Year of the Long Grind 2

Written By: - Date published: 10:49 am, July 22nd, 2023 - 26 comments
Categories: food, International, labour, national, political parties, Russia, Ukraine - Tags:

There will be no respite for any of us this year and National has no cure for it.

Anyone who thinks a National government will decrease inflation by cutting public spending is fooling themselves. No matter who is in government, the world is going to be unstable and it will continue to destabilise us. Even if United States inflation stabilises, many other factors will continue to hit us.

Some of the scale of public spending here is caused by the multi-billion multi-year post-Gabrielle (etc) flooding recovery. Some of it by higher overall state spending such as health, every year. More of it is pushed by highly demanding public sector union wage demands keeping unemployment very low and wage inflation high.

Nor is there any intervention a National-Act government might entertain that will bring supermarket prices down from their astronomical highs. Because we are a food exporting nation and food supply certainty is low in multiple commodities including grain, prices for foods here as in our exports will drive high.

But most of the uncertainty, as in 2022, is caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

On July 17th the Russian government announced that it was pulling out of a deal to facilitate the export of millions of tons of grain from Ukraine ports. The arrangement had been in place since July 2022 and world prices had stabilised somewhat in that time. The United Nations chief had, back in June, worried that Russia would do this, and they did.

This is going to cause the same chaos as it did previously. The United Nations Secretary-General said: “At a time when the production and availability of food is disrupted by conflict, climate change, energy prices and more, these agreements have helped to reduce food prices by over 23 per cent since March last year.”
He noted that the U.N. World Food Programme shipped 725,000 tonnes to support humanitarian operations in Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa and Yemen, relieving hunger in some of the world’s hardest hit regions.

Russia has also heavily mined some of the richest grain producing areas in the Ukraine. It is using a very high density of mines to defend the territory it still retains because it does not have enough soldiers to otherwise defend the land it has taken.

Russia is also actively destabilising the largest nuclear powered electricity generator in Europe in Zaphhorizia. This will continue to destabilise energy supplies and energy markets across Europe for as long as this plant is under threat. This is deeply energy-price inflationary.

Russia has also actively destabilised European society with millions of Ukrainians, Belorussians and Russians leaving those countries for Germany and Poland.

Whether it is inflationary or not, Russia has also caused one of the largest environmental disasters Ukraine has faced by sabotaging the Kakhova dam, destroying many towns, and cutting most of the water to Crimea and much of the irrigated farmland that depended on that water.

Russia’s sustained invasion and effective stalemate with Ukraine is also viewed as a massive defence threat to Europe, with Finland and shortly Sweden about to join the NATO alliance. This will ultimately redirect higher spending to defence across both NATO members and others such as Japan and Australia, as much of this aligned world prepares for a wider war, a highly protracted one.

There is no sign that either Russia or Ukraine have the capacity to conclude this war inside 2024 nor any political will to even generate an armistice that might freeze actual armed conflict.

With or without the war, energy prices across the United States and Europe are going through the roof this northern hemisphere summer due in part to heat waves.

None of this is the fault of any New Zealand government be they Labour or National.

Global inflation will likely be led downwards by the aggressive rate rise interventions of the United States Reserve Bank, and it appears to be working.

Here, there is no no sign that interest rates are coming down soon, and there ain’t too many developers left who will build something for sale when prices according to Treasury at Budget 2023 will ultimately drop 21% below peak prices hit in November 2021. No one is going to make money because no one will be selling.

Our core protection from the instability of the world is to the 1.4 million New Zealanders who are heavily subsidised through different forms of welfare including NZSuper.

For the rest of us, we do not have the functioning life we used to and there is no going back to it.

So do not alter your vote on the basis that National will make life cheerier. It won’t.

I’d suggest voting for the party that has the record of keeping people and business highly subsidised by the state against the cruelty the world has for us all.

There will be no respite for any of us this year, except maybe the Barbie movie.

This continues to be Year of the Long Grind. The next Parliamentary term is more of the same.

26 comments on “Year of the Long Grind 2 ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. adam 1
    22 July 2023 at 12:12 pm

    Why did you not mention the greed of the corporate class as a major drive of inflation? Because you blamed workers with the whole wage inflation thing. Then it was the Russians fault. But not the class who are driving the bulk of it.

    Come on dude, people here are well read, and most know at least a bit of Marx. I agree national/act have no answer to the mess. If left to run with their far right economic solutions, they will do nothing but empower the corporate class to keep inflation high to maximise profits.

    • SPC 1.1
      22 July 2023 at 7:12 pm

      The best way to manage corporate greed (no second GIB board factory until there was a shortage) … is to reduce cartel power (and or regulate), and to tax windfall profits.

      The second could be effected via a change to corporate tax to a progressive tax system – thus apply a top rate on banks and supermarkets (30-39%) and a lower rate on developing local businesses (20-30%).

      • SPC 1.1.1
        22 July 2023 at 7:50 pm

        Of course the most egregious case of privilege is the class system established via no CGT nor gift duty and restate tax or wealth tax and allowing the leveraging of property ownership to acquire more and more wealth.

        Now our home ownership levels are lower than the UK and falling – and they have CGT and estate tax to disperse some of the property wealth, whereas we do not.

        We may soon be the worst of all OECD nations in terms of equity.

      • adam 1.1.2
        22 July 2023 at 11:01 pm

        See no political will to tax the corporate class.

        AS for equity, to many pull the ladder up's. Just look at those who see act as salvation, they want to burn everyone who did not make it up the ladder.

        • georgecom 1.1.2.1
          23 July 2023 at 1:08 pm

          the economic conditions at present makes a CGT common sense. The right wing has few answers to the present economic or environmental issues facing the nation

  2. Blazer 2
    22 July 2023 at 12:33 pm

    So it's all Russias fault!

    Apart from the blowing up of Nordstream,sanctions and the freezing funds debacle the West effectively torpedoed a negotiated peace settlement to end the conflict.

    Ukraine and Russia explore neutrality plan in peace talks | Financial Times (ft.com)

    Did Boris Johnson scuttle a Russia-Ukraine peace deal – back in APRIL? | Vox Political (voxpoliticalonline.com)

    • SPC 2.1
      22 July 2023 at 7:15 pm

      The conflict between NATO and Russia over Ukraine has an impact on European inflation (energy costs) rather than here anyhow. And otherwise on those dependent on food exports from Ukraine and Russia.

      We are more impacted by the stand-off between the Western economic order and the One belt and road alternative – where they no longer operate as partners in a global supply chain system.

  3. Jono letts 3
    22 July 2023 at 6:51 pm

    The article makes some interesting points about inflation..just the blatant russiaphobia displayed is highly disturbing.

    Many "claims" are just speculation.

    a ) I don't remember usa doing a deal with iraq govt owned oil companies to "keep supplying" customers..they were blatantly Taken over by the invaders.

    B) it is actually bj and the USA who are just as responsible for torpedoing peace talks. See April 2022 for more info.

    C) BIDEN actually actively got involved. He had the choice to Not Intervene. The United Nations was Actually Created (see ww1 and the lead up to it) to diplomatically solve precisely this situation. BIDEN actively undermined the UN.

    D) claims that dams and nuclear power stations are put at risk ….no proof it was Russia.

    E) The Alternate Reality of the West not intervening eg nato..hasn't happened..so blaming everything on Russia is simplistic

    Example: I don't remember putin sending weapons to saddam march20 2003+

    F) I don't remember the u.s invasion of iraq as a massive threat to S.A Egypt or Iran. More attempted mind reading of Putin claimed as an eternal truth.

    G) I don't remember massively long articles on the standard prior to February22 condemning Ukraines bombing of russians.

    H) George w bush destroyed the "rules based order" and "STARTED IT" on Oct 7th 2001?

    You really need to pump your American apologist logic harder on here to get someone like me to change my Neutral position on this conflict..and weapons to zelensky…which most disturbingly..my govt supports.

    • SPC 3.1
      22 July 2023 at 7:42 pm

      FACT CHECK

      a There were no customers of Iraqi oil in 2003, there had been sanctions for over 10 years. And not one of the oil contracts awarded by the elected Iraqi government was given to any USA or USA corporation.

      e Putin provided aid to Syria (NATO was not directly involved in Syria) because nations are allowed to respond to request for aid from nation state governments, as many did when Ukraine was attacked by Russian forces. In the case of Iraq, it was a nation under UN sanctions and inspections for WMD, after being subject to UN action over its invasion of Kuwait.

      g Ukraine did not bomb Russian territories, but areas within Ukraine.

      h No, collective security is part of the rules based order – and has been since the UN was formed. The extension to nations hosting terrorist organisations being culpable if they continue to host them after attacks was not unreasonable. After all, the goal of al Qaeda was to destabilse all governments of Moslem population nations via the claim they were western puppets under the protection of the US security regime.

      It could be better argued that the rules based order ended with the false claim of WMD in Iraq. Though those arguing for the west to be blamed for Russia's decision to war on another nation state have no leg to stand on in that matter.

  4. SPC 4
    22 July 2023 at 7:00 pm

    The good news is that inflation will be down to 4% by the end of this year (already 1.% per quarter) but its further decline into the 1-3% band by the end of 2024 might not be so straight forward.

    The bad news is that the El Nino cycle will mean more rain in the north and east coast next year as well (with impact on some of the recovery of those growing zones from this years floods). This and the National Party policy on housing (increasing rents because National will not constrain migration despite rising unemployment) might leave inflation in the 3-4% zone.

    Thus the OCR might also be sticky (because of continuing migration driven demand despite rising unemployment), so most expect it to remain no lower than 5% in 2024, with no fall to 4% till 2025.

    This is largely because of the end to the era of the global distribution efficiencies placing downward pressure on national inflation rates – partly the West's standoff with China and its one belt and road alternative centre to the world economy, partly the pandemic and related workforce issues (long COVID) and partly the Ukraine war/sanctions.

    Thus we return to the old issue of economic management, and in whose interest.

    National want wages held down and accept higher levels of unemployment as the way to keep the inflation rate lower. Inflation (unless it is in asset values) is something they are against. For them the worst of times is when there is inflation and wages increase to compensate and this lowers the real value of their asset wealth. The working class would find the next three years difficult if they were elected. Those paying mortgages on one home would not notice much if any improvement either. The real gains would be made by those with multiple properties and on higher income tax brackets.

    The major advantage of a Labour government re-election is the full impact of their end of mortgage payment deduction against rent income on existing property – this was of a design to encourage home sales to first home buyers and re-investment in new builds. The policy would eventually lead to a lower value to homes for first home buyers and a reduction in rents. Their major mistake was not applying a two year rent freeze 2022-2024 (this would have been a good complementary policy to the petrol price cut) to increase pressure on these landlords and help tenants with rising costs.

  5. Jono letts 5
    22 July 2023 at 8:22 pm

    Some good responses SPC.

    But the overall points I made are not addressed.

    A) I just used oil as a substitute for grain in

    The article…the point being that the invaders (u.s.a) weren't put in that position because precisely and ironically the war was shorter. Fact check..putin or china for that matter..did not send 100b plus in weapons to that conflict. Overall…you seem to excuse the iraq invasion because they didn't blatantly steal oil..how KIND!

    E) you bring up Syria but that is irrelevant..

    We are talking invasions..did turkey invade Syria?

    G) the point here is the lack of attention given to the conflict prior to feb22..your point is noted..it wasn't Russian soil.

    H( neutrals…like myself…would point more to nato expansion to explain putins invasion…….the Reason Iraq and Afg is brought up is to contrast Weapons to zelensky…..vs ….weapons to taliban or saddam….eg the different response.

    Overall…the entire west's narrative on this

    Conflict is that Neutrality is flawed…when in fact That claim Itself is flawed. 204 countries were Neutral when u.s.a invaded iraq.

    • SPC 5.1
      22 July 2023 at 11:18 pm

      Overall…you seem to excuse the iraq invasion because they didn't blatantly steal oil..how KIND!

      Really, … It could be better argued that the rules based order ended with the false claim of WMD in Iraq.

      E) you bring up Syria but that is irrelevant..

      Not really, Islamists tried to take over the government (aided by foreign fighters – a bit like the Donbass in 2014), and Russia stopped this – at the request of the Syrian government. The question could be raised why there was not more help to Ukraine in 2014.

      H The Taleban ruled without elections and hosted terrorist groups with aims to depose governments, Iraqs one party state regime had invaded Kuwait (and used chemical weapons on their own civilians). Who was on their side?

      As for NATO expansion, does Russian action call into question or validate it? Germany had a policy of Nordstrom *2 and retained 1% of GDP on defence spending in 2021 (when they were required to go to 2% by 2024). If Putin had not attacked Germany and NATO were set on a conflict, it will go down as the most self-destructive move in Russian history. From chess grandmaster to chump.

  6. Jono letts 6
    22 July 2023 at 11:57 pm

    Spc..

    Your responses appreciated.

    But the real question is how do 3rd parties

    React to invasions not involving them.

    The un was set up to solve diplomatically

    Nato…

    https://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/05/opinion/a-fateful-error.html

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Grenada

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Pigs_Invasion

  7. Jono letts 7
    23 July 2023 at 12:04 am

    The Cuban missile crisis revealed in full view to the world how ridiculous u.s.a stance is on international affairs.

    By u.s logic …Kennedys blockade was totally illegal and should have been rammed.

    By u.s logic…mercenaries can travel to Iraq March 03 and kill Americans.

    By u.s logic ..putin should have shoveled weapons in from jan03 and saddam does zoom meetings from his bunker.

    • SPC 7.1
      23 July 2023 at 12:25 am

      Sure. the USA has opposed every left wing government, exceptions only for military allies, regardless of international norm. It is team global American dollar (capitalism rules OK) empire.

      • Patricia Bremner 7.1.1
        23 July 2023 at 6:37 am

        We have to walk the fine line of diplomacy. A small left of centre (US view) country which "could be useful" as a staging post at some point.

        Nanaia Mahuta's skill in dealing with truculent Tainui men is very useful, she is a calm considered presence.

        The leaders of USA China and Russia currently all seem keen on conflict rather than conflict resolution. Dangerous for all.

        Supply lines could again become an issue for us keeping costs and inflation beyond the 1 to 3% target for some time.

        • Sanctuary 7.1.1.1
          23 July 2023 at 10:46 am

          I would have thought the biggest takeout from the Ukraine war is the centrality of collective security buttressed by military alliances to New Zealand's security.

          Why did Putin attack the Ukraine? A big part was because he could. Finland? Once bitten twice shy for Russia with those combative Finns backed up by Sweden. Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania are tiny countries, utterly small fry. But they are in NATO, so they've got a backer with an enormous stick. So dare not attack them. The Ukraine, however, was unallied and alone and, to Putin's way of thinking, easy pickings.

          What that tells me is that in an increasingly dangerous world, the ultimate guarantee of our secuirty is in our alliances with our Five Eyes partners.

          • SPC 7.1.1.1.1
            23 July 2023 at 11:09 am

            Security from our major trading partner?

            If we do not have the option of neutrality (not participating in a warhawk operation as per Iraq, or organised confrontation over Taiwan), is it that useful to us?

            We do not benefit from an arms build up. Nor does anyone from war.

            And we already know the consequence of the western economic order and the one belt and road alternative separating, the dislocation of the global supply chain (increased cost).

            For us and Oz (suppliers) and the USA companies that manufacture there the impasse with China over the two disparate economic spheres developing (the US dollar and SWIFT system global hegemony may soon be ending) has consequences.

            • Sanctuary 7.1.1.1.1.1
              23 July 2023 at 12:03 pm

              I don't think NZer's have any idea how expensive "neutrality" would be. Within an alliance you get to contribute a component of the whole – thus, we don't need a force of expensive fast jets because the Americans and Australians have better and more modern jets that can everything we would need them to do in coalition warfare. Neutral? Bring back jet fighters. But what we do have is four P-8 patrol aircraft which is fully 25% of the combined ANZAC strength in these aircraft. Why? Because it where we choose to contribute to the alliance. In fact, along with the Five Eyes intelligence gathering & our elite special forces, the P-8 is our main cost and contribution to our alliance with some very powerful allies. Expect us to buy at least one more of these aircraft and invest in the long range drones that they are designed to control (the P-8 is capable of being the "mothership" to several large, long range drones like the MQ-4C).

              Ditto with the Navy. we get away with a pair of aging frigates because we are only expected to contribute to second line operations within an alliance. Beecome neutral? We would need five or six major surface warships plus all sorts of other vessels.

              Being part of an alliance saves us a lot of money that we'd otherwise have to waste on defence.

              • SPC …
                23 July 2023 at 12:48 pm

                We are not a member of any alliance now, apart from our security relationship with Oz. That commits them, and via them others, to defend us. It's the only thing they do for us, and in return they steal our workers by offering them more money. This advantages them and thus they have the capacity to defend 7 states, rather than 6.

                We have intell association within Five Eyes. And will probably join AUKUS 2 for the tech development co-op advantages.

                Who says neutrality means being able to defend against others alone? How much money does Costa Rica spend on defence?

                Our security is based on our location, any capacity to arrive here in force would have been confronted long before that stage was reached. It’s therefore somewhat logical our defence forces are developed mindful of that, but that does not necessitate an alliance just the occasional exercise with others.

          • Blazer 7.1.1.1.2
            23 July 2023 at 1:04 pm

            As you think you can read Putin's mind,please enlighten as to who is potentially interested in invading NZ and why?

      • Jono letts 7.1.2
        23 July 2023 at 10:36 am

        When soviet union retracted to Russia in 91..a set of buffer states were created..roughly a distance between Berlin and minsk. As these buffer states defaulted to neutral the demilitarization produced new hope. Russia itself still existed with 17 odd Sq km of resources,nukes for Africa and good relations with many countries on its southern flank such as kazak.uzbek etc. Not to mention neutrals like ind. Mongo.china etc. Yes the balance of power became an imbalance of power…but still a very multipower world. Since putin came in.in99..

        Georgian intven.2008 preceded by Serbia intven 1999.

        Crimea annex 2014 preceded by kosovo 2005.

        The point is…the REACTION..acknowledged and proved the above blurb.

        On February 2022 putin escalates(guilty) but Biden actively intervenes too.. SPREADING a conflict.

        The post above mine talks about diplomacy. Guarantee at no point in blinkens visit to this country this weekend does he say:

        The destiny of Taiwanese people should be decided by the Taiwanese people themselves in a democratic referendum.

        • SPC 7.1.2.1
          23 July 2023 at 10:58 am

          Guarantee at no point in blinkens visit to this country this weekend does he say:

          The destiny of Taiwanese people should be decided by the Taiwanese people themselves in a democratic referendum.

          Are you sure? That is exactly the American position – that they will defend Taiwan from China (despite acknowledging Taiwan is part of China), to ensure Taiwan gives consent to (has veto over) any change in their governing arrangements.

          The diplomatic position would be to facilitate talks over a future autonomy for Taiwan within China, to de-escalate confrontation. The American position encourages a continuance of the status quo (which now includes increases in defence spending in the region).

          This follows American promotion of democracy in Hong Kong – in breach of the 1997 agreement (involved just autonomy till 2047), that led to a crackdown on public protests. And thus renewed focus on the future of Taiwan (with American politicians going there to grandstand for domestic advantage).

          • Jono letts 7.1.2.1.1
            23 July 2023 at 12:02 pm

            You make an excellent point about blinken and Taiwan spc.

            I am looking at it from a military standpoint.

            Your right ..it seems china is just as guilty as the u.s in this regard.

            My question would be better phrased…if Taiwan chose neutrality with no military hardware from either country on its soil…what do Taiwanese choose?

            For example..u.s military on Philippines.okinawa and lower jap islands…who is cornering who?

  8. Bruce 8
    24 July 2023 at 3:34 pm

    Its you tube and not NZ but if this is the situation in the US and we follow. we are in for a rough ride. Perhaps as the interest rate hikes have finished. interest rates have peaked and employment remains full we may avoid the worst of it.

    '15 big box retailers collapsing before our eyes'

    https://youtu.be/MeoiVIBaHYg

  9. Thinker 9
    25 July 2023 at 7:24 am

    "None of this is the fault of any New Zealand government be they Labour or National."

    Except that National is blaming Labour for it and that IS their fault…

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    Lindsay Mitchell writes – Appointed by new Labour PM Jacinda Ardern in 2018, Cindy Kiro headed the Welfare Expert Advisory Group (WEAG) tasked with reviewing and recommending reforms to the welfare system. Kiro had been Children’s Commissioner during Helen Clark’s Labour government but returned to academia subsequently. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Transport Agencies don’t want Harbour Tunnels
    It seems even our transport agencies don’t want Labour’s harbour crossing plans. In August the previous government and Waka Kotahi announced their absurd preferred option the new harbour crossing that at the time was estimated to cost $35-45 billion. It included both road tunnels and a wiggly light rail tunnel ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    3 days ago

  • Webworm Presents: Jurassic Park on 35mm
    Hi,Paying Webworm members such as yourself keep this thing running, so as 2023 draws to close, I wanted to do two things to say a giant, loud “THANKS”. Firstly — I’m giving away 10 Mister Organ blu-rays in New Zealand, and another 10 in America. More details down below.Secondly — ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago

  • The Prime Minister's Dream.
    Yesterday saw the State Opening of Parliament, the Speech from the Throne, and then Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s dream for Aotearoa in his first address. But first the pomp and ceremony, the arrival of the Governor General.Dame Cindy Kiro arrived on the forecourt outside of parliament to a Māori welcome. ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • National’s new MP; the proud part-Maori boy raised in a state house
    Probably not since 1975 have we seen a government take office up against such a wall of protest and complaint. That was highlighted yesterday, the day that the new Parliament was sworn in, with news that King Tuheitia has called a national hui for late January to develop a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago

  • Climate Adam: Battlefield Earth – How War Fuels Climate Catastrophe
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). War, conflict and climate change are tearing apart lives across the world. But these aren't separate harms - they're intricately connected. ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • They do not speak for us, and they do not speak for the future
    These dire woeful and intolerant people have been so determinedly going about their small and petulant business, it’s hard to keep up. At the end of the new government’s first woeful week, Audrey Young took the time to count off its various acts of denigration of Te Ao Māori:Review the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago

  • Another attack on te reo
    The new white supremacist government made attacking te reo a key part of its platform, promising to rename government agencies and force them to "communicate primarily in English" (which they already do). But today they've gone further, by trying to cut the pay of public servants who speak te reo: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • For the record, the Beehive buzz can now be regarded as “official”
    Buzz from the Beehive The biggest buzz we bring you from the Beehive today is that the government’s official website is up and going after being out of action for more than a week. The latest press statement came  from  Education Minister  Eric Stanford, who seized on the 2022 PISA ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • Climate Change: Failed again
    There was another ETS auction this morning. and like all the other ones this year, it failed to clear - meaning that 23 million tons of carbon (15 million ordinary units plus 8 million in the cost containment reserve) went up in smoke. Or rather, they didn't. Being unsold at ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell On The Government’s Assault On Maori
    This isn’t news, but the National-led coalition is mounting a sustained assault on Treaty rights and obligations. Even so, Christopher Luxon has described yesterday’s nationwide protests by Maori as “pretty unfair.” Poor thing. In the NZ Herald, Audrey Young has compiled a useful list of the many, many ways that ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    3 days ago

  • Rising costs hit farmers hard, but  there’s more  positive news  for  them this  week 
    New Zealand’s dairy industry, the mainstay of the country’s export trade, has  been under  pressure  from rising  costs. Down on the  farm, this  has  been  hitting  hard. But there  was more positive news this week,  first   from the latest Fonterra GDT auction where  prices  rose,  and  then from  a  report ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    3 days ago

  • ROB MacCULLOCH:  Newshub and NZ Herald report misleading garbage about ACT’s van Veldon not follo...
    Rob MacCulloch writes –  In their rush to discredit the new government (which our MainStream Media regard as illegitimate and having no right to enact the democratic will of voters) the NZ Herald and Newshub are arguing ACT’s Deputy Leader Brooke van Veldon is not following Treasury advice ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Top 10 for Wednesday, December 6
    Even many young people who smoke support smokefree policies, fitting in with previous research showing the large majority of people who smoke regret starting and most want to quit. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Wednesday, December ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Eleven years of work.
    Well it didn’t take six months, but the leaks have begun. Yes the good ship Coalition has inadvertently released a confidential cabinet paper into the public domain, discussing their axing of Fair Pay Agreements (FPAs).Oops.Just when you were admiring how smoothly things were going for the new government, they’ve had ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Why we're missing out on sharply lower inflation
    A wave of new and higher fees, rates and charges will ripple out over the economy in the next 18 months as mayors, councillors, heads of department and price-setters for utilities such as gas, electricity, water and parking ramp up charges. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Just when most ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • How Did We Get Here?
    Hi,Kiwis — keep the evening of December 22nd free. I have a meetup planned, and will send out an invite over the next day or so. This sounds sort of crazy to write, but today will be Tony Stamp’s final Totally Normal column of 2023. Somehow we’ve made it to ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    4 days ago

  • At a glance – Has the greenhouse effect been falsified?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • New Zealaders  have  high expectations of  new  government:  now let’s see if it can deliver?
    The electorate has high expectations of the  new  government.  The question is: can  it  deliver?    Some  might  say  the  signs are not  promising. Protestors   are  already marching in the streets. The  new  Prime Minister has had  little experience of managing  very diverse politicians  in coalition. The economy he  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    4 days ago

  • You won't believe some of the numbers you have to pull when you're a Finance Minister
    Nicola of Marsden:Yo, normies! We will fix your cost of living worries by giving you a tax cut of 150 dollars. 150! Cash money! Vote National.Various people who can read and count:Actually that's 150 over a fortnight. Not a week, which is how you usually express these things.And actually, it looks ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • Pushback
    When this government came to power, it did so on an explicitly white supremacist platform. Undermining the Waitangi Tribunal, removing Māori representation in local government, over-riding the courts which had tried to make their foreshore and seabed legislation work, eradicating te reo from public life, and ultimately trying to repudiate ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago

  • Defence ministerial meeting meant Collins missed the Maori Party’s mischief-making capers in Parli...
    Buzz from the Beehive Maybe this is not the best time for our Minister of Defence to have gone overseas. Not when the Maori Party is inviting (or should that be inciting?) its followers to join a revolution in a post which promoted its protest plans with a picture of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • Threats of war have been followed by an invitation to join the revolution – now let’s see how th...
     A Maori Party post on Instagram invited party followers to ….  Tangata Whenua, Tangata Tiriti, Join the REVOLUTION! & make a stand!  Nationwide Action Day, All details in tiles swipe to see locations.  • This is our 1st hit out and tomorrow Tuesday the 5th is the opening ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Top 10 for Tuesday, December 4
    The RBNZ governor is citing high net migration and profit-led inflation as factors in the bank’s hawkish stance. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Tuesday, December 5, including:Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says high net migration and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Nicola Willis' 'show me the money' moment
    Willis has accused labour of “economic vandalism’, while Robertson described her comments as a “desperate diversion from somebody who can't make their tax package add up”. There will now be an intense focus on December 20 to see whether her hyperbole is backed up by true surprises. Photo montage: Lynn ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • CRL costs money but also provides huge benefits
    The City Rail Link has been in the headlines a bit recently so I thought I’d look at some of them. First up, yesterday the NZ Herald ran this piece about the ongoing costs of the CRL. Auckland ratepayers will be saddled with an estimated bill of $220 million each ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    5 days ago

  • And I don't want the world to see us.
    Is this the most shambolic government in the history of New Zealand? Given that parliament hasn’t even opened they’ve managed quite a list of achievements to date.The Smokefree debacle trading lives for tax cuts, the Trumpian claims of bribery in the Media, an International award for indifference, and today the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • Cooking the books
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis late yesterday stopped only slightly short of accusing her predecessor Grant Robertson of cooking the books. She complained that the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU), due to be made public on December 20, would show “fiscal cliffs” that would amount to “billions of ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The year was 2015. ‘Uptown Funk’ with Bruno Mars was at the top of the music charts. Jurassic World was the most popular new movie in theaters. And decades of futility in international climate negotiations was about to come to an end in ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Of Parliamentary Oaths and Clive Boonham
    As a heads-up, I am not one of those people who stay awake at night thinking about weird Culture War nonsense. At least so far as the current Maori/Constitutional arrangements go. In fact, I actually consider it the least important issue facing the day to day lives of New ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago

  • Bearing True Allegiance?
    Strong Words: “We do not consent, we do not surrender, we do not cede, we do not submit; we, the indigenous, are rising. We do not buy into the colonial fictions this House is built upon. Te Pāti Māori pledges allegiance to our mokopuna, our whenua, and Te Tiriti o ...
    Bowalley Road
    5 days ago

  • You cannot be serious
    Some days it feels like the only thing to say is: Seriously? No, really. Seriously?OneSomeone has used their health department access to share data about vaccinations and patients, and inform the world that New Zealanders have been dying in their hundreds of thousands from the evil vaccine. This of course is pure ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • A promise kept: govt pulls the plug on Lake Onslow scheme – but this saving of $16bn is denounced...
    Buzz from the Beehive After $21.8 million was spent on investigations, the plug has been pulled on the Lake Onslow pumped-hydro electricity scheme, The scheme –  that technically could have solved New Zealand’s looming energy shortage, according to its champions – was a key part of the defeated Labour government’s ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • CHRIS TROTTER: The Maori Party and Oath of Allegiance
    If those elected to the Māori Seats refuse to take them, then what possible reason could the country have for retaining them?   Chris Trotter writes – Christmas is fast approaching, which, as it does every year, means gearing up for an abstruse general knowledge question. “Who was ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies. Brian Easton writes – The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Climate Change: Fossils
    When the new government promised to allow new offshore oil and gas exploration, they were warned that there would be international criticism and reputational damage. Naturally, they arrogantly denied any possibility that that would happen. And then they finally turned up at COP, to criticism from Palau, and a "fossil ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • GEOFFREY MILLER:  NZ’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    Geoffrey Miller writes – New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the government’s smokefree laws debacle
    The most charitable explanation for National’s behaviour over the smokefree legislation is that they have dutifully fulfilled the wishes of the Big Tobacco lobby and then cast around – incompetently, as it turns out – for excuses that might sell this health policy U-turn to the public. The less charitable ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    6 days ago

  • Top 10 links at 10 am for Monday, December 4
    As Deb Te Kawa writes in an op-ed, the new Government seems to have immediately bought itself fights with just about everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Monday December 4, including:Palau’s President ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Be Honest.
    Let’s begin today by thinking about job interviews.During my career in Software Development I must have interviewed hundreds of people, hired at least a hundred, but few stick in the memory.I remember one guy who was so laid back he was practically horizontal, leaning back in his chair until his ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    6 days ago

  • Auckland rail tunnel the world’s most expensive
    Auckland’s city rail link is the most expensive rail project in the world per km, and the CRL boss has described the cost of infrastructure construction in Aotearoa as a crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The 3.5 km City Rail Link (CRL) tunnel under Auckland’s CBD has cost ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • First big test coming
    The first big test of the new Government’s approach to Treaty matters is likely to be seen in the return of the Resource Management Act. RMA Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed that he intends to introduce legislation to repeal Labour’s recently passed Natural and Built Environments Act and its ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • The Song of Saqua: Volume III
    Time to revisit something I haven’t covered in a while: the D&D campaign, with Saqua the aquatic half-vampire. Last seen in July: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2023/07/27/the-song-of-saqua-volume-ii/ The delay is understandable, once one realises that the interim saw our DM come down with a life-threatening medical situation. They have since survived to make ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    6 days ago

  • Chris Bishop: Smokin’
    Yes. Correct. It was an election result. And now we are the elected government. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    6 days ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 26, 2023 thru Dec 2, 2023. Story of the Week CO2 readings from Mauna Loa show failure to combat climate change Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Affirmative Action.
    Affirmative Action was a key theme at this election, although I don’t recall anyone using those particular words during the campaign.They’re positive words, and the way the topic was talked about was anything but. It certainly wasn’t a campaign of saying that Affirmative Action was a good thing, but that, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • 100 days of something
    It was at the end of the Foxton straights, at the end of 1978, at 100km/h, that someone tried to grab me from behind on my Yamaha.They seemed to be yanking my backpack. My first thought was outrage. My second was: but how? Where have they come from? And my ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago

  • Look who’s stepped up to champion Winston
    There’s no news to be gleaned from the government’s official website today  – it contains nothing more than the message about the site being under maintenance. The time this maintenance job is taking and the costs being incurred have us musing on the government’s commitment to an assault on inflation. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • What's The Story?
    Don’t you sometimes wish they’d just tell the truth? No matter how abhorrent or ugly, just straight up tell us the truth?C’mon guys, what you’re doing is bad enough anyway, pretending you’re not is only adding insult to injury.Instead of all this bollocks about the Smokefree changes being to do ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • The longest of weeks
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Friday Under New Management Week in review, quiz style1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Suggested sessions of EGU24 to submit abstracts to
    Like earlier this year, members from our team will be involved with next year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). The conference will take place on premise in Vienna as well as online from April 14 to 19, 2024. The session catalog has been available since November 1 ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Under New Management
    1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. Under New Management 2. Which of these best describes the 100 days of action announced this week by the new government?a. Petulantb. Simplistic and wrongheaded c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • While we wait patiently, our new Minister of Education is up and going with a 100-day action plan
    Sorry to say, the government’s official website is still out of action. When Point of Order paid its daily visit, the message was the same as it has been for the past week: Site under maintenance Beehive.govt.nz is currently under maintenance. We will be back shortly. Thank you for your ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • Ministers visit Hawke’s Bay to grasp recovery needs
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon joined Cyclone Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell and Transport and Local Government Minister Simeon Brown, to meet leaders of cyclone and flood-affected regions in the Hawke’s Bay. The visit reinforced the coalition Government’s commitment to support the region and better understand its ongoing requirements, Mr Mitchell says.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • New Zealand condemns malicious cyber activity
    New Zealand has joined the UK and other partners in condemning malicious cyber activity conducted by the Russian Government, Minister Responsible for the Government Communications Security Bureau Judith Collins says. The statement follows the UK’s attribution today of malicious cyber activity impacting its domestic democratic institutions and processes, as well ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Disestablishment of Te Pūkenga begins
    The Government has begun the process of disestablishing Te Pūkenga as part of its 100-day plan, Minister for Tertiary Education and Skills Penny Simmonds says.  “I have started putting that plan into action and have met with the chair and chief Executive of Te Pūkenga to advise them of my ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Climate Change Minister to attend COP28 in Dubai
    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts will be leaving for Dubai today to attend COP28, the 28th annual UN climate summit, this week. Simon Watts says he will push for accelerated action towards the goals of the Paris Agreement, deliver New Zealand’s national statement and connect with partner countries, private sector leaders ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • New Zealand to host 2024 Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins yesterday announced New Zealand will host next year’s South Pacific Defence Ministers’ Meeting (SPDMM). “Having just returned from this year’s meeting in Nouméa, I witnessed first-hand the value of meeting with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security and defence matters. I welcome the opportunity to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago

  • Study shows need to remove distractions in class
    The Government is committed to lifting school achievement in the basics and that starts with removing distractions so young people can focus on their learning, Education Minister Erica Stanford says.   The 2022 PISA results released this week found that Kiwi kids ranked 5th in the world for being distracted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Minister sets expectations of Commissioner
    Today I met with Police Commissioner Andrew Coster to set out my expectations, which he has agreed to, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. Under section 16(1) of the Policing Act 2008, the Minister can expect the Police Commissioner to deliver on the Government’s direction and priorities, as now outlined in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • New Zealand needs a strong and stable ETS
    New Zealand needs a strong and stable Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) that is well placed for the future, after emission units failed to sell for the fourth and final auction of the year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  At today’s auction, 15 million New Zealand units (NZUs) – each ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • PISA results show urgent need to teach the basics
    With 2022 PISA results showing a decline in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford is confident that the Coalition Government’s 100-day plan for education will improve outcomes for Kiwi kids.  The 2022 PISA results show a significant decline in the performance of 15-year-old students in maths compared to 2018 and confirms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Collins leaves for Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today departed for New Caledonia to attend the 8th annual South Pacific Defence Ministers’ meeting (SPDMM). “This meeting is an excellent opportunity to meet face-to-face with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security matters and to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to the Pacific,” Judith Collins says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Working for Families gets cost of living boost
    Putting more money in the pockets of hard-working families is a priority of this Coalition Government, starting with an increase to Working for Families, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “We are starting our 100-day plan with a laser focus on bringing down the cost of living, because that is what ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Post-Cabinet press conference
    Most weeks, following Cabinet, the Prime Minister holds a press conference for members of the Parliamentary Press Gallery. This page contains the transcripts from those press conferences, which are supplied by Hansard to the Office of the Prime Minister. It is important to note that the transcripts have not been edited ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme scrapped
    The Government has axed the $16 billion Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme championed by the previous government, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says. “This hugely wasteful project was pouring money down the drain at a time when we need to be reining in spending and focussing on rebuilding the economy and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago

  • NZ welcomes further pause in fighting in Gaza
    New Zealand welcomes the further one-day extension of the pause in fighting, which will allow the delivery of more urgently-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and the release of more hostages, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “The human cost of the conflict is horrific, and New Zealand wants to see the violence ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Condolences on passing of Henry Kissinger
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today expressed on behalf of the New Zealand Government his condolences to the family of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has passed away at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. “While opinions on his legacy are varied, Secretary Kissinger was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Backing our kids to learn the basics
    Every child deserves a world-leading education, and the Coalition Government is making that a priority as part of its 100-day plan. Education Minister Erica Stanford says that will start with banning cellphone use at school and ensuring all primary students spend one hour on reading, writing, and maths each day. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • US Business Summit Speech – Regional stability through trade
    I would like to begin by echoing the Prime Minister’s thanks to the organisers of this Summit, Fran O’Sullivan and the Auckland Business Chamber.  I want to also acknowledge the many leading exporters, sector representatives, diplomats, and other leaders we have joining us in the room. In particular, I would like ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Keynote Address to the United States Business Summit, Auckland
    Good morning. Thank you, Rosemary, for your warm introduction, and to Fran and Simon for this opportunity to make some brief comments about New Zealand’s relationship with the United States.  This is also a chance to acknowledge my colleague, Minister for Trade Todd McClay, Ambassador Tom Udall, Secretary of Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • India New Zealand Business Council Speech, India as a Strategic Priority
    Good morning, tēnā koutou and namaskar. Many thanks, Michael, for your warm welcome. I would like to acknowledge the work of the India New Zealand Business Council in facilitating today’s event and for the Council’s broader work in supporting a coordinated approach for lifting New Zealand-India relations. I want to also ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Coalition Government unveils 100-day plan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has laid out the Coalition Government’s plan for its first 100 days from today. “The last few years have been incredibly tough for so many New Zealanders. People have put their trust in National, ACT and NZ First to steer them towards a better, more prosperous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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