The Genesis share float – or is that share sink?

Written By: - Date published: 10:03 am, March 14th, 2014 - 23 comments
Categories: bill english, debt / deficit, national, Privatisation, same old national - Tags:

The details of the share float have now been announced.  According to stuff:

The Government has poured sugar on its offer of shares in Genesis Energy, pricing the company in a range below analyst valuations last month and offering a bonus share for every 15 held for just a year.

Details of the initial public offer were announced today by Finance Minister Bill English, revealing an offer price of $1.35-$1.65 a share, valuing Genesis at $1.35 billion to $1.65 billion.

The final price will be set on March 28 and investors will be able to buy shares from March 29 to April 11. The company is due to list on the NZX and the ASX on April 17.

At the offer price range, Genesis shares are expected to have a gross dividend yield of 13.5 to 16.5 per cent.

The offer terms value Genesis potentially well below the range expected by analysts from UBS and First NZ Capital. UBS had valued Genesis at $1.6b-$1.9b, while First NZ put its range at $1.4b-$1.8b.

The bonus share offer terms are sweeter than those for Mighty River Power, the first of the state-owned power companies to float last May.

Investors in Mighty River had to hold their stock for two years before receiving the bonus of one share for every 25. The maximum bonus will be capped at 2000 shares per investor.

While the Government sold down 49 per cent of Mighty River and Meridian Energy in the previous offers, it may sell as little as 30 per cent of Genesis, depending on the level of demand.

The amount of shares it will sell will be decided on March 26.

I posted about this earlier.  The yield previously was anticipated to be 9% but is now anticipated to be around 15%.  The anticipated value of the company now has a mid point of $1.5 billion compared to previous estimates of up to $2 billion.  If only 30% of the shares are sold this will result in $500 million being paid.  With a one for 15 loyalty share offer the sale proceeds could be $467 million less cost of sale.  The loyalty share offer is much more generous than the one in 25 share bonus offered during the Meridian float.  Profits will have to increase from $114 million last year to well over $200 million for the yield figure to be reached.  And you have to wonder why you would sell a share returning 15% to pay down debt where you are paying interest at 5% or so.

Bill English was on Morning Report this morning.  He was almost apologetic that Mighty River Power shareholders have done so badly and hinted that the generosity shown in this float somehow made up for things.  The Government is making sure that the share float is a success for the corporates and rich individuals who are buying shares.  Funny that but I thought they should be looking after the people of New Zealand instead.

Meanwhile gross Crown debt is $83 billion.  The share floats have done no more than stopped debt running slightly higher while at the same time divested New Zealand of income earning assets and enriched the already wealthy and the merchant bankers engaged to complete the sale.

And they say that National has the skills to handle the economy?

23 comments on “The Genesis share float – or is that share sink?”

  1. Enough is Enough 1

    Don’t waste time trying to argue the economics of this. You will you confuse your poor brain because it makes no sense.

    The intention was always to reward those people that backed them by providing funding over the past decade. Those wealthy backers have now got what they demanded and will own 48.5% of our power stations.

    It is theft and can be explained as simply as that.

  2. shorts 2

    “it means that during the election campaign…whenever the Key government tries to scare us about the prospect of a Labour/Greens cabal running the economy, or with Russel Norman being a heartbeat away from the Finance portfolio or whatever else the Crosby/Textor crew come up with to try and stampede voters into the arms of the centre-right, such tactics can be rebutted with three simple words: “Genesis share float.” At a stroke, this should vaporise any claims that National is a better, more responsible manager of the economy, and a better steward of public assets.”

    http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2014/03/14/gordon-campbell-on-the-genesis-share-float-debacle/

    every day we get another depressing reminder of what life outside of planet key is like

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Sorry your strategy won’t work because people don’t see any truly alternative and viable vision for the NZ economy being presented to them.

      • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 2.1.1

        @ CV

        I would have thought that the ‘people’ you refer to (I assume you are referring to the ones that say they intend to vote National in the polls) believe the false claims being repeated throughout the mainstream media sources ‘that National is a better, more responsible manager of the economy, and a better steward of public assets’.

        I would have therefore thought that Shorts suggestion was a fairly good one for counteracting these false claims.

        I am of the understanding that Labour ran the country in a more fiscally responsible manner when they were last in power – one that Key spoke loudly against when he was in opposition. where he criticised them for not spending more – Labour governed the country in a manner that led to more raises in the lowest incomes and invested in a manner that led to more jobs and opportunities. This place was a better, far more hopeful place to live in under Labour.

        Perhaps your comment was a request from Labour and Greens to speak more loudly to the public on what they intend to do? – this still doesn’t discount there being a lot of merit in Shorts suggestion.

      • David H 2.1.2

        and what if the dairy market goes south?

  3. Clemgeopin 3

    It is a shame that many people STILL support this evil and incompetent stupid government believing their spin, lies and BS hook line and sinker!

    • Enough is Enough 3.1

      It is a myth that people support this government or that is is popular.

      Don’t believe the polls, there is nothing at all accurate about them and they are paid for by entities that want the hard right government.

      I have no doubt that if everyone votes this yeat National will lose by a landslide. There is a real possibilty that the record set by English in 2002 will be beaten this time around.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    And they say that National has the skills to handle the economy?

    I think E is E has it quite right. This isn’t about running the economy badly or well, this is about crony capitalism, and gifting strategic NZ infrastructure into foreign hands. It’s also the absolute opposite of what the old school conservative base of National wants to see done.

    Further, because Labour 5 kept the SOE structure for these generators, and beyond that insisted that they become very profitable (i.e. extracting large sums of money from ordinary communities), Labour painted a big privatisation bullseye on their foreheads.

    All National is doing is pulling the trigger.

    • shorts 4.1

      good point – and still much of the opposition parties use the revenue we could be earning from these profitable SOE’s as a justification for retaining ownership – never do they talk about offering a service back to the owners at the cheapest sustainable cost

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        Opposition parties who posit that it is they (and not National) who can run corporate style capitalism the best have totally lost sight that we are in the last 20-30 years of fossil fueled, relatively stable climate, global civilisation which has been taken over by the billionaire class.

        It’s like arguing who can administer the bridge on the Titanic better as the compartments fill with water.

    • Lanthanide 4.2

      “Labour painted a big privatisation bullseye on their foreheads.”

      Yep. My BF pointed out (as I’ve posted here before), what Labour should have done is moved the power generators into the ownership of the Cullen fund. That way the dividend stream would go right into their pockets, it would allow the government to have more of an arms-length appearance in terms of “taxation-by-stealth”, guaranteed a continuing funding stream for the fund and made the political argument to sell them much more difficult.

  5. Steve Withers 5

    I’ve never expected National to look after the people of NZ. They are, after all, the “Multi-National 1% Party (NZ)”.

    This is easily seen by simply looking at what they DO….and who benefits.

    It certainly isn’t the people of NZ.

  6. thatguynz 6

    National absolutely have skills in running the economy MS – we all just incorrectly assume that they are running the economy for us, the people.

    Lets take their economic approach to its logical conclusion. What happens when we can no longer afford to service the debt on our governmental exposure? What will the IMF/WB/BiS be pushing for? Further asset sales? Greater involvement in NZ policy? Austerity? There is plenty of precedent for what comes next. The entire global economy is based on debt and the control that the ownership of that debt imbues them with.

  7. Skinny 7

    I am now of the belief we start talking about buying our assets back, less the ticket clipping. This was always going to be a failed ideological driven move.

    Reading this snake oil shows slippery at his best.

    http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4582922/John-Key-reveals-plan-for-asset-sales

  8. captain hook 8

    this is called paying off your mates with a parcel of dodgy shares so that you can take windfall earnings when the supply spikes.
    There is no market.
    Just an artificial creation by the tories to delude themselves and others into believeing that nothing is something.
    straight out of the milton friedman, ronald reagan,george bush playbook for ripping off the taxpayer in the name of de-regulation.
    what a crock of shit yet we still fall for it.
    When is someone going to do a proper analysis and kill this thing once and for all.

  9. Pete 9

    I’ve decided to create an image macro every day until the election. This will obviously be a hit and miss kind of thing (people don’t always get the references). Here’s today’s.

    Share and enjoy.

  10. Ad 10

    Personally it would be great if the state gave more oportunities to invest New Zealanders’ savings with them, but not for monopoly and lazy and conservative assets like generators, or sad returns like Treasury bonds.

    Whereas if NZSuper could propose something – for example an invitation to get directly into these alternative power generator companies in the US, or one of the Crown Research entity spinoffs – I am sure New Zealanders who could would be pretty enthuiastic.

    • PapaMike 10.1

      I would expect like all of the previous partial sales that all the Kiwisaver Accounts have substantial investments in these companies.
      Their expected return is about 7.5%, very much larger than bank term deposits of 4%
      If people do not like this they should tell their Kiwisaver Investment Managers, and see what they say.
      It was said yesterday that the NZ (hic) Banks are sitting on $150 billion of term deposits so there is plenty of investment money available.

      • Ad 10.1.1

        Yes of course on the Kiwisaver thing, but it would be good to identify where the state is heading and invest alongside it as well.

  11. Tracey 11

    this is odd. english said, as did key, that in good conditions these companies would reach higher sale value. yet this is both economic “good times” and a “rockstar economy” yet we havent got good prices per forecasts. stranfe indeed

    • Draco T Bastard 11.1

      It was never about getting a good price, it was always about dis-empowering the people of NZ by taking their assets and wealth away from them. This is how the rich are reinstating feudalism.

  12. Midas 12

    So to get the full cap of 2,000 bonus shares you’d need to buy 30,000 initially which at the top of the price range ($1.65) would require an initial investment of $49,500. Yay for the mums and dads of New Zealand who can write out a cheque for $49,500 just like that.

    Not, of course, that this was ever really about Kiwi mums and dads.

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    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Democracy – I Don’t Think So
    So, those who “know best” have again done their worst. While constantly claiming to be the guardians of democracy and the constitution, and respecters of the 2016 referendum result, diehard Remainers (who have never brought themselves to believe that their advice could have been rejected) have striven might and main ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • Government says it will now build just one really nice home
    Following publication of this article, the Ministry has requested it to be noted that this supplied image is not necessarily representative of what the final house will look like, and it “probably won’t be that nice.” As part of today’s long-anticipated reset of the Government’s flagship KiwiBuild policy, Housing Minister ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Imperialism and your cup of coffee
    Over the next week or two we will be running three synopses of parts of the opening chapter of John Smith’s Imperialism in the 21st Century (New York, Monthly Review Press, 2016).  The synopsis and commentary below is written by Phil Duncan. Marx began Capital not with a sweeping historical ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Still juking the stats
    The State Services Commission and Ombudsman have released another batch of OIA statistics, covering the last six months. Request volumes are up, and the core public service is generally handling them within the legal timeframe, though this may be because they've learned to extend rather than just ignore things. And ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago

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