TV3 poll presents challenge

Written By: - Date published: 11:28 pm, February 5th, 2008 - 38 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The latest TV3 poll comes hot on the heels of Labour MPs gathering for their first caucus meeting of the year.

“National can govern alone in the latest 3 News poll at 49 percent. It has shed two points, from what was an artificial high.But Labour drops to 35 percent, the lowest it has been since the last election.The Greens are back to 7 percent and crucially over the 5 percent threshold to get back to Parliament.NZ First is on 3 percent, it needs leader Winston Peters to win Tauranga, or it faces oblivion.The Maori Party is at 3 percent while Act and United Future barely register.”

With the House returning next week the task for Labour MPs is to show that they have the passion and hunger for the job that Helen Clark portrays.

“Miss Clark said her message to the caucus was that Labour would have the most compelling vision for the future, the best solutions and the best policy.”

The public are demanding that they deliver.

38 comments on “TV3 poll presents challenge”

  1. Policy Parrot 1

    What this poll continues to demonstrate is that while National on current polling is likely to be the biggest party after the next election, it is at risk of remaining in opposition, as in this poll it’s majority lies within the margin of error.

    Even giving United Future’s seat to the National-led bloc would still only result in 63 seats. And the Maori Party’s earlier claim that will defeat Labour in all 7 of the Maori seats could lead to a 2-3 extra seat overhang which could make it even tougher to gain a “reform minded majority”.

    The likelihood of this scenario may pose an interesting question of pro-National voters on the Maori roll. Do they hold their nose and vote for the Labour candidate in the hope it could prevent being shut out of government, or running a crippled government supported by the Maori Party; or do they vote for the Maori Party candidate?

  2. outofbed 2

    Yes National is going to remain the biggest party for the foreseeable future methinks. Labours vote was never going to go beyond 41 42
    They will be luck to get 37 38 with the Green 6 or 7. It will still be probably enough. No wonder key is choking on rodents.
    I’m not sure about Peters I think it will probably be best if NZF gets 4.99 % and he loses Tauranga

  3. Potunami 3

    See John Quay greasing up Tama Iti, hoping for the Maori vote, not likely.
    I can see national plunging in the polls very soon.

  4. Like the Fall say my friend: “no xmas for john quay”…

  5. Chemist Peter 5

    Boys, boys, boys.
    Today’s events will only enhance JK. Where was HC?0At some in- significant Marae near Waitangi? JK being on the TV/radio is good for his image, going where there was nothing to lose. His ‘get over it Helen’ remark will also add to JK in the eyes of the people.

    Also, can someone tell me, is it Miss/Ms/Mrs Clark, I though Miss is for non married wenches. Adds to the confusing message of what she is. Can’t really say Peter Davis is a real husband, as it is he is gathering dust until the duster comes out on election night.

    Also, how can you trust a leader who sent the NZ economy into a tailspin in 1990? Selective memory when it came to the perilous state of the BNZ Bank.

    BTW, great co-incidence, the EPMU wants to form as a party with a spend of ………. $120K. Gee, go figure.

  6. Hey Pete. Can you post coherently or are you just a dumb cunt? Nah don’t even bother answering cocksucker. I know it’s the latter. But is it true you’re still a virgin?

  7. AncientGeek 7

    Robinsod:
    I’m surprised at you – after all of that well argued stuff over at the economics site. Must be the company you run across here.

  8. Bro – economics is play. So’s this. Maybe I should tone it down a bit though, eh? The last thing I need is Irish or Tane bitching at me…

    Oh, and I have it on good authority that CP is in fact a virgin – I’d say it would go a long way to explaining his immature ejaculations here.

  9. CoolDude 9

    Robinsod, any foulmouthed prat who speaks like you, is sexually deprived.

    [lprent – junk warning – this is probably dad4justice under yet another alias. It is a new IP range, but we have the same characteristics. Dad also appears to be unhappy. The other two messages were left wing nut messages, that I found even more offensive than his usual style – cliches, assumptions, no thought.]

  10. Chemist Peter’s spouted the occasional shit over at No Minister too – including using the delightful term “sand niggers,” so calling him a dumb cunt is really more far more polite than he deserves.

  11. Chemist Peter 11

    Robinsod, my arse is still a virgin is yours?
    PMt is right, I hate Islam to the hilt, no place for them in western society, like a cancer spreading as far as I am concerned.

  12. Monty 12

    You just gotta laugh – the polls continue to show National significantly in the lead, Key getting heaps of coverage in the media (Media darling isn’t he), no one wants to listen to Clark anymore, the greens are complete flakes and you lefties look in desperation for any little positive sign in each poll without realising that NZ is so well and truely over Labour that they are heading for the biggest defeat since 1990.

    Here is some news – Labour may win silver in the upcoming election, but it is a one horse race and National are so far our in front that there is no second. Most of the other horses in the field have fallen by the way. And Winston realising that his political survival will depend on cuddling upto National will soon throw his toys out of the cot and trip up the increasingly lame horse with the red suited jockey.

  13. outofbed 13

    Monty Do you understand MMP ?
    Reading today’s diatribe from you, apparently not

  14. CP – no it’s not. You get bent over and fucked in it every time you step onto this blog.

    [lprent – rein in the language. There isn’t a point in this conversation]

  15. classic Rob;
    “Hey Pete. Can you post coherently or are you just a dumb cunt? Nah don’t even bother answering cocksucker. I know it’s the latter. But is it true you’re still a virgin?”
    Outstanding effort Rob, you are a true VULGARIAN.
    Anyway backto thetopic.
    Trying hard to put aside my distaste for Clark for a moment, it is hard to see what more she could have done over the last few days to look less like a lame duck leader of the Labour party. Everything she touches goes wrong at the moment. A once compliant media have turned on her, she has made all the wrong moves at waitangi and those of you that believe she can rely on the maori party post election probably still believe in Santa, the tooth fairy and the All Blacks.
    happy days

  16. Hey Bill, I figure it’s horses for courses. I’m starting to agree with you about Clark – she seems to be foundering in terms of her PR. I can’t agree with you on the media, I don’t think they are turning on her (in fact I reckon they’re lifting their game a bit in terms of calling National on its spin) but I think Labour is not handling the media well at all at the mo’. As far as the Maori party goes I can only say an agreement with National would cause massive damage to each party (think NZF/Nat coalition turned up to 11) but I’m not so sure National’s hunger for power and the Maori parties political stupidity won’t lead to them trying it. If we end up with the Maori party as the deal makers I’d be advising Clark to step back let National try to swallow that rat and prepare for a snap election.

  17. Policy Parrot 17

    Rob – I don’t think there’d be a snap election in that case. Maori Party MP’s would follow the Mauri Pacific example – (interesting aside both parties MP)and hold on for grim death regardless of the damage they do.

    They’d just get an agreement to limit damage to Maori voters. Still don’t know how that would work though.

    Captcha “Shoddy a”

  18. I am off to the beach shortly so last comment for a few hours.
    For national to be spinning they would actually have to start saying something. Lucky for them they have not needed to say much.
    Clark and co’s performance of late is classic third term tiredness.
    They have no new ideas, the electorate are bored with them and they will not get enough votes to form a govt. the maori party will go with National because key has and is demonstrating a willingness to negotiate and compromise. He is not a typical party leader. He is a self made success story. if we want to be an aspirational society we need aspirational leaders. The current crop on both sides of the house (but more so in labour) are not people we can look upto. There is not a single winner in the Labour front bench and not too many on the other side either.
    I don’t think replacing Clark with Goff would help them much now, and that is probably the only reason she will not be dumped by her party.

  19. Beach canceled. family off to Whangerai birthday shopping for ME. Which eans Iget to blog and watch fox news all day. excellent.
    I just don’t get the whole Ann Coulter is hot thing. She reminds me of Annette Presley with a brain, all hawk faced and psycho eyes. shudder.
    Hone was hilarious on Breakfast this morning. There is no way he will cuddle up to Clarke… or Goff

  20. Phil 20

    I find it hard to fathom the smug “I know best” arrogance some of show toward the prospect of a National-Maori coalition.

    This sort of cross-culture/party/wing coalition is exactly what MMP was supposed to bring to New Zealand (ie; “inclusiveness” in Government). It’s exactly the type of coalition we see in MMP-like parliaments across the globe.

    I also don’t see the problem of taking a National-Maori coalition to the iwi of New Zealand either. The Maori party simply say; “We can either let the Nats run free, or enter into coalition and do our bit to control them.”

    Some of you think that Maori voters are smart enough to understand MMP, perhaps even a little more than the average “two-ticks” European (I’m inclined to agree), and yet they wont be smart enough to understand the potential necessity of a such a coalition…

  21. outofbed 21

    IWI/KIWI WTF

  22. Monty 22

    Outofbed – please, please keep under-estimating John Key and the National Party – much the same as Clark has been for the past three weeks. (in fact past 14 months)

    National are smart enough to play the long game – and even if they do not need Maori Party this year, the Nats should still offer to bring them into the tent to be able to demonstrate to NZ that the two parties can work together. Proving this point means that when we need a co-alition partner in 2011 and 2014 we have wider options available that say Labour who will still be trying to rebuild due to their implosion and routing in 2008.

    I think you will find the next poll will see a major uplift for John Key and National, as well as an uplift for the Maori Party – both at the expense of Labour. From this solid foundation National will win the election with an absolute majority. And watch out for the Greens to further sink below 5%.

  23. outofbed 23

    Yawn

  24. Phil 24

    nOOB…

  25. Wendigo Jane 25

    EMBISHISS, YEES, EMBISHISS FOR NEWZLD
    Success story??
    Aspirational Aspirational FOR GODS SAKE IS THIS EVEN A WORD??
    Winners???
    OMG are you channeling Kevin Saatchi Roberts’ arsehole Bill?
    Now I have to wash my mouth out (for saying aspirational)
    Mr Jane (so no one gets confused, yes, it’s Mr).

    [lprent – suspiciously like d4j? Nope]

  26. Medication mix up there do you think?

  27. Wendigo Jane 27

    Yes I think I am confused, B. You see I keep having this weird waking nightmare – I’m in a strange place where men have formed a cargo cult, they chant ASPIRATION and worship a power-hungry creature called a Jonkey – man bring da cargo, hurry, hurry, we all soon be rich too lik im, some magic dollar sign shaped danders will brush off the Jonkey on to me (they pray).
    Jane

    [lprent – suspiciously like d4j? Nope]

  28. J 28

    JOHN KEY BROWN NOSES HIS WAY THROUGH WAITANGI, “IT JUST COMES NATURALLY” SAYS KEY.

    LATER KEY WAS HEARD DESPERATELY LOOKING FOR THE GUY WHO CHOPPED DOWN THE ONE TREE ON ONE TREE HILL.

    “WE NEED ALL THE PHOTO OPS WE CAN GET WHILE WE THINK UP SOME POLICY ” ASSERTED THE NEW YORK TRADER.”WE HAVE PETROL VOUCHERS AND RIDES IN THE NATIONAL PARTY STAFF CAR FOR ANYONE INTERESTED.”

  29. photo ops I hear you say… How many dead kiwis has he cuddled in the last year for the sake of a nice pic in the paper.
    I make the score Clark 2 Key 0.

  30. If one of those two was Ed Hillary, reduce Clark’s score by 1 – the PM is expected to attend a state funeral, especially if the dead guy’s a friend.

    Another one, BB: how many church services has Clark attended in the last year despite not believing in God? Key wins hands down.

    How about: how many prayers has Clark offered at Waitangi, despite not believing in God? That score stands at Clark: 0, Key: 1.

    Or: how often has Clark tried to chum up to the Maori Party, despite having every intention of getting rid of their seats? Clark: 0, Smiling Assassin: I’ve lost count.

    Or: how many times this year has Clark said she’d have no moral issue with helping a foreign speculator artificially crash the NZ dollar as long as she got her fee? Clark: 0, Key: 1.

    The man’s a whore with a very expensive price tag.

  31. Santi 31

    “The man’s a whore with a very expensive price tag.”

    Are you talking about the poodle Winston Peters? The description fits 100%.

  32. outofbed 32

    Santi well done great reply, that got him

  33. AncientGeek 33

    John Key just strikes me as being shallow, and I have absolutely no idea what he stands for.

    Well actually, I think he stands for not standing up for anything. The way he twists in interviews about what he or the nats believe in is appalling. I get the impression that in his caucus he is continually reiterating the one thing we know about his principles – that you have to win. Consequently there is a lot of dead rat swallowing.

    With Helen, hate it or love it, you always know exactly where she stands. You know that she will keep pushing it through her caucus until someone convinces her that idea is flawed.

    If this comes down to a leader credibility contest, then who would be fool enough to trust a leader and caucus who will sacrifice anything to win ?

  34. outofbed 34

    I just had a look at The National Parties candidate List for the 2008 Election.
    I then played the game “spot the candidate from the centre”
    Didn’t take long
    I then played the spot the RWNJ candidate game

    … Fish in a barrel

  35. gobsmacked 35

    I know it’s nothing like as important as John holding hands with Hone’s mum, but I just thought you should know …

    Unemployment is at a record low.

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/latest/200802071109/unemployment_level_hits_22-year_low

    Ah, don’t you miss the 1990’s?

  36. AncientGeek 36

    outofbed:
    Yeah I think the nats are running this interesting strategy.

    Act confused about who and what they are in public. Of course definitely not be specific about policy that we may be held to account on later.. Pray no one has too close a look at the actual opinions of their candidates in aggregate, because it is currently very right wing and not at all centrist.

    It is unusual for people to go into politics without a strongly held set of opinions and beliefs. But as you say, there seem to be few centrists in the nats candidate list at electorate level. I’m not sure that I’d characterize all of their right leaning candidates as RWNJ (Right Wing Nut Jobs). But they look in aggregate to be to the right of Brashes candidate list in 2005.

    Perhaps they will correct this imbalance when they start looking at the list candidates to become a centre-right party rather than a right-wing party. Yeah right…..

    Currently it looks more like nats are trying to run a con on the voters.

  37. outofbed 37

    AG I don’t think all their candidates are RWNJ, that would be extreme even for me, however there are a fair few scattered on the list.

    I see the Greens and the MP are now talking That has the possibility of being a big enough dead rat that even the contemplation of it swallowing it, would be seen as suicidal

    http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/latest/200802070814/greens_open_to_closer_ties_with_maori_party

  38. Wendigo Jane 38

    Unemployment is at a record low. Maori life expectancy relative to Pakeha has improved and death rates between all ethnic groups and rich & poor are no longer widening as they did in the Eighties and Nineties. Suicide rates peaked in the mid Nineties. There is a baby boom on – highest birth rate since the 70s. But who cares! We’re just not winners!

    [lprent – suspiciously like d4j?]

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