A Trump-led Withdrawal from NATO

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, February 13th, 2024 - 37 comments
Categories: Donald Trump, International, us politics, war - Tags:

Just as he did in 2017, Trump is clear in 2023 that the United States should withdraw from NATO.

Trump has a reasonable shot at winning the United States Presidential elections in November, and with a likely stronger Republican hold on the Senate he really can make good on it.

So what would actually happen? We now know what the world looks like when the United States withdraws or chooses not to put troops on the ground: first it looks like Ukraine, and then at the end it looks like Afghanistan. So this is a threat affecting tens of millions of lives that is real already. 

Let’s start with the European ability to defend itself without the United States.

Some member countries will adopt a “wait and see” approach focused on persuading the United States to return to NATO. They would offer concessions that were previously unthinkable before, from trade to banking to i.p. protection to tax to energy. That is the bargaining approach to crisis, with the unfortunate message for transatlantic relations that a threat to abandon NATO might actually yield some results. I would expect countries that would take this position would include the United Kingdom, Ireland, and frontline countries Poland, Germany, and Moldova.

A scenario in which Russia foments civil unrest in Kaliningrad which then spills over into Estonia would be a quandary because many NATO members would struggle to agree to invoke the principle of collective defence under Article 5 in this grey-zone scenario (although it close-to replicates how it went in Ukraine). Instead one would expect Article 4 to be invoked which requires only consultations in case the security or independence of a NATO member state is threatened – paired with doubling down on the sanctions against Russia already in place.

Without U.S. security guarantees, the credibility of Article 5 and the mutual defence commitment gets more questionable.

Now let’s push it a bit harder, into a post-Trump re-election scenario: Russia decides that Poland needs to be directly punished for supplying Ukraine with arms and all other kinds of support. Poland is targeted with missiles, but not shot at. Very similar to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Once US missile and nuclear assets are withdrawn, Europe is exposed. Europe would likely remain vulnerable for years to come in such a scenario.

The question then is who would fill the deterrent defence gap in Europe, since the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown clearly that the whole of Europe has relied on the United States military for decades and has not prepared to be independent of the United States at all. Germany will not be able to develop nuclear weapons due to domestic opposition to nuclear anything. The United Kingdom and France could expand their nuclear arsenal and reach, but that takes time and success with the French to do this is by no means assured even after the Franco-German Aachen Treaty of 2019. Nuclear weapons are not likely to proliferate in Europe for some time if at all, and only if the whole of Europe is prepared to pay for them. That would be great if Russia and China were prepared to agree to a whole new non-proliferation treaty and yet have no motivation to do so.

The French would prefer a new E.U.-centred collective defence structure, heading towards a stronger E.U. The U.K. even now outside the EU would likely presume it would have far stronger post-NATO influence given its significant military manufacturing and servicing capabilities and won’t just sign up to any old post-US NATO. Many NATO countries would oppose strong UK redesign but particularly Turkey, Serbia, Hungary, and the Scandinavian bloc. Like other major international agreements Trump pulled out of, it’s more likely that the command structure of NATO would stay in place, with an opt-in clause for the US to return. NATO is unlikely to ever be reinvented.

European nations have had plenty of time to sustain their public about the security and defence of Europe. They have been warned both by the US and by Russia about what threats to their security are growing. Even now, military production in France and Germany is woefully short of being able to supply Ukraine with what it needs despite nearly two years of war and material commitments.

As we all must do, Europe needs to think the unthinkable. If the NATO command structure were to be dismantled, troops withdrawn, and missiles shipped back homeside, remaining NATO members would immediately have to provide alternatives. Some like Scandinavian countries are prepared. Most others aren’t.

European countries should also make a concerted effort to establish stronger diplomatic ties with Belarus. This would go a long way to reassuring Eastern European member states. Others like Spain and Portugal will not feel the threat of invasion nor the reason to collectively support a NATO replacement. Diverging threat perceptions – even after the Russian invasion – are still clear across Europe as it is. Serbia, Hungary and Turkey will likely find reasons to establish good workarounds with Russia even now.

There would need to be a new, smaller version of NATO that has a bilaterial defence pact with Europe and the United States. The United States may find, for example, that it still needs the EU to contain China and Russia with trade sanctions. It may also find that it still needs Canada and Denmark to shore up the Arctic as a front of potential defence. It may have to figure out for itself whether it is as independent from the rest of the world as it thinks it is. It would also freshen the air for new thinking about the real necessity of strong military alignments across the entire northern hemisphere. It would also provide a massive opening for a reassessment about the likelihood of further invasions by countries other than Russia, and the real impact of military invasion without near-automatic US protection.

We haven’t even got started on whether the US would break out of AUKUS as well, but we need to prepare for that as well here.

A world without the default US military protection is the very hard thinking that must be prepared for in a Trump-re-elected United States of America. 

37 comments on “A Trump-led Withdrawal from NATO ”

  1. mikesh 1

    It is more likely Europeans would seek a new friendly relationship with Russia, similar to that which was recently, until foolishly abandoned, enjoyed by Finland. They might well seek to include Russia in the EU, perhaps bringing in Ukraine as well.

  2. adam 2

    No matter who wins in the USA, this retreat from the world is going to carry on. Biden has carried it out as much as trump did. Albeit without the antagonism, and hate speech. I can't see this retreat stopping anytime soon, for any reason.

    One point on Europe, and one to keep an eye on to really stop Russia is Poland. The Polish military are no slugs, and they have seen what has been happening in Ukraine.

    Finally, not sure Turkey are part of Europe under Erdoğan, as it would appear they have their own agenda.

  3. eE.Burke 3

    I believe the point OMB is making is that virtually none of the members of NATO other than the US meet either the financial commitments they signed on to or the development and maintenance of their defense capabilities.

    The net result of that is that the US gets the thankless task of picking up the tab and having to tip in vast resources to compensate for the recalcitrance of people who should know better. The US has kept a standing army of ~100,000 in Europe for eighty years – thats the price of peace in Europe. Compare that to the total personnel of Australia ~57,000 and New Zealand ~9,000.

    He has exactly the same beef with the UN which would collapse instantly if the long suffering American taxpayers stopped underwriting it.

    The real disgrace is the successive governments of NATO countries not living up to their own commitments and being willing to live comfortably on the US dime. Good on OMB for calling em on it.

    waits for the pointless debate to start about how dare the evil yankees reverse colonise Europe

    • joe90 3.1

      I believe the point OMB is making is that virtually none of the members of NATO other than the US meet either the financial commitments they signed on to or the development and maintenance of their defense capabilities.

      Arse.

      Estonia (2.73%), Lithuania (2.54%), Finland (2.45%), Romania (2.44%), Hungary (2.43%) and Latvia (2.07%) are all exceeding the alliance's guideline for defence expenditure.

      Poland is the alliance's biggest spender as a share of GDP, contributing 3.90%, spending even more than the US (3.49%) in second and Greece (3.01%) the next closest.

      The nations falling short of the alliance's target are France (1.90%), Montenegro (1.87%), North Macedonia (1.87%), Bulgaria (1.84%), Croatia (1.79%), Albania (1.76%), Netherlands (1.70%), Norway (1.67%), Denmark (1.65%), Germany (1.57%), Czech Republic (1.50%), Portugal (1.48%), Italy (1.46%), Canada (1.38%), Slovenia (1.35%), Turkey (1.31%), Spain (1.26%), Belgium (1.13%) and Luxembourg (0.72%).

      https://www.forces.net/news/world/nato-which-countries-pay-their-share-defence

    • mikesh 3.2

      The US has kept a standing army of ~100,000 in Europe for eighty years – thats the price of peace in Europe.

      How beneficent of them.

      I trust you don't mind a bit of sarcasm, now and then.

    • Michael P 3.3

      The 2% of GDP commitment was / is a guideline not a signed up to requirement.

      Regardless, 11 out of 31 countries are at 2% or above now, which is somewhat more than "…virtually none…".

      That number of countries is expected to rise significantly this year. (Probably mainly due to Russian aggression and countries needing to re-arm after donating weapons and equipment to Ukraine.)

      As an aside, The US is way down the list of NATO countries when it comes to aid to Ukraine as a percentage of GDP.

      NATO countries have spent USD120 billion over the last two years on US weapons and equipment. I can't imagine the US risking potential loss of revenues and jobs.

      But probably most importantly is that Trump craps on about lots of things he's gonna do. Doesn't mean he ends up doing most of them (eg – immediately repealing Obamacare, Building the wall and making Mexico pay for it, etc). He's probably just vote chasing.

      Congress is or has passed a law that prevents a president from withdrawing from NATO without 2/3 support in congress so unlikely he will be able to even if he wanted too.

    • SPC 3.4

      The USA promised 0.7% GDP foreign aid back in the 1970's – so did we by the way.

      The USA would not like to lose its UNSC veto, it could hardly sit on the UNSC without paying its contribution – nor would the UN remain in New York.

      Leaving the UN would either make the nation a pariah, as it would continue without the USA, or they would seek to form a rival body.

  4. Sanctuary 4

    One thing no one considers is it suited US interests post-USSR to keep Europe dependent on US power for it's security. The United States hardly insisted on the NATO 2% target, and anyway collective European spending on defense is about 50% of the US spending even before the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

    A reneging on the commitment to defend Europe is a lose-lose for the United States. Either Russia – a grossly corrupt gangster petrostate run by a dictator with a huge chip on his shoulder and a messianic vision that is utterly opposed to democracy and freedom – will gain massive influence in Europe at US expense or the Europeans will simply cease to rely on the USA and go their way – with knock effects in foreign policy. Both outcomes would severely weaken US power and influence.

    Additionally, the withdrawl of US support for NATO would make a general European war between Russia and rump NATO powers almost inevitable should Ukraine be overrun, since Putin's bloodthirsty irredentism won't be slaked by absorbing Ukraine into Russia – his eyes will swivel to the Baltic states and even Finland next. That raises the question – would public opinion let NZ stand aside as a neutral if the UK got involved in a huge and just war with Russia over, say, protecting the Baltic states?

    Finally, a general reealisation that the US can't be relied on anymore will trigger a massive proliferation of nuclear weapons, since states that previously felt secure under the US nuclear umbrella will develop their own nuclear weapons as the final guarantor of their sovereignty.

    • roblogic 4.1

      Like most dictators, Putin ^needs^ this war to keep his people in a state of crisis and unable to question his regime.

      Trump wants to emulate Putin and Kim Jong-Un. But he needs an easier war, probably Venezuela

  5. mikesh 5

    Additionally, the withdrawl of US support for NATO would make a general European war between Russia and rump NATO powers almost inevitable should Ukraine be overrun,

    With no more proxy wars to be fought against NATO, I would think it more likely peace would reign throughout the region.

    would public opinion let NZ stand aside as a neutral if the UK got involved in a huge and just (sic) war with Russia over, say, protecting the Baltic states?

    I would hope so. However I don't really see anyone starting a war against Russia in the event of NATO's disestablishment. And I don't see Russia having any interest in counties beyond the two seas.

  6. joe90 6

    , I would think it more likely peace would reign throughout the region.

    Pax Europaea.

    NATO, the EEC and the EU have brought he longest period of continuous peace to Western Europe since Pax Romana.

    • mikesh 6.1

      NATO, the EEC and the EU have brought he longest period of continuous peace to Western Europe since Pax Romana.

      It probably would have happened anyway, even without the assistance of the EEC, the EU, and NATO.

      • joe90 6.1.1

        And the Ukrainian Anti-Soviet resistance, the Soviet invasions of Hungary and Czechoslovakia, conflicts in Cyprus, the Greek civil war, multiple conflicts in the former Yugoslavia, two Chechen wars, conflicts in Dagestan, Georgia, Albania, Transnistria, Ukraine, Donbass, Crimea and Nagorno-Karabakh.

        Did they just happen, too?

        • mikesh 6.1.1.1

          Did they just happen, too?

          Sure. Lots of wars all over the place. Africa, the Middle East, South America, China.

    • Francesca 6.2

      While dishing out a fair bit of murder and mayhem to other parts of the world

      Nice folk!

  7. KJT 7

    How the USA does social spending. Constant war!

    Their economy would collapse without it.

    Not to mention what they would do with all their angry young unemployed, if not for the army?

    Ironically the worlds largest "Socialist" State run enterprise, is the US military!

    Imagine if all that effort and capital was used to reduce poverty and increase social capital in the USA and the world, instead of bombing children?

    • roblogic 7.1

      The behaviour of bloodthirsty empires, and the vampire squid of global capitalism, calls to mind a few verses of Revelation ch. 17

      Then the angel carried me away in the Spirit into a wilderness. There I saw a woman sitting on a scarlet beast that was covered with blasphemous names and had seven heads and ten horns. The woman was dressed in purple and scarlet, and was glittering with gold, precious stones and pearls. She held a golden cup in her hand, filled with abominable things and the filth of her adulteries. The name written on her forehead was a mystery:

      Babylon the great
      The mother of prostitutes
      And of the abominations of the earth.

      (this is not a critique of prostitutes per se, but of the Babylon system in which we live)

      • SPC 7.1.1

        Religious symbolism analysis alert …

        Every empire centre's the capital coinage of the trade system on itself and every nation subject to its embrace is an exploited client/vassal/cash cow.

        The nations themselves are not truly bound to the imperial cult and wait for the time to demonstrate faithlessness by returning to their own sovereignty.

        This can either be done collectively by rising up together, or waiting for the empire to decline and fall of its own accord, as they have done in the past.

        The narrative goes on later …

        … however those whose faith was/is based on a national identity are inclined to conclude that such events are acts of God to enable “restoration” (OT model and thus for the church – the redeemed world).

  8. Jh 8

    For the US to pull out of NATO, doesnt that require 2/3rd of the house to vote in favour?

  9. SPC 9

    The related matter is how the "PNAC state" still has credibility as a security leader, after what it did in the ME – regime change in Iraq facilitating the rise of Islamic State, two failed states in Libya and Syria, leaving the dominant regional power Iran operating a war by proxy via armed non state actors (Hizbollah, Iraqi Shia militias and Houthi – thus Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen are, or might well also become failed states).

    Regardless of Trump (remember both he and Biden walked away from the women of Afghanistan), there is cause for NATO to think of Europe sans USA. And for Oz/us and India – ASEAN – Japan-Korea to think European NATO+.

    The USA has emboldened a Russian/Iranian/China axis of would be regional hegemons – they need to be contained, whether the USA goes isolationist, or not.

    Being dependent on the USA means handing them leadership when they their competence is often questionable.

    We should have real concern of them blundering into a Ukraine style event with China – their talk of democracy in Hong Kong incited the crackdown and now they moved onto Taiwan.

    Our region requires peace on the Korean peninsular, an agreement over Taiwan as an autonomous region within China and Chinese recognition of the international territorial borders and 200 mile economic zones of ASEAN nations in the South China sea. All 3 are UN matters … and there is no reason to expect successful American diplomatic leadership.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/02/12/japan-rahm-emanuel-china-military/

  10. Mike the Lefty 10

    Did I not hear Trump saying on television a couple of nights ago that Europe "deserved" to be attacked by Russia?

    I might not have heard it in context but it certainly filled with me dread.

    What kind of nutjob are the Americans supporting for re-election?

    • mikesh 10.1

      that Europe "deserved" to be attacked by Russia?

      Given that they are supporting Uncle Sam and his evil empire they probably do deserve to be attacked by Russia. Still, I wouldn't want to see that happen, and it probably won't.

      • joe90 10.1.1

        they probably do deserve to be attacked by Russia.

        And the seven-year-old girl from Bucha whose exhumed body was found to contain traces of semen believed to belong to several different men?

        Did she deserve to be attacked by Russia?

        • mikesh 10.1.1.1

          Did she deserve to be attacked by Russia?

          You are quite right to ask that. At seven years of age she could hardly be considered a supporter of Uncle Sam.

          Don't ask silly out of context questions.

          • joe90 10.1.1.1.1

            she could hardly be considered a supporter of Uncle Sam.

            But the folk whose bodies were left strewn in the streets of Bucha after the Russian execution spree in 2022?

            They were likely supporters of Uncle Sam so they deserved to be attacked by Russia, right sport.

            /

  11. Barfly 11

    Are you taking the piss?

    A scenario in which Russia foments civil unrest in Kaliningrad which then spills over into Estonia

    Kalingrad borders Lithuania and Poland it's a long swim to Estonia

    Many NATO countries would oppose strong UK redesign but particularly Turkey, Serbia, Hungary, and the Scandinavian bloc

    Serbia isn't in NATO

    Some like Scandinavian countries are prepared. Most others aren’t.

    Poland is acquiring

    !000 Soth Korean K2 Black Panther Tanks

    250 M1A2 Abrams Tanks

    1400 Borsuk IFV"S

    486 HIMARS rocket launchers

    690 K9A1 Thunder self-propelled 155mm howitzers

    96 Apache attack helicopters

    32 F35's

    An extra 32 F16';s to go with the 48 they already have

    There's probably more but that's all I can think of ATM

    I consider this is unlike you in terms of accuracy so I was honestly wondering if you were taking the piss?

  12. Adrian 12

    Consider that the US owns a large portion of European productive capacity, from Ford, GM and a huge amount of IT concerns, walking away from Europe would collapse the US economy with all the ensuing chaos that would entail. The comment that it doesn’t do enough for its poor is fair but also consider that the military employs, trains and educates a huge number of the potential unemployed poor. Walking away makes no sense at all, or about as much as Brexit for the UK.

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  • Gordon Campbell on National passing bad policies under urgency
    If National really had faith in its welfare policies, it wouldn’t be ramming them through Parliament under urgency – a step that means the policies can’t be exposed to select committee debate, public submissions, expert commentary, media scrutiny and all the normal democratic processes that this coalition appears to hold ...
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 16-February-2024
    It’s Friday so once again here”s our roundup of some of the articles that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt looked at the Government’s war on Auckland. On Tuesday Matt covered the ongoing issues with the rail network. On Thursday Matt ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • The Dawn Chorus for Friday, February 16
    The six things to note in my view at 6.30 am on Friday, February 16 in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy are: Read more ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Iron In Her Soul.
    “Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the abyss, the abyss gazes also into you.” – Friedrich NietzscheTELEVISION NEW ZEALAND is to be congratulated for inviting Chloe Swarbrick onto its Q+A current affairs show. The Green MP for Auckland Central is the odds-on ...
    4 days ago
  • Dig this
    Resources Minister Shane Jones yesterday told a breakfast hosted by Energy Resources Aotearoa precisely what they wanted to hear. “We campaigned to rehabilitate relegitimise and stand up for working families who derive their income,  derive their hope and derive purpose in regional New Zealand through a flourishing, growing, forward-leaning energy ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #7 2024
    Open access notables Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, van Westen et al., Science Advances: Here, we show results of the first tipping event in the Community Earth System Model, including the large climate impacts of the collapse. Using these results, we develop a physics-based and ...
    5 days ago
  • A rejection of the rule of law
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Shrugging-Off The Atlas Network.
    Upholding The Status-Quo: The Left’s election defeat is not the work of the Atlas Network. It is not even the work of David Seymour and Act. It is the work of ordinary citizens who liked the Right’s stories better than they liked the Left’s. If the Right’s stories were made ...
    5 days ago
  • BARRIE SAUNDERS: Treaty Principles – all rather problematic
    Barrie Saunders writes – When ACT’s leader said they wanted legislation to state what the Treaty principles mean, my first thought was this will be controversial and divisive.  Clearly it is. The first reference to the principles of the Treaty were contained in the 1975 Act establishing the Treaty of ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Luxon Rejects The “Rejection Election” At His Peril.
    Fitting Right In: National retailed a reactionary manifesto of right-wing, racially-charged policies to the electorate throughout 2023. No talk back then of ignoring the overwhelming political preferences of the voting public and making a strong stand on principle. If Luxon’s pollsters and focus-groups were telling him that the public was ...
    5 days ago
  • Valentine’s Day went unnoticed on the Beehive website – but it is not “baa, humbug” to celeb...
    Buzz from the Beehive None of our ministers – a quick check with the Beehive website suggests – found cause to mention, let along celebrate, Valentine’s Day. But two ministers – Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson – ensured that National Lamb Day did not pass ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Are You A Leftist?
    Nothing To Lose But Our Chains: The emancipatory movement which the Left, understood correctly, has always been, cannot accommodate those who are only able to celebrate one group’s freedom by taking it from another. The expectation, always, among leftists, is that liberty enlarges us. That striking-off a person’s shackles not ...
    5 days ago
  • An unlawful directive
    An interesting question in the Parliamentary written questions feed today, from Jan Tinetti to the Minister of Education: Has she or her Office directed the Ministry of Education to not release Official Information Act material prior to the full twenty working days, if so, why? Given that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • I’ve been doing this all wrong
    Here are six words that are not easy to say but god it can feel good when you finally say them:I’ve been doing this all wrongFive years ago today I said to myself:What if I'm doing this all wrong?Five years ago today I said to Karren: I think I’m going to ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
    This is a re-post from RealClimate by Stefan Rahmstorf A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course.” The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals ...
    5 days ago
  • Valentines from ACT.
    Some of us make a big deal out of Valentine’s Day. We’ll buy the flowers, eye watering though the price spike might be. Say the things we should be saying anyway, although diminished by being scheduled for delivery. Some of us will even write long free-form newsletters with declarations of ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Tax cuts paid for by 13k more kids in poverty
    MSD advised the government that the indexation change it passed under urgency last night is likely to put around 7,000 extra children (and potentially up to 13,000) into poverty. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government has reverted indexation for main beneficiaries to price inflation from wage inflation under ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Fuel Tax Fight and Rail Fail update
    The two stories we covered at the start of the week continue to be in the headlines so it’s worth looking at the latest for each of them. Regional Fuel Tax Mayor Wayne Brown promised some ‘argy-bargy’ over the government’s decision to cancel the Regional Fuel Tax and he’s ...
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Arsonists
    Today, a major fire broke out on the Port Hills in Ōtutahi. Like its 2017 predecessors, it is almost certainly exacerbated by climate change. And it is still burning. The present government did not start the fire. But they piled the tinder high last time they were in power, gutting ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • I don’t know!
    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411 7 examples And who actually makes the decisions? Vladimir Putin: I don’t know. America is a complex country, conservative on the one hand, rapidly changing on the other. It’s not easy for us to sort it all out.   Tucker Carlson: Do you think Zelensky has the freedom to negotiate the settlement to this conflict? Vladimir Putin: I don’t know the details, of course it’s difficult for me to judge, but ...
    6 days ago
  • Fresh thinkers
    Fresh thinking will always give you hope.It might be the kind that makes you smite your brow, exclaiming: Why didn't we think of that! It's obvious!It might be the kind that makes you go: Dude you’re a genius.Sometimes it will simply be Wayne Brown handing Simeon Brown his weasel ass ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • It is not about age, it is about team.
    Much attention has been directed at Joe Biden’s mental lapses and physical frailty. Less attention has been spent on Donald Trump’s cognitive difficulties and physical limitations, with most focus being devoted to his insults and exaggerated claims (as if they … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • ROBERT MacCULLOCH: Fletcher Building – it is time to break up NZ’s most useless company.
    Robert MacCulloch writes –  Gosh, the CEO of Fletcher Building, Ross Taylor, says today’s announcement of a half-year loss of $120 million for the company is “disappointing” and was “heavily impacted” by the Convention Centre losses. He must be crying all the way to the bank (to quote Las ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Mortgage rates seen high for even longer
    Government and borrower hopes for early mortgage cost relief look likely to be thwarted. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Stronger-than-expected US inflation data out overnight is expected to delay the first US Federal Reserve rate cut into the second half of 2024, which in turn would hold mortgage rates ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Member’s Day
    Today is a Member's Day, the first of the new Parliament. And to start the Parliament off, there's a bunch of first readings. A bunch of other bills have been postponed, so first up is Duncan Webb's District Court (Protecting Judgment Debtors on Main Benefit) Amendment Bill, followed by Katie ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Three Waters go down the legislative gurgler – but what should we make of Local Water Done Well?
    Buzz from the Beehive Local Government Minister Simeon Brown – it seems fair to suppose – was flushed with success after the repeal of Labour’s divisive and unpopular Three Waters legislation. As he explained, repealing this legislation is a necessary first step in implementing his government’s Local Water Done Well ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on five of Luxon’s Gaza absurdities
    Earlier this week, PM Christopher Luxon met with 48 public service CEOs to make sure they were on board with his plans to cut spending on public services so that National can proceed to give the revenue away to those New Zealanders least in need. This wasn’t the only absurdity ...
    6 days ago
  • Love and the Fairer Sex.
    This morning I woke early with many thoughts in my head of things said, events of the week, things that matter. I’m afraid none of them involved Seymour, Willis, or Luxon so if you’re looking for something political maybe take the day off and come back tomorrow. You won’t find ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • He stood up to Muldoon and Lange and the Fji army
    Gerald Hensley, who died aged 88 on Saturday, was the key official who presided over the tumultuous events that followed the election of the Lange Labour Government in 1984. He was also instrumental in helping a key Fijian official escape the country during one of the 1987 coups. A diplomat ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago
  • At a glance – Has Arctic sea ice returned to normal?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    7 days ago
  • Halo dunia!
    Selamt datang di WordPress. Ini adalah pos pertama Anda. Sunting atau hapus, kemudian mulai menulis! ...
    7 days ago
  • The PM wants a turnaround
    As a treat today I have lined up a favourite in the music slot. I love Turnaround, I cannot hear it too often, and I feel in need of a treat when I make myself listen to the Prime Minister the way I did this morning.He too, has favourites that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • The PM wants a turnaround
    As a treat today I have lined up a favourite in the music slot. I love Turnaround, I cannot hear it too often, and I feel in need of a treat when I make myself listen to the Prime Minister the way I did this morning.He too, has favourites that ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • ELE LUDEMANN: Trusting locals
    Ele Ludemann writes- A government-knows-best and predilection for central control was another unfortunate feature of the 2017-2023 Labour governments. One of the worst polices as a result of that was what started as Three Waters and became several more. The National-led government is much more trusting of locals ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago
  • Legislation to flush away Three Waters has become a certainty – but we must wait for details on th...
    Buzz from the Beehive A  three-day information drought was broken, just after Point of Order published yesterday’s Buzz from the Beehive, and two significant ministerial announcements were made. First, the Budget will be delivered on 30 May, telling us which genuine savings have been made by eliminating waste and which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • Rise of the Lobbyists.
    An unpopular opinion, I love Auckland.Not so much the transport or the house prices - those are pretty dire. But there’s a lot to like. We’ve a vibrant, multicultural city in a beautiful location with, mostly, friendly locals. From the native bush of the Waitakeres to the Gulf islands, it’s ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The holes in National’s water reform pipes
    Young renters just have to watch on as pipes keep failing and the Government and councils point fingers at each other, because all the incentives are for ratepayers to block rates increases, water meters, water charges and the creation of new entities. File Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The National-ACT-NZ First coalition ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • After years of stability, Antarctica is losing ice
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by SueEllen Campbell Until recently, Antarctica’s ice has seemed surprisingly stable. In contrast to the far north, the southern continent’s massive ice sheets, glaciers, ice shelves (ice that floats on the ocean), and seasonal ice appeared to be reliably frozen: Enough snow fell ...
    1 week ago
  • Auckland’s Persistent Rail Issues
    Over the last few weeks in our weekly roundup we’ve commented on the frequent delays and cancellations that have occurred on the rail network this year since the rail network went back into full operation on the 22-Jan – with Kiwirail proclaiming they had ‘successfully delivered summer holiday infrastructure upgrades ...
    1 week ago
  • National calls in its preferred consultants (again)
    The Government has called in the same economics consultancy that worked on its aborted foreign buyers’ tax to now help design a replacement for Three Waters. Castalia Advisors’ Managing Director, Andreas Heuser, is to head a Technical Advisory Group that Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says is to “contribute specialist ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • Daughters of Derbyshire: Accepted
    A very nice bit of news on the writing front. My 4300-word historical fiction piece, Daughters of Derbyshire, has earned itself an acceptance. The acceptance? The Lesbian Historic Motif Podcast: https://alpennia.com/lhmp/essays/lesbian-historic-motif-podcast-index-episodes To clarify (and it’s probably worth clarifying, given my recent output, like Blackberry Picking), this is not a sex ...
    1 week ago
  • That was Then, This is Now #30 – Lobbyists, transparency, and National's confusing messages
    ..Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.That was then…"We'd also like to see a transparent, publicly accountable register of who's doing the lobbying and who they're lobbying for." - Nicola Willis, National deputy leader (in Opposition), 4 April 2023This is ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Midsummer Neat Dreams
    Good old Auckland! Don't let anyone ever tell you we're so worked up about cones and crossings we don’t still take time every little while to dream about sports stadiums. I must say, this latest one—designed, if I understand it correctly, in Sydney—is something special. It could be your very ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Government delivers greater freedom and choice for sick New Zealanders
    The coalition government is delivering on its commitment to making principled decisions by getting rid of red tape that doesn’t make sense and allowing sick New Zealanders greater freedom and choice to purchase effective cold and flu medicines. A bill amending the Misuse of Drugs Act 1975 is being introduced, and changes to the Medicines ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Government begins reset of welfare system
    The Coalition Government is taking early action to curb the surge in welfare dependency that occurred under the previous government by setting out its expectations around employment and the use of benefit sanctions, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. In 2017, 60,588 sanctions were applied to beneficiaries who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • State of the Nation
    Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora, good morning, talofa, malo e lelei, bula vinaka, da jia hao, namaste, sat sri akal, assalamu alaikum. Thank you for coming to my first State of the Nation as Prime Minister. Thank you for coming to a speech where I don’t just ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • West Coast tourism attractions officially open
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones will attend the official opening of two highly anticipated tourism projects on the West Coast today – Pike29 Memorial Track, dedicated to the memory of the Pike River miners, and Pounamu Pathway. “The Pike29 Memorial Track is a way to remember and honour the men ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Independent ferry service advisory group in place
    Appointments to the Ministerial Advisory Group tasked with providing independent advice and assurance on the future of KiwiRail’s inter-island ferry service have been made, State Owned Enterprises Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It’s important for New Zealand that KiwiRail is focused on ensuring safe, resilient, and reliable ferry services over the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand
    The Prime Ministers of Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on reports of Israel’s planned military operation in Rafah. We are gravely concerned by indications that Israel is planning a ground offensive into Rafah.   A military operation into Rafah would be catastrophic. About 1.5 million Palestinians ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Govt will deliver on expanded breast screening
    The coalition Government has made the first steps in delivering on its promise to  extend free breast screening to women aged 70-74, Health Minister Shane Reti says. “As part of the 100 day plan, the Government has now met with officials and discussed what is needed in order for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government announces woolshed roadshows in support of sheep farmers
    The Government celebrates National Lamb Day (15 February 24) and congratulates sheep farmers on the high-quality products they continue to produce. Agriculture Minister McClay hosted bipartisan celebrations of National Lamb Day with industry representatives at Parliament this week to mark the anniversary of the first frozen lamb exports that left ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech: Address to the NZ Economics Forum
    It’s great to be back at the New Zealand Economics Forum. I would like to acknowledge everyone here today for your expertise and contribution, especially the Pro Vice-Chancellor, Head of the Waikato Management School, economists, students and experts alike. A year has passed since I was last before you, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government tackling high construction costs
    The Government is focused on reducing sky-high construction costs to make it more affordable to build a home, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says.  Stats NZ data shows the cost of building a house has increased by 41 per cent since 2019, making housing even more unaffordable for Kiwi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s Three Waters legislation repealed
    The Coalition Government’s legislative plan to address longstanding issues with local water infrastructure and service delivery took an important step today, with the repeal of Labour’s divisive and unpopular Three Waters legislation, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Repealing this legislation is a necessary first step in implementing our Local ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Cost of living support for beneficiary households
    The Coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to ease the cost-of-living by increasing main benefit rates in line with inflation and ensuring the Minimum Family Tax Credit threshold remains aligned with this change, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. The Social Security (Benefits Adjustment) and Income Tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government announces agriculture delegations to better support Primary sector
    The coalition Government has announced ministerial delegations to support key areas across the Primary sector to deliver for New Zealand’s food and fibre sector, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I will be supported in my roles as Minister of Agriculture, Trade, Forestry and Hunting and Fishing, by three Associate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Waikato MoU reinforces Govt’s commitment to increase NZ doctors
    The Government has taken an important step forward in addressing a critical shortage of New Zealand-trained doctors, with today’s signing of a Memorandum of Understanding for a third medical school, Minister of Health Dr Shane Reti has announced.  “Today’s signing by the Ministry of Health and the University of Waikato ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech – Lunar New Year 2024
    Annyeonghaseyo, greetings and welcome all. It is my pleasure as the Minister for Ethnic Communities to welcome you to the first Lunar New Year Event in Parliament. Thank you to our emcees for greeting us in the different languages that represent the many cultures that celebrate the Lunar New Year. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More funding to Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti
    Urgent work to clean-up cyclone-affected regions will continue, thanks to a $63 million boost from the Government for sediment and debris removal in Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti.                                                                                                   The funding will help local councils continue urgent work removing and disposing of sediment and debris left from Cyclone Gabrielle.   “This additional ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Budget will be delivered on 30 May
    Plans to deliver tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders, rebuild business confidence and restore the Crown’s finances to order will be unveiled on 30 May, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The plans will be announced in the Budget which is currently being developed by Ministers.  “The last government’s mismanagement of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government advances Local Water Done Well
    The Coalition Government is continuing work to restore council ownership and control of water assets by repealing Three Waters and appointing a Technical Advisory Group to provide expert advice on the implementation of Local Water Done Well, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Government will pass a bill to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced five new diplomatic appointments.  "Strong and effective diplomacy to protect and advance our interests in the world is needed now more than ever," Mr Peters says.  “We are delighted to appoint senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to these ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Speech to the Committee for Auckland
    It is great to be here today at this event as Minister for Auckland and Minister ofTransport. Let me start by acknowledging each one of you and thanking the Committee forAuckland for hosting this event and inviting me to speak here today. The Committee for Auckland has been a symbol ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Getting Transport Back on Track in Auckland
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today confirmed his high-level transport priorities for Auckland, in the lead up to releasing the draft Government Policy Statement on Land Transport. “Our economic growth and productivity are underpinned by a transport network that enables people and freight to move around safely and efficiently. At ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government to axe Auckland Regional Fuel Tax
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has confirmed that the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax will end on 30 June 2024. “Today, I can confirm that the Government has agreed to remove the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax in line with our coalition commitments, and legislation will be introduced to parliament to repeal the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Minister Calls for Work to Tackle Kina Barrens
    Changes to fishing rules and a significant science programme are being undertaken to address kina barrens, says Minister for Oceans and Fisheries Shane Jones. “There has been tremendous interest from iwi, communities and recreational fishers who had raised concerns about such kina infestations being a major threat to Northland’s marine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government law and order crackdown begins
    The coalition Government is making good on its promise to restore law and order by removing government funding for Section 27 reports and abolishing the previous Labour Government’s prison reduction target, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell say.  “In recent years, the development of Section 27 reports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Greater focus on getting people into work
    The coalition government will refocus employment efforts and the welfare system so that supporting people who can work into jobs is the number one priority, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Of concern in the labour market statistics released by Stats NZ today was the number of youth not ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • One year on, NZ appeals for release of Phillip Mehrtens
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has appealed to those holding New Zealand pilot Phillip Mehrtens in remote Papua, Indonesia, to release him immediately.  Phillip Mehrtens was taken hostage a year ago on 7 February in Paro, Papua, while providing vital air links and supplies to remote communities. “We strongly urge those holding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ministers reaffirm Pacific connections this week
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Health Minister and Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti are reaffirming the importance of New Zealand’s connections to the Pacific by visiting Tonga, Cook Islands and Samoa this week.  “New Zealand enjoys strong and long-standing relationships with our Pacific partners - especially in Polynesia, where we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Rt Hon Christopher Luxon – Waitangi speech
    E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā iwi, rau rangatira ma. Tēnā koutou katoa. He tino mihi ki te mana whenua o tēnei rohe.  Mihi mai, mihi mai, mihi mai. Te whare e tū nei, tēnā koe.                               He-wāhi whakahirahira tēnei mō Aotearoa. Ka huri nga whakaaro, ki nga mate. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government awards primary sector scholarships to students
    Six university students studying agriculture and science have been awarded scholarships as part of the coalition Government’s efforts to boost on-the-ground support for farmers and growers. “The coalition Government is committed to improving support and operating conditions for farmers and growers,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “We’re backing a range ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • High Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister Jason Scott McHerron as a High Court Judge. Justice McHerron graduated from the University of Otago with a BA in English literature in 1994 and an LLB in 1996. From 1996 to 1999 he worked as a solicitor in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Zealand provides further humanitarian support to Gaza and the West Bank
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced that New Zealand is providing a further $5 million to respond to the extreme humanitarian need in Gaza and the West Bank.  “The impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on civilians is absolutely appalling,” Mr Peters says.  “That is why New Zealand has contributed $15 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Government consults on expanding COVID-19 Inquiry terms of reference
    The Government is delivering on its commitment to enable public input into expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, says Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden. “As committed to in both the ACT-National and NZ First-National coalition agreements, the public will be given the opportunity ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Tai Tokerau Water Boost
    A further $5 million loan has been advanced to the Tai Tokerau Water Trust for Te Waihekeora Reservoir, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says.  “Water is a precious resource, Kānoa – Regional Development and Investment Unit at the Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment have done amazing work in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Fast track consenting in the fast lane
    The Government is progressing changes to resource management laws as part of its 100 Day Action Plan, with the first steps taken to establish a new fast-track consenting one-stop shop regime. “This new regime, which forms part of National’s coalition agreement with New Zealand First, will improve the speed and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • JOINT STATEMENT ON AUSTRALIA-NEW ZEALAND MINISTERIAL CONSULTATIONS (ANZMIN) 2024
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence the Hon Richard Marles MP and Minister for Foreign Affairs Senator the Hon Penny Wong hosted New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters MP and Minister of Defence Hon Judith Collins KC MP on 1 February ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Minimum wage set for cautious increase
    The adult minimum wage rate will increase by 2 per cent to $23.15 an hour from 1 April 2024, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden announced today. “This Government is committed to striking the right balance between protecting the incomes of our lowest paid workers and maintaining labour ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Increased security improves ED safety over summer
    Increasing the number of security staff in emergency departments (EDs) over the busy Christmas and New Year period improved the safety of both staff and patients, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says. 200 additional security staff (93 FTEs) were provided to 32 EDs in response to concerns raised by ED ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Step Closer for European Union Free Trade Agreement
    New Zealand has moved closer to ratifying the New Zealand – European Union Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the First Reading of legislation to bring the Agreement into force being held in Parliament today.   “Almost a decade after preparatory talks first began on an FTA with the European Union, I’m pleased to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Continuing support to community flood resilience
    The Government is contributing more than $15 million to support councils and communities to build flood resilience in three regions, following the 2023 severe weather events. “Last week I announced funding of just under $12 million for Wairarapa and Northland flood resilience projects, these further projects bring the Government’s contribution ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

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