Open mike 23/07/2023

112 comments on “Open mike 23/07/2023 ”

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1. Dennis Frank 1

   23 July 2023 at 7:52 am

   World gets worse: https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/world/494261/climate-records-tumble-leaving-earth-in-uncharted-territory-scientists

   A series of climate records on temperature, ocean heat, and Antarctic sea ice have alarmed scientists who say their speed and timing is unprecedented. Dangerous heatwaves sweeping Europe could break further records, according to the UN. Here are four climate records broken so far this summer – and what they mean.

   The world experienced its hottest day ever recorded in July, breaking the global average temperature record set in 2016.

   Average global temperature topped 17C for the first time, reaching 17.08C on 6 July, according to EU climate monitoring service Copernicus. The average global temperature in June this year was 1.47C above the typical June in the pre-industrial period.

   The average global ocean temperature has smashed records for May, June and July. It is approaching the highest sea surface temperature ever recorded, which was in 2016. But it is extreme heat in the North Atlantic ocean that is particularly alarming scientists. "We've never ever had a marine heatwave in this part of Atlantic. I had not expected this," says Daniela Schmidt, Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol.

   In June, temperatures off the west coast of Ireland were between 4C and 5C above average, which the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration classified as a category 5 heatwave, or "beyond extreme".

   The area covered by sea-ice in the Antarctic is at record lows for July. There is an area around 10 times the size of the UK missing, compared with the 1981-2010 average. Dr Caroline Holmes at the British Antarctic Survey… emphasises it is not just a record being broken – it is being smashed by a long way. "This is nothing like anything we've seen before in July. It's 10 percent lower than the previous low, which is huge." She calls it "another sign that we don't really understand the pace of change".

   Collective intelligence features the bell curve, in which the majority barely comprehend why things happened to them and what's happening now. Comprehension of future trends is forever beyond them. Most people will therefore continue to vote for more of the same to preserve sheeple normalcy and inertia.

   The question of collective survival hinges on our adaptive capacity. Inevitably, democracy is trending away from relevance to survival. Users are realising that election results don't help collective survival prospects. Alternative political movements that network continuously seem the best prospect – they can ride power laws…
   • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1

     23 July 2023 at 9:34 am

     Intelligence ?…..bell curve ?
     • Dennis Frank 1.1.1

       23 July 2023 at 10:54 am

       Normal distribution about a mean – a distant memory from long ago. However a personal bias re time is also likely. Some folk are progressive by nature and always have a futuristic outlook. The bell curve of average intelligence thereby conflates with a temporal axis of orientation: most folks live in the now, some live in the past, others in the future (how they do that is most interesting).
       • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.1.1

         23 July 2023 at 11:10 am

         Hmm. kinda wondered where you were going (you had also connected "sheeple" to your comment).

         As…any linking of Intelligence..and Bell Curve sets off my wondering. As its quite often used as an elitist….if not eugenicist..or for that, racist, tool.

         https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bell_Curve

         https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/voices/the-real-problem-with-charles-murray-and-the-bell-curve/
   • Belladonna 1.2

     23 July 2023 at 11:01 am

     Alternative political movements that network continuously seem the best prospect – they can ride power laws…

     Can you expand on this? I'm not sure what you're getting at here? "power laws"?
     • Dennis Frank 1.2.1

       23 July 2023 at 11:42 am

       The guts is obtainable from an overview of complexity science, network science & neuroscience (neural networks). The gist is that both people and groups can scale up their influence via leverage in network contexts.

       Scientific interest in power-law relations stems partly from the ease with which certain general classes of mechanisms generate them. The demonstration of a power-law relation in some data can point to specific kinds of mechanisms that might underlie the natural phenomenon in question, and can indicate a deep connection with other, seemingly unrelated systems; see also universality above. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law

       The ubiquity of power-law relations in physics is partly due to dimensional constraints, while in complex systems, power laws are often thought to be signatures of hierarchy or of specific stochastic processes.

       A few notable examples of power laws are Pareto's law of income distribution, structural self-similarity of fractals, and scaling laws in biological systems. Research on the origins of power-law relations, and efforts to observe and validate them in the real world, is an active topic of research in many fields of science, including physics, computer science, linguistics, geophysics, neuroscience, systematics, sociology, economics and more.

       A multidisciplinary overview is the basis for a generic theory of power laws but researchers haven't got there yet! Connecting such abstractions to human survival will be situationally-driven for most people: how to use the gnosis as part of a group's collective intelligence. Opinion leaders who forge the conceptual link will drive group survival…
2. Dennis Frank 2

   23 July 2023 at 8:26 am

   Gaia Vince has a four horsemen of the apocalypse update for this century. Using tetradic framing, she identifies the four sources of mass harm during the antropocene era as heat, fire, drought & floods. Her book on consequent mass migration is The Nomad Century.

   So she expects four degrees of global warming eventually. See the prognosis here: https://www.greenfacts.org/en/impacts-global-warming/l-2/index.htm

   The President of the World Bank Group is very clear in its foreword of the report : The explored consequences of an increase of the global earth temperature of 4°C are indeed devastating. Among the foreseen consequences are:

   • the inundation of coastal cities;
   • increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher malnutrition rates; dry regions becoming dryer and wet regions wetter;
   • unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics;
   • substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions;
   • increased frequency of high-intensity tropical cyclones;
   • irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef systems.

   She rules out the less than two degrees warming scenario which the UN has focused on until now. Govts haven't taken the advised actions, so too late for that.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday/audio/2018899508/gaia-vince-mass-climate-migration-is-inevitable

   Everyone wants to maintain their standard of living – or improve it. Individual incentives therefore prevail over collective survival skill development. Folks will suffer.

   She sees a billion people pushed out of their habitat zone for every degree of increase. She said El Nino means the child, because it peaks at christmas. So we’re just in the initial phase of that currently.
   • Belladonna 2.1

     23 July 2023 at 9:25 am

     She seems to be ignoring war – which is the one currently having the greatest impact on food production, cost and instability, internationally.

     Ukraine was a massive food exporter – the infrastructural damage caused by the Russian invasion, not to mention the lives lost – has massively reduced this and had a seriously destabilizing effect on food prices. NZ, for example, doesn't import grain directly from Ukraine, but the shortages have increased prices internationally – including the sources we get our grain from.
     • Dennis Frank 2.1.1

       23 July 2023 at 10:43 am

       True. Perhaps a blind spot in her belief system? One interesting view of it is any collective tendency to war is an expression of us/them, whereas the climate crisis impels a shift into collaboration. She's defaulting towards proactive global coordination – which easily becomes averse to acknowledging the animal spirits side of human nature. Once were warriors, maybe once again.

       Globalising culture remains partial since many retain national or ethnic identity as ruler of their thoughts. Wars happen when males rule. Sustainability will be driven by females (most males unable to comprehend such sophisticated reasoning).
       • Belladonna 2.1.1.1

         23 July 2023 at 10:51 am

         Historically, food crises (which is basically what she's talking about) always results in war (also famine, mass migration, and societal collapse). Sounds pretty similar to the traditional four: Death, Famine, Pestilence & War.
         • Dennis Frank 2.1.1.1.1

           23 July 2023 at 11:00 am

           I agree. We'll get a blend of both the traditional scenario & hers. That tradition from the bible is based on four colours, and illogical since death features as one while being a consequence of all.

           She told Kim that adult nappies out-sell infant nappies in Japan. Also that it’s easier for a robot to become a citizen in Japan than an immigrant human.
           • Belladonna 2.1.1.1.1.1

             23 July 2023 at 11:08 am

             Really – she's talking about the intensifying reasons why food (and living environment) crises might happen. However, these have happened in the past – and the consequences are stark and well known.

             Our 'technology' has been able to smooth them out over the last 150 years, and reduce the impact (I believe that all 20th century famines, for example, were political, rather than environmental); but her argument seems to be that our capacity to do this is diminishing in the face of climate change.
           • SPC 2.1.1.1.1.2

             23 July 2023 at 11:35 am

             War causes famine and disease, and death occurs in old age to those not killed earlier.
             • Belladonna …

               23 July 2023 at 11:57 am

               You could equally well (and just as inaccurately) say that famine causes war and disease.
               Or disease causes famine and war.

               The three can be correlated, but you can't really argue that one causes the others.

               And each can also occur independently:

               There are wars which have not triggered significant incidences of disease or famine (Falklands War). Equally, there have been famines (e.g. Mao's great leap forward) which had no correlation with war. The most recent disease outbreak (Covid-19) – had no associated war or famine.

               Death is an inevitable part of life – it comes to us all….
               • SPC …

                 23 July 2023 at 12:22 pm

                 Historically (as observed in the ME/bible) wars involved imperial siege of cities (not paying tribute) – the consequence of a long siege was famine and disease in the city.

                 That death came in old age – for those not dead in wars, or of famine or disease was also observable.
     • satty 2.1.2

       23 July 2023 at 11:02 am

       Maybe it's the other way around. There might be a war because food production is impacted or will be significantly impacted in the near future. There's a reason Napoleon and Hitler targeted the East ("Kornkammer" – grain storage): It's incredibly fertile land in / around the Ukraine producing huge amounts of grain.

       The Arab spring was mainly caused by food shortages.

       There's clear indication the food production will decrease with higher expected temperatures. And this is not even taking disasters, like bushfires or flooding, more likely with climate change, into account.
       • Belladonna 2.1.2.1

         23 July 2023 at 11:14 am

         There might be war because of food shortages. Indeed, I would say that massive food shortages frequently trigger wars.

         But I don't believe that this has anything to do with the Russia-Ukraine war. Russia has no significant food shortages at the moment, and is systematically destroying the capacity for food production in Ukraine (hardly the action of a power desperate to seize the undamaged capacity).

         The reasons for Russia wanting Ukraine (as well as Poland, Finland and the Baltic States) – have more to do with defendable frontiers – than food production.
       • SPC 2.1.2.2

         23 July 2023 at 11:47 am

         The Pentagon expect more conflict over resources (dams for power vs water for irrigation down stream). But the Ukraine fight is otherwise.

         The world needs greater food reserves and better storage. And probably as much help/aid with flood protection as with renewable energy for some nations.

         This will push up grain prices and reduce use of such feed for stock farming (thus increase meat prices and encourage other protein). And in our case may place greater focus on a protecting fertile land for market gardens and mixed crop farming (so we are self sufficient).
         • Belladonna 2.1.2.2.1

           23 July 2023 at 12:04 pm

           The Pentagon expect more conflict over resources (dams for power vs water for irrigation down stream).

           There's a very interesting incidence of this internally in the US – over the Colorado river.
           Because of the weird way the water allocation legislation works – California can take as much water as it wants from the Colorado (including for amenities – like golf courses) – even if there is actual drought in the other states that the Colorado runs through. Other States (especially the water-poor Southwest) can only draw from the river, once California has taken as much as it wants.

           The US government looks as though it may intervene – since California has resolutely refused to give up water to which it is 'entitled'

           https://calmatters.org/environment/2023/04/colorado-river-water-cuts-california/
           • Hunter Thompson II 2.1.2.2.1.1

             25 July 2023 at 9:58 am

             According to one doco I saw on Youtube, the basic problem for Colorado river basin is that the original water allocation agreement was drawn up between the states when the water flow in the river was very high.

             So water was granted on the basis of an extreme situation that did not represent normal flow rates, hence the over-allocation. Expansion of California's population didn't help, of course, nor does declining snow fall.

             I understand that these days, the river doesn't even reach the sea.

             NZ has an equally poor record, with Canterbury lowland rivers like the Hinds sucked dry by irrigators.
         • Belladonna 2.1.2.2.2

           23 July 2023 at 12:19 pm

           NZ is pretty much already self-sufficient for market gardens (unless you mean very local self-sufficiency – which is probably not attainable – you'll never grow cherries in Auckland). Fresh food imports are largely over price (cheaper to grow bananas in the Philippines than NZ), or extending the season (imported strawberries from Oz), or niche things that we just don't have the climate to grow (dates).

           There is little alternative to grain as stock feed for chickens (unless you want to replicate the current egg-price increases on a vast scale). And, I understand it's very little used as supplementary feed for beef or lamb in NZ (unlike the US, with their grain fattening lots).

           If NZ (as a country) wants to be self-sufficient in food production – then this needs to be strongly led by the government (almost certainly requiring tariffs on imported products) – because, otherwise, it's not cost-effective for farmers – and they won't do it.

           I really don't see international grain prices having any major impact on beef farming in the US. Grain is already heavily subsidised by the government – so there is unlikely to be an impact on the meat industry (they have the whip hand, and if production isn't directed toward what makes the US population happy – they'll reduce the subsidies).

           For the rest of the world, meat may well become more of a luxury product – as it was in the past. [I set aside the SF proposals for vat-produced meat until we see what the quality, safety and environmental impact, actually is]
           • SPC 2.1.2.2.2.1

             23 July 2023 at 12:29 pm

             We import wheat from Oz, if they put up the price because of the world market it becomes profitable to grow here – rather than pay the world price. Thus a return to mixed crop farming.

             Those in the produce supply market say we need to return to more local market gardens to reduce the risk from floods in the areas that have taken over the nationwide market in past decades.

             Doing neither means food cost problems because of climate change/GW.
             • Belladonna …

               23 July 2023 at 1:19 pm

               Only if it is more profitable for the NZ farmers (who could be growing wheat) to grow wheat instead of another crop.

               In any case, the price to consumers will still go up. NZ wheat sold in NZ is sold at the same 'international' price (we see this all the time with dairy price increases).

               If the retailers (supermarkets, etc.) are prepared to pay for the additional cost for growing in multiple locations in order to ensure continuity of supply – then regional market gardening may well be a thing. The issue is that some areas of the country are better environmentally suited to growing some crops, than others are.

               For example – corn grown in Gisborne is more economic (cheaper to grow, better quality, longer growing season) than corn grown in Invercargill. Will the retailers be prepared to pay a higher price for poorer quality produce from Invercargill – when there is *not* an issue with the Gisborne supply? [Example, simply for illustration – I have no personal knowledge of the economics of corn growing in either locale]

               I think that it's doubtful. Especially since there is no downside to the retailer *not* being able to supply a product (they simply blame floods in Gisborne for the higher prices or lack of availability).

               And we still get food cost issues – unless there is a regulatory environment that prevents it (i.e. restricts imports, supports local supply)
   • Phillip ure 2.2

     23 July 2023 at 10:04 am

     Is it timely to again mention that my annual pollution creation is north of 4 tonne per annum..

     The oecd average is about 18 tonne per annum..

     The new Zealand average is north of 24 tonne…

     The reasons for this being I live on a plant-based diet…and have done so for decades…

     So…do we just continue to handwring/finger-point…?

     To blame external circumstances..?

     Or do we make the most meaningful change possible in our personal lives..

     And eschew the practices of eating animals…and their bye-products..?

     To do any less…and to pretend to care about your role in cooking the planet…is just bullshit-on-a-stick…

     How can it not be..?

     And the long term personal benefits from ceasing to eat animal flesh/fat/bye-products are undeniable..

     By any measure I am old…but I am fit/healthy…I awake every morning feeling great..(no alcohol..)

     This morning I curled some dumbbells..while my tea steeped…then took a very large dog..for a walk long enough to exhaust him…

     So…y'know..!
     • tWiggle 2.2.1

       23 July 2023 at 11:25 am

       The guardian makes your case for vegan climate footprint, Phillip.
       • Phillip ure 2.2.1.1

         23 July 2023 at 11:41 am

         That is a very good link…

         It says what I am saying..

         ..it just does it much better..

         How much longer can so many just ignore this oh so inconvenient/undeniable truth..?

         It is in everyone's self-interest ..to do what this guardian piece makes so clear…so stark..

         And no…recycling plastic and owning a leaf.. doesn't come within a bulls roar of doing what needs to be done…

         This group/mass denial must stop..!

         And need I add that we are really running out of time .?

         Please..!..read that link provided by wiggle..!
   • gsays 2.3

     23 July 2023 at 10:43 am

     With the greatest respect to the authors and researchers, they have left out the greatest thing to overcome: convenience.

     We all know the supermarkets sell food that is loaded with embedded diesel miles. Food that is out of season, food from growers that have had their returns and conditions eroded, food and produce that is earning them obscene profits.

     And yet… we keep filing through their doors, like the undead, in the typical zombie movie returning to the places that are familiar to them. Or ordering 'on-line', all in the name of convenience.

     An anecdote from a chum who was staying with family in Ohakune. Some of the locals use Countdown in Feilding coz the local (only) New World is too dear. That is approx 1hr 20mins away.
     • Dennis Frank 2.3.1

       23 July 2023 at 10:49 am

       Interesting perspective. I shop @ 3 countdowns, paknsave & new world here in NP, depending what I need at the time. NW are higher quality here but not that much more expensive. Perhaps the folk in Ohakune can't do the maths well? Cost of travel, I mean. Total time @ 2 hrs 40 mins converted to labour cost also enters in.
       • Belladonna 2.3.1.1

         23 July 2023 at 10:56 am

         They may, of course, be combining the food shop with other reasons to visit the nearest 'big' town (bank trips, doctors visits, general clothes shopping, family visits, etc.).

         If you are already going to Feilding – then it might make sense to do a cheaper food shop there, as well as the main reason for the trip.
         • gsays 2.3.1.1.1

           23 July 2023 at 12:35 pm

           You are right about the several jobs, one trip. However this is just shopping. Delivered.

           They are reasonably well tuned into the issues humanity faces, one is a natural healer/homeopath.

           In my friends example, the order wasn't near complete, which he could roll with but the driver (who sub-contracts to Countdown) gave him a bit of attitude – The order being incomplete "…is not my problem…" so he put the groceries back in the van. 'It is your problem now'.
           • Dennis Frank 2.3.1.1.1.1

             23 July 2023 at 2:08 pm

             You could try mentioning to your friends that growing kumera is easy here in NP, so perhaps it's possible there too. I always thought it needed a sub-tropical climate but it ain't so. I've been digging up some down my backyard the past week or two, got enough big ones to give several away to neighbours.

             And that was just off one sprout that went in last spring. Got another dozen or so to dig up yet. At $10/kg that's more than $100 potential value. The tops die slow in winter – leaves that remain go pale yellow with stunted growth – but some don't die so you get partial then full regrowth the following year. I've been learning the resilience technique by experiment.

             They'd have a lower average temperature due to mountain proximity despite similar latitude, and they are frost-averse. For a permaculturist, that means you have to design a microclimate for growth to be optimised (maximising daily sun, wind & frost protection systems). Glass-covered enclosures with a wee bit of side ventilation is what I'd go for.
     • SPC 2.3.2

       23 July 2023 at 11:54 am

       Someone in Ohakune should buy a truck and on-sell to locals. Competition and all that.
       • gsays 2.3.2.1

         23 July 2023 at 12:39 pm

         Robert and Robin Guyton's example of the (I think) electric van doing a Riverton district loop picking up and dropping off fresh produce would be more the go.

         The solutions are local, no political party has the courage or imagination to enable the solutions we need. Not one that seeks re-election anyhow.
         • SPC 2.3.2.1.1

           23 July 2023 at 1:04 pm

           They could do that with local produce now (in season) at a market. Maybe add milk if a local farmer was involved. And delivery for those unable to pick up. But there would still be a need to get the indoor grown crops out of season from elsewhere and the longer life shelf goods into Ohakune to drive down the local supermarket prices with competition.
     • bwaghorn 2.3.3

       23 July 2023 at 2:38 pm

       I believe countdown does delivery up here,

       And as for undead zombies , I'm running a large farm and raising a collage kid I'm bust and often tired, so I ain't going to be made to feel bad for getting convenience food from the nearest supermarket,

       There is know way that a round trip to feilding or whanganui is cheaper than buying local.
   • tWiggins 2.4

     23 July 2023 at 2:15 pm

     Or maybe the author is sticking to climate knowables: the heat danger zones/vanishing shorelines that are predicted to become uninhabitable. Political outcomes, hence conflicts are less 'predictable', especially given the shifting global political framework.
     • weka 2.4.1

       23 July 2023 at 2:20 pm

       please fix your username
   • Michael P 2.5

     23 July 2023 at 4:37 pm

     Do what dates is she using for the Anthropocene era? Because it's not actually a thing yet I think because there is still discussion around dates.

     She left out cold which kills and has killed more people each year than heat, fire, flood and drought combined.

     Tetradic framing is used in general relativity to describe a model of spacetime so I'm not sure how she might have used it in her study. (or does she mean she just used different colors to represent heat, fire, drought and flood then displayed them on a round graph?)

     She may predict 4 degrees but that is the worst case scenario and is based upon things remaining as they are now with nothing at all done to mitigate anthropogenic global warming.
     • Dennis Frank 2.5.1

       23 July 2023 at 7:45 pm

       Nobody dates the anthropocene that I've noticed – it's just a loose framing of the era we entered due to global warming. Interesting point re cold – haven't seen stats yet.

       Tetradic framing derives from ancient Greek usage (tetrad = 4 items in a set). I presume your reference to relativity refers to the dimensions being four. Her usage pertains to the four sources of mass harm she expects to result from global warming. Nothing unusual there since they've been in global headlines quite often.

       Re mitigation, we still don't have enough of that happening globally to discount her four degrees as too alarmist. The inertial effect of global warming is the real threat – it's already in the time pipeline – and will happen regardless. Methane clathrates, for instance:

       The clathrate gun hypothesis is a proposed explanation for the periods of rapid warming during the Quaternary. The idea is that changes in fluxes in upper intermediate waters in the ocean caused temperature fluctuations that alternately accumulated and occasionally released methane clathrate on upper continental slopes. This would have had an immediate impact on the global temperature, as methane is a much more powerful greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide.

       Despite its atmospheric lifetime of around 12 years, methane's global warming potential is 72 times greater than that of carbon dioxide over 20 years, and 25 times over 100 years (33 when accounting for aerosol interactions). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate
3. Hunter Thompson II 3

   23 July 2023 at 9:13 am

   There are just too many humans on the planet.

   (8 billion and counting)
   • Belladonna 3.1

     23 July 2023 at 9:39 am

     Humans are already reducing in numbers – most countries are not replacing their population (fewer than 2 children per woman) – and some are in demographic freefall.

     Look at the demographics of China, for example – despite the one-child policy being rescinded – the number of children born each year continues to decline. And the population is estimated to actually start declining this year (that’s with the pretty optimistic UN figures – many other researchers note the poor quality of the official data – and think the peak was reached some time ago). [Note, China is no longer the most populous country in the world, India is]

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_China

     This is probably not a good thing – either in economic or infrastructure terms. Most countries are going to end up with a relatively small working population supporting a much higher retired population. And, few are doing any serious planning about it.

     New Zealand is one of the very few countries which is not following this trend – our population demographic is pretty stable in the 0-20 age group – and our largest population tranche is at 30, not 60 (despite the often-reiterated concern over the boomers retiring). Most of our population increase comes from immigration.

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_New_Zealand
     • ianmac 3.1.1

       23 July 2023 at 10:05 am

       Increasing infertility seems to be a major cause of falling population rates. Too much foreign matter in our diets it seems.
       • Belladonna 3.1.1.1

         23 July 2023 at 10:08 am

         Evidence?
         • The Chairman 3.1.1.1.1

           23 July 2023 at 11:05 am

           This link below is a good read re ageing in NZ and has info regarding infertility.

           https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/300730132/welcome-to-the-hyperageing-nation-that-is-new-zealand
           • Belladonna 3.1.1.1.1.1

             23 July 2023 at 11:19 am

             This seems to be about the fact that retirement communities (towns which disproportionately attract older people) – exist – and the demographic consequences.

             There is nothing about infertility.
             • The Chairman …

               23 July 2023 at 12:07 pm

               It's about hyper-ageing and its impact on our whole nation and not just retirement communities.

               Sorry, it only notes declining fertility rates.

               This one (link) covers infertility.

               https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20230327-how-pollution-is-causing-a-male-fertility-crisis#:~:text=In%20particular%2C%20research%20suggests%20that,rates%20of%20erectile%20dysfunction%20and
               • Belladonna …

                 23 July 2023 at 12:38 pm

                 But no evidence that this issue is driving down populations.

                 From the article you link to:

                 The reasons for this decline in birth rates include positive developments, such as women's greater financial independence and control over their reproductive health. On the other hand, in countries with low fertility rates, many couples would like to have more children than they do, research shows, but they may hold off due to social and economic reasons, such as a lack of support for families.

                 It goes on to claim

                 At the same time, there may also be a decline in a different kind of fertility

                 There is a difference in population level data (where the causes of restriction on family size are well known) – and individual data (where personal infertility may well have an impact).

                 The article is full of highly speculative possibilities – and rather than hard facts. You might equally well argue that cancer treatment reduces fertility (it does)
       • Phillip ure 3.1.1.2

         23 July 2023 at 11:59 am

         The over-population handwring is b.s..

         as others have noted..birthrates are actually dropping..

         And a major cause of the drop in birthrate in africa has to be women getting mob phones/access to internet//contraception knowledge ..
     • William 3.1.2

       23 July 2023 at 10:18 am

       "Humans are already reducing in numbers"

       Not on the planet I live on!

       The total population is still increasing

       The rate of growth is reducing, but, "The UN projected population to keep growing, and estimates have put the total population at 8.6 billion by mid-2030, 9.8 billion by mid-2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100."
       • Belladonna 3.1.2.1

         23 July 2023 at 10:35 am

         The population continues to increase, because people are living longer.

         The point was that the switch has already happened (fewer children being born than are needed to sustain the current levels of population). And it's not just in the 'west' – but in every urbanizing country as well (the correlation between increased urbanization/industrialization and population size is well known). Many countries have already tipped over into actual population decline (including China).

         Unless you're proposing mandatory euthanasia of everyone over 65 (the non-productive class); large-scale war (the effect of the war in Ukraine has already had stark implications for Russian demographics; one-child policies on populous countries (try it on India and see how far you get), or mass starvation (we may get there, but it's hardly something to be wished for) – what alternatives are you proposing to make this population trend change more quickly?
         • William 3.1.2.1.1

           23 July 2023 at 12:25 pm

           Previously you said

           "Humans are already reducing in numbers"

           Now you say

           "The population continues to increase"

           Hopefully you can see the contradiction there.

           Then in this reply you refer to

           "everyone over 65 (the non-productive class);"

           whereas in another reply at 10:39 (four minutes later) you state

           "I work in an industry where, so long as your brain continues to function, you're a highly valued employee. I've had people over 80 on my team (working part-time – work/life balance)."

           Another contradiction.

           I'm making no proposals regarding population trends. The time lag between changes in birth rate & actual population is so long that it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change.
           • Belladonna 3.1.2.1.1.1

             23 July 2023 at 12:50 pm

             So. No ideas. Just generic hand-wringing.

             What personal action are you taking to resolve the "urgent changes [in population] we need to make to minimise climate change"?

             What political action do you advocate to resolve this issue?

             If the answer to both is "none" – then your entire post is pointless.

             The apparent-to-you contraction was in discussion to the floated possibility that you might consider that post 65 euthanasia was a solution. Another commented suggested that retirement at 65 was not sensible in all cases – and I agreed.

             Or are you advocating that the euthanasia criteria should be based on assessed productivity to society?
             • William …

               23 July 2023 at 3:01 pm

               Whoa. You do NOT add words to a direct quote from someone else, even if placed in brackets That is completely unethical.

               The point of my post was to correct errors in your post(s). I observe you don't seem to handle being corrected at all well.

               At no stage did I mention euthanasia, that came entirely from your mind.

               It is quite clear when I said "I'm making no proposals regarding population trends . . . it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change." that it's not something to be considered.

               I'm not sure why I'm bothering to answer, but at over 65, I'm a bit past taking personal action to resolve the population problem you perceive (although the vasectomy really achieved that thirty odd years ago). And as far as climate change measures, walking, cycling, public transport, zero overseas travel, all purchasing decisions carefully considered etc.

               Hopefully you get the gist, & will cease suggesting motives and making judgement about people you know nothing about.
               • Belladonna …

                 23 July 2023 at 4:42 pm

                 "The time lag between changes in birth rate & actual population is so long that it's of no use in achieving the urgent changes we need to make to minimise climate change."

                 Your quote in full.

                 My apologies, since we were discussing population sizes and trends, I made the assumption that you were referring to action needed in relation to population size.

                 I now see that you appear to be saying there is nothing we can do about population – and need to take alternative action.

                 I agree. The OP (apparently) did not.

                 "There are just too many humans on the planet."
     • bwaghorn 3.1.3

       23 July 2023 at 10:23 am

       "supporting a much higher retired population

       Maybe we should reinvent retirement, people getting to 65 and then becoming a dtag on society is dumb, people physical and mental health is better if the ar busy and contributing.
       • Belladonna 3.1.3.1

         23 July 2023 at 10:39 am

         You'll find a lot of argument against increasing the retirement age, here, on TS. 🙂

         I work in an industry where, so long as your brain continues to function, you're a highly valued employee. I've had people over 80 on my team (working part-time – work/life balance).
         • Visubversa 3.1.3.1.1

           23 July 2023 at 12:21 pm

           I worked full time until I was 66. Then my employer did some stupid stuff which annoyed me so I "retired". I had things to do which I did, and then I worked part time for 2 years after that because a friend rang in a panic because he had taken on a job he could not complete in time and was prepared to pay me quite a lot of $$$ to get it done. This led to the next job etc. Finally, I sent the last one back to him and said that I could not support it and neither would the authority it was to go to. I had a bit of surgery after that and have used it as an excuse to not work again.
         • bwaghorn 3.1.3.1.2

           23 July 2023 at 4:15 pm

           Reinventing retirement is vastly different to just moving the goal posts,

           That just punishing the physical workers and the burnt out, ,

           Funding a system to keep people working through shifting to easier work ,

           Just changing the cultural mindset from one of knocking off and becoming a consumer only is a start.

           Nothing makes one find health problems like being under utilized and feeling mentally low,
       • KJT 3.1.3.2

         23 July 2023 at 12:06 pm

         Not the best idea.

         So much of our social capital and productivity comes from people who are on a pension.

         Looking after Grandkids so that parents can work, is just one example.

         The problem with decreasing numbers of workers is way overhyped. The real issue is so much of the income from their productivity is captured by parasitic capital, and removed from the community. We don't need the number of people working the hours they currently do. Bullshit jobs
         Technology is rapidly increasing individual worker productivity. For example two workers milking 800 cows in a few hours. The issue is those two workers pay does not reflect that. It is lower than 40 years ago.

         Workers who are on realistic wages reflecting their actual contribution, and the wealthy having to contribute back some of the rents they are extracting, can easily support dependants, as they did in the 60's.

         I also note that the enthusiasm for increasing the retirement age, comes solely from those with comfortable desk jobs who are lucky enough to be in good health.
     • SPC 3.1.4

       23 July 2023 at 12:07 pm

       The West, Japan, Korea and China do not represent the totality of the worlds demographics.

       And the Five Eyes nations are growing their populations via migration all the same.

       The forecast increase from 8 to 11B forecast during the century shows total birthrate is being maintained globally. However the impact of long COVID and global warming impact on lifespans is not a known (spread of disease impacting on food production and post flood disease and impact of heat on workers and old people).
       • Belladonna 3.1.4.1

         23 July 2023 at 1:07 pm

         Population growth via migration is 'neutral' in terms of the world's population: for there to be an increase of one person in Country A by migration, there has to be a decrease in Country B.

         Please provide evidence that the birthrate is being maintained globally.

         I, too, agree that the UN population forecasts are overly optimistic (or pessimistic – depending on whether you see population as a good or bad thing) – and don't take wars, famines, disasters, etc. into account.
         • SPC 3.1.4.1.1

           23 July 2023 at 1:29 pm

           Please provide evidence that the birthrate is being maintained globally.

           I will, if you look for evidence to support your own claim

           Humans are already reducing in numbers

           One wonders whose supporting evidence is compelling.
           • Belladonna 3.1.4.1.1.1

             23 July 2023 at 1:44 pm

             Here you go

             China population numbers in (absolute) decline in 2023.

             https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/history-and-civilisation/2023/03/chinas-population-is-shrinking-it-faces-a-perilous-future

             So – evidence that the birthrate is being maintained globally?
             • SPC …

               23 July 2023 at 2:09 pm

               I realise there are arguements within Chinese tradition to refute this, but being Han Chinese does not define being human. I am sure you do realise that the Indian population growth is larger than any Chinese decline for the foreseeable future.

               I will refer to a debate with the other red who has retired (not dington but logix).

               https://thestandard.org.nz/richard-heinberg-the-final-doubling/#comment-1926429

               Birth changes 1950-2021

               Asian 57-67M per annum.

               Africa 11-45M per annum.

               Rest 24-21M per annum.
               • Belladonna …

                 23 July 2023 at 4:34 pm

                 Perhaps you could look at the figures between (say) 2019 and 2023. Or possibly the birth rate data for the top 10 most populous countries.
                 No one is arguing that the world population hasn't increased since 1950.

                 Straw man…..

                 I've provided a link showing that China (still around 1/4 of the world's population) has *decreased* in absolute terms in 2023.

                 India has indeed overtaken China in as the most populous country in the world. However, their birth rate is at 1.6 and continuing to decline.

                 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

                 I'm still not seeing any evidence that the *birth rate* (you know that more than 2 children per woman, replacement figure) – is continuing to "be maintained, globally".

                 Any increasing population figures are as a result of people living longer – not of increasing numbers of children being born.
                 • Drowsy M. Kram …

                   23 July 2023 at 6:24 pm

                   I'm still not seeing any evidence that the *birth rate* (you know that more than 2 children per woman, replacement figure) – is continuing to "be maintained, globally".

                   Might that be a matter of perception versus reality?

                   Global fertility has collapsed, with profound economic consequences [1 June 2023]
                   In 2000 the world’s fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, comfortably above the “replacement rate” of 2.1, at which a population is stable. Today it is 2.3 and falling.

                   That article warns about "the world's dire demographic trajectory", but The Economist is typically more focused on economic consequences, rather than the commonsense idea that "All our environmental problems become easier to solve with fewer people, and harder – and ultimately impossible – to solve with ever more people." – Sir David Attenborough

                   Overall fertility is projected to fall to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.

                   Ah, so about one generation until the global human population begins to stabilise. Don't panic – our species won't go extinct any time soon.

                   Spaceship Earth is currently sustaining an overshoot civilisation – with any luck humans will prove smarter than bacteria in a petri dish, and seize opportunities to decrease their numbers naturally and gradually.

                   Consider just two adaptive behaviors that Homo sapiens shares with all other species. Humans have an innate propensity to consume available resources – often to depletion – and a parallel drive to invade and colonize all accessible habitats.
                   https://greattransition.org/gti-forum/population-rees
                 • SPC …

                   23 July 2023 at 8:36 pm

                   Straw man…..

                   You do not seem to know the meaning of the term.

                   The figures explained that the Asian birth numbers continued to increase despite what happened within China (one child policy and all that).

                   The figures also explained the increasing extent between 1950-2021 to which global birth increase was predicated on Africa.

                   You know why slowing rates elsewhere (in either the west, or China) did not result in a global fall.

                   I'm still not seeing any evidence that the *birth rate* (you know that more than 2 children per woman, replacement figure) – is continuing to "be maintained, globally".

                   That just demonstrates a failure to pay attention to what (the where) was driving the global increase in births.
                   • Belladonna …

                     23 July 2023 at 10:50 pm

                     And your explanation of the absolute decrease in the population in China in 2023 (and, according to many commentators, actually quite a bit earlier) – is?

                     The Chinese and Asian birth numbers have been steadily dropping since 1970. If you have a birth rate of less than 2, then the birth numbers mathematically cannot be increasing. The population increased due to people living longer. Fewer people were being born (especially in China), but the people already here were not dying off as quickly.

                     Have a look at this chart – showing the fertility rate in China during the 20th century. It dropped below 2 in the mid-90s (and those the the official figures – so likely to be on the high side)

                     https://www.statista.com/statistics/1033738/fertility-rate-china-1930-2020/

                     Here's an explanation of why the official Chinese figures are likely to be inflated.

                     https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/
       • Michael P 3.1.4.2

         23 July 2023 at 5:18 pm

         When you say "maintained globally" it doesn't really represent what's happening as the countries with fertilty rates high enough to grow there population are pretty much all in Africa and the Middle East. Even India and Indonesia are rapidly closing in on 2.1 rate.

         Immigration only works while there are immigrants available. If we boost our population through immigration from any country with a less than 2.1 rate then it doesn't help and if all the countries with declining birth rates import all of the new people from africa and the Middle East then how are they supposed to survive.

         Some estimates have for example China losing half of it's population within the next 5 decades. That is really scary because it means compete economic collapse for China and assuming they are aware of what's happening to their country you have to wonder how they will respond? There will be 2 choices, China ceases to exist, or………?
         • Belladonna 3.1.4.2.1

           23 July 2023 at 6:57 pm

           Russia is much the same – demographic collapse (dropping total population, as well as a birth rate well under 2) exacerbated by losses during the Ukraine war (not only deaths – but especially flight of young men, from the country).

           https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/03/04/russias-population-nightmare-is-going-to-get-even-worse
           • SPC 3.1.4.2.1.1

             23 July 2023 at 8:27 pm

             Russia's population decline can be survived, it's a bit like the loss of population in Enzed provincial areas post 1980's economic change.

             It's not a nation where the taxpayer base is the working population, but its economic resources.

             And where there is continuing profitable economic activity migrant workers can be brought in (or made a national job training priority).
             • Belladonna …

               23 July 2023 at 10:10 pm

               I understand that Russia's extractive industry (gas, etc) is entirely dependent on foreign expertise now. Many of whom have left the country – and are unlikely to return (the risks outweigh the returns)

               https://www.wsj.com/articles/expats-quietly-leave-russia-over-financial-and-safety-worries-11646736757

               The IT industry is basically hollowed out – Russia is admitting to 10% of the workers having left – the total is almost certainly considerably higher.

               https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/04/04/1070352/ukraine-war-russia-tech-industry-yandex-skolkovo/
               • SPC …

                 23 July 2023 at 10:39 pm

                 The current situation is not going to last decades.
                 • Belladonna …

                   23 July 2023 at 10:51 pm

                   Your crystal ball is clearly more powerful than mine. I wouldn't care to place any bets on the length of the current war.
                   • SPC …

                     23 July 2023 at 11:28 pm

                     The fighting will not last decades, and that call requires no more than common sense.
         • SPC 3.1.4.2.2

           23 July 2023 at 8:14 pm

           When you say maintained globally; it doesnt really represent whats happening as the countries with fertilty rates high enough to grow there population are pretty much all in Africa and the Middle East. Even India and Indonesia are rapidly closing in on 2.1 rate.

           Yes it does, as those areas are part of the world.

           Immigration only works while there are immigrants available

           There will be billions of people looking to migrate to western nations for decades to come. Economic reasons to new ones, such as CC/GW.

           The nature of the migrants will change, AI and robot tech etc.

           Some estimates have for example China losing half of it's population within the next 5 decades. That is really scary because it means compete economic collapse for China and assuming they are aware of what's happening to their country you have to wonder how they will respond? There will be 2 choices, China ceases to exist, or………?

           China will no more suffer economic collapse than Japan. Japan will profit from helping them out.
           • Belladonna 3.1.4.2.2.1

             23 July 2023 at 9:55 pm

             "China will no more suffer economic collapse than Japan. Japan will profit from helping them out."

             That statement indicates you have no concept of the divide between these two countries. Japan would sit on the sidelines with popcorn and watch while China burns.
             • SPC …

               23 July 2023 at 10:36 pm

               If Japan does not, China is capable of doing it themselves, by merely following their example.

               That "divide" has not stopped past Japanese investment in China, and to forecast the future based on a current "circumstance/issues" is not prescience.
               • Belladonna …

                 23 July 2023 at 10:54 pm

                 Oh, do tell how China (a country which has got old, faster than it has got rich), is going to copy Japan (a country which got rich, long before it got old).
                 • SPC …

                   23 July 2023 at 11:24 pm

                   Sound-bite sniper, China will have AI (labour saving) and quantum computing to help out.

                   And it helps them resolve the problem of maintaining employment – given the job losses in manufacture for US firms (now moving to produce more outside China).

                   Labour shortages result in higher wages (where they occur) and this then leads to development of the domestic services sector.

                   PS China has a lot of reserves – American debt etc.
         • SPC 3.1.4.2.3

           23 July 2023 at 8:41 pm

           it doesn't help and if all the countries with declining birth rates import all of the new people from africa and the Middle East then how are they supposed to survive.

           They will still be among the nations with a rising population, the other nations do not need to maintain their current population level to survive.
4. Ad 4

   23 July 2023 at 9:21 am

   Well at least we no longer have to wonder about what the world would look like if it heated 1.5 degrees celsius.

   Back in Glasgow COP 26 2021 we were still wondering.

   Two years ago.
5. tWiggle 5

   23 July 2023 at 9:55 am

   Newshub will cover Winston Peter's NZF party conference this weekend.

   Some under NZF umbrella include anti-vax doctors and anti co-governance/3 Waters activists. Lots of competition in that corner, though. NZF looking to hover up disgruntled Nats who can’t stomach ACT? The polite face of racism?
   • bwaghorn 5.1

     23 July 2023 at 10:28 am

     The only thing that'll get nzf over the line is if people want a hand brake on nact, I won't be one of them ,
   • Anne 5.2

     23 July 2023 at 10:59 am

     Never forget he learnt his political credentials at the knee of one, Robert David Muldoon.

     It was Muldoon who introduced Dirty Politics to NZ in the 1970s. He lied, cheated and manipulated people and situations to suit his personal ambitions. He crucified people because they had the temerity to stand up to him. He was also not above turning to the shadowy underworld to do his dirty work for him.

     Peters has copied Muldoon's style with considerable success over the years. Like Muldoon, he will do whatever it takes to grab power. In Peters' case he has thrown his lot in with the conspiracy theorists and the anti-brigade together with the generally bewildered who are easy to manipulate.

     I once gave him credit for helping to expose the Wine Box papers, but as far as I can tell that was about the only positive thing he's ever done… unless some want to include the Gold Card which was primarily a ploy to garner the elderly vote than having any altruistic considerations.
     • tWiggle 5.2.1

       23 July 2023 at 11:42 am

       Peters has incredible ability and intelligence to capture pressing issues. Some of his speeches I have read are superb – sharp analyses set out in beautiful oratory – statesman territory.

       But, because he is a shameless egoist with no moral compass, Peters swings to whatever populist direction wins him power on the day. If he had stuck to one position, he could have achieved much more for himself and the country in his years in Parliament.
       • Anne 5.2.1.1

         23 July 2023 at 2:04 pm

         If he had stuck to one position, he could have achieved much more for himself and the country in his years in Parliament.

         Indeed. Had he used his undoubted talents in a truly positive way he could have been a long-term PM in his own right with majority support from both Maori and Pakeha.
   • Michael P 5.3

     23 July 2023 at 5:20 pm

     Who are the anti vax doctors? I find it hard to believe any doctors would be anti vax
     • tWiggle 5.3.1

       23 July 2023 at 5:50 pm

       From NZ Doctor 2020 issue, 17 who did sign anti-vax statement.

       South of Gisborne, a local doctor serving his mostly Maori community spoke against covid vaccination. As he was trusted, this decreased local vax rates. Can't readily find the link, but it was widely reported at the time.

       NZF doctor is 'anti-mandate' not anti-vax, but that is essentially the same thing, defending rights to work and free movement when you aren't prepared to protect your community by having the jab.
       • Patricia Bremner 5.3.1.1

         23 July 2023 at 9:42 pm

         There was one in Murupara.
6. joe90 6

   23 July 2023 at 12:26 pm

   Margarita Simonyan isn’t talking about Europe. Ukrainian grain will continue to be shipped there by rail.The famine they're talking about is in Africa.

   Russia wants to force the West cave to Russian cruelty by starving Africans.

   @visegrad24

   “All our hope is in a famine” “The famine will start now, and they will lift the sanctions, and be friends with us, because they will realize it is necessary" The Russians have been telling us for months what they plan to do but the West isn’t listening

   https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1682296774768074752
   • Belladonna 6.1

     23 July 2023 at 1:37 pm

     Ukrainian grain has historically never been exported to Europe – so there has always been zero risk of famine there from the interrupted supplies.

     Which is a good thing for its European neighbours (e.g. Poland) which are also grain exporting countries. Grain exported last year caused political issues – because it was 'dumped' into the local economies of other grain-exporting countries.

     https://www.euronews.com/2023/06/14/eu-blocks-ukraine-grain-imports-to-five-countries-including-poland

     There are major challenges with transiting grain through Europe – the rail network isn't consistent between Ukraine and most of the EU (the gauge is different) – so you'd have to break bulk; and, in any case, it's logistically impossible to shift anything like as much by train as you can by sea. They're now exploring alternative hybrid scenarios (e.g. rail to a Romanian port, then sea freight)

     https://gcaptain.com/planes-trains-automobiles-cant-move-ukraine-grain-heres-why/

     I think Russia is more concerned over restricting foreign exchanged earned by Ukraine (and therefore able to be spent on resisting Russian aggression), than over trying to instil a moral panic in the west about famine in Africa.

     Although, I agree that Africa is certain to be the loser in this. Even if Ukrainian grain is bought by other countries (e.g. China) – if it's not available, those countries will switch to alternative sources, pushing up prices. China won't go short. Africa will.
7. Muttonbird 7

   23 July 2023 at 3:23 pm

   Correct!

   https://twitter.com/SquanderedTeeth/status/1682907978524164096
8. joe90 8

   23 July 2023 at 3:40 pm

   Doing the ground work for a wind break garden enclosure has involved digging 1.6m holes to accommodate 4.8m posts. I'd neglected to adequately cover one hole and late Friday evening my SO brought news of a deceased hedge pig lying in the bottom.

   This morning I went to retrieve the carcass, gave it a nudge with the shovel and lo, it was alive!. After most of the day in a shoe box in front of the burner hedge pig is active, drinking, on it's second helping of dog roll dog and hopefully should be good to be released later this evening.

   And yes, I have covered the hole and checked the others.
   • Ad 8.1

     23 July 2023 at 4:32 pm

     That is a mighty big fence.

     I've windbreaked my acre at 1.2m and it was still work.

     What are you growing?
     • joe90 8.1.1

       23 July 2023 at 6:21 pm

       Hopefully a fucking decent lemon tree or two, salt is the issue, in a 6×4.5x3M pest proof windbreak enclosure surrounding raised beds.

       Two rows 124-150mm x 4.8M @3M with rammed Superpost® intermediaries @1.5M, footed and headed with tg & v retaining, wrapped and topped with deer fencing and then windbreak.
     • joe90 8.1.2

       23 July 2023 at 6:34 pm

       I've windbreaked my acre at 1.2m and it was still work.

       Went there, did that thirty years ago. I have mature Karo/Pohutukawa hedges to show for my troubles.
   • ianmac 8.2

     23 July 2023 at 4:49 pm

     Hedgehogs are listed as noxious animals and there is a project to eliminate them. Sadly.
   • weston 8.3

     23 July 2023 at 10:00 pm

     Gd on ya for saving the chog joe im curious tho as to why you need a big windbreak if you.ve got a mature pohut plus karo one i'd have thought would be pretty substantial by now ?
     • joe90 8.3.1

       23 July 2023 at 10:57 pm

       Hedge pig appeared to be fit and well after a third feed so I deposited it under the hedge and off it waddled.

       Mature as in substantial and 2M high for ease of maintenance but not much chop in the face of a rolling, gusty Westerly. Plus we're fifty metres from the sea in one of the country's windiest suburbs with nothing between us and the Antarctic so salt spray is an issue. Hence citrus failure after citrus failure.

       A few years ago I did buy a cheap second hand tunnel house but it was as flimsy AF so the weather slowly trashed it and all I was left with was a mountain of plastic that cost money to dispose. So I've decided to bite the bullet and build something that's far more substantial.
9. Macro 9

   23 July 2023 at 5:04 pm

   They hover up all manner of native wild life.

   https://www.doc.govt.nz/nature/pests-and-threats/animal-pests/hedgehogs/

   Our most underrated predator

   One hedgehog can cause an entire colony of endangered black-fronted terns to abandon their nests.

   Analysis of hedgehog gut contents and a growing catalogue of camera footage tell a compelling story. Hedgehogs hoover up countless endemic birds’ eggs and chicks, lizards, and invertebrates.

   In braided river systems they feast on the eggs and chicks of banded dotterels, black-fronted terns and pied oyster catchers. Our critically endangered kakī (black stilt) struggles to survive in the wild due to hedgehogs and other predators plaguing their habitat.
   • Michael P 9.1

     23 July 2023 at 5:43 pm

     I have no data on this but would hesitate a guess that way more people like hedgehogs than like insects and snails, etc.

     I notice on that link they say that rats must be completely eradicated from NZ. Have there been any studies done to determine any unforeseen problems on knock on effects of removing them from the ecosystem and life cycle? For example in cities, rats usually try and stay hidden from people and their impacts aren't only negative, they are also responsible for taking care of vast amounts of human rubbish and waste.

     I'm not sure removing an entire species from the life cycle (that species being a highly participative part of that life cycle) won't also have negative consequences. I'm guessing the environmental powers that be would have done their homework on this stuff….
10. tWiggle 10

    23 July 2023 at 5:24 pm

    In Palmy last night, Batchelor's anti co-governance meeting managed to keep his venue (he books venues under false ids). This one was inside the council-owned lido grounds, in a separate clubroom. Police were there, for crowd control, and to carry out trespass orders, removing protester who are inside the venue.

    But in this case, Batchelor illegally locked the gates, leaving the police outside them. Then people at his meeting attacked and dragged out a protester when they began whistling and showing a 'hate speech is not free speech' sign.

    Police are investigating the claim of assault and threatening texts sent to someone who wanted to attend.

    If you have security bouncers at such an event, they need to be licenced. Williams, the moaning racist from Chch was at a Batchelor meeting recently, and punched a couple of protesters, just for fun.
    • weka 10.1

      23 July 2023 at 6:05 pm

      what's the source for Batchelor having locked the police out, and for Williams punching a couple of protestors in Chch?
      • Francesca 10.1.1

        23 July 2023 at 6:14 pm

        It was in Takaka that he punched the protestors, well one he punched, the other, a woman had her arm crushed in a door, and collected one of his swings .The cops were not impressed by his attitude .

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/news/132555225/police-respond-to-disorder-at-stop-cogovernance-event-in-tkaka
        • weka 10.1.1.1

          23 July 2023 at 6:25 pm

          thanks.
      • tWiggle 10.1.2

        23 July 2023 at 7:41 pm

        Debunking Conspiracies Aotearoa facebook post the one with photo of 'stop making us whiteys look bad' protest sign, gives an in-person written account of the protest. Comments around posts in the last day or so on this topic there also expand the info, based on attendees' accounts. This includes illegally locking police out of the venue.

        The info about Williams comes from the same site about a week to 2 weeks ago, whenever the meeting was that he attended. It includes his own video, and he's clearly busting for a fight. He apparently was charged as a result.
    • Francesca 10.2

      23 July 2023 at 6:07 pm

      Batchelor has tried to say Lee Williams is nothing to do with him , that he just attends his meetings. He lied .Williams is definitely part of the whole roadshow.He is trouble, moving amongst the protestors, filming them and trying to provoke them to say or do something stupid.He also has a short fuse, and acts as an enforcer, identifying those he decrees "hostile" and refusing them entry

      In his YT videos its clear he and Batchelor are strongly connected.
11. joe90 11

    23 July 2023 at 8:52 pm

    tRumpian idiocy.

    //

    We'll be getting a new Minister of Hunting and Fishing if National gets elected.

    The party also wants to change the law so that game animals like deer, Himalayan tahr and pigs are no longer classified as pests to protect our right to hunt and fish.

    But one hunter says that's at odds with New Zealand's efforts to protect native forests.

    Hunters from the depths of Te Urewera to the spurs of Fiordland – the National Party has your vote in its sights.

    "What we've been working very hard with is the fishing and hunting interest groups to make sure we get the balance right for them," National leader Christopher Luxon said.

    National will:

    • Establish a Minister for Hunting and Fishing
    • Strengthen the Game Animal Council and designate 'herds of special interest'
    • Change the law so game animals are not pests
    • Guarantee access to public land for hunting and fishing
    • Establish the 'Huts of Recreational Importance' Partnership to maintain huts in the DoC estate
    • Support Fish & Game New Zealand and protect trout and salmon fishing
    • Not introduce recreational licences for game animal hunting or sea fishing.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/07/national-promises-new-minister-for-hunting-and-fishing-will-stop-game-animals-being-classified-as-pests.html
    • joe90 11.1

      23 July 2023 at 8:59 pm

      Lew has thoughts. (thread)

      @LewSOS

      This will result in two primary shifts: * Treating game species as a resource to be managed and monetised * Consequently greater restriction and regulation of recreational hunting that will raise barriers to entry and reduce hunting rates, with consequently higher herd sizes

      @simonbwilson

      ·22h

      I know for a lot of people it probably isn't a biggie, but the Nats have announced they will "Change the law so game animals are not pests." What does that even mean?

      https://twitter.com/LewSOS/status/1682934300696780801
12. tWiggle 12

    23 July 2023 at 9:40 pm

    Byebye Doc, hello uncontrolled deer, wallabies and stoats on reserve land. Hello crazy hunters in cammo making the bush dangerous for others. Suck up to gun lobby through the backdoor. All good keen man stuff.

    Looks like a 'cobble together a vote-for-us policy' to eat into ACT and to pick up interest groups without thinking it through.
    • Belladonna 12.1

      23 July 2023 at 10:17 pm

      Agree about deer (especially with the policy about herd protection).

      Seems unlikely that wallaby and stoat hunting are economic – and will remain classed as pests (along with possums)

      Most hunters are rural New Zealanders hunting to eat….

      And, while they've been staunchly against things like 1080 drops – so have some of the greenest of the greens – so a ban might garner support from some unlikely areas.

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