This is no ordinary election (f*ck the polls)

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 am, July 31st, 2017 - 122 comments
Categories: activism, election 2017, greens, labour - Tags: ,

https://twitter.com/ArrestJK/status/891545109681942528

https://twitter.com/ArrestJK/status/891546552669360129

https://twitter.com/jacquishattock/status/891600329518731267

Unless…

It’s very interesting but it would pay to remember it’s one poll. There will be all sorts of ideas about what it means, so let’s keep our eye on the ball too.

This isn’t a set in stone election, it’s one that is in the midst of change, quite possibly big change. The Greens opened a door. Look at what is changing, where the points in the system are where we can intervene, and use the excitement and energy that is arising to get people out to campaign and vote. It’s the people who turn up on the day that decide the election, and the campaign is a critical factor in both encouraging people to vote and pushing back against the bias and bullshit in the MSM. Let’s make sure we tell the story we want people to hear.

Corbyn achieved what he did in various ways and not least by the people mobilising. He also broke left. Many progressives in NZ are also now shouting to Labour to step up, be bold, go for real and honest, do a Corbyn. So there’s an opportunity there too. Write letters to the paper, phone your local Labour MP, tweet and FB and blog, encourage Labour to do the right thing.

There’s also good Labour policy on offer. Not enough on its own, but let’s not lose sight of what is valuable and in hand. Keep telling people that it’s still worthwhile to change the government.

The Memorandum of Understanding stands, we need Labour as well as the Greens. Keep building momentum, incite hope, 

We can volunteer and donate to Labour and the Greens here,

Green Party donations and volunteer pages.

Labour Party donations and volunteer pages.

122 comments on “This is no ordinary election (f*ck the polls) ”

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  1. Ed 1
    31 July 2017 at 6:55 am

    20% of the population are waiting to hear radical policies offered.
    Corbyn’s UK Labour is the model.
    Be brave.

    • Enough is Enough 1.1
      31 July 2017 at 7:01 am

      Where did you pull that statistic from?

    • LivinInTheBay 1.2
      31 July 2017 at 7:03 am

      Says who?

      Maybe 20% of the country simply don’t care and see one Government as bad as the next.

      Maybe 20% of the Government are happy either way.

      My point is you just don’t know. Plus NZ isn’t the UK, and we’ve not had our ‘Brexit’ moment.

      One more point – in the last election Labour dropped a few % points on election night, as did the Greens and National. No prizes for guessing which party gained…..

      • One Anonymous Bloke 1.2.1
        31 July 2017 at 7:11 am

        Very much depends where that extra 1% came from.

        If you ask me, turnout will decide this election.

  2. Ed 2
    31 July 2017 at 7:02 am

    RNZ reporting the story as if it’s FPP not MMP.
    One battalion of the front line troops of neo-liberalism is the mainstream media.

    Labour must challenge their narrative at all times.
    Like Corbyn and UK Labour did.

    • Descendant Of Sssmith 2.1
      31 July 2017 at 7:10 am

      For National it is FPP though. As the largest party (which they maintain be destroying the other right parties or keeping them tiny) they’ll always get to try and form a government first.

      That’s the position they want to hold and maintain and they do it well. It’s no confidence they do enough like increase sole parent benefits to claim some moral high ground over the middle of the road voting public.

      Just enough and no more.

    • Ed 2.2
      31 July 2017 at 7:20 am

      Just sent this text to RMZ.

      ‘Thanks RNZ. I do not pay my taxes for Guyon Espiner to act as a stooge for the National Party. I shall be boycotting Morning Report until Espiner leaves. An utter disgrace from a public broadcaster.’

      • Johan 2.2.1
        31 July 2017 at 12:21 pm

        RNZ treated Bill English with cotton gloves this morning, while Andrew Little got the third degree.

  3. One Anonymous Bloke 3
    31 July 2017 at 7:05 am

    This.

    Thanks Weka.

  4. Descendant Of Sssmith 4
    31 July 2017 at 7:05 am

    Sigh wrote this in 2012

    “Here’s some of the things that were normal when I started work

    Decent benefit rates
    8 hour working day
    Time and a half
    Universal family benefit
    Ordinary people raising a family on one income
    State housing
    Weekends free to enjoy

    New Zealanders didn’t see these as left policies any longer – they had been normalised.

    Labour supports none of these things.

    We have moved so far to the right that normal seems beyond the breadth of thought of so-called left parties. Labour couldn’t even give those on benefit their measly $20-00 back.”

    There’s a few longer list in the the archives as well that pick up things like regional development, the right to strike and quite a few other things.

    They can’t even have a simple policy of building more State Houses when there is a housing crisis.

    Their policies are what are screwed up – leadership has nothing to do with it. The greens are filling the void. Good on em.

    • Sanctuary 4.1
      31 July 2017 at 7:08 am

      Yup.

      Bring back compulsory time and a half for overtime. That alone would get them a squillion votes.

      • Descendant Of Sssmith 4.1.1
        31 July 2017 at 7:12 am

        You ever noticed some firms still charge it but their workers don’t actually get it!

  5. Sanctuary 5
    31 July 2017 at 7:05 am

    I agree, Labour needs some circuit breaker policy that is muscular and unapologetically left without upsetting the horses.

    How about announcing the state will take over dwelling construction in Auckland and the government will build 60,000 affordable state houses (apartments, houses, townhouses) by 2021?

    Or announce a cut in GST to 10% – a huge benefit to the average NZ household – and it’s replacement by a 1% land tax?

    Be brave!

    • One Anonymous Bloke 5.1
      31 July 2017 at 7:16 am

      Who among them could authentically deliver that message?

      The Left vote has gone up 1%. That’s the message people need to hear. Get the vote out.

    • gsays 5.2
      31 July 2017 at 10:15 am

      How about no gst on fresh fruit and vegetables with a community services card?.

    • greywarshark 5.3
      31 July 2017 at 10:27 am

      And start more apprenticeship schemes. Short term introductory training courses with 90 days paid full employment thereafter. And those who can stick that can then go into building apprenticeships or other training with guaranteed work at a living wage at the end. It would start, there would be successes and failures, more would want to join in, it would be the thing, the ones who had failed could ask to do another introduction shorter than 90 days and work their way up, if they could. And give them some fun, have a weekly event where they can play rugby or soccer, against other teams on similar programs. And take them to a coffee house after, all part of the team-building and introduction to good habits.

      Also stop them from getting into bad working and training habits. Get young people into the system of block work time while they are attending college. So they go back to school from their job which they do as work training and experience, and can try out different sectors that suit their abilities and interests.
      Talking to an ITO person the other day – he remembers the Star program IIRR, and I remember one of their spectacular successes. He thought that there was an attitude problem that stopped many kiwi young from getting or retaining jobs. So start them at college before they become drifters around town.

      Treat the young as carefully as perishable produce which will go off if not given proper storage, lose its flavour, develop wilt, fungus spots etc. People are precious, treat our kids right and turn their energy to value for NZ, and value to themselves in a respected place in society, working in society, not off it or against it. Give them a living wage, reasonable hours and conditions, and a life plan they choose with a work-home balance.

    • Johan 5.4
      31 July 2017 at 12:24 pm

      Fuck the GST, remove from staple foods, follow the lead of several brave countries.

      • WILD KATIPO 5.4.1
        31 July 2017 at 2:22 pm

        Ha !- GST is only there to compensate for the highest tax brackets being let off paying an equitable share under neo liberalism.

        You want to get rid of GST? – throw out the neo liberals, – starting with the most rabid , which in this case , is of course National. Then work backwards and put the fear of thunder up each and every one of them.

  6. Keith 6
    31 July 2017 at 7:21 am

    Hoping Labour are going come alive apart from quietly rolling out the odd policy and then quietly going about their day is dreaming, based on the limp uninspired effort so far.

    Someone has to LEAD them with PASSION and look like they want to be in government.

    Nothing I have seen makes me think Andrew Little is the figurehead to be that leader and he has about ended all hope of being in government by offering to throw the towel in 8 weeks out from polling day. For fuck sake Andrew!!!

    Worse, given Labour look more like a party avoiding government, all I am seeing is each party to the left of National cannibalising each other’s vote. It is depressing.

    To me, if Labour don’t sort their shit out, and right now, today and for the next 55 days, the Nats are cruising to victory and don’t need to do anything.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1
      31 July 2017 at 7:31 am

      The Left vote went up by one percent. National are down five from the same point in 2014. Sorry to burst your bubble.

      • Keith 6.1.1
        31 July 2017 at 7:48 am

        I am been realistic, Labour have been hopeless so far and the left adjusting 1% up, assuming Winston wont go in with National is not telling me theres a ground swell to change this rotten government.

        Honest to god, based on the insipid spiritless effort so far with Little giving up 8 weeks out, i swear Labour don’t want it.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1.1.1
          31 July 2017 at 7:52 am

          Centrists, paralysed by panic at the thought of having to be part of a left wing government.

          • Keith 6.1.1.1.1
            31 July 2017 at 8:19 am

            Did you read my comment?

            • One Anonymous Bloke 6.1.1.1.1.1
              31 July 2017 at 8:21 am

              I suggested a possible reason behind your suspicion that Labour don’t want it.

              • Keith …
                31 July 2017 at 8:43 am

                What part of Andrew Little offering to step down, 8 weeks from an election, suggests to you Labour want to be in government? What the hell was he thinking? What kind of message does that send out? The Labour Party leader is so unsure of himself and so filled with self doubt he is willing to pull the pin at election time. Seriously Andrew????

                It is a giant bill board that screams he has given up and surrendered.

                Yes, I know, he will limp on, bloody unconvincingly from now on and ignoring this fiasco, nothing I have seen suggests they are wanting this bad.

                And the left must take votes from National, not from each other.

                • One Anonymous Bloke …
                  31 July 2017 at 9:04 am

                  Ok then. I was just agreeing with you by the way.

                  • Keith …
                    31 July 2017 at 9:12 am

                    Sorry mate, they’re doing my head in.

                    I just so want to see their leader articulating passion and why we need to rid ourselves of National.

                    • Anne …
                      31 July 2017 at 10:48 am

                      We’ve seen glimpses of passion from Andrew but not nearly enough.

                      And this tweet from Lew:

                      This poll result is a net +1 for the left. It is good news ONLY if Labour takes the fucking hint that safe politics is dead for this cycle.

                      Safe politics has been dead for Labour for years. There’s plenty of members who have been trying to tell them but they have consistently refused to listen.

                • Louis …
                  31 July 2017 at 10:38 am

                  For a start Andrew was asked a question, do people remember these headlines from last month http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11865741

                • Siobhan …
                  31 July 2017 at 11:11 am

                  Furthermore, he ‘blamed’ Turiana for taking the ‘air’ from Labour.

                  For starters, the right wingers going ballistic says more about them than her. Secondly…he should have stood by her and maybe shared in ‘the bump’.

                  However ‘taking votes from National’ is a ridiculous idea and pretty much the reason we face another term of National. National voters seem pretty happy with their lot.

                  Its time for Labour to stop dithering and convince the Workers that they are, in fact, a ‘Labour’ party.

                  • Louis …
                    31 July 2017 at 11:19 am

                    Andrew Little called Metiria brave. I watched that interview yesterday Andrew didn’t sound like he was blaming Metiria at all. He also said they were in contact with the Greens.

                  • weka …
                    31 July 2017 at 11:44 am

                    Who is Turiana?

                    • Psycho Milt …
                      31 July 2017 at 11:52 am

                      There does seem to be a remarkable inability to remember or spell Maori names among blog commenters. “Turiana” must win a prize for worst rendering of “Metiria Turei,” though

                    • Siobhan …
                      31 July 2017 at 12:03 pm

                      Fair enough…my incredibly bad.. it was not some sort of racist Maori spelling thing, more a middle aged brain fart from someone who can not spell or type, and while I usually take the time to retype my comments around 4-5 times before printing, I forgot to this time as a customer distracted me…so forget about it PM.

                      Now I’m going to withdraw and have a coffee and mutter to myself about why Labour can’t get the traction the should…though on the up side I now know who to vote for this year..Metiria Turei !

                    • greywarshark …
                      31 July 2017 at 2:21 pm

                      Mixup with Tariana Turia I think. And should Metiria Turei.

                    • weka …
                      31 July 2017 at 3:16 pm

                      #IamMetiria and MT herself have been all over the news and social media for 2 solid weeks. I think getting her name right is the least we can do (and it’s not just Siobhan that’s done this. I would guess Siobhan has had her fair share of people getting her name wrong).

                  • Louis …
                    31 July 2017 at 12:16 pm

                    I just watched the Radio NZ interview and he didn’t malign Metiria as you imply you have taken it out of context. Notably it was also a conscious decision for Andrew Little to say publicly that he spoke with his colleagues about his leadership although he has no intention of standing down.

    • Louis 6.2
      31 July 2017 at 10:18 am

      Question Keith, how do you get the media to be fair and unbiased and give Labour airtime?

      • Carolyn_nth 6.2.1
        31 July 2017 at 10:29 am

        left parties tend to get more airtime approaching elections – because the MSM are on notice to be balanced during the election period.

        PS: if the imbalance continues, it’s worth making an official complaint.

        • Louis 6.2.1.1
          31 July 2017 at 10:59 am

          I dont remember the media showing balance in 2014. I’m sure I remember people saying they have laid complaints. Nothing changed.

          • Carolyn_nth 6.2.1.1.1
            31 July 2017 at 11:14 am

            I do think the MSM do give more coverage to left parties during election periods than usual, but the Nats and it’s leader still tends to get more coverage – my memory of research done on it.

            • Louis 6.2.1.1.1.1
              31 July 2017 at 11:21 am

              You mean when the media ask a panel of representatives from the parties questions and such? I find the hostile negativity from the media against the left off putting.

    • Gabby 6.3
      31 July 2017 at 10:29 am

      I assume he admitted it in the knowledge it would leak out anyway.

  7. Cinny 7
    31 July 2017 at 7:22 am

    English admitted on TVNZ a few moments ago that the opposition parties could form a government and that national with it’s partners wouldn’t have enough votes to do the same. Will put up the clip when it becomes available.

    This election for the first time in years I’m voting Labour, have thought long and hard about it, and am feeling really good about backing them, part of that reason is Andrew as leader.

    I’ve a hoarding coming today, walking the talk 😀

    MMP FOR THE WIN 😀

    • James 7.1
      31 July 2017 at 8:21 am

      Technically they could do it by the numbers – but as little said in the interview there would be a credibility issue.

      Thus it won’t happen. Nzf will go with nats as I have said all along.

      • Robert Guyton 7.1.1
        31 July 2017 at 10:04 am

        You also declared the All Blacks would win against the Lions, 3 – 0, so we should treat your puffed-up predictions with what; wry amusement? Pity? Scorn?

      • Louis 7.1.2
        31 July 2017 at 10:07 am

        You have taken what he said out of context James.

      • Johan 7.1.3
        31 July 2017 at 12:30 pm

        BS James!!! Little said no such thing. Go back to your fuckin trolling!!!
        Why do you keep misrepresenting the facts? Ooops, I forgot, you are just a RWNJ!

      • Cinny 7.1.4
        31 July 2017 at 1:41 pm

        Want to do a wager re the election James? Self imposed ban wager, am doing one with Red.

        Any hoardings at your house James?

        • WILD KATIPO 7.1.4.1
          31 July 2017 at 2:29 pm

          – This election for the first time in years I’m voting Labour –

          Me too. After 3 decades !!!

          There have been signs , albeit small ones, that Labour is coming in from the big Rogernomics freeze and limbering up.

          Things like lifting the minimum wage and working towards a Living Wage upsets the neo liberals and is just fine and dandy with me.

          Also the more the merrier as it creates a solid base for any coalition partners.

          Labour this election for me.

          For sure.

        • Draco T Bastard 7.1.4.2
          31 July 2017 at 2:44 pm

          Red’s been banned permanently for trying to get around a two week ban.

  8. chris73 8
    31 July 2017 at 7:23 am

    🙂

    • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1
      31 July 2017 at 7:28 am

      Hi Chris. The Left vote increased by 1%. Let that fact sink in. National are down five from the same point in 2014. Let that sink in too.

      Have a nice day, Chris.

      • chris73 8.1.1
        31 July 2017 at 7:41 am

        Another one-two percent drop for Labour and Little won’t get into parliament but if you add Labour/Green and NZfirst they might just be able to squeak in but if you add National and NZFirst then its not even close

        But hey keep up the good fight 🙂

        • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1.1.1
          31 July 2017 at 7:51 am

          Obviously our hopes for the election result differ. You want to see more homeless people freezing to death, and I don’t.

      • LivinInTheBay 8.1.2
        31 July 2017 at 7:48 am

        Why are you comparing the Left’s current polling to its current polling and National’s current polling to 2014?

        If you’re being consistent you’d talk about 3 things.

        Labour dropping – that’s a disaster for the party.

        National are still st 47% regardless of the Barclay affair.

        The Left increased by 1% which *could* be a positive, however both the Greens and Labour drop on Election Day, as do National.

        One thing is for certain, it’ll be close.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 8.1.2.1
          31 July 2017 at 7:57 am

          I’m paying little attention to logic or consistency because treating one opinion poll as though you can derive meaning from it is stupid and vain.

          That doesn’t mean I’m going to stand by while people weep and wail and rend their garments, without at least attempting to cheer them up.

          • Robert Guyton 8.1.2.1.1
            31 July 2017 at 9:36 am

            I’m with you in that, OAB. Letting facetious comments such as those from our resident trolls, stand, is irksome and flaying them with the Whip of Mockery goes some way toward supporting the team.

          • Louis 8.1.2.1.2
            31 July 2017 at 11:14 am

            Incredulously some people seem to think, particularly on Stuff, on that one poll alone that National has already won the election.

        • Bearded Git 8.1.2.2
          31 July 2017 at 9:15 am

          I think that 47% is a rogue, which might make the whole poll a rogue.

  9. Philj 9
    31 July 2017 at 7:34 am

    Radio New Zealand, Morning Report, is becoming a problem for any opposition to this government. It’s called National Radio you know.

    • Ed 9.1
      31 July 2017 at 7:49 am

      Dreadful bias exhibited.
      Contrast the interviews with English and Little.
      No questions to English about homelessness, house prices, rental conditions, loss of manufacturing jobs, suicide rates, the working poor, etc etc etc.
      No the toughest question he was asked was “why have you only got 2 women in your top 10?’

      Radio New Zealand like the BBC pimps for the neoliberal establishment and Espiner is like the BBC’s Laura Kuennsburg.

      And our taxes pay his salary.

  10. srylands 10
    31 July 2017 at 7:36 am

    2017 will probably be an ordinary election. Just like 2011 and 2014. There is general prosperity and most policy settings are right. Some are world leading, eg helping the disadvantaged :

    https://siu.govt.nz

    Housing policy is a notable exception to the good policies. Paralysed by too many people who vote becoming wealthy through housing. Which is why Labour refuses to say that house prices need to come down by 60 percent. It is politically too late.

    While we have a stable centre left government in place delivering prosperity, the chances of change are slim.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1
      31 July 2017 at 7:44 am

      Meanwhile, in New Zealand, the Left block increased its vote by one percent, a result that also saw a three percent swing to the “Communist” (The sky is falling! The sky is falling!) Green Party.

      National, down five percent from a similar point in 2014, can take cold comfort from Labour’s lowest result.

      And what of the right wing “policy advisors” who have bludged so much income from the taxpayers of New Zealand to write the justifications for the things the National Party does to people?

      A change of government would affect the bottom line! Sob sob 😀

      • James 10.1.1
        31 July 2017 at 8:25 am

        Meanwhile some people are so desperate they use figures from he previous month for “their” side against figures from 3 years ago for the “others” trying to form an argument that things arnt so bad.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.1.1
          31 July 2017 at 8:31 am

          The desperation is in pretending you can gain meaning from a single data point, and that doesn’t mean you get to spew your nasty narrative unchallenged.

      • Anne 10.1.2
        31 July 2017 at 9:28 am

        Meanwhile, in New Zealand, the Left block increased its vote by one percent, a result that also saw a three percent swing to the “Communist” (The sky is falling! The sky is falling!) Green Party.

        Does remind me of the anti-Jeremy Corbyn MSM shrieking a month or two back. Didn’t do the incumbent Tories much good did it.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.2.1
          31 July 2017 at 9:38 am

          I’m entertaining the possibility that Turei’s move may be something the polls can’t accurately measure. I wonder how many previously disinterested voters even register in the sample.

    • Keith 10.2
      31 July 2017 at 7:51 am

      Policy setting that drive up house prices and rent but keep wages down and the quality of employment down are wrong policy settings.

      Starving essential public services of funding to cut taxes is wrong.

      The whole narrative is a lie but keep fooling yourself

      • One Anonymous Bloke 10.2.1
        31 July 2017 at 8:22 am

        Depends how you earn a crust. All those lies need expensive corporate looking reports to justify themselves.

    • WILD KATIPO 10.3
      31 July 2017 at 2:33 pm

      srylands

      I swear you are some recent American import from the conservative mid west , mate.

      You wouldn’t have a clue about what a real center left government is in New Zealand if it jumped up and fair kicked you in the nuts, buddy !!!

      Its almost a laugh reading your comments.

      And as for ‘ stability ‘ ?

      L0L ! – That’s a laugh , – if you count Orivida, Barclay , the illegal GSCB spying’s, run down schools and a whole long list of other incompetence as ‘stable’…

      And don’t even get me started on ‘ economic management ‘ in the middle of a housing crisis .

      L00L !

  11. red-blooded 11
    31 July 2017 at 7:51 am

    1% is margin of error stuff, and you folk all know it. That’s what you’d be saying if the left vote had gone down by that amount.

    All the demands for Labour to go harder left ignores the fact that the Greens are now occupying this space. We don’t need to cannibalise each others’ vote, we need to pull in swinging voters. It looks to me like the recent moves may well be scaring them off. That’s not smart politics – sure, the Green vote may go up, but another 3 years of the Nats is the larger scale outcome. People here deriding the media for FPP thinking ignore the fact that the Greens aren’t growing the left vote (ie, the missing million) but may well be limiting it by sending people back to the Nats or over Winston’s way.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1
      31 July 2017 at 8:01 am

      All the demands for Labour to go harder left ignores the fact that the Greens are now occupying this space.

      This too.

      1% is margin of error stuff

      It looks to me like the recent moves may well be scaring them off.

      Not the best logical progression ever.

      • red-blooded 11.1.1
        31 July 2017 at 3:43 pm

        Read the comment, mate. The “scaring them off” part was in the context of the Labour vote dropping. After all, it’d be fine for the more strongly left voters to migrate to the Greens if the swinging voters in the middle weren’t pt off from swinging Labour’s way. I’m suggesting that there are people who are now more anti-Green and therefore more likely to stick with the Nats.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 11.1.1.1
          31 July 2017 at 4:47 pm

          I’m suggesting that drawing such conclusions from a single poll (with its “margin of error stuff”) is risky at best. Why aren’t you drawing conclusions from the most recent Roy Morgan result?

    • Carolyn_nth 11.2
      31 July 2017 at 8:08 am

      It looks to me like the recent moves may well be scaring them off.

      Usually people say that it takes 6-8 weeks after an event for it to show any impact on the polls.

      It may not be so much about hard or centre left.

      This from Ben Ross:

      Also that Social spend from labour was a managerial policy not a vision policy
      Again #IAmMetiria was a vision play not managerial

      I think NZ politics needs to move from the dominant managerialist mode, to one of conviction politics, based in strong community-focused values.

      Managerialism appeals to a lot of centrist folk though, IMO.

      [comment got caught in spam due to a typo in name, fixed now – weka]

      • Carolyn_nth 11.2.1
        31 July 2017 at 8:59 am

        Thanks, weka.

        I was having trouble posting after following Sacha’s advice to install noscript thing and privacy badger on Firefox – had a period when I had to add a captchalike thingy, then somewhere in the various attempts I typed my name wrong and the reply box kept defaulting to that.

    • Carolyn_nth 11.3
      31 July 2017 at 8:12 am

      It might not be so much centre vs harder left, but one of managerialism vs strong community-based values, conviction politics.

      Though managerialism is the dominant mode of the centre left.

    • weka 11.4
      31 July 2017 at 8:32 am

      I don’t think Labour have to go hard left at this point necessarily (I assume it’s too late for that, e.g. their major policies have already been costed and written). They have some good policies, what they could do is change the framing and positioning and stand up for what’s right.

      Not appearing as broken would help.

  12. Sanctuary 12
    31 July 2017 at 8:07 am

    The most likely outcome of the next election is National doing a deal with NZ First.

    If Labour/Greens/NZ First formed a coalition with a Labour vote of 24-255% it would be lambasted from day one by the MSM as a coalition of the losers and Labour would be attacked for having no mandate. Peters is therefore much more likely to go with National.

    We’ll then see three years of stagnant government where nothing is done because National won’t won’t to promote anything it doesn’t have to from NZ First and it won’t have the numbers to progress it’s own agenda.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1
      31 July 2017 at 8:12 am

      Going back to National would be the death of NZ1st. All that fiery rhetoric ending in a damp squib?

      Doesn’t really change what Labour and the Greens have to do.

      • weka 12.1.1
        31 July 2017 at 8:24 am

        “Doesn’t really change what Labour and the Greens have to do.”

        Agreed.

        Do you think the message (from the general left) should still be a vote for NZF might be a vote for a National govt therefore don’t vote for them?

        • One Anonymous Bloke 12.1.1.1
          31 July 2017 at 8:29 am

          I think people should promote the parties they support, and point out what this government is.

        • Psycho Milt 12.1.1.2
          31 July 2017 at 10:18 am

          Do you think the message (from the general left) should still be a vote for NZF might be a vote for a National govt therefore don’t vote for them?

          I know the question wasn’t addressed to me, but it is a comments thread: I think a vote for NZF is almost certainly a vote for a National government so don’t vote for them.

      • Keith 12.1.2
        31 July 2017 at 8:49 am

        Does Winston care if he ends up in a stagnant Nat government? He will be headed toward his 80’s by then. Baubles of power for Winnie.

        And worse it means we’ll have to endure another god awful Labour Party – elect the wrong leader road show, again.

        • Bearded Git 12.1.2.1
          31 July 2017 at 9:14 am

          More to the point Winnie will want to make one final splash. This will mean changing the government even if it is 26+14+11=51%,. This would give a safe majority. I can’t see Winnie wanting his legacy to be perpetuating this government.

          Incidentally up to now I am not seeing the rise and rise of NZF that the press was salivating over; Winston for PM etc. They seem stuck on 9-11%.

          • Psycho Milt 12.1.2.1.1
            31 July 2017 at 10:16 am

            I can’t see Winnie wanting his legacy to be perpetuating this government.

            I fucking can, especially if perpetuating this government comes with some attractive “baubles of office.” What I can’t see is Peters wanting his legacy to be making Green Party MPs cabinet ministers.

            • Bearded Git 12.1.2.1.1.1
              31 July 2017 at 12:19 pm

              ah but they won’t be cabinet ministers….of course Little will back down on this to become PM.

              The Greens will be outside the coalition supporting only on confidence and supply.

  13. Cinny 13
    31 July 2017 at 8:10 am

    Link for a sound bite of Bills interview on tvnz this morning

    “The Prime Minister says Andrew Little can still take his job at the upcoming election, because of how MMP operates. ”

    https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/watch-its-very-tight-bill-english-remains-coy-election-hopes-despite-labours-shocking-poll-result

  14. Adrian Thornton 14
    31 July 2017 at 9:29 am

    What a total fiasco…imagine the leader of any organization talking about surrendering just before that leader is about to leader their troops into to battle…who the fuck would do that?, why that fuck would you do that?

    And then to top it all off, Little throws the Greens (specifically Metiria ) under the bus during his awful RNZ interview this morning.

    Now lets just stand back and look at what has just happened, Metiria Turei comes out and takes a real hard line stand on a matter of principle, takes the moral high ground and defends it well, where was Labour on this issue, helping to defending Turei’s principled stand?…no, quite like the scared little sheep they are, sat in the corner, quiet, fearing upsetting their perceived centre voting block.

    The result, Greens surge, Labour drop, why…because most people who are not staunch National voters, so probably still have a moral compass, are desperately waiting for a politician to reflect their moral compass, their disdain and disgust at a system that has lost any sense of morality, of fairness.

    So until Labour sheds it’s neoliberal ideology, and becomes solely the political voice of Workers. the youth and the disenfranchised it will continue to die this slow and painful death, hopefully sooner than later.

    Turn labour Left!

    • rhinocrates 14.1
      31 July 2017 at 11:12 am

      What a total fiasco…imagine the leader of any organization talking about surrendering just before that leader is about to leader their troops into to battle…who the fuck would do that?, why that fuck would you do that?

      Unbelievably stupid. In addition to saying in effect that he doesn’t have his heart in the fight – or with the people he’s supposedly standing for – you know, the voters –
      he’s signalling weakness to his own caucus. Nobody was going to ask him to step down eight weeks out from an election – it would be political suicide for his successor – but now his rivals see this as an opportunity to set him up to fail. The message to the caucus is that immediately after the election, the knives can come out again.

      And then to top it all off, Little throws the Greens (specifically Metiria ) under the bus during his awful RNZ interview this morning… where was Labour on this issue, helping to defending Turei’s principled stand?…no, quite like the scared little sheep they are, sat in the corner, quiet, fearing upsetting their perceived centre voting block.

      That’s what’s fucked me off about Labour for years now. Not only are they fairweather friends, they’re foulweather enemies. Struggling in the polls, their first thought is to look for someone to throw under the bus to reassure the right. That was Clark’s mistake with the Foreshore and Seabed Act and Maori and we all know how that turned out. Now, once again its beneficiaries, albeit by proxy this time.

      Cowardly, entitled, inept, self-serving and untrustworthy is Labour’s brand, whatever they care to print on their flyers.

  15. Mike Bond 15
    31 July 2017 at 9:39 am

    Listening to English this morning not gloating over the latest poll, might have changed my mind about him. He was very down to earth and admitted that National need to do more to win the election. This is in contrast to Little who over the past months has called any poll “rouge” or something like that. My feeling is that now admitting that he wanted to stand down was another stupid move from Little as people don’t like losers! But that we are in for a very interesting election is with out doubt!

    • One Anonymous Bloke 15.1
      31 July 2017 at 9:49 am

      In shocking development, right wing person prefers right wing politician. Interesting 😈

  16. Shona 16
    31 July 2017 at 9:41 am

    None of this surprises me. Labour only have themselves to blame. Dull uninteresting besuited managers. Blairites. I know Andrew’s a decent bloke BUT he’s boring. Jacinda is insipid and Grant Robertson is a waffling bag of hot air. Labour you dumped Cunliffe for this lot of dullards your aim at your feet is true! Just why o why do you guys keep doing it?
    Please note the 19% undecided folks! That’s where the fight is!

    • KJT 16.1
      31 July 2017 at 10:14 am

      Pretty much describes my thoughts on Labour.

      The best outcome will be Greens with the majority. But the “born to rule: managers, in Labour, patiently waiting for their turn in the Nat/Lab double act rotating dictatorship, would rather lose than have that happen.

      • garibaldi 16.1.1
        31 July 2017 at 10:39 am

        Well said Shona. Cunliffe was the only one who showed signs of being a Leftie, so they clobbered him.
        There is “something rotten in the state of” Labour’s management.

        • Louis 16.1.1.1
          31 July 2017 at 10:52 am

          I remember the media clobbered Cunliffe and his leadership in a relentless tirade I had never seen before and now I see the media cranking up to do the same with Andrew Little. I also remember the same media’s attack lines against Andrew’s leadership in the lead up to the Roskill by election, they were as now saying it was over for him, who was it that quit and flounced off 2 days later? It wasn’t Andrew Little.

          • YNWA 16.1.1.1.1
            31 July 2017 at 3:15 pm

            And Phil Goff previously, this is the National party Dirty Politics 3.0, stay staunch Andrew and attack on policy…

          • Richard McGrath 16.1.1.1.2
            31 July 2017 at 9:20 pm

            Cunliffe was clobbered by the voters – utterly rejected, if you recall.

    • greywarshark 16.2
      31 July 2017 at 10:51 am

      Shona
      Forget about boring. Forget about celebrities and political show ponies. We should be looking for someone who will present a united front to the nasty problems for NZ that are looming. That’s what politics is supposed to be about. You have been seduced by titillating ideas from the media and clever psychological sellers with ideas how to sway the masses.

      When all people can think about is fun, laughs, good times with their PM they are tits and its an ill world. Less tit and there will be less ill. And let’s get on with the fucking boring work (to you) of being a country and a government that responds and deals to problems not just presents a series of flash cards with full wine glasses, blue swimming pools, sleek models, grand houses, flash cars, to gaze at and drool over like Homer with his donuts.

      • Shona 16.2.1
        31 July 2017 at 11:14 am

        People are not responding to Little enough. Yes he’s a good bloke lets see some fire. He needs to tel the msm to go fuck themselves! And for god’s sake get someone sharp competent and with cojones into finance.Charismatic even you gotta get the masses diverted from their phones!

        • greywarshark 16.2.1.1
          31 July 2017 at 12:24 pm

          They – the geeks – are developing ways to get political promotions onto people’s phones. If every time someone was studying their phone a small image of Little popped up and said Hello I’m Your Man! That would get him into so many heads.

  17. Tautoko Mangō Mata 17
    31 July 2017 at 10:45 am

    FFS, let us not panic. and stick to the issues.

    National have a shocking track record on things that matter-
    Climate Change
    Homelessness
    Affordability of housing
    Water quality
    Public transport
    Child Poverty

    Ed is correct. Our media need to be taken to task. I have copied from comment #1 on Open Mike today written by Ed,

    Here’s a different answer…..
    “I notice you always bring up the polls when I am highlighting the serious issues and injustices facing this country. But if you must, I have recently seen a Roy Morgan poll that has us well over 30% and National on 43, so take your pick. It looks like might have take a look at your methodology.”
    Or, the more direct route….”I only talk about policy not polls. It’s policy that stops people sleeping in cars,not David Farrar phoning up a bunch of people and asking ambiguous leading questions”.
    Or, the blunt Winston Peters approach ”Your polls are rubbish , ours are far more accurate .Sort yourselves out .”
    Get some mongrel, Labour…..show some self respect. Don’t let yourself be pushed around by our disrespectful media….New Zealand needs you to win!!’
    To which I would add.
    “I notice you always bring up personalities when I am highlighting the serious issues and injustices facing this country…”

    Ed, comment #1 https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-31072017/

    2. By the people
    We need to email TV1, newshub, NZH, Stuff and any other media that is spending more time on lazy journalism simply reporting on the polls instead of providing us with a comparison of policies.
    They need to act like the Fourth Estate.

  18. Cynical jester 18
    31 July 2017 at 10:49 am

    Labour won’t ditch the centerism thats killing them. They wouldn’t know a left winh policy if it bit them.
    They’ve sleep walked for the last 3 years ignoring every poll, every international election and frankly the only thing left is for labour to try hold mid 20s (isnt that heart breaking) so we are in a position to govern in 2020 as we’re toast this year, its a write off Andrew probably won’t make it into parliament on current polling and would rather die than ditch the centerist we wont change anything script

  19. Tautoko Mangō Mata 19
    31 July 2017 at 2:43 pm

    We will need ALL of our energy focused on changing the government. We will gain NOTHING by undermining potential coalition partners. In fact the more we slag them off, the more disorganized the left will appear. It’s like the elves fighting the dwarves when they need to be fighting ORCS! IMHO it is better to pick the opposition party that best suits your views, point out weaknesses in the GOVERNMENT, not the other parties, and try to get the non-voters roused up enough to vote. Tell the young people not to bother voting because the oldies will decide their future for them. This could motivate them better than telling them to vote.

    • Sabine 19.1
      31 July 2017 at 2:58 pm

      there seem to be a lot of people here that get their little kicks out of bashing labour mainly for reasons of shit that happen some 37 odd years ago. and these people are supposedly on the left.

      sadly so.

      while we really need to come to grips just how fast our world is changing, and just how many of us can be thrown under the bus if we don’t start acting.

      first things first

      change this fucking do nothing, can’t be bothered showing up to work, private details releasing, foul and vile government.

      i am so looking forward to a government which considers kids living in cars a shameful thing.

    • weka 19.2
      31 July 2017 at 9:24 pm

      +1,000 TMM. Love the Hobbit reference too, very apt.

  20. Ed 20
    31 July 2017 at 4:29 pm

    I read a fantastic comment in the Daily Blog by Grant which is worth repeating here.

    Something interviewers have been doing for some time now, is , as an aprapo of nothing in particular to what is actually being discussed, throw in a “you’re not looking too flash in the latest polls”, or, “you’re sub 30 in the polls .You must be worried”?

    Sometimes, as Lisa Owen did on ‘The Nation’ on Saturday whilst interviewing Willie Jackson, is repeat this over and over again.This technique is a way of sowing the seeds doubt.

    Garner Hosking Ferguson and Espiner do it all the time and it has the effect of making the Labour interviewee try to defend or explain themselves , which in turn makes them look weak.

    Little ,Ardern , Jackson and Lees Galloway have been caught out by this recently and have said something like, “no things are not looking good at the moment and we have more work to do”.

    Aaaaaarrrrgghh,Why would you say that??? .Never give an inch .Never!!
    Where’s the spunk….the fight…? ???

    Here’s a different answer…..
    “I notice you always bring up the the polls when I am highlighting the serious issues and injustices facing this country. But if you must, I have recently seen a Roy Morgan poll that has us well over 30% and National on 43, so take your pick. It looks like might have take a look at your methodology.”

    Or, the more direct route….”I only talk about policy not polls. It’s policy that stops people sleeping in cars,not David Farrar phoning up a bunch of people and asking ambiguous leading questions”.

    Or, the blunt Winston Peters approach”Your polls are rubbish , ours are far more accurate .Sort yourselves out .”

    Get some mongrel Labour…..show some self respect. Don’t let yourself be pushed around by our disrespectful media….New Zealand needs you to win!!’

    Too which I would add.
    “I notice you always bring up personalities when I am highlighting the serious issues and injustices facing this country…”

    If the Labour Party and the Green fight the media on their terms, they are history.

    Metiria is learning that.
    UK Labour has shown the model.

  21. Tautoko Mangō Mata 21
    31 July 2017 at 5:08 pm

    Some light relief- Jonathan Pie https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3bMAL2y3XNU

  22. Philj 22
    31 July 2017 at 5:15 pm

    Yes Ed! The media training for labour is inadequate. They are getting a mauling from the MSM. RNZ is of growing concern.

  23. scotty 23
    31 July 2017 at 5:21 pm

    IMHO,Labour/Green should follow Winston’s lead and ditch the budget responsibility agreement, the media/Nats would hate it, the subsequent squealing would highlight ,Nationals position as being out of step with Lab/Green/NZ1st (the majority). Double down by bringing forward the free tertiary policy.

  24. Tanz 24
    31 July 2017 at 11:18 pm

    Polls don’t lie.

  25. Sigh 25
    1 August 2017 at 12:38 am

    The UMR and Newshub polls just show that the Greens have siphoned off a bit of Labour’s left flank and sent a bunch of Labour votes to NZ First. They haven’t grown the centre-left vote, they’ve actually shrunk it because most people hate benefit fraud.

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