Open mike 16/10/2023

69 comments on “Open mike 16/10/2023 ”

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1. observer 1

   16 October 2023 at 6:17 am

   Prediction: New Zealand won't have a government before December.

   Port Waikato by-election result: Dec 6. That extra seat (National, certainly) may be enough to deliver a majority for National plus ACT. (And it may not).

   There is no Cabinet until there is a government, and no government until there is a confirmed majority in the House (NOT a predicted majority, based on polls and reckons). Hipkins is caretaker PM until then.

   Expect a lot of impatience (and ignorance) in the weeks ahead. None of it changes the arithmetic and the law.
   • bwaghorn 1.1

     16 October 2023 at 6:44 am

     Nat act nzf would be stupid to weight, it's obvious that a threesome is there only option , they might as well get on with it.
     • Johnr 1.1.1

       16 October 2023 at 6:50 am

       Yep, I reckon F..N..Act it'll be. Buying popcorn.
     • mikesh 1.1.2

       16 October 2023 at 7:10 am

       That may change when the special votes are counted. National/ACT have 61 seats at present in a 121 seat parliament. If they were to lose a couple of seats in the specials they would have 59. Not enough to form a government. I'm pretty sure Winston doesn't much like ACT, and that being the case he might then support the left block, which would then form a government with 63 support seats to the right's 59 (or 60 with Port Waikato).
       • bwaghorn 1.1.2.1

         16 October 2023 at 7:22 am

         Don't dream it's over!
         • Burty 1.1.2.1.1

           16 October 2023 at 1:29 pm

           He'll,talk about desperation.People want change,not what we were selling,take stock,address our issues and change,or 8 more years I'm afraid.
           • weka 1.1.2.1.1.1

             16 October 2023 at 2:29 pm

             Mod note: I see you have used a number of different usernames over the years on TS. Please stick to Burty from now on.
       • Cricklewood 1.1.2.2

         16 October 2023 at 8:34 am

         There is zero chance of NZ1st supporting a left govt. You just have to look at where their funding has come from.
         • mikesh 1.1.2.2.1

           16 October 2023 at 8:43 am

           OK. I haven't looked at where their funding has come from, so I haven't taken that into account. Nevertheless I think Chippy should have waited for the specials before conceding.
           • Cricklewood 1.1.2.2.1.1

             16 October 2023 at 8:51 am

             Basically the same people as Act.
             • mikesh …

               16 October 2023 at 4:18 pm

               I thought that sort of thing only happens in America.
           • Craig H 1.1.2.2.1.2

             16 October 2023 at 2:31 pm

             Maybe, but on the numbers, the only pathway to a third term Labour government was NZ First which had been ruled by NZ First and Labour, so I can see why he conceded.
   • tsmithfield 1.2

     16 October 2023 at 8:47 am

     I predict National will do at least a deal of confidence and supply with NZ First regardless of the final results. Even if NACT ends up with a technical majority it will be wafer thin.

     National won't have to be in a position of scrambling for NZ First support should National lose a seat in a bi-election in the future, so expect to see a deal done in the near future.
     • Mike the Lefty 1.2.1

       16 October 2023 at 9:24 am

       I think that would be problematic for National given Seymour and Peters' mutual antipathy and differing policies, eg. immigration and retirement age.

       A formal coalition with the three would suit Luxon best because it absolutely assures a majority every time, but as the term roles on I think we will see some friction between the right wing ACT zealots and the more centrist National and NZ First groups.

       I agree that the most likely scenario will be a formal NACT coalition with NZ First guaranteeing confidence and supply but nothing else.

       There will certainly be a lot of brinkmanship on both sides, but Winston will have an advantage in that he is an old master of horse trading whilst Seymour is an amateur by comparison.
       • tsmithfield 1.2.1.1

         16 October 2023 at 10:25 am

         While there are some major differences, there is also a lot of commonality between the parties, for instance on law and order, anti-co-governance etc.

         I imagine Peters will be happy if he gets some key wins he can parade to before his supporters. Some of these wins may be in areas that Seymour doesn't care about, and things that don't cost a lot to impliment. For instance, I think Peters wants an enquiry into the government's covid response? Also, Peters does seem to be particularly attracted to the baubles of office. So, perhaps Peters for speaker?

         Confidence and supply would probably suit Peters as well, because it would give NZ First a lot more freedom to campaign against policies they don’t like.
         • Ed1 1.2.1.1.1

           16 October 2023 at 11:13 am

           Chris Finlayson was interviewed on Nat Radio repeating his claims that co-governance had worked well for National and all Labour had needed to do was explain it properly. I suspect he may be a bit of a lone voice until the new government faces a few Treaty issues – at present NActF seem to wish that they were in Australia where racism is so much more "Right"
       • Patricia Bremner 1.2.1.2

         16 October 2023 at 12:20 pm

         A pox on all their houses… and their coin. Those feeling they have won may find victory has a bitter after taste. Hollow men leaning on other hollow men.

         The stately dance of rules and power, best understood by Winston.

         Now the right have to prove they are superior.. not so easy and the wolves are all ready circling.
     • lprent 1.2.2

       16 October 2023 at 10:03 am

       It is unlikely to be in the near future. I remember that Peters usually doesn’t start negotiating seriously until official results are published. So the start of negotiations is likely to be November 3rd at the earliest. Those negotiations usually take quite a while when there are more than 2 parties involved. After all the disagreements go up exponentially according to the number of parties and factions of parties involved, and the time to negotiate between parties and inside parties goes up with the number of permutations of needed consultations.

       Especially where Winston is concerned because he is always very careful to look for an agreement that should survive a full term of office (which incidentally is why I’d expect him to control the NZF side – who’d trust Shane Jones to be careful). He treats coalition and support arrangements as the lawyer he was trained to be – as a clear and binding contract.
       • alwyn 1.2.2.1

         16 October 2023 at 10:20 am

         I don't think that Peters can wait till all the specials are in. At the previous elections he was the kingmaker and was willing to go with either side. He simply went with the one that would give him the most.

         He hasn't really got that option this time. His supporters, and I suspect some of his MPs simply wouldn't allow it and can you really see him going into a coalition with TPM?

         He has to start negotiations with National now or he will be faced with trying to join an already negotiated agreement between National and ACT with him trying to get an add-on agreement of his own. Better accept the inevitable and do a deal now.
   • SPC 1.3

     16 October 2023 at 8:57 am

     No. The PW BE result is a known.

     Once the election results are certified post specials, the coalition can be established.

     It's now 61-60 and will most likely become NACT down to 60-61 (hopefully 59-62) with the add on in December.

     Peters will be necessary to have confidence, and confidence allows ministry appointments.

     Thus in November there will be some sort of outcome. Threeway or a National government with 2 support partners (Keys preferred arrangement 2008-2017)
     • Bearded Git 1.3.1

       16 October 2023 at 1:04 pm

       SPC…you are forgetting the by election and the extra overhang it will bring….so really it is 62-60 to NACT now but that will become either 61-61 or 60-62.

       It is feasible TPM will win one more seat….then it will be either 61-62 or 60-63
       • SPC 1.3.1.1

         16 October 2023 at 1:15 pm

         with the add on in December.

         They can act before then, once the election result is certified, without the extra seat.
2. Dennis Frank 2

   16 October 2023 at 7:06 am

   Just watched Ryan Bridge interviewing Chloe, with David Seymour. She made the point about binary framing that needed to be made, and stressed it again once or twice further.

   Seymour criticised James Shaw for warning of violence. Think he also described Tamihere as unhinged for predicting the closing down of cities in Aotearoa.

   Whilst polarising is natural behaviour for leftists and rightists, the treaty is an unsuitable topic for doing that on: it more or less guarantees escalation of racism. A commons framework is best, but since folks haven't been educated to do that we'll probably default into multiculturalism as next-best option.
   • pat 2.1

     16 October 2023 at 6:42 pm

     Shaw making the mistake he has accused others of making.
3. Dennis Frank 3

   16 October 2023 at 7:15 am

   Heh. Afghanistan thrashed England at the Cricket World Cup! https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/oct/15/england-humbled-by-afghanistan-in-historic-cricket-world-cup-shock

   Thanks largely to Gurbaz’s brilliant, 57-ball 80 Afghanistan set England a target of 285, in theory eminently achievable on this high-scoring ground. But it was with the ball that they truly shone, and while spin has proved their great strength their seamers made some of England’s look distinctly third‑rate

   Whoopee!
4. Dennis Frank 4

   16 October 2023 at 7:25 am

   The Spinoff uncovers an election hero:

   The CTU kept its in-house economist chained to an iron abacus in a basement stats cave, churning out critiques of what were euphemistically described as National’s “heroic” numbers. Renney alleged that National’s spending plans were underfunded by $3 to $5 billion.

   He found the party’s much-touted $252-a-fortnight tax cut would only benefit 3,000 families. He worked out how much raising the retirement age will cost younger and middle-aged people. He forlornly tugged at the binds holding him to the abacus until the loud speaker above his stretcher crackled to life to broadcast a stern reprimand from CTU president Richard Wagstaff.

   At times during the campaign, it felt like Renney was the only person in Aotearoa allowed to do maths. He did more journalism than most journalists and more economic analysis than the entire Labour research unit combined. National MPs wrote tweet threads slagging him off. They put out PR releases accusing him of “gutter politics”. One thing they never did: prove him wrong.

   However he wasn't the only reality-checker…

   Three people who collectively became known as “economists from across the political spectrum” gave Craig Renney a brief break from his confinement in the CTU maths cave in September, taking it upon themselves to run the numbers on the revenue National projected it would take in from its foreign homebuyers tax. They found that rather than being – in Castalia’s words – “possible and plausible”, those projections were instead “fantastical and quite bullshit”. In their analysis, National’s tax plan went from “fully funded” to “about $530 million short”.

   But hey, that economists were created to make astrologers look good was pointed out long ago by JK Galbraith, so National will just make it up as it goes along as usual.

   https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/16-10-2023/winners-losers-big-losers-and-gigantic-losers-from-the-2023-general-election
   • bwaghorn 4.1

     16 October 2023 at 7:35 am

     National will just make it up as it goes along

     Na they'll have a plan , they will have been lying by omission.

     The poor will pay they always do under national.
     • Roy Cartland 4.1.1

       16 October 2023 at 8:16 am

       Knaves, not fools. They know their numbers don't work, now it doesn't matter. They've got the votes and to them, that gives them the mandate to do as they please.
       • Barfly 4.1.1.1

         16 October 2023 at 9:13 am

         "Success is the only earthly judge of right and wrong"
5. Stephen D 5

   16 October 2023 at 7:51 am

   My fist meme. Buggered if Ican work out how to post an image.

   https://www.canva.com/design/DAFxWgvUM0U/3WUwbfbI0GafCpDHMj3dtg/edit?utm_content=DAFxWgvUM0U&utm_campaign=designshare&utm_medium=link2&utm_source=sharebutton

   

   

   [lprent: You can’t post an image here. You can link to one. It is done with the comment button to the left of a smiley face.

   However your link is to some kind of canva editing, presumably on your own account. You need to export the image in some generally accessible format – jpg, png, or webp rather than linking to a javascript editor. Load it to somewhere that accepts public images (which isn’t here – I don’t provide a image server), and then link to the public image. ]
6. SPC 6

   16 October 2023 at 8:51 am

   That is some game France-South Africa QF.
   • tsmithfield 6.1

     16 October 2023 at 11:22 am

     Yes. The draw has been arse about face this time. Both the ABs/Ireland and France/Springboks games should have been the semi-finals.
7. Koff 7

   16 October 2023 at 9:26 am

   Victor Billot takes the piss out of Luxon / Seymour: (the only thing funny I can find about the GE result!)

   https://www.newsroom.co.nz/an-ode-for-the-new-prime-minister-1
   • Mac1 7.1

     16 October 2023 at 9:54 am

     Two great images.

     "King Luxon consults his in-flight video

     On 21st Century End Times Corporate Leadership" and

     "In a desperate last measure,

     King Luxon consults his moral compass,

     But it swings wildly in meaningless circles."

     So much there. What is the source of wisdom? An 'on-flight video" on 'corporate leadership'. What times are we in- the 'end-times'. Hipkins had asked about Luxon's moral compass. What direction does it point? 'in meaningless circles'.

     The power of poetry to critique rulers.
   • Patricia Bremner 7.2

     16 October 2023 at 10:40 am

     Sadly Brilliant.
8. Reality 8

   16 October 2023 at 12:04 pm

   Is there to be an investigation into the voting hiccups both before voting day and on the day? Curious that it appeared to be mainly South Auckland affected.
   • Anne 8.1

     16 October 2023 at 12:38 pm

     And apparently there were hiccups in Te Atatu, West Auckland where Phil Twyford is hanging on by a few votes. Interesting they should occur in Labour strongholds. I see no reason why the "caretaker Labour government" could not undertake an investigation into what exactly happened.

     Dita De Boni made the following comment in this video (slightly paraphrased)

     I find it outrageous that anyone could suggest Luxon won by his own efforts. He was bankrolled into office by the richest people in the land…..

     Mihirangi Forbes pointed out:

     He wouldn't front up to any of the Maori current affairs programmes during the campaign….

     Both reflections suggest to me he is going to be a cowardly PM who runs away from difficult decision making and who refuses to face up to racial tensions in particular: He is going to be all sound bites and no action!
     • Bearded Git 8.1.1

       16 October 2023 at 1:11 pm

       On RadioNZ they said Luxon used just one Maori word in his acceptance speech…"iwi" which he said once
     • Gravedodger 8.1.2

       16 October 2023 at 7:50 pm

       Not unlike a recent Prime Minister who ended a long association with a weekly appointment on Hosking Breakfast.

       An expectation that PM might be expected to be across all Government policy and actions was too demanding?
       • Anne 8.1.2.1

         16 October 2023 at 8:36 pm

         First, your name gives you away as a dim witted troll.

         Second, under no circumstances should any female – least of all the PM – have to put up with that misogynistic asshole called Hosking. I would have thought less of Jacinda if she had continued to put up with his demeaning and puerile tactics. He wasn't worth a minute of her time.
         • lprent 8.1.2.1.1

           17 October 2023 at 8:47 am

           Well put.
   • SPC 8.2

     16 October 2023 at 3:30 pm

     The media noted the late delivery on the cards to some areas, including south Auckland, and the online rolls going down in the middle of the day.

     But in south Auckland, late cards meant limited early voting, the online rolls going down made it hard for out of electorate voting (specials) – there were long queues as a result and then on top of that a lack of forms meant many left without voting.

     At 7pm on RNZ on election night a reporter said what he observed made him disgusted.

     I am only guessing but he would have thought all of that only happened in the USA in areas where voting was discouraged.

     A conspiracy theorist might suspect they really wanted a NACT coalition without Peters and tried their best.
     • Patricia 2 8.2.1

       16 October 2023 at 5:19 pm

       I voted at Portage Road New Lynn Booth at 2pm and the 3 staff were sharing one nearly empty book of voting forms. And did not know if fresh supplies were coming so were directing voters to other voting venues.
       • Anne 8.2.1.1

         16 October 2023 at 5:34 pm

         Another strong Labour voting region. It sounds like gross incompetence at best on the part of the Electoral Commission.

         I wonder if something similar happened in Mt Roskill? Both Roskill and New Lynn candidates narrowly lost on the night. They may return after special votes but hell… its starting to look bad.
     • Anne 8.2.2

       16 October 2023 at 5:29 pm

       At 7pm on RNZ on election night a reporter said what he observed made him disgusted

       In that case there is definitely something to investigate. It does not follow there was a conspiracy to deliberately undermine the ability for people to vote, but it does suggest it was incompetent management which left the region with insufficient voting papers and faulty computer outages.

       You can be sure it would not have been allowed to happen in electorates dominated by Pakeha. There was a polling booth opposite my home in the North Shore electorate and hardly anyone used it. I'll bet they had many hundreds (at least) of voting papers left over.
9. Ffloyd 9

   16 October 2023 at 12:26 pm

   I do hope that Chris Hipkins decides to stay on as Labour leader. He is probably feeling quite wounded at the moment but once he’s had a bit of time for reflection he will realise that he was not responsible for the loss to John Keys lot. Sorry…….. I meant Christopher Luxon. Luxon is going to be sweating to deliver NZ to the millionaires and billionaires after all the millions they ‘donated’ to Nact and Whinny.

   Chris H just needs to look to the All Blacks with their win over Ireland after having been beaten by them in their last 4 encounters. They took on the mantle of underdogs and used it as inspiration to get back up and show everyone what they could do. So they worked on different scenarios and approaches and with grit and determination and working as a well oiled unit they did it.

   Backing CH all the way.
   • bwaghorn 9.1

     16 October 2023 at 12:50 pm

     Na he should do a year then move on , he didn't sell us a vision in the campaign, he went against his senior ministers with his captains calls , he wanted the ridiculous gst off vege policy,
     • Bearded Git 9.1.1

       16 October 2023 at 1:15 pm

       I would like to see Robertson as leader….I know he has said he would never stand again but he has the brains eloquence and sense of humour to destroy Luxon in 2026
       • bwaghorn 9.1.1.1

         16 October 2023 at 3:47 pm

         Blood baths need to be avoided but so does anointing your next leader, Clark ,key and Ardern did it it doesn't work.
     • Patricia Bremner 9.1.2

       16 October 2023 at 1:21 pm

       Labour do not forgive losing leaders. We need to go back to the grassroots and do active listening and a lot less top down. The Greens have this right, and they are the future imo.
     • Grey Area 9.1.3

       16 October 2023 at 1:40 pm

       Good summary. I rated Hipkins for about a week. Then there was the policy bonfire, the call on any wealth tax, etc. And I stopped rating him.
       • Descendant Of Smith 9.1.3.1

         16 October 2023 at 2:54 pm

         I'm in your court as well.

         I dunno whether he just wanted to show he was making his mark but the whole cancelling this, this and this and ruling out this and this to me was just letting National control the narrative. Far too responsive to pressure – whatever happened to good sound policy and researched based decision making.

         It just came across as throwing a little tanty while trying to show he was decisive.

         I guess if he had opposed the things he cancelled when they were first proposed I might have some thought that he was at least being consistent and not simply being impulsive but saw no evidence of that.
       • tc 9.1.3.2

         16 October 2023 at 4:04 pm

         Agreed, chippy moved into the centre and got run over by both sides, there's a lesson there.

         His captains calls on policy and tax were calculated risks which backfired IMO as polls show a wealth tax has widespread support. Also not explaining co-governance to skewer NACT with along with so many other areas he allowed their narrative oxygen instead of smothering it with facts and history.

         I do hope he stays on long enough for a new leader who grasps the importance of working the left block as a cohesive unit can take over.
         • Grey Area 9.1.3.2.1

           16 October 2023 at 7:28 pm

           And as has been already said, a left bloc where Labour is a partner (not the leader sitting at the head of the table anymore) and has to work with the Greens and TPM, rather than thinking they are the big player throwing crumbs to everyone else.

           Labour are a centrist, neoliberal party that needs to find its soul and heart again and move left if it wants to be part of a strong left bloc to resist Nactional over the next three years.

           Being not so shit as Nactional is not good enough. Is Labour really going to acknowledge they got it wrong by unleashing neoliberal Rogernomics on New Zealand? Somehow I doubt it.
10. SPC 10

    16 October 2023 at 12:53 pm

    Who would have thought it, that the England team that made it into the semi-finals would be the one with the larger oval ball.

    Afghanistan doing what the ref and the hand of Farrell would not allow Fiji to try to do late in the QF.

    If the English surprise the Boks, a 2019 rematch looms … in the oval ball game.

    Barring Maradona like hand bandit actions of course.

    Improvised sporting drama, like watching larpers who are good at what they do.
    • Bearded Git 10.1

      16 October 2023 at 1:20 pm

      Hammered by Afghanistan….larf…much deserved after that stitch up 4 years ago
    • bwaghorn 10.2

      16 October 2023 at 3:51 pm

      Speaking of hand ball , how the @#$% does Smith get sin binned for his picking touching the ball in a reaction situation, and the bloody great saffa smacks the ball into the dirt with no hint of trying to catch it and it's play on?? A bit of consistency would be good!
      • SPC 10.2.1

        16 October 2023 at 4:02 pm

        The ruling was that the ball did not go forward, the guy had such long reach he was able to lineout tap it back.
        • bwaghorn 10.2.1.1

          16 October 2023 at 6:12 pm

          French cowardice, taking a shot 9 minutes from time when you're 4 points behind , they didn't deserve it,

          Just watched 2nd half.
          • Bearded Git 10.2.1.1.1

            17 October 2023 at 7:33 am

            good point bwag…I forgot that. The AB's would have run it.
      • Michael P 10.2.2

        16 October 2023 at 7:31 pm

        Smith touch made it a deliberate knock on the other one went backwards
11. Jilly Bee 11

    16 October 2023 at 1:34 pm

    Just read in N Z Herald that Kiri Allan has set up a new consulting business. All power to you Kiri and I hope your new venture succeeds. Of course the Herald had to have a wee snarky comment at the end about her voice mail box, yes, it needs to be corrected and I'm sure it will in the fullness of time. Kia kaha Kiri, you go girl.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/former-labour-mp-kiri-allan-launches-new-consultancy-business-months-after-losing-cabinet-position/AXGQI5WIY5EAHJD2YLT5R336YY/
12. Ffloyd 12

    16 October 2023 at 1:36 pm

    My husband heard Key on tv stating “we won”. He is micro managing National. IMO he is still serving his American masters. he has never gone away. He has popped back up to manage Luxon…… Luxon does not have the wit or the ability to think on his feet.
    • Kat 12.1

      16 October 2023 at 2:40 pm

      "Luxon is also in communication with key figures from the John Key era, including Key himself, Bill English, their chief of staff Wayne Eagleson, and former minister Steven Joyce………………….."

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300989574/nz-election-2023-live-luxon-taking-advice-from-john-key-as-he-starts-coalition-talks

      The "voters who are never wrong” (Luxon campaign remark) just voted in a hairless programmable glove puppet version of Key set to a rewind Nu Zilland back to 2017………..

      Looking at the voting numbers it is now beyond a shadow of a doubt that at least half of the electorate are either stupid or asleep…….quite possibly both….
    • fender 12.2

      16 October 2023 at 2:44 pm

      That's not surprising at all; Keys puppet and only in it for the same reasons too.

      Question time will be funny, he couldn't ask a question, how's he going to answer any. Perhaps he'll have a phone to his ear so Key can tell him what to say.
      • Janice 12.2.1

        16 October 2023 at 4:03 pm

        He will make sure that the speaker he appoints is programmed to say 'I believe he has addressed the question' when the opposition appeal to the speaker that the question hasn't been answered.
      • tc 12.2.2

        16 October 2023 at 4:07 pm

        Maybe he'll take JK's lead and never show up to parliament thursdays, immediate risk reduction.
        • Anne 12.2.2.1

          16 October 2023 at 5:44 pm

          Prime ministers and the main Opposition leaders to not attend Thursday question time. Their places are usually taken by the deputies.
13. SPC 13

    16 October 2023 at 3:42 pm

    It's a test of nerve for bureaucrats in Wellington.

    Should they find alternative employment before they find out whether they are laid off, or not? If they wait, there is the risk of competing with others for jobs next year.

    Some might run down their leave entitlement to do some job search and or work as a temp to build up their non government resume.

    Then there is the option of transfer to Oz federal and state government jobs. Or local government work here.

    Then there is the sabbatical to a post graduate course at university (popular for those with working partners). Maybe teaching …

    Those who stay might face increased work pressures, as per understaffed wards etc. Or the horror of working for W and I under NACT/NZF

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