Aussie aussie aussie …

Written By: - Date published: 5:46 pm, May 18th, 2019 - 130 comments
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The Australian election is on today.  Is this the end of Scomo and the Liberals?  Is Tony Abbott goneburger?  Will the last act of Bob Hawke’s life push Labor over the line?

Counting should start this evening 9 pm NZ time.

This is a discussion post.

130 comments on “Aussie aussie aussie …”

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  1. toad 1
    18 May 2019 at 5:58 pm

    I just really want Peter Dutton to lose his seat above all else, whatever the overall outcome. That guy is the most nasty racist, bigoted PoS.

    And for no more Pauline Hanson or Fraser Anning, for that matter.

    [I have changed your Username because you appeared to be using your real name – Incognito]

  2. Jilly Bee 2
    18 May 2019 at 6:42 pm

    Oi, oi, oi – go Labor.

  3. Dukeofurl 3
    18 May 2019 at 6:56 pm

    The Pollbludger website gets the numbers from the lat poll of some 3000 people

     

    On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%. https://www.pollbludger.net When they trnsfer that to TPP it becomes 51.5-48.5. labour- coalition. Don't ask me how.As while parties give how to vote cards voters don't always follow that. One nation and UAP voters seem to split their preferences say 55-60% coalition and 40-45% to labour

  4. Muttonbird 4
    18 May 2019 at 7:14 pm

    A bizzarre system for a bizarre nation. And why are there so many independents? Is that too a result of their bizarre system?

    • Sabine 4.1
      18 May 2019 at 7:51 pm

      more a thing of swing voters like in the US? Not wanting to give away party affiliation or not having one?

      I mean here in NZ we could argue that anyone not with a party membership is an independent? No? 

  5. Craig H 5
    18 May 2019 at 7:34 pm

    Exit polling is currently suggesting a Labor win.

  6. Morrissey 6
    18 May 2019 at 8:18 pm

    Will the last act of Bob Hawke’s life push Labor over the line?

    Shades of the 2005 New Zealand election: David Lange died just before it, and Labour narrowly won.

    • alwyn 6.1
      19 May 2019 at 10:15 am

      You don't really think that Lange's death had an effect do you? Personally, having seen the Australian result, I think Hawke's death did as much for Labour there as Lange's did for Labour here. In other words zilch.

      Have you really forgotten the massive bribe of the interest free student loans? Now that was what saved Labour in 2005.

      • Morrissey 6.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 10:18 am

        You're right, no doubt. Lange's death led to a great deal of sentimental reminiscing, but probably had little or no influence on the way people voted.

         

        • alwyn 6.1.1.1
          19 May 2019 at 1:54 pm

          I would agree with you about the reaction to Lange's death. I was sad that he had died so young, given that he was less than a year older than I was. He was truly a breath of fresh air to New Zealand politics after the dire days of Muldoon, and I voted for his party twice at the time he was leader. However by 2005 he had no place in the Labour ranks.

          I just don't think his death had any effect on the 2005 voting, despite what Micky Savage seems to think in his comment just below this. How MS comes to his opinion about my response is beyond me.

          • Morrissey 6.1.1.1.1
            19 May 2019 at 2:19 pm

            How MS comes to his opinion about my response is beyond me.

            Don't worry, Alwyn—I think MS is a little down after yesterday's vote. wink

      • mickysavage 6.1.2
        19 May 2019 at 10:19 am

        “You don’t really think that Lange’s death had an effect do you? Personally, having seen the Australian result, I think Hawke’s death did as much for Labour there as Lange’s did for Labour here.”

        I don’t think you should hold out your personal response as an example of what much of the population went through.

  7. swordfish 7
    18 May 2019 at 9:34 pm

    Very early days (& huge Early Vote which could change things) … but might just be an upset Coalition victory.

    Abbott out, but.

  8. Exkiwiforces 8
    18 May 2019 at 9:40 pm

    This is going to be tight one, but the mad monk is gone.

    Buttons looks like he’s back with a 3.8% margin 

    I’ll be piss if the Lib’s get back in as Ubet had the Libs at 15/1 and my bookie had them at 25/1 with a hang House of Representatives at 50/1 before the SocMo called the election as i didn’t put any money on the muppets as Labour was almost even money.

    I wouldn’t trust any exited polls tonight or pre election polls according to Antony Green

     

  9. Kat 9
    18 May 2019 at 9:41 pm

    Quicker than a rat up a drain pipe and a downed brown one the ozzie election turned into a landslide for the ……….crackle…crackle….pop…splutter……… hissssssssssssssssssssssssssssssshhhhhhh…….poof

  10. Exkiwiforces 10
    18 May 2019 at 10:03 pm

    There is a 4.2% swing for the Libs in QLD and at this stage Labour is stuff unless they pull the red rabbit out of the hat in WA

    Tas and Vic are only about 2.2% to 2.4% swing to Labour 

  11. Exkiwiforces 11
    18 May 2019 at 10:13 pm

    The latest from the Antony Green, he is saying if the Libs don’t lose any seats in WA they will have just sneak over the line and if they don’t they will be in minority government.

  12. swordfish 12
    18 May 2019 at 10:18 pm

    Banana-Benders (Qlders) have not been kind to ALP.

  13. Ankerrawshark 13
    18 May 2019 at 10:35 pm

    Depressing.

     

    only positive is Abbott is losing to climate change activist

    • millsy 13.1
      18 May 2019 at 11:21 pm

      Abbott is irrelevant. He would have probably gone before the next term was up. This is no consolation. The ALP was destroyed tonight. Australians seems to care more about their retirement nest egg than their fellow countrymen. Similar case here.

      • RedLogix 13.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 10:21 am

        Australians seems to care more about their retirement nest egg than their fellow countrymen.

        Given that their 'fellow countrymen' don't appear to care much about them either, is this not surprising?

        I'm not arguing this is a good thing, quite the opposite, environments that are relatively low trust and high threat will reliably induce people to vote conservative.

  14. Exkiwiforces 14
    18 May 2019 at 10:42 pm

    Old Barnaby give the Labour Party an all might spray, about Labour giving the working class seats the two finger salute in Qld. As the Libs/Nats have picked a number of working class seats. 

    But in saying that a number of the wealthy electorates the Libs are struggling because of leftist independents and greens have been running a strong campaign in those seats, I’m sort of thinking had Labour not stood any candidates in those seats? Labour might have its nose in front, but Labour haven’t giving some working class seats an up yours in Qld and else where then this election would’ve been a Labour win.

    I forgot that big Clive Palmer’s deal over first preferences to the Liberal/ Nats has also killed off a Labour Government especially in Qld.

    • millsy 14.1
      18 May 2019 at 11:24 pm

      Barnaby is a fool. Carrying on about 'working class' when his party will gleefully shaft them for the big agriculture and mining interests that bankroll him. 

  15. patricia bremner 15
    18 May 2019 at 10:44 pm

    Australia will continue to burn coal and country.  Climate change/nah.. pocket change.

  16. Peter 16
    18 May 2019 at 10:49 pm

    Off the ABC: "Many commentators thought this was going to be a big night for Labor but early results are worrying for the party, with Penny Wong acknowledging that Queensland is a problem."

     Queensland is a problem?   Fact saying that like it's a new thing. Isn't that where Pauline Hanson is from?

  17. The Fairy Godmother 17
    18 May 2019 at 10:54 pm

    Not looking good.  Coalition is gaining.  67 to 60 on ABC news.  76 is required to win.

    • swordfish 17.1
      18 May 2019 at 11:00 pm

      ALP relying on WA (& early vote) has the distinct whiff of clutching at straws.

      Will it be a majority or minority Coalition Govt ?

      • swordfish 17.1.1
        18 May 2019 at 11:09 pm

        10 mins later … Antony Green confirms that it's now virtually impossible to see how the ALP could win enough seats to form a new Govt.

    • mauī 17.2
      18 May 2019 at 11:04 pm

      I wouldn't call it just yet.

  18. millsy 18
    18 May 2019 at 10:58 pm

    Well that sucks.

    3 more years I guess.

    Now we are going to have the next few weeks listening to talking heads bang on about how to get the votes of reactionary tradies.

    This caps off a pretty shit week for me.

    • mauī 18.1
      18 May 2019 at 11:01 pm

      Are you calling it?

      • millsy 18.1.1
        18 May 2019 at 11:13 pm

        Yeah. I don't see how Labor can do it now.  Only good thing to come out of this is that Shorten and the rest of these empty suits will be cleaned out over the next 3 years and a new generation will come through, who will move away from the Blairite triangulation. 

        • swordfish 18.1.1.1
          18 May 2019 at 11:27 pm

          Recriminations are already starting in ALP with some pointing the finger at Shorten. It's funny … just a few days ago I was wondering if the Aussies would end up with an Ed Miliband situation on Election Night … Polls pointing to a Lab victory … but an unpopular leader proving decisive when potential swing-voters to Labor actually entered the booths.

          Generally around 10 points behind Scotty in Pref PM Polls … & with big Dissatisfaction numbers.

          Whether or not the Shorten factor proved absolutely decisive … it almost certainly played some part in these pretty dismal results.

          • millsy 18.1.1.1.1
            18 May 2019 at 11:48 pm

            There does seem to be parallels with UK15.

            The parties of the left cannot seem to be able to oust right wing parties that should very well be oustable 

  19. mauī 19
    18 May 2019 at 11:01 pm

    Still too close to call.

  20. Exkiwiforces 20
    18 May 2019 at 11:08 pm

    /aussie-aussie-aussie/#comment-1618333

    I’m told there has been a swing against to Warren what’s has name in the NT which has a Labour safe seat the early 80’s. Antony Green has said that it’s impossible for Labour to form Government, so its going to be either majority or minority government for the Libs/ Nat.

    The figures from Qld are very similar to old Johnny Howard’s win back in 2004

    Sorry I seem I can’t reply to post here via my IPad for some reason. Is there any fix for this problem?

  21. Bewildered 21
    18 May 2019 at 11:14 pm

    Great day for Au if it goes to plan for Scomo, Likewise no pesky abbott causing mischief in the background Morrison seems a straight up and likeable guy, Short dodgy in person and in past 

  22. Exkiwiforces 22
    18 May 2019 at 11:17 pm

    Yes I think ScoMo won’t be having a knife throwing contest during this term and I wouldn’t be surprised if we could see a possible a term Lib/Nat Government (yuck)

  23. Exkiwiforces 23
    18 May 2019 at 11:20 pm

    Labour probably should’ve gone for Albo instead of shifty Shorten?

    • Bewildered 23.1
      18 May 2019 at 11:32 pm

      Press seem  to think labour lost the oldies ( franking credits) and Howard’s Tradies on Tax and redistribution 

  24. Exkiwiforces 24
    18 May 2019 at 11:31 pm

    Millsy @ 14.1, it’s more of a dig at Labour for sucking up to the big end of the town and giving the working class seats the flick and you now something is wrong when those usually Labour held seats have gone over to the Lib or Nats or independent.  I believe if Albo had been the Labour Leader these working class/ Labour seats would’ve been held or gained 

    • bewildered 24.1
      18 May 2019 at 11:36 pm

      Not sure working class how we traditionally see it really exists any more as a unified voting class or that if it does labour really represents it Labour is more upper middle class Champaign socialists and identity politics, likewise anti Christian that  does not help  with this class if it still exists

      • millsy 24.1.1
        18 May 2019 at 11:43 pm

        Christians seem to have the habit of denying science and telling people who they and cannot have intimate relationships with and what they can do with their bodies. Labour should be damn well anti Christian.

        • bewildered 24.1.1.1
          18 May 2019 at 11:59 pm

          Sure they can ignore a large voting block across many identities and classes Its a very  naive and selected view of Christianity you have Millsy  focussing on the fundamentalist who are  a very small minority Not all Christian’s have a simplistic view of Christianity as a old white gut sitting on a cloud and  firing thunder bolts hating gays and adulterers 

          • millsy 24.1.1.1.1
            19 May 2019 at 12:06 am

            Christians will purge evolution from schools and take gays out the back and shoot them given half the chance. Look at what has happened in Alabama when you give the god botherers full control of things. Of course you don't mind women being told what they can and cannot do.

            • bewildered 24.1.1.1.1.1
              19 May 2019 at 12:26 am

              Yes dear, Nz and  Au are exactly like Alabama, similarly let’s deals  in extremes Maybe not extreme  socialism does not have a great past in taking out  and shooting any one who does not agree with it, nor in controlling women reproductive decisions

              • millsy …
                19 May 2019 at 12:33 am

                Communist countries such as East Germany and Poland had abortion on demand and full access to birth control. Things that can only happen be imposing restrictions on the god botherers. 

                • bewildered …
                  19 May 2019 at 10:17 am

                  Have a look at communist China abortion 1 child policy and practice , 2 levels telling you how many you can have and forced abortion if you break the rules Let’s not even get to how they treated those lucky enough to survive the policy, if they felt a problem Ughurs the most recent recent poor souls who need to fit in to the socialist nirvana 

  25. Exkiwiforces 25
    18 May 2019 at 11:42 pm

    Bewildered @ 23.1, it was one of the causes, but I don’t it was a major issue in my books. It think the biggest issue is around the middle class toffs and the workers in Labour seat turning to the Liberal/ Nats? As old shiffy Shorten didn’t seem to to properly explain Labour’s policy on tax, negative gearing, or dividend share tax etc.

  26. Exkiwiforces 26
    18 May 2019 at 11:49 pm

    Bewildered @ 24.1 I fully agree with your comment that is more a middle class toffs party now than looking after the workers or underprivileged and really don’t give them a toss nowadays

    • millsy 26.1
      19 May 2019 at 12:04 am

      I don't think you are wrong there. There wasn't really much of a policy difference between the ALP and the Coalition. 

    • Bewildered 26.2
      19 May 2019 at 12:14 am

      Sort of agree EKW but not sure the average Aussie worker is that bad off, compared to kiwi low skilled labour etc they are pretty well looked after. This voting block plus tradies etc are no longer traditional labour or exist as a unified voting class The underprivileged are another matter and don’t tend to vote or a relatively small cohort , similarly the so called working class are not big on massive redistribution of their hard earned income or seeing their jobs destroyed by greens or transformation that hits their hip pocket

  27. Exkiwiforces 27
    19 May 2019 at 12:02 am

    Old Barrie Cassidy, said yo can’t have an ambitious manifesto now from opposition almost shades of poor old Foot and old Hewson with Keating which was mean to be a Lib election win.

  28. Exkiwiforces 28
    19 May 2019 at 12:09 am

    Millsy@ 26.1 Yes Labour has almost a shade of Blair’s New Labour and they wonder why  the workers, the underprivileged have given them the two fingers and bugged off to the blue side or green of politics. 

  29. Exkiwiforces 29
    19 May 2019 at 12:21 am

    My electorate of Lingiari has had a 6.3% swing to the Country Liberal Party against the sitting Labour member which is normally a safe Labour seat, but this seat covers about 90% of the NT so there is a lot of remote polling votes to come in yet and at the moment the young lady J Price from the CLP is currently ahead. Knowing her mum Bess Price and her daughters background, I will say this seat will change hands for the first time since the 80’s when this seat was formed.   

  30. Exkiwiforces 30
    19 May 2019 at 12:26 am

    I’m going to call the election as a Lib/ Nat with a majority Government with 77 or 78 seats. 

    The race for the senate is going to be interesting and on that note folks

    I’m off to get my evening med’s and head off to bed.

    See you tomorrow morning folks 

     

  31. MickeyBoyle 31
    19 May 2019 at 1:36 am

    Unbelievable result. The right certainly know how to win elections. Hopefully the Australian Labor party can rebuild and win back those voters who have clearly abandoned them.

  32. millsy 32
    19 May 2019 at 1:44 am

    Bill Shorten has conceded from the looks of things, and stepped down as leader. 

    It's all over. Only one way to go now, that is up.

  33. Ad 33
    19 May 2019 at 5:45 am

    (sigh)

  34. RedLogix 34
    19 May 2019 at 6:43 am

    Congratulations to Scott Morrison. The accidental PM has personally pulled off the totally unexpected.  He will likely be a decent PM even if the left won't be thrilled with his govt, we could certainly have hoped for a different outcome.

    From the moment ScoMo became PM he's juggled a series of disunity crisis' that would have destroyed many others. You have to have some respect for this; managing through tough times competently is an under-rated skill. 

    Shorten was terribly unlucky, up against Turnbull he would have likely won. I've met him in person and he's impressive enough. But resigning is his only option and the ALP will go through the process of coming to terms with what has happened.

    I've no particular sense of why QLD led the swing against them, but the unpalatable truth is that across the entire country the left has lost what should have been an unloseable election. They should have done better everywhere; not dissimilar to how Clinton lost to Trump, only this time without the populist demagogue to blame. Hopefully the ALP will take ownership of this hard truth with quiet dignity and intellectual integrity.

  35. SPC 35
    19 May 2019 at 7:38 am

    A successful adoption of the GOP tactic of reducing voter enrollment – a win for John Howard. There is  no way Queensland would have gone so well for the Coalition if all the Kiwis there had voted.  

    There is also the white man thing, security in those of their kind continuing to rule – the abuse of women in the Liberal caucus probably won them more votes than it lost. 

    And the capacity of the boomers to look after themselves is going to be their generational legacy …  

    • RedLogix 35.1
      19 May 2019 at 8:02 am

      There is  no way Queensland would have gone so well for the Coalition if all the Kiwis there had voted.  

      Well in fact many of us Kiwis in Australia are effectively disenfranchised in both countries. We can't vote in Australia and often we can't in NZ either. The rules require that we either:

      • a New Zealand citizen who has been in New Zealand at any point in the past three years,or
      • a New Zealand permanent resident who has been in New Zealand at any point in the past 12 months.

      https://www.elections.org.nz/voters/get-ready-enrol-and-vote/enrol-and-vote-overseas

      I'm not sure what fraction of the 600,000 kiwis would be disqualified by this but it would be significant. Plus there are several extra steps involved in making an online or overseas vote. It's not surprising only a tiny fraction of ex-pats finish up actually casting a vote.

      • Wayne 35.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 9:41 am

        Australia has always had a "citizens only" voting qualification, unlike NZ where permanent residents can vote as well.

        So I don't think the "Kiwi factor" would have made any difference in the Australian election (in Queensland). Even before the changes in 2001, most Kiwis did not take out Australian citizenship. 

        And even if Kiwis could vote, many would vote for the Liberals.

    • bewildered 35.2
      19 May 2019 at 10:38 am

      Suck it up sun shine and just accept it not every one agrees with your world view Democracy is the winner on the day Whining and throwing out stock lefty excuses is sad The Sun came up this morning ( just a little brighter) 😊

  36. UncookedSelachimorpha 36
    19 May 2019 at 7:40 am

    ALP and Liberals aren't that different, unfortunately. Both owned by the fossil fuel lobby and both powerfully neoliberal.

  37. James 37
    19 May 2019 at 7:56 am

    Woke up to hear if the exciting victory and the labour leader quitting. 

     

    Good start to the day so far. 

     

    Happy with this result. 

    • RedLogix 37.1
      19 May 2019 at 8:06 am

      Gloating is ugly James. The only purpose for making that comment was to inflict a bit more pain on people who you know will already be disappointed and therefore vulnerable.

      It speaks poorly to your character.  Mate.

      • James 37.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 8:13 am

        Perhaps you might want to read the thread when Jacinda became PM.

         

        and to say people are venerable because if this is atypical snowflake bullshit.

         

        Labour lost – big deal. You congratulate the winners and hope they do the best job possible.  

        • RedLogix 37.1.1.1
          19 May 2019 at 8:20 am

          You can't have it both ways James; you can't deplore the 'thread when Jacinda became PM' and then go and do it yourself.

          You congratulate the winners and hope they do the best job possible.  

          Which is what I did above and precisely not what you did.

          • James 37.1.1.1.1
            19 May 2019 at 8:29 am

            you are a little thick this morning. 

             

            If you read the thread when Jacinda became pm – it is exactly what I did. 

            However the gloating from people on here was immense. 

             

            My my comment wasn’t gloating – I’m genuinely happy that “my team” won – I think Australia will be a lot better for it. 

            Sorry I can’t join the pity party some on here are having. 

  38. joe90 38
    19 May 2019 at 8:03 am

    The taliban are well organised.

    • RedLogix 38.1
      19 May 2019 at 8:09 am

      Immediately blaming others for their own failure. Also speaks poorly to character.

      • joe90 38.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 8:18 am

        Being despondent that the electorate plainly gives no fucks about the environment and that religious extremists will likely end up running the shop isn't blaming others.

        • RedLogix 38.1.1.1
          19 May 2019 at 8:30 am

          Yes it is. The Libs had gone through a catastrophic leadership knife fight, the ALP was leading all the polls, the tide of opinion on climate change is turning, the issue of illegal immigration has cooled dramatically, even the media wasn't all bad as usual … all the big cards were stacked in their favour. Yet still they couldn't win. They have to look to themselves long and hard as to why.

          Blaming 'racist/fanatic fuckheads in the electorate' is the hallmark of losers.

          • joe90 38.1.1.1.1
            19 May 2019 at 8:42 am

            A woman voicing her fears about the influence of religious extremists is a loser. Nice.

            • RedLogix 38.1.1.1.1.1
              19 May 2019 at 8:54 am

              Expressing 'fears' without any attempt at justifying them is otherwise known as whining. (And this being a gender non-specific activity.)

          • Anne 38.1.1.1.2
            19 May 2019 at 10:05 am

            Blaming 'racist/fanatic fuckheads in the electorate' is the hallmark of losers.

            Going too far there Redlogix.

            My initial reaction when hearing the news this morning was:

                   "well that's it. Trump America has arrived in Australia." 

            Actually it was always there but now they are out in the open. And that is the darned truth. It's not blaming others.  

            When the towns and cities start going up in flames and they hop in their little boats and row across the Tasman, we'll turn them away like they turn other desperate folks away now. That'll learn them.

            S'alright James and co. I don't really mean it. I don't think. 😳

            • RedLogix 38.1.1.1.2.1
              19 May 2019 at 10:42 am

              Actually it was always there but now they are out in the open. 

              There may well be some element truth to of that, but to imply that every Australian who voted Lib yesterday is a racist fuckhead modeled on Trump's America … is still avoiding the truth. It's the same game the Democrats have played pointing the finger at the 'deplorables' instead of doing the honest work to understand why they're unelectable.

              • Anne …
                19 May 2019 at 11:16 am

                I did not take that meaning from Joe 90's comment because I thought the same albeit in a less orally provocative way. 

                The "racist fuckheads" voted for the Libs 'in toto' otherwise the result would have been different. Doesn't mean all the Lib voters fall into this category and Joe 90 wasn't suggesting as much.

                I haven't checked the figures this morning. but it looked like Queensland was the big spoiler last night and that is not surprising. The state has a reputation for having a very large contingent of  "racist fuckheads" going back many decades. 

                • RedLogix …
                  19 May 2019 at 12:09 pm

                  The state has a reputation for having a very large contingent of  "racist fuckheads" going back many decades. 

                  Yes while they are more conservative (and this has geographic parallels with the USA) it's really not dramatically different; it's the usual mix just a little more tilted.

                  This idea that Australia is full of six fingered rednecks is just a Kiwi conceit.

  39. RedLogix 39
    19 May 2019 at 8:18 am

    An interesting point that speaks to an underlying problem we have with democracy:

    There is a longer-term issue involved in this national outcome.

    The rebuff to Labor amounts to a warning for all parties and politicians not to enter an election with a detailed policy package announced well in advance.

    The political atmosphere here and in other democracies favours simplistic certainties, not bold change and vision.

    As Liberal John Hewson found in 1993, Labor’s Bill Shorten has learned in 2019: Being a reformer exposes you to misrepresentation by an opponent unencumbered by fresh direction.

    https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/federal-election-2019-labor-defeat-is-humiliating/news-story/4cadec03271d70e14280e2846255ced4

    It's arguable Ardern only just squeaked into power here in NZ because she didn't have enough time to articulate a detailed vision, and part of her on-going success is that she's preferred the pragmatic over idealistic.

    • James 39.1
      19 May 2019 at 8:32 am

      <blockquote>
      It's arguable Ardern only just squeaked into power here in NZ because she didn't have enough time to articulate a detailed vision,
      </blockquote>

      &nbsp;

      it wasn&rsquo;t her lack of vision – it was how much she was willing to give Winston to buy power with our money. That squeaked her into power.&nbsp;

      • RedLogix 39.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 8:40 am

        Ardern did remarkably better in the election than would have been expected months earlier. If she hadn't pulled Labour up in to the high 30's Winston would have been irrelevant.

        What Ardern and Morrison have in common, along with the likes of Trump, was a lack of incumbency, a lack of detailed political track record on which they could be attacked.

  40. Sanctuary 40
    19 May 2019 at 9:07 am

    What a tragedy for Australia. 

    • James 40.1
      19 May 2019 at 9:12 am

      what is it with some of you lefties and your hatred of democracy?

      The people voted and selected their leader. The majority got what they asked for.  

      Thats a good result – not a tragedy. 

    • Srylands 40.2
      19 May 2019 at 9:20 pm

      It is a triumph for Australia. The people have chosen a pro growth path that should sustain for the next two decades. Lip service will be paid to the Paris Agreement, preceeding a withdrawal in 2025. 

  41. Ad 41
    19 May 2019 at 9:23 am

    We need to talk about the remaining left who are in power in the world. 

    It's shrinking very, very fast. 

    • RedLogix 41.1
      19 May 2019 at 9:43 am

      Indeed. Only this time the left really has nowhere else to place the blame. Morrison came back from political death, ran an effective political campaign and has won decisively. The left got outplayed … again.

      If we want to change the outcomes we can only change ourselves. Whining that the other guys are nasty people, that they cheat, they treat us mean and don't recognise our intellectual and moral superiority, is just that … whining.

      Here is my starting point. The conversation needs to understand what politics is really for and how we can play a more effective role in it. Hint, it isn't about 'winning and losing':

      • Incognito 41.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 12:56 pm

        The paradox of running an effective political campaign versus effectively running a country. The campaign is the glossy add, full of appealing promises. The term in Government is the product. Voters are the consumers that are lured by ads making the assumption that the better the ad, the better the product. It is much easier to improve the ad than the product; once the sale is done, the money is in. People tend to by brands they know and trust.

    • bewildered 41.2
      19 May 2019 at 11:46 am

      And may this excellent trend  continue Hard lefties are really deplorable as comments by Ann, SPC and Joe  90 detest I am always surprised why they are surprised when their  know all, superiority complex sees their favourites who hold similar world views are crushed at the ballot box 

  42. Pat 42
    19 May 2019 at 9:53 am

    It would appear one word decided the Aussie election.

    Tax

    • Anne 42.1
      19 May 2019 at 10:13 am

      Yes. The Libs. ran a false smear campaign on Federal Taxes in the same way the Nats ran the campaign on CGT. We've got a name for it – Dirty Politics. Others call is Fake News.

      • Pat 42.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 10:28 am

        There may have been misrepresentation but there was also 'incentive'….it seems that less tax remains a vote winner, and once 'less tax' is in place it is almost impossible to reverse…a fundamental difficulty for any 'left' party…and fertile ground for libertarians.

        https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/what-the-morrison-government-promised-to-do-next-20190518-p51ore.html

        • bewildered 42.1.1.1
          19 May 2019 at 12:53 pm

          The flip side when a new tax is introduced it is very hard to remove so it’s not really difficult to understand why people from all persuasions don’t like more tax  If labour have just worked this out they really do live in La la land

          • Pat 42.1.1.1.1
            19 May 2019 at 1:00 pm

            On the contrary, removing taxes if the easiest thing in the political realm, as you yourself note tax is broadly unpopular, the difficulty is the likely necessity to remove services to compensate for the lost revenue…that appears to be more politicly palatable, especially if those services are not likely to be accessed by your constituency

            • Bewildered 42.1.1.1.1.1
              19 May 2019 at 1:30 pm

              Getting rid of tax burden and replacing it with another tax is not  getting rid of tax burden  overall but moving the deck chairs Proposing new taxes  and increasing overall tax burden and believing that will not be popular is a “know shit Sherlock moment” If labour Have just realised this more fool them 

              • Pat …
                19 May 2019 at 1:41 pm

                you really do seem to be struggling with this…..

                "Getting rid of tax burden and replacing it with another tax is not  getting rid of tax burden  overall but moving the deck chairs Proposing new taxes  and increasing overall tax burden and believing that will not be popular"

                are you sure you wouldnt like to edit that?

      • bewildered 42.1.2
        19 May 2019 at 11:52 am

        Others call it Politics, not that   labour  is not prone to a healthy amount of bs and smearing If you can’t handle the heat get out of the kitchen This was labour’s election to lose, they did in a grandiose way 

  43. MickeyBoyle 43
    19 May 2019 at 11:04 am

    Pat @42. Blaming National for this governments inability to implement a CGT is a disgrace, Labour in particular have no one to blame but themselves. Ardern and co threw in the towel before they even got off the stool. They let National control the narrative because they refused to go in and fight for what's right. That's on us, accept it.

    • Bewildered 43.1
      19 May 2019 at 12:12 pm

      An honest man that mickeyboyle Taking ownership where ownership lies 

    • Pat 43.2
      19 May 2019 at 12:21 pm

      Pardon?….you would appear somewhat confused

      • Bewildered 43.2.1
        19 May 2019 at 12:42 pm

        How so is MickeyB confuse there  Pat, Please enlighten, facts please 

        • Pat 43.2.1.1
          19 May 2019 at 12:51 pm

          Must be contagious….read my post @42 and it should be abundantly clear.

          • Bewildered 43.2.1.1.1
            19 May 2019 at 12:59 pm

            will do 

            • Bewildered 43.2.1.1.1.1
              19 May 2019 at 1:02 pm

              see post 42.111

               

              really Pat your  comment at 42 is a know shit Sherlock moment My comments on MickeyB stands 

               

               

              • Pat …
                19 May 2019 at 1:12 pm

                Meh…you would appear to be a lost argument looking for somewhere to land…and your comment to Mickey Boyle is of no relevance to my response to his confusion

                • Incognito …
                  19 May 2019 at 1:33 pm

                  Come on, Pat! We all know that Jacinda Ardern campaigned hard for CGT in Oz. She even sent over Sir Michael but National got wind of it and sent Simon to neutralise Sir Mike. It paid off, didn’t it? The Mad Monk is gone. This is the sole reason why JC will be the next leader of National. Please keep up!

                • bewildered …
                  19 May 2019 at 1:42 pm

                  Your ducking for cover Pat Mickey highlighted as with Ardern and Nz labour needed to own Cgt shambles LABOUR Au need to own this election loss , you seem to be arguing that they where blindsided by the people response to their tax policy and the libs exploiting this As Mickey indicates they need to own this if they where to dumb to understand that this is what they would be judged and attacked  on, well as I said more full then In reality I think it was way more than tax 

                  • Pat …
                    19 May 2019 at 1:54 pm

                    lol…a lot of projection going on there B.

                    There is no need to duck for cover as I have made a brief judgement on that which swung the Aussie election, is it the sole reason?undoubtably not but I suggest it is a key reason for although they lost badly in Queensland (apparently) their support in the largest states failed to counter that…two states with falling property values I may add. 

                    As to ownership i made no judgement though that should be obvious in a democracy

                     

  44. MickeyBoyle 44
    19 May 2019 at 1:29 pm

    Apologies that was my fault for the confusion. I was actually referring to Pat's comment at 42.1.1. And Arderns and Labours inability to even put up an ounce of fight for a policy they say they believe in. Less tax is currently only a vote winner because our side refuses to convey what effects a CGT etc would have on the average kiwi. We seem reluctant to fight for our policies, which leads to plenty of poll watching without much real action. Year of delivery, transformational, it all means nothing if you are not prepared to state your case and fight for it. Sorry but for some reason when I press reply I cannot type anything in the comment box?

    • Pat 44.1
      19 May 2019 at 2:05 pm

      Again Im not sure why you are taking umbrage as my comment at 42.1.1 makes no reference to CGT, National, Ardern or even NZ…it is a general observation about the implications of tax policy on parties with a public ownership model, or 'the left".

      • MickeyBoyle 44.1.1
        19 May 2019 at 2:51 pm

        This is what you wrote, "it seems that less tax remains a vote winner, and once 'less tax' is in place it is almost impossible to reverse". That's all I'm arguing against. Less tax is only currently a vote winner because those on our side who are currently in power and whom believe in paying more to support our vulnerable or deliver better social policies, refuse to fight and counter the false narrative that we allow our opponents to foster. I have no doubt that Ardern and co could've got a CGT across the line, my point is that they didnt even try. Less tax is only a vote winner because voters do not see how an alternative would benefit themselves and society.

        • Pat 44.1.1.1
          19 May 2019 at 3:04 pm

          now compare your statement here @ 44.1 with this

          "Blaming National for this governments inability to implement a CGT is a disgrace, Labour in particular have no one to blame but themselves. Ardern and co threw in the towel before they even got off the stool. They let National control the narrative because they refused to go in and fight for what's right. That's on us, accept it."

          and wheres the blame and lack of acceptance?….it certainly isnt in 42 or 42.1

          • bewildered 44.1.1.1.1
            19 May 2019 at 4:50 pm

            You must have been an opening batsman Pat or a boxer. Your weaving and bobbing is impressive 😀

            • Incognito 44.1.1.1.1.1
              19 May 2019 at 5:38 pm

              One too many drinks last night, me thinks. Pat was as clear as succinct @ 42.

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