web analytics

There is something wrong with the latest Herald Digipoll

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, March 21st, 2014 - 98 comments
Categories: Media, newspapers - Tags:

The Herald Digipoll released on Tuesday caused some consternation to the Labour Party. With support dropping below 30% I am sure that more than a few MPs took a deep breath.  But there is something wrong with the figures.

The swing in Auckland was for some strange reason very pronounced.  The Auckland vote for Labour plummeted from 36.6% to 26.7% when the result was compared with the previous Digipoll result in December 2013.  Amongst the rest of the country the result showed a more modest drop from 34% to 31%.  Auckland is traditionally Labour’s strongest area and it seemed strange to me that the fall was so large.

At the same time the Green vote in Auckland almost doubled from 7.3% (which seemed low at the time) to 13.4%.  And New Zealand First crashed from 5.2% to 1.6% even though in the rest of the country it went up from 3.3% to 4.9%.  I appreciate that relying on small samples is always dangerous but it appears that 248 Aucklanders were polled and you would not expect that big a shift in preferences particularly when the rest of the country was fairly stable.

And the really strange thing is that at the same time Aucklanders were polled about Len Brown and the results were published yesterday morning.  And as has been noted by Thomas Lumley the results do not add up.

Even though only 34% of Aucklanders actually voted in the last local body election an impressive 85% of those surveyed claimed to have voted.  And less than one third (31.3%) claimed they had voted for Len even though he enjoyed 46% of the vote.  These are some rather large discrepancies.

David Cunliffe has been quoted as saying that Labour’s internal polling is in the mid 30s.  It looks like this particular poll result was a rogue.

98 comments on “There is something wrong with the latest Herald Digipoll”

  1. swordfish 1

    Mickey, I agree with the broad thrust of your argument – that certain aspects of the Herald Digipoll are a little dodgy – but I’d take issue with one or two of your arguments:

    (1) “Auckland is traditionally Labour’s strongest area.”

    If you’re talking about urban Auckland, then I’d have to profoundly disagree. Auckland is traditionally the most Right-leaning of the main cities.

    In 2005, for instance, Auckland was evenly split between Left and Right, Wellington and Chch tilted fairly strongly to the Left, while Dunedin was strongly-to-overwhelmingly Left. In 2008, both Auckland and Chch swung heavily to the Nats, so that the City of Sails (or should that be Sales ?) was tilting fairly strongly Right, Chch (so often in the past Wellington’s political twin) was now evenly split, leaving the Capital (which recorded unusually weak swings to the Nats) still clearly Left-leaning and wonderful Dunedin (one of the few places in NZ I’ve never been to, but have a great deal of time for) still a bastion of the Left. Chch swung heavily to the Nats once again in 2011, so that Auckland and the garden city are now political twins – both fairly strongly Right-leaning – with Wellington and Dunedin now constituting a second pair of twins – both clearly, but not strongly, Left-leaning.

    (2) “It looks like this particular poll result was a rogue.”

    In terms of some of the particulars that you’ve highlighted ?, yes. In terms of the overall result ?, I’m not so sure. It’s roughly in line with the various polls conducted since late January (all but one have Labour in the 30-31 % range). It’s clear that the Nats have experienced a wee spike in support (with late Jan/early Feb being the crucial period when this occurred).

    The key point for me, however, is that the polling patterns from 2008 and 2011 suggest:
    (1) that this spike in Nat support / trough in Lab support won’t last.
    and
    (2) Poll support for not only National but also the Right bloc as a whole (our good Tory chum, Chris73, got this completely wrong a few days ago) is consistently overstated. You can pretty much lob 5-6 points off Nat support and 3-4 points off Right bloc support.

    • karol 1.1

      I think South and West Auckland are pretty left wing. Central Auckland has become increasingly colonised by the well off, and therefore I would expect it to be increasingly right wing. North Auckland is mostly wealthy, Pakeha and more right wing, although it’s demographic is changing.

      On the digipoll, let’s not forget that in August 2010, just a month or two before the first Auckland supercity election, the digitpoll was seriously inaccurate. It had Brown and Banks neck and neck on 28-29% each.

      The final result was a clear win for Brown with 48.7% of the votes and Banks losing with 35.1% of the votes.

      • swordfish 1.1.1

        Yeah, Karol, but I’m talking about Auckland as a whole – compared to Wellington, Chch and Dunedin as a whole.

        South Auckland certainly is a bastion for the Left – as Red as a Railway Shed. The various seats of West Auckland and Central Auckland are (taken collectively) mildy Left-leaning (‘marginal Left’, if you like), while both the East Auckland and North Shore seats are overwhelmingly Right – I mean, as bloody Blue as a New Tatoo. There are suburbs like Browns Bay and Mellons Bay where they still burn Green supporters as witches. (Think Monty Python’s Holy Grail – “We’ve got a witch, we’ve got a witch !!!”. “How do you know she is a witch ?”. “She’s wearing a Green Party rosette.” (The good burghers of Mellons Bay, screaming in frenzied anger): “Burn Her !!!, Burn Her !!!”.

        • mickysavage 1.1.1.1

          You might be right swordfish. Certainly South Auckland was a stand out performer last election. My calculations were that the Auckland result last time was far better than the national result in that the swing was much smaller and in South Auckland there was a swing back.

          Dunedin and Christchurch both had huge swings to the right, 10%+ increases for National. Will hunt down the figures and post them when I find them.

        • Tracey 1.1.1.2

          LOLOLOLOLOLOL “it’s a fair cop”

        • mickysavage 1.1.1.3

          Found the figures:

          In 2011 the party votes for Labour as a percentage of total votes cast were:

          Dunedin 28.50%
          Christchurch 26.75%
          Wellington 25.45%
          Auckland 29.93%
          Country 27.48%

          • swordfish 1.1.1.3.1

            Danke Schoen, Mickey.

            My detailed figures are at home (and, presently, I’m not) so I’ll get back to you here tonight or tomorrow morning. It’s possible the strength of the Left bloc as a whole in Wellington and Dunedin and its comparative weakness in Auckland has led me to wrongly assume Labour is weaker in the latter. If I have made such a boo-boo then clearly it’s mea culpa time. But I’ll need to check.

            In terms of the swing back to Lab in South Auckland in 2011 – true, but probably largely 2008 NZ Pacific Party supporters. Although (from memory), the Party-Vote in West Auckland remained fairly static, it’s clear that a number of individual suburbs swung back towards the Left in 2011, particularly in Cunliffe’s New Lynn seat. Good to see in an election where Labour continued to slide elsewhere.

            Regarding Dunedin, need to make a firm distinction between DNorth (very similar to Wellington City in its unusually high Green support and comparatively weak swings to the Nats) and DSouth – which has experienced significant Lab-to-Nat swings over the last 2 elections (shockingly so in the far south-west – Green Island, Burnside, Concord, Abbotsford. Christ knows what’s going on there. Some would, no doubt, de-Clare).

            • mickysavage 1.1.1.3.1.1

              I don’t think we are disagreeing swordfish but I am concentrating on the immediate past election whereas you are talking about trends over a longer period. Certainly Christchurch and Dunedin used to be strongholds and I agree that Auckland is a mixed bag.

              South Auckland’s 2011 results were helped because Taito Philip Field’s party had disappeared.

              • Enough is Enough

                Big swing to the left in latest Roy Morgan

                March 13-26, 2014

                http://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/new-zealand/voting-intention-summary

                • lprent

                  Bounces around a bit. In this case National down by ~3.0% Greens up by ~3.5%. No other significiant changes.

                  • thechangeling

                    How come the Roy Morgan polling period says March 13-26 when it’s still only March 21st today?

                  • swordfish

                    Yep, bounces around. But, still, that’s the first time the Nats have dipped below 48 % since late Jan. See, I said these little spikes don’t last !!! Wonder what DPF has to say ? Given his Herald Digipoll post (March 18) entitled Mr Cunliffe the poll trend doesn’t lie.

                    It’ll be interesting to see the next series of polls. When you analyse monthly poll averages for previous election years (and, indeed, for 2012 and 2013) as I’ve done, you see immediately that significant surges or declines for either bloc never last.

                    So, let’s be clear: The Left have everything to play for this year. Still very much in the game.

                    • McFlock

                      There was one RM cycle that was really suspicious a year or so back: 3 lab statics/advances, then a 4-5% drop, repeated pretty regularly over a couple of years.

                      That screams a methodological issue to me.

                      But most of the bounce from RM poll to poll is simple sampling error. Then the bounces between say RM and fairfucked include genuine practical methodological issues, sampling error, and possibly a bit of (sub/)conscious bias (which one should never rule out as a possibility).

                      Reporters are some of the worst chicken littles, fluttering from crisis to crisis to dramatic resurgence, but politically it’s the trends that are important. And the trend with the largest granules is that such polls have gone from mostly “Nats can govern alone” to pinging quite a few “too close to call” or “labgrn ahead” results.

                      One merely needs to regard it all with a certain philosophical elan, and maybe head to the election saying something cool like “Today is a good day to Diet“. 🙂

                    • lprent

                      I tend to look on the 6-8 week averages because there is simply too much noise in the smaller samples. There has been very little movement overall

                • thechangeling

                  Blimey, it really is neck and neck still after all.
                  NZ First will be king maker.

                • McFlock

                  March 13-26, 2014

                  lol
                  I know the polls are rigged, but that’s ridiculous 🙂

                  I see they’ve corrected it back to march 03-16.

                  A wee chuckle on a Friday afternoon…

                  edit: snap TC. They probably use a template and the web tech tweaked the month but not the dates from the previous feb report 🙂

      • Tracey 1.1.2

        not papakura 😉

        • You_Fool 1.1.2.1

          Or Franklin. But both are much more rural electorates than the urban electorates in Manukau

          • swordfish 1.1.2.1.1

            True Tracey and You_Fool. But I certainly wouldn’t include Hunua (which replaced Franklin quite some time ago) in South Auckland, while Papakura is kind of half and half.

  2. Tracey 2

    The thing about the len brown poll for me is this…

    it’s all very well polling auckland voters on him but to be more accurate you need to find aucklanders whoa ctually bother to vote.

    it seems in auckland everyone has an opinion on our mayor and council but only about a third fill in their voting forms.

    not saying brown will get in next time, I personally dont think he will and he won’t get my vote. Not because of his affair as such but because I do expect honesty and integrity in my representatives, I deal with liars every day in my work, and I vote accordingly. If people continue to vote for people who lack honesty and integrity, guess what? They get representatives who behave contrary to honesty and integrity.

    I found his head in the sand over the POA annoying and while I know he is cosying up to Key to get more money for public transport in Auckland I think he let’s his ego override some of his thinking parts.

    I find it baffling that Labour polling is so low BUT I recall Cunliffe’s economic announcement to the BRT was on the lower right of p21 of the herald the next day, so most people wont even know he has one.

    • Clemgeopin 2.1

      It is appalling that our MSM, (TV and Newspapers) gave barely any notice/publicity to the Labour’s economic and forestry policy announcements. That is unfair and unjust. It is election year. The MSM is in the business of publishing news and information to the public so that they could make informed decisions. I think the MSM has been callous and prejudiced against Labour policy announcements so far.

      • Ron 2.1.1

        Why is that so surprising. The media you mention is owned by right wing people and their respective papers/TV stations reflect that view. The exception if probably TV1 which while being state owned has a board that looks like a National Party Branch meeting
        People by newspapers to put forward a point of view. I have no idea why a group of left leaning people do not set up their own paper and spread the news as they see it. Ditto with radio/tv stations.
        Just about every other western country has some form of left wing media. If we get a Labour government then I would hope that they will do something to redress the imbalance in MSM but they won’t of course.

        It is appalling that our MSM, (TV and Newspapers) gave barely any notice/publicity to the Labour’s economic and forestry policy announcements.

        • Clemgeopin 2.1.1.1

          A certain amount of fault actually lies with the Labour organisation and leadership as well because some mismanagement and mistakes, though minor, have been made so far and their so far publicised good policies have not been constantly refereed to in their interviews, communications etc. The public are not well aware of these policies yet.

    • Ant 2.2

      Anecdotally lots of people I know don’t think he should resign but still no longer support him, this included dyed in the wool left leaning southsiders. The left should be looking for a new candidate in Auckland, all it will take is a solid centre rightwing candidate and he is gone – talk is of people like Lester Levy representing the right.

      Brown’s behaviour that people wrote off as eccentric before the affair now makes him look like a slightly creepy weirdo.

    • Populuxe1 2.3

      I don’t think the anomalous Len Brown results are all that weird. People tend to tell fibs to people talking to them on the phone because unconsciously they want to be liked and approved of – they are only thinking in terms of talking to an individual, not being part of a poll. So yes, they’ll lie and say they voted because not to have voted would look bad, and Len Brown has made a fool of th epeople who voted for him, so not wanting to appear to be a fool, they’ll lie about that too.

      • lprent 2.3.1

        So what you’re saying is that polls aren’t particularly useful in themselves. I told everyone that a long time ago.

        Trends of a series of polls from the same company are of a bit of interest.

        But trying regularly jump from a poll results to “this is what it means for the makeup of parliament” is just the sure sign of someone having a quick public self-satisfied mastubatory relief (and which should have just as much attraction to anyone who observes it). As is anyone in NZ’s polling desert of looking at polls of polls from different companies. As far as I can tell statistically, that just means that errors tend to magnify.

        😈

      • mickysavage 2.3.2

        The results are weird in that they do not match reality. The Auckland sample people questioned were also asked questions about Len and their responses to the did you vote for Len questions showed either that a number of them were fibbing or that they were not a representative sample. Either way you have to question whether or not they are representative of Auckland opinion.

  3. captain hook 3

    where is wail boil getting the money to pay off digipoll?

  4. weizguy 4

    Where can I find the actual poll? Are the additional questions (Len Brown, Flag) asked at the same time (more importantly, are they asked before?). How much effect might that have about how people respond to the later questions?

  5. ScottGN 5

    It was interesting too that Audrey Young felt compelled to write a whole column defending the Digipoll after David Cunliffe had the temerity to suggest it was at odds with Labour’s internal polling. I hate to sound like a mad conspiracy theorist but it wouldn’t surprise me to learn that the Herald decided to poll at exactly the same time Cunliffe was dealing with the election trust issues.

    • Anne 5.1

      The other way round ScottGN. Digipoll chose their polling days to coincide with Cunliffe dealing with the election trust allegations. In other words, they know what is expected of them. I have long been of the view that National will time their allegations (especially when they’ve been sitting in Key’s top drawer for some time) when they know a sympathetic polling company is about to poll. The Herald played its part by burying Cunliffe’s economic announcements on page 21 the following day.

      I think it can be safely claimed that Digipoll are not as objective in their polling techniques as those used by other media outlets and political parties. The fact they consistently over estimate National’s poll ratings and have done so for years has to be considered suspect. That is not to say that occasionally their findings may fit in with other polling companies, but it’s my observation it is a fairly rare occurrence.

      • Tracey 5.1.1

        Who loves polls the most? Who hates the idea of not having them at all or even for 3 months prior to an election? Once you answer those questions you see who they serve.

        It’s NOT about educating the masses on different political options.

  6. dv 6

    There is ONE thing that really annoys me about poll reporting is the reporting of the % to 1dp

    It is absolute BB

    (There is more than one thing actually)

  7. Sanctuary 7

    The Herald’s reporting of the Collin’s affair vs. it’s reporting of on Cunliffe’s trust are the absolute gold standard for the right wing political bias of that paper. Cunliffe’s trumped-up charges were the subject of an on-going string of sharply critical articles over a two week period, full of uninformed speculation couched as a story (“Is Labour in crisis?”), hectoring lectures from Audrey Young (fresh from her papers near daily hagiographies of the ACT party) and now dodgy polls and an article repeating baseless speculation from – of all people – Matthew Hooton that look very much like an orchestrated attempt to sow in the public mind a narrative that Labour is in disarray.

    By contrast, Collins got a bit of bad PR for a couple of days with some restrained stories and nice admiring “Collins doesn’t know the word ‘defeat’” headline from John Armstrong by way of rehabilitation. Expect Parata to get similar softly softly treatment now Key has signalled she is not going to be sacked.

    The Herald’s editorial agenda is clear – they have set out to nobble Labour’s chances of victory in the general election before the campaign even gets started by running an actively pro-National disinformation campaign.

    • Bearded Git 7.1

      Quite right Sanctuary-there has been an orchestrated (Hooton, Farrar and friends) attempt to paint Labour in disarray where this is simply not true.

      For instance the Herald ran a poll on Labour asking can it recover (from a dodgy poll result!) where one option was something like “no Labour is in a mess and cannot recover”.

      This is “no I have never beaten my wife” stuff. Total bias.

    • Ant 7.2

      The media also insists on enabling John Key to act like a cross between an exasperated dad whose hands are tied and a disinterested spectator that they’ve just gotten to provide comment on a story – not the leader of the National Party and PM who is ultimately responsible for these screw ups.

    • Tracey 7.3

      and cunliffe’s economic policy announcement made page 21 of their next edition… bottom right…

      • Mainlander 7.3.1

        I sure hope page 21 was the last page if not it should have been further back it made that much sense

    • RedLogix 7.4

      Yes. All of us who have been paying attention have a pretty clear idea now of how these disinformation campaigns work.

      Which should give us something of a clue as to how to break them.

      • Tracey 7.4.1

        it seems to counter them you either have to have money to advertise and billboard the crap out of them or have such an amazing on the ground presence… pretty sure the second is how Clark got through the Shipley regime

  8. Chooky 8

    why dont people organise a BOYCOTT of the Herald?….terminate their subscriptions( with the reason of NACT bias and unfair reporting and journalism)

    …or boycott it on the news stands… or plaster red ‘danger bias’ or ‘enemy of the people’ stickers on it in cafes/libraries where it is available for a free read

    …refuse to advertise in it ( and give them the reasons)

    …..in other words HIT IT where it hurts the most in its pocket

    (….these days you can get your news elsewhere for free…my newspaper often remains unwrapped)

    • Enough is Enough 8.1

      Chook most of those advertising are Capitalists ….those people who vote and love National.

    • Tracey 8.2

      I took up their free one month subscription and promise of a follow up interview so that I can tell them why i stopped subscribing some years ago and would rather poke my eyes out with a fork than pay them a single cent for it. I shall point them to the ODT as one of my favourite online reads each day, sans Auckland issues of course.

    • Jason 8.3

      Hi Chooky,

      Got a call from Herald to subscribe to their paper. Had received a 2 week free trial. Told the guy too right wing for me, no thanks.

  9. Tom Gould 9

    A rogue? Some might say doctored? Who knows? The Herald is running a pretty virulent anti-Labour campaign. They seem to have simply abandoned any pretence of the old fashioned “fair, balanced and accurate” media ethos and moved their content to match their paper stock: full tabloid. It has now reached the point where the Herald needs to be considered a publication of the National Party. On that basis, we can take it for what it is, and rely on other media for “news”. The paper has become irrelevant beyond its role as a National Party newsletter.

    • Populuxe1 9.1

      Nah – people never tell the truth to pollsters. They don’t want to feel judged

  10. Macro 10

    Seems obvious that when asked of their political opinion over the phone – people don’t always tell the truth – and why should they – nosey bastards! Furthermore, it seems pretty obvious from the Brown result that there was a good amount of push polling in this one i.e. the Herald getting the answer they wanted.
    So all one can say about the validity of the Herald digiPoll is that it is rubbish.

  11. tricledrown 11

    11% undecided voters .
    What was the previous undecided % .
    This time of the electoral cycle its usually a higher % of undecided.
    This is only a telephone survey landlines only.
    When you look at Lens pre election poll vs actual result.
    The number of people Now relying on just cell phones Now will be a very signifigant especially in poorer houses labour green supporters.
    Even with this latest herald poll the undecided vote is still more than Enough to have National worried.

    • swordfish 11.1

      “What was the previous undecided %”

      For the Herald Digipoll – 12.6 % in previous (Dec 2013) and 8.6 % in one before that (Sep 2013).

  12. Jan 12

    And, and, and guess what – you could fill in that poll on what people thought of Labour’s “problems ” over and over and over again – another doctored poll!

  13. anker 13

    I love the idea of a boycott of the Herald. It could be just for the print paper (where most of their adds are) so we can keep an idea of what trype they are writing on stuff.

    I have yet to hear back from the Editor of The Herald re my two complaints one of an article of Fran O’Sullivans and one Claire Trevett, so its off to the Press Council for a formal complaint.

    Seriously though a boycott would be great. Whose in?

  14. Blue 14

    Herald DodgyPolls are pretty much always out of whack with the more reliable polls, such as Roy Morgan. They have a smaller sample size and seemingly some significant flaws in methodology. They tend to heavily overestimate support for National.

    I find it incredible that on the basis of just one poll the Herald feels justified in dragging Labour through the mud, with their puffed-up imbeciles writing garbage suggesting that Labour is doomed and implying Cunliffe should be sacked, but can’t be because of the new rules.

    Then we have news headlines today screaming that Shane Jones is leaving Labour, and why? Because Matthew Hooten consulted his butt and wrote an article about it. Since when is Hooten’s opinion considered news?

    Every year the standard of our MSM gets worse.

    • HG 14.1

      Roy Morgan a reliable poll!? You have to be joking mate!! Roy Morgan is well known for manipulating poll results to generate media interest.

      • james 14.1.1

        HG – Really. They have often been mentioned as the most reliable poll from people on this blog (untill poor results started coming thru that is).

        Anyway – any evidence that they have “manipulating poll results” or is this just what you believe under the tin foil hat?

        [lprent: You’re lying about me. So you are banned for two weeks.

        RM are “reliable” because they poll about every two weeks. That is about 24 times per year. Whereas each of the other polls in NZ do it about 9 or 10 times per year is they are lucky. Therefore with a higher frequency you can see the poll trend lines more easily. They also are known to poll some cellphones which helps with areas like Auckland that are sparse on landlines in many suburbs. You can find numerous comments and post about this subject by me.

        If you want to make general statements about this site, then I’d suggest that you read the policy because you’ll find you are talking to and about me as a grumpy sysop with a propensity to banning mumpties like yourself who waste my time. I find this has a salutary effect on debate because it makes moronic fools like yourself have to give up lying by assertions about abstract groups.

        I’d suggest that you direct your comments to specific other people and it often pays to link to examples if you want to continue commenting. ]

        • Enough is Enough 14.1.1.1

          Ummmm the fact they have National ahead should be enough evidence for you James.

          Do you honestly think that with the dicontent in New Zealand and massive unemployment that National are in reality popular.

          • McFlock 14.1.1.1.1

            Well, I wanted to believe the same thing as you in 2011.

            Herald might be bunk – almost always is. But RM have a regular enough cycle to look at trends. Whether you want to bump a crude error adjust above or below those lines is up to you, as long as you have some logical basis for the extent of the adjustment.

  15. Tigger 15

    I polled two people and they both said John Key is a flesh puppet with a tiny maggot-alien controlling him from his brain. So it must be true.

  16. chris73 16

    Absolutely right, theres nothing wrong with Labour so whatever you do DON’T (sorry for the capital letters but its really important) change anything, just keep on doing what you’re doing 🙂

  17. Cancerman 17

    The poll may well be “roguish” but taken with all other poll it does fit a trend and these can’t be ignored.
    In regards to Auckland that drop does appear too big and think will correct in future polls but I think David’s gaffe over the “house attack” did really annoy many Aucklanders who are struggling to afford housing, and these are the Aucklanders who vote Labour as the National Auckland voters love these house price rises.

  18. yabby 18

    On the number of digi-polled people who claim to have voted.

    I think the whole Herald polling methodology is fraught with so many issues to be remotely relevant, but I have no problem believing that 85% of those who responded voted, or claim to have voted. This is because people who take the trouble to read and vote in polls are politically inclined and most Herald online readers would be in that category.

  19. mickysavage 19

    And the latest Roy Morgan is out with Labour on 31.5%, National 45.5% Greens 14% NZ First 3.5%. Back to stalemate …

  20. captain hook 20

    Anybody with an historical bent should check out the piccy of Harry Truman when the yellow press printed the morning edition saying he had lost when he had won.

  21. Clemgeopin 21

    Based on the published polls so far, my own estimate of the election night party vote result
    will be close to these figures I think:

    NATIONAL……42.6 %
    LABOUR………33.1 %
    GREENS……….11.5 %
    NZF…………….06.3 %
    CONS………….02.4 %
    MAORI………..01.6 %
    MANA………….01.0 %
    ACT…………….00.3 %
    UF………………00.2 %
    OTHERS………..01.0 %

    • McFlock 21.1

      I think you need to factor in the media smelling blood on the campaign.

      If it becomes obvious to the people that labour really are toast, look for another sub-30 labour result. On the other hand, if national start to bleed, the media will lay into them (on the grounds that they might not have a tory govt, but at least they’ll keep their ratings/circulation in the next term), and national will go to mid thirties or worse. And it’s in the media’s interests to tout a “landslide” victory, whomever wins. Drama sells news.

      So I reckon it’s unlikely to be as close as 2011 – but I still think it’s too far out to see which way the swing goes. Beginning of september would be a more realistic time to make predictions.

      • Clemgeopin 21.1.1

        This is NOT the final prediction, but TRUE if election is held today, based on the existing published polls.
        Obviously my ‘prediction’ will change when new polls are published.

    • Bearded Git 21.2

      Maori Party dead in the water now Flavell has says he will go with National.

      All Green and Labour voters should vote Mana in the Maori seats. The result will be an overhang where Mana gets more seats than it’s party vote and those overhang seats will go to the left.

      • felix 21.2.1

        When did Flavell say that, BG?

        • karol 21.2.1.1

          RNZ. Flavell said Maori Party most likely to go with the major party with the most votes.

          RNZ

          3 News

          • Colonial Viper 21.2.1.1.1

            Whichever big party can deliver the baubles of office is good enough for Flavell.

            Inspirational principle from the Maori Party.

          • felix 21.2.1.1.2

            Thanks karol.

            Pretty cowardly of him I reckon, saying he’ll go with National if they’re the single biggest party. He knows they’ll be the single biggest party. Everyone knows that.

            It’s like me saying I’ll have a donut for breakfast but only if gravity still exists in the morning.

            Just be honest Mr Flavell and admit you’re having a donut because you want a donut.

            • Bearded Git 21.2.1.1.2.1

              Ha ha that’s right Felix. But I do think we should be spreading the word on the fact that Lab/Gre should vote Mana in the Maori electorate seats (while obviously party voting Lab/Gre)

              Thanks for explaining Flavell’s position Karol.

              • felix

                Indeed BG, you’re onto it.

                Voters in Maori seats need to know that the maori Party are absolutely definitely going with National, so don’t gamble on them again.

                Now I’m off to get that donut

      • Clemgeopin 21.2.2

        I too think that due to Flavell’s National favouring statement, their support will fall a little, but I am not sure if that falling support will go to Mana or Labour. I think Labour. I also think that Hone will win his electorate vote easily and may be one other Mana electorate member (Annette Sykes ?).

  22. Ad 22

    Support for the Labour Party has risen slightly to 31.5% (up 1%), the Greens have jumped to 14% (up 3.5%), New Zealand First 3.5% (down 1%), Mana Party 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ 1.5% (down 1%) and Internet Party (0%, unchanged) while support for Others is 1% (up 1%).

    Latest Roy Morgan

  23. anker 23

    Yes just come across the RM poll. I was reading aa article about this crap about Jones going to NZ first and there was a headline at the bottom of that article. I thought I was hallucinating! Where were the heading on stuff, Left v Nats its neck and neck??? Nothing. Yet when the polls show Labour doing badly, its blazoned all over stuff. Maybe they want to keep it quiet???

    • Bearded Git 23.1

      Exactly anker. But if the left can get such a reasonable poll result with all this crap being thrown against them in the MSM imagine how good the polls will look in 6 months after a good election campaign. And Cunners is the man!

  24. anker 24

    Just checked the Heralds new website. Clicked on National, clicked on politics.

    Absolutely nothing about the latest RM poll! WTF

    • Clemgeopin 24.1

      Just shows that it is a pro right prejudiced non balanced news controlling newspaper.

  25. finbar. 25

    The knowing of the polls,is land line question,a cover of land line users.No youth or their mind will have been questioned in the valley of the elections win.Only will old phone table result in the questions.The winner in the race,is the one that can capture our youths arrogant ignorance of superiority of what, are yous going to do for us you lying bunch of users.

    Our youth does understand that.

  26. finbar. 26

    Cunliffe is not your open shirt this is me.He is and looks uncomfortable in his new look.Cunliffe should be left to shine in his cloths,that are comfortable to him,not some,this is the way to look and dress.Cunliffe should let his personality shine,and questioned about our lands finances, and direction, his care and knowing will shine.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • The coronavirus outbreak in China: what a difference a week makes
    When it comes to emerging infectious diseases and outbreaks, so much can happen in a week. In the case of the coronavirus outbreak in China, I’ve gone from not being too alarmed, to thinking “oh, crap!”. But that still doesn’t mean we should all panic. As I’m writing this on ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    7 hours ago
  • National cries wolf over Coronavirus
    Opposition MP Michael WoodhouseLast week, the current National Party leader, Simon Bridges, claimed that the Minister of Health wasn’t leading on ‘significant issues that matter to New Zealanders within his Health portfolio’ when commenting about the Government’s response to the Coronavirus outbreak.This silly comment was made despite David Clark working ...
    17 hours ago
  • Fluoridation and sex steroid hormones – or the mouse that roared
    All the recent research anti-fluoride campaigners promote as “evidence” of harm from community water fluoridation amount to cherry-picking a very few statistically significant results from a large number of non-significant results. The whole exercise is a bit like the “Mouse that Roared.” Credit: The Mouse that Roared – TMTR Intro ...
    19 hours ago
  • Leave Neve alone
    Neve Te Aroha Gayford at RatanaI’m sure I’m not the only one to notice that the Ratana birthday celebrations this year were a well-attended event that went off without much of a hitch. This is in stark contrast to previous years, where some form of controversy has usually taken centre ...
    2 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #4
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Jan 19, 2020 through Sat, Jan 25, 2020 Editor's Pick The companies that have contributed most to climate change Thought-provoking readings on those most responsible for the pollution. Sometimes, ...
    2 days ago
  • The swimming pool paradox
    It’s another warm day, but the breeze isn’t helping much, so off I go to the inviting outdoor swimming pool (banner picture) at the other end of campus. It’s an unheated pool (well, there’s no artificial heat source), which means one thing: It’s going to feel cold when I get ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    3 days ago
  • 100 seconds to midnight
    The Doomsday Clock is a tracker created by he Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for how close we are to global destruction. Created in 1947, it got worse as the Cold War started, then improved as it cooled down, then got worse again as Ronald Reagan tried to confront the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • A multitude of drops: Social tipping points in climate action
    If you’re here, you probably know that the climate crisis is upon us, that it’s getting steadily worse, and that attempts to address it haven’t worked yet. People are still driving and even advertising SUVs with impunity, and oil companies are exploring like crazy, even in New Zealand. Politically, socially, ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert McLachlan
    4 days ago
  • The Thoughtful Mr Parker.
    Stunningly Wrong-Headed: So blinded are the “left-wing” believers in free markets and free trade (like Trade Minister, David Parker) that even when they are staring directly at the wreckage of the lives and communities which these “unconscionable freedoms” (to borrow Marx’s telling phrase) have left in their wake, they cannot ...
    4 days ago
  • What’s the problem with all science being “done” in English?
    I’ve been listening to a wonderful podcast this morning which left me thinking. The podcast was a 30-min well-spent break, in the company of Daniel Midgley and Michael Gordin.  You might know Daniel Midgley from the Talk the Talk linguistics podcast. Michael Gordin is the author of “Scientific Babel”, which ...
    SciBlogsBy Andreea Calude
    4 days ago
  • Snakeflu?! An intriguing source suggested for new Chinese coronavirus
    The whole world is on edge over a coronavirus outbreak that started in early December in Wuhan City, China. The virus is thought to have first infected people working at a seafood and live animal market. So what could the original source have been? There’s no official word yet, but ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    4 days ago
  • Simon’s Philippine jaunt: #LittleBoysPlayingToughguys
    Not too far back, Simon Bridges the Leader of the Opposition and National Party, went on an excursion to China. This was arranged not by MFAT (NZ’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade), but by their MP Jian Yang – a man who also just happened to “forget to mention” ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    4 days ago
  • Will Turia ever forgive Labour?
    Dame Tariana Turia with former PM John KeyWhat is it about Tariana Turia’s grudge against the Labour Party? Not content with attacking the Government over Whānau Ora funding, which was increased by $80 million in 2019, she has now made it personal by saying that Jacinda Ardern is out of her ...
    5 days ago
  • What are the recent fluoride-IQ studies really saying about community water fluoridation?
    Scaremongering graphic currently being promoted by Declan Waugh who is well known for misrepresenting the fluoride science This graphic is typical of current anti-fluoride propaganda. It is scare-mongering, in that it is aimed at undermining community ...
    5 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #3, 2020
    Biography of a policy metric Bård Lahn performs a sweeping literature review to present the history of our notion of a "global carbon budget" and how this number has come  to encapsulate a massive amount of scientific research into a useful, easily grasped tool in our policy skill set.  A ...
    5 days ago
  • Oxfam Report: Time to Care – Unpaid and underpaid care work and the global inequality crisis
    January 2020 Economic inequality is out of control. In 2019, the world’s billionaires, only 2,153 people, had more wealth than 4.6 billion people. This great divide is based on a flawed and sexist economic system that values the wealth of the privileged few, mostly men, more than the billions of ...
    Closing the GapBy Tracey Sharp
    5 days ago
  • How to avoid being a cunt to hospo workers’
    Working hospo is hard mahi for many reasons, from long hours and gruelling high-volume weekends to customers who treat us as their servants. There are always lovely and polite customers who treat hospo workers with respect and kindness but, throughout my 15-years in the biz, I’ve collected a number of ...
    PosseBy chloeanneking
    5 days ago
  • 2019-nCoV (the new coronavirus): Should we be concerned, and will there be a vaccine?
    Probably yes to both but don’t panic yet. There is a plan. What is this virus? 2019 novel coronavirus, aka 2019-nCoV, belongs to a family of viruses called coronavirus. These are very common viruses that infect a wide range of animals including humans and can cause mild to severe disease, ...
    SciBlogsBy Helen Petousis Harris
    5 days ago
  • The Chinese coronavirus outbreak: what are the options for vaccines and treatments?
    By now you’ve probably heard of the coronavirus outbreak that started in Wuhan City, China. The number of cases is rising, up to about 300 with six deaths. Cases have been reported in several more Chinese cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, as well as in Japan, Thailand, and South Korea. ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    5 days ago
  • Educating New Zealand’s future workforce
    Judy Kavanagh Do you remember your first day at school? The education I received was for a very different world than the world of today. Along with huge social shifts there have been big changes in the New Zealand economy and the work people do. There are occupations unheard of ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    5 days ago
  • A casual attitude towards transparency
    Back in December, when the government was introducing new secrecy legislation on an almost daily basis, I posted about the Infrastructure Funding and Financing Bill. The Bill establishes a new class of public entity, "special purpose vehicles", which collect and spend public money and enjoy statutory powers. Despite this, they ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Against a carbon bailout
    If we are to avoid making the planet uninhabitable, we need to cut carbon emisisons fast. Which basicly means putting the fossil fuel industry - coal, gas, and oil - out of business. But this means that the banks and other lenders who have bankrolled the industry's environmental destruction will ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Still a criminal industry
    More evidence that the fishing industry suffers from pervasive criminality, with Forest & Bird highlighting some odd numbers in the annual statistics:The Annual Review Report For Highly Migratory Species Fisheries 2018/19 (Pg 4, Table 4) showed only 4% of commercial long lining trips for tuna and swordfish reported non-fish bycatch ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Controversy? Or Manufactroversy?
    A few days ago, New Zealand’s Minister of Education announced the wider release of a resource on climate change, which was initially trialled at a Christchurch school during 2018. According to the Minister, children will learn about “the role science plays in understanding climate change, aids understanding of both the response ...
    SciBlogsBy Alison Campbell
    6 days ago
  • The emerging coronavirus outbreak in China
    By now you’ve probably heard of the new virus causing an outbreak of severe pneumonia in China. The question on most people’s minds is, how worried should we be, especially as hundreds of millions of people will soon be travelling across China and beyond to visit family for the Lunar ...
    SciBlogsBy Siouxsie Wiles
    6 days ago
  • How did climate change get so controversial?
    An excerpt from the book Cranky Uncle vs. Climate Change, released Feb 25. Our human brain is poorly equipped to deal with a threat like climate change. Over millions of years, we’ve evolved to avoid life-threatening dangers like predators jumping out of bushes. We’ve survived by quickly detecting and avoiding immediate, short-term ...
    6 days ago
  • Farmers are ruining Canterbury’s rivers
    Its summer, so people naturally want to go for a swim. But in South Canterbury, you can't, because the rivers are full of toxic goo:As of Monday, the Waihi River at Wilson Street footbridge, Geraldine, the Waihao River at Bradshaws Bridge, and three spots on the Opihi River - at ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Sack Shane Jones
    Late last year, NZ First was caught trying to enrich itself from public office, with a dodgy forestry company linked to a number of NZ First figures sticking its hand out repeatedly for government money. Regional Economic Development Minister shane Jones' "explanations" were patently unconvincing, and his recusal from deciding ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • BIG idea physics
    This morning I’ve been having a quick look through some documentation from The Ministry of Education on proposed changes to NCEA Level 1 Science. For those not familiar with the NZ secondary education system, a typical student would complete NCEA level 1 at the end of year 11.  In this ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    7 days ago
  • Revolution in New Zealand? Not Even Close!
    No Fires Thanks, We're Kiwis: For the moment, in those close-to-home places where revolutions are born, there may be tetchiness and resentment, frustration and complaint, but nowhere is anybody uttering the cry that will bring a New Zealand revolution into being: “We have found the way to make tomorrow better ...
    7 days ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #3
    Story of the Week... Editorial of the Week... Toon of the Week... Quote of the Week... Graphic of the Week... Coming Soon on SkS... Climate Feedback Claim Reviews... SkS Week in Review... Poster of the Week... Story of the Week... 'It's heart-wrenching': 80% of Blue Mountains and 50% of ...
    1 week ago
  • Britain exits the European Union and takes a sharp right turn
    by John Smith  Britain’s exit from the imperialist bloc known as the European Union (EU) is now irreversible. The crushing electoral defeat of the Labour Party has dismayed many workers and youth who had placed their hopes in Jeremy Corbyn, its left-wing leader. This article assesses these historic events, neither of which ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #3
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Jan 12, 2020 through Sat, Jan 18, 2020 Editor's Pick The Past and the Future of the Earth’s Oldest Trees Bristlecone pines have survived various catastrophes over the millennia, and they ...
    1 week ago
  • How climate change influenced Australia’s unprecedented fires
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections, and has been adapted into a new myth rebuttal on climate-wildfire connections with the short URL sks.to/wildfires Australia’s frightening bushfires, which kicked off an early fire season in September 2019, have already had cataclysmic effects, and the continent is still just in the early ...
    1 week ago
  • Gender Identity Ideology – A Partial Bibliography of Online Coverage
    This great resource has been contributed to Redline by Janie Doebuck. Janie made some notes on the bibliography: 1) It is by no means exhaustive. There are tons more gender critical posts, essays, articles, podcasts, youtube videos, etc. online. 2) There are links in the bibliography that are behind paywalls. There ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • About those biased Oscar Nominations
    There’s been a lot written about the 2020 Oscar Nominations and their apparent lack of diversity. It’s true, there are in fact no women nominated for the Best Director and very few nominees of colour across the board. But is this a result of a biased process or a symptom ...
    1 week ago
  • How New Zealand media reports chronic pain
    Hemakumar Devan Around three million New Zealanders access news media (both paper and online) every week. Yes, you heard that right! So, the potential for news media to shape public health beliefs is common sense. As chronic pain affects one in five New Zealanders, we wanted to find out how ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Still Waiting For American Democracy.
    Unfinished Republic: Though the United States' crimes against democracy are legion, most Americans are blissfully unaware of them. The brutal realities of American life: the officially sanctioned violence; the refusal to hold racists accountable for their actions; the seemingly endless tragedy of African-American suffering; of which White America is the ...
    2 weeks ago
  • In Outrage Over Its Bunk Science, Goop Finds Fuel for Growth
    Michael Schulson For years, experts have said that Goop, the wellness and lifestyle brand founded by the actor and entrepreneur Gwyneth Paltrow, markets pseudoscience and overblown cures. And for years, despite the criticism, Goop has just kept growing. Now the company, which was valued at $250 million in 2018, ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Tobacco Excise Taxes and the Smokefree 2025 Goal: Some Ways Forward
    Janet Hoek, Richard Edwards, George Thomson, Andrew Waa, Nick Wilson Debate over tobacco tax increases has intensified as research indicates potentially conflicting policy directions. On the one hand, excise tax increases continue to stimulate quit attempts among smokers yet, on the other hand, they may lead to financial hardship for ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    2 weeks ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #2, 2020
    Conflation and how to fix it VIa AMS,  Raul Lejano looks at what in a layperson's thinking would be called conflation— confusion and blending of entirely different topics— when people think about climate change. Ideology and the Narrative of Skepticism  (open access) starts with some arguably frightening false connections between the science and ...
    2 weeks ago
  • ‘Cranky Uncle’ smart phone game will show you how to disarm climate deniers
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bud Ward (Image: Courtesy of John Cook) When it comes to climate change, it seems every family has its own version of the proverbial Cranky Uncle. An uncle, cousin, grandparent, in-law, neighbor, whatever. Just think back to the recent holiday season’s large ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Science in the ’20s – part 1
      Outrageous, immoral or downright dangerous. That’s a description of the lifestyle of women “flappers” in the 1920s. Could it apply to science (and scientists) in the 2020s? Actually, you could look back at the past decade and see those, or similar terms, used about some science and scientists. Sometimes ...
    SciBlogsBy Robert Hickson
    2 weeks ago
  • Postscript: Citizenship Granted.
    I am pleased to say that I have been granted NZ citizenship. I need to do the ceremony for things to be official, but the application was a success. I now join my son as a dual NZ-US citizen. To be fair, very little will change other than the fact ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    2 weeks ago
  • Hard News: Music: Morales is coming
    It will be no secret to longtime readers that I, Russell Brown, love the disco.   So I'm pretty excited by the fact that one of the greats of the game is returning this summer – and also pleased to say I have tickets to give away.Legendary mixer and DJ ...
    2 weeks ago
  • The WHO Vaccine Safety Summit – from someone who was actually there
    The conspiracy I saw a new conspiracy theory flying around the other day. According to the conspiracy (that seems to originate from Del Bigtree), the World Health Organization have been ‘caught on camera’ questioning the safety of vaccines. Gosh this sounds as though someone was a mole at a ...
    SciBlogsBy Helen Petousis Harris
    2 weeks ago
  • The timely death of the British Labour Party
    Below is an article submitted to Redline by Alec Abbott  At its inception, the British Labour Party was a vehicle for the propagation of racist and imperialist views within the working-class. Such views are still widespread in the party, as they are in Europe’s Social-Democratic parties, though, in the case of ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Mystery China pneumonia outbreak likely caused by new human coronavirus
    Connor Bamford, Queen’s University Belfast Since December 2019, there has been a cluster of 59 cases of pneumonia in Wuhan, eastern China. The pneumonia is associated with a previously unidentified coronavirus related to the deadly SARS virus. Seven of those cases are thought to be serious, and one person – ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    2 weeks ago
  • Yes, koalas are cute – but should we bring them to NZ? Errm, no
    It’s been hard to miss the extreme fires raging across Australia and the tragic plight of the animals – human and otherwise – affected by the fires’ insatiable spread. I know I’ve been captivated and concerned by the tales of how Australia’s famous wildlife has been coping. Koalas approaching cyclists ...
    SciBlogsBy Sarah-Jane O'Connor
    2 weeks ago
  • National’s negative campaigning
    Anybody who looked into the Dirty Politics saga knows all too well that honesty is often in short supply within the National Party. You would think that after the exposure the John Key government received over their untruthful attack politics, the National Party would learn from its "mistakes" and leave ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Ending the government’s charade over water
    For the past decade, the government has been responding to the obvious Treaty issues raised by water allocation with the mantra that "no-one owns water". But last year, the Waitangi Tribunal ruled that actually, Māori owned it, and that those rights had never been extinguished. They recommended that iwi bring ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Northern Ireland joins the civilised world
    Same-sex marriage has finally become legal in Northern Ireland. But not through any decision of the Northern Irish Executive or Assembly, which has only just reformed after a three year walkout by the DUP; instead, Westminster made that decision for them. I've talked before about the constitutional impropriety of this, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • I had an intense conversation at work today.
    Claire Cohen-Norris volunteers with Citizens Climate Lobby as a chapter founder and leader in rural New York. Her climate advocacy sprung from her drive to provide a secure, joyful and fulfilling life for her two wonderful children. It has become a life’s mission, shared with her like-minded husband and partner. Claire ...
    2 weeks ago
  • French transport workers take on Macron over pension reform
    by John Edmundson Starting on December 5th, 2019 workers in the Parisian rail network commenced an open-ended strike in opposition to French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposed changes to their pension scheme. Rail workers in the Metro Underground have, for decades, had retirement conditions that compensate them for the low wages, ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • What a difference the decimal point makes
    I’m back at work following a nearly three-week break over Christmas. We were fortunate to be offered a house to stay in for a week over Christmas, which enabled us to have a holiday in Dunedin and see the extended family reasonably cheaply. But the house came with a catch:  ...
    SciBlogsBy Marcus Wilson
    2 weeks ago
  • Who’s Going To Stop Him?
    Blank And Pitiless: Having ordered the assassination of the Iranian General, Qasem Soleimani, President Donald Trump promised to reduce the cultural monuments of Iran’s 3,000 year-old civilisation to rubble if a revenge attack was mounted. A breach of international law? Certainly. A war crime? Indisputably. Who’s going to stop him? Nobody.WHAT ...
    2 weeks ago
  • A worker’s story
    This interview is from Aotearoa Workers Solidarity Movement (AWSM) and is the first of an ongoing series of interviews they plan to do with workers from various sectors who are having their well being and livelihoods damaged. They begin with an educator in Southland. Due to the attitude and actions ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • 2020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #2
    A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, Jan 5, 2020 through Sat, Jan 11, 2020 Editor's Pick Debunked Australian Bushfire Conspiracy Theories Were Pushed by Alex Jones, Murdoch Media   As unusually intense and widespread bushfires have ...
    2 weeks ago
  • J.K. Rowling, the Seattle Library, and the Issue That Must Not Be Named
    This article was submitted to Redline by Seattle-based activist Lucinda Stoan J.K. Rowling recognizes repression when she sees it.  That’s why the author of the wildly popular Harry Potter books recently tweeted in defense of Maya Forstater. Forstater lost her job for stating that sex is real and immutable. A judge ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    2 weeks ago
  • Rules of Empire: Laws simply do not apply and “National Security” excuses all else.
    Empires rise and fall, and the American Empire is absolutely no different. But while an Empire, in order to further the footprint, it seems to pay to do one primary thing above all else: project that everything – everything – is “simply for the good of the world” at large, ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 weeks ago
  • Indian lessons for NZ workers – the January 8 general strike
                    by Phil Duncan On Wednesday (January 8) another massive general strike took place in India.  Some 250 million industrial workers, white-collar workers, agricultural labourers struck against the government’s economic policies and attacks on the Muslim population through new proposed citizenship rules. This ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: The action that counts
    Over on Newsroom, Professor Jacqueline Beggs writes about the action she is taking on climate change. Its the usual list: reduce meat, don't fly, consume less. I'm doing some of this myself, and none of it hurts - but the way our economic system is constructed means the impact of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fossil fuel political giving outdistances renewables 13 to one
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk Corporations, special interest groups, and individuals inject billions of dollars into the American political system every year. Much of the financial support in politics is concealed from public view, as some rules – and loopholes – allow “dark money” and ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Animal response to a bushfire is astounding. These are the tricks they use to survive
    Dale Nimmo, Charles Sturt University Have you ever wondered how our native wildlife manage to stay alive when an inferno is ripping through their homes, and afterwards when there is little to eat and nowhere to hide? The answer is adaptation and old-fashioned ingenuity. Australia’s bushfire season is far from ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 weeks ago
  • Should I ditch my fossil-fueled car?
    Yes. Reducing the number of cars in your household, or switching from petrol/diesel to electric, will dramatically reduce your greenhouse gas emissions. It’s one of the easiest and highest-impact climate steps you can take. New Zealand is being flooded with cars The New Zealand vehicle fleet is increasing rapidly. In ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 weeks ago
  • Speaker: Planet History: Taking Tea with Quentin
    This interview with Quentin Crisp is part of a series of articles republished from Planet, the independent magazine I edited in the early 90s from a base at 309 Karangahape Road, along with Grant Fell, Rachael Churchward, Fiona Rae, David Teehan, Mere Ngailevu and others.Inevitably, you forget things, and over ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #1, 2020
    Supply Side How are we doing with CO2 emissions? It's an important question, increasingly posed to a mixed bag of CO2 contributors who may or may not provide accurate reportage. Liu et al present a new, additional means of measurement based on satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide co-emitted from ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Donald Trump’s strategic gamble
    There’s a meme going around the Internet at the moment claiming that Donald Trump is a bit of an idiot. To outside eyes it does seem as though the President of the United States thumbs his nose at his own countries laws and administration far too often to be taken ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Is the prostitute the seller or the sold?
    Excerpts from Being and Being Bought, by Kajsa Ekis Ekman, Spinifex Press, 2013. Ekman, a Swedish journalist and critic, brings together a Marxist and feminist analysis of prostitution and surrogacy in this groundbreaking book. This is the third part of a synopsis and brief commentary of the book by Daphna Whitmore. Part 1 was ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    3 weeks ago
  • The climate crisis is also a biodiversity crisis
    Dr Andrea Byrom Like many of us, the summer break has seen me transfixed with horror at the scale and magnitude of the bushfire crisis in Australia. As an ecologist, I can’t help but be appalled at the loss of some of Australia’s most beautiful ecosystems and landscapes. And ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    3 weeks ago

  • Week That Was: 2020
    We are back for 2020! From changes to Family Funded Care, to a record high number of Kiwis in construction in the trades - we're already back making progress on those long-term challenges. Read all about it and more ...
    4 days ago
  • Winston Peters: “Ihumātao deal still a long way off”
    Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told Mike Hosking that a settlement deal regarding Ihumātao in Auckland is still a long way off. The Maori King's flag was lowered at the site near Auckland Airport yesterday, sparking suggestions an announcement of a deal could be made by Waitangi Day. Pania Newton, ...
    5 days ago
  • Winston Peters accuses Gerry Brownlee of ‘politicising’ Holocaust memorial
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters is accusing Gerry Brownlee of "politicising" a Holocaust memorial event after the National MP questioned the lack of Kiwi representation there. The Yad Vashem World Holocaust Remembrance Centre in Jerusalem, Israel, is holding the World Holocaust Forum on January 23 to mark 75 years since ...
    5 days ago
  • Provincial Growth Fund to help Waipukurau Pā sites attract thousands of tourists
    The Ngā Ara Tipuna - Waipukurau Pā Site Interpretation project is receiving $2.798 million from the Provincial Growth Fund. It is is expected to boost the town's employment and tourism, creating sixteen new jobs once completed and attract up to 15,000 visitors a year. Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development ...
    6 days ago
  • “Common sense will prevail, not extremism” Winston Peters backs Shane Jones’ pro-meat stance
    New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is backing his MPs who have spoken out against a new climate change teaching resource that advises students to eat less meat to save the planet. The new teaching resource, announced by Education Minister Chris Hipkins and Climate Change Minister James Shaw, tells students ...
    7 days ago
  • Violent assault on paramedic highlights need for law change
    Darroch Ball MP, Spokesperson for Justice Today’s horrific violent assault of an on-duty female paramedic which rendered her unconscious is truly unsettling. “Our thoughts are with the paramedic, her loved ones and the St John’s team at Warkworth Station,” says New Zealand First Justice Spokesperson Darroch Ball. “Harsher penalties for perpetrators ...
    1 week ago
  • Acting PM Winston Peters confirms NZDF troops in Iraq not hit by Iranian attacks
    Acting Prime Minister Winston Peters called for calm and diplomacy following Iranian missile strikes on bases housing United States troops in Iraq, but confirmed New Zealand's base in the country was not hit. The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) was earlier today investigating claims New Zealand's base in Iraq had ...
    1 week ago
  • Kaikōura $10.88 million boost in tourism & business
    Fletcher Tabuteau MP, Parliamentary Undersecretary for Regional Economic Development The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $10.88 million to boost business and tourism opportunities in Kaikōura, Parliamentary Undersecretary for Regional Economic Development, Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. As part of the Kaikōura Marina Development Programme, the following two projects will receive ...
    1 week ago
  • Delivering a stable water supply to Wairarapa
    Hon. Ron Mark, New Zealand First List MP based in Wairarapa The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $7.11 million to create a sustainable water supply for the Wairarapa. The PGF will provide a $7 million investment to Wairarapa Water Limited to progress the Wairarapa Water Storage Scheme towards procurement, consenting, ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Housing consents hit highest level since 1974
    Housing consents have hit a 45-year high, as Statistics NZ data shows a total of 37,010 residential consents were issued in the year to November --- the first time they have breached the 37,000 mark since the mid-1970s. Statistics NZ said the trend had been rising since late 2011, when ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Darroch Ball MP: “Violence against first responders is a problem on the rise”
    New Zealand First MP Darroch Ball says that a paramedic being kicked unconscious last night in an attempted burglary in Warkworth, north of Auckland, is a symptom of a larger problem. "Incidents like this are becoming more and more frequent...and it’s getting worse," Mr Ball said. The MP is pushing for ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Minister Ron Mark asks NZDF to conduct fire risk assessment from defence point of view
    Defence Minister Ron Mark said there was nothing to prevent similar large-scale bushfires seen in Australia from also happening in New Zealand, and has asked the New Zealand Defence Force to conduct a nfire risk assessment from a defence point of view. The defence assessment would help prevent a disaster ...
    3 weeks ago
  • Defence Minister Mark expresses “absolute confidence” in NZDF forces stationed in Iraq
    While feeling worried about increased Middle East tensions, Defence Minister Ron Mark said he had "absolute confidence" in New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) leadership. His statements come as the fate of Kiwi troops stationed in Iraq comes under intense scrutiny. Forty-five Defence Force personnel were thought to be in the ...
    3 weeks ago

  • Minister pays tribute to journalist, author and broadcaster, Gordon McLauchlan
    The Minister of Broadcasting, Communications and Digital Media, Kris Faafoi, has paid tribute to well-known New Zealand author, journalist and broadcaster, Gordon McLauchlan, following Mr McLauchlan’s death today. “Gordon held a statesman-like place in New Zealand’s media, which was fittingly acknowledged in last year’s Queen’s Birthday Honours, when he was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • Minister wishes best of luck to those heading back to school
    As Kiwi kids and teachers return to classrooms over the coming weeks, the families of around 428,000 students will feel a bit less of a financial pinch than in previous years, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The Government’s decision to increase funding for schools that don’t ask parents for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Health staff to meet flights from China as precautionary measure
    Public health staff will begin meeting flights from China from tomorrow, to actively look for signs of the novel coronavirus and provide advice, information and reassurance to passengers. Health Minister Dr David Clark says the additional measures are being taken following the arrival of the disease in Australia, via flights ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • National Yearling Sales 2020
    National Yearling Sales at Karaka   26 January 2020    [CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY] Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here on opening day of the 2020 National Yearling Sales Series. Let us all acknowledge Sir Peter Vela and the Vela family for their outstanding contribution to the New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government and construction industry to build big, lift productivity with Transformation Plan
    Delivering the workforce and productivity gains required to build the houses, schools, roads, rail and hospitals New Zealand needs will become easier with the Government-industry Construction Sector Transformation Plan launched today, Minister for Building and Construction Jenny Salesa says. “The action plan launched today delivers on the Government’s Construction Sector ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Log trains to begin on Wairoa-Napier line
    Log trains are about to start running between Wairoa and Napier following Provincial Growth Fund investment to reopen the rail line, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says. The Government invested $6.2 million to reopen the mothballed rail line which was closed after significant storm damage in 2012. “With PGF ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Minister of Defence concludes successful visit with his US counterpart
    Minister of Defence Ron Mark met with United States Secretary of Defense Mark Esper today. “This was an excellent opportunity to meet with one of our closest security partners,” Ron Mark said. “The main focus of the meeting was to discuss challenges that New Zealand and the United States share ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • New Zealand acknowledges ICJ decision on Myanmar
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today acknowledged the ruling of the International Court of Justice in relation to the Rohingya people in Myanmar. The ruling ordered the Government of Myanmar to take all measures within its power to prevent the commission of acts of genocide in relation to members of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • NZ’s trade aims advanced at Davos meetings
    A proposal to cut “trade and production-distorting subsidies” in the agricultural sector by 2030 has set out important measures to ensure a fair agricultural trading system.  Speaking after attending meetings of trade ministers in Davos, Switzerland, Minister for Trade and Export Growth David Parker welcomed the joint proposal from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Great news for New Zealanders with cystic fibrosis
    Health Minister Dr David Clark says he is delighted that PHARMAC has struck a provisional deal to fund Kalydeco – a medicine which is set to improve the quality of life for about 30 New Zealand children and adults with cystic fibrosis. “While rare, cystic fibrosis is an awful inherited ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New Zealand least corrupt country in the world
    New Zealand has regained its position as the least corrupt country in the world for the second time under this Coalition Government, says Justice Minister Andrew Little. “New Zealanders can be proud that our reputation as one of the least corrupt countries in the world has been restored,” says Andrew ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Boost for Rēkohu/Wharekauri/Chatham Islands Community Conservation
    Community conservation in Rēkohu/Wharekauri/the Chatham Islands is receiving a boost, with grants to support local projects announced today by Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “Rēkohu/Wharekauri/ the Chatham Islands are home to 20 per cent of New Zealand’s threatened bird species and 11 per cent of New Zealand’s threatened plant species. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Rātana Pā goes high-tech with UFB
    Iwi, hapu and visitors to Rātana Pā near Whanganui now have access to ultra-fast broadband following its connection, completed in time for annual Rātana celebrations, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says. The connection and associated hardware were funded from the Provincial Growth Fund’s $21 million Marae Digital Connectivity programme, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Govt’s strong financial management acknowledged
    The Government’s strong financial management and plan to future proof the economy with new infrastructure investment has gained further recognition from an international ratings agency. Credit rating agency Fitch has upgraded one of its main metrics assessing the Government’s books, lifting its foreign currency AA rating outlook to ‘positive’ from ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Boost in Whānau Ora funding to keep changing lives
    Whānau throughout New Zealand are set to benefit from an extra three million dollars that will go directly to Whānau Ora Commissioning Agencies, the Minister for Whānau Ora Peeni Henare announced today.  Including previous funding boosts, the Agencies will now receive $87 million this year between them.  In Budget 2019 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • More people getting into work
    The December quarter benefit numbers released today show the Government’s plan to get people off the benefit and into work is starting to pay off,” Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni said.   “Nearly 19,000 people cancelled their benefit and went into work in the last few months of the year – ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Wairoa gets up to $6.1m to rebuild heart of CBD
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing up to $6.1 million to revitalise business and tourism opportunities in Wairoa, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. The PGF is funding: Up to $4.8 million for the Wairoa Integrated Business and Tourism Facility Up to $960,000 for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Major Events support for creative and cultural events
    Creative and cultural events that highlight New Zealand’s diverse culture and build national pride are set to get a funding boost through the Major Events Fund, Economic Development Minister Phil Twyford said today. The new Creative and Cultural Events Incubator, which is funded through the Major Events Fund, will open ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Classroom internet in hundreds of schools to get a boost
    The Government has begun a massive IT upgrade to provide more seamless internet access to 200 schools around the country. Te Mana Tūhono – Technology in Schools work programme will launch with a pilot of 10 smaller state schools early this year. IT equipment that gives students access to the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Construction workforce, apprenticeships hit record highs
    Working with industry and committing to rebuild New Zealand’s infrastructure has produced a record high number of Kiwis working in the construction industry and learning trades, says Minister for Building and Construction Jenny Salesa. New figures available today from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and the Tertiary Education ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • NZ concludes digital economy trade talks with Singapore and Chile
    A new trade agreement concluded today helps New Zealand exporters and consumers take advantage of opportunities from digital trade.    Minister for Trade and Export Growth David Parker together with Chile’s Vice Minister of Trade Rodrigo Yañez and Singapore’s Minister of Trade and Industry Chan Chun Sing, have announced conclusion of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Provincial Growth Fund to fund Waipukurau cultural development and tourism
    The Ngā Ara Tipuna -  Waipukurau Pā Site Interpretation project will receive $2.798 million from the Provincial Growth Fund to create an authentic cultural tourism experience, Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today “The project will inform visitors about the history of six pā sites in Waipukurau with a combination ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • 21 new judges boost diversity, improve access to justice
    Twenty-one new District Court judges have been appointed in a move that will improve access to justice and boost diversity on the bench. The new judges include replacements for retirements and 10 new positions. Attorney-General David Parker today announced the 14 judges who can immediately be named, with the remainder ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Puhinui to Auckland Airport in 10 minutes
    Aucklanders are another step closer to getting rapid transit to the airport, with the start of construction to upgrade State Highway 20B to the airport, Transport Minister Phil Twyford announced today. SH20B will be upgraded with additional lanes in each direction, dedicated to bus and high-occupancy vehicles between Pukaki Creek ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Advancing New Zealand’s trade agenda focus of Europe meetings
    World Trade Organisation reform, agricultural trade and a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom will be the focus of Minister for Trade and Export Growth David Parker’s visit to Europe this week. David Parker leaves on Tuesday for a series of meetings in the UK and Switzerland that aim ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister of Defence to visit counterparts in US and Canada
    The Minister of Defence, Ron Mark, departed today for the United States and Canada where he will meet with his counterparts.  While in Canada Minister Mark will meet with his counterpart, Minister of National Defence Harjit Sajjan.  “New Zealand and Canada are close friends, and share an instinctive like-mindedness on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government to deliver family carers $2000 pay rise, expand scheme to spouses this year
    The Coalition Government is delivering this year the changes to Funded Family Care the disability sector has long-asked for, says Associate Minister of Health Jenny Salesa. “Today we are announcing the details of our big changes to Funded Family Care, including an annual average pay boost of $2,246.40 for funded ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Ko te reo kua mū: Piri Sciascia
    Minister for Māori Development Nanaia Mahuta joins te ao Māori in their sorrow as they learn of the loss of one of the great orators and spokespersons of a generation – Piri Sciascia.  “The son of Pōrangahau was a staunch advocate for Māori development and served his people for over ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister opens new ecosanctuary at Cape Farewell
    A new ecosanctuary with a predator proof fence on Golden Bay’s Cape Farewell, which will restore a safe home for sea birds, rare native plants, giant snails, and geckos, was officially opened today by the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage. “There has been a fantastic community effort supported by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pacific partners work together to provide additional support to Australia
    The NZDF continues to support the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles fires in Victoria and New South Wales, including by transporting Republic of Fiji Military engineers from Nadi to Australia, announced Defence Minister Ron Mark. On Saturday morning a NZDF Boeing 757 will depart New Zealand to uplift ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Kaikōura $10.88 million boost in tourism & business
    The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is investing $10.88 million to boost business and tourism opportunities in Kaikōura, Parliamentary Undersecretary for Regional Economic Development, Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. As part of the Kaikōura Marina Development Programme, the following two projects will receive PGF funding: A $9.88 million investment to begin the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt accounts in surplus, debt remains low
    The Government’s books are in good shape with the accounts in surplus and expenses close to forecast, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. The Treasury today released the Crown accounts for the five months to November. The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) was above forecast by $0.7 billion resulting ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Auckland focus for first Police graduation of 2020
    The number of Police on the Auckland frontline is increasing with the graduation today of a special locally-trained wing of new constables. Police Minister Stuart Nash says the graduation of eighteen officers from Recruit Wing 333-5 means that more than 1900 new Police have been deployed since the Coalition Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Wairarapa gets $7.11m PGF water boost
    The Provincial Growth Fund is putting $7.11 million into creating a sustainable water supply for Wairarapa, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. The following two projects will receive Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) funding: A $7 million investment in Wairarapa Water Limited for the pre-construction development of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Progress with new Police station in Mahia
    Community safety and crime prevention in the East Coast community of Mahia has moved forward with the opening of a new Police station to serve the growing coastal settlement. Police Minister Stuart Nash has officially opened the new station, which was relocated almost 20 kilometres along the coast from the nearby ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Plans to protect the future of whitebaiting announced
    With several native whitebait species in decline the Minister of Conservation Eugenie Sage has today released proposals to standardise and improve management of whitebait across New Zealand. “The need for action for a healthy whitebait fishery has never been greater,” Eugenie Sage said.  “Four of the six whitebait species are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New resource for schools to increase awareness and understanding of climate change
    A new Ministry of Education resource available for schools in 2020 will increase awareness and understanding of climate change, Education Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The resource, Climate Change – prepare today, live well tomorrow, will help students understand the effects of climate change at a local, national and global ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Getting more out of our most productive firms
    Finance Minister Grant Robertson has approved the terms of reference for an Inquiry into the economic contribution of New Zealand's frontier firms. Frontier firms are the most productive firms in the domestic economy within their own industry. “These firms are important as they diffuse new technologies and business practices into ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • NZDF sends more support to Australia
    The New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) is sending an Environmental Health Team, a Primary Health Care Team and a Chaplain to Australia, boosting New Zealand support for the Australian Defence Force (ADF) as it battles bush fires in Victoria and New South Wales, Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today. The ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand joins partners in calling for full investigation into air crash in Iran
    Acting Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters says that developments suggesting a surface-to-air missile is responsible for the downing of the Ukrainian International Airlines flight in Iran is disastrous news. “New Zealand offers its deepest sympathies to the families of the 176 victims. It is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago