Written By: - Date published: 10:07 am, July 31st, 2017 - 114 comments
With all the speculation about polls, it’s time to have a discussion about polling and the cold, hard facts around it. Is it good news for the left?
Written By: - Date published: 12:02 pm, July 26th, 2017 - 80 comments
Without a cup of tea in sight National has announced that it will asking supporters to vote for Act leader David Seymour in Epsom and United Future leader Peter Dunne in Ohariu.
Written By: - Date published: 7:24 am, March 27th, 2017 - 73 comments
Marama Fox opens the way for the Māori Party to work with Labour and the Greens.
Written By: - Date published: 8:00 am, March 4th, 2017 - 22 comments
2017 will be New Zealand’s eighth election under MMP, over 22 years. With very strong democratically elected governments appearing right across the world digging in for the long term, it’s useful to take a moment for MMP.
Written By: - Date published: 5:51 pm, February 20th, 2017 - 53 comments
The agreement between the Mana Movement and the Māori Party.
Written By: - Date published: 7:49 am, January 26th, 2017 - 103 comments
Greg Presland has been daft enough put his hand up for Labour candidate in New Lynn. That would be unfortunate for this site. But my advice for Labour and New Lynn is to grab him. Media say that the leading candidates are him and Deborah Russell. Regardless of a her competence, a non-Auckland resident is a big ask in the era of MMP seats.
Written By: - Date published: 3:45 pm, October 9th, 2016 - 139 comments
As a computer programmer and someone who has been involved in politics for decades, I’m always amazed at idiots like Malcolm Alexander of the LGNZ talking about something that they clearly don’t understand the technicalities of. Online voting is way too fragile to roll out. And anyway young voters are still going to not have their voting details at hand.
Written By: - Date published: 9:08 am, September 30th, 2016 - 139 comments
Don Brash and a group of other predominately privileged white males are complaining that Maori may also be receiving some privilege.
Written By: - Date published: 11:12 am, May 12th, 2016 - 20 comments
A post to illustrate how fixed term parliaments work…off the back of some really woeful reportage.
Written By: - Date published: 11:03 am, March 20th, 2016 - 139 comments
Recent polling makes it clear that neither National or Labour can win power without the support of NZ First. So should the left be worried that Winston Peters will take his party back over to the blue team?
Written By: - Date published: 7:37 am, July 18th, 2015 - 195 comments
It was reported yesterday that “Labour would retain 90-day trial periods, but make them fairer”. Despite last minute claims to the contrary on Twitter, I think that this is probably correct.
Written By: - Date published: 3:47 pm, April 19th, 2015 - 48 comments
The Greens have closed their nominations for male co-leader, and are running a number of provincial meetings. I went to the second one in Auckland. The biggest issue for the Greens now after cracking the 10% electoral support in 2011 is that they didn’t grow their vote in 2014, and remain well below polling. Part of that is getting their public face right.
Written By: - Date published: 10:38 pm, March 28th, 2015 - 24 comments
Paddy Gower and Duncan Garner don’t understand our electoral system: “that’s MMP”. By-elections are pure First Past the Post – and that’s why Andrew Little didn’t need to do a deal, and Northland doesn’t stink like Epsom.
Written By: - Date published: 3:18 pm, September 22nd, 2014 - 165 comments
No Right Turn points out the underlying truth of voting in an MMP environment. For the party electorate seats don’t matter much. Running electorate only campaigns are not productive. He is wrong in ascribing them no value. They provide a base for campaigning.
Written By: - Date published: 12:45 pm, September 8th, 2014 - 112 comments
The choice for NZ voters is becoming clearer in the last days of the 2014 election. The irony is that after John Key’s scaremongering, our options are a three-headed coalition of natural allies versus a five-or-six headed hydra of extremists and sworn enemies.
Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, August 11th, 2014 - 82 comments
It seems like every time Labour (or the Greens) announce a policy the first question (after “what does John Key think about this?”) is “But the Greens (or Labour) have a different policy to the one you just announced! How can you possibly work together in government?”
Written By: - Date published: 9:38 am, July 30th, 2014 - 94 comments
Key’s promised to do his best to bring in ACT and UnitedHairdo. Last election this brought us the likes of Charter Schools – unmentioned by any party during the campaign. What policies will National foist upon us through this outsourcing deal this time?
Written By: - Date published: 4:32 pm, July 29th, 2014 - 31 comments
Peter Dunne has been thrown the lifeline he has been begging for – National voters have been given the nod by Key to keep him on. One has to ask why would they bother – I can’t see him going back as a Minister after so many stuff ups and a resignation that leaves too many questions unanswered. Ohariu has a much better option in Labour’s Ginny Andersen – if she’d been there a truly independent Parliament would have delivered mothers 26 weeks parental leave for example. Dunne supported it initially but backed down when it came to the crunch.
Written By: - Date published: 10:43 am, July 28th, 2014 - 18 comments
National has all-but confirmed today that there no deal for Colin Craig in East Coast Bays, or for any other Conservative. This was the right thing for them to do, for one simple reason. This decision came down to simple maths. If Key thought the Conservatives could muster double the votes that a decision to back the Conservatives would cost National in the centre-ground, then he should do the deal. If not, he should not. All the stuff about Winston running was a bit of a late sideshow, as the decision had likely already been made.
Written By: - Date published: 4:48 pm, July 15th, 2014 - 50 comments
It looks like I’ll be able to head to the NZ First conference at Alexandra Park racecourse on the weekend as media. This election the position of NZ First party members is probably going to be crucial for any coalition that forms. In this rather long post I explain my (and other peoples) thinking on possible coalition results for National after the election. They aren’t good because they really depend on a political group that National has been denigrating for quite a while.
Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, July 15th, 2014 - 28 comments
Over the weekend John Armstrong had a column about youth voter turnout in the upcoming election. Much of the material was familiar – young people don’t vote so much – nobody talks their language, yo! – parties are Trying Very Hard, but they are also old fuddy-duddies – and so on. He then blamed much of it on a perceived trend toward centrist politics under MPP. But runs directly-if-casually contrary to at least two large research programmes in political science.
Written By: - Date published: 5:56 pm, June 16th, 2014 - 34 comments
Poor David Farrar, he can’t write a post without getting accused of hypocrisy these days. It must have to do with that rancid stench he emanates whenever he gets on his high horse to lecture others. There’s only one political leader out there saying: “Tactical voting is a good idea for my supporters, and long may it continue, but it is a dreadful crime by others.” That leader is John Key.
Written By: - Date published: 1:00 pm, June 16th, 2014 - 26 comments
New Zealand’s democracy would better if we had a lower threshold and no coat-tailing shenanigans. Even without coat-tailing there remains the potential for blocs to make tiny gains by way of electorate deals, but it would ensure the end of manifest unfairnesses like the relative ACT / NZ First results in 2008. The reality is that National had the opportunity to do the right thing, and chose not to for venal self-interested reasons, and are now crying like spoiled brats because their opponents are using it too.
Written By: - Date published: 10:15 am, June 12th, 2014 - 21 comments
What of the deals with true minnow parties, like United Future or ACT? If a party is only polling enough to get one seat anyway, does it matter to Parliament overall whether the small party wins an electorate or its client big party wins it instead? The answer is “possibly, yes,” because we can never be sure which party ultimately loses a seat to accommodate the new minnow party in a 120 seat parliament. Say a Epsom deal as a test case
Written By: - Date published: 3:08 pm, June 6th, 2014 - 45 comments
In Kiwiblog this morning, David Farrar appeared to be running a 9th floor pre-pump for John Banks to resign. But I was rather incredulous when I read this “I don’t think the Judge has actually helped the Government by delaying the decision on entering a conviction. Now that it is the Judge’s role to care about the impact on the Government.”. Huh? DPF badly needs to go back to do some adult education. Perhaps to night school?
Written By: - Date published: 5:26 pm, June 1st, 2014 - 100 comments
On Q&A this morning Josie Pagani criticised Labour for not trying to get the MMP coat tail rule removed. The only problem is that Labour already has a bill ready to do just this. Before criticising the Party for inaction she should learn what the party is actually doing.