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6:00 am, September 25th, 2017 - 192 comments
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The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
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Now that the Māori Party are out of the game, can we put an end to these outrageous tobacco tax increases that are causing so much crime/violence, hardship and harm?
If National gets back in, maybe. Not much chance of a government involving Labour and the Greens doing anything about it, though.
The greatest harm is to the addicted poor – National loves it
Yeah, it’s called “tough love” [sarc].
While it does disproportionately harm the addicted poor more, they’re far from the only ones suffering.
One shop-owner has been killed while a number have been brutally assaulted and stabbed with many fearing for their lives.
Innocent children buying lollies have been terrifyingly caught up and it’s only a matter of time before there are more related deaths. So the harm is widespread.
Is thefe a law that says businesses must sell cigarettes?
If that’s intended to imply that shop owners can avoid being beaten or killed by armed robbers simply by not selling cigarettes, it’s on a par with the view that women can avoid being raped by not dressing provocatively.
I know. My tongue was in my cheek because that is precisely what people say to women… but not to dairy owners cos that is money not just dignity and mental health
More children are physicalky and sexually abused than dairy owners beaten… more women raped than dairy owners beaten. A dairy group get regular media coverage prior to an election… didnt see Rape Prevention getting the same air time
Having plenty of security-camera footage of non-White crims being violent helps quite a bit with the media coverage – journos love that stuff.
And it being about money not women and childrens lives… that helps too
It’s not only about money, Tracey. The lives of dairy owners, their family, staff and customers (which include women and children) are also on the line.
It’s not only rape victims that suffer from loss of dignity and mental health. Seems you can’t imagine how terrifying, thus how stressful it is for them just going to work every day not knowing if the next customer is going to rob and harm them.
No. But they are a cornerstone product that most dairies find they have to sell. They generate and add to sales.
Surely, you’re not implying (thus overlooking or diminishing the impact of repeated tax increases) it’s their fault?
If selling cigarettes puts you in harms way you make a choice.
The ongoing annual increases in tax resulting in the increase in violent robberies is forcing some to make that hard choice, Tracey.
While others, such as the Government, are choosing to spend our tax dollars (which could be going to better use elsewhere) on increasing police numbers and prison beds.
Additionally, just because they decide not to sell cigarettes it doesn’t mean they will be out of harms way. Anyone can become a victim of a robbery as more are forced to desperate measures looking for money to buy smokes.
Some are choosing more unorthodox methods.
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/312239/auckland-dairy-owner-hires-teens-for-security-back-up
tracey
The law of returns and stocking what the customer wants to buy and it’s legal. Let people have cigarettes in moderation, smoke-free parks is just councillors being twee and self-righteous. There are worse things, and bad deaths from other things, we have them and have to put up with them like other unwanted pests. Try to moderate, but those doing so should remember smoking is popular amongst the lower paid and hospitality sectors. So going higher every year just puts it into the fancy drug level.
You mean, apart from the various ways they’ll reduce inequality and lift lower quintile incomes…
If cigarettes are taxed to the point where a black market in them becomes lucrative, reducing inequality and raising incomes won’t prevent people joining that black market.
OAB WTF Get real.
Well, here in Germany the election results from 24 September are even less clear and considerably more problematic than those in NZ. The conservative CDU/CSU look to have about 33% (down from a projected 37% or thereabouts), which means that only Merkel would be in a position to take the chancellorship. Theoretically, there are two possible coalitions, a continuation of the current grand coalition with the SPD (about 21%), or a three-party coalition with the CDU/CSU, the Greens (about 9%) and the comparatively neoliberal FDP (about 10%). Numerically, other coalitions are possible, but everybody has ruled out working with the third largest party, the AfD (about 13%), a populist bundle of xenophobes, Eurosceptics and fascists who act as a magnet for the protest vote; the CDU/CSU would also not go into coalition with the more truly left social-democratic party, Die Linke (about 9%).
Moreover, the SPD has ruled out returning to the grand coalition and will sit on the cross-benches. The only possibility, therefore, is CDU/CSU – FDP – Green. Exactly how those three would agree on a viable programme for government is unclear. Although unlikely, the prospect of new elections has already been mentioned, and the election-night count isn’t even finished yet.
Amidst historic lows for the two main parties, the large presence of the AfD is a source of considerable disquiet amongst the other parties and the bulk of the electorate, not least because its rise has been so sudden; it only surfaced at the previous federal election, in 2013, in which at 4.7% it narrowly failed to break the 5% threshold to enter the Bundestag, but since then has taken significant chunks in several state parliaments (sometimes over 20%), and entered the European Parliament.
Yes Hanswurth.
my Son is there in Baveria now for a month visit after he left November 2015 when the ‘flood and surge of ‘immigratants’ from north Africa flooded there in 2015.
Now it seems as destined for mass ’emmigation’ will develop now again right, with the arrival of the new southern Baverian provincial Natzi – Fascist party right?
Baveria was the centre of the hotbed of Hitler’s rise to prominence during the 1920’s-30’s.
Trouble abounds now, me thinks.
Trump…AfD… those promoting dislike for our neighbours are rewarded.
James Shaw’s proposal to plant 1.2 billion trees – can we do it anyway? I started yesterday. 40 so far, another 60 today (I have helpers!). I know it doesn’t seem many, but these were big trees (4 year-old apples), as tall as I am. I’ve got seedlings from all sorts of fruit and nut trees coming up right now, so by the time Christmas rolls around, I’ll have planted a few hundred; don’t want James Shaw wearing himself out doing all 1.2 billion by himself!
At the end of the week, add a dozen macrocarpas and a handful of stone fruit trees to the tally.
I need to cut 20,000 down before i get to plant 60,000 .
Exporting logs to China?
The logs will go where they are most needed.
If its Chinese houses that get built with them why would I have a problem with that?
Actually, they probably won’t. ‘The Market’ has failed to deliver on that since, well, forever.
You should have a problem with your fellow Kiwis not having houses because the resources needed to build them are going offshore.
If you think logs going offshore has anything at all to do with the housing problem in this country you really do need to pull your head out of your arsehole.
Logs going offshore decreases the logs that can be used to build houses here of which we have a significant shortage.
You’re the one with his head up his arse as you just don’t want to accept that you’re part of the problem.
A couple of points for you.
1. There is no shortage of logs or timber available in New Zealand.
2. You have no idea whatsoever of the impact that timber has on the price of a house.
A friend of mine does the books for a Vietnamese outfit. They’ve just invested in a suite of finger jointing plant – not here of course. But if we had more in the way of such plants here local costs could come down. Growers can’t really fix that – though government soft loans probably could. A better investment than Mediaworks any day of the week.
1. Then why is the price so bloody high?
2. Yes I do – several family in the construction industry.
david C
You have to sell the logs to who wants to buy them. They are obviously part of your production plan for your property.
I understand that there is a timber shortage for houses in NZ.
Those are two things that I believe are true.
Breaks my heart to see mountains of logs at Lyttelton port waiting export. Another low value commodity going off shore. Why aren’t we adding value to our raw products and reaping the benefits?
i guess there is no real profit margin here.
i hate driving here on the country side, its so ugly. On one side dairy and nothing but and on the other side clear logging. I can not see the appeal to any tourists.
Twenty years ago it was still pretty but now? its about time we wake up and smell the bullshit.
No one wants to purchase finished timber from the bottom of the world. Lead times are too long and quality is impossible to control.
what ever floats your boat.
Good to hear how it is for you David C. We get a bit jaundiced about how things are done in this country compared to what would give us more value added. But it is interesting to hear the facts as they stand. What sort of timber. Good old pinus radiata?
Probably we would like to see finished timber made up into quality furniture that we could sell as from plantation timber rather than that made from stolen commons in Indonesia or elsewhere. Perhaps we could sell quality in kitset style like ikea, and call ours kakariki or some kiwi name. If there were people who understood the market and the native or special timber ready to go when wanted, so that it could be dried and seasoned under cover properly for two? years etc. then we could take some orders and be ready to supply. A public/private partnership I think, so that keen and knowledgable skilled people could get the operating and capital funding they needed, and use it well and effectively. Nice dream.
@David C
Thank you for explaining that you think that NZ can’t compete as a trading nation and that NZers are useless.
+100
The why food prices are going, the more fruit producing trees planted the better.
its more expensive to grow your own apples rather than buy them.
Spraying is the cost.
Plums are the fruit to grow.
I doubt there’s a large percentage of home gardeners growing their own and spraying.
Rubbish.
I never spray. Some apples have bugs in them. I cut them out. I’m clever like that.
100% chairman good call.
David we don’t need to use expensive chemical sprays, try natural fungicides & bug sprays as there are plenty.
Yes plums are excellent, we make wine and black doris make the best table wine, far better than grapes so you made a good call.
had to rip out a couple of small plum trees after some sort of fungal thing. The others seem to be doing ok this spring, though.
Quite a few trees for a typical-sized backyard 🙂
Omegas and doris are awesome.
We have some weird early cropping hybrid thing too, ripens before xmas.
Have an apple tree ” Priscilla”, blight resistant variety
never sprayed it in 20 years Just a bit of seaweed and comfrey.
Lots of perfect blight free apples
Black doris. Watties still can them and I regularly buy one of their big cans. Even the juice is thick and delicious.
I’m of to plant apple and plum trees alongside of the estuary, once I’ve finished my coffee. Those trees will grow, without any fanfare, amongst the scrubby stuff the council can’t be bothered clearing and produce fruit for anyone wandering that way. I’ve already put 20 in, planted over the past couple of years. Today, I’m planting an apple that came from an old tree growing in Horseshoe Bay, on Stewart Island. We grafted two for the Open Orchard project, so this one’s a spare. Anyone who really believes there will be a need for food growing locally as the future continues to unfold, might like to consider ways to plant their neighbourhood also.
“Those trees will grow, without any fanfare, amongst the scrubby stuff the council can’t be bothered clearing and produce fruit for anyone wandering that way”
Good on ya Robert, you’re a real Johnny Appleseed.
“Anyone who really believes there will be a need for food growing locally as the future continues to unfold, might like to consider ways to plant their neighbourhood also.”
Indeed.
Chuckle.
From Catriona MacLennan on Newsroom: Let 2020 be the year of the ‘povertyquake’
Some excellent sense about the indictment on NZ media and Bill English in the take down of Metiria Turei, and on Bling’s very bad record on treatment of beneficiaries:
The article concludes:
Well said. But upon deaf ears it falls.
And the irony is the probability of having housing allowance rorter double dipper from Dipton leading the next government.
Yes Carolyn Nth, many of the younger new Labour candidates have a strong sense of needing to do more to create warm inclusive communities.
They are energetic charismatic and carry others along with warmth and hope.
Tamati Coffey and Kiri Allen come to mind. Along with Jacinda ofourse.
I like what I’ve seen of Kiri Allan. She does seem really passionate about improving things for low income and Maori people on the east coast.
Ardern has her strengths, but I don’t find her position on anti-poverty that convincing. Probably she believes she means it, but I don’t see it in her framing or the language and policies she uses when referring to it. She’s smart, articulate an knowledgeable about policy, and will probably be a very good leader.
But, I question her “passion” to end poverty.
Ardern seems to be talking to the middle classes (for their approval) – hence probably why “a href=”https://www.libertas.digital/blog/2017/9/25/the-jacinda-effect-visualised-in-auckland”>Labour mainly picked up votes this week in “relatively urban and/or affluent” electorates.
My preference is for the Green Party policies for tackling poverty and re-developing our social welfare system.
Sorry about the gramma it’s just I have to use an different format to get this out there
I feel Like Alla Bundy from love and marriage all ways having to part with my hard earned cash to my children but that what parents do.I brought my children up during mostly Labour,S government so it was a lot easy to survive in those days and we had no parents help as the roles were reversed we had to support our parents so in reality I’m happy that we can help our children.
Now To James my grandmother told me never kick anything when it’s down and like all neo liberals do you go and kick US LEFTY,S ON THIS SITE WHEN WE ARE DOWN classical NEO LIBERALS behavior I have no need to compare you with me or say it as everyone gets the picture.
If that all the Muppets have got well I say no more.
I have to remember that I have a public profile so I will be more careful from now on . The Muppets have COUNTED THERE CHICKENS and to the Lefty,S I say Kia kaha
Why arent the Greens banging on Bills door this morning looking to do a deal?
They have leverage like no other time in the last 21 years.
If Greens want action on climate or rivers or housing then pick one and they will get that one.
Greens or Winston should be the choice that Bill is forced to make, not how many baubles to offer Winston.
Perfect is the enemy of good. The Greens should go for most good.
You mean a conversation like this:
Bill: “Hi James. I woke up this morning and decided to completely reverse 80 years of National Party ideology. I’m going to create a society that is more equal and more sustainable rather than less. I know that’s what you want too. Sure farmers will hate me, business will hate me, the speculators and the landlords will hate me, all our donors will desert me, Judith will knife me, but it’s the right thing to do, so please come on board!”
James: “Um. Gee Bill. Let me think about that. Have you been on the turps again?”
This ^^^^^^
lolz
AB.
Greens could pick an issue and make it their raision d’etre.
Clean rivers? Housing? climate? Pick one and make it a drop dead bottom line for support and they would get more done in the next tree years than they have achieved in the last 21 years.
the fact that they would be in the tent would also give them a voice on other things, they may get ignored or told to piss off 90% of the time but there would be subtle things they could do.
The Greens in opposition yet again and they will achieve zero outside the tent raging against Winston who hates them.
For me I would love to see the Greens shove it up Winston and consign him to the political wilderness where he belongs! 🙂
Keep dreaming.
The Greens aren’t going to dig you lot out of this one. The tories made their bed under FPP rules, now they can lie in it.
It says it all that you want the Greens to choose between housing, climate change, or clean rivers. And normal human being would ask why National isn’t diong all that in the first place. None of that should be debated – we know dozens of major waterways that were once drinkable are now no longer swimmable, and the nat response was to redefine “swimmable”. We know houses are making people sick and costing us billions, yet the nats oppose even token efforts towards warrant of fitness. The cars people live in have to be safer than many homes, ffs. As for climate change, the nats think an easily defrauded system of credits is the same as dealing with it, while building more roads and ignoring more efficient transport options.
You think these are expendable bargaining chips? Get a soul.
I think they really do see such things as expendable bargaining chips, hence the incomprehensible (to us) suggestions from right-wingers that the Greens should do a deal with National.
Mcflock you get todays top prize for climate change /environmental so I quote your blog;
“As for climate change, the nats think an easily defrauded system of credits is the same as dealing with it, while building more roads and ignoring more efficient transport options.”
McFlock, try our following position (below) from our “Environment Centre press release” on your well picked issue of carbon transport emmissions road vs rail and other options, this was to make sure the greens and others should focus on.
Our Environment Centre (CEAC) has received more than 2000 letters and petitions from residents from Napier to Gisborne fed up with 24/7 heavy truck traffic waking them all hours and poisoning the air with diesel smells.
People complain of overwhelming exhaust smells and heavy soot covering their homes since the rail service stopped three years ago.
Our centre believes the environmental impacts being felt must be taken into account when considering the saving of the Gisborne/Napier rail. It is vital for the public health and well-being of our communities and future generations to retain the rail link.
How safe is the air that we breathe?
The two pollutants which give most cause for concern are the toxic gas nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and particulate matter (PM2.5). Earlier this year, the UK’s highest court ruled the Government must take action to cut NO2 pollution.
The UK has been in breach of EU limits for nitrogen dioxide so it (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) published a consultation on draft plans to improve air quality.
This problem is now occurring in our cities and towns along heavy freight truck routes and rail is recognised as the answer for movement of freight and passengers.
Governments knew this 16 years ago when they conducted a study of rail versus road freight emissions, so why has the treasury advised we close all regional rail in New Zealand?
Evidence: the New Zealand Government in 1999 produced an “Impacts of Rail Transport on Local Air Quality” report.
Related articles:
The MoT Fuels and Energy Management group report shows how fuel-efficient and low-pollution rail transport really is. # 363.73926 RAI # 4037.
The report confirmed that rail freight per tonne per kilometre travelled had extremely low NOx levels compared with trucking’s freight per tonne per km higher levels (four times) of all harmful pollution emissions.
Quote from page 34 of “Impacts of Rail Transport on Local Air Quality” report: 5.5: Locomotive Emissions; Opportunities for Reduction.
“Based on these inventory results, there does not appear to be a specific need to target the emissions from the rail sector in managing local air quality.
The only emission of any significance from locomotives is of NOx but the output relative to other combustion sources is still minimal in terms of total activity measures.”
Why the Government needs to support rail for public urban residential health & safety:
-Evidence of much higher diesel air emissions emerging, thanks to the Volkswagen diesel scandal.
-Doubts are emerging about our urban air quality, public health and safety and emissions of truck freight 24/7 through our urban residential zones as New Zealand has set no standards.
-Since the VW diesel scandal, similar diesel truck emissions cheating was uncovered.
-No safeguards for communities near truck routes.
-We need the protection of public health agencies along with MoT oversight.
Government, please heed our call for the reinstatement of provincial rail services, to protect the health and well-being of all our regional communities, as overseas governments are doing.
well, that got out of hand quickly.
David C, the membership of the Greens would need to approve any partnership and its not happening in my lifetime.
Oil and water just dont mix.
While the Greens achievements outside of Government may be limited, they are still in Parliament which is more than almost all of the small parties who hugged a big party.
Sorry david,
If the greens go with national they will be destroyed by 2020 election finally,
But I can see your logic.
But it is so risky for the Greens and our future, as we need to move to roll back all the 1200 rule changes the National Party have put in place to kill off our future, and hand us over to global corporates.
clean.
If Greens went with Nats then they would drop socialist support and pick up blue/green support like myself.
We don’t want blue-green support as it’s actually poisonous – as nine years of National have proved beyond doubt.
National are backed by banks who have a lot of money in the housing sector, by frackers destroying underground acquirers, by oildrilling killing dolphins, by big farmers taking whole rivers to grow milk. Nobody calling themselves Green would back National, Blue Green are already voting Green or Labour.
Probably best left to TOP.
DavidC. National has more in common with Labour than it does with the Greens, so why don’t you make preposterous suggestions of a Nat/Lab coalition ? That’s got more show of happening than a Nat/Greens combination!
Why aren’t the Greens banging on Bill’s door this morning, just because that’s what he deserves? Banging on his windows as well. And roof?
Because doing so would go against the core principles of the Greens.
If we go with Labour/NZ1st we’re going to get all three and quite a few more. And we’ll get the bonus of not having National trashing the economy.
Which would exclude going with National as they’re the most Bad.
Because they are ethical, I expect.
Prebble must be on someone’s payroll…he keeps banging on and on and on and on and on….ad bloody nauseum…
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11925915
“Mistakes in campaigns are fatal. There is no time to recover.
Bill English ran a mistake-free campaign. In modern politics no one else who has taken over as Prime Minister has gone on to win the next election. It is a remarkable achievement. All the other parties made mistakes.
When Jacinda became Labour leader Bill English could have launched an attack pointing out her youth and inexperience. Bill held his nerve. Labour’s policies were unchanged. He was sure before Election Day the stardust would wear off.”
If there is a L/NZF/G coalition – then expect the rage of the privileged to go stratospheric. It will be a very dangerous time.
I think Winston knows this too.
Yup. White man of privilege he is getting angry all over the world cos people are asking for him to share…
Hi BM.
AB, Better time now before the TPPA is law wherewe are then stymied by contols over government then we are stuffed totally, thats why natioal is opening up to any deal they appear to be offering, (except restoring regional rail)
Dangerous interesting times right now.
The swipe cards to the 9th floor already achieve this. Do you not think tobacco lobbyists and otgers dont pop in to drop veiled or overt threats about what they will do if certain legislation goes through?
Two huge lies being championed as successes. So much for ACT being the party of personal responsibility and Accountability. The only way Prebble gets this gig is that someone higher than editor wants him to have it. Otherwise the MP would have had a former member writing as many pieces for a few years. Think on that David ” why is RNZ horrid to me ” Seymour.
I can remember a copy of Prebble’s book turning up in our letterbox, can’t recall the exact title now it was “I’ve been drinking” or something like that.
It came as unsolicited mail and had some fine print stating that if I didn’t return it within x days I’d be required to pay for it.
Pretty much summed the guy up IMO.
Bill English did not run a mistake free campaign. He ran a dirty political campaign of smearing and fearing with a bunch of blatant lies along the way – and dirty back-room dealing with some dirty people. He played on his reputation as an honest, decent man which we now know was nothing more than a mythical meme probably dreamed up by C and T.
Although yet to be determined, he may go down in history as the man who lied his way back into a 4th term in government – something a good opposition should be reminding the punters of at every available opportunity for the next 3 years. They (the punters) might eventually see the error of their ways.
By mistake free Prebble means “successful by whatever means”. I know you know this. And that has always been Prebbles mantra. Even now he is writing to be paid by ACTs piper. Otherwise we woukd have had former MP writer doing opinion pieces during the election… but we didnt
Prebble has always been someone who bears deep grudges against his perceived foes for years afterward. A good case in point is Helen Clark who saw through him before anyone else did. Roger Douglas on the other hand does not seem to bear grudges against former enemies. Indeed he was reported to have said he was hoping for a Labour led government.
Probably recognises that the economy is about to crash and wants to be able to blame Labour rather than his preferred policies.
Now come on DTB. Don’t be so cynical. 😀
Maybe his old Dad has been in touch with him from the other side.
True Anne
The media is run by the Corporates and Steven Joyce is pumping out their propaganda full force today, and we expect this all the way to the seventh of October.
For those who struggle to understand the Green Party. Listen to Chloe Swarbrick. Leadership is NOT about age.
English through his deliberate lying was the antithesis of good leadership.
100% tracey.
Were I jacinda, I would just step back and let National and NZ First form a government. A red/green/black government with a 1 seat majority has all sorts of risks involved, and will only lead to a National landslide victory, with a new set of Maori Party quislings, led by Lance O’Sullivan in tow.
Labour’s focus should be to get that extra 10% and win in 2020. And the campaign should start today.
It will also give them time to get their tax working group together and actually publish a tax plan.
Like Key did in 2008 you mean? And his job summit to solve GFC unemplyment but turned out to be an excuse to further erode working conditions? EG over 50% of kiwifruit growers do not have employment contracts and pay less than minimum wage? Like that indiana?
Sheesh you are really smarting that Labour only got 36%, 2008 was so last decade.
Yep and National only got 46 (as of now, as 15% of the vote is still outstanding with the specials yet to be counted), and can not govern alone with all its coalition partners killed off in the last nine years.
MMP.
Repeat after me MMP.
Labour at 36 – 38 % can form a government with the Greens and NZF.
Labour and the Greens can also be a formidable opposition by simply needing to get 4 – 5 votes of NZF every time National gets to greedy, which could actually happen.
NZF could also decide to go with no one and simply supply their votes on legislation it likes irrespective of whom brings it to the floor.
So currently the lame duck is National, they campaigned on the 4th term. hahahahahahahahahahaha
The word of the day Schadenfreude. So much Schadenfreude.
Millsy. From what I’ve gleamed from history you grab power when you can, not “some time later when everyone will be nice to me”. If we can do a deal with Winston then we must proceed . That’s far preferable to three more years of these lying bastards.
Good points thanks Sabine
‘Schadenfreude’
Just listening to Angela Merkel’s fourth term prospects on RNZ, it occurred to me that her continued popularity, and bearing in mind our “Jacindamania” might it be named “Angela Momentum” after a similar scientific principle defined as “the quantity of rotation of a body, which is the product of its moment of inertia and its angular velocity.”
Humour is the last refuge of those who while feeling great disappointment after the last election, have a ray of hope still kept alive by a flickering sense of humour.
I have voted in seventeen elections, and only once voted for the winning candidate. I have experienced the government of my choice over those forty-eight years for only eighteen years of Labour.
No wonder hope and humour feature so.
A comment on facebook yesterday said that National had turned down a wealthy donor who wished to build a new Childrens hospital in Wellington. It may well be bizarre fanciful social media trolling, but has anyone heard anything along those lines from a reputable source?
Yes. It was reported by one of the media outlets 2-3 weeks ago. But then we heard no more about it.
Here….http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/national/334890/why-not-build-it-developer-explains-50m-children-s-hospital-gift
And you believe everything you read on Facebook?
Who is supposed to have said it and what evidence is there for the claim?
Interesting that in a few Nat and Labour supporters minds the minor parties make huge concessions and them none.could be worse you coukd not believe what someone tells you, vote for them, and expect them to stick to their promises
Would you like to reword this into something that makes some sense.
This is unintelligible.
Imbecile. You only have to mentally put the possessive apostrophe behind the final ‘s’ on ‘supporters’ and it makes sense, apart from a minor typo. I think you are deliberately lazy when it suits you, and, since you are here to troll, that is quite often. You realise that George Bernard Shaw refused to use the apostrophe at all? Have you ever read him, or would that be too hard?
…there’s a whole lotta shreddin’ goin’ on…
In other news, several gigabytes of data files connected to the National Party’s bank accounts and secret trusts have been erased in what their lawyers are calling “an unfortunate error of judgement on the part of a junior associate”.
I made that last bit up.
They call it “deleting texts and emails”
Collins
Key
English
OAB
Sly and funny.
There’s ekshully a terabyte of historical shit stored offshore – circa 2000 and before – and because of Y2K issues/ faux fear of a crash. Some of it shows EVEN THEN those committed to the neo-lib agenda. It comprises financial databases and Exchange Email shit such that even back then Gnatzi Ministerial whispers.
Of course when nothing happened at the turn of the millenium, the brilliant Masters of the Universe never thought to repatriate it all.
Graeme Edgeler’s excellent blog on specials was mentioned elsewhere (https://publicaddress.net/legalbeagle/election-2017-the-special-votes/) here, but a very interesting comment has appeared:
“There’s some fairly new science to it, Curia runs it for National, turns out you can just say certain things and get a fair chunk of people to change their opinion. You test a bunch of things to say, on people of one opinion, and count how many of them change that opinion, and for most things you can find a short phrase to tip people over on any subject.
Most of the population isn’t vulnerable to it, but enough are that if you figure out what to say and just keep saying it, there’s like a three-week window where you can shift a vote or whatever.
The Brexit thing was so many or other hundred billion pounds extra for the health system if you vote yes on Brexit, and it swung about 5% on that and they won. Completely unconnected with reality, but that’s not important. The MSM largely tried to not push it, they had to run cars with loudspeakers and stuff, but it still works.
For the Nats here it was, in a few different ways of saying it, that Labour was either under-selling how much tax they’d put on or over-selling how much they’d deliver with government spending, that the two didn’t match up, it couldn’t really be that easy, and they jumped a good 5% on that.
It works, and it will always work forever now that people know how to do it reliably. Trump in the US hammered on the Clinton emails, because that dropped Clinton a couple %, and that was enough.
The only thing you can do against it is find something to say to change them back. Not the truth, not policy, none of that shit matters for people who are persuadable by short phrases unconnected with reality. Research your own magic words and just repeat them ad nauseam, and make sure the delivery doesn’t put off your more stable voters.”
Sounds disturbingly accurate, and partially explains the massive late shift back to National.
Spreading lies worked very well for National, mostly about tax. I have heard so many stories now of ordinary working people who were convinced that Labour was going to increase their income tax dramatically – these were people who were only just making ends meet as it was. They picked it up from Facebook and other social media sources, and it is really hard to combat these messages in the time available.
I heard that Joyce had some GOP strategists who had worked on the Trump campaign working with him on the campaign. The only name I have is Clark Hennessey, a NZer who spent time working in USA with Republicans. Looks to me like the Nats used some of the same kind of tactics used to get Trump elected.
So you spread your own convincing truths on facebook and twitter first.
There’s been some convos on twitter along those lines too – anecdotes about people who thought their wages were going to be taxed more.
One was of people with disabilities who were talking on social media about how Labour were going to tax benefits more so they voted National. I don’t know how they got to that, but this is a big issue for the left. The MSM side of it, but also clarity. One thing that would have helped there is if Labour had had overt pro-beneficiary policy that wasn’t just about family/worker stuff. That people missed that the Greens had a policy to increase core benefits is a problem too.
“One thing that would have helped there is if Labour had had overt pro-beneficiary policy that wasn’t just about family/worker stuff. That people missed that the Greens had a policy to increase core benefits is a problem too.”I
These two sentences contradict each other. The problem is not the policies because the vast majority of the population do not bother with reading policies. Their decision on what party to vote for seems to rely on some vague impression of what the parties stand for and whether they like the candidates they know something about.
As someone who has been interested in politics since my early teens I find this extraordinarily depressing, but, unfortunately, it is the way it is and it is getting worse.
weka
Iy could be that people with worries are invited to f/b or twitter an official site about them and they could be explained or put to rest and that would be available to all so the answer could apply to many questions. People are used to there being fishhooks to everything. Having your benefit held for two weeks because of a change of employment or something like that, teaches you to be very careful about any changes.
That shouldn’t surprise anybody. Political parties of like mind around the world tend to work together. That’s not the problem.
The problem is the telling of lies and that needs to stop and to have consequences for those who still do it. An MP or budding MP who lies for political gain needs to go to jail for it.
“The problem is the telling of lies and that needs to stop and to have consequences for those who still do it.”
This is something I have been thinking we need – some kind of judicial body that could impose a financial penalty/retraction requirement on the spreading of false information. It would need to be able to work very quickly, operate on all media and be independent of the government of the day. The problem with organisations like the BSA is they have been stacked with Nats and their mandate is too limited.
Craig H
Had a look at legal beagle on public address and a comment under Graeme E’s is interesting;
simon g, A day ago
Thanks for doing this, Graeme.
A point overlooked by many of the talking heads is that numbers can and do change during a term. Parties break up (NZ First, Alliance in the first two MMP terms), parties are formed when MPs break away (the Maori Party, Mana), individuals leave parties to become independent (pushed, or jumping), by-elections, etc.
This is relevant now because a putative Lab-NZF-Green deal would require Winston to keep all his caucus on board, and given past behaviour, there’s a non-zero chance that some hitherto unknown NZF MP will be seduced across the floor by a bauble or quit the party on “principle”. Not tomorrow, but next year, who knows?
And if there’s a NZF-Nat deal, the anti-Nat numbers need to increase to stop any maverick from becoming Alamein Kopu when NZF quit the coalition over the [Insert Name Later] scandal of 2018. (I know she was Alliance, but the point stands – the party-hopping prevention law died years ago).
AK now that’s a name to remember. The story went that J Shipley called her every morning after breakfast to check if she was well.
“there’s a non-zero chance that some hitherto unknown NZF MP will be seduced across the floor by a bauble or quit the party on “principle”. ”
Can you tell me any party where this could not happen?
I won’t bother with the 1995-1996 period when all the parties seemed to disintegrate into little groups but off hand I can remember.
Jim Anderton left Labour.
Tariana Turia left Labour.
Hone Harawira left the Maori Party.
Don Brash left National
Kennedy Graham left the Greens
David Clendon left the Greens
Chris Carter left Labour.
Winston Peters left National
Alamein Kopu left the Alliance.
These are all ones who left after a row. I’m not counting those who simply resigned or retired quietly.
The split in New Zealand First in 1998 was merely the biggest of the splits with a large number of the party MPs going to Mauri Pacific.
Almost every party with more that one member seems to have had a split. Why pick on New Zealand First? They seem fairly stable these days.
I had to explain to people that CGT will not be 100% of all profit made on a house sale – no doubt there are thousands of others who think the same, and voted accordingly.
How come this revelation didn’t come out before the election? Did Labour and the Greens know about it? Because if they did they could have turned it around to their own advantage. It’s called playing the bastards at their own game.
Focus Groups.
Business have been running them for years. Not surprising that political parties, especially ones tied to business, will do as well.
So Labour should have repeated ad nauseam ” Why has National got a Chinese Government spy in their caucus ?” , it’s a gimme because it isn’t even a lie, and National would have to defend it. For fucks sake, Liang even said he would have to go back and correct his citizenship application. Nobody else gets to do that, your feet don’t even touch the ground before you’re bundled into the plane and told to fuck off.
You got it Craig Have to stop that crafty shit we ban all social media adverts a month before election and Draco T idea to ban polls a month before election I think it’s the video that change people perspective on one’s reality .I was not a happy person when I found out I missed Joe’s fight my son fucked up the time with daylight savings and all good fight Joe you won that easy as Big Upps .
Big Upps to all the American Sport’s Stars for not putting up with that __________________________________bullshit
If you have read my some of my older post u no what I’m saying Kia Kaha
willKnow what I have said .
Hooton did not deny (on Radio NZ) that it was Steven Joyce who leaked Winston Peters’ national superannuation details. That could be awkward for any coalition negotiations.
The media need to ask David Clendon or Kennedy Graham if they think the Greens should go into coalition with National.
these would be the guys who are not Members of the Green Party anymore? Maybe they can join the National Party and open the blue / green branch? They could call themselves aquamarine.
Poor National Party, it must be so unpleasant to have run out of natural born coalition partners and now here they are hat in hand having to be nice to Winston Peters. Poor things. Poor poor things.
So does Labour.
Binding referendum on Maori seats anyone
How about no water tax on farmers
Greens told to shut up and go sit in the corner
Having to deal with Shane Jones in cabinet.
Or the Greens could take one for the team and go with National.
Get a few policy wins, rebuild as a true environmental party and win it without Peters in 2020.
nope, as stated elsewhere, Labour can sit back and say nope we are happy in opposition – we have big enough numbers to make Nationals life hell for the next three years and watch these guys implode under their lies and deceits. Pike Mine comes to mind, just to name one.
Labour and the Greens have to do nothing. National wants it, then they NEED Winston. Without Winson National is a lame duck and you have a hung parliament which then needs to actually bargain and work to get the votes they need to pass their agenda. And then they have to work across the ailes, which considering that they have spend the last 9 years vilifying everyone who is not National could be ‘interesting’ in the best case or a right bitch in the worst.
The biggest looser today is National. Could not happen to nicer people. Crow and all that, you might want to add a bit o salt to that. I hear it makes it more palatable.
Schadenfreude. 🙂
Greens won’t get over 5% in 2020 if they sit back and do nothing.
Currently, all they’re looking like is the hard left rump of a more environmentally focused Labour party there’s no reason at all to vote greens now, they’re going the same way as Act.
See, the difference is some of us vote with MMP in mind, and National does not. IF it would, there would still be coalition partners on their side of the spectrum. But not only did they loose the conservatives, the Maori Party, they also lost votes themselves. But hey, i am sure the 0.5% Act Hologram will do them much good. So much to their awesome record of the last 9 years. They lost votes.
The game in town is MMP, which means you have to be at the very least civil to people as you might end up needing them.
Have you actually thought about the scenario where Winston says fuck it, we go with no one and you actually have to work to get our votes in individual pieces of legislation? Cause you know what, he could. He could stay independent and side with National and Labour and the Greens when ever he wanted to.
Nine years of lying, cheating, bullying, and being simply miserable petty, greedy, rude, inconsiderate and vile human beings that don’t give a damn for anyone not them is what got the National Party to where they are today. Might want to think about that.
What you fail to understand is that the greens and labour are not and will never be interchangable. The complement each other, not replace each other.
The Greens weathered the worst you guys could throw at them, and still remain strong – dropped 1% from last election.
ACT are receiving their just payments for being loyal tory todies for fifteen years.
1%? I don’t know what you’re looking at
Greens 11% in 2014 which if I remember correctly they were disappointed with
http://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/
2017 the got 5.9%, their vote was almost cut in half.
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/
lets wait until the last 15% of the votes are counted. Yes?
the fat lady ain’t singing yet.
and besides, what do you say about the drop in votes for National? the complete annihilation of the Maori Party. What about the Conservatives?
Nothing to say? but yeah, your concern for the well being of the Green Party is noted, and hey, you could vote for them next time if you think they are needed in parliament. You know, to foster the aquamarine vote.
Maori party result was bizarre and demonstrated the Maori have no idea how MMP works.
THe Maori party could have been Kingmakers and achieved so much for Maori.
Now it’s likely Peters will push for a binding referendum on Maori seats and that will be it for Maori representation.
A head-scratching result.
Oh yeah, could have nothing to do with Nationals mishandling of the housing crisis, nor anything to do with the mishandling of Winz, with not addressing unemployment and so on and so on.
What about the Conservatives? They also don’t understand MMP? what about the glorious Party called ACT? They also don’t understand MMP? What about the fact that National itself has lost voters? They also don’t understand MMP?
Oh dear oh dear oh dear.
It must be hard to be a National supporter today, you can’t fault your own so it must be all the others that screwed up and now you have to be nice to Winston Peters.
be an optimist: MP had spent 9 years “achieving so much” that everyone thought their job was done /sarc
They maybe noticed it was the Some Maori Party.
gah fuck you’re right, was looking at nz1 instead of greens on wikipedia page. Multifuckingtasking my arse.
they still only lost 5% while labour gained 10%, though.
They lost 46% of their vote.
Who cares, the Greens still are in Parliament and the Maori Party is not, and neither are the conservatives and the 0.5% of the ACT Hologram well….lets not go further down that road, shall we?
mate, your party did not win. Well lets say National ‘won smallishly’ and now they have to drink the poison chalice and be nice to Winston.
So?
You guys spat the fucking dummy at them, and they’re still around. The lowest they even polled was something like 4.9%.
Now you want them to give confidence and supply to a party that’s spent nine years actively corrupting every single Green party platform? Good luck with that.
Hundred thousand votes lost to another left party who were copying their policy.
Yeah……nah your wishful thinking does not make it so
“Greens won’t get over 5% in 2020 if they sit back and do nothing.”
Lolz, when have the Greens ever sat back and done nothing?
+1
Ha you are really funny Sabine!
You better run off to Jacinda and stop her from trying to court Winston then.
That nice Green leader most certainly did not receive your advice Sabine…I hear he even sent a nice box of organic chocolates to Winston 🙂
nah mate, i don’t have an issue with Winston. that is the whole point.
National has an issue, i don’t. That nice lady from the Labour Party does as she wishes, that nice bloke from the green Party shall do the same, and ditto for Winston Peters. Personally i think a coalition covering the votes of 54% + of the population is a nice representation of the public. But then, don’t ask me i did not vote for National 🙂
Bill English however has run out of options. Poor thing.
Why?
Because they’re probably more representative of that core green environmental part of the party.
I ‘m wondering if the poverty faction of the Greens isn’t drowning out other viewpoints.
ahhh showing your true blue colors here
The Poverty faction. You know, if the only reason you can be comfortable is by keeping others in poverty often abject poverty then how long do you think that is going to go well?
So no the poverty faction is the environmental faction is the business faction as as everything on this planet we are linked, our well being is linked, we are linked to the environment and the businesses that care to survive are linked to us and to the environment.
So you might again want to think about why you would like to see the Greens go with National, and when you do that and you be honest with yourself you will understand that the Greens have absolute no reason to believe one single word uttered by the likes of English, Bennett, Collins, Smith, Bridges, Joyce and all the other fetchers of big business.
Mind you could also google Puerto Rico today and see what happens when you ignore the environment, the people and put only importance on some businesses making money.
He aha te mea nui o te ao
What is the most important thing in the world?
He tangata, he tangata, he tangata
It is the people, it is the people, it is the people
Maori proverb
Just give up BM. We don’t want a bar of your Party’s attitude and behaviour. We will never go into coalition with the pack of lying bastards aka the National Party.
You successfully spewed your hatred and ignorance over Metiria and drove the uncommitted Green away. Know that the base Green supporter despises National, and for very good reason.
If you want a nonsensical Blue/Green party then go and form one,
You speak for the whole of the Green party do you, no one else gets a say?
Read the Charter BM. Dont take our word for it. Read. The. Charter. That is what the Greens stand for. It is in writing. It doesnt need your or mine or the former Green Party men you suddenly listen to or care about, opinions. Just read.
Again, BM, as Tracey said, you could have voted for the greens if you think the environment is so important.
You could also lobby your Party to be more environmentally aware.
but you fail to answer why the Greens should be the rubberstamper of the National Party. Cause one thing is for sure, they ain’t gonna be stopping the pollution of our waterways, the ain’t gonna be stopping their attempts to undermine DoC land with drill baby drill permits and the likes, they ain’t gonna invest in public transport, they ain’t gonna get the railways going etc etc etc.
The reason you want National to go with the Greens is that you know it would make for a stable coalition as by their nature the Greens are actually a Party that has values and you can count on them.
Something that you fear will not be the case with NZFirst. And looking at the comments form both sides of the spectrum in regards to the wild card Winston i can see your pain, but care little about it.
Why?
Because your party rode roughshod over everyone for 9 years and has no one else to blame but themselves. Dear Zip it Sweety Bennett, the Double Dipper from Dipton, 10 Bridges in Northland, Powerstation make for good housing Nick Smith, Dildo Baggins Joyce, Oravida Collins, cheap Breakfast Kaye, Maggy – hates Doc – Barry and all the other have only to blame themselves. And now they have to be nice to Winston Peters.
hahahahahahahahahahahah
i suggest that you find yourself a really nice chocolate cake and big spoon. Trust me it helps with the blues.
It is ironic that some who voted for the party that baldly lied to them during the campaign are now uneasy trusting NZF. The irony.
Schadenfreude, today the word is Schadenfreude.
Having to bend oneself in the shape of a Bretzel to still fit into your worldview when that has just been rendered moot. boy oh boy oh boy.
garibaldi you have your answer on the core base for the Green’s (as they stand), somewhere between 5% to 6%.
The other 5% to 6% (before Metiria imploded her own party) were the enviromental vote that could go back to a true enviromental focused party (that would work with either centre left or centre right Governements).
Chuck – the Greens are already a true, environmental-focussed party. Much of that other 5%-6% environmental vote went to Labour, not National. National is the last party that could be called environmentally-benign. Labour also was preaching environmental progress in its policies.
Your wishful dream of Greens working with your so-called Centre-Right Government is a complete pipe-dream. Your Centre-Right Government is the enemy of the environment, and will lose the war even if you think it can win a few battles. Get real.
Election finished, so we got back
chucky the nutty.
who next
Puckish Rouge the racist toad.
Pockish, please…
Based on what? Stop buying the Russell Norman spin BM. Russell thinks Green Party should be environmental only, hence he works for Greenpeace now. The Green Party has always had people and environment on equal footing. National has money far above peopke and the environment.
If you wanted Green influence in Government you shoukd have party voted Green. Did you? Nope you FPPed it
Federated Farmers concerned they may have lost their swipe card to the ninth floor,
“Federated Farmers president Katie Milne said there was now a feeling of unease in the rural sector.
“There are still some who are genuinely worried – well, quite a lot actually – and there are some who have already indicated that they’ve really battened down their hatches until they know a result.”
http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/country/340179/farmers-batten-down-their-hatches-post-election
They should visit some homeless, some disabled, some solo parents some two parent families living off 2 minimum wage jobs…but they wont. For some the bubble of matrydom allows no travelling.
well we all must be doing well, 500 grms of butter is selling at 6$ today and surely only an economy in which everyone is doing good can this be afforded, or something.
LOLOLOL
Fuck me – they protest about Labour policies, protest when they have to wait a few days for a new government to form, they worry about nothing more than their feelings. The Feds Farmers need to drink that cold cup of cement and harden up.
Spring is here, growing conditions are great, log and lamb and milk payouts are fantastic, the long term global economy (esp Australia and China and India) for all of them is up, they get all the cheap labour they want, spare me days they can’t do anything except complain.
Really long Fonterra ad at 6:15pm during TV one news. They must be worried….
Someone should be knocking on Bill’s door alright – but not with an offer to form a government. The Greens are just too nice to do that, and Labour is afraid of the precedent. But neo-liberal sons-of-bitches must pay.
Guess we missed it! – World Rivers Day.
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1709/S00422/world-rivers-day-heralds-boost-for-water-quality-data.htm
“Water quality is of high importance to many across New Zealand and became a key election issue. It is clear New Zealanders want to see a lift in the quality of our fresh water resources.
“Having easy access to reliable information will create a greater understanding on the state of our waterways, help people make good choices about how they use them and help support the changes that they want to see for their lakes and rivers,”
https://www.lawa.org.nz/explore-data/swimming
N B Many of the waterways, and/or lakes are either showing caution or are data deficient!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/97105519/canterbury-struggling-with-water-quality-targets-good-progress-on-irrigation
Why is Chris Trotter running his yap to the NZ Herald? Front of the page “Arden knows she lost” someone needs to send him to the glue factory the stupid Donkey.
And Bryan Edwards sides with National and is anti-Labour. He is aged now along with Trotter and memory loss of their younger ideals has turned them Right. (I am older than both of them and I am getter more Lefter.)
“Bryan”?
That’s because he’s good mates with bloody Michelle Boag!
The guy has lost the plot in his dotage.
in the meantime Puerto Rico
3.5 million people without water, electricity, means of communication and a damn that is failing. No ships can enter unless they are US American with a US American crew thanks to the Jones Act, Trump tweeting about firing football players and otherwise playing the fiddle.
and yes, Puerto Rico’ans are US Americans.
shades of the future to come?
“Fonterra CEO’s massive $8.32 million makes him highest-paid executive”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11926222
https://twitter.com/MichaelFieldNZ/status/912106185502875649
Obscene.
Ridiculous that you get more because there is more money being hefted under your leadership. Same job, same number of hours, so bigger money just follows efficient and effective leadership. Give him $1m as a bonus on top of his normal $2 million!! salary and package. That’s enough. No one knows what enough is in this leadership. When you are making product, its cheaper per item usually – volume brings the cost down. When you are making lots more money, then a bonus is in order. Just a bonus, not the biggest bit of the bestest we’ve got.
Something to think about.
Just say National sided with NZ First and part of the deal was getting rid of the Maori seats.
In that situation, would people on the left prefer for the Greens to go into coalition with National and retain the Maori seats or doesn’t that really matter in the overall scheme of things?
The greens providing checks and balance to National or NZ First providing checks and balance what’s better for the left?
lol
keep trying, dude.
National would probably quite like to get rid of the Maori seats. They’d turn the greens down.
Maybe they need to get in first?
It’s all getting a bit creepy now mate lol ☺
oi
bwhahahahahahahaha
Marty Mars you put it perfectly ! This IS getting bloody creepy. Like just for amusement in a chatty sort of way BM’s going off on some out-there-crazy political eugenics number. I was wondering quite what my response could be then I saw yours……
Wayne Eagleson, the Chief of Staff to John Key and Bill English, is off:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11926323
The closest equivalent the left have ever had is Heather Simpson, who steered the Helen Clark office throughout her three terms. Eagleson had more guile , less policy capacity, and was up to his neck in the darker arts of Dirty Politics.
12 years is well and truly long enough in one job, and I would presume he could take his pick of top-flight lobbying positions in Australasia.
I would wish some weapons-grade hard ass for Jacinda Ardern’s office – although with more policy heft and less sunny optimism . Key’s 8.5-year polling honeymoon was in no small part due to outstanding staff leadership, and that is what they all need if they are going to make hard choices that get their leaders where they need to be for three terms in a row.
Some are saying this is Peter’s first blood – ie Eagleson was the legendary leaker of Peters’ super problems – or is taking the fall for the leaker.
He’s leaving at peak.
either there’s a weak 4th term government, or National is out.
“……..a hard ass for Jacinda Ardern’s office”. I know…….there’s a Nooo Yocker guy name of Scaramucci…….
This might solve climate change for the time if these volcanoes go pop!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/97233433/new-zealand-defence-force-set-to-survey-erupting-vanuatu-volcano
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-25/why-do-vulcanologists-think-mt-angung-will-erupt-soon/8985862 The Bali one is a interesting one, as the last it went pop the worlds climate drop a degree for a couple yrs.
Last but not least is one and this a whooper of volcano, aka a super volcano
http://www.news.com.au/technology/science/supervolcano-becoming-more-dangerous/news-story/11455813ad987c9a696bc487b47276ac