Sage advice on the polls

Written By: - Date published: 10:30 am, April 29th, 2011 - 35 comments
Categories: election 2011, polls - Tags:

The latest Roy Morgan poll is out.

Support for government parties is up 1% to 56%:
National Party 51% (unchanged),
Maori Party 3.5% (up 2%),
ACT NZ 1% (down 1%)
United Future 0.5% (unchanged),

Support for Opposition Parties is down 1% to 44%:
Labour Party 32% (up 0.5%)
Greens 8%, (unchanged),
New Zealand First 3% (down 2%),
Progressive Party 0.5% (up 0.5%),
Others 0.5% (unchanged).

The sample size is 991, with 6% (down 1%) don’t know. On Government Confidence: 53.5% (down 1%) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’, 32.5% (up 3%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Given the consistency of the Roy Morgan polling it’s pretty clear that the TV3 poll that had Labour on 27% (and that got some of the more vacuous righties so over stimulated) was a rogue.

And with respect to polls in general, here’s some sage advice from an unexpected source — see if you can work out who said it before you click the link:

He did not put much stock into poll results that show that Mr Hide’s grip on the Epsom seat is in jeopardy. “I wouldn’t want to read too much into that. I’ve seen that polling in the paper a month or so ago. It’s a wee way out til [the general election on] November 26.”

Indeed.

35 comments on “Sage advice on the polls ”

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  1. calltoaccount 1
    29 April 2011 at 10:50 am

    Yep, guessed correctly. The “wee way out” waffle is the give away I reckon.

  2. tsmithfield 2
    29 April 2011 at 11:03 am

    This poll shows support increasing for the government and decreasing for the opposition. So how, exactly is this good news for the opposition? Especially considering that the key support partner for Labour, NZ First, has lost 40% since last poll and is now well below the 5% threshold. Support for the MP has also increased considerably suggesting that ditching HH has been good for support.

    • r0b 2.1
      29 April 2011 at 11:20 am

      The changes since the last Roy Morgan are margin of error – pay them no mind. The good news is that the TV3 poll now looks seriously rogue.

      I don’t see NZF as a key support partner, I’d rather they didn’t make it back. Let’s see some new polling once the Mana party and new ACT party bed in with the public. And let’s not forget that in 2002, after Labour’s first term, the gap between Labour and Nat closed by about 10% in the months before the election.

      • Herodotus 2.1.1
        29 April 2011 at 12:08 pm

        Support for the Mana party? Who is going to add to the ego of a certain MP who display Narcissistic tendencies and
        The reported front man is the answer I would hate to hear what the question was. Perhaps this what party/MP can do more in regressing NZ to 3rd world status?
        Ps this is crap savings from the govt. But on a good note there are good corpoarte morals out there … Re the Mad Butcher helping a poor old woman left in the crap
        And why is there limited commetary on this?
        http://www.nzherald.co.nz/act-party/news/article.cfm?o_id=359&objectid=10722200

        • PeteG 2.1.1.1
          29 April 2011 at 12:31 pm

          Support for the Mana party?

          The Maori get low party % so I think Mana will probbaly be similar- electorate votes could be competitive while the party vote may be irrelevant.

    • gobsmacked 2.2
      29 April 2011 at 11:21 am

      Good news because it suggests the TV3 poll was false, since it is out of line with all others.

      The right-wing spin of Labour being in freefall is just wishful thinking. Labour are static, which is not good enough, but Don Brash is kindly doing his best to change that.

      • tsmithfield 2.2.1
        29 April 2011 at 11:33 am

        r0b: “The changes since the last Roy Morgan are margin of error – pay them no mind. The good news is that the TV3 poll now looks seriously rogue.”

        Well the difference for Labour between the TV3 poll (27%) and the Roy Morgan Poll (32%) is only 5%. Thats probably within the margin of error territory as well. So why not split the difference? That would give Labour 29.5% support. I could agree with that.

        • r0b 2.2.1.1
          29 April 2011 at 11:54 am

          Sure TS, whatever makes you happy.

          • tsmithfield 2.2.1.1.1
            29 April 2011 at 12:17 pm

            You seem to be the one who experiences unbridled joy because one poll is marginally less catastrophic than another. Still, what ever turns you lights on, I guess.

            • wtl 2.2.1.1.1.1
              29 April 2011 at 12:50 pm

              With all this nitpicking you seem to be missing the point of the post. Hint: it’s in the title

  3. gobsmacked 3
    29 April 2011 at 11:16 am

    One problem is that the TV polls are irregular, but get the most coverage. The Morgan poll is regular, but is largely ignored by the media.

    It is amusingly possible that ACT could get an unrecorded boost from this week’s coup, i.e. go up a few points, and then go back down again by the time the next TV One poll comes out (May, post- budget?).

    Of course, the next TV3 poll will be compared with the last one, even if they are months apart. So Dunce Garner could be shouting “Ooh! Labour up 5%!” as if it was a major move, rather than a return to reality after a rogue snapshot.

    • Pascal's bookie 3.1
      29 April 2011 at 11:45 am

      The narratavium on the next TV3 poll is setting up interestingly.

      Unless they’ve got a rassmussin type problem, the rougue factor should correct, swinging a few points Nat -> Lab.

      Add that effect to a few points Nat -> ACT and what’s that narrative re the burger king putsch?

      Garner’s horse race story writes itself.

  4. higherstandard 4
    29 April 2011 at 11:27 am

    Here’s some sage advice on the polls.

    They are fucking shit, ignore them.

    • Name (required) 4.1
      29 April 2011 at 8:18 pm

      Of course they’re shit, but because they exist they can’t be ignored.

      MMP invites tactical voting, but tactical voting is only possible if tactical choices are possible and tactical choices are only made possible by polls. If polls show the Nats riding high some Nat voters will consider giving their party vote (the only one that matters for most people) to ACT in the hope they will give Nat some backbone. If the polls show a close run thing with Labour the right will vote Nat in the hope it will keep Labour out. Ditto (currently) Labour and the Greens.

      Political polls are what goat’s entrails were to the Romans – shit that shaped the world.

      I would like to see them banned altogether, or for at least a month prior to any general or local election so that people can exercise democracy uninfluenced by anything but what they personally think. However as shit is meat and drink to most politicians I dare say we’re stuck with them.

  5. Rich 5
    29 April 2011 at 12:13 pm

    I’m predicting ACT will jump to 3-6% (mostly from National) on name recognition in the next set of polls. They’ll then drop back, to maybe around 2-4%, unless some sort of scandal can be found, in which case they’ll be back down to negligibility.

  6. randal 6
    29 April 2011 at 12:54 pm

    a rump tea party.
    useful idiots.

    where do they find them?
    its nearly time to say goodbye to them.

  7. Penny Bright 7
    29 April 2011 at 1:02 pm

    It is my considered opinion that it was the Botany by-election result (the ONLY poll that counts) that helped provoke this Don Bra$h DICKtatorship coup?

    Slightly desperate move?

    No wonder ‘shonky’ John Key is now trying to back-peddle and be seen to keep his distance from ‘The Don’?

    It’s all spin-doctored ‘perception’ deception…………..

    (yawn)…………

    Penny Bright
    http://waterpressure.wordpress.com

  8. burt 8
    29 April 2011 at 3:23 pm

    Labour are still too high considering they did such incredible damage to the economy last time they stole an election for another 3 years of tyranny.

    • r0b 8.1
      29 April 2011 at 3:38 pm

      The more the public gets to see of demented ACToids the better. A big hand for burt please folks – he’s out there driving voters to the left…

      • ianmac 8.1.1
        29 April 2011 at 4:02 pm

        Perhaps you could give burt a guest-Post platform Rob, where he could continue to outline the reasons to not vote NAct.

    • Bored 8.2
      29 April 2011 at 4:01 pm

      Burt, going on empirical evidence I can only conclude that you are:
      * misinformed.
      * reading selectively.
      * not reading at all.
      * have not be listening reading or otherwise in touch for the last 2 years
      * deliberately stupid
      * all of the above

    • the pink postman 8.3
      29 April 2011 at 4:17 pm

      Well if they did so much damage perhaps you will,explain why the Tories went all around the country telling us how mean Dr Cullen was by not spending all the money the Labour Government had . How did they afford the tax cuts to the rich if Labour had left the country in debt.
      Any way I thought the proposed selling of assets was going to be carried out because of the Christchurch earth quake, nothing to do with Labour Government ,

  9. Bored 9
    29 April 2011 at 3:53 pm

    A mere 6% needs to come off of the Right vote, thats 1 person in 20. My take is that the 2 things that need to happen are:
    * for Winston to get the greys to the polls,
    * for the Westie / Pacifica vote to happen.

    • burt 9.1
      29 April 2011 at 6:26 pm

      Hell you lovers of big corrupt self serving govt must be desperate when start relying on a proven liar to help you win an election.

    • Jum 9.2
      30 April 2011 at 1:00 pm

      Bored,

      Have respect for the olds, Bored.

      Greypower accepts members from 50 years I think. Not only does Greypower have an issue with our assets being privatised, as it says so on their mission statement, but they have grandchildren.

      Goff needs to ensure that the sums are out there on the huge debt our children’s children are going to be left with because of the selfish aggrandisement of this government and its greedy backers and supporters.

      He also needs to remind himself and other babyboomers that they gained from the sacrifices of their parents and keep that in mind when formulating their policies for a more humane government by the left. I have no doubt that Labour will do that whereas NActMU is a cut-throat society of knife them in the back before they do it to you type of people. How long I wonder before Kiwis become disillusioned with that sort of ‘living’.

      This NActMU government and, more importantly, its supporters are mostly of this age and will be held ultimately responsible for the Americanisation, accompanied by greedy and selfish excesses, forced upon this country, (as in the 80s) but they also know that their stockpiling of wealth from the sell off of SOEs will shelter them and theirs from the ensuing financial fallout because they will have the insider knowledge of when the country will fall over again and will protect their share monies.

      Brash and Key had/have the contacts world-wide, as they did with the last recession but they never suffered, did they. ‘Clever financial manager/moneytrader’ Mr Key didn’t bother to tell 90% of New Zealanders of the financial fallover tho’. Funny that…

      No wonder NAct were frothing at the mouth when Cullen was protecting New Zealand from money surpluses being spent on tax cuts in the first two terms. NAct needed people to be desperate and out of work. Instead, employers were having to pay decent wages to get people and there was a near zero unemployment level and zero government debt. Not at all the sort of New Zealand the NActs wanted in place to start their social and financial engineering. However, to the greedy and unethical Key, Hide and English a bit of financial tinkering along with their lying still made it possible to mislead the people of New Zealand that trusted their campaign words.

      I think that is what I find the most unforgiveable. That JKeyll can laugh at people’s suffering after they trusted him and his cronies.

      Goff needs to remind New Zealanders that in order to keep the NActMU philosophy of excessive riches for the ‘top’ 10% needs an ever-increasing level of poverty in the other 90% of people.

      • Colonial Viper 9.2.1
        30 April 2011 at 1:14 pm

        I believe its actually the top 5% of income and wealth holders who need to be heavily targetted, not the top 10%.

        To fall into the top 10% income earners in NZ you only need to make about $70K p.a. I know its a lot more money than others have, but families on that much are strictly only middle class still, watching bills like a hawk and trying to keep up with mortgage payments. In contrast, the top 5% income level kicks in around $90K p.a. That’s roughly $1100 per month more disposable income.

        At the same time, advantages need to be given to small businesses and entrepreneurs in ventures looking to employ more and more NZ’ers on good pay.

        In the US, wealth and income inequality is so incredible that they could solve the majority of their fiscal woes by targetting just the top 1% in their population.

        • Jum 9.2.1.1
          30 April 2011 at 1:17 pm

          Colonial Viper

          I take your point.

          I’d be happy if government just made it impossible for the ‘top’ 5% to avoid paying their tax.

          PS I don’t know why I keep referring to these tax avoiders as the ‘top’ when I really know they are the lowest of the low!

  10. the pink postman 10
    29 April 2011 at 4:20 pm

    As I have sad before ,get the disadvataged out to the polls. All of the Left to start attacking Act/Nat and not each other .

  11. Jum 11
    29 April 2011 at 7:46 pm

    Just saw Judith Collins on an old recording telling Pacifica that Don Brash was so honest, just after he had done the Orewa speech and that he believed in what he was saying – then Hollow Men comes out – it was a speech cooked up by spin doctor… to get some heat going.

    At the end of the programme, there is Anae, Nat. telling the group that it wasn’t planned, otherwise Brash would have done the speech a few months out from the election… circa 2007

    Lies, lies lies by this government and its old/new/old lying partners.

  12. Jum 12
    29 April 2011 at 9:27 pm

    And don’t you just love it. On One the commentator talked about Julia Gillard, Australia coming through the door along with John Key but they didn’t mention him and they didn’t mention New Zealand at all amongst the countries that are receiving televised showings. Love it.

    • U 4 United 12.1
      30 April 2011 at 9:31 am

      So what’s your point Jum? Who could be bored enough to follow the Royal Wedding when one can salivate over the continuing collapse of the left vote here?

  13. Jum 13
    30 April 2011 at 11:53 am

    U 4 United,

    You follow a royal wedding because you want to see your prime minister putting on a good show and find out what his wife is wearing and where they are sitting and you want to feel proud that your country is playing its part in the world, helping to bring about equality, equity, reducing poverty both here and abroad.

    Unfortunately, knowing what a cunning, lying, thieving moneytrader JKeyll is who treats New Zealand as his private business cutting labour costs and giving huge dividends to his backer shareholders – shareholders in asset stripping and destroying this country’s autonomy – all I could do this time was look at the hats. At least they were meant to be showoffy, not like the Business Rotundtable’s lackey/monkey in the green suit.

    This creature has brought this country into disrepute. He has made wealthy people wealthier and the rest of New Zealanders poorer or down a step into poverty. Douglas did half a job in the 1980s and now Key has invited him in to finish the job in this government, meanwhile flicking any damage on to everyone (Hide e.g.) but himself. JKeyll has no ethics and his followers are scum.

    Should I ask you not to take the last sentence personally? That’s never gonna happen.

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