The Draft Electoral Boundaries

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, March 27th, 2025 - 11 comments
Categories: David Farrar, elections, electoral commission, electoral systems, national, Politics - Tags:

The Representation Commission’s draft boundaries for the next election have been released.

DPF has claimed that the changes will help National in a number of seats and only help Labour in a small number. The claim is from Richard Harman’s Politik website, which I have a subscription to, and not DPF’s paetron site which I refuse to have a subscription to.

Of course Farrar would say this. His claim to fame is that he foments happy mischief. And every comment he makes is National clever Labour crap.

But his claim is hard to understand. Because if National wanted to maximise its advantage it had the chance to make it really hard for Labour to win seats in the Auckland Isthmus. But it did not take this chance.

I posted before on the topic and said this:

Andrew Geddis has suggested we could get rid of Epsom. Its population could be taken up by Auckland Central, Mount Albert, Mount Roskill, Maungakiekie, Tamaki, North Shore and Northcote. These seats could accommodate 50,000 or so of Epsom’s population and be on quota. Oversized electorates could mean that very little adjustment to these electorates would be necessary apart from absorbing Epsom into their respective ranks.

What I feared but did not say was that getting rid of Epsom would mean that National would dominate Auckland’s istmus. Have a look at the electorates.

If Epsom disappeared the redistribution of its voters would cause Auckland Central to swing to the right, probably irreversibly. Mt Roskill and Maungakiekie would be really difficult to win for Labour and Mt Albert would become much more marginal.

So DPF’s claims should be taken with a great deal of skepticism. If National wanted to maximise its electorate chances it would have sacrificed Epsom and spread all of those rich right wing votes into the neighbouring electorates.

West Auckland looks interesting. My initial impression is that Glendene is as safe as houses, Ranui looks pretty good and Waitakere is very similar to the Titirangi seat that David Cunliffe won in 1999. Candidate selection will be important. Labour has three MPs and one on the cusp and needs to make sure that the right candidate stands in the right seat.

Out West for National is difficult. There is no path to return for National MP Paulo Garcia. Even now I would confidently predict that he will lose. He is actually quite a nice guy that I have occasional engagements with but I am afraid that politics is like this.

The boundaries are draft only and subject to change.

11 comments on “The Draft Electoral Boundaries ”

  1. Bearded Git 1
    27 March 2025 at 8:15 am

    I'm sure the Nats would love to get rid of Chloé from Akl Central. Good luck with that (sarc)

    Reply
  2. Res Publica 2
    27 March 2025 at 8:42 am

    Also of note is that Palmy will become slightly less safe for Labour, but the new Manawatu + Levin seat may well be winnable for the right candidate.

    Reply
  3. Ad 3
    27 March 2025 at 9:48 am

    The Greens will have a somewhat harder time regaining Wellington Central with the loss of Ohariu and its redistributed boundaries.

    Labour does pretty well out of this in Auckland's west, even though I really feel for the New Lynn LEC my old stomping ground for a couple of decades. We have a very good shot at taking back a bunch after the tide went out last time.

    I'm somewhat sad that we still don't have a Central Otago seat that would take chunks out of Waitaki and Southland. Granted however that would need an exceptional candidate and a following wind to get the line first.

    Reply
    • SPC 3.1
      27 March 2025 at 3:12 pm

      New Lynn men can now be Waitakere man.

      Auckland's version of Florida man.

      Waitakere man seen at Piha Beach … looking at woman walking with Rangi.

      Reply
  4. Stephen D 4
    27 March 2025 at 10:49 am

    Not much changed for Whangaparāoa and KKM. It would take a miracle for either not to be blue.

    Reply
  5. thinker 5
    27 March 2025 at 1:23 pm

    If DPF wants to say the changes benefit National more than Labour, let him. I looked at the changes in my sphere of knowledge and pretty happy they at least do no harm and hopefully do some good to my favourite politician.

    DPF saying otherwise just helps reduce opposition to the bits that benefit the left, IMHO.

    Reply
  6. Belladonna 6
    27 March 2025 at 3:25 pm

    The point that I take from this is that the Electoral Commission really is independent.
    Their decisions have not significantly benefited the government in power.

    This is a very good thing for democracy in NZ.

    Reply
  7. DS 7
    27 March 2025 at 3:33 pm

    National will be happiest in Christchurch. Seriously, these boundaries turn Wigram into a bellwether.

    Labour got very lucky in the lower South Island. There would be a very reasonable case for putting the rest of Clutha into Taieri, but it hasn't happened this time.

    As for Auckland: it's large, but it's right-wing, obsessed with Culture War, and full of voters who early vote and are un-persuadable. Really, the priority for Auckland Labour should be mobilising turnout in South Auckland… and that's it. Otherwise, Auckland is a waste of resources. The sooner Labour realises that a quarter of the country lives in the South Island, and that the South Island is more Left-friendly and less Culture War-obsessed than the North (especially the Upper North), the better.

    Reply
    • Belladonna 7.1
      27 March 2025 at 4:58 pm

      There are huge swathes of the South Island which are resolutely conservative. They may party vote NZF or Labour but they're never going to vote out the local National candidate in favour of Labour. [In a normal year – 2020 was abnormal in ways which are unlikely to ever be repeated]

      Rural electorates are not a natural home for Labour. They do best in provincial cities (and in Wellington) and, increasingly, from the party vote.

      Having said that – 2023 was a disastrous election for Labour. But, in some electorates (West Auckland for example) – National won, largely because they weren't Labour – and didn't carry all of the Covid-government baggage with them. National didn't have great candidates, they weren't being welcomed with open arms, but, they weren't the government which had locked down Auckland, repeatedly.

      Those electorates should not be considered 'lost' to Labour. But, they need to think hard about putting the right candidates in place (NB: *not* the ones recycled from the previous government, who were mostly a poor fit for the electorate – even if they may have been a good fit for the government (I'd argue that they were neither – but YYMV.) IMO, upper middle class intelligentsia don't go down well with Westies.

      TBH, if Labour abandons Auckland, then they abandon being in government. The population is too large to be ignored.

      Reply
    • Ad 7.2
      27 March 2025 at 7:43 pm

      Labour Auckland west and north:

      Glendene is strong.

      Ranui is strong.

      Mt Roskill improves.

      Mt Albert improves.

      Maungakiekie improves.

      Waitakere is good thanks to years of local work.

      Northcote slightly improves.

      North Harbour is much harder.

      Helensville is same.

      Reply
    • lprent 7.3
      28 March 2025 at 4:02 pm

      There are only 16 electorates in South Island.

      There are 48 in the North Island.

      Slightly less than half of the NI seats are in the Auckland city area.

      The populations per electorate are roughly proportional.

      As for Auckland: it's large, but it's right-wing, obsessed with Culture War, and full of voters who early vote and are un-persuadable.

      I suspect that you might be over-egging that a lot. Recently I have find most of the culture warriors I run across are in the South Island. They still read e-mail spam from Act, listen to talkback radio stations, and are usually somewhat elderly and conservative – you can tell. Still watch free=to-air TV and have landlines.

      Reply

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