So which is it Granny Herald?

27 comments on “So which is it Granny Herald? ”

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1. peteremcc 1

   5 February 2008 at 4:17 pm

   Note:

   1) **Bipartisan** Campaign Reform Act of 2002
   2) Intent != Effect
2. Steve Pierson 2

   5 February 2008 at 4:20 pm

   petermcc, most parties in the nz parliament voted for the EFA. Guess that makes it multi-partisan
3. Chemist Peter 3

   5 February 2008 at 6:38 pm

   nice poll result on TV3 tonight, 14 points on the poll Helen trusts the most.
4. SweetDisorder 4

   5 February 2008 at 6:46 pm

   I wonder how long before H1 looses her nerve and hits the melt down button. Must only be weeks away now.
5. Miss Brown 5

   5 February 2008 at 6:50 pm

   Not long now.The pills must be getting a real hammering.

   [lprent – junk warning – this is probably dad4justice under yet another alias. It is in his usual IP range and with the usual comment type.]
6. outofbed 6

   5 February 2008 at 6:56 pm

   Hey we are talking about a 3.5%, with all the great press Key has been having
   I think the lefts vote is holding up well
   Green labour 42% Nats 49% 3.5 % soft vote to change then its all on… When push comes to shove
   Its going to be close folks
7. AncientGeek 7

   5 February 2008 at 7:06 pm

   Especially as the EFA is non-issue to almost all voters.

   Its going to be close folks

   Thats what I’m picking – it will be a really close race. The polls for the nats have been interesting lately. While high, they have been jumping around quite a lot in the different polls. They have decimated most of the right vote for parties other than themselves. Similarly they seem to be chopping into the centre parties small votes when they go up. Looks pretty soft.

   Which is of course why the nats are busy swallowing dead rats to try and get centre-left vote. It is going to be quite interesting seeing what that does to their right vote, trying to be all things to all people.

   I’d be really interested in the number of people who were “did not say” or “undecided” (usually not reported). I suspect that it is pretty high at present.
8. SweetDisorder 8

   5 February 2008 at 7:17 pm

   AncientGreek

   its funny how the left are including all other parties other than the nats and act. There is no certainty on what way the maori party will go.

   Secondly, assuming the greens make it back, they will cost labour a heavy price for their support as , assumption, NZ First is not re elected. Is the value of govt for labour high enough to take the cost of an annoyed and angry green party. Also, what would the public take Jeanette, Russel and Sue as ministers? How long before the green dye rub off Russel/Sue and the hard core red exposed?
9. gobsmacked 9

   5 February 2008 at 7:28 pm

   Actually, what the poll said was: it’s summer, go away. There was no meaningful change from the end of last year, because 99% of New Zealand is not interested. Bored political journos and bloggers may need their poll fix, but the public have lives.

   Key and Clark could have made a pact last week to tear up their speeches and have another week’s break, and nobody would be any worse off.
10. outofbed 10

    5 February 2008 at 7:30 pm

    The Green/ Labour vote has been 45% it is now polling 42% Not a cause for great concern yet
    It does not matter how many Labour party voters vote Green as long as that 45% total remains intact
    This is why key is swallowing rats to try and grab that 3 or 4 % he needs I can’t see it happening.
11. Dan 11

    5 February 2008 at 8:04 pm

    How far out in front was Brash at this time in the election cycle? It was something similar as I remember. So far National has not put many policies forward, apart from boot camps and increased doctor’s fees. The “me too” philosophy of National is going to backfire. People will say “What do the Nats stand for apart from power at all costs?”
    They will decide on policies later, which is when the hollow men have their say!!
12. AncientGeek 12

    5 February 2008 at 8:05 pm

    SweetDisorder:

    its funny how the left are including all other parties other than the nats and act. There is no certainty on what way the maori party will go.

    I actually look at it much the same way as DPF does in his curia summaries, for much the same reasons.

    Labour/Green/Progressive = left
    National/Act = right
    NZF/UF ~= centre

    As you say the Maori party are a bit of a wild card, due to their inexperience (they’re learning political realities fast).

    But much as I hate to burst your bubble – you can get an idea of the leanings of their electorate by looking at the Party vote in the last election. These the top three party votes in the electorates where the Maori Party won the electorate vote.

    Tamaki MakaurauParty vote: NZLP: 10,951, MP: 5,457, NZF: 1,057
    Te Tai HauauruParty vote: NZLP: 9,619, MP: 5,739, NZF: 872
    Te Tai TokerauParty vote: NZLP: 9,788, MP: 6,151, NZF: 1,559
    WaiarikiParty vote: NZLP: 10,530, MP: 6,104, NZF: 1,324

    In all of these cases in the electorate vote, it was Maori Party candidate first, and the NZLP candidate second. No-one else was really in contention. In each case the electorate vote for the Maori Party candidate was similar in number to the party vote for labour.

    Given that voting record, with probably something similar coming in the election’08, it looks to me to be political suicide for the Moari Party to work too closely with National. At least if they want to be a party that their voter trust.

    Incidently it is a most classic case of strategic voting ever seen in NZ. The voters in the Maori seats clearly wanted to maximize the use of their vote. A lot of voters voted Maori Party for electorate, and labour party for party vote. Thereby probably causing an overhang under MMP.
13. outofbed 13

    5 February 2008 at 8:35 pm

    ‘A lot of voters voted Maori Party for electorate, and labour party for party vote. Thereby probably causing an overhang under MMP.”

    Which as you say only increases the chance of the MP working with Labour . The Maori voter seems to have a handle on MMP something I don’t think most of the Nat posters here do
14. Pascal's bookie 14

    5 February 2008 at 8:44 pm

    AG, I agree completely. The number of times I’ve read statements about how the Maori party are just as likely to go with team blue amazes me.

    As you imply, the Maori party is reliant on it’s voter base. As are the National Party.

    The questions I’d like to see answered by blue/brown boosters is this:

    What would the coalition agreement look like? What portfolios and policies would the MP demand in return for having to go around to all the Marae in the country and explain why they signed up with the Nat’s, (I’d like to be a fly on the wall with an ear for Te Reo at those little talks).

    I’d say at a minimum for portfolios; Maori Affairs, and associates of either education, welfare, justice or health. For policies I wouldn’t want to be explaining much less than; gaurantees on the Maori seats, real movement on F&S (I doubt they’ll accept a gamble in the courts at this stage), various iwi programmes in health education and welfare to get funding, and possibly some talks around marae based justice and sovereignty issues.

    Try selling that lot to the kiwiblog right and see what happens to Key’s poll ratings.
15. lprent 15

    5 February 2008 at 8:51 pm

    I’ve been collating dad4justice’s various accounts and IP addresses.

    His persistent trolling with little content is starting to annoy me (and by the looks of it – everyone else).

    So I’ve put a temporary moderation block on factors that identify him. This will remain in effect while I find or code a better solution, or he starts writing in a better style and with more sense.

    Unfortunately this will lead to some other comments going into moderation. I will clear them as fast as they get notified.

    I thank you for your patience over the next few days.

    Lynn
16. Chemist Peter 16

    5 February 2008 at 8:57 pm

    talking of IP addresses, are you still using Labour’s gift from heaven?

    [lprent – look it up. You have hands don’t you? I’ve been waiting for another “fishy” press release from Bill – PLEASE someone tell him]
17. AncientGeek 17

    5 February 2008 at 9:08 pm

    PB: If you look at the votes for any right-wing party in those electorates, I think that the answer becomes pretty clear.

    Personally I think that a lot of the Maori Party/National party talk originates in the Maori Party itself. Certainly it is what I would do if I wanted to increase my bargaining hand with the NZLP.

    Over time, and if the Maori Party manages not to alienate their voters, it is likely that they will increase their party vote. In which case they will get a stronger hand. But to do that, it is clear that they’d have to take votes from the NZLP. The NZF 3rd vote level is pretty small. Which is likely to change their supporter composition in the direction of labour.

    But for the next few elections I’d say that the MP is on probation in the Maori electorates and voters. As a strategy, I don’t think that they will want to squander their goodwill amongst Maori voters like NZF did after the 1996-1999 election.

    I’d add that on the election’05 figures, and probably more so in the election’08, that Maori may have finally managed to hit takeoff. Probably with or without the Maori seats. They form a distinct community of interest which is clear in the social stats.
18. RANDAL 18

    5 February 2008 at 9:32 pm

    looks like granny is a whore and takes it both ways
19. deemac 19

    5 February 2008 at 10:37 pm

    the trolling has reached new lows – presumably a sign of either desperation or mental illness.
    Unless someone has an real comment to make – preferably on the post they link it to – why should anyone else have to read it?
20. Dean 20

    5 February 2008 at 11:55 pm

    To be fair, Lynn, noone ever answered who in the Labour party gave you those resources to use. Perhaps it might be a good idea to disclose that in the interest of transparency?

    And who was paying for the traffic bill? Yes, I’m sure it wasn’t megabucks, but still… who?

    [lprent – caught in d4j moderation trap, so I’ll comment while I have it on editing.

    I’ve answered this before. Pity no one on the right ever bothers to listen. More busy trying to score points than using their eyes, ears or brains. Oh well – it has been GREAT publicity.

    It is pretty simple – I borrowed some resources from a tech to cover problems with our server falling over. Turns out that some of the resources that I used were a donation to the NZLP, now running a set of left websites. Techs do this all of the time for one reason or another, and are particularly sympathetic for non-commercial sites. Have no idea how many times I’ve done it myself.

    When I found that there was a possible conflict of independence, I shifted to a backup server, and then setup a new primary server. Took an hour for the first, and 3 hours for the second because of LAMP (and I’m still fiddling).

    Why should I be transparent about running a non-commercial blog for a number of bloggers? I fail to see ANY rationale about why I should do this – not in the law, not in anything. Apart from anything else, virtually all tech favours are done on a QT basis – why should I give the idiots IMHO around kiwiblog and whale’s site another person to pull in front of their interesting version of vigilante justice. They’re welcome to talk to me instead.

    Incidently: currently this site is running on 2 servers (primary and backup) with a replicated database and two static IP’s. One system is running LAMP and the other is running WIMP. It has been a useful learning exercise.

    It is completely paid for by me. Total cost is about $70 per month above and the cost of a domain name annually above my development systems – the most The Standard has ever cost. Now compare that with the costs that blowhard IMHO WhaleOil was postulating of $11k per year. Beats me IMHO why anyone would listen to such an illiterate tosser.

    Hope that answers your query and Bill English’s !

    Now you aren’t d4j are you? Your comments are usually of a higher standard than his.

    ]
21. Dean 21

    6 February 2008 at 12:46 am

    “Techs do this all of the time for one reason of another”

    As a tech, I can assure you that they don’t. In your circle perhaps they do, but in most people’s it’s seen as too likely to cause conflicts of interest. Which leads us on to:

    [lprent – yeah well there are techs and then there are techs…….. some are trusted, others aren’t. Especially when we’re talking about non-commercial situations]

    “When I found that there was a possible conflict of independence, I shifted to a backup server, and then setup a new primary server.”

    No, you didn’t shift it when you found there was a possible conflict. You waited until you were caught out. Or was it just complete coincidence? Sorry Lynn but that’s just complete rubbish or so conindental you should write to Ripleys with it.

    [lprent – Dean – tell me – how often do you do a reverse lookup on an IP block to see ownership? I didn’t realise there was an issue until PaulM pointed it out (that was a good bit of work by him – he is definitely literate)]

    “Beats me why anyone would listen to such an illiterate tosser.”

    Whaleoil is not exactly known for his hard, cold facts though is he.

    [lprent – Yes correct – never noticed a strong interest in facts by him myself.
    First time I ever noticed him was when he wanted to sue my previous employer because he didn’t bother to check a date on a website, and wanted to sue someone for being an unused secondary DNS. Really a great advertisement for being interested in ‘hard, cold facts’. Basically I think he is a blusterer who doesn’t check his facts.]
22. RANDAL 22

    6 February 2008 at 2:19 am

    why do you want to know this info dean. I would say its none of your business being as you are for free enterprise and freedom of expression an all that. if you aint here to discuss the issues then push off.if the limit of your argument is to call someone an illiterate tosser then you are just a name calling boobie. byeeeeeeeee

    [lprent – ah – actually that was me. But I was describing my opinion of Whale and his inflated costings about the running costs of this site. I feel it was a justified description. The moderators might not – so repeating it, is probably not a good idea]
23. Peak Oil Conspiracy 23

    6 February 2008 at 4:15 am

    Randal:

    “if you aint here to discuss the issues then push off.if the limit of your argument is to call someone an illiterate tosser then you are just a name calling boobie. byeeeeeeeee”

    “looks like granny is a whore and takes it both ways”

    Both quotes from Randal. He/she clearly likes it both ways too!
24. Phil 24

    6 February 2008 at 11:13 am

    It might just be me, but I still laugh every time I see the ad for “Facelift”, with HC’s line “we were just cruising along and all of a sudden these polls came out of nowhere and smashed into us.”

    Gold!
25. RANDAL 25

    6 February 2008 at 9:52 pm

    actually I think an unknown will be thrust into power because of a bizarre series of events and occurrences after the spaceships arrive and the future of the whole planet earth is at stake!
26. Graeme 26

    7 February 2008 at 12:09 pm

    petermcc, most parties in the nz parliament voted for the EFA. Guess that makes it multi-partisan.

    In favour:
    Labour
    New Zealand First
    Greens
    Progressives (1 MP)

    Opposed:
    National
    ACT
    UNited Future
    Maori Party

    Not much of a majority. And if you add in the no votes from Single MPs (you have to add single MP Jim Anderton to get it even) then with Taito Philip Field and Gordon Copeland it’s 4 to 6. I’m not saying the number is important – it certainly got the votes to pass – but I don’t think you can really call it multi-partisan.
27. Weather Eye Of The North 27

    10 February 2008 at 8:18 am

    Who really, really believes that the Herald is an honourable rag. It’s a shit paper. It (or it’s absentee owners) have already decided it’s National ’08 and it vomits accordingly.

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