Super Tuesday
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8:00 am, March 4th, 2020 - 61 comments
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In the US of A today is Super Tuesday. California, Texas, North Carolina and 11 other states and one territory will be voting for their preferred candidate.
The Democrat race has sharpened somewhat. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have both pulled out and have endorsed Joe Biden. The timing and circumstances screams of some sort of deal being done.
Meanwhile on the left Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders continue to duel it out. I still have a soft spot for Sanders but I am really concerned about his health and the effect it could have on voters’ perceptions of him.
This is something that he is trying to dispel.
Meanwhile the rich candidate is struggling with some pretty basic facts:
And don’t listen to moderate republicans saying the Democrats should go for a centrist candidate. There should be very few moderate republicans left.
The race is really tight and anything could happen. But today should give a pointer to who will finally succeed.
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I heard on the radio that Bernie is favorite to win the two big states of California and Texas.
Even if Bernie does well today, it is difficult to see him win the nomination, given the flurry of endorsements that Biden is getting from the Dem establishment.
Trump and his Christian Taliban supporters are the biggest threat to US civil society. What is left of FDR's New Deal, LBJ's Great Society, and the 1960's sexual revolution are under threat from Trump and his cronies. If Biden is the best man to oust the likes of Trump, Munchin, DeVos, Carson and Barr, then we need to get behind him, before they turn the US into Gilead.
Do you actually really mean this person…
FFS I feel like I am I living in some sort of weird child's fantasy book…seriously can't you people see Biden is quite obviously suffering from some sort of age related cognitive degeneration condition….
Trump quite obviously is not…
Trump really is a kind of natural piss taker.
There is a version of that vid where he goes on to "policy", and yeah, he falls flat and is only buoyed by the hype he generates in the "stand up comedy" part of his speech.
Against Biden….fuck, I shudder and cringe at the mere thought. Against Bernie, at least the policy part gets exposed even if the piss taking hits.
Not strategic enough. If Biden wins, he'll do nothing about the problems that gave the world Trump. He provides a few years of soft-focus, incoherent Obama-nostalgia – before someone worse than Trump turns up on the Republican side ready to exploit the rage.
Fivethirtyeight are forecasting Biden and Bernie to come out of Super Tuesday about even in delegates.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
They are not updating their forecast today until actual results start coming in, which won't be until after 1:00pm our time.
I'm betting:
A Sanders margin of at least 200 delegates.
I am not very interested in the results from California, Utah, Vermont, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Alabama, Oklahoma, or Arkansas. Those states will be either solid red or solid blue in November, and whether Bernie or Biden is the nominee will make no difference to the Electoral College outcome in November.
I'm most interested in Colorado, Texas, North Carolina, Virginia and Minnesota. Because those are the states closest to tipping one way or the other in November. So if either Bernie or Biden is clearly stronger in aggregate across those states, it's a strong hint to which one has better prospects in November.
But fivethirtyeight has mixed forecasts for those: Biden strongly ahead in North Carolina and Virginia, Sanders ahead in Colorado and Minnesota, about even in Texas.
Realclear politics has Sanders winning Texas by 1.5 but Biden closing fast. Interestingly Biben/Bloomberg have 46 while Sanders/Warren have 44. Bernie could be in trouble.
But you are wrong to ignore the states with certain outcomes…any candidate that reaches 15% gets a swathe of degates even if they lose.
Given that Warren doesn't stand a chance its not exactly a 'duel' is it. More like an attempted drag down …
Your concern about Bernies health is however very touching.
I suspect the average voter is more interested in his plans for their Health Care…
Given that Warren doesn't stand a chance its not exactly a 'duel' is it. More like an attempted drag down
I think there's a plausible case to be made that we're well on the way to no-one winning a majority of delegates and the convention is contested in one form or another.
Bloomberg is in for the long-haul and it would be a *disaster* if he was allowed a kingmaker role with whatever delegates he commands. If Warren remains in the race maybe there are more options on the table for the delegate math to shake out.
Warren is dead, as far as having any hope at all for the nomination goes.
Anyone who comes a poor third in her own home State has no chance at all. She would be wise to quit now while she still has some dignity left. If she goes on any longer I fear that she will end up being dumped by her own supporters.
I was not in favour of her. My own favourite was Buttigieg. She did however offer her policies honestly, with the reasoning and costs of implementing them spelled out. That is far more than Sanders has done.
Yes, but that is only because Farrar's favourite was Buttigieg. Learn to think for yourself. It is liberating.
Are you always so foolish in your statements? I was for Buttigieg, and Klobuchar for VP, because I thought they were the best choices.
I'll assume you are right about Farrar's views. I don't know what he thinks but you clearly follow his opinions closely. Frankly I prefer to follow my own beliefs rather than want someone else to decide them for me. Who is your Guru these days?
Your views invariably line up with Farrar's. This appears to be a universal constant.
Oh, I'm not suggesting Warren has a hope at the nomination herself now.
I'm suggesting the small accumulation of delegates she takes to the convention could be either (a) a useful foil to stop Bloomberg having any pretensions to kingmaker and/or (b) be an olive branch between a skeptical 'establishment' on the way to a Sanders nomination.
You might be right. I think her best chance of achieving her aims would be to switch to Sanders now, come out with a fulsome declaration of support for him and campaign for him from now on.
I think that would give Sanders the best chance of being the Candidate and put her in line for a senior Cabinet Post if he wins. She can't be VP of course. Vermont and Massachusetts are far to close together.
I suspect her money supply will dry up if she does hang around now and she will simply be seen as a spoiler.
However you may be more accurate in your opinions than I am.
It has been reported on the late news tonight that Elizabeth Warren has withdrawn from the contest.
Realclear politics has Sanders winning Texas by 1.5 but Biden closing fast. Interestingly Biben/Bloomberg have 46 while Sanders/Warren have 44. Bernie could be in trouble.
But you are wrong to ignore the states with certain outcomes…any candidate that reaches 15% gets a swathe of degates even if they lose.
Good morning MS, nice that you have a 'soft spot' for the most important Left Wing politician to emerge in the West post war , also good to see you have a 'soft spot' for the man who is at this very moment conducting an epic ideological battle within the most powerful country in the world, an incredible and monumental moment in modern history, the likes of we will probably never witness in our lifetimes again.
Warren has completely destroyed any progressive credibility she might have had, and has exposed herself as nothing more than a cynical political player of the worst sort.
BTW, if you have concerns for any ones health, I suggest that would be Biden.
When it is the super delegates controlled by the corporate Democratic party who decide the winner of the nomination in this case Biden you can see why so many Americans don't come out too vote at the General election.
Corporate America decides who will be nominated not the voting public.
Something needs too change.
You are either for Super delegates or not as being able to exercise their political judgement based on their deep experience in the party. If you think all they should do is follow the majority then they have no point. Just let general primary voters decide.
There was a film called "Weekend at Bernie's" back in the late eighties.
Very good!
Ageist jokes are always funny, Siobhan. Have you got any good ones about mother in laws or coloured people? They're a riot too!
Are you calling Biden seeking the nomination an exercise in affirmative action?
Gaslighting, and false equivalence all in one concern troll comment – how droll.
Given the average age of the presidential hopefuls at this point it's clear US voters are the opposite of ageist.
They are frightened of the young.
No wonder Sanders is a threat, when the democratic establishment let this piece of shit be their guy.
https://www.mintpressnews.com/mike-bloomberg-ties-jeffery-epstein-harvey-weinstein/265369/
Tulsi and Mikey get their first pledged delegates!
Apparently in American Samoa, Mikey got 50% and Tulsi got 29% and everyone else below 15%. So Mikey gets 4 delegates and Tulsi gets 2.
Exit polls suggest there's quite a large gender gap in Sanders' support, with Sanders' vote share among women being 5% to 10% lower than among men in almost all states.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/entrance-and-exit-polls/south-carolina/democratic
In contrast, Biden's support appears similar across men and women, with only Virginia showing women supporting Biden significantly more than men.
I wonder if a lot of the Sanders gap is mirrored by support for Warren?
In the exit polls for most states, there is indeed a female bias in Warren's support. But it's almost always a lot less than the male bias in Sanders' support.
Well, at least when you read the Standard, you're ahead of the news! I called Biden yesterday and so it turns out.
The Democratic Party 'establishment' (aka hundreds of thousands of politically active working class Americans) have chosen one of their own to be their candidate, rather than the independent Senator Sanders. I hope that the majority of Bernie backers will have the heart and brains to now back the party's choice. I'm not holding my breath though.
I know it's tough when working people show they have a mind of their own, but trust me, they're not going to be lectured on what's good for them by lefty purists. Enough sneering from the sidelines; it simply doesn't work.
Now Biden has to pick a running mate. I really hope it's a progressive woman who can add to the campaign rather than just be a footnote. Beating Trump needs a team, from doorsteps to debates.
I'm confused. You say the drive behind Biden is gallant, working class America who won't be sneered at by leftie purists.
But Bill says it's corporate-backed grifters desperately clinging to institutional power.
Do you mind getting together and letting the rest of us who don't give a monkey's what the real story is?
And keep it short please.
Black voters overwhelmingly backing Biden tonight… make of that what you will.
Yep – strange. You might think that free (at the point of use) healthcare, higher minimum wage and free tuition at public colleges might actually disproportionately help African Americans.
The explanation I've seen most commonly is that black voters, especially older ones, have seen times much worse than now (as hard to believe as it may seem). They are also aware that big upheavals almost always have big repercussions that are usually negative for those at the bottom of the pile. So they want steady progress, not a revolution.
In a nutshell, Bernie frightens the horses and black people don't trust frightened horses to vote in their own best interests.
But, what a lot of white liberals fail to realize is that a lot of their skinfolk know Trump is a lying dumb, corrupt, inept prez. However, he hasn’t materially affected their lives in any way
Those ppl would quickly vote for a regular, run-of-the-mill moderate Dem over Trump
But when you talk about raising taxes, upsetting the status quo and redistribution of wealth, white America (even the ones with NO WEALTH) gets a little nervous, which makes black America VERY nervous.
And when white America gets a cold, Black folks get the Coronavirus
We know, when general election time comes, white swing voters are undoubtedly gonna themselves, their individual interests and their pockets over the collective greater good.
If there is one thing that is invariably true, it is that white folks will forever and always whitefolk
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1232191808320548864.html
black voters, especially older ones, have seen times much worse than now (as hard to believe as it may seem)
You'd have to be VERY young for that to be hard to believe, Andre.
Or trapped in an echo chamber, trying to fight off the imaginary hordes of mainstream media and Dem elites all nefariously conspiring with our corporate overlords to oppress the true heroes of the class struggle.
😀
The blacks probably support Biden because they saw that that Obama, also black, chose Biden as his running mate.
Heh.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3rbxa6.jpg?w=575
Maybe even Bloomberg sees the writing on the wall. After a brick drops out of it and hits him in the head.
https://apnews.com/4b7a6e2de46b8d9594a55833f8061094
Bloomberg would be perfectly happy with a Biden presidency – or a Trump one for that matter – so he may as well drop out. In fact 'mission accomplished' for him, because despite his protestations about the need to beat Trump, he entered the race to help beat Sanders.
Why in the primaries are the delegates shared, but in the presidential election winner takes all?
The delegates to the Party Conventions are chosen in any way the Party decides. The way that delegates to the Electoral College are chosen is a decision made by each States Legislature. There are a couple, Maine and Nebraska, that allocate them between the candidates. All the others, at least presently, go with a winner-take -all approach. They can of course change it.
Because the parties decide the rules for the primaries (the Repug rules for delegate allocations are very different to the Dems), whereas for the presidential elections the states decide how to allocate their electors. Maine and Nebraska do not have winner take all, they allocate two electors to the statewide winner, then their remaining electors go to the winners of the individual House districts in the state. So in 2016, Maine had 3 electors for Clinton and one for the Kremlin Gremlin.
It's all over – Sanders becomes an intriguing footnote to history like Eugene V. Debs. A lost dream of a better world. Buckle down for 4 more years of Trump.
Shit………………………………..
Biden is boring, boring boring.
America… the home of the stupid!
As I said below, the centrists own it now. It's on them if Trump get another term. Team Bernie should be counting their blessings.
Fivethirtyeight have a clear concise chart of how the results came out against their projections. Notably, 538's projections already included quite a bounce for Biden.
Biden outperformed the projections in most states. He's about even with projection in Texas and Colorado, and underperforming (so far) in California and Utah.
Notably, Colorado , California and Utah are predominantly or exclusively postal voting, and Texas had a lot of early voting.
Looks like there were an awful lot of voters holding back for some kind of signal that Biden was indeed a viable candidate, and South Carolina provided that signal.
Bernie's results were pretty close to forecast, except his home Vermont where he underperformed and Colorado and Utah where he beat his forecast.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday/
https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status/1235087973424795649
https://twitter.com/usnews/status/1235060435260338179
If Biden loses to Trump in November, the moderates cannot blame the left of the party. They own this now. If the former VP wins, then good, no more Trumpenfurher, if he loses, then Carvell, Chait, Krugman, Pelosi et al cannot say it was all Bernie's fault for promising free stuff.
Trump is going to win regardless. The US is too far right to countenance Sanders, and Biden is way too frail to compete against Trump. He will be savaged.
It staggers me that in a nation of 330 million jumped up egomaniacs they can't put up a decent opposition to the pussy grabber.
I suspect Americans are so consumed by tradition and centrism that any kind of reform is, because of that superstition, crushed before it can flower.
A nation in decline.
I have yet to see an aggregate delegate estimate result for super tuesday. But adding up the individual state estimates from The Green Papers ( https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/CA-D ) I get Biden won 629 pledged delegates, and Bernie won 533. Added to those previously won, that makes Biden's estimated total 683 and Bernie's 593.
I make it there's been 1512 pledged delegates awarded so far. Of those, Biden has won 683 (45.2%) and Bernie 593 (39.2%).