The Genesis share float – or is that share sink?

Written By: - Date published: 10:03 am, March 14th, 2014 - 23 comments
Categories: bill english, debt / deficit, national, Privatisation, same old national - Tags:

The details of the share float have now been announced.  According to stuff:

The Government has poured sugar on its offer of shares in Genesis Energy, pricing the company in a range below analyst valuations last month and offering a bonus share for every 15 held for just a year.

Details of the initial public offer were announced today by Finance Minister Bill English, revealing an offer price of $1.35-$1.65 a share, valuing Genesis at $1.35 billion to $1.65 billion.

The final price will be set on March 28 and investors will be able to buy shares from March 29 to April 11. The company is due to list on the NZX and the ASX on April 17.

At the offer price range, Genesis shares are expected to have a gross dividend yield of 13.5 to 16.5 per cent.

The offer terms value Genesis potentially well below the range expected by analysts from UBS and First NZ Capital. UBS had valued Genesis at $1.6b-$1.9b, while First NZ put its range at $1.4b-$1.8b.

The bonus share offer terms are sweeter than those for Mighty River Power, the first of the state-owned power companies to float last May.

Investors in Mighty River had to hold their stock for two years before receiving the bonus of one share for every 25. The maximum bonus will be capped at 2000 shares per investor.

While the Government sold down 49 per cent of Mighty River and Meridian Energy in the previous offers, it may sell as little as 30 per cent of Genesis, depending on the level of demand.

The amount of shares it will sell will be decided on March 26.

I posted about this earlier.  The yield previously was anticipated to be 9% but is now anticipated to be around 15%.  The anticipated value of the company now has a mid point of $1.5 billion compared to previous estimates of up to $2 billion.  If only 30% of the shares are sold this will result in $500 million being paid.  With a one for 15 loyalty share offer the sale proceeds could be $467 million less cost of sale.  The loyalty share offer is much more generous than the one in 25 share bonus offered during the Meridian float.  Profits will have to increase from $114 million last year to well over $200 million for the yield figure to be reached.  And you have to wonder why you would sell a share returning 15% to pay down debt where you are paying interest at 5% or so.

Bill English was on Morning Report this morning.  He was almost apologetic that Mighty River Power shareholders have done so badly and hinted that the generosity shown in this float somehow made up for things.  The Government is making sure that the share float is a success for the corporates and rich individuals who are buying shares.  Funny that but I thought they should be looking after the people of New Zealand instead.

Meanwhile gross Crown debt is $83 billion.  The share floats have done no more than stopped debt running slightly higher while at the same time divested New Zealand of income earning assets and enriched the already wealthy and the merchant bankers engaged to complete the sale.

And they say that National has the skills to handle the economy?

23 comments on “The Genesis share float – or is that share sink?”

  1. Enough is Enough 1

    Don’t waste time trying to argue the economics of this. You will you confuse your poor brain because it makes no sense.

    The intention was always to reward those people that backed them by providing funding over the past decade. Those wealthy backers have now got what they demanded and will own 48.5% of our power stations.

    It is theft and can be explained as simply as that.

  2. shorts 2

    “it means that during the election campaign…whenever the Key government tries to scare us about the prospect of a Labour/Greens cabal running the economy, or with Russel Norman being a heartbeat away from the Finance portfolio or whatever else the Crosby/Textor crew come up with to try and stampede voters into the arms of the centre-right, such tactics can be rebutted with three simple words: “Genesis share float.” At a stroke, this should vaporise any claims that National is a better, more responsible manager of the economy, and a better steward of public assets.”

    http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2014/03/14/gordon-campbell-on-the-genesis-share-float-debacle/

    every day we get another depressing reminder of what life outside of planet key is like

    • Colonial Viper 2.1

      Sorry your strategy won’t work because people don’t see any truly alternative and viable vision for the NZ economy being presented to them.

      • blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 2.1.1

        @ CV

        I would have thought that the ‘people’ you refer to (I assume you are referring to the ones that say they intend to vote National in the polls) believe the false claims being repeated throughout the mainstream media sources ‘that National is a better, more responsible manager of the economy, and a better steward of public assets’.

        I would have therefore thought that Shorts suggestion was a fairly good one for counteracting these false claims.

        I am of the understanding that Labour ran the country in a more fiscally responsible manner when they were last in power – one that Key spoke loudly against when he was in opposition. where he criticised them for not spending more – Labour governed the country in a manner that led to more raises in the lowest incomes and invested in a manner that led to more jobs and opportunities. This place was a better, far more hopeful place to live in under Labour.

        Perhaps your comment was a request from Labour and Greens to speak more loudly to the public on what they intend to do? – this still doesn’t discount there being a lot of merit in Shorts suggestion.

      • David H 2.1.2

        and what if the dairy market goes south?

  3. Clemgeopin 3

    It is a shame that many people STILL support this evil and incompetent stupid government believing their spin, lies and BS hook line and sinker!

    • Enough is Enough 3.1

      It is a myth that people support this government or that is is popular.

      Don’t believe the polls, there is nothing at all accurate about them and they are paid for by entities that want the hard right government.

      I have no doubt that if everyone votes this yeat National will lose by a landslide. There is a real possibilty that the record set by English in 2002 will be beaten this time around.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    And they say that National has the skills to handle the economy?

    I think E is E has it quite right. This isn’t about running the economy badly or well, this is about crony capitalism, and gifting strategic NZ infrastructure into foreign hands. It’s also the absolute opposite of what the old school conservative base of National wants to see done.

    Further, because Labour 5 kept the SOE structure for these generators, and beyond that insisted that they become very profitable (i.e. extracting large sums of money from ordinary communities), Labour painted a big privatisation bullseye on their foreheads.

    All National is doing is pulling the trigger.

    • shorts 4.1

      good point – and still much of the opposition parties use the revenue we could be earning from these profitable SOE’s as a justification for retaining ownership – never do they talk about offering a service back to the owners at the cheapest sustainable cost

      • Colonial Viper 4.1.1

        Opposition parties who posit that it is they (and not National) who can run corporate style capitalism the best have totally lost sight that we are in the last 20-30 years of fossil fueled, relatively stable climate, global civilisation which has been taken over by the billionaire class.

        It’s like arguing who can administer the bridge on the Titanic better as the compartments fill with water.

    • Lanthanide 4.2

      “Labour painted a big privatisation bullseye on their foreheads.”

      Yep. My BF pointed out (as I’ve posted here before), what Labour should have done is moved the power generators into the ownership of the Cullen fund. That way the dividend stream would go right into their pockets, it would allow the government to have more of an arms-length appearance in terms of “taxation-by-stealth”, guaranteed a continuing funding stream for the fund and made the political argument to sell them much more difficult.

  5. Steve Withers 5

    I’ve never expected National to look after the people of NZ. They are, after all, the “Multi-National 1% Party (NZ)”.

    This is easily seen by simply looking at what they DO….and who benefits.

    It certainly isn’t the people of NZ.

  6. thatguynz 6

    National absolutely have skills in running the economy MS – we all just incorrectly assume that they are running the economy for us, the people.

    Lets take their economic approach to its logical conclusion. What happens when we can no longer afford to service the debt on our governmental exposure? What will the IMF/WB/BiS be pushing for? Further asset sales? Greater involvement in NZ policy? Austerity? There is plenty of precedent for what comes next. The entire global economy is based on debt and the control that the ownership of that debt imbues them with.

  7. Skinny 7

    I am now of the belief we start talking about buying our assets back, less the ticket clipping. This was always going to be a failed ideological driven move.

    Reading this snake oil shows slippery at his best.

    http://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/4582922/John-Key-reveals-plan-for-asset-sales

  8. captain hook 8

    this is called paying off your mates with a parcel of dodgy shares so that you can take windfall earnings when the supply spikes.
    There is no market.
    Just an artificial creation by the tories to delude themselves and others into believeing that nothing is something.
    straight out of the milton friedman, ronald reagan,george bush playbook for ripping off the taxpayer in the name of de-regulation.
    what a crock of shit yet we still fall for it.
    When is someone going to do a proper analysis and kill this thing once and for all.

  9. Pete 9

    I’ve decided to create an image macro every day until the election. This will obviously be a hit and miss kind of thing (people don’t always get the references). Here’s today’s.

    Share and enjoy.

  10. Ad 10

    Personally it would be great if the state gave more oportunities to invest New Zealanders’ savings with them, but not for monopoly and lazy and conservative assets like generators, or sad returns like Treasury bonds.

    Whereas if NZSuper could propose something – for example an invitation to get directly into these alternative power generator companies in the US, or one of the Crown Research entity spinoffs – I am sure New Zealanders who could would be pretty enthuiastic.

    • PapaMike 10.1

      I would expect like all of the previous partial sales that all the Kiwisaver Accounts have substantial investments in these companies.
      Their expected return is about 7.5%, very much larger than bank term deposits of 4%
      If people do not like this they should tell their Kiwisaver Investment Managers, and see what they say.
      It was said yesterday that the NZ (hic) Banks are sitting on $150 billion of term deposits so there is plenty of investment money available.

      • Ad 10.1.1

        Yes of course on the Kiwisaver thing, but it would be good to identify where the state is heading and invest alongside it as well.

  11. Tracey 11

    this is odd. english said, as did key, that in good conditions these companies would reach higher sale value. yet this is both economic “good times” and a “rockstar economy” yet we havent got good prices per forecasts. stranfe indeed

    • Draco T Bastard 11.1

      It was never about getting a good price, it was always about dis-empowering the people of NZ by taking their assets and wealth away from them. This is how the rich are reinstating feudalism.

  12. Midas 12

    So to get the full cap of 2,000 bonus shares you’d need to buy 30,000 initially which at the top of the price range ($1.65) would require an initial investment of $49,500. Yay for the mums and dads of New Zealand who can write out a cheque for $49,500 just like that.

    Not, of course, that this was ever really about Kiwi mums and dads.

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     Two-Faced? Labour insiders' commitment to the neoliberal status quo puts them at odds with their party’s membership; its trade union affiliates; and a majority of Labour voters, but this only serves to strengthen the perception they have of themselves as a special elite. Among the lesser breeds, they’ll talk up a ...
    1 week ago
  • Ten reasons the Tories do NOT want an election
    There has been a lot of talk about Boris Johnson wanting an election, and he has blustered with great gusto about 'chicken' Jeremy Corbyn refusing one, but I think there are many reasons why he is secretly glad he has been refused the opportunity:The Tories are an utter rabble,tearing themselves ...
    1 week ago
  • Prorogation Illegal, rule Scottish judges
    Scottish appeal court judges have declared that Boris Johnson’s decision to suspend parliament in the run-up to the October Brexit deadline is unlawful. The three judges, chaired by Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, overturned an earlier ruling that the courts did not have the powers to interfere in the prime ...
    1 week ago
  • Let me explain what I meant by Everyday New Zealanders
    By Simon Bridges. The following is a press release from the office of Simon Bridges, leader of The National Party. Key ora, New Zealand. Happy Maori Language Week. Look, I’m writing to you today because I want to clear something up. There’s been a lot of kerfuffle around some things ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Yes, the SIS is subject to the Public Records Act
    I understand there's some stuff going round about how the SIS "was removed from the list of public offices covered by the Public Records Act in 2017". The context of course being their records derived from US torture, which will be disposed of or sealed. The good news is that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • An evidence-based discussion of the Canadian fluoride/IQ study
    Dr. Christopher Labos and Jonathan Jarry discuss the recent Canadian fluoride/IQ research. They provide an expert analysis of the paper and its problems. Click on image to go to podcast. The critical debate about the recent ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Australia in denial
    Australia is burning down again, and meanwhile its natural disaster minister is denying climate change:Australia’s minister responsible for drought and natural disasters, David Littleproud, has said that he doesn’t “know if climate change is manmade”. Clarifying earlier comments that the question is “irrelevant” when considering the Coalition government’s response to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Philippines activist speaking on the Duterte tyranny
    Auckland Philippines Solidarity is excited to host Professor Judy Taguiwalo for a speaking tour of NZ in September. She is a well-known activist in the Philippines and was a political prisoner under the Marcos dictatorship. Professor Taguiwalo briefly served as a Cabinet member under President Duterte but was forced from ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Disgust
    I have no special insights to offer on the Labour sexual assault coverup. All I have is disgust. Disgust that an organisation could fail its people so badly. Disgust that they punished the victims rather than the perpetrator. Disgust that its party hacks are apparently blaming the victims for demanding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Speak Up for Women calls out Greens’ censorship
    This open letter to the Green Party was penned after an opinion piece by Jill Abigail, a feminist and founding member of the party, was censored by the Greens’ leadership. (Redline has reprinted her article here).The intolerance of the Green Party leaders and their acceptance of the misogyny of gender ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Member’s Day: End of Life Choice, part 3
    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
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    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    2 weeks ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    2 weeks ago

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