government. And I do hope she is monitored closely by GR. She will imo be an absolute disaster. Going to be fun.
luxon said somewhere today that willis as treasurer was locked in!
Yup.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/500353/national-expects-confidential-coalition-talks-peters-not-likely-to-negotiate-until-special-votes-counted
Oh sweet summer child… thinking luxon has any say on who gers what ministerial position