The report of our death has been grossly exaggerated

Written By: - Date published: 12:34 pm, August 31st, 2023 - 44 comments
Categories: election 2023, greens, labour, maori party, polls - Tags: ,

A bit of fluttering on twitter recently as an apparently leaked Labour internal poll shows good news for the left. The figures here from twitter account 120Aotearoa.

That’s a National/Act/NZ First government, assuming that Winston Peters isn’t lying when he says NZ First have categorically ruled out a coalition or confidence and supply agreement with Labour. Either NZF getting 5% = a right wing government, or NZF getting 5% means a liar in a centrist, climate fudging, poverty tinkering government, just not as bad as the other lot.

How is that good news for the left? I ran the figures through the MMP seat allocation calculator. Moving just 1.2% of NZF’s party vote to Labour means the left gets to form government. This is what it looks like,

That’s a Labour/Greens/Te Pāti Māori government. Bonus is that NZF stay out of parliament.

I don’t have a political science background so take all this with a grain of salt. I do however understand a lot about fighting from the underdog position and central in that is that you just don’t give up when things appear bad. You also understand the power of framing and narrative.

My view on polls is that they’re basically a game that the MSM and political parties play in order to influence elections. They piss me off and I wish we would ban them, but I expect that would create another set of problems as parties continued with their internal polling which would inevitably be leaked.

But the way that polls get reported doesn’t serve us or democracy well. MSM headlines still frequently report on Labour or National as if MMP doesn’t exist. And predicting election results from a single poll is a nonsense.

The polls this year appear to be a bit chaotic, but remember, they’re a snapshot of a particular segment of the population over a week or two. They’re not election results.

We can follow the trend instead. Here’s the wikipedia entry on Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election, but again, there are technical issues here that aren’t particularly well understood by the general public (myself included).

That big downward trend in the red line is the readjustment from the unusually high vote in the first year of the pandemic that gave Labour an outright majority (the first time under MMP).

Here is the polling trend from the 2017 election when everyone was sure Labour were going to lose. They went on to form government.

The point here isn’t to hope for another Jacinda Ardern. It’s that we never know what can happen and we should be out there giving the left the best chance we can.

The election isn’t over, by any means. It’s tight and as James Shaw is saying repeatedly, it may come down to a few thousand votes. The stories we tell about the election and polling affect the end result.

Now is not the time to give up, now is the time to work harder at winning.

It’s also not the time to be telling people that the left has lost the election. *Looks hard at the father of Waitakere man who apparently wants the left to lose the election* No, I’m not linking to that utter fucking insanity.

Don’t share defeatist bollocks. It tells swing, undecided and habitual non-voters to not bother voting left.

More good news in that leaked poll is that the Greens’ increased vote appears to be holding, and is higher than ACT. In this poll that happened with both Labour and Green increases, which is exactly what we want. More left wing voters shifting from Labour to Green, and more centre and swing voters coming to Labour. In 2020 the Greens got 7.9% of the vote and 10 MPs. If they get 12% on election day, that’s 15 Green MPs. No reason why it can’t be more.

What I’m doing here is presenting a narrative of how we can win. This is more important than attachment to our predictions. I don’t know who will win the election, but I know that it’s still possible for that to be the left. It’s a very tight election, no-one know who will win, and I think we should be looking at the motivations of people making predictions and asking what purpose they serve.

In addition to the prominent issues like the cost of living crisis, people want to vote for competency, the winning team. Talking about how the centre left can govern well despite the limitations matters. Talking about what a good result looks like matters. Here’s my preference,


44 comments on “The report of our death has been grossly exaggerated ”

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  1. weka 1
    31 August 2023 at 12:40 pm

    post script. Even if we lose the election, we are much better off with as many MPs as we can get. Oppositions are important part of our democracy, let's make sure we are a strong one if it comes to that.

  2. Roy Cartland 2
    31 August 2023 at 12:46 pm

    Thanks so much Weka! This is the post I've been waiting for!

    Not to mention that young people and Māori, PI and other non-white middlers don't answer polls and will outnumber boomers this year.

    Don't believe the idiotic right wing predictions, theyalways predict the Left's demise and are wrong more often than not. I reckon we've got this.

    • weka 2.1
      31 August 2023 at 12:48 pm

      💚

      great point about those who don't answer polls!

      The right will go hard on the loser narrative. Would be nice if the left didn't shoot itself in the foot likewise.

  3. Patricia Bremner 3
    31 August 2023 at 12:59 pm

    Yes belief is totally important to counter the fear the right engender.

  4. KJT 4
    31 August 2023 at 1:34 pm

    Actually horrifying that the direction of the country, and the policies enacted by our "Rotating Dictatorship", regardless of the individual policies supported by a majority, may hinge on a few thousand votes on the day.

    Yet another indication that we do not, in fact, have a Democracy!

    • weka 4.1
      31 August 2023 at 1:38 pm

      a poor form of democracy for sure.

      So one narrative might go: imagine Greens/Te Pāti Māori getting 20 MPs and Labour getting 41. Then next election the left bloc have 30 MPs and Labour has 31. MMP can be improved and we need the MMP era parties to grow to counter balance the old FPP parties. And Peters out of parliament.

      • Roy Cartland 4.1.1
        31 August 2023 at 2:01 pm

        That's exactly right. Labour needs taking down a peg, given they do nothing fast when they're in, and we're out of time. A LP, GP and TPM alliance would be just the ticket. The minors to demand policy and the old LP to know how to make it happen

        • gsays 4.1.1.1
          31 August 2023 at 5:40 pm

          I'm with you on this.

          It reminds me of the cartoon where someone is warned that the dog might hurt you.

          They ask will it bite me? Then the dog says "Winston wasn't the reason for the lack of progressive policies from Labour." Yes, it is from two elections ago but the point remains.

          It would be good for them to sit on the sidelines or as an equal partner with GP and TPM as they show how to govern, reduce inequality, bring the citizenry with them and demonstrate what it looks like to stand for something.

    • Law 4.2
      2 September 2023 at 9:19 pm

      Actually an indicator that we do …

  5. Roy Cartland 5
    31 August 2023 at 2:03 pm

    How likely is it that LP would side with the Natz to block any serious attempt at radical reform? Serious question.

    Mickey? Ad? Is this where it's at or…?

  6. Psyclingleft.Always 6
    31 August 2023 at 2:04 pm

    Don’t share defeatist bollocks. It tells swing, undecided and habitual non-voters to not bother voting left.

    Absolutely. There have been a few on The Standard just…giving up .

    Waving white flags !. So as to somehow "punish" Labour ?. News for those people…its we..who will suffer under NAct. Those at the lower end. And Kids.

    I reckon…Fight Back. Right through..and beyond !

  7. That_guy 7
    31 August 2023 at 2:16 pm

    I'm not giving up, but I do want to thread a needle: want Labour to get walloped, but also want a centre-left government.

    Appreciate this post.

  8. SPC 8
    31 August 2023 at 2:23 pm

    Green Campaign strategy

    1. Tenants

    Stress the 3% rent increase cap, and use National opposition to it as evidence that National does not really believe that rents will come down if they apply their pro landlord policy (easy removal of tenants and $2B reduction in tax via restoring the mortgage payment as a cost against rent income).

    This because of their high migration policy pushing up demand for housing and their encouragement of building high value property for sale to foreigners over stock for rent or local first home buyers.

    Highlight National's

    a-easy removal of tenants – allow sale after 2 years without any brightline CG test

    b-high trust model for landlord compliance with rental standards

    2. Workers

    Better MW increases and Fair Pay Agreement offers hope of wage increases each year.

    3. Public Transport

    More of it, cheaper and support for e bikes etc.

    4. Housing

    Grants to upgrade etc. More for public housing.

    5. Global Warming Action

    It's to support the value of a Labour-Green government, rather than focus on their failure to act on wealth/progressive taxation.

  9. Tricledrown 9
    31 August 2023 at 2:27 pm

    Nationals tax cuts are ten times more complicated than free prescriptions and no GST on vegetables.Right wing Pundits like Sean Plunkett reckon National's tax cuts are unfair and unworkable only benefitting the very wealthy.The Average family wage $120,000 is not what the average family earn maybe 20% of families earn.near or more than that those averages are skewed by a few high income earners dragging that mystical average well above the median average family income of around $70,000 or less.National have made a major blunder not dragging in the swing voter with a few crumbs off the table.

    • SPC 9.1
      31 August 2023 at 2:39 pm

      Yeah Na.

      You have to exclude singles (students, new workers) and those on super when assessing the average (mean) or median family income.

      https://figure.nz/chart/6o5WkemBDJKlHjP2

      The next issue is the 3 part category of family.

      Sole parent families, one income (two parent) and two income families.

      The median for a worker (40 hour week) is now over $60,000 – which is where the two income family at $120,000 comes from.

      • Tricledrown 9.1.1
        31 August 2023 at 3:38 pm

        SPC the mean average family income is correct not 2 figures just added together. When you look closer to the stats nz numbers per income bracket most NZ families earn much less the median average is still very high unless you take the 3.65% who are earning over $200,000 out of the equation then the median average falls to a median family income of around $70,000 or less. National are only in it for those families earning high I comes .Trying to fool those few swi g voters while leaving the great unwashed with nothing but increased cost's .

        • SPC 9.1.1.1
          31 August 2023 at 3:53 pm

          The median is not the mean – mean is the average.

          Look at the link provided.

          But note those figures are for all households

        • Belladonna 9.1.1.2
          31 August 2023 at 5:41 pm

          That's the benefit of using the 'median' rather than the 'mean' (average) in this kind of analysis – it enables you to automatically discount any particularly high (or particularly low) results – since they don't affect the 'middle' figure. You simply take the total number of ranked results, divide in half, and that result number in your table is your median figure.

          • Roy Cartland 9.1.1.2.1
            2 September 2023 at 6:43 pm

            They may even try to use the mode, or a modal band. That is, the brand with the greatest number of individuals, becoming the average.

            That would girls a vastly lower income that any unrepresentative mean.

    • KJT 9.2
      31 August 2023 at 3:45 pm

      50% by definition ,are below the median.

  10. SPC 10
    31 August 2023 at 2:29 pm

    As for Labour ….

    If only they were to decide to match National's moves on the IETC – expand its value and range. As National did when matching Labour’s WFF tax credit.

    Gathering money from

    1. an online gambling tax
    2. a stamp duty on buying of houses over $2m (remember when John Key's brightline test went from 2 to 5 to 10 years).
    3. a new company tax for highly profitable businesses (oligarchy/monopoly) – such as banks and supermarkets and comms (spark etc) – based on the US model (before Trump they had a progressive rate for companies).
  11. Kat 11
    31 August 2023 at 5:45 pm

    National already believe they have the election in the bag. The opposition campaign war chest is overflowing from corporates, real estate companies, rich lister's, fed farmers to name a few. The writing is on the wall as to who will benefit the most and who and what will wither if National/Act make it across the line in October.

    Anyone with a brain can see that Nationals tax proposals are not just seriously flawed but cynical blatant election bribery, however according to Jessica@6pm.news its "good politics. The mainstream media appears to revel in the prospect of political mayhem.

    The left have to be mobilised……mentally, spiritually and yes…..physically. Votes, or lack of them, are what will decide the election for the left.

    • Anne 11.1
      31 August 2023 at 6:55 pm

      Luxon is copying the Muldoon playbook. Back in 1975 the big issue was superannuation. Labour produced a pay as you go scheme in 1973/74 which was going to take 20 years to come to full fruition. Its value was to provide sustained fiscal certainty well into the future as well as ensuring retirees enjoyed a retirement free of financial hardship.

      National under Muldoon came up with a state sponsored scheme which pandered to the greed of those drawing close to retirement. They voted for him in huge numbers and we have been paying the price ever since.

      Just like Muldoon, who Luxon once claimed to have been the PM he admired the most, his motivation is personal. He wants to be PM for the sake of it and imo not for any true altruistic reasons.

      • Kat 11.1.1
        31 August 2023 at 7:39 pm

        Yes remember well those 'dancing cossacks'…….

      • gsays 11.1.2
        31 August 2023 at 8:23 pm

        It's funny you mention that era of NZ politics.

        There are similarities with where Labour are at in that, the leader (Bill Rowling) following a very popular and charismatic leader (Norm Kirk) is struggling to emerge from their shadow and stamp their mark.

        From Wiki:

        " He was serving as Minister of Finance (1972–1974) when he was appointed Prime Minister following the death of the highly popular Norman Kirk. His Labour Government's effort to retrieve the economy ended with an upset victory by the National Party in November 1975. Rowling continued to lead the Labour Party but lost two more general elections.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Rowling

        • Anne 11.1.2.1
          31 August 2023 at 8:52 pm

          Under MMP he would have won them. Labour actually polled more votes but the FPP system was flawed. Rural electorates whilst they covered more terrain had smaller populations than their urban counterparts.

          Labour really was the under-dog in those days.

          • DS 11.1.2.1.1
            1 September 2023 at 2:38 am

            Under MMP, the winner of 1978 and 1981 would be decided by Social Credit.

            Rural electorates did not have a smaller population. The problem was that Labour's vote was more concentrated. The Maori seats (acting as a pro-National gerrymander) did not help.

        • Kat 11.1.2.2
          31 August 2023 at 8:57 pm

          Ha! Bill was a nice chap, too nice to get down and dirty with that pugnacious bully Muldoon who once said Rowling was a 'shiver waiting for a spine to run up'.

          Hipkins is in a very different league, he is not backward in coming forward, there is no one in the opposition that is anywhere near his level of political nous, which will become clearly evident during the campaign.

          • Anne 11.1.2.2.1
            31 August 2023 at 10:45 pm

            Indeed he was a nice chap. He treated everybody equally… from the Departmental heads to the cleaners. He died of a brain tumour in his late 60s. He was never afforded the respect he deserved largely because of Muldoon's spiteful belittlement of him.

            • Ray 11.1.2.2.1.1
              3 September 2023 at 9:21 am

              He was more than just a nice chap. He kept the neo-liberal faction (Douglas et al) under control. That’s why it was so important for them to replace him with Lange under whom they had free rein.

      • Blazer 11.1.3
        31 August 2023 at 9:11 pm

        I believe Luxon wants to be P.M to get a knighthood,just like his hero….Hatman.

        He doesn't need the ..money.

  12. Mike the Lefty 12
    31 August 2023 at 6:25 pm

    There will be a lot of bus and rail commuters who will be muttering nasty words about National and their plan to scrap most public transport subsidies.

    That's how you pay for tax cuts for the rich and the propertied class.

    National are trying to tell us that they are Robin Hoods, they are actually ROBBING hoods.

  13. Tony Veitch 13
    31 August 2023 at 7:02 pm

    Here's a prediction: the left's greatest asset is Christopher Luxon!

    At some stage during the election he will fuck up, probably during the tele debates – but he'll do it so publicly the voters will turn off from him and the Natz.

    Second greatest asset – the weird collection of misfits that constitute the Act party.

    We'll win, and win well.

    Frankly, we can't afford not to. For NZs sake!

  14. Patricia Bremner 14
    31 August 2023 at 8:53 pm

    I loved when on TV they asked a member of the public about Chris Hipkins winning.
    The young woman said "God I hope so, we love him."

  15. UncookedSelachimorpha 15
    31 August 2023 at 11:48 pm

    I've spent the last couple of days in the top of the South Island and in Wellington.

    ACT billboards are *everywhere*, with snappy slogans that will hook in some voters "End Race Based Division", "End Wasteful Spending" etc. Winston First is also prominent "Let's Take Back Our Country". All deceptive dog-whistling bullshit in my opinion, but will work for some.

    The few Green billboards I have seen all just say "Party Vote Green". Better than nothing, but basically empty of content and no message to hook voters. Why not "…for Free Dental Care" or "…for lower rents" etc?

    Obviously, there is a huge disparity in marketing budgets, but I think the Greens could do more to sell their policies.

    • Psyclingleft.Always 15.1
      1 September 2023 at 7:54 am

      In the Central (and lower?) Rural South, ACT are using "their" donation money with heaps of signs.

      Of course they have ol "glower face" Andrew Hoggard as an ex FedFarm Pres. Big…..presence.

      Apparently he didnt….

      https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/05/14/act-candidate-didnt-disclose-party-membership-during-govt-emissions-talks/

      Anyway….

      This mighty ACT presence might work against the Nats ? …

      Also, IMO most of the Farmers/Orchardist/Rural types around here….hate Labour and the Left in general. Thats a probably given for all of NZ.

      I've always wondered….there must only be a "number" of them…why doesnt the Worker vote….blow them away?

      Fear? Apathy? Other?

      Lets keep Fighting.

  16. Tiger Mountain 16
    1 September 2023 at 6:39 am

    Denial is little substitute for seasoned political analysis. Polls have long been recognised as both measurers (within various parameters) and creators of voter behaviour. So they are reasonably accurate for those that are reached or choose to answer. Those that lie or misrepresent their true intentions I guess only get found out later.

    I too hope for a win for TPM, Green and Labour as narrow as it would likely be, and will have a Green sign shortly, on our corner section. As I move around my community and talk to people I do my bit to encourage people to vote, and vote Green.

    It is not defeatism to point out that the Labour caucus queered the pitch with their inaction on tax. But I guess that has all been said now, so time to move on and try and achieve a TPM, Green, Labour Govt and defeat NActFirst.

  17. Patricia Bremner 17
    1 September 2023 at 10:12 am

    Why do we act as though our current Government has done nothing? 60 billion spent to deal with covid for starters. Is it because we want more in spite of that and won't admit how hard it is to get change accepted? Imagine that used differently.

    Conservative people hate change, and talk about "the natural order of things" when in general that is a class signal.

    This has become a class war.

    Under Key Unions were made unworkable though the Contracts Act and 90 day trials, while banks allowed people to borrow against their homes to become the new landed rich.

    The only Unions to stand firm were those in the Public Service Education and Health. As those Unions were still strong, they won decent rises. The rest are using the new gateways to organise.

    As this Government governs in turbulent times progress has been seemingly slow, as they had to deal with previously hollowed out services and all the calamities along the way.

    National have garnered huge wealth to fight this class war. Parker armed us with knowledge . 85 families own 311 billion of wealth. Now that was a shock. The gap is an abyss.

    So what do we do about that. We talk to people and give reasons why we need to close the abyss and give people hope. Together we are stronger.

    That won't happen with a few comfortable people getting $260 of the pie. It will happen if we share the pie by insisting those who are well off should contribute more ingredients to make more local pies to share.

    Fight Class Greedinlation wherever it is found. Speak up about $311 billion and where it is invested? Ask why a country with that degree of wealthy people doesn't have decent pipes? Who are these wealthy people? Are they Nationals Donor class?

    So why aren't we angry with them?

    How come over time they have been able to ring fence their wealth so they pay 9.4 cents aprox tax? Do they buy that protection? Is that what "keeping the natural order of things" is truly about?

    Come on the Left… aim at the true target here. Labour the Greens and Te Maori Party are up against more wealth than the Government holds, as they bought up our assets in the asset sales. Vote!! your vote is powerful.

    Weka this has been a bit hurried, as we have visitors coming today… but I have been mulling these ideas for a while now. Others may do better.