The Australian election is on today. Is this the end of Scomo and the Liberals? Is Tony Abbott goneburger? Will the last act of Bob Hawke’s life push Labor over the line?
The Pollbludger website gets the numbers from the lat poll of some 3000 people
On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%. https://www.pollbludger.net When they trnsfer that to TPP it becomes 51.5-48.5. labour- coalition. Don't ask me how.As while parties give how to vote cards voters don't always follow that. One nation and UAP voters seem to split their preferences say 55-60% coalition and 40-45% to labour
You don't really think that Lange's death had an effect do you? Personally, having seen the Australian result, I think Hawke's death did as much for Labour there as Lange's did for Labour here. In other words zilch.
Have you really forgotten the massive bribe of the interest free student loans? Now that was what saved Labour in 2005.
I would agree with you about the reaction to Lange's death. I was sad that he had died so young, given that he was less than a year older than I was. He was truly a breath of fresh air to New Zealand politics after the dire days of Muldoon, and I voted for his party twice at the time he was leader. However by 2005 he had no place in the Labour ranks.
I just don't think his death had any effect on the 2005 voting, despite what Micky Savage seems to think in his comment just below this. How MS comes to his opinion about my response is beyond me.
“You don’t really think that Lange’s death had an effect do you? Personally, having seen the Australian result, I think Hawke’s death did as much for Labour there as Lange’s did for Labour here.”
I don’t think you should hold out your personal response as an example of what much of the population went through.
This is going to be tight one, but the mad monk is gone.
Buttons looks like he’s back with a 3.8% margin
I’ll be piss if the Lib’s get back in as Ubet had the Libs at 15/1 and my bookie had them at 25/1 with a hang House of Representatives at 50/1 before the SocMo called the election as i didn’t put any money on the muppets as Labour was almost even money.
I wouldn’t trust any exited polls tonight or pre election polls according to Antony Green
Quicker than a rat up a drain pipe and a downed brown one the ozzie election turned into a landslide for the ……….crackle…crackle….pop…splutter……… hissssssssssssssssssssssssssssssshhhhhhh…….poof
The latest from the Antony Green, he is saying if the Libs don’t lose any seats in WA they will have just sneak over the line and if they don’t they will be in minority government.
Abbott is irrelevant. He would have probably gone before the next term was up. This is no consolation. The ALP was destroyed tonight. Australians seems to care more about their retirement nest egg than their fellow countrymen. Similar case here.
Australians seems to care more about their retirement nest egg than their fellow countrymen.
Given that their 'fellow countrymen' don't appear to care much about them either, is this not surprising?
I'm not arguing this is a good thing, quite the opposite, environments that are relatively low trust and high threat will reliably induce people to vote conservative.
Old Barnaby give the Labour Party an all might spray, about Labour giving the working class seats the two finger salute in Qld. As the Libs/Nats have picked a number of working class seats.
But in saying that a number of the wealthy electorates the Libs are struggling because of leftist independents and greens have been running a strong campaign in those seats, I’m sort of thinking had Labour not stood any candidates in those seats? Labour might have its nose in front, but Labour haven’t giving some working class seats an up yours in Qld and else where then this election would’ve been a Labour win.
I forgot that big Clive Palmer’s deal over first preferences to the Liberal/ Nats has also killed off a Labour Government especially in Qld.
Barnaby is a fool. Carrying on about 'working class' when his party will gleefully shaft them for the big agriculture and mining interests that bankroll him.
Off the ABC: "Many commentators thought this was going to be a big night for Labor but early results are worrying for the party, with Penny Wong acknowledging that Queensland is a problem."
Queensland is a problem? Fact saying that like it's a new thing. Isn't that where Pauline Hanson is from?
Yeah. I don't see how Labor can do it now. Only good thing to come out of this is that Shorten and the rest of these empty suits will be cleaned out over the next 3 years and a new generation will come through, who will move away from the Blairite triangulation.
Recriminations are already starting in ALP with some pointing the finger at Shorten. It's funny … just a few days ago I was wondering if the Aussies would end up with an Ed Miliband situation on Election Night … Polls pointing to a Lab victory … but an unpopular leader proving decisive when potential swing-voters to Labor actually entered the booths.
Generally around 10 points behind Scotty in Pref PM Polls … & with big Dissatisfaction numbers.
Whether or not the Shorten factor proved absolutely decisive … it almost certainly played some part in these pretty dismal results.
I’m told there has been a swing against to Warren what’s has name in the NT which has a Labour safe seat the early 80’s. Antony Green has said that it’s impossible for Labour to form Government, so its going to be either majority or minority government for the Libs/ Nat.
The figures from Qld are very similar to old Johnny Howard’s win back in 2004
Sorry I seem I can’t reply to post here via my IPad for some reason. Is there any fix for this problem?
Great day for Au if it goes to plan for Scomo, Likewise no pesky abbott causing mischief in the background Morrison seems a straight up and likeable guy, Short dodgy in person and in past
Yes I think ScoMo won’t be having a knife throwing contest during this term and I wouldn’t be surprised if we could see a possible a term Lib/Nat Government (yuck)
Millsy @ 14.1, it’s more of a dig at Labour for sucking up to the big end of the town and giving the working class seats the flick and you now something is wrong when those usually Labour held seats have gone over to the Lib or Nats or independent. I believe if Albo had been the Labour Leader these working class/ Labour seats would’ve been held or gained
Not sure working class how we traditionally see it really exists any more as a unified voting class or that if it does labour really represents it Labour is more upper middle class Champaign socialists and identity politics, likewise anti Christian that does not help with this class if it still exists
Christians seem to have the habit of denying science and telling people who they and cannot have intimate relationships with and what they can do with their bodies. Labour should be damn well anti Christian.
Sure they can ignore a large voting block across many identities and classes Its a very naive and selected view of Christianity you have Millsy focussing on the fundamentalist who are a very small minority Not all Christian’s have a simplistic view of Christianity as a old white gut sitting on a cloud and firing thunder bolts hating gays and adulterers
Christians will purge evolution from schools and take gays out the back and shoot them given half the chance. Look at what has happened in Alabama when you give the god botherers full control of things. Of course you don't mind women being told what they can and cannot do.
Yes dear, Nz and Au are exactly like Alabama, similarly let’s deals in extremes Maybe not extreme socialism does not have a great past in taking out and shooting any one who does not agree with it, nor in controlling women reproductive decisions
Communist countries such as East Germany and Poland had abortion on demand and full access to birth control. Things that can only happen be imposing restrictions on the god botherers.
Have a look at communist China abortion 1 child policy and practice , 2 levels telling you how many you can have and forced abortion if you break the rules Let’s not even get to how they treated those lucky enough to survive the policy, if they felt a problem Ughurs the most recent recent poor souls who need to fit in to the socialist nirvana
Bewildered @ 23.1, it was one of the causes, but I don’t it was a major issue in my books. It think the biggest issue is around the middle class toffs and the workers in Labour seat turning to the Liberal/ Nats? As old shiffy Shorten didn’t seem to to properly explain Labour’s policy on tax, negative gearing, or dividend share tax etc.
Bewildered @ 24.1 I fully agree with your comment that is more a middle class toffs party now than looking after the workers or underprivileged and really don’t give them a toss nowadays
Sort of agree EKW but not sure the average Aussie worker is that bad off, compared to kiwi low skilled labour etc they are pretty well looked after. This voting block plus tradies etc are no longer traditional labour or exist as a unified voting class The underprivileged are another matter and don’t tend to vote or a relatively small cohort , similarly the so called working class are not big on massive redistribution of their hard earned income or seeing their jobs destroyed by greens or transformation that hits their hip pocket
Old Barrie Cassidy, said yo can’t have an ambitious manifesto now from opposition almost shades of poor old Foot and old Hewson with Keating which was mean to be a Lib election win.
Millsy@ 26.1 Yes Labour has almost a shade of Blair’s New Labour and they wonder why the workers, the underprivileged have given them the two fingers and bugged off to the blue side or green of politics.
My electorate of Lingiari has had a 6.3% swing to the Country Liberal Party against the sitting Labour member which is normally a safe Labour seat, but this seat covers about 90% of the NT so there is a lot of remote polling votes to come in yet and at the moment the young lady J Price from the CLP is currently ahead. Knowing her mum Bess Price and her daughters background, I will say this seat will change hands for the first time since the 80’s when this seat was formed.
Unbelievable result. The right certainly know how to win elections. Hopefully the Australian Labor party can rebuild and win back those voters who have clearly abandoned them.
Congratulations to Scott Morrison. The accidental PM has personally pulled off the totally unexpected. He will likely be a decent PM even if the left won't be thrilled with his govt, we could certainly have hoped for a different outcome.
From the moment ScoMo became PM he's juggled a series of disunity crisis' that would have destroyed many others. You have to have some respect for this; managing through tough times competently is an under-rated skill.
Shorten was terribly unlucky, up against Turnbull he would have likely won. I've met him in person and he's impressive enough. But resigning is his only option and the ALP will go through the process of coming to terms with what has happened.
I've no particular sense of why QLD led the swing against them, but the unpalatable truth is that across the entire country the left has lost what should have been an unloseable election. They should have done better everywhere; not dissimilar to how Clinton lost to Trump, only this time without the populist demagogue to blame. Hopefully the ALP will take ownership of this hard truth with quiet dignity and intellectual integrity.
A successful adoption of the GOP tactic of reducing voter enrollment – a win for John Howard. There is no way Queensland would have gone so well for the Coalition if all the Kiwis there had voted.
There is also the white man thing, security in those of their kind continuing to rule – the abuse of women in the Liberal caucus probably won them more votes than it lost.
And the capacity of the boomers to look after themselves is going to be their generational legacy …
There is no way Queensland would have gone so well for the Coalition if all the Kiwis there had voted.
Well in fact many of us Kiwis in Australia are effectively disenfranchised in both countries. We can't vote in Australia and often we can't in NZ either. The rules require that we either:
a New Zealand citizen who has been in New Zealand at any point in the past three years,or
a New Zealand permanent resident who has been in New Zealand at any point in the past 12 months.
I'm not sure what fraction of the 600,000 kiwis would be disqualified by this but it would be significant. Plus there are several extra steps involved in making an online or overseas vote. It's not surprising only a tiny fraction of ex-pats finish up actually casting a vote.
Australia has always had a "citizens only" voting qualification, unlike NZ where permanent residents can vote as well.
So I don't think the "Kiwi factor" would have made any difference in the Australian election (in Queensland). Even before the changes in 2001, most Kiwis did not take out Australian citizenship.
And even if Kiwis could vote, many would vote for the Liberals.
Suck it up sun shine and just accept it not every one agrees with your world view Democracy is the winner on the day Whining and throwing out stock lefty excuses is sad The Sun came up this morning ( just a little brighter) 😊
Gloating is ugly James. The only purpose for making that comment was to inflict a bit more pain on people who you know will already be disappointed and therefore vulnerable.
Being despondent that the electorate plainly gives no fucks about the environment and that religious extremists will likely end up running the shop isn't blaming others.
Yes it is. The Libs had gone through a catastrophic leadership knife fight, the ALP was leading all the polls, the tide of opinion on climate change is turning, the issue of illegal immigration has cooled dramatically, even the media wasn't all bad as usual … all the big cards were stacked in their favour. Yet still they couldn't win. They have to look to themselves long and hard as to why.
Blaming 'racist/fanatic fuckheads in the electorate' is the hallmark of losers.
Blaming 'racist/fanatic fuckheads in the electorate' is the hallmark of losers.
Going too far there Redlogix.
My initial reaction when hearing the news this morning was:
"well that's it. Trump America has arrived in Australia."
Actually it was always there but now they are out in the open. And that is the darned truth. It's not blaming others.
When the towns and cities start going up in flames and they hop in their little boats and row across the Tasman, we'll turn them away like they turn other desperate folks away now. That'll learn them.
S'alright James and co. I don't really mean it. I don't think. 😳
Actually it was always there but now they are out in the open.
There may well be some element truth to of that, but to imply that every Australian who voted Lib yesterday is a racist fuckhead modeled on Trump's America … is still avoiding the truth. It's the same game the Democrats have played pointing the finger at the 'deplorables' instead of doing the honest work to understand why they're unelectable.
I did not take that meaning from Joe 90's comment because I thought the same albeit in a less orally provocative way.
The "racist fuckheads" voted for the Libs 'in toto' otherwise the result would have been different. Doesn't mean all the Lib voters fall into this category and Joe 90 wasn't suggesting as much.
I haven't checked the figures this morning. but it looked like Queensland was the big spoiler last night and that is not surprising. The state has a reputation for having a very large contingent of "racist fuckheads" going back many decades.
The state has a reputation for having a very large contingent of "racist fuckheads" going back many decades.
Yes while they are more conservative (and this has geographic parallels with the USA) it's really not dramatically different; it's the usual mix just a little more tilted.
This idea that Australia is full of six fingered rednecks is just a Kiwi conceit.
An interesting point that speaks to an underlying problem we have with democracy:
There is a longer-term issue involved in this national outcome.
The rebuff to Labor amounts to a warning for all parties and politicians not to enter an election with a detailed policy package announced well in advance.
The political atmosphere here and in other democracies favours simplistic certainties, not bold change and vision.
As Liberal John Hewson found in 1993, Labor’s Bill Shorten has learned in 2019: Being a reformer exposes you to misrepresentation by an opponent unencumbered by fresh direction.
It's arguable Ardern only just squeaked into power here in NZ because she didn't have enough time to articulate a detailed vision, and part of her on-going success is that she's preferred the pragmatic over idealistic.
<blockquote>
It's arguable Ardern only just squeaked into power here in NZ because she didn't have enough time to articulate a detailed vision,
</blockquote>
it wasn’t her lack of vision – it was how much she was willing to give Winston to buy power with our money. That squeaked her into power.
Ardern did remarkably better in the election than would have been expected months earlier. If she hadn't pulled Labour up in to the high 30's Winston would have been irrelevant.
What Ardern and Morrison have in common, along with the likes of Trump, was a lack of incumbency, a lack of detailed political track record on which they could be attacked.
It is a triumph for Australia. The people have chosen a pro growth path that should sustain for the next two decades. Lip service will be paid to the Paris Agreement, preceeding a withdrawal in 2025.
Indeed. Only this time the left really has nowhere else to place the blame. Morrison came back from political death, ran an effective political campaign and has won decisively. The left got outplayed … again.
If we want to change the outcomes we can only change ourselves. Whining that the other guys are nasty people, that they cheat, they treat us mean and don't recognise our intellectual and moral superiority, is just that … whining.
Here is my starting point. The conversation needs to understand what politics is really for and how we can play a more effective role in it. Hint, it isn't about 'winning and losing':
The paradox of running an effective political campaign versus effectively running a country. The campaign is the glossy add, full of appealing promises. The term in Government is the product. Voters are the consumers that are lured by ads making the assumption that the better the ad, the better the product. It is much easier to improve the ad than the product; once the sale is done, the money is in. People tend to by brands they know and trust.
And may this excellent trend continue Hard lefties are really deplorable as comments by Ann, SPC and Joe 90 detest I am always surprised why they are surprised when their know all, superiority complex sees their favourites who hold similar world views are crushed at the ballot box
The conflation by pulling these extreme comments with liberal election win to demean liberal voters Joe is the issue and I suggest you know it Not to mention using this crazy womens comments as your shield is deplorable but a common tactic of the left
The Australian liberals are heading down the same path as the GOP. Goldwater warned about the preachers getting control of the [Republican] party and the past while has shown him to be correct.
Just because they say it Joe it don’t make it so Re US good chance democrats pick up the next election if they can get their loony left rump under control The centre left or right do not like the extremes
Yes. The Libs. ran a false smear campaign on Federal Taxes in the same way the Nats ran the campaign on CGT. We've got a name for it – Dirty Politics. Others call is Fake News.
There may have been misrepresentation but there was also 'incentive'….it seems that less tax remains a vote winner, and once 'less tax' is in place it is almost impossible to reverse…a fundamental difficulty for any 'left' party…and fertile ground for libertarians.
The flip side when a new tax is introduced it is very hard to remove so it’s not really difficult to understand why people from all persuasions don’t like more tax If labour have just worked this out they really do live in La la land
On the contrary, removing taxes if the easiest thing in the political realm, as you yourself note tax is broadly unpopular, the difficulty is the likely necessity to remove services to compensate for the lost revenue…that appears to be more politicly palatable, especially if those services are not likely to be accessed by your constituency
Getting rid of tax burden and replacing it with another tax is not getting rid of tax burden overall but moving the deck chairs Proposing new taxes and increasing overall tax burden and believing that will not be popular is a “know shit Sherlock moment” If labour Have just realised this more fool them
"Getting rid of tax burden and replacing it with another tax is not getting rid of tax burden overall but moving the deck chairs Proposing new taxes and increasing overall tax burden and believing that will not be popular"
Others call it Politics, not that labour is not prone to a healthy amount of bs and smearing If you can’t handle the heat get out of the kitchen This was labour’s election to lose, they did in a grandiose way
Pat @42. Blaming National for this governments inability to implement a CGT is a disgrace, Labour in particular have no one to blame but themselves. Ardern and co threw in the towel before they even got off the stool. They let National control the narrative because they refused to go in and fight for what's right. That's on us, accept it.
Meh…you would appear to be a lost argument looking for somewhere to land…and your comment to Mickey Boyle is of no relevance to my response to his confusion
Come on, Pat! We all know that Jacinda Ardern campaigned hard for CGT in Oz. She even sent over Sir Michael but National got wind of it and sent Simon to neutralise Sir Mike. It paid off, didn’t it? The Mad Monk is gone. This is the sole reason why JC will be the next leader of National. Please keep up!
Your ducking for cover Pat Mickey highlighted as with Ardern and Nz labour needed to own Cgt shambles LABOUR Au need to own this election loss , you seem to be arguing that they where blindsided by the people response to their tax policy and the libs exploiting this As Mickey indicates they need to own this if they where to dumb to understand that this is what they would be judged and attacked on, well as I said more full then In reality I think it was way more than tax
There is no need to duck for cover as I have made a brief judgement on that which swung the Aussie election, is it the sole reason?undoubtably not but I suggest it is a key reason for although they lost badly in Queensland (apparently) their support in the largest states failed to counter that…two states with falling property values I may add.
As to ownership i made no judgement though that should be obvious in a democracy
Apologies that was my fault for the confusion. I was actually referring to Pat's comment at 42.1.1. And Arderns and Labours inability to even put up an ounce of fight for a policy they say they believe in. Less tax is currently only a vote winner because our side refuses to convey what effects a CGT etc would have on the average kiwi. We seem reluctant to fight for our policies, which leads to plenty of poll watching without much real action. Year of delivery, transformational, it all means nothing if you are not prepared to state your case and fight for it. Sorry but for some reason when I press reply I cannot type anything in the comment box?
Again Im not sure why you are taking umbrage as my comment at 42.1.1 makes no reference to CGT, National, Ardern or even NZ…it is a general observation about the implications of tax policy on parties with a public ownership model, or 'the left".
This is what you wrote, "it seems that less tax remains a vote winner, and once 'less tax' is in place it is almost impossible to reverse". That's all I'm arguing against. Less tax is only currently a vote winner because those on our side who are currently in power and whom believe in paying more to support our vulnerable or deliver better social policies, refuse to fight and counter the false narrative that we allow our opponents to foster. I have no doubt that Ardern and co could've got a CGT across the line, my point is that they didnt even try. Less tax is only a vote winner because voters do not see how an alternative would benefit themselves and society.
"Blaming National for this governments inability to implement a CGT is a disgrace, Labour in particular have no one to blame but themselves. Ardern and co threw in the towel before they even got off the stool. They let National control the narrative because they refused to go in and fight for what's right. That's on us, accept it."
and wheres the blame and lack of acceptance?….it certainly isnt in 42 or 42.1
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by Don Franks Way back in the bad old days before cell phones and computers, I helped a fellow car factory militant campaign for a union position. My mate belonged to what was then called the Engineers Union, at that ...
Writing in The Spinoff, former National Minister Wayne Mapp argues that a good first step to meeting the targets of the Zero Carbon Act would be to end fossil fuelled cars. He's right (and I've talked at length about how ...
Yesterday the government announced its Zero Carbon Bill, which would establish a framework for long-term emissions reductions. The most controversial aspect of the Bill is its agricultural targets: for the first time, farmers will face an explicit responsibility to clean ...
This week, TVNZ’s Sunday programme led with a feature about sperm donation. Specifically, about a ‘freelance’ sperm donor, going by the name Tauranga Tony. Real name Tony Ross, he has donated sperm to a number of women. Quite a large number, ...
Shortly after being elected, Labour promised to be "the most open, most transparent Government that New Zealand has ever had". I've commentedrepeatedly on how Labour is failing to meet that promise in its behaviour over parliamentary written questions. And ...
Something odious about the Zero Carbon Bill: it expands the Climate Change Response Act's existing secrecy clause to cover "the Climate Change Commission, in respect of the performance of its functions or exercise of its powers under Parts 1A to ...
Press Release by Speak Up For Women Wellington, 8 May 2019 Speak Up For Women NZ says the sacking of a gender critical British tax expert in the United Kingdom serves as a warning of what is to come if ...
Improving the safety of all road users is the focus of a new public consultation document on the issue of drug driver testing. Plans for public consultation on options to improve the drug driver testing process have been announced by ...
Police Minister Stuart Nash says calling a cop suddenly got a whole lot easier with the launch of a ground-breaking new service for non-emergency calls. “The single non-emergency number ‘ten-five’ is designed to provide better service for the public and ...
Frontline Police numbers have been boosted with today’s deployment of 77 new officers to the regions.Police Minister Stuart Nash today congratulated the recruits of Wing 325 who graduated at a formal ceremony at the Royal New Zealand Police College. ...
One of the biggest IT projects ever undertaken in the state sector has successfully passed its latest hurdle with the transition of more than 19.7 million taxpayer accounts from one Inland Revenue computer system to another. Revenue Minister Stuart Nash ...
The first nationwide snapshot of the consumption of restricted drugs indicates the prevalence of methamphetamine use in New Zealand, says Police Minister Stuart Nash. “The first quarterly analysis of the nationwide wastewater testing programme reinforces the coalition government’s determination to ...
The spectre of trout farming has reared up from the murky shadows of the previous National government’s treaty deals. Māori owners of Lake Rotoaira near Turangi are reported to be backing an attempt to allow trout farming. ...
Our education system is a slowly unfolding disaster. Too many kids leave school without basic literacy and numeracy skills. In 2014, the Tertiary Education Commission found about half of Year 11 students achieved the international reading and numeracy benchmarks. ...
Free speech or hate speech? When do words go too far? We debate whether New Zealand needs new hate speech laws with ACT leader David Seymour and Labour MP Louisa Wall. ...
The Hauraki Gulf Forum, the statutory body tasked with progressing integrated management of the Hauraki Gulf Marine Park, today recommended two significant goals for the important and much-loved marine park. ...
“I was very disappointed that last night all my Minister could do when confronted with the reality of teaching, was to mouth the same old clichés and platitudes. ...
The Sensible Sentencing Trust say the Children’s Commissioner is guilty of riding the ‘Colonialism’ bandwagon by blaming racism and colonialism after Oranga Tamariki removed a child from its mother’s care. Children’s Commissioner Judge Andrew ...
The New Zealand Geographic Board Ngā Pou Taunaha o Aotearoa (NZGB) is inviting submissions on proposals to create dual Māori–English names for 16 sounds and inlets in Fiordland. The NZGB says restoring traditional Ngāi Tahu names alongside ...
Few of us want to think about something happening to us that might impact on our ability to make sound decisions. The reality is, we can’t predict what’s going to happen in life that may impact on our health or ...
Former retired Probation officer Tom Hemopo and Māori Climate Commissioner, Donna Awatere-Huata are due to give evidence this afternoon at the Māori Prisoner’s Voting Inquiry at the Waitangi Trbunal in Wellington. ...
May 20 (BusinessDesk) - The National Party proposes ambitious new trade targets for New Zealand's relations with both China and the United States in a foreign affairs discussion document released this morning for public consultation. ...
Christchurch Central Labour MP Dr Duncan Webb has been criticized by the NZ Jewish Council for his promotion of the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) movement directed at Israel. ...
The highly publicised case of Nicky Stevens who died in 2015 while in the legal care of the Waikato DHB is to be put before the Prime Minister next week. ...
New Zealand's first shelter dedicated to housing pets affected by family violence is being built. Pet Refuge will provide a temporary safe haven for pets, while their owners escape abuse. The initiative comes as new research from Women’s Refuge reveals ...
Forest and Bird, The Tree Council and the Waitakere Ranges Protection Society are dismayed but not surprised at the recent attacks on the scientific credibility of the Auckland Council Monitoring Report that describes the increased spread of kauri ...
Kiwibuild is turning into a corporate welfare racket, says the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union in response to news that none of the seven Kiwibuild homes marketed in Christchurch have sold, and therefore the Government is likely to pay out the ...
Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s budget later this month could have contained an additional $6 billion in spending without costing taxpayers a single cent more, Social Credit Party Leader, Chris Leitch told the party’s Canterbury Regional conference ...
New Zealand’s specialist sexual violence service sector is heartened to hear today that the government has demonstrated its commitment to the Well-Being of its citizens by announcing a significant injection of money into the work the sector undertakes ...
The spectre of trout farming has reared up from the murky shadows of the previous National government’s treaty deals. Māori owners of Lake Rotoaira near Turangi are reported to be backing an attempt to allow trout farming. ...
The Aotearoa Legal Workers’ Union (ALWU) launches today to advocate for all legal workers and to improve working conditions for junior lawyers in the legal sector. ...
Tammy Ngawhika has recently achieved her dream of becoming a homeowner, together with her four children. She attained her goal through Progressive Home Ownership. Progressive Home ownership is one of the KiwiBuy products the Government is being ...
The National Network of Stopping Violence Services today welcomed the Ardern Government’s Family Violence and Sexual Violence Package announcement, part of its Wellbeing Budget. ...
A distressed and traumatized grandmother from the Rodney Electorate will meet with Rodney Electorate MP Mark Mitchell on Monday, May 20, 10am at the Rodney Electorate Office, Tamariki House, 7 Tamariki Avenue, Orewa. The Rodney Electorate MP has been ...
Over 400,000 New Zealanders say they would definitely seek out medicinal cannabis products when they become widely available from 2020, according to a large independent survey and the first of its kind, just released. ...
The so-called “ Christchurch Call ” summit in Paris on Wednesday, led by New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and French President Emmanuel Macron, marked a significant escalation of the drive by governments throughout the world to censor ...
A new nationwide Curia Market Research poll shows the gap between supporters and opponents of euthanasia is narrowing, and that many people withdraw their support when asked to consider some of the details involved in the End of Life Choice ...
The recently published article by TVNZ is yet another piece of over sensationalised journalism that drives a wedge into New Zealand society. International Students are an integral party of what makes New Zealand a diverse and unique country in the ...
Simon Shepherd: Minister for Children Tracey Martin, Thanks for your time this morning. So, we’ve seen this jump in the number of newborn Maori babies being taken from their parents in the last three years. Is that because it’s a ...
Recently I was talking with a group of people about the growing issue of internet harassment, and in particular, gender based online abuse. We talked about how online violence directed at women is a symptom of deep-seated gender inequality, and ...
Former Hawke’s Bay woman Lou Hutchinson, who has this week been setting up action group Whanau First in response to a meeting she staged in Raglan on Sunday to challenge Oranga Tamariki child removal strategies, said she’s not surprised by ...
New Zealanders with an interest in the outdoors are being invited to have their say on legislation that helps them access nature throughout the country. ...
Mayor Supports Random Roadside Drug Testing South Taranaki District Mayor Ross Dunlop urges the Government to take immediate action on the introduction of random roadside drug testing. Mayor Dunlop makes the call for action after reading the coroner’s ...
Fish and Game New Zealand welcomes the decision by Environment Minister David Parker to appoint a formal investigator to assess Otago Regional Council’s performance of their RMA functions in relation to freshwater management. ...
PRESS RELEASE “Tanzania has been at the forefront of cleaning up their environment of plastic waste in recent years” says Stuart Batty, Honorary Consul for the United Republic of Tanzania . The Government have announced that Effective 1 June 2019, ...
Forest industry leaders say the pre-Budget announcement by Forestry Minister Shane Jones of additional regional resources for Te Uru Rākau is potentially of great benefit to regional New Zealand. ...
Eight Regional Councils, in partnership with their Territorial Authorities and others, have applied for and will receive $14 million of co-funding from the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) to obtain, LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) elevation datasets. ...
"The latest opinion poll results are in, and 55% of New Zealanders want a New Zealander as our next head of state, only 39% want the next British monarch. This is the third poll in the past three years showing ...
KFC is off the menu this weekend as hundreds of Fast Food workers employed by Restaurant Brands and members of Unite Union take strike action this weekend. ...
The Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR) who conduct drug tests on blood samples for a range of government organisations is supporting the introduction of a roadside saliva (oral fluid) test for drug-impaired drivers. ESR forensic toxicologist ...
Today, we celebrate sexual and gender diversity in our communities and welcome the fact that more people than ever are free to identify their gender and love whom they choose. We welcome the progress that has occurred, both in Aotearoa ...
Māori screen organisation Ngā Aho Whakaari says Māori screen practitioners are having to wait until the end of the year for decisions to be made about the promised overhaul of the Māori Media sector in the review being conducted by ...
Up to 120 PSA and E tu union coordinators, contact centre workers and administrators at Access Community Health will be walking off the job from 9:00am as part of a nationwide walk-off. ...
Auckland Action Against Poverty is calling on the CEO and deputy CEO of the Ministry of Social Development to resign following a report by the Privacy Commissioner, which found that the Ministry was unlawfully breaching beneficiaries’ privacy. The report ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sabin Zahirovic, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of Sydney Scientists are among the millions of die-hard Game of Thrones fans digesting the show’s finale today. The striking landscape of Game of Thrones has ...
It’s week six of Dancing with the Stars, and the cream has risen from beneath the crop! Sam Brooks power-ranks the contestants.Week six! We’re at the stage of the competition where I can listen to a judge’s feedback and guess, with ...
By Michael Andrew Journalism students across Australia collaborated in an immense project to cover this month’s federal election. Organised through The Junction, a website showcasing and promoting student journalism, the coverage featured in-depth stories profiling every candidate in each ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University The last thing the world needs at a moment of significant trade tensions between the United States and China is a Middle ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucy Deng, Staff Specialist Paediatrician, National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance; Clinical Associate Lecturer, Children’s Hospital Westmead Clinical School, University of Sydney About 4.1 million Australians are under-vaccinated, meaning they’ve received ...
By RNZ Pacific Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare is coming under increasing pressure from his own MPs to switch the country’s political allegiance from Taiwan to China, report local news media. Solomon Islands is one of 17 nations ...
The legislation was introduced by the National government in May 2017 but has languished without progress ever since - it’s the oldest non-members bill yet to receive a first reading by a long way ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Cameron, Research Fellow, University of Sydney Polls had predicted a narrow win for Labor in this election, so what explains the Coalition victory? Data from the Australian Election Study (AES), based ...
Dr Bryce EdwardsThe stars seem to be aligning in favour of the establishment of a socially conservative Christian-based political party, making it more than just a vague possibility. However, some big hurdles remain in place before the National Party ...
After being lobbied to take a stand on scientific terms, the prime minister’s chief science adviser attempted to find out who makes the call on whether or not to approve an application by a majority-Malaysian-owned company to mine at the ...
A Taranaki couple threw in their high-flying careers to bring people together through the joys of good baking.Tucked down an alleyway off New Plymouth’s main street, just a stone’s throw from the famous Len Lye Centre, you’ll find Billow Bakery ...
Broadcasting legend Elizabeth Alley reviews Loving Sylvie, the gorgeous, ephemeral new novel by Elizabeth Smither.A bride is rowed across a grey-green lake to her wedding. She rehearses her new name, “Sylvie Grace Taverner,” as the waters lap the boat. There’s ...
If the wellbeing budget is going to do something about the long-term productivity of the country, it must address the growing gap between digital haves and have-nots, writes Grant Thornton’s Helen Fortune.Many fear that increasing digitisation and automation will result ...
In a series of posts on social media, it is claimed that the touring players targeted a group with ‘homophobic slurs, limp wrists and high pitched voices’.Several members of The Crusaders rugby team have been accused of homophobia following an ...
Tof Eklund reviews Lovestruck, a free-to-play treasure trove of romantic queer gaming content.Voltage’s Lovestruck does not, at first glance, look particularly queer-inclusive. Created in 2017 to unify four otome (‘women’s romance’) mobile games, this game hub now houses at least ...
The Australian left will need to do a far better job of connecting with voters – and what they really care about – if they’re ever going to regain power, writes Australian political historian Geoffrey Robinson.The Australian election result was ...
The National Party has put the relationship with the United States front and centre of its foreign policy, saying it's a relationship that will be prioritised. ...
Katie Meadows reviews Catch-22, George Clooney’s bleak and boring TV adaptation of the classic novel.Even if you are not familiar with Joseph Heller’s 1961 satirical novel, you will be familiar with its title — a catch-22 at its most technical is ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen G Bosi, Senior Lecturer in Physics, University of New England Curious Kids is a series for children. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to ...
The government is investing more than $7.7 million in upgrading the SuperGold card website and an app, plus $600,000 on digital literacy training for seniors. ...
By Marija Taflaga of the Australian National University in Canberra The man that has “always believed in miracles” has just delivered one for the Liberal party. It’s not clear at the time of writing if the government will have ...
May 20 – 26 is macular degeneration awareness week. The subject is a personal one for Grant Thompson and his daughter Donna, who have both been diagnosed the condition which can lead to blindness.“I thought I just needed new glasses, ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage.New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand. Today’s contentGovernment Colin James: Ardern: transformation now or a ...
National leader Simon Bridges says he is happy to give Alfred Ngaro "the space" to explore setting up a Christian values party, but National will stand a candidate in Botany. ...
National leader Simon Bridges says he is happy to give Alfred Ngaro "the space" to explore setting up a Christian values party, but National will stand a candidate in Botany. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Brynn Hibbert, Emeritus Professor of Analytical Chemistry, UNSW We measure stuff all the time – how long, how heavy, how hot, and so on – because we need to for things ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katinka van de Ven, Research Fellow, Drug Policy Modelling Program, SPRC, UNSW Most media reports would have you believe steroid users are predominantly young men suffering a “crisis of male ego” who ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Green, Lecturer, UNSW Can the design of a climate change message change someone’s beliefs? Absolutely, and with a surprisingly powerful correlation. My research found climate change messages that spark fear and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karyn Healy, Researcher, The University of Queensland School bullying can have serious consequences for victims including depression, psychosis, self-harm and suicide. With increasing evidence of harm, a groundswell of school anti-bullying programs ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney Melbourne is growing faster than most cities of similar size in developed countries. Population ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Albo, or Plibersek, or whoever it turns out to be the next Labor leader, might have had a lucky accident. ...
Simon Bridges has been damping down rumours that National Party list MP Alfred Ngaro could split off and set up a Christian values party. Watch live as he speaks to Morning Report. ...
Another KiwiBuild development backed by taxpayer money is failing to generate buyer demand - prompting more calls for Labour's flagship programme to be dumped. ...
Good morning, and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Scott Morrison wins re-election in Australia, major boost in funding for sexual violence services, and stories around Alfred Ngaro party continue to swirl.Few saw it coming, but Australian PM Scott Morrison ...
Auckland today hosts delegations from Los Angeles and Guangzhou in its annual tripartite meeting for economic opportunities between the three cities - at a delicate time of division between the Chinese and US over trade. ...
Auckland's growth pains and urgent needs are well known. But, Rupert Hodson of Beca asks, are we responding as urgently and comprehensively as we should for such a 'crisis'? ...
Wastewater testing provides an objective, standardised way of assessing levels of drug usage, and that has manifold benefits, writes Brent Gilpin of ESR.There are suggestions from time to time that wastewater drug testing is an erosion of our civil liberties and ...
Aussie aussie aussie … 
Perhaps it’s because of the sheer size – and therefore enormous potential – of their country, but Australians have always demonstrated a harder-edged nationalism than have Kiwis. And that tendency has become even more apparent in recent years, when they ...10 hours ago
Current member of the National Party, List MP Alfred Ngaro, has declared he has an intent towards the possibility of setting up a Christian-oriented “values” party. Simon Bridges initially denied discussion, but we all know his denials are really never ...10 hours ago
Australians went to the polls over the weekend, and have apparently re-elected the shit party to government. It was unexpected, but I guess that's what happens when you have a media landscape utterly dominated by a highly partisan monopoly. Meanwhile, ...15 hours ago
New Zealand Union of Students’ Associations National President JamesRanstead argues student voice is crucial in the Reform of VocationalEducation ...15 hours ago
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, May 12 through Sat, May 18, 2019 Editor's Pick 12 excuses for climate inaction and how to refute them Using moral ...2 days ago
While abortion laws in New Zealand are likely to be liberalised, in the US abortion rights are being rolled back. This article from Feminist Current looks at the way the anti abortion movement is reframing its arguments. by Karen Jolly ...3 days ago
A selection of new climate related research articles is shown below. This post has separate sections for: Climate Change, Climate Change Impacts, Climate Change Mitigation, and Other Papers. Climate change An example of principal component analysis application on climate change ...3 days ago
by Sean Kearns It appears that even in Britain, where a lot of unions remain affiliated to Labour, the working class itself is less attached to Labour. The bureaucratic leaderships keep unions chained to Labour, the workers are just not ...3 days ago
In October 2013 I wrote about “Valuing Xero in one hour“, and (although it had a bug) came up with a forecast that justified the then $2.2 billion valuation of Xero with a Weighted Average Cost of Capital of 18%. ...3 days ago
Those with a progressive agenda (and yes, I count myself as one) have been frustrated by our own inability and reluctance to engage head-on in the most important argument in political discourse – the role, function and objective of government.read ...4 days ago
I love the National's Library's Papers Past archive. I've used it many times for work and sometimes just for fun. The one thing I never thought I'd be able to do is vanity-search on it. And yet, here it is: ...5 days ago
Bolton has never conceded that invading Iraq was a mistake, in fact he considers it to this day still as a roaring success. His history in public life is that of an unrepentant, ignorant thug of a politician, a persona ...5 days ago
(fire, California)Some time ago Jeanette Fitzsimons described our action on climate change like a car driving rapidly to a precipice while the occupants argue about whether they should maybe change down a gear. If we are to continue with this ...6 days ago
Organisation for Prohibition of Chemical Weapons headquarters in The Hague. Image credit: Prensa Latina Ready Syria to Cooperate with Organization Against Chemical Weapons Multinational bodies, like ... 6 days ago
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week, i.e., Sun, May 5 through Sat, May 11, 2019 Editor's Pick Proposal to spend 25% of EU budget on climate change Schoolchildren ...1 week ago
Improving the safety of all road users is the focus of a new public consultation document on the issue of drug driver testing. Plans for public consultation on options to improve the drug driver testing process have been announced by ...4 days ago
The spectre of trout farming has reared up from the murky shadows of the previous National government’s treaty deals. Māori owners of Lake Rotoaira near Turangi are reported to be backing an attempt to allow trout farming. ...7 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sabin Zahirovic, Postdoctoral Research Associate, University of Sydney Scientists are among the millions of die-hard Game of Thrones fans digesting the show’s finale today. The striking landscape of Game of Thrones has ...3 hours ago
It’s week six of Dancing with the Stars, and the cream has risen from beneath the crop! Sam Brooks power-ranks the contestants.Week six! We’re at the stage of the competition where I can listen to a judge’s feedback and guess, with ...5 hours ago
By Michael Andrew Journalism students across Australia collaborated in an immense project to cover this month’s federal election. Organised through The Junction, a website showcasing and promoting student journalism, the coverage featured in-depth stories profiling every candidate in each ...5 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Walker, Adjunct Professor, School of Communications, La Trobe University The last thing the world needs at a moment of significant trade tensions between the United States and China is a Middle ...5 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucy Deng, Staff Specialist Paediatrician, National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance; Clinical Associate Lecturer, Children’s Hospital Westmead Clinical School, University of Sydney About 4.1 million Australians are under-vaccinated, meaning they’ve received ...6 hours ago
A little-known piece of 1990s legislation should give the Zero Carbon Bill's doubters pause. ...6 hours ago
By RNZ Pacific Solomon Islands Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare is coming under increasing pressure from his own MPs to switch the country’s political allegiance from Taiwan to China, report local news media. Solomon Islands is one of 17 nations ...7 hours ago
The legislation was introduced by the National government in May 2017 but has languished without progress ever since - it’s the oldest non-members bill yet to receive a first reading by a long way ...7 hours ago
The government has proposed further changes to the emissions trading scheme. ...8 hours ago
Medicinal cannabis firm Cannasouth is poised to become NZX's first initial public offering in two years. ...8 hours ago
9 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul McGreevy, Professor of Animal Behaviour and Animal Welfare Science, University of Sydney In the first edition of On the Origin of Species, Charles Darwin mentions dogs 54 times. He does so ...9 hours ago
After being lobbied to take a stand on scientific terms, the prime minister’s chief science adviser attempted to find out who makes the call on whether or not to approve an application by a majority-Malaysian-owned company to mine at the ...9 hours ago
A Taranaki couple threw in their high-flying careers to bring people together through the joys of good baking.Tucked down an alleyway off New Plymouth’s main street, just a stone’s throw from the famous Len Lye Centre, you’ll find Billow Bakery ...10 hours ago
The National Party is accusing the Environment Minister David Parker of washing his hands of investigations into firefighting foam contamination. ...10 hours ago
Broadcasting legend Elizabeth Alley reviews Loving Sylvie, the gorgeous, ephemeral new novel by Elizabeth Smither.A bride is rowed across a grey-green lake to her wedding. She rehearses her new name, “Sylvie Grace Taverner,” as the waters lap the boat. There’s ...10 hours ago
Kiwi Property has reported a strong full year underlying profit, as it continues to reinvest in its Auckland retail and office properties. ...10 hours ago
Tof Eklund reviews Lovestruck, a free-to-play treasure trove of romantic queer gaming content.Voltage’s Lovestruck does not, at first glance, look particularly queer-inclusive. Created in 2017 to unify four otome (‘women’s romance’) mobile games, this game hub now houses at least ...12 hours ago
Katie Meadows reviews Catch-22, George Clooney’s bleak and boring TV adaptation of the classic novel.Even if you are not familiar with Joseph Heller’s 1961 satirical novel, you will be familiar with its title — a catch-22 at its most technical is ...13 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen G Bosi, Senior Lecturer in Physics, University of New England Curious Kids is a series for children. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to ...13 hours ago
By Marija Taflaga of the Australian National University in Canberra The man that has “always believed in miracles” has just delivered one for the Liberal party. It’s not clear at the time of writing if the government will have ...15 hours ago
The New Zealand Bankers' Association is calling for a rethink of the Reserve Bank’s bank capital proposals to avoid hurting the economy. ...15 hours ago
The country's largest power company, Genesis Energy, is easing off its plan to stop using coal completely by 2030. ...16 hours ago
It's not building materials and labour costs making new homes cost so much in New Zealand. Bernard Hickey analyses a new report. ...16 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Brynn Hibbert, Emeritus Professor of Analytical Chemistry, UNSW We measure stuff all the time – how long, how heavy, how hot, and so on – because we need to for things ...17 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katinka van de Ven, Research Fellow, Drug Policy Modelling Program, SPRC, UNSW Most media reports would have you believe steroid users are predominantly young men suffering a “crisis of male ego” who ...17 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebecca Green, Lecturer, UNSW Can the design of a climate change message change someone’s beliefs? Absolutely, and with a surprisingly powerful correlation. My research found climate change messages that spark fear and ...17 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karyn Healy, Researcher, The University of Queensland School bullying can have serious consequences for victims including depression, psychosis, self-harm and suicide. With increasing evidence of harm, a groundswell of school anti-bullying programs ...17 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Stanley, Adjunct Professor, Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, University of Sydney Melbourne is growing faster than most cities of similar size in developed countries. Population ...17 hours ago
Anna Rawhiti-Connell gives her selection of the delights of the Auckland Writers' Festival. ...18 hours ago
Good morning, and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Scott Morrison wins re-election in Australia, major boost in funding for sexual violence services, and stories around Alfred Ngaro party continue to swirl.Few saw it coming, but Australian PM Scott Morrison ...18 hours ago
Auckland today hosts delegations from Los Angeles and Guangzhou in its annual tripartite meeting for economic opportunities between the three cities - at a delicate time of division between the Chinese and US over trade. ...18 hours ago
Auckland's growth pains and urgent needs are well known. But, Rupert Hodson of Beca asks, are we responding as urgently and comprehensively as we should for such a 'crisis'? ...20 hours ago
I just really want Peter Dutton to lose his seat above all else, whatever the overall outcome. That guy is the most nasty racist, bigoted PoS.
And for no more Pauline Hanson or Fraser Anning, for that matter.
[I have changed your Username because you appeared to be using your real name – Incognito]
Please see my Moderation note.
Oi, oi, oi – go Labor.
The Pollbludger website gets the numbers from the lat poll of some 3000 people
On the primary vote, Labor is steady on 37% and, contrary to Ipsos and Essential Research, the Coalition is down a point to 38%; the Green are steady on 9%; the United Australia Party is steady on 4%; and One Nation is down one to 3%. https://www.pollbludger.net When they trnsfer that to TPP it becomes 51.5-48.5. labour- coalition. Don't ask me how.As while parties give how to vote cards voters don't always follow that. One nation and UAP voters seem to split their preferences say 55-60% coalition and 40-45% to labour
A bizzarre system for a bizarre nation. And why are there so many independents? Is that too a result of their bizarre system?
more a thing of swing voters like in the US? Not wanting to give away party affiliation or not having one?
I mean here in NZ we could argue that anyone not with a party membership is an independent? No?
Exit polling is currently suggesting a Labor win.
Will the last act of Bob Hawke’s life push Labor over the line?
Shades of the 2005 New Zealand election: David Lange died just before it, and Labour narrowly won.
You don't really think that Lange's death had an effect do you? Personally, having seen the Australian result, I think Hawke's death did as much for Labour there as Lange's did for Labour here. In other words zilch.
Have you really forgotten the massive bribe of the interest free student loans? Now that was what saved Labour in 2005.
You're right, no doubt. Lange's death led to a great deal of sentimental reminiscing, but probably had little or no influence on the way people voted.
I would agree with you about the reaction to Lange's death. I was sad that he had died so young, given that he was less than a year older than I was. He was truly a breath of fresh air to New Zealand politics after the dire days of Muldoon, and I voted for his party twice at the time he was leader. However by 2005 he had no place in the Labour ranks.
I just don't think his death had any effect on the 2005 voting, despite what Micky Savage seems to think in his comment just below this. How MS comes to his opinion about my response is beyond me.
How MS comes to his opinion about my response is beyond me.
Don't worry, Alwyn—I think MS is a little down after yesterday's vote.
“You don’t really think that Lange’s death had an effect do you? Personally, having seen the Australian result, I think Hawke’s death did as much for Labour there as Lange’s did for Labour here.”
I don’t think you should hold out your personal response as an example of what much of the population went through.
Very early days (& huge Early Vote which could change things) … but might just be an upset Coalition victory.
Abbott out, but.
This is going to be tight one, but the mad monk is gone.
Buttons looks like he’s back with a 3.8% margin
I’ll be piss if the Lib’s get back in as Ubet had the Libs at 15/1 and my bookie had them at 25/1 with a hang House of Representatives at 50/1 before the SocMo called the election as i didn’t put any money on the muppets as Labour was almost even money.
I wouldn’t trust any exited polls tonight or pre election polls according to Antony Green
Quicker than a rat up a drain pipe and a downed brown one the ozzie election turned into a landslide for the ……….crackle…crackle….pop…splutter……… hissssssssssssssssssssssssssssssshhhhhhh…….poof
There is a 4.2% swing for the Libs in QLD and at this stage Labour is stuff unless they pull the red rabbit out of the hat in WA
Tas and Vic are only about 2.2% to 2.4% swing to Labour
The latest from the Antony Green, he is saying if the Libs don’t lose any seats in WA they will have just sneak over the line and if they don’t they will be in minority government.
Banana-Benders (Qlders) have not been kind to ALP.
What's ALP done to them?
Depressing.
only positive is Abbott is losing to climate change activist
Abbott is irrelevant. He would have probably gone before the next term was up. This is no consolation. The ALP was destroyed tonight. Australians seems to care more about their retirement nest egg than their fellow countrymen. Similar case here.
Australians seems to care more about their retirement nest egg than their fellow countrymen.
Given that their 'fellow countrymen' don't appear to care much about them either, is this not surprising?
I'm not arguing this is a good thing, quite the opposite, environments that are relatively low trust and high threat will reliably induce people to vote conservative.
Old Barnaby give the Labour Party an all might spray, about Labour giving the working class seats the two finger salute in Qld. As the Libs/Nats have picked a number of working class seats.
But in saying that a number of the wealthy electorates the Libs are struggling because of leftist independents and greens have been running a strong campaign in those seats, I’m sort of thinking had Labour not stood any candidates in those seats? Labour might have its nose in front, but Labour haven’t giving some working class seats an up yours in Qld and else where then this election would’ve been a Labour win.
I forgot that big Clive Palmer’s deal over first preferences to the Liberal/ Nats has also killed off a Labour Government especially in Qld.
Barnaby is a fool. Carrying on about 'working class' when his party will gleefully shaft them for the big agriculture and mining interests that bankroll him.
Australia will continue to burn coal and country. Climate change/nah.. pocket change.
Off the ABC: "Many commentators thought this was going to be a big night for Labor but early results are worrying for the party, with Penny Wong acknowledging that Queensland is a problem."
Queensland is a problem? Fact saying that like it's a new thing. Isn't that where Pauline Hanson is from?
Not looking good. Coalition is gaining. 67 to 60 on ABC news. 76 is required to win.
ALP relying on WA (& early vote) has the distinct whiff of clutching at straws.
Will it be a majority or minority Coalition Govt ?
10 mins later … Antony Green confirms that it's now virtually impossible to see how the ALP could win enough seats to form a new Govt.
I wouldn't call it just yet.
Well that sucks.
3 more years I guess.
Now we are going to have the next few weeks listening to talking heads bang on about how to get the votes of reactionary tradies.
This caps off a pretty shit week for me.
Are you calling it?
Yeah. I don't see how Labor can do it now. Only good thing to come out of this is that Shorten and the rest of these empty suits will be cleaned out over the next 3 years and a new generation will come through, who will move away from the Blairite triangulation.
Recriminations are already starting in ALP with some pointing the finger at Shorten. It's funny … just a few days ago I was wondering if the Aussies would end up with an Ed Miliband situation on Election Night … Polls pointing to a Lab victory … but an unpopular leader proving decisive when potential swing-voters to Labor actually entered the booths.
Generally around 10 points behind Scotty in Pref PM Polls … & with big Dissatisfaction numbers.
Whether or not the Shorten factor proved absolutely decisive … it almost certainly played some part in these pretty dismal results.
There does seem to be parallels with UK15.
The parties of the left cannot seem to be able to oust right wing parties that should very well be oustable
The question you shpuld ask yourself is why can't they.
Still too close to call.
Not a prayer of a labor government.
https://thestandard.org.nz/aussie-aussie-aussie/#comment-1618333
I’m told there has been a swing against to Warren what’s has name in the NT which has a Labour safe seat the early 80’s. Antony Green has said that it’s impossible for Labour to form Government, so its going to be either majority or minority government for the Libs/ Nat.
The figures from Qld are very similar to old Johnny Howard’s win back in 2004
Sorry I seem I can’t reply to post here via my IPad for some reason. Is there any fix for this problem?
Great day for Au if it goes to plan for Scomo, Likewise no pesky abbott causing mischief in the background Morrison seems a straight up and likeable guy, Short dodgy in person and in past
Yes I think ScoMo won’t be having a knife throwing contest during this term and I wouldn’t be surprised if we could see a possible a term Lib/Nat Government (yuck)
Labour probably should’ve gone for Albo instead of shifty Shorten?
Press seem to think labour lost the oldies ( franking credits) and Howard’s Tradies on Tax and redistribution
Millsy @ 14.1, it’s more of a dig at Labour for sucking up to the big end of the town and giving the working class seats the flick and you now something is wrong when those usually Labour held seats have gone over to the Lib or Nats or independent. I believe if Albo had been the Labour Leader these working class/ Labour seats would’ve been held or gained
Not sure working class how we traditionally see it really exists any more as a unified voting class or that if it does labour really represents it Labour is more upper middle class Champaign socialists and identity politics, likewise anti Christian that does not help with this class if it still exists
Christians seem to have the habit of denying science and telling people who they and cannot have intimate relationships with and what they can do with their bodies. Labour should be damn well anti Christian.
Sure they can ignore a large voting block across many identities and classes Its a very naive and selected view of Christianity you have Millsy focussing on the fundamentalist who are a very small minority Not all Christian’s have a simplistic view of Christianity as a old white gut sitting on a cloud and firing thunder bolts hating gays and adulterers
Christians will purge evolution from schools and take gays out the back and shoot them given half the chance. Look at what has happened in Alabama when you give the god botherers full control of things. Of course you don't mind women being told what they can and cannot do.
Yes dear, Nz and Au are exactly like Alabama, similarly let’s deals in extremes Maybe not extreme socialism does not have a great past in taking out and shooting any one who does not agree with it, nor in controlling women reproductive decisions
Communist countries such as East Germany and Poland had abortion on demand and full access to birth control. Things that can only happen be imposing restrictions on the god botherers.
Have a look at communist China abortion 1 child policy and practice , 2 levels telling you how many you can have and forced abortion if you break the rules Let’s not even get to how they treated those lucky enough to survive the policy, if they felt a problem Ughurs the most recent recent poor souls who need to fit in to the socialist nirvana
Bewildered @ 23.1, it was one of the causes, but I don’t it was a major issue in my books. It think the biggest issue is around the middle class toffs and the workers in Labour seat turning to the Liberal/ Nats? As old shiffy Shorten didn’t seem to to properly explain Labour’s policy on tax, negative gearing, or dividend share tax etc.
Bewildered @ 24.1 I fully agree with your comment that is more a middle class toffs party now than looking after the workers or underprivileged and really don’t give them a toss nowadays
I don't think you are wrong there. There wasn't really much of a policy difference between the ALP and the Coalition.
Sort of agree EKW but not sure the average Aussie worker is that bad off, compared to kiwi low skilled labour etc they are pretty well looked after. This voting block plus tradies etc are no longer traditional labour or exist as a unified voting class The underprivileged are another matter and don’t tend to vote or a relatively small cohort , similarly the so called working class are not big on massive redistribution of their hard earned income or seeing their jobs destroyed by greens or transformation that hits their hip pocket
Old Barrie Cassidy, said yo can’t have an ambitious manifesto now from opposition almost shades of poor old Foot and old Hewson with Keating which was mean to be a Lib election win.
Millsy@ 26.1 Yes Labour has almost a shade of Blair’s New Labour and they wonder why the workers, the underprivileged have given them the two fingers and bugged off to the blue side or green of politics.
My electorate of Lingiari has had a 6.3% swing to the Country Liberal Party against the sitting Labour member which is normally a safe Labour seat, but this seat covers about 90% of the NT so there is a lot of remote polling votes to come in yet and at the moment the young lady J Price from the CLP is currently ahead. Knowing her mum Bess Price and her daughters background, I will say this seat will change hands for the first time since the 80’s when this seat was formed.
I’m going to call the election as a Lib/ Nat with a majority Government with 77 or 78 seats.
The race for the senate is going to be interesting and on that note folks
I’m off to get my evening med’s and head off to bed.
See you tomorrow morning folks
Heading that way.
Unbelievable result. The right certainly know how to win elections. Hopefully the Australian Labor party can rebuild and win back those voters who have clearly abandoned them.
Bill Shorten has conceded from the looks of things, and stepped down as leader.
It's all over. Only one way to go now, that is up.
or further down.
(sigh)
Congratulations to Scott Morrison. The accidental PM has personally pulled off the totally unexpected. He will likely be a decent PM even if the left won't be thrilled with his govt, we could certainly have hoped for a different outcome.
From the moment ScoMo became PM he's juggled a series of disunity crisis' that would have destroyed many others. You have to have some respect for this; managing through tough times competently is an under-rated skill.
Shorten was terribly unlucky, up against Turnbull he would have likely won. I've met him in person and he's impressive enough. But resigning is his only option and the ALP will go through the process of coming to terms with what has happened.
I've no particular sense of why QLD led the swing against them, but the unpalatable truth is that across the entire country the left has lost what should have been an unloseable election. They should have done better everywhere; not dissimilar to how Clinton lost to Trump, only this time without the populist demagogue to blame. Hopefully the ALP will take ownership of this hard truth with quiet dignity and intellectual integrity.
A successful adoption of the GOP tactic of reducing voter enrollment – a win for John Howard. There is no way Queensland would have gone so well for the Coalition if all the Kiwis there had voted.
There is also the white man thing, security in those of their kind continuing to rule – the abuse of women in the Liberal caucus probably won them more votes than it lost.
And the capacity of the boomers to look after themselves is going to be their generational legacy …
There is no way Queensland would have gone so well for the Coalition if all the Kiwis there had voted.
Well in fact many of us Kiwis in Australia are effectively disenfranchised in both countries. We can't vote in Australia and often we can't in NZ either. The rules require that we either:
https://www.elections.org.nz/voters/get-ready-enrol-and-vote/enrol-and-vote-overseas
I'm not sure what fraction of the 600,000 kiwis would be disqualified by this but it would be significant. Plus there are several extra steps involved in making an online or overseas vote. It's not surprising only a tiny fraction of ex-pats finish up actually casting a vote.
Australia has always had a "citizens only" voting qualification, unlike NZ where permanent residents can vote as well.
So I don't think the "Kiwi factor" would have made any difference in the Australian election (in Queensland). Even before the changes in 2001, most Kiwis did not take out Australian citizenship.
And even if Kiwis could vote, many would vote for the Liberals.
Suck it up sun shine and just accept it not every one agrees with your world view Democracy is the winner on the day Whining and throwing out stock lefty excuses is sad The Sun came up this morning ( just a little brighter) 😊
ALP and Liberals aren't that different, unfortunately. Both owned by the fossil fuel lobby and both powerfully neoliberal.
Woke up to hear if the exciting victory and the labour leader quitting.
Good start to the day so far.
Happy with this result.
Gloating is ugly James. The only purpose for making that comment was to inflict a bit more pain on people who you know will already be disappointed and therefore vulnerable.
It speaks poorly to your character. Mate.
Perhaps you might want to read the thread when Jacinda became PM.
and to say people are venerable because if this is atypical snowflake bullshit.
Labour lost – big deal. You congratulate the winners and hope they do the best job possible.
You can't have it both ways James; you can't deplore the 'thread when Jacinda became PM' and then go and do it yourself.
You congratulate the winners and hope they do the best job possible.
Which is what I did above and precisely not what you did.
you are a little thick this morning.
If you read the thread when Jacinda became pm – it is exactly what I did.
However the gloating from people on here was immense.
My my comment wasn’t gloating – I’m genuinely happy that “my team” won – I think Australia will be a lot better for it.
Sorry I can’t join the pity party some on here are having.
Bullshit.
nooe – it’s true. I really am very happy about the result.
The taliban are well organised.
Immediately blaming others for their own failure. Also speaks poorly to character.
Being despondent that the electorate plainly gives no fucks about the environment and that religious extremists will likely end up running the shop isn't blaming others.
Yes it is. The Libs had gone through a catastrophic leadership knife fight, the ALP was leading all the polls, the tide of opinion on climate change is turning, the issue of illegal immigration has cooled dramatically, even the media wasn't all bad as usual … all the big cards were stacked in their favour. Yet still they couldn't win. They have to look to themselves long and hard as to why.
Blaming 'racist/fanatic fuckheads in the electorate' is the hallmark of losers.
A woman voicing her fears about the influence of religious extremists is a loser. Nice.
Expressing 'fears' without any attempt at justifying them is otherwise known as whining. (And this being a gender non-specific activity.)
Blaming 'racist/fanatic fuckheads in the electorate' is the hallmark of losers.
Going too far there Redlogix.
My initial reaction when hearing the news this morning was:
"well that's it. Trump America has arrived in Australia."
Actually it was always there but now they are out in the open. And that is the darned truth. It's not blaming others.
When the towns and cities start going up in flames and they hop in their little boats and row across the Tasman, we'll turn them away like they turn other desperate folks away now. That'll learn them.
S'alright James and co. I don't really mean it. I don't think. 😳
Actually it was always there but now they are out in the open.
There may well be some element truth to of that, but to imply that every Australian who voted Lib yesterday is a racist fuckhead modeled on Trump's America … is still avoiding the truth. It's the same game the Democrats have played pointing the finger at the 'deplorables' instead of doing the honest work to understand why they're unelectable.
I did not take that meaning from Joe 90's comment because I thought the same albeit in a less orally provocative way.
The "racist fuckheads" voted for the Libs 'in toto' otherwise the result would have been different. Doesn't mean all the Lib voters fall into this category and Joe 90 wasn't suggesting as much.
I haven't checked the figures this morning. but it looked like Queensland was the big spoiler last night and that is not surprising. The state has a reputation for having a very large contingent of "racist fuckheads" going back many decades.
The state has a reputation for having a very large contingent of "racist fuckheads" going back many decades.
Yes while they are more conservative (and this has geographic parallels with the USA) it's really not dramatically different; it's the usual mix just a little more tilted.
This idea that Australia is full of six fingered rednecks is just a Kiwi conceit.
An interesting point that speaks to an underlying problem we have with democracy:
https://www.news.com.au/national/federal-election/federal-election-2019-labor-defeat-is-humiliating/news-story/4cadec03271d70e14280e2846255ced4
It's arguable Ardern only just squeaked into power here in NZ because she didn't have enough time to articulate a detailed vision, and part of her on-going success is that she's preferred the pragmatic over idealistic.
<blockquote>
It's arguable Ardern only just squeaked into power here in NZ because she didn't have enough time to articulate a detailed vision,
</blockquote>
it wasn’t her lack of vision – it was how much she was willing to give Winston to buy power with our money. That squeaked her into power.
Ardern did remarkably better in the election than would have been expected months earlier. If she hadn't pulled Labour up in to the high 30's Winston would have been irrelevant.
What Ardern and Morrison have in common, along with the likes of Trump, was a lack of incumbency, a lack of detailed political track record on which they could be attacked.
What a tragedy for Australia.
what is it with some of you lefties and your hatred of democracy?
The people voted and selected their leader. The majority got what they asked for.
Thats a good result – not a tragedy.
It's great having one proud Australian on here today.
Two.
It is a triumph for Australia. The people have chosen a pro growth path that should sustain for the next two decades. Lip service will be paid to the Paris Agreement, preceeding a withdrawal in 2025.
Have you taken a break from yelling at the pub-goers next door?
We need to talk about the remaining left who are in power in the world.
It's shrinking very, very fast.
Indeed. Only this time the left really has nowhere else to place the blame. Morrison came back from political death, ran an effective political campaign and has won decisively. The left got outplayed … again.
If we want to change the outcomes we can only change ourselves. Whining that the other guys are nasty people, that they cheat, they treat us mean and don't recognise our intellectual and moral superiority, is just that … whining.
Here is my starting point. The conversation needs to understand what politics is really for and how we can play a more effective role in it. Hint, it isn't about 'winning and losing':
The paradox of running an effective political campaign versus effectively running a country. The campaign is the glossy add, full of appealing promises. The term in Government is the product. Voters are the consumers that are lured by ads making the assumption that the better the ad, the better the product. It is much easier to improve the ad than the product; once the sale is done, the money is in. People tend to by brands they know and trust.
And may this excellent trend continue Hard lefties are really deplorable as comments by Ann, SPC and Joe 90 detest I am always surprised why they are surprised when their know all, superiority complex sees their favourites who hold similar world views are crushed at the ballot box
Citing a woman who fears the prospect of religious extremists holding power makes one a deplorable hard leftie. Really?
The conflation by pulling these extreme comments with liberal election win to demean liberal voters Joe is the issue and I suggest you know it Not to mention using this crazy womens comments as your shield is deplorable but a common tactic of the left
The Australian liberals are heading down the same path as the GOP. Goldwater warned about the preachers getting control of the [Republican] party and the past while has shown him to be correct.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/the-religious-minority-seizing-power-in-the-liberal-party-20180601-p4ziyq.html
http://theconversation.com/as-australia-becomes-less-religious-our-parliament-becomes-more-so-80456
Just because they say it Joe it don’t make it so Re US good chance democrats pick up the next election if they can get their loony left rump under control The centre left or right do not like the extremes
It would appear one word decided the Aussie election.
Tax
Yes. The Libs. ran a false smear campaign on Federal Taxes in the same way the Nats ran the campaign on CGT. We've got a name for it – Dirty Politics. Others call is Fake News.
There may have been misrepresentation but there was also 'incentive'….it seems that less tax remains a vote winner, and once 'less tax' is in place it is almost impossible to reverse…a fundamental difficulty for any 'left' party…and fertile ground for libertarians.
https://www.smh.com.au/federal-election-2019/what-the-morrison-government-promised-to-do-next-20190518-p51ore.html
The flip side when a new tax is introduced it is very hard to remove so it’s not really difficult to understand why people from all persuasions don’t like more tax If labour have just worked this out they really do live in La la land
On the contrary, removing taxes if the easiest thing in the political realm, as you yourself note tax is broadly unpopular, the difficulty is the likely necessity to remove services to compensate for the lost revenue…that appears to be more politicly palatable, especially if those services are not likely to be accessed by your constituency
Getting rid of tax burden and replacing it with another tax is not getting rid of tax burden overall but moving the deck chairs Proposing new taxes and increasing overall tax burden and believing that will not be popular is a “know shit Sherlock moment” If labour Have just realised this more fool them
you really do seem to be struggling with this…..
"Getting rid of tax burden and replacing it with another tax is not getting rid of tax burden overall but moving the deck chairs Proposing new taxes and increasing overall tax burden and believing that will not be popular"
are you sure you wouldnt like to edit that?
Others call it Politics, not that labour is not prone to a healthy amount of bs and smearing If you can’t handle the heat get out of the kitchen This was labour’s election to lose, they did in a grandiose way
Pat @42. Blaming National for this governments inability to implement a CGT is a disgrace, Labour in particular have no one to blame but themselves. Ardern and co threw in the towel before they even got off the stool. They let National control the narrative because they refused to go in and fight for what's right. That's on us, accept it.
An honest man that mickeyboyle Taking ownership where ownership lies
Pardon?….you would appear somewhat confused
How so is MickeyB confuse there Pat, Please enlighten, facts please
Must be contagious….read my post @42 and it should be abundantly clear.
will do
see post 42.111
really Pat your comment at 42 is a know shit Sherlock moment My comments on MickeyB stands
Meh…you would appear to be a lost argument looking for somewhere to land…and your comment to Mickey Boyle is of no relevance to my response to his confusion
Come on, Pat! We all know that Jacinda Ardern campaigned hard for CGT in Oz. She even sent over Sir Michael but National got wind of it and sent Simon to neutralise Sir Mike. It paid off, didn’t it? The Mad Monk is gone. This is the sole reason why JC will be the next leader of National. Please keep up!
Your ducking for cover Pat Mickey highlighted as with Ardern and Nz labour needed to own Cgt shambles LABOUR Au need to own this election loss , you seem to be arguing that they where blindsided by the people response to their tax policy and the libs exploiting this As Mickey indicates they need to own this if they where to dumb to understand that this is what they would be judged and attacked on, well as I said more full then In reality I think it was way more than tax
lol…a lot of projection going on there B.
There is no need to duck for cover as I have made a brief judgement on that which swung the Aussie election, is it the sole reason?undoubtably not but I suggest it is a key reason for although they lost badly in Queensland (apparently) their support in the largest states failed to counter that…two states with falling property values I may add.
As to ownership i made no judgement though that should be obvious in a democracy
Apologies that was my fault for the confusion. I was actually referring to Pat's comment at 42.1.1. And Arderns and Labours inability to even put up an ounce of fight for a policy they say they believe in. Less tax is currently only a vote winner because our side refuses to convey what effects a CGT etc would have on the average kiwi. We seem reluctant to fight for our policies, which leads to plenty of poll watching without much real action. Year of delivery, transformational, it all means nothing if you are not prepared to state your case and fight for it. Sorry but for some reason when I press reply I cannot type anything in the comment box?
Again Im not sure why you are taking umbrage as my comment at 42.1.1 makes no reference to CGT, National, Ardern or even NZ…it is a general observation about the implications of tax policy on parties with a public ownership model, or 'the left".
This is what you wrote, "it seems that less tax remains a vote winner, and once 'less tax' is in place it is almost impossible to reverse". That's all I'm arguing against. Less tax is only currently a vote winner because those on our side who are currently in power and whom believe in paying more to support our vulnerable or deliver better social policies, refuse to fight and counter the false narrative that we allow our opponents to foster. I have no doubt that Ardern and co could've got a CGT across the line, my point is that they didnt even try. Less tax is only a vote winner because voters do not see how an alternative would benefit themselves and society.
now compare your statement here @ 44.1 with this
"Blaming National for this governments inability to implement a CGT is a disgrace, Labour in particular have no one to blame but themselves. Ardern and co threw in the towel before they even got off the stool. They let National control the narrative because they refused to go in and fight for what's right. That's on us, accept it."
and wheres the blame and lack of acceptance?….it certainly isnt in 42 or 42.1
You must have been an opening batsman Pat or a boxer. Your weaving and bobbing is impressive 😀
One too many drinks last night, me thinks. Pat was as clear as succinct @ 42.