The cusp of something “special” in Auckland
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- Date published:
12:47 pm, December 13th, 2016 - 29 comments
Categories: housing -
Tags: auckland, cusp of something special, housing, housing affordability, housing bubble
Is this the “cusp of something special” that Key was talking about?
Auckland housing market change confirmed
A change in Auckland’s residential property market has now been confirmed by three separate organisations this month.
Yesterday, the Real Estate Institute said Auckland house prices had fallen 4 per cent in the last month and sales volumes were down 5 per cent year on year.
Barfoot & Thompson said this month that the Auckland market had “turned” and there were signs of price rises slowing. The QV House Price Index, also out this month, showed Auckland’s 3.7 per cent quarterly value rise the slowest since January last year.
REINZ explained Auckland changes yesterday.
“Compared to November 2015, sales fell 5 per cent and on a seasonally adjusted basis the number of sales in the Auckland region fell 3 per cent compared to October.
“Compared to November 2015 the median price rose $86,944 (+11 per cent), although it fell by $16,056 (-2 per cent) compared to October 2016. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Auckland’s median price fell 4 per cent compared to October,” REINZ said.
Bryan Thomson, REINZ spokesman, said the underlying trend was still for prices to rise.
…
If the bubble bursts its good news for first home buyers, bad news for the over-extended (and the government).
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Akl houses up $87k in the last year on average is hardly good news…much much more evidence is needed of a turning point than this. Prices need to DROP 30%
IS the market going down? Not sure about that, one of my customers just sold her house for 1.2 mil. IS it harder to get financing yes, especially for Kiwis as another friend who is trying to sell her house told me. However this same friend has gotten a ‘cash’ offer from overseas buyers if she were to drop her price by a few grands.
Conclusion, no the market is not going down, Kiwis have however stopped buying in AKL. Houses are now being sold as development sites for future Unit / Aparment living, and are still passing hands every few month while standing empty in the meant time.
Not just kiwis. Despite the rhetoric of this Government that Chinese buyers were never a problem, anecdotally they are turning up to fewer auctions and Open Homes. I have a friend with links to Barfoots and they (Barfoots) seem to be oblivious to kiwis turning their backs on the rort that has become auctioning. watch for more “offers over $xxx” type advertising as buyers turn off auctions and sellers resist the rort.
Barfoots extoll the value of their “networks” but charge people $2-5 grand for advertising. Why, if you have such great networks? Agents get a percentage of the advertising paid (apparently).
There will always be someone from overseas richer than us to buy that overpriced house. We simply can not compete with the multitude of millionaires and investors.
Bernard Hickey tweeted this morning:
In the discussion that followed, Hickey pointed out it was all bad news for renters, even though house prices were rising faster than rents:
‘….bad news for the over-extended…”
Cue, bleating and whining from those greedy bastards who ‘invested’ in an obviously overheated Auckland housing market with minimal deposits and low interest rates in order to make their fortunes.
How many of these ‘investors’ calculated very carefully how much the taxpayer would contribute towards their mortgage repayments and borrowed accordingly?
Cue, an increase in the Accommodation Supplement for Auckland as a government response to prevent a worsening of the housing crisis (that the government says doesn’t exist.).
My plan would be to ditch the Accommodation Supplement and let the much vaunted ‘market’ sort it out. Sure there would be casualties, but bring in restrictions on sales to non citizens and eventually the situation will resolve, and things will return to whatever is considered normal for Auckland.
In the meantime…there are other cities and towns in New Zealand where folk live and work quite happily…and there’s always room for more…;-)
It’s not as if there hasn’t been plenty of warning from the Vancouver, Hong Kong, Sydney, and Melbourne markets. We need a long plateau of pricing in Auckland, and it looks like it’s here.
The simple political reminder is this however:
Housing is the only issue the Opposition has made any inroads against this government at all, after 8.5 years.
If the Government and Reserve Bank’s changes continue to gently cool Auckland’s housing market, out the door goes the main reason for voters to change the government in 2017.
For the plateau to be effective it needs to last decades. I have lived in Auckland for 50 years and some suburbs (central auckland) and have only ever plateaued for 1 or 2 years before going up again.
More likely to see any sustained plateau of prices on the mid and periphery.
The CBD will effectively expand once the City Rail Link is built, where upon completion for example getting to and from New Lynn – previously definitely in the mid-peripheral west – travel time into town for work or leisure goes from 45 minutes to 22.
From Otahuhu and Onehunga on one side, to New Lynn on the other, transport infrastructure will be an underpinning of real estate value.
Also, there is no sign of immigration slowing or total population slowing within the next decade.
The price plateau in Auckland will therefore inevitably be spatially uneven, and for who knows how long. I can recall the recessions of the late 1970s, late 1980s, and late 1990s all hitting the west and south far more than the central suburbs. But for many medium-scale landlords and speculators, the mid-periphery $$ changes are where the yield is to be made.
Remind me how the rail loop makes new lynn to city faster than today?
Just to give the New Lynn example which I know something about; currently the line goes over to Newmarket. The train then stops there for a full four minutes or more, where the driver gets out at one end, walks to the other end of the train, re-starts it, and sets off again.
At most peak times AM and PM, there is a major wait as the train gets to outside the back of the Vector Arena, because there simply are too many trains trying to get into platforms, or out.
Both of those cost the traveller between 8 and 12 minutes, often more at peak.
Whereas City Rail Link from New Lynn goes to the Mt Eden station, turns left and slides in a tunnel straight underneath the motorway valley and K’Road ridge, right outside the Auckland Council building on Albert Street, and then further straight into Britomart.
The time savings from New Lynn to town are gained by:
– shorter distance
– no Newmarket stop
– no constraints around Britomart
– more trains operating across the whole network, going at a faster speed than currently
TransportBlog does this in more detail, and there is piles of stuff about it on the http://www.at.govt.nz site as well.
Thanks Ad, I couldn’t get my head round how it saved time.
It is also comparing the travel time to the new Aotea station which is closer to most people’s final destination than Britomart so some walking time is saved.
It’s not as if there hasn’t been plenty of warning from the Vancouver, Hong Kong, Sydney, and Melbourne markets.
Huh? What warning would that be?
In the last year prices are:
Up 20.5% in Vancouver (and up 49.7% in the last 5 years).
http://www.rebgv.org/home-price-index?region=all&type=all&date=2016-11-01
Up 13.1% in Sydney and 11.3% in Melb
http://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices.html
Up 2.9% in Hong Kong (having rebounded sharply from a dip earlier in 2016)
http://www1.centadata.com/cci/cci_e.htm
It’s the growing vulnerability that the warnings are pointing to, and they have been doing so consistently throughout 2016:
Vancouver:
http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/10/11/vancouver-house-price-plunge_n_12440200.html
Melbourne:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/property/sydney-melbourne-house-prices-to-flatline-in-2017-says-nab-20160715-gq6c3i.html
Hong Kong:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-30/hong-kong-property-seen-enduring-deep-slump-before-curbs-eased:
https://www.ft.com/content/af887232-4820-11e6-8d68-72e9211e86ab
Sydney:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-17/property-market-value-to-drop/7938934
http://www.domain.com.au/news/median-house-prices-forecast-to-fall-across-most-capital-cities-over-next-three-years-bis-shrapnel-report-20160708-gq1c99/
I wondered why John Key came out with “cusp of something special” when he did. It seemed to come out of the blue and then a few months later British PM David Cameron came out with almost exactly the same line. Then I realised it was basically just some sort of spin that the two PM’s PR company came up with.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/election-2015-cameron-delivers-brink-something-special-speech-tories-win-majority-1500380
By accident or design, John Key seems to have been the blue print for both Cameron or Trump, both who have successfully used the “brighter future” line in their election campaigns. Perhaps they or their PR people noted how successful it had been here.
The general trend matters which is still up, however if liquidity dries up, only then you will get a suitable drop in prices.
The “something special” probably refers to new facilities that allow people to park their cars either overnight or during the day and have access to their own kitchen/bathroom for a small fee.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/better-business/87297702/high-tech-ablution-block-stops-freeloading-by-freedom-campers
Give it a few months, then we’ll see.
Like anything motivated by greed, profit taking may kick in and we’re back to normal.
Profit taking means more sellers, which means lower prices.
Prices drop because of profit takers which brings in bargain hunters and demand goes up again, then profit takers, just like shares.
Long term trends not a brief snap shot.
You said “profit taking may kick in then we’re back to normal”. By back to normal, do you mean lower prices? Because you left no room for the long term in your original comment.
What is “normal” for Auckland?
Just 10% increase each and every year?
Good question. Perhaps you should ask keith.
So the governments policies to take the heat out of the Auckland property market are working and you’re criticising? First you moan that prices are rising, now you moan they aren’t?
Looks to me like Keith’s saying,
“Long term trends not a brief snapshot”.
I’m puzzled that you missed that, it’s just there, above your short-sighted comment, wellfedweta. Keith even goes on to detail the process that requires that intelligent observers of the market look at when judging the situation. You can learn a lot from Keith.
Read my reply.
The 8 pressing issues an entitled rich Aucklander thinks we should worry about.
Shelley Bridgeman is symptomatic of the selfish neo-liberal mid set.
Me.
Me.
Me.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle/news/article.cfm?c_id=6&objectid=11766505
Adam Curtis’s documentary explains how this mindset came to be.
Short term variations in house price can be for a lot of different reasons, but the longer term picture hasn’t changed in the slightest. Demand-for still far exceeds supply-of residential property in Auckland and there’s nothing on offer from either major political party to suggest that imbalance is going to change any time soon.