2023 Final results

166 comments on “2023 Final results ”

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1. observer 1

   3 November 2023 at 2:52 pm

   Worst political commentary ever. Best headline ever …

   National-Act new government: Special votes won’t change a thing – Mike Hosking – NZ Herald
   • lprent 1.1

     3 November 2023 at 3:06 pm

     Mike Hosking really is a political moron. But his level of lazy ignorance spreads far wider than that.
   • SPC 1.2

     3 November 2023 at 3:08 pm

     His reckons are like an old vacuum cleaner.

     They suck, but there is no guarantee it stays in.

     See bull dust. And all hat and no cattle.
   • Incognito 1.3

     3 November 2023 at 3:22 pm

     Headlines from dickheads
2. Sanctuary 2

   3 November 2023 at 2:53 pm

   People who lost safe seats ought not to be rewarded with a high placing on the list like at least one candidate has.

   Just sayin'.
   • Leighton 2.1

     3 November 2023 at 3:16 pm

     Agreed. Deborah Russell convincingly losing my dark-red electorate of New Lynn to the National candidate is a pretty damning indictment, yet here she is back on the list.
     • Sanctuary 2.1.1

       3 November 2023 at 3:44 pm

       And her opponent is a complete spinner with some pretty reactionary views. Still, his unexpected elevation to parliament is undoubtably going to cause Luxon some headaches in the future. Expect a defection the New Conservatives in New Lynn sometime in the next three years.
     • Craig H 2.1.2

       3 November 2023 at 3:52 pm

       I don't think it had much to do with either candidate, and a lot to do with dissatisfaction with Labour generally.
     • Mike the Lefty 2.1.3

       3 November 2023 at 4:48 pm

       Having non-performing MPs in parliament year after year is not exclusively a trait of MMP. Under FPP you could get useless gits standing in ultra safe red or blue seats election after election, doing little other than gathering a parliamentary salary, with the expectation that they would be in parliament until they finally got tired of it, or died: whichever occurred first.
     • Ghostwhowalks 2.1.4

       3 November 2023 at 6:00 pm

       Dark red ?

       Its includes higher income Titirangi and the Waitakere ranges. I think the boundary changes after 2017 which excluded 'red' part of Avondale and took in higher income Blockhouse bay. The 2020 landslide obscurred the changes
   • Corey 2.2

     3 November 2023 at 8:14 pm

     100,000% agree. The party needs to renew and needs all hands on deck.

     If you can't win a safe seat you are dead weight and are not going to be able to help the party renew and should resign with dignity, or be pushed.

     Russell, Davis, Heneare, Anderson, Mckellon, O'Connor should all resign next week.

     People who nearly lost safe seats like perpetually smug Helen White and co should retire at the next election.

     Woods, the Gerry Brownlee of NZ labour , who managed the campaign and was a useless minister should resign from her safe seat.

     The leadership Hipkins (whose majority is not impressive) , Woods, Robbo, Davies, should all resign before the next election .

     Willy Jackson failed in his one job in the campaign horrifically, he must resign.

     Labours only won the popular vote one election in 18 years and that one victory was because of an emergency and a popular leader who ran on zero policies.

     Labours brand of cautious, flavorless third way managerialism third wayism has been shown to be electoral poison in election after election. It's time the party listened and changed.

     You have to go back 21 years to 2002 to find a time where labours third way managerialism convincingly won an election outside of an emergency.

     Listen, Adapt or die.
     • Patricia Bremner 2.2.1

       3 November 2023 at 9:19 pm

       So stand Corey!!
     • SPC 2.2.2

       3 November 2023 at 9:34 pm

       Funny, have to win a seat, then onto winning a seat is not good enough – it's about the size of the majority.

       Does anyone have a majority large enough?

       Do you do a version of the commentators on stage?

       You could add KM lost his electorate, but he would have if he was to change gender, so he's OK and should lead the party.
     • SPC 2.2.3

       3 November 2023 at 10:26 pm

       FYI

       In 2017 the majority was 8000, with Labour 7.5% behind National

       In 2023 the majority was 9000, despite Labour being 11% behind National.
3. tsmithfield 3

   3 November 2023 at 2:56 pm

   I would wager a virtual chocolate fish on there being a coalition announcement by end of next week.
   • observer 3.1

     3 November 2023 at 3:04 pm

     It might take a little longer. Hipkins will settle for Deputy PM but his caucus won't be happy.
     • newsense 3.1.1

       3 November 2023 at 9:53 pm

       It would be just the most brilliant thing if Luxon made out how he was going to do negotiations better than anyone- better than Key, English, Ardern, Clark, Peters, Dunne and not let anyone know what was going on and in the end he gets blindsided with an announcement going with the left…
   • George 3.2

     3 November 2023 at 7:13 pm

     I think there's a virtual cauliflower somewhere in the ether offering something along those lines
4. Dennis Frank 4

   3 November 2023 at 3:00 pm

   Winston will try to rule with an iron fist but Luxon may still believe he's in control so the coalition of chaos thing is plausible.

   However it's just as likely that they will act like adults instead, in which case each party will perch itself primly on the 3-legged stool. Common interest: to show the right aren't a rabble, but are responsible professional politicians. Don't laugh!
   • observer 4.1

     3 November 2023 at 3:06 pm

     They want a mini-budget before Xmas. At least, Luxon and Willis do.

     Homework for everyone – try and write the outline of that mini-budget. Include tax policy, of course. Good luck.
   • lprent 4.2

     3 November 2023 at 3:11 pm

     Yeah right. They are all competing for the same voters come next election.

     Unless you mean a stool that you stand on with a knotted rope above? I don't think that even the idea of political suicide will prevent this lot from back-stabbing each other,
     • Dennis Frank 4.2.1

       3 November 2023 at 3:17 pm

       Definitely a test of Luxon's political skill! If they can all get their priority policies agreed as common ground the troika will work. If! Otherwise resentment will escalate & prospect of another election likewise…
       • Tricledrown 4.2.1.1

         3 November 2023 at 8:15 pm

         Or back to 1998 where National white anted nz first .
   • bwaghorn 4.3

     3 November 2023 at 6:28 pm

     Ever time I've seen seymour on TV of late he's thrown snide little comments Winston's way .
     • Dennis Frank 4.3.1

       3 November 2023 at 6:36 pm

       Not surprising but no point blaming W for spoiling his party. He ought to think about who actually brought Winston back from the pasture: floaters & opportunist lukewarm Labour voters getting all strategic.

       When you think about the percentage doing it, there's a significant bunch of shrewd buggers out there..
5. observer 5

   3 November 2023 at 3:01 pm

   Worth noting that National under Don Brash (2005) and Bill English (2017) got a higher percentage of the vote than Luxon. They lost.

   Of course Luxon will be PM and is fully entitled to be. Barring a meltdown in negotiations, he will have a majority in the House. But a landslide it ain't.
6. Belladonna 6

   3 November 2023 at 3:09 pm

   I suspect there will be other re-counts (there's really nothing to lose for the candidate polling just under). e.g Mt Albert (20 votes difference)

   It doesn't impact on the number of seats for each party – just on the individuals taking them up.

   Do people think that Henare & Davis will take up their list places, or retire? (Only matters for the Labour list)

   The big news is the TPM overhang of 2 seats – combined with the Port Waikato overhang, resulting in a 123 seat Parliament. Meaning that there is an absolute requirement for Luxon to negotiate with NZF as well as ACT in order to form a government.
   • AB 6.1

     3 November 2023 at 3:15 pm

     I suspect there will be other re-counts … It doesn't impact on the number of seats for each party

     Unless TPM lose a seat or two to Labour on a recount, which then reduces TPM's overhang and brings Nat-ACT closer to a majority. Hipkins (if he thinks about it) is potentially torn between showing loyalty to his MPs by asking for recounts, and making life as difficult as possible for Luxon
     • lprent 6.1.1

       3 November 2023 at 3:18 pm

       Te Tai Tokerau by 517 votes..

       I don't think that a recount will overturn that.

       Tāmaki Makaurau by 4 votes

       That is winnable by a recount.
       • bwaghorn 6.1.1.1

         3 November 2023 at 6:31 pm

         After 3 weeks of counting, if there's still miscounts, some serious sacking needs to happen.
         • Craig H 6.1.1.1.1

           3 November 2023 at 9:35 pm

           Everyone's a fixed term employee, nobody to sack.

           The main reason for miscounts is the judge decides differently to the counter on 'informal' ballots.
           • lprent 6.1.1.1.1.1

             3 November 2023 at 10:42 pm

             Exactly.

             The number of votes that are informal but arguable about intent are usually in the lowish 10s across a whole electorate.

             It has been that way for decades now. Which is why recounts have seldom seldom succeeded or been taken. I've put the court decisions in the electorate name link. They are clear and give a good idea about what gets looked at and the process.

             There were 2 judicial recounts in Tāmaki Makaurau and Te Tai Hauāuru in 2020. The max movement for a candidate was about 15.

             There were no judicial recount applications in 2017.

             There was one judicial recount in 2014 in Te Tai Tokerau. Max change for a candidate was 14
     • SPC 6.1.2

       3 November 2023 at 3:29 pm

       Henare is on the list if not electorate MP.
     • Belladonna 6.1.3

       3 November 2023 at 3:39 pm

       Hipkins (if he thinks about it) is potentially torn between showing loyalty to his MPs by asking for recounts, and making life as difficult as possible for Luxon

       I don't think that it really matters, on these numbers (National/ACT 59) Luxon has to negotiate with NZF as well as ACT – even if the TPM overhang vanished on recount (and as LPrent says, at least one of the overhang seats looks pretty safe for TPM).

       Both of the 'displaced' Labour MPs have safe list seats – so it's really the list places below them, who are going to miss out.

       And, also interesting on the other side – will Luxon support his MPs who've just missed out on Labour seats (Nelson, Mt Albert) – to call for a re-count?
       • ianmac 6.1.3.1

         3 November 2023 at 4:11 pm

         With a huge back pocket NAct can afford the cost of a recount whereas Maori Party not so much.
         • Incognito 6.1.3.1.1

           3 November 2023 at 4:15 pm

           $1,022.22 per application.

           https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/about-elections/election-recounts-and-petitions/
         • Belladonna 6.1.3.1.2

           3 November 2023 at 4:16 pm

           It's only $1K or so for a electorate MP recount. I'm pretty sure the war-chest would stand it.
           But, there is zero benefit to TPM in asking for a re-count – there is nothing for them to win – only a chance of losing.

           What I hadn't considered, was whether another candidate (National, probably) would ask for a recount in a close electorate race (Tamaki/Makarau), even if the National candidate has no chance of winning.
           • lprent 6.1.3.1.2.1

             3 November 2023 at 10:46 pm

             If National put candidates up in the Maori seats – then of course they can.

             However it has been a long time since they have put up a candidate in one of those 7 seats.

             But they appear to have a smattering of candidates in this election.. WTF!
             • Belladonna …

               3 November 2023 at 10:53 pm

               Hinurewa Te Hau stood for National in Tamaki Makarau.

               But no National candidate in Te Tai Tokerau.
               • Ghostwhowalks …

                 4 November 2023 at 10:29 am

                 Its to get party votes and they did get 1269 party votes in Tamaki Makarau

                 Previously they dropped out to clear TPM the run for both electorate and party votes.

                 Its a different TPM now
     • mikesh 6.1.4

       3 November 2023 at 4:00 pm

       National and ACT between them have only 59 seats, plus one prospective seat in Port Waikato, making 60 altogether. So if the overhang disappears, and Peters refuses National, it will be a hung parliament. Very unlikely, but if Peters decides he cannot go along with some of the policies National insists on, it could happen. And if the overhang doesn't disappear … … …
     • Corey 6.1.5

       3 November 2023 at 8:16 pm

       So hipkins will make life as easy as possible for Luxon and throw strategy out the window and hope to reduce the overhang out of pure tribalism.

       It's the labour way.
   • lprent 6.2

     3 November 2023 at 3:16 pm

     Tāmaki Makaurau is the one recount that counts politically. It could eliminate one seat off the overhang.

     I believe that a recount can only be called for by candidates. Problem is that with exception of the Labour and TPM candidates I have no idea who the others are.
     • SPC 6.2.1

       3 November 2023 at 3:23 pm

       It’s a tough call for Labour, they would like the seat now and also in 2026 …but if the new government had issues

       60 is less than 34 15 6 + 8.

       Speaker and 60-62.

       Then there is the issue of a local Maori leader (JT), who has a fiefdom in the area and who has influence with TPM.
       • Ghostwhowalks 6.2.1.1

         4 November 2023 at 10:26 am

         Speakers dont remove a vote from parliament any more

         They give their proxy vote to their party permanently as the MMP system allows for all Mps to do – sickness, travel etc
     • Incognito 6.2.2

       3 November 2023 at 3:37 pm

       Correct about recount of electorate vote. They’ve got three days to apply.

       https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/about-elections/election-recounts-and-petitions/
     • Craig H 6.2.3

       3 November 2023 at 4:05 pm

       Hannah Tamaki (independent), Darleen Tana (Greens), Hinurewa Te Hau (National).
     • Belladonna 6.2.4

       3 November 2023 at 4:18 pm

       So, possible that the National candidate could call for a recount (even though National have no chance of winning the seat), in the hopes that TPM will lose to Labour, and eliminate one seat from the overhang.
     • Ghostwhowalks 6.2.5

       3 November 2023 at 4:35 pm

       all the major ones including national for a change, who might want a recount for tactical reasons

       HENARE, Peeni10046	Labour Party11574
       KEMP, Takutai Tarsh10050	Te Pāti Māori8048
       TAMAKI, Hannah829
       TANA, Darleen2911	Green Party3230
       TE HAU, Hinurewa1274	National Party1269
     • ianmac 6.2.6

       3 November 2023 at 4:48 pm

       "I believe that a recount can only be called for by candidates."

       Bet the clever Mr Luxon could "persuade" the Nat candidate to recount even though he/she would have no chance. Strategic recounts are legal?
       • Craig H 6.2.6.1

         3 November 2023 at 9:37 pm

         The law doesn't care about the reason (can be any reason or no reason), it just provides the option for candidates.
   • Sanctuary 6.3

     3 November 2023 at 3:35 pm

     Davis was a liability with the wider electorate, he unfortunately came across as a bit thick. However, the justification for keeping him on in such a lofty post was he had good relations with Maori and therefore was vital electorally. Well, by the look of it he duffed that up as well so bye bye Kelvin, off to a nice Iwi authority for you.
     • Patricia Bremner 6.3.1

       3 November 2023 at 9:36 pm

       Kelvin was a Principal previously.
   • Jester 6.4

     3 November 2023 at 5:31 pm

     What is the normal number where you would go for a re-count? Less than a 500 majority? There are quite a few still on the knife edge. $1,022 as below, in the scheme of things isn't really a huge cost.
     • observer 6.4.1

       3 November 2023 at 5:48 pm

       It's not a huge cost, but they can't (politically) take a frivolous action. The perception of "sour grapes" would hurt.

       And the essential point is that only the party vote decides the numbers. So if Leader's Mate is scraping in on the list but Awkward Maverick could take their place by overturning an electorate result … no gain, but a grumpy caucus.
     • Belladonna 6.4.2

       3 November 2023 at 6:26 pm

       In 2011 Paula Bennett reversed Waitakere from Sepuloni's majority of 349 on the night, to a 9 vote majority

       https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/paula-bennett-reclaims-waitakere/OZNZMOXTMQBJNXF35LSSOP4SPM/

       I'd say anything under 500 is an entirely possible target.
       • lprent 6.4.2.1

         3 November 2023 at 11:04 pm

         If you look at the last few elections (as I did further up) you'll find that movements of under 15 for a candidate are the current range.

         Which figures, when I first monitored a count back in 1993, it was pretty chaotic and done in a mad rush. Same apparently with the recounts.

         But the rules, process and accounting have been significantly tightened up since then. It is still a paper system (and should remain so), but the paper is number tagged, scannable, and the whole recount process is forensically controlled by computer. It effectively has several cross-check systems built in from the electoral books, their stubs, an a manual page and line log.

         I don't think we will see another 100+shift in a recount unless the electorally incompetent like David Seymour (fool can never control his mouth on this and other topics he knows nothing about) goes and screws up the system with ill-conceived cost-cutting.
   • Michael P 6.5

     3 November 2023 at 6:15 pm

     A recount in Tanaki Makarau could could impact the number of seats. Only 4 votes in it so possible a recount could see Labour take one seat back off TPM. Won't change the makeup of Government though.
     • Louis 6.5.1

       3 November 2023 at 6:24 pm

       As Iprent pointed out @ 6.2 "It could eliminate one seat off the overhang."
7. Sanctuary 7

   3 November 2023 at 3:13 pm

   We've got a pretty starkly polarised parliament, the two big parties between them only got 64% of the vote and a bare plularity of all elegible voters.

   TPM vs ACT on the treaty is a recipe for major civil disorder. Goodness me, I thought doing my bit in 1981 would have meant a pass on needing to go and throw things at policemen again, but it looks like I may be wrong.
   • AB 7.1

     3 November 2023 at 3:23 pm

     Yes. The polarisation includes a growing disparity of views about the role and place of Maori in this country. From the quasi-autonomy envisaged by TPM through to ACT's assimilationist/cultural eliminationist Don Brash-inspired zombie on the right.
   • Descendant Of Smith 7.2

     3 November 2023 at 6:01 pm

     "We've got a pretty starkly polarised parliament, the two big parties between them only got 64% of the vote"

     We've got a pretty diverse parliament finally embracing MMP rather than first past the post.

     Pretty sure we wanted to stop the two major party domination.
     • Michael P 7.2.1

       3 November 2023 at 6:28 pm

       Come on it's still first past the post except the more extreme right wing on NAT's side is ACT and the more extreme left wing on Labour's side is Greens + TPM.

       In terms of diversity – Nah, as discussed in other threads.

       In terms of proportionality – More than 150,000 voters didn't end up with representation for their views in parliament. That's a fairly large number (5.5%)

       I guess is still better than FPP but needs tweaks. We will still end up with a National or Labour PM for the foreseeable future. (Although Labour seems to be doing it's damnedest to change that.)
       • Descendant Of Smith 7.2.1.1

         3 November 2023 at 7:17 pm

         I'd argue that the Greens and Maori Party are doing their best to change that. Labour has been neo-lib since 85.
       • George 7.2.1.2

         3 November 2023 at 7:18 pm

         They need to stop acting like is FPP and get it together so that people aren't marginalized by race, poverty and access to resources and the left leaning parties sort themselves into something resembling a govt and drag peters away from the goon show.
8. Sanctuary 8

   3 November 2023 at 3:18 pm

   By George, it wasn't even close in New Lynn in the end. What an extraordinarily incompetent electorate MP Deborah Russell turned out to be.
   • Belladonna 8.1

     3 November 2023 at 3:26 pm

     Margin in Mt Albert is 20. Which seems starkly unbelievable….
     • Sanctuary 8.1.1

       3 November 2023 at 3:29 pm

       Ricardo Mendez is a complete dick, I can't stand the guy. He knew exactly what he was doing in Mt. Albert – he wanted to hurt Labour in a symbolic seat by splitting the vote and giving the seat to National – why, I don't have a clue, except perhaps for him being a vindictive prick. Because the National candidate is that infamous racist Melissa Lee. Good one Ricardo.
       • SPC 8.1.1.1

         3 November 2023 at 3:37 pm

         There was no escape from Simeon Brown and Christopher Penk's favourite for being in a photo with companion.

         List no 13.

         https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-christopher-luxon-unveils-list/GL4GFUFMIRHYLISNHYCZS2OPFM/
       • Ghostwhowalks 8.1.1.2

         3 November 2023 at 4:32 pm

         Labour won Mt Albert !

         Greens run plenty of candidates in other seats that are labour friendly. Its how they boost the party vote by having a 'face' in an electorate

         VOTES COUNTED:	39,767	100.0%
         LEADING CANDIDATE:	WHITE, Helen	13,238
         2nd CANDIDATE:	LEE, Melissa	13,218
9. Anne 9

   3 November 2023 at 3:19 pm

   Left – 55 seats

   Right – 59 seats.

   Centre (includes the political loonies) – 6 seats.

   So, after all the shouting by MSM "massive landslide to NActs etc" there are only 4 actual seats between Left & Right.

   That should be the take-away from this election?
   • Sanctuary 9.1

     3 November 2023 at 3:27 pm

     That Labour + Greens + TPM + NZF offered a faint path to power and Labour were far, far to fast to just give up?
     • Anne 9.1.1

       3 November 2023 at 3:32 pm

       Would never have lasted the distance. Luxon's "coalition of chaos" would have proven an understatement. 😮
       • Sanctuary 9.1.1.1

         3 November 2023 at 3:47 pm

         True, but if it had happened the comments section of Kiwiblog alone would make it all worthwhile.
     • SPC 9.1.2

       3 November 2023 at 3:33 pm

       Not really, Peters said that NZF would not support a Labour led government.

       observor called it above …

       Labour still has a chance if a National led regime implodes and Peters spares the country an early election by allowing Greens and TPM to provide c and s to a Labour-NZF coalition.
       • weka 9.1.2.1

         3 November 2023 at 3:35 pm

         why would the Greens give confidence and supply to a coalition that included climate denial?
         • SPC 9.1.2.1.1

           3 November 2023 at 3:41 pm

           To remove a NACT government – Greens have already done it (2017-2020) and there was progress on climate action.
           • weka 9.1.2.1.1.1

             3 November 2023 at 3:53 pm

             neither Labour nor NZF were climate deniers in 2017. NZF is now. So my question stands.
             • SPC …

               3 November 2023 at 3:58 pm

               You seem to be presuming that a Labour-NZF coalition government policy in that area would be dominated by the position of the minor partner (which would know what would annoy those expected to provide c and s).

               NZF policy in that area of late is related to a tilt to the right to be part of a National led government.
               • weka …

                 3 November 2023 at 4:24 pm

                 NZF was a major block to climate action in 2017, and they weren't even denialists then.

                 The issue now isn't about dragging the chain, it's about enabling climate denier conspiracy theorists into government. NZF haven't gone rightwards, they've gone bonkerswards (although to my mind, the position on climate is still Peters grifting for votes).

                 I don't know what the GP would do in that situation, but this issue can't be ignored.
             • Corey …

               4 November 2023 at 1:43 am

               I voted green but if the greens were in a position to stop a Nat/act govt from inflicting brutal austerity on NZs poorest and to stop climate change action in NZ from going backwards under Nat/act and chose not to stop Nat/act.

               I'd never vote for them again and they'd be public enemy number one amongst the left, the disabled, the poor and gen x, gen y, gen z and gen a , who'd hold them responsible if Nat/act won an early election and dismantled education, welfare, disability, mental health, housing, healthcare programs and environmental protections.
               • weka …

                 4 November 2023 at 8:46 am

                 The whole 'I will never vote for them again' stuff is an own goal for lefties and progressives. Are you seriously telling me you would never vote for them despite them having the best and most comprehensive left wing policies of any party in parliament? Who would you vote for? Would you not vote for them in 2026 even if that meant the left losing the election again?
           • mikesh 9.1.2.1.1.2

             3 November 2023 at 4:18 pm

             I'm inclined to think that if that happened NZ1st would have no chance of getting back into parliament in 2026. But how many more years does Winston have anyway? And will NZ1st survive his departure from politics?
             • Belladonna …

               3 November 2023 at 4:20 pm

               And will NZ1st survive his departure from politics?

               Seems incredibly unlikely. Peters is (and always has been) a one man band.

               Much like New Labour didn't survive the departure of Anderton.
             • SPC …

               3 November 2023 at 4:31 pm

               It's Peters last dance – he will want the whole 3 years, rather than an early election.
               • Belladonna …

                 3 November 2023 at 6:28 pm

                 I thought it was his last dance in 2017. Clearly we should never rule him out until he's 6-feet under.
                 • SPC …

                   3 November 2023 at 6:33 pm

                   It seems he wanted 2 (one term) coalitions with both Labour and National …
       • observer 9.1.2.2

         3 November 2023 at 3:47 pm

         We've only had one case (1998) of a government imploding but avoiding an election, limping on with odds and sods (Alamein Kopu!).

         That's why any Luxon/Peters deal on the waka-jumping law is so important now.

         If Luxon signs up to it, then later on he could only deal with party leaders, not tempt individual MPs with baubles and bribes.
         • SPC 9.1.2.2.1

           3 November 2023 at 3:50 pm

           Yeah what happened in 1998 was very corrupt. It took to 2005 and the Brash-Key re-boot and the Kiwi vs Iwi campaign and a giant tax cut bribe to get them back in the game.

           If he gets it, National would need to bribe 5 of the caucus to change leader or bribe Peters personally.
         • alwyn 9.1.2.2.2

           4 November 2023 at 9:23 am

           "We've only had one case (1998) of a government imploding but avoiding an election".

           I would think that you have just seen such a thing with the most recent Labour Government during the last year.

           The number of people who blew up their careers, or who quit or had the odd huffy fit is unprecedented in my view. Ardern, Wood, Allan, Nash, Whaitiri, Sharma, Strange, Parker … The List seems to go on and on.
           • observer 9.1.2.2.2.1

             4 November 2023 at 1:32 pm

             Please read what I said.

             Did Labour lose their majority? No. Did they have to rely on individual MPs leaving other parties? No. Did they have to offer those MPs favours for their support on conf and sup? No.

             So, not the same as 1998 at all.

             The Shipley government was literally a different government from Bolger/Peters in 1996. Labour changed PMs but not parties. No comparison.
         • Ghostwhowalks 9.1.2.2.3

           4 November 2023 at 10:18 am

           "That's why any Luxon/Peters deal on the waka-jumping law is so important now."

           Doesnt need a deal as it still electoral law. And clearly they wouldnt vote to remove it

           Meka Whaitiri was a actual waka jumper but the Speaker acted legalistically saying he hadnt recieved a letter from her
           • observer 9.1.2.2.3.1

             4 November 2023 at 1:39 pm

             But keeping it is still a "deal". One which would be totally against the votes and speeches of National previously (see the Stuff link).

             https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300069404/dead-rat-spat-back-up-green-party-vote-to-repeal-waka-jumping-law-with-national-infuriating-winston-peters

             Nick Smith was enraged. Some reporter will be asking him if he is now.
         • DS 9.1.2.2.4

           4 November 2023 at 2:42 pm

           The other example is 1912, a change of government from Liberal to Reform in the middle of a term, without an election.

           https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1911_New_Zealand_general_election
     • George 9.1.3

       3 November 2023 at 7:20 pm

       If they had some nuts they would see the opportunity and grab it!
   • weka 9.2

     3 November 2023 at 3:30 pm

     yeah, the whole comparing to 2020 bollocks has been stupid af. 2020 was an outlier for obvious reasons. We're now back to how things generally are.
   • AB 9.3

     3 November 2023 at 3:33 pm

     Slight correction:

     • Right 60 seats (includes 1 overhang seat from Port Waikato)
     • Left 55 seats (includes 2 overhang seats from Maori electorates
     • Centre 8 seats (describing NZF as functionally centre as they will form coalitions with either Left or Right above. This does not mean ideologically centre)

     So yes it's actually reasonably close with a 6 seat difference if overhangs are disregarded, but still a terrible performance when there are so many pressing problems which the right can only make worse.
     • Anne 9.3.1

       3 November 2023 at 3:35 pm

       Forgot the by-election.

       Whoever came up with that ruling needs a kick up the bum.

       And yes, NZF 8 seats (6% of count).
       • Ghostwhowalks 9.3.1.1

         3 November 2023 at 4:28 pm

         Its the legislation oversight , not an officials 'ruling'
         • lprent 9.3.1.1.1

           3 November 2023 at 11:10 pm

           I can't really see a way around it in legal sense. You are voting for a candidate and the law cannot pick the possible winning candidates in advance. Only the voters can pick the winning candidate.

           Probably the best you could do is to argue that under MMP is that it makes no difference because of the party vote.

           But that makes a mockery of the under 5% threshold but got an electorate. Get rid of that and the thing becomes feasible in a equity sense.

           At that point it is only the dead candidate that loses out. It also handles the independent candidate issues.
           • Ghostwhowalks 9.3.1.1.1.1

             4 November 2023 at 10:12 am

             Simple fix . When an electorate candidate poll is cancelled due to a death the D'hont party list final distribution is for 1 less seat than the 120 max
             Remember the distribution is for all 120 seats , the list is merely those who dont get an electorate win.

             That extra seat is added back in the by election

             Can be legislated for
   • Michael P 9.4

     3 November 2023 at 6:31 pm

     Yep, almost like FPP.
   • Mike the Lefty 9.5

     3 November 2023 at 6:58 pm

     The intriguing situation is that Labour/Greens/Te Pati Maori could form a government with confidence and supply from NZ First.

     Impossible! I hear you shout!

     Well, Winston seems to be about to form a government with a person who openly called him the least trustworthy politician in the country and impossible to sit around a cabinet table with. Hipkins never called him that. It seems that the word "impossible" has an alternative meaning when used by a politician.

     It all reminds me of the Monty Python election sketch where an observer says "it went much as I predicted, except that the Silly Party won".

     There will be horse trading and bribes aplenty coming thick and fast in the next few days. No wonder National wants to keep it all behind closed doors. The public would be astounded to discover how they've been screwed by the political right.
     • George 9.5.1

       3 November 2023 at 7:25 pm

       I think that Winston would call that "pure speculation" and not worth his time and energy. He hasn't made any commitments to any party has he? All I hear is Luxon talking…
     • George 9.5.2

       3 November 2023 at 7:25 pm

       I think that Winston would call that "pure speculation" He hasn't made any commitments to any party has he? All I hear is Luxon talking…
   • gsays 9.6

     4 November 2023 at 9:48 am

     Another, perhaps more pertinent, way of looking at it is: Labour + Greens only just bigger result than Nats.
10. AB 10

    3 November 2023 at 3:51 pm

    Trying to think of a previous PM who was openly laughed at. Don't think there was one – not even Palmer's pedantry, Moore's hyperbolic flights or Bolger's dullness. Could be a first for Luxon depending on how things work out.
    • observer 10.1

      3 November 2023 at 4:00 pm

      If he could just spend some of National's dosh on a scriptwriter, it would help.

      "Strong and stable … strong and stable …". Every time. Eyes are rolling already.

      He's quoting a cliche, a running joke. He doesn't even seem to know it.

      Strong and stable – Wikipedia
11. tsmithfield 11

    3 November 2023 at 3:51 pm

    Good grief, these media organisaions aim for super hyped dramatic headlines to get attention.

    It had been predicted since the preliminary results that National would likely drop a seat or two. So, "bombshell" and "big upset" it definitely isn't.
12. observer 12

    3 November 2023 at 4:19 pm

    David Farrar has tweeted these numbers (I think they are correct).

    Special votes:

    Nat 34.7% Lab 26.9% Gre 14.8% ACT 7.3% Maori 4.9% NZ First 4.7%.
    So the Republic of Special has elected a Lab-Green government!

    There were many ludicrous commentary pieces saying special votes could swing right because of Covid policies, especially MIQ and mandates. (And perpetuating the myth that specials are overseas votes, when the vast majority are not).

    Much egg, many faces.
    • weka 12.1

      3 November 2023 at 4:25 pm

      is there an analysis anywhere of the make up of why people were special voting? Eg how many overseas, away from home, at work, disabled and so on.
      • Craig H 12.1.1

        3 November 2023 at 4:42 pm

        Not yet – the Electoral Commission expects that to be available from 27 November:

        Detailed information to be presented to the House of Representatives (E9), including allocation of list seats, voting place information and special vote statistics, is expected to be available by Monday 27 November.
      • Descendant Of Smith 12.1.2

        3 November 2023 at 5:04 pm

        Lots of people moving from place to place due to rent unaffordability. It is definitely something that is affecting schools – transient students some of whom get lost from education as their parents move around.

        Not all these kids can deal with a succession of new schools, new bullying a la Jack Reacher.
      • observer 12.1.3

        3 November 2023 at 5:38 pm

        I've had a look and haven't found anything very specific. Data on 2020 is affected by the "Covid election" (date announced then delayed, etc).

        As a rough guide …

        SunLive – Preliminary results for the 2023 General Election – The Bay's News First

        “Special declaration votes still to be counted are estimated at 567,000 which is 20.2 per cent of total votes. This includes an estimated 80,000 overseas and dictation votes. [note: they've underestimated the total specials]

        In 2020 there were 504,621 special votes including 62,787 overseas and dictation votes.”
    • Belladonna 12.2

      3 November 2023 at 4:31 pm

      So, roughly, National, ACT and NZF down on percentages in the Specials; Labour virtually unchanged; GP and TPM up significantly on percentages in the Specials.

      When this is added to the on-the-night totals – it smooths out a bit – since the Specials are only 1/5 of the total.

      If National have lost 2 seats, and the Greens gained 1 – the other must have gone to TPM, and been eaten up by the overhang. Or at least, I can't see any other way to account for it?

      Does this mean that there is only one overhang TPM seat? (i.e. their party vote entitles them to 5)?
      • Craig H 12.2.1

        3 November 2023 at 4:50 pm

        After election day, there was 1 overhang seat, held by TPM – 121 instead of 120.

        In the official results, there are currently 2 overhang seats, both held by TPM – 122 instead of 120.

        TPM was entitled to 3 seats by party vote, hence the 1 seat overhang in the preliminary results. They are now entitled to 4 seats by party vote, but won 2 more in the special votes, so they got the other list seat from National which was overtaken by the additional electorate seats.

        When the Port Waikato by-election is held, there will be 3 overhang seats – 123 instead of 120.
13. Peter 13

    3 November 2023 at 4:27 pm

    Labour had a massive majority and look what happened. Seems there was not the political nous to harness and harvest that, enough wily backroom boffins focused through the term.

    And just recently the polls saying most people wanting a capital gains tax?

    Anyway, it's back to business. The new MP in our area is going to sort out crime, fix education, fix our roads, get us the infrastructure we need, improve our health and health services and fix the cost of living situation. Exciting times!
    • Ghostwhowalks 13.1

      3 November 2023 at 4:42 pm

      Yes. Interesting results but could it be a push poll ?
      https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300979367/new-survey-shows-widespread-support-for-taxes-on-capital-gains-and-windfall-profits

      "Essential Research conducted the survey, which was commissioned by the lobby group Better Taxes for a Better Future. The group is campaigning for tax reform, and is backed by various unions and social advocacy groups including the Council of Trade Unions and Oxfam.”
      Hard to imagine 50% of Act voters supporting such taxes. very hard to imagine
    • Anne 13.2

      3 November 2023 at 4:42 pm

      And what area is that Peter? I want to follow this apparent genius. 🙂
      • Peter 13.2.1

        3 November 2023 at 6:21 pm

        Northland.
    • Michael P 13.3

      3 November 2023 at 6:34 pm

      They had a majority but nowhere near a massive one. In saying that, I guess any outright majority under MMP is massive..
14. Mike the Lefty 14

    3 November 2023 at 4:58 pm

    I think we can expect recounts in at least four seats: Mt Albert, Nelson, Te Atatu and Tamaki Makarau.

    Assuming they all stay as they are it makes for some interesting negotiations within the prospective governing parties.

    Even the (expected) win by National in Port Waikato won’t change the situation.

    Wouldn't mind being a fly on the wall at the National, ACT and NZ First party meetings today.
15. Drowsy M. Kram 15

    3 November 2023 at 4:59 pm

    Change in % of party votes (2023 vs 2017)

    Labour: -10 %

    National: -6.3 %

    NZF: -1.1 %

    TPM: +1.9 %

    Green: +5.3 %

    ACT: +8.1 %
    • Ghostwhowalks 15.1

      3 November 2023 at 5:27 pm

      Thanks for that . Yes, 2020 was an aberration much better to compare with 2017

      Those that went down is 17.4% , while up is 15.3% so more votes for the fringe parties this time
      • SPC 15.1.1

        3 November 2023 at 5:40 pm

        TOP went from 1% (2017) to 2.2%.

        The balance is largely the Liz Gunn party, the rest of the fringe the same meh nothing.
      • George 15.1.2

        3 November 2023 at 7:28 pm

        Can't keep calling them "fringe parties" any more, they have political clout.
        • Ghostwhowalks 15.1.2.1

          4 November 2023 at 10:06 am

          What clout is that when the party vote is 2% ?
    • Michael P 15.2

      3 November 2023 at 6:40 pm

      Those figures would suggest (but not necessarily determine) that a certain percentage of Labour voters from 2017 voted for ACT this time…. I can't understand that and if it is accurate then those people are psyvho's in my opinion.

      I am assuming here that of the 10% Labour lost, 7% went to Greens and TPM. Of course the other 3% could have gone to other smaller party's rather than ACT. I kind of hope so)
      • Belladonna 15.2.1

        3 November 2023 at 7:42 pm

        The left-over Labour voters (who didn't go GP or TMP) – the more 'right' voters – will have gone to National. And then the more 'right' of the National party will have gone to ACT. So 3% Labour to National, 9% National to ACT.
        Sort of – "they all rolled over, and one fell off"
      • Corey 15.2.2

        4 November 2023 at 2:06 am

        Labour had a lot of liberal gun owners who voted for it in 2017 and then voted act after 2019.

        But more concerning for the left: Labour and the Greens have bled so much 18-45 year old male support in the last 6 years.

        While canvassing and campaigning for both parties this election I was truly shocked by the amount of hate men showed for labour, even in poor areas and even progressive young men that I know usually voted labour or green (straight and gay, of all ethnicities ) , voted for top or "libertarian" act because the left have totally lost men.

        Men of all generations ethnicities and sexualities, rich and poor by and large, hate the left now. You cant really call men violent privileged predators 24/7 for 6 years expect them to vote for you ever again.

        That's something the left need to work on (winning back gay and straight makes) and fast because upper middle class liberal white women alone will not win us a majority in parliament.

        Universal economic policies would be a nice start
16. KJT 16

    3 November 2023 at 5:36 pm

    Oh dear. How sad!

    National and the Nazis will have a "handbrake".

    A good thing in this instance
17. Michael P 17

    3 November 2023 at 5:55 pm

    Close to 1 out of every 4 eligible and enrolled voters chose not to vote. I don't know if they have any stats for number of eligible voters who aren't enrolled but would imagine that if these 2 groups are combined we might be getting somewhere close to maybe 1 out of every 3 eligible voters not participating?

    Our MMP system has delivered the smallest of the main parties in terms of electoral seats (0) and 2nd smallest percentage wise (8%) as the party that will have a massive influence over the makeup of the next government.

    Proportional representation is obviously better than FPP but there need to be a few tweaks surely. It seems to happen fairly regularly that a smaller party with less support than the others ends up deciding who will govern. Not sure what can be done to change that scenario but they must be able to make things much simpler and more accurate in terms of proportionality.

    For example change the number of electorate seats to 70 and have 50 list seats. Then simply calculate so that a party's electorate seats plus list seats = the party's total percentage vote share maybe?

    My preference would be very simple and truly proportional. I would cut the number of total seats to 100 (that is more than enough for such a small country) and I would lower the threshold to 1% (still around 40,000 voters which is enough that they should be represented in my opinion). In that way you could simply allocate the number of seats directly according to the percentage of the vote received.

    Would need to lower the number of constituency MP's. Maybe make it 50 / 50 or something.. (or do away with them altogether)

    Lets quickly see what that would have looked like….

    National – 38 seats

    Labour – 27 seats

    Greens – 12 seats

    ACT – 9 seats

    NZF – 6 seats

    TPM – 3 seats

    OPPs – 2 seats

    NZL – 1 seat

    So apart from giving 2 more smaller party's some representation, this result wouldn't really change much at all. Nat and ACT would still need NZF for majority and Lab + Greens + TPM + Opps would still need NZF for majority.

    You have to hand it to Winston, he knows how to position his party in order to get max influence.

    (sigh….)

    At least the proportionality would be fair though…
    • SPC 17.1

      3 November 2023 at 6:15 pm

      No, there is need for a sufficient number of MP's for the Select Committee workload, regardless of population – it's the larger population that allows a reduced scale per head.

      And we made a mistake reducing the number of electorates with the move to MMP. . The ability to contact an electorate MP is an important part of representative democracy. Just as much as proportionality. And we have not just had a major population increase, but more more people needing help (economic and societal stress).

      I'd have 100 electorates and use preferential voting. And have 50 list MP's.

      As for the upstarts. I would use a progressive system. 2% 1 seat, 3 % 2 seats 4% 3 seats. At and after 5% there is the full entitlement rate 6 seats.
    • Craig H 17.2

      3 November 2023 at 9:47 pm

      Close to 1 out of every 4 eligible and enrolled voters chose not to vote. I don't know if they have any stats for number of eligible voters who aren't enrolled but would imagine that if these 2 groups are combined we might be getting somewhere close to maybe 1 out of every 3 eligible voters not participating?

      https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/official-results-for-the-2023-general-election/

      Under the key statistics heading:

      • Turnout of people who were enrolled to vote was 78.2% (82.2% in 2020, 79.8% in 2017).
      • The final enrolment rate was 94.7% (94.1% in 2020, 92.4% in 2017).

      Combining those (78.2% of 94.7%), 74% of eligible voters actually voted.
      • Ghostwhowalks 17.2.1

        4 November 2023 at 3:26 pm

        Sure 25% plus of those eligible werent enrolled or didnt vote

        But those that did statistically is very representative of the whole population with an infitesmal margin of error

        Remember polls have 1000 voters to give a 3.5% error margin

        Maybe some groups dont vote more than others : younger , maori or polynesian but its still means that those that did give a close approximation
18. Peter 18

    3 November 2023 at 6:24 pm

    I can't find if Brownlee got in.
    • observer 18.1

      3 November 2023 at 6:36 pm

      He did, on the list.

      But National have done poorly in bringing in new list MPs, ironically because Labour did poorly in electorates! So National have sort-of-accidentally got Garcia in New Lynn instead of candidates they wanted like James Christmas, touted as Attorney-General.

      And because of their list failures (or electorate successes) Luxon has already broken a pre-election promise:

      National lacks Indian representation in Parliament for second consecutive term | RNZ News
    • Belladonna 18.2

      3 November 2023 at 6:45 pm

      I think he is. Boyack taking Nelson and Twyford taking Te Atatu on the Specials, mean that those 2 National electorate candidates are taken out of Parliament – making up the 2 seat deficit that National lose from the on-the-night results. So they still get 5 list places, and Brownlee is no 5.

      However, if National do go for a recount, and win either of those electorates, then Brownlee would be out. NB: Cameron in Nelson has already declared he's going for a recount (unless Luxon talks him out of it).

      Melissa Lee in Mt Albert doesn't count for this purpose, if she takes the electorate on a recount, she just swaps her existing list place, for an electorate one – this doesn't affect the list places (i.e. National get 4 list places, instead of 5 – but Lee is no longer one of them, so Brownlee is now no. 4)

      Andrew Bayley misses out – but will come back in on the Port Waikato by-election.
    • Incognito 18.3

      3 November 2023 at 9:24 pm

      Yup

      Successful candidates (electorate and list)

      The names of the 122 successful candidates (electorate and list) are shown in alphabetical order under their parties in Attachment A.

      https://elections.nz/media-and-news/2023/official-results-for-the-2023-general-election

      https://elections.nz/assets/2023-General-Election/Attachment-A-successful-candidates-2023.pdf
19. Mike the Lefty 19

    3 November 2023 at 6:28 pm

    I see that David Seymour has already been forced to retract his earlier assertions that working with NZ First around the cabinet table would be impossible.

    Now he thinks its possible.

    Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaa! Bwaaaaaaaaaaaa!

    http://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/501639/act-s-david-seymour-reverses-rule-out-of-working-with-winston-peters-in-cabinet
    • Muttonbird 19.1

      3 November 2023 at 8:16 pm

      It makes him a liar because he made that statement while campaigning for an election. This is what he told the people and now he has decided what he said doesn't mean anything.

      Food. For thought.
20. Thinker 20

    3 November 2023 at 6:31 pm

    1. I downloaded the csv election results from elections.govt.nz and played about with the data. If MMP didn't include the list component (and only winning candidates entered parliament), National would have 61% by itself. A good example of how MMP gives strength to the smaller parties and stops the potential for an 80s or 90s style plutocracy, necessarily.

    2. Agree with those above who stood up for Deborah Russell. She works hard behind the scenes, possibly not as visible or media-savvy as some. But Russell didn't lose to Garcia, IMHO. Labour lost to National.

    3. I'm repeating myself but, in my opinion, Luxon made a Faustian Bargain with voters. Previously, I used the phrase "Big hat, no cattle". I've been accused of not providing sources, so I had to look this one up . In Deuteronomy 6:13, Lucifer says to Jesus "All these things I will give you if you fall down and do an act of worship to me". Luxon did something similar, I think, even coming down to making policy related to speed limits on rural roads.

    It was a recipe to win the election and Labour was pushing the proverbial uphill. In the absence of any "tyre or brake wear" and promising whatever he thought would get him an additional vote or two, voters' expectations have been well and truly heightened and the higher those expectations are, the further they will fall.

    Here's three upcoming examples/forecasts I'm putting forward:

    First, Luxon's criticising of how long the election count took will now be tested. Luxon wants to go to APEC. Peters doesn't have that time pressure and will use that to claw a bigger share of the power. So, does Luxon lose face by the length of time it takes him to negotiate a tripartite coalition, or does he lose face by how much power he gives to Peters (when any power is probably too much for the right's liking).

    Second, the promises National and ACT made to 'remove the race-based privileges'. The three parties are desperate to find some common ground and NZF appears to have been saying things that could be massaged into agreeing to that as a shared policy. But, with 6 (or 5) Te Pati MPs in parliament, the ruling coalition is likely to have a high bar to jump in terms of the impact on its reputation (with either Maori or progressive thinkers) before it will get any legislation through.

    Third, it appears that there are two sides to the gang tattoo legislation. The gangs have plenty of cash to front a legal challenge. Seems to me that Luxon's created expectations around banning gang patches and tattoos in a heartbeat. Luxon's going to look like Dirty Harry, forced to accept criticism for ignoring the legal rights of the punks. Unlike in Dirty Harry, however, Luxon won't be able to just blow the punks away.
    • Thinker 20.1

      3 November 2023 at 7:09 pm

      Forgot to add the link to point 3. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/australian-bikies-convicted-after-flaunting-tattoos-under-strict-new-gang-laws/7IQVOP26BBGKVI5YQ3UKKBDJHY/
    • George 20.2

      3 November 2023 at 7:34 pm

      Who on earth is going to saddle up and turn up at a tangihanga demanding that anyone with a patch pops it into the patch box by the door and collects afterwards ? Or that they take them off on the road…all against civil liberties and just plain wrong. I can’t see any police agreeing to this.
    • newsense 20.3

      3 November 2023 at 11:59 pm

      It’s literally a key component of her job to be able to communicate well, or be media savvy. No use being a secret hit at politics as a politician, because unfortunately it is a popularity contest. No name recognition or worse bad name recognition…

      You have to also ask as a senior MP who arrived with fanfare and was chosen in one of Labour’s safer seats why she was not chosen to have a role in Revenue when David Parker quit. It’s not a glowing endorsement from her bosses.

      I feel for her in that regard, in a popularity contest without much help. It is brutal, but New Lynn is a very important electorate bursting at the seams. I also couldn’t find much support for her above?

      I mean sure. How would she compare as an MP to Cunlife, Hunt and Goff? Or in Mt Albert how would Helen White (or Ms Belich for that matter) compare to Ardern, Shearer and Clark?

      It’s not her fault. It’s the failing of Labour. In that regard, she’s not a rising star, let’s be honest. But she’s probably a reasonable MP in an area where some of the leaders and stalwarts of the party have previously come from. Up against demographic changes, a strong well funded National machine, a National candidate with some name recognition now and a swing against Labour, her personal strength wasn’t enough.

      The Green Party are buzzing to represent the cities where they can. Can you find an enthusiastic Labour electorate close to the centre of town anywhere? Where the volunteers are as excited about their candidate and party?

      All I’ve seen from Labour is the kind of attack on Menendez from Sanctuary above and the idea that the Greens are spoiling things for Labour.

      The idea of a New Zealand being a multi-cultural cohesive society capable of dealing with our problems was lead in part by the strength of the Auckland team. So many strong generational, inspirational voices are gone.

      It was still in place at the floods it would seem, or at least the remainder was confident. That review better be honest and effective for Labour’s sake, not more fiscal responsibility for little to no purpose.
      • Craig H 20.3.1

        5 November 2023 at 12:05 am

        The Green Party are buzzing to represent the cities where they can. Can you find an enthusiastic Labour electorate close to the centre of town anywhere? Where the volunteers are as excited about their candidate and party?

        Christchurch and Dunedin.
    • CharlieB 20.4

      4 November 2023 at 6:25 am

      Normally I don't feel qualified to comment on here, and even in this instance I feel it's a wee bit nit-picky.. but..

      In Deuteronomy 6:13, Lucifer says to Jesus "All these things I will give you if you fall down and do an act of worship to me".

      Your Deuteronomy quote is wrong. Deuteronomy is a Torah book and so Jesus wasn't even born yet. Also, it's arguable if even satan was mentioned.

      Your actual quote comes from Matthew 4.9.

      It's a small point and not made to under mine your other points.

      But those other points do seem to be hinged on this quote where you are framing Luxon has having made a poor choice and forming a weak pact. So within that context I think it's important that your quote is as accurate when taken from the bible as it would be if taken from any other media.
      • weka 20.4.1

        4 November 2023 at 8:50 am

        completely agree and thanks for the correction.

        This is one reason we expect links when quoting, so that people can easily check them and see the context.
        • Thinker 20.4.1.1

          4 November 2023 at 6:24 pm

          Sorry, all,

          I googled in wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temptation_of_Christ#:~:text=Satan%20says%2C%20%22All%20these%20things,13%20and%2010%3A20). and (see the "Mountain" section, I misunderstood the reference – was too hasty.

          Yes, Matthew was the source and Jesus' response referred to God's advice in Deuteronomy.

          Mea Culpa.

          However, my point re: what is colloquially called a Faustian Bargain is still my opinion, as is my three suggestions of some upcoming difficulties.

          The former relates to Luxon's talking up expectations and thereby raising voters' expectations really high, to acquire their votes. Now, he is going to have a hard job to meet those expectations continually for a three-year period.

          I'm typing this soon after watching the 6 o clock news (TV1) where, for the first time since the results came out, all three leaders attended Diwali but did not conglomerate, which the media pointed out. Luxon was asked about the timing of negotiations and responded that it will effectively take as long as necessary, which reporters commented on. And this is day one of around 1,000 days.
          • CharlieB 20.4.1.1.1

            5 November 2023 at 8:15 am

            The over all context of the "Temptations of Christ" is a good allegory of where Luxon has found him self, and how he might possibly be dealing with the situation.

            Within that frame I would place both Seymour and Peters in the role of the temptator. Although, my money is on Peters as being the actual devil in the details.

            Right now I'm guessing they're at the point where Luxon is being shown all of the lands and peoples he will have control over and Peters is whispering in his ear.

            The story is also often seen as a precursor to the passion where Satan says something along the lines of "I'll be back at a more opportune time" implying a time when Chris(t) is of a weaker mind. I wonder how biblically literate Luxon really is, and if he's also seeing this analogy playing out the way we are?

            If so, i would imagine that's probably giving him a sever case of the willies.The passion was no walk in the park or picnic on the hill.. at least, not for Chris(t).

            I'm also not sure Luxon's Angels in the form of Willis, Stanford, Collings or Maureen Pugh can be relied on the save him when he falls..
21. observer 21

    3 November 2023 at 6:45 pm

    Unless I've misread it, National have NO new list MPs. They have kept their old ones (Brownlee, Goldsmith, Willis, Melissa Lee) but added none.

    That's a remarkable result for a party that has strongly increased its party vote from last time.
    • Mike the Lefty 21.1

      4 November 2023 at 5:44 pm

      Brownlee and Goldsmith.

      Two of the most unimpressive National MPs ever.

      Long parliamentary careers and have done sod all the whole time.

      On their front bench?

      (raucous mocking laughter).
22. observer 22

    3 November 2023 at 7:08 pm

    Let's get out our trumpets, blow on them and play a rousing tune of "told ya". Always fun.

    First prize: Bearded Git. Second: Observer (who?).

    Quote –
    “None of the analysts on the radio today would say that almost certainly Luxon will be beholden to Winston. They also said that Twyford was out, when he should easily win his seat on specials. And on the news at 3pm the announcer said that National had won Nelson-not for long I think.”

    OK, there shouldn't be any prizes for predicting the entirely predictable, but then again, a bunch of pundits couldn't do it … and they get paid.

    Election Night 2023 on The Standard « The Standard
23. Anne 23

    3 November 2023 at 7:48 pm

    Got to give it to Tova O'Brien. She's turned into a smart political commentator:

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/133232517/as-he-ignores-david-seymour-winston-peters-has-picked-up-a-far-stronger-hand

    "Welcome aboard Deputy PM, Winston Peters."

    Talk about rinse, repeat and rinse again.

    As for the pip-squeak… he's lost his mana. Peters will see to that.

    Its full steam ahead. Buy the popcorn now before we run dry.
    • SPC 23.1

      3 November 2023 at 8:25 pm

      “I said that at a time when it appeared unlikely we get to this particular point,” Seymour told Stuff.

      So Seymour believed what he read in this article by Mike Hosking.

      So there is someone who takes what he writes seriously.

      National-Act new government: Special votes won’t change a thing – Mike Hosking – NZ Herald
      • Incognito 23.1.1

        3 November 2023 at 10:11 pm

        There’s a blurred line between believing, wishful thinking, and morally corrupt manipulation through the media. For some …
24. Anne 24

    3 November 2023 at 8:46 pm

    I'm not a subscriber so can't read the item.

    Unfortunately there are a lot of people who take Hosking's reckons seriously. A few of them are relatives of mine. This, despite the number of times he has been proven wrong, but they never take that into account.
    • SPC 24.1

      3 November 2023 at 8:52 pm

      Me neither but there is this at the beginning to back up the link

      OPINION

      For the record, I am not 100 per cent convinced the special votes will go the same way as previous elections.

      We saw a mass rejection
    • lprent 24.2

      3 November 2023 at 11:32 pm

      With concern, ask them about how good their long-term memory is.

      Ask for examples more than 5 years old of when he was correct that could be checked with numbers. Make sure you have a tablet or computer near. Look it up.

      I got use this a lot with numbers of bikes on bike lanes, number of trucks, buses, and cars going over the bridge, maintenance costs on motorways.

      Plus of course the all-time-classic – the Northern Busway that was so confidently considered to be a white elephant that the C&R conservatives in the North Shore didn't build the commuter carparks for. 10 year anniversary and in 2023

      
25. SPC 25

    3 November 2023 at 9:19 pm

    Latest

    Peters wants to talk with Luxon and Seymour together (two headed right).

    (being raptured together would give the two a whole new look, but with the same love of money, more and more)

    https://c8.alamy.com/comp/GEHF92/zaphod-beeblebrox-stephen-moore-trillian-sandra-dickenson-der-ausserirdische-GEHF92.jpg

    Henare is going for a re-count and so is Lee in Mount Albert – this despite the fact that both are back on the list anyhow.

    The only change in each case is his TPM opponent would leave parliament and thus reduce the party to 5 seats and White would be gone – replaced on the list by the higher ranked Tracey McLellan (Banks Peninsular).

    In each the goal is the status of the electorate – a Maori seat in Auckland and Mount Albert (Savage, Clark and Ardern).

    Davis is staying on via the list.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/nz-election-final-result-live-updates-special-votes-counted-nationals-christopher-luxon-to-negotiate-with-act-and-winston-peters/S56WOQ3QUJE57IZAKJTFUDFZUE/
    • Anne 25.1

      3 November 2023 at 10:35 pm

      In each the goal is the status of the electorate – a Maori seat in Auckland and Mount Albert (Savage, Clark and Ardern).

      Not quite sure what you are referring to, but the past MPs in Mt.Albert, were (Freer, Clark, Ardern). The electorate was formed in 1946. The first MP died after one year. Warren Freer was the MP from 1947 until 1981 – 34 years. Savage died in 1940.
      • SPC 25.1.1

        3 November 2023 at 10:41 pm

        The area that the electorate contains is notable for having produced three Labour prime ministers – Michael Joseph Savage, who represented the Auckland West electorate that Mt Albert was created out of in 1946

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Albert_(New_Zealand_electorate)
        • Anne 25.1.1.1

          4 November 2023 at 10:35 am

          Got it.
    • Belladonna 25.2

      4 November 2023 at 11:08 am

      Cameron in Nelson has also announced he's going for a recount.

      In this case, the incumbent/challenger has to win the seat, or be out of parliament – neither are high enough on their respective party lists to get in via that route.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/501640/recount-on-the-cards-in-nelson-after-labour-s-rachel-boyack-wins-by-29-votes
26. observer 26

    4 November 2023 at 5:04 pm

    24 hours on. let's see how it's going …

    Watch: Winston Peters snubs reporters after election result confirmed | Stuff.co.nz

    "Both Luxon and Peters attended the opening ceremony of the Auckland Diwali Festival on Saturday, but neither were keen to speak to reporters there. …

    Peters on Saturday refused to answer any questions, repeatedly telling Stuff to “naff off” before walking around the festival site."
    • Mike the Lefty 26.1

      4 November 2023 at 6:29 pm

      I remember during the 1993 election when we were voting whether to adopt MMP. The anti-MMP lobby used to tell us that it would be parties "doing smokey backroom deals" under MMP.

      Thirty years later, they might now be proved right.

      Just substitute the word "dodgy" for "smokey" and you know it.

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