I am a keen fan of reviewing campaigns to work out what worked. That way next time you know what to do to ensure that the country has progressive leadership.
Labour’s overall gain in the election was significant, up 10.7% points. But which parts of the country surged and which parts did not do so well?
As part of my post election catharsis I prepared a spreadsheet giving a rough and ready indicator of areas where the increase was most significant and other areas where it was not so good. It is surprisingly clear what happened in the country.
The measure is a crude one. It is the change in Labour’s proportion of the party vote from 2014 to 2017. It is crude in that it contrasts proportions and takes no account of turnover. And the figures are preliminary with a number of special votes to be counted. In fact I would not be surprised if Labour and the Greens both gain a further seat.
I then tallied the figures across geographical regions. I treated the Maori electorates separately as clearly something happened there.
Basically the figures suggest the increase in the vote in South and West Auckland was disturbingly small, Wellington was good, Christchurch really good, provincial areas were good especially in the South Island, the University electorates all showed significant improvement in party votes and the Maori electorates performed out of their skin.
Here is the table:
|Central North Island||10.50%|
|South Island rural||12.30%|
A few comments:
As for reasons for Auckland’s relatively poor performance I suspect that elevated real estate prices has made too many of us closet tories. But organisationally it needs more dedicated resource. If Labour wants to win in 2020 then it needs to make sure that Auckland is organised and ready to go.