2020 election campaign – 6 days to go

Written By: - Date published: 9:23 am, October 12th, 2020 - 52 comments
Categories: election 2020, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, maori party, Maori seats, national - Tags:

The campaign is at a very interesting stage.

The country’s love of Jacinda is very evident.  She went to Mangere on Saturday and pretty well everyone turned up to greet her.

At the same time Judith was at Howick and the response was pretty underwhelming.  She had to fend off questions about Alfred Ngaro’s bizarre social media post attacking Phil Twyford.

She also had this unfortunate interaction with a Labour supporter.  From Michael Nielson at the Herald:

Collins also picked up a face mask, bread, sausages, and two packets of shortbread from Gloria Graydon, of Cheltenham Cakes.

“My husband loves shortbread,” Collins told the Herald.

Graydon didn’t quite share the same love for National, though, telling the Herald she was “definitely voting Labour”.

“Judith, she is very lovely. It was so nice of her to stop by and I’ve always wanted to meet her.

“But I’ve always voted Labour, for those who support the working people.”

Yesterday a group of us gathered at the Avondale Market.  The response was uplifting, the best I have experienced during 20 years of campaigning there.  But it was strange that there was no National presence.

Driving back home I realised why.  A huge number of National Activists were on the Great North Road, Rata Street intersection, one of the busiest in West Auckland.

But no one was tooting.  When local Labour does sign waving we get a huge number of toots.  National’s attempt with Judith in the middle fell really flat.

She chose yesterday to go on the offensive about Labour’s tax plans based on Green party policy.  The attacks however suffered from two problems:

  1. Labour has repeatedly ruled out implementing the policy which is Green Party policy.
  2. In yet another example that National is incapable of operating a spreadsheet they have made false claims about the effects of the policy.

Thomas Coughlan has the details:

National has taken down an election attack ad after getting its numbers wrong by about $1.8 million.

The party has kicked off its last week of campaigning with an ad criticising the Green Party’s wealth tax, which alleged the tax would cost an average retired couple in Auckland $140 a week.

That was based on a couple owning the average Auckland home, worth $950,000, mortgage-free, according to REINZ, and that couple having savings a Westpac paper suggests would give them “choices” in retirement.

Those savings would be worth $785,000, giving the couple a net wealth of $1.75 million.

The problem with the ad is this couple wouldn’t actually pay the wealth tax at all, as the Greens tax only applies to individuals wealth over $1 million.

A couple would have to have net wealth of more than $2 million to be hit at all.

The couple in question could double their retirement savings – putting aside a cool $1.5m on top of the mortgage-free home and still only pay $48 a week in the tax.

A corrected ad has been published.  But these guys are meant to be fiscal geniuses.  How can they keep making these mistakes?

National is hanging in there but you get the feeling that the wheels may well and truly fall off at any stage.  A report by Richard Harman in Politik this morning (paywalled) has the details.

Two aspects stood out.  Judith has apparently cancelled a campaign trip to Tauranga so that she can concentrate on campaigning in Hamilton.  I said two months ago that on a good day both Hamilton East and Hamilton West could be vulnerable.  Looks like they are.

The second is that Harman states National has figured out who leaked the Denise Lee email.  And it is someone in their top 20.  Stand by for hostilities to escalate dramatically after Saturday.

In other news Peeni Henare is ahead of John Tamihere in Tamaki Makaurau but not by much.  The Maori Party has this election pledged to support Labour if it is elected to Parliament.

And early voting has been very, very heavy.  Good turnout is always good news for the left.

This is going to be an interesting week …

 

52 comments on “2020 election campaign – 6 days to go ”

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  1. Ad 1
    12 October 2020 at 9:36 am

    Great to see Auckland's south and west rising strong.

  2. swordfish 2
    12 October 2020 at 9:41 am

    .

    I'll just repeat my Open Mike comment:

    To buttress his argument that "a 4% swing from Labour to National or ACT in the last two weeks" of the current election campaign is certainly achievable (and thus "there is a credible path to victory for National") ,David Farrar cites polling evidence from the final stages of the 2002 campaign, suggesting the "Govt (ie Labour) dropped 5% from 46% to 41% in last two weeks".

    What DPF doesn't mention is that in the same Colmar Brunton, the National Party Opposition suffered an even steeper plunge from 27% down 6 points to 21% over those same final 2 weeks.

    In other words, far from the gap closing .. Labour's lead over the Nats during those final few weeks in 2002 actually opened up a little by 1.4 points. There was no "5% swing" from Govt to Oppo.

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/10/over-interpreting_a_sarky_tweet.html

    # Lies, damned lies, and statistics

    • froggleblocks 2.1
      12 October 2020 at 10:03 am

      Also that it looks like 50-60% of the vote is going to be ahead of election day this year. There would have been barely any early votes in 2002.

      So even if there is a swing in the 'last week' of the campaign of such magnitude, the die is already cast.

    • Chris 2.2
      12 October 2020 at 10:23 am

      It was a different kettle of fish in 2002. No matter what English did or said he just couldn't get cut-through.

      However, it may be that this time it's the number of young people voting that could widen the gap further than what the polls say right now.

      • swordfish 2.2.1
        12 October 2020 at 10:43 am

        I don't think we'll see the same enormous plunge for the Nats as in 02 … Crusher is more popular with the base than Bill was (though maybe not by quite as much as some Pundits imagine) … but I wouldn’t rule out a milder echo of that Death Spiral down to the Gates of Hades that our close & endearing chums in the Blue team suffered on that cold, bleak election evening, all those long 18 years ago.

    • Andre 2.3
      12 October 2020 at 10:46 am

      In 2002, where did those votes from Labour and the Nats go? To the Hairdo from Ohariu Plus Cling-ons, and WinnieFirst. Who are both complete non-entities this time around. Also, a few Lab went Green, and a few Nats went yellow.

      image from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2002_New_Zealand_general_election

      • Uncle Scrim 2.3.1
        12 October 2020 at 10:49 am

        Yes and this time it is National who seem more vulnerable to losing votes to smaller parties, obviously Act but also NCs and the various christian parties. Labour may lose a few to the Greens but there are no credible centrist parties like NZF and United were back then.

      • swordfish 2.3.2
        12 October 2020 at 10:58 am

        .

        All over the bloody place … it was a complete lash up … mayhem everywhere … blood was spilt … but, yes, over those final 2 weeks the votes swung first & foremost to the –Winstonians– & the –Dunnites–.

      • Chris T 2.3.3
        12 October 2020 at 9:02 pm

        I couldn't bring myself to vote for a dude that spent years nagging that all cops should be armed with holsters.

        Then suddenly no when he joined Labour.

        The bloke is basically just two faced.

    • Chris 2.4
      12 October 2020 at 12:50 pm

      This applies equally to collins. Psychopathy, narcissism, likely multiple personality disorders. Would be good if the media began analysing her behaviour a bit more. Perhaps a new gig for Nigel Latta?

      https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/americas/donald-trumps-america/300130033/theres-one-headline-about-donald-trump-that-has-not-been-printed-but-makes-the-most-sense-of-all

  3. Sacha 3
    12 October 2020 at 10:45 am

    How can they keep making these mistakes?

    Deliberately, that's how.

  4. Sacha 4
    12 October 2020 at 10:48 am

    The Maori Party has this election pledged to support Labour if it is elected to Parliament.

    I can't imagine Labour formally agreeing to that given some of the stuff Tamihere has been coming out with lately.

    • froggleblocks 4.1
      12 October 2020 at 11:24 am

      No, but they can be a thorn in Labour's side. At this election if they get 1-2 seats, they may prevent Labour from governing alone (not likely anyway, but this would cement it).

      At 2023 they may force Labour to actively court the Maori vote and come up with their own versions of MP policy, and assuming Labour wins the 2023 election, by 2026 the Maori Party could have real influence over Labour policies if they want to win 2026.

      If MP get into Parliament then they'll certainly be outspoken about Labour's Matariki policy as well.

      • Pat 4.1.1
        12 October 2020 at 12:57 pm

        the personal relationships between the MP co leader and Labour may be an issue however…no love lost either way

    • Stuart Munro 4.2
      12 October 2020 at 1:06 pm

      It will play far better to their base than a longing for a seat at Judith's table.

    • ken 4.3
      12 October 2020 at 3:44 pm

      after what happened last time, Maori need to distance themselves from National to have any hope at all.

      • Chris T 4.3.1
        12 October 2020 at 10:06 pm

        Kind of ironic really, given the jack shit Maori have got from Labour over the years.

        National did more Treaty Settlements and without the Nats there would be no Whanau Ora.

        Can see why they have been forced to side with Labour though.

        Pragmatism and that.

        Reminds me a bit f the Greens ruling out working with the Nats

        • Sacha 4.3.1.1
          12 October 2020 at 10:24 pm

          The Māori Party were closer to the Nats with a focus on ‘self-determination’ for individuals and families than the Greens ever have been (though the latter did manage to reach common agreement for a while on home insulation).

          • Chris T 4.3.1.1.1
            12 October 2020 at 10:29 pm

            I'd actually forgotten that. Between the Greens and the Nat's they probably insulated more houses via subsidy than any other govt can or will do.

            The Nat's after each of their election wins didn't actually need the Maori Party to become govt.

            Yes, I realise they were a handy tool to have for certain bills, but they were invited in.

  5. Peter 5
    12 October 2020 at 11:28 am

    If Act get more MPs than National will Seymour be the Leader of the Opposition or Collins' replacement? wink

  6. Draco T Bastard 6
    12 October 2020 at 11:53 am

    But these guys are meant to be fiscal geniuses. How can they keep making these mistakes?

    They're not fiscal geniuses or, in fact, geniuses at all. They're making these mistakes because they don't know any better and they fail at basic logic.

    That's always been true. They go on about how great they are but such grandstanding has always been the action of those who are bad at what they say that they're good at. It's unfortunate that the MSM has always repeated those lies as if they were gospel.

    The Maori Party has this election pledged to support Labour if it is elected to Parliament.

    After the last fiasco of them helping National make things worse it is probably the only way that they could get anyone to vote for them.

    • PaddyOT 6.1
      12 October 2020 at 2:16 pm

      " After the last fiasco of them ( the Māori Party ) helping National make things worse it is probably the only way that they could get anyone to vote for them."

      National's fiasco was National's own plans with a couple of too small, thin blankets traded off. Seems to be that fear inducing comments need some examination.

      Perhaps the Māori Party's close allignment in social inclusion and education policy would invalidate your disparaging " anyone" . To my mind addressing inequality in these policies are for the long term betterment of all NZ society.

      • Replace the youth benefit with the standard benefit
      • Establish a mokopuna Māori care entity
      • Provide free digital devices and internet for all children from year 4 to year 13
      • Fund free breakfast and lunch programmes in all low-decile primary and intermediate schools
      • Ban conversion therapy
      • Fund hapū and iwi-led youth employment initiatives
      • Double Māori and Pacific trade training and cadetships placements
      • Create more tertiary education pathways for Māori and Pacific students who have not achieved entrance requirements
      • Establish taskforce to reform teaching and support for Māori students with disabilities
      • Remove fees from apprenticeships
      • Increase funding for whānau, hapū and iwi education and training initiatives
      • Develop advanced apprenticeships schemes in certain sectors
      • Double the student allowance and make it universal
      • Restore full student allowance eligibility for post-graduate, part-time and long course students
      • Write off living costs from student loan debt
      • Aim to write off student loan debt for those who work in NZ for five years
      • Provide free public transport for all tertiary students
      • Allow people to earn more before student allowances are reduced

      • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1
        12 October 2020 at 3:23 pm

        Establish a mokopuna Māori care entity

        Māori only or open to everyone?

        Create more tertiary education pathways for Māori and Pacific students who have not achieved entrance requirements

        Wouldn't that be what apprenticeships are for?

        And why only make it for Māori and Pacific students?

        Establish taskforce to reform teaching and support for Māori students with disabilities

        Again, why only Māori?

        Increase funding for whānau, hapū and iwi education and training initiatives

        Only as long as those education facilities are open to everyone and are part of the state system.

        Develop advanced apprenticeships schemes in certain sectors

        Which sectors?

        What we’re seeing here is why identity politics fails.

        • RobbieWgtn 6.1.1.1
          12 October 2020 at 5:34 pm

          What we're seeing here is woke racism.

        • PaddyOT 6.1.1.2
          13 October 2020 at 12:47 am

          I focused on your disdain for the Māori Party and your emphasised " anyone" who would vote for them. Focused on was the allignment of similar policy of Labour and with Green's policy when addressing inequality issues.

          However, nicely spun and flipped there DTB twisting my message as one of asking for what you view as racist seperatist policy rather than see solutions.

          I thought it was ACT and the Conservatives pushing for 'one nation; put cotton wool in ears and cover eyes and wish that NZers should just meld into your one ideal vanilla cloned Sneetch.

          How has blanket, non specific, one size policy worked so far over time for enacting social justice? Has poverty, educational achievement, living standards, justice statistics changed in a positive direction for all ? It's All of these interconnected areas that we measure our society's wellbeing by, so a big fat NO on how endeavours so far have failed Māori overall.

          Is it time to focus at grassroots level and be truly transformative by locating who are drowning ?

          https://maori.salvationarmy.org.nz/our-community/faith-in-life/soul-food/MMGoal4

          I am not the first nor will I be the last to say that a society is only as great as to how it treats its most vulnerable.

          Even from 2013 what's changed after the CPAG report. We are now standing in a position in 2020 where visible now are the lifecourse outcomes of ineffective same old, same old token policy which embeds misery.

          https://www.wgtn.ac.nz/news/2016/10/poverty-and-crime

          'He manga wai koia kia kore e whitikia’
          It is indeed a big river that can not be crossed. Open mindedness, divergent thinking, utilising more diverse approaches to find solutions and willingness are key to change.

          ( btw- non Māori have always been able to attend māori kura, wānanga or able to learn the reo or tikanga or take measures to learn concepts from māori world views on any kaupapa . FOMO )

          • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1.2.1
            13 October 2020 at 12:58 am

            However, nicely spun and flipped there DTB twisting my message as one of asking for what you view as racist seperatist policy rather than see solutions.

            I didn’t spin at all as it is racist, separatist policy.

            How has blanket, non specific, one size policy worked so far over time for enacting social justice?

            A hell of a lot better than than the division that identity politics brings about. It is, after all, why we're no longer warring tribes living a brutal and short life.

            so a big fat NO on how endeavours so far have failed Māori overall.

            It hasn't just affected Māori and your ignoring of the damage done to others is a large part of the problem that we need to address.

            I focused on your disdain for the Māori Party and your emphasised " anyone" who would vote for them.

            The MP sold out to National and so are worthy of disdain.

            • PaddyOT 6.1.1.2.1.1
              13 October 2020 at 1:34 am

              Whoa! you took 1 minute between my post and your reply. Supersonic speed reading of articles to enhance your knowledge or willful inability to define things any other way than your own assumptions.

              " I didn’t spin at all as it is racist, separatist policy."

              That pretty much writes off and F#s up voting for Labour and the Green's too.

              Under your view policy for LGBTQ equality, or gender equity is seperatist too.

              Again DTB, a very fantastic, complex machine is going to need to be invented to coerce many diverse kiwis to give up the whole core of their identity to fit your fictional, ideal human being.

              • Draco T Bastard …
                13 October 2020 at 1:45 am

                Under your view policy for LGBTQ equality, or gender equity is seperatist too.

                Legally, it already exists. Its going to take awhile until the culture meets with that legality. Its really on of those things where we have to wait for the old culture to die off.

                Again DTB, a very fantastic, complex machine is going to need to be invented to coerce many diverse kiwis to give up the whole core of their identity

                Nope.

                Couldn't care less about identity. People can do whatever they want with it as long as what they do doesn't affect others.

                I do care about people being treated differently in law which is what you, and others, are demanding.

                Whoa! you took 1 minute between my post and your reply.

                I suggest you check your maths.

          • PaddyOT 6.1.1.2.2
            13 October 2020 at 1:00 am

            We can even indecently commidify Māori as a monetary value to drive change for social justice. In 2016, $ 2.6 billion loss…

            https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/102643651/inequality-depriving-maori-and-the-economy-of-26b-every-year

            ” And so if we continue to pretend these education outcomes and this income gap is somebody else’s problem then we’re fooling ourselves because it is actually New Zealand that’s losing out, not just Māori.”

            • RedLogix 6.1.1.2.2.1
              13 October 2020 at 1:19 am

              Interestingly it was the period immediately after WW2 that NZ (and most of the rest of the world) experienced the greatest equality. We were all more or less poor together. The trivial way to achieve it is to level the entire system to the ground.

              Now after a sustained period of relative stability and growth inequality is now at a peak. Viewed from this admittedly simplified perspective, inequality may well be mostly a natural consequence of peace and prosperity.

              The really interesting challenge is how to achieve both at the same time. It's never really been done before.

              • PaddyOT …
                13 October 2020 at 1:48 am

                "The really interesting challenge is how to achieve both at the same time. It's never really been done before."

                That's the transformative bit.

                " …inequality may well be mostly a natural consequence of peace and prosperity."

                A natural consequence???

                • RedLogix …
                  13 October 2020 at 2:07 am

                  The word 'natural' may not the be the best word, perhaps 'normal' might have been a better choice.

                  The historic correlation between peace and prosperity is a very strong one, all wealthy societies over time have become more unequal not less. And this has occurred almost regardless of political or economic system, which strongly suggests these are not the primary drivers in inequality.

                  Yet like you I do not see gross extremes of wealth and poverty as either desirable or inevitable … just a more difficult problem that may well be of a different nature than we usually assume. Yes the outcome of the problem can be measured in monetary and social terms, but the root causes of inequality may well be quite resistant to crude 'silver bullet' interventions.

    • I Feel Love 6.2
      12 October 2020 at 2:47 pm

      I voted MP that term, never again.

  7. Michael who failed Civics 7
    12 October 2020 at 3:14 pm

    I agree with @NoRightTurn: Labour's refusal to even discuss taxing unearned wealth when it knows it cannot afford to fund essential public goods speaks volumes for its true priorities.

    • Ad 7.1
      12 October 2020 at 5:55 pm

      Hardly any need when Reserve Bank has an appetite to keep effectively funding the government with endless bond purchases.

      • Pat 7.1.1
        12 October 2020 at 6:18 pm

        and how long do you think that is a viable option?

        • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1.1
          12 October 2020 at 9:53 pm

          Permanently.

          The government is the issuer of our currency and so doesn't need an income to pay for stuff.

          • Pat 7.1.1.1.1
            12 October 2020 at 10:08 pm

            I know how long you think its viable…I was curious as to how long Ad thought it was

            • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1.1.1.1
              12 October 2020 at 10:26 pm

              It's not how long I think its viable but how long it is actually viable in the real world.

              As all the evidence shows, if the government didn't create the money in the first place the economy would collapse.

              You, like many others, just don't want to believe that but no amount of denial can change the truth.

  8. Bearded Git 8
    12 October 2020 at 3:36 pm

    More than 453,000 voted on Saturday and Sunday….WTF!

  9. ken 9
    12 October 2020 at 3:46 pm

    I got in early in case there was another lockdown.

  10. Brian Tregaskin 10
    12 October 2020 at 5:36 pm

    Newshub poll Monday or Tuesday night

    Roy Morgon poll -about to drop

    Id be surprised if National has a thirty something points with such an epic fail in their campaign.

    Finger in the air to Nationals campaign advisors –they are amateurs

  11. Obtrectator 11
    12 October 2020 at 6:11 pm

    Good to see Jacinda is apparently so popular. But I do wish to goodness one could be reasonably certain the Greens will still be in Parliament after Saturday.

  12. NZJester 12
    12 October 2020 at 8:38 pm

    I will not be voting this Saturday, because like over 1 million NZ voters I went and voted early.

  13. georgecom 13
    12 October 2020 at 8:41 pm

    I liked page 10 of the NZ Herald today. 'Luxon Launches Charm Offensive' reads the headline.

    "A woman with 2 enthusiastic dogs is walking past Nationals Chris Luxon……Please tell me this man is going to solvethe National Party's problem….You're right. If you can't manage your team, your party, why should people trust you to manage the country".

    The truth told, Luxon starts his campaign to become National Party leader.

  14. peter sim 14
    12 October 2020 at 8:45 pm

    Why don't we all shut up until post 7pm on on election day? There are other things to discuss. The natz are gone burgers.

    Ad will dissent.

    • millsy 14.1
      12 October 2020 at 10:54 pm

      Im waiting till 10pm on election night to verify that before I celebrate.

      Then at work the the following Monday, I am going to rub it all in the faces of the people in my office that hate Jacinda.

  15. Scud 15
    13 October 2020 at 12:20 am

    As usual with NZ politics at election time no debates or questions raised on Defence, Veterans,Foreign Affairs, Trade, Antarctic or International Aid/ Humanitarian And Disaster Relief from either Party. Heck Labour has only its Foreign & Trade Policy at its website and sweet bugger all on the rest I’ve mentioned.

    As there is to massive Defence acquisitions planned for the parliamentary term the new Southern Ocean Patrol Vessel and the first of 2 new purpose design Landing Ships with a docking well inside the Ship. These two ships won’t come cheap either and you would be lucky to get any change out of 1.5B NZD before we even start looking such things as extra Helicopters design to operate of these ships. Also there is a RFI’s (Request For Information) for the Boeing 757 replacement this term as well.

    Then you’re got the question around the future of NZND at Devonport as the next lot of Ships including the newly arrived fleet support ship about to enter RNZN service will be to big for the existing dry dock and current shore facilities not including the two new Cook Ferries as well for KiwiRail which will have go somewhere to do its maintenance. This will be the biggest Government Infrastructure Projects probably since Think Big under old Piggy Muldoon and where are you going to a new Naval Dockyard? My guess it will be Northland as putting in the Sounds would be a risky option from the Environmental, Fishing industry concerns & geological POV etc.

    Then we have, Antarctic, International Aid/ HADR funding due to CC before I even get round to discussing Veterans and the new lot of veterans of my age group coming through the system.

    A lot of big questions to ask, but as usual most people don’t care about these policies as it doesn’t usually effect them until it’s to late.

  16. PaddyOT 16
    13 October 2020 at 2:47 am

    " Its really on of those things where we have to wait for the old culture to die off."

    Jeepers !

    Found and read one of the long dead father- in- laws old books last week. The whole theme was that phrase of yours DTB.

    Dr. Albert Schweitzer, ' On the Edge of the Primevak Forest.' He writes his accounts of his time in Equatorial Africa in 1910s trying to wipe identity out to fit his ideal human by preventing the blacks their " unsuitable freedom" . At the same time he acknowledges that social problems that never existed came from the white colonists in the first instance.

    His wish was to have the people of the Ogowe river region see that his colonists' ways were superior ,that " they bow and acknowledge his master" . All the while mass exploitation of labour and mass deforestion of hardwood timber for the western world took place. But poor Schweitzer with his black servants, and doctoring the illnesses his own missionaries bought, it was so hard going for him, exhausted after his efforts to indoctrinate the negro he commented , " That it is so hard to keep oneself really humane ( in his drive to make one ideal identity ), and so to be a standard bearer of civilisation, that is the tragic element of the relations between white and coloured men….wonderfully noble characters can result.. to become a more reliable man in our sense…. they need to become thoroughly moral personalities as the white man is."

    Oh the paradox ! How things have changed as the old culture dies off.