Bob McCoskrie confuses correlation with causation

Written By: - Date published: 9:34 am, February 12th, 2016 - 49 comments
Categories: poverty, the praiseworthy and the pitiful, you couldn't make this shit up - Tags:

Pro smacking protest huh-7

Yesterday I did something that I almost immediately regretted.  I read Bob McCoskrie’s Family First’s report setting out how the anti smacking legislation was the cause of all that is wrong with Aotearoa New Zealand’s children.

In the report he lays out a series of statistics which have deteriorated since 2007.  Statistics involving such things as:

  1. A six fold increase in reports to CYF since 2001.
  2. Sexual offences have increased by 43% since the law was changed.
  3. Overall the rate of neglect and ill-treatment of children has increased since the law was changed.
  4. Emotional and behavioural problems including depression, anxiety disorder, and ADHD have increased by 132% since the law was changed.

My initial response while reading the report was to say that correlation is not causation.  Again and again and again.

My second response was that the report completely ignores increasing levels of poverty and the effects.  If you want to find the cause of worsening statistics for children then poverty and not the very occasional prosecution for assault.

My third response was “holy shifting goal posts”.  When was it promised that changing this law would resolve child misery and stop sexual offending?

The change to the law has had very limited effect on prosecution rates.  The Police’s two year report after the law was enacted determined that over that time there was one prosecution for smacking and 13 for minor acts of physical discipline and warnings given in a further 201 cases.  The smacking prosecution was withdrawn by leave.  The other prosecutions were dealt with by bottom of the range sanctions including diversion, discharge without conviction, being convicted and discharged and being ordered to come up for sentence if called upon.  The claim that innocent parents would be behind bars immediately after the law was passed did not occur.

The report has however had cheerleaders on the right spike up.  Paul Henry says that the report contains “rock solid statistics”.  He must have rocks in his head.  And Larry Williams decries the failure of the law change to solve child abuse then rants about “feral parents” and “mongrels”.  Don’t hold back Larry.

One of McCoskrie complaints is how the legislation is so difficult to understand.  He does have a point.  THE FAULT IS WOTH THE POLITICIANS WHO MADE A PIGS EAR OF THE DRAFTING AND DECIDED TO PUT ALL SORTS OF EXCEPTIONS INTO IT.  The original bill was much more streamlined and easy to understand.

Bob McCoskrie would have us believe that the law change is responsible for a significant increase in the plight of children and the undermining of families.  He has presented some statistics but completely ignores societal trends and blames change on a law change that had limited practical effect and no apparent causal relationship.  And he completely ignores the limited practical effect the law change has had.

If this was a research paper presented as part of coursework I suspect it would receive a grading of F.

 

49 comments on “Bob McCoskrie confuses correlation with causation ”

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  1. te reo putake 1
    12 February 2016 at 10:05 am

    Family Fist’s McCroskie seems to have confused higher reporting rates with an increase in crime. One of the positives of no longer being able to beat our children is that we have all been empowered to intervene.

    Logically, reports to CYF’s, complaints to police etc. had to increase when a societal barrier around turning a blind eye to family violence was removed. Kiwis are less afraid to speak up about child and spousal abuse these days, which is wonderful.

    • mickysavage 1.1
      12 February 2016 at 10:29 am

      Agreed. I did not want to get into the further subtleties of how increasing awareness can result in increasing rates of reporting.

  2. Lanthanide 2
    12 February 2016 at 10:39 am

    “THE FAULT IS WOTH THE POLITICIANS WHO MADE A PIGS EAR OF THE DRAFTING AND DECIDED TO PUT ALL SORTS OF EXCEPTIONS INTO IT. ”

    Really? I thought they just removed the ‘reasonable force’ defense. How did they put exceptions into it?

    • mickysavage 2.1
      12 February 2016 at 11:02 am

      Originally section 59 was going to be repealed. The final version contained this text:

      (1)Every parent of a child and every person in the place of a parent of the child is justified in using force if the force used is reasonable in the circumstances and is for the purpose of—
      “(a)preventing or minimising harm to the child or another person; or
      “(b)preventing the child from engaging or continuing to engage in conduct that amounts to a criminal offence; or
      “(c)preventing the child from engaging or continuing to engage in offensive or disruptive behaviour; or
      “(d)performing the normal daily tasks that are incidental to good care and parenting.
      “(2)Nothing in subsection (1) or in any rule of common law justifies the use of force for the purpose of correction.
      “(3)Subsection (2) prevails over subsection (1).
      “(4)To avoid doubt, it is affirmed that the Police have the discretion not to prosecute complaints against a parent of a child or person in the place of a parent of a child in relation to an offence involving the use of force against a child, where the offence is considered to be so inconsequential that there is no public interest in proceeding with a prosecution.”

      A repeal would have been much cleaner. The public interest filter would still be there and prevent minor incidents from being prosecuted.

      • Lanthanide 2.1.1
        12 February 2016 at 12:20 pm

        Thanks.

        I think out of that, the only part that was really ‘necessary’ was subsection 4.

        • weizguy 2.1.1.1
          12 February 2016 at 1:41 pm

          ss4 wasn’t necessary either. It’s an avoidance of doubt provision. The Police always had the ability to do so and regularly exercise it.

          • Lanthanide 2.1.1.1.1
            12 February 2016 at 2:50 pm

            My point is that any person concerned about the change, should be happy with only SS4 being included, because it covers the other SS already.

            Yes, the police already have the power and routinely use it, but the point is to assuage people that the sky isn’t going to fall in.

            • weizguy 2.1.1.1.1.1
              12 February 2016 at 5:25 pm

              Fair, but it would be nice if people like McCoskrie didn’t lie, which would remove the need for redundant avoidance of doubt provisions.

  3. savenz 3
    12 February 2016 at 10:48 am

    Disgusting. Every pycho, religoid nut and Paul Henry supporter will be on this one, lowering the tone even further in MSM.

    Boo to Bob McCrosky and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Natz were behind it as a distraction technique.

    What more favourite topic of the rabid right that child abuse and how abusing children cures it!!

    Keeps us off thinking about their billion dollars of debt piling up and TPPA signed in a Casino.

    • Macro 3.1
      12 February 2016 at 11:11 am

      I’m sad to say that I now live in a very sick country. Not because we enacted a necessary piece of legislation to to improve the safety of our children, but because we now have a government bereft of any humanity. A government that exists purely for the benefit of business over the benefit of people. The effect of this laissez-faire, callous approach to governance, is that more and more people are left to fall through the ever widening crevices in society. And of course, with little power of their own – children are the first to suffer.

      • Detrie 3.1.1
        12 February 2016 at 11:46 am

        Where goes the US (and other majors) go, there follows wee NZ and banker John Key. We don’t lead, we follow. Govt is there only to help business. Voters and non-voters like our children, largely ignored. All talk, no action.

    • lurgee 3.2
      15 February 2016 at 6:53 am

      Disgusting. Every pycho, religoid nut and Paul Henry supporter will be on this one, lowering the tone even further in MSM.

      Don’t worry, we can chuck a toy knob at a cabinet minister, that’ll help raise it.

  4. Sacha 4
    12 February 2016 at 11:24 am

    These twisted guys just don’t want to stop thrashing their kids, do they.

    • Wensleydale 4.1
      13 February 2016 at 8:36 am

      “My old man would beat me senseless with a table leg wrapped in barbed wire, and it never did me any harm! It taught me respect… and quite a lot about being a sado-masochist and a bully. So there.”

      In other news, I liked Bob McCroskie more when all he did was piss and moan about Hell Pizza’s billboards being “offensive and inappropriate”. I think it just encouraged Hell to up the ante every time.

  5. Jay 5
    12 February 2016 at 11:27 am

    Some kids, particularly boys, require a firm hand. Most men reading this should agree that when young they got a clip around the ear, and that this made them wake their ideas up. While the statute still allows physical force most parents don’t realise this, and I know of instances where extreme bad behaviour goes unpunished because parents fear prosecution. I’m talking about boys attacking their parents, destroying property etc. Consequently the first time these kids might receive physical discipline is in prison. From another prisoner.

    I’m not suprised there hasn’t been a significant increase in prosecutions for minor uses of force, that’s because use of force across the board will be far less now than it was ten years ago. In my opinion that’s not a good thing though. I know of an instance where step-dad belted his step-son for stealing money. Police were called, and step-dad was arrested for a minor assault. Step-son was later kicked out due to extreme bad behaviour, and is now a car-thief and burglar. A firm hand was possibly our best chance of turning him around, instead he’s now headed for prison or possibly a fatal car-crash in a pursuit, and all because we don’t want to “hurt” him.

    Conversely, the true abusers of children have always ignored the law anyway. It was always against the law to use excessive force. That’s why this amendment has in my opinion had zero effect on child abuse figures, and has created a generation of ill-disciplined youngsters who threaten to call police even if parents are using force to defend themselves.

    • Sacha 5.1
      12 February 2016 at 11:33 am

      “It was always against the law to use excessive force. ”

      Yet parents successfully used this defence in court to get away with thrashing their children with horse whips, piping and chunks of 4×2 timber. Glad it’s gone.

    • Molly 5.2
      12 February 2016 at 12:10 pm

      IIRC there was a case from the Coromandel where the caregiver tied the child to a stake with barbed wire, poured petrol on him and threatened to set him alight.

      The accused was found “Not guilty”.

      Along with a stepfather who used his belt to administer punishment to a six year old child.

      ” Consequently the first time these kids might receive physical discipline is in prison. From another prisoner.”

      There is no doubt that there are children who require a higher level of care, and much more time than is available in most households and schools. But the administration of physical punishment doesn’t address those issues and help that child to overcome them, it just reinforces for a time that those who have the care of that child are in control and by inference, have dealt with the problem.

      But the problems still exist, and will manifest in varying ways when they reach adulthood. Many of those ways will be self-destructive, and harmful to society.

      In the end, it is harmful to society to think that an adult using physical force as a “correction” tool against a child, is the most effective and long-term solution available. It had to be off the table, to create space for best practice.

    • marty mars 5.3
      12 February 2016 at 12:54 pm

      “Some kids, particularly boys, require a firm hand.”

      BULLSHIT

      You don’t know what you are talking about.

    • Korero Pono 5.4
      12 February 2016 at 2:14 pm

      @ Jay, nothing like a little bit of violence to keep smaller weaker humans in line, is there? If an adult hit an adult, is that okay? The law says it isn’t. Jay if you were out of line, misbehaving, would it be okay to hit you? When women get bashed is that okay? Even if they have misbehaved?

    • The Fairy Godmother 5.5
      12 February 2016 at 3:42 pm

      One of the things physical punishment does is desensitize people to violence. This leads to people thinking there is nothing wrong with hitting children battoning protesters and a range of animal cruelty such as rodeos. A hard thing to deal with but I think explains a lot that is wrong with our country. Incidentally as an Ece teacher I look after children without hitting them and I have more than one child in my care. I find that relationships respect and explaining why the child should do something or not do it goes a long way.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 5.6
      13 February 2016 at 7:41 am

      Jay’s violent fantasies are quite revealing.

  6. Lindsey 6
    12 February 2016 at 12:18 pm

    Glad to see the repeal of S59. I was a juror once on a case against a chap who liked to handcuff young boy’s wrists to their ankles and trash them with a bamboo cane. He obtained access to these children by befriending solo mothers through a religious youth organisation. At his trial he tried to run the S59 defence that he was in loco parentis and that this was reasonable force and used to correct these naughty boys. I know a pervert when I see one, but some of the jury were a bit confused with the S59 matters. Fortunately wiser heads prevailed and he was convicted.

  7. Clean Green 7
    12 February 2016 at 1:06 pm

    McCoskrie never said the ‘anti-smacking’ legislation was “the cause of all that is wrong with Aotearoa New Zealand’s children.” What he claims is that the legislation has not achieved what it’s proponents claimed it would, which was to reduce child abuse. He’s correct.

    • mickysavage 7.1
      12 February 2016 at 1:21 pm

      Who said the Act would solve child abuse? How do you know child abuse levels would be even worse if the changes had not been made? And why did McCoskrie link increases of negative indicators with the Act?

      • Gosman 7.1.1
        12 February 2016 at 1:41 pm

        Since you believe that increased levels of poverty is more likely to be the cause how about you provide evidence showing how this has moved since the Act was changed.

    • Sacha 7.2
      12 February 2016 at 1:22 pm

      How does he determine what the rate of abuse would be now if the law had not been changed?

    • dv 7.3
      12 February 2016 at 1:28 pm

      And I thought the repeal was to remove the reasonable punishment defence for beating a kid with a 4×2.

    • framu 7.4
      12 February 2016 at 2:24 pm

      “What he claims is that the legislation has not achieved what it’s proponents claimed it would, which was to reduce child abuse.”

      bollocks – repealing s59 is only about repealing s59 – nothing else

      family fist simply dont have a clue what they are on about, and i suspect you dont either

    • millsy 7.5
      12 February 2016 at 7:00 pm

      No, this law was to stop parents tying their children up to a clothes line and belting with with a vaccum cleaner hose before stuffing hot sauce down their mouth and then saying to the judge that it was ‘reasonable force’.

      Stopping child abuse would mean facing up to the overly tolerant attitude we have to violence in this country, and no one I see is overly keen on doing such a thing.

  8. riffer 8
    12 February 2016 at 1:11 pm

    Yet another example of confirmation bias. Gosh we’re seeing this a lot. McCroskie’s report needs to be added to this site:

    http://twentytwowords.com/funny-graphs-show-correlation-between-completely-unrelated-stats-9-pictures/

  9. Gosman 9
    12 February 2016 at 1:38 pm

    Except poverty rates since the law change have hardly moved so your hypothesis looks to be as flawed as McCroskie’s if not more so.

    • Macro 9.1
      12 February 2016 at 1:39 pm

      You would never understand Gossy – so its not worth trying to explain.

      • Gosman 9.1.1
        12 February 2016 at 2:13 pm

        This is all about corelation versus causation and how statistics can be misused to try and make a particular value laden point. I understand that very well.

        How about someone provides the statistics for the counter argument that the increased negative indicators mentioned by Mr McCroskie are the result of increased levels of poverty?

        • McFlock 9.1.1.1
          12 February 2016 at 3:40 pm

          see, the thing is that most people know that you are perfectly capable of looking up the statistics if you felt you could bullshit them into supporting your position.

          For example, increased poverty: up to 60,000 more kids in “relative” poverty since 2007.

          Hospitalisations from assault, neglect or maltreatment: too early to tell, but maybe decreasing since 2007.

          Relationship between child assault, neglect or maltreatment and socioeconomic deprivation: children in the most deprived quintile are 6-12 times more likely to be sent to hospital with diagnosed assault/neglect/maltreatment than children in the most well-off quintile. The differences within ethnicity and gender are much less pronounced.

          McCroskie’s a cock and so are you.

          • Gosman 9.1.1.1.1
            13 February 2016 at 7:28 am

            That first link you posted supports my point. Poverty rates have hardly moved since 2005. If you look at that graph I believe they have fluctuated from 28 down to about 25 and then up to around 30, A 2 point change over 10 years is not indicative of a massive increase and it certainly doesn’t explain the rise in the statistics that McCroskie has highlighted.

            • Korero Pono 9.1.1.1.1.1
              13 February 2016 at 8:16 am

              @ Gosman

              Your reliance on the assumptions in the McCroskie article borders on stupidity.

              An increase in reports since 2001 are attributed to a number of factors – public health campaigns, expectation on professionals working with children and better awareness of what abuse is. If anything the repeal of S59 helped bring abuse out of the closet. Given that substantiated incidents of abuse and neglect increased, means that the higher reporting has been effective in interventions for children who would otherwise have been ignored.

              The repeal of S59 means that parents/abusers can no longer use it to justify abuse (as has occurred in the past).

              “Former Green Party MP Sue Bradford, the architect of the anti-smacking law, dismissed the Family First report as “totally ridiculous and illogical” for suggesting the law change should have solved child abuse.

              “Amending a law to protect children from physical violence was never going to solve the problem of child violence … just as any law cannot solve a problem – a law against murder for example doesn’t stop people from committing murder.”

              Bradford said the law change had provided children with legal protection against “the excesses of physical discipline”, and had helped to shift the culture of violence towards children since it was passed.

              “The rates of reporting going up, that is one result of the law change, people are more conscious of reporting violence against children – that’s a good thing, not a bad thing, and yet they [Family First] use that as an example of the law not working.”

              The report itself showed that there had been a fall in some child abuse indicators in the last few years, while data from police after the law was passed showed they had been careful with their prosecutions.

              “I’ve had so much feedback from people in various forums … in the past they almost felt obligated to physically discipline their children, but that’s no longer the case,” Bradford said.”

              http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/76773287/antismacking-law-has-failed-to-reduce-child-abuse-family-first-report

              • Macro …
                13 February 2016 at 8:42 am

                Your reliance on the assumptions in the McCroskie article borders on stupidity.

                Which is why I seldom respond to the twit. You only get idiocy back.

            • McFlock 9.1.1.1.1.2
              13 February 2016 at 2:36 pm

              ok, to avoid getting into a debate about poverty levels that distracts from the point of the post, I will concede every point you made.

              But here’s the thing: even if everything you said were correct, even if we ignore the fact that you don’t know the difference between a graph and a table, even if we ignore that your 2005 point isn’t even displayed on either the graph or the table, even if we ignore all the datapoints between “2005” and 2014 when assessing changes made over that time (remember the GFC? It was key’s excuse for afew years after “Labour left us with no net debt” wore thin), and especially if we ignore the fact that a change of only a couple of percentage points affects tens of thousands of children… the s59 amendment was passed in 2007, not your 2005 starting point.

              McCroskie doesn’t understand the difference between correlation and causation, but Gosman doesn’t understand the meaning of “correlation”. Especially when it comes to non-linear relationships in a multivariate environment.

  10. Rosemary McDonald 10
    12 February 2016 at 3:01 pm

    For anyone interested in a bit of background to the s59 Bill, the debate, and the lost opportunity to address the real factors behind NZ rates of child abuse….

    http://researchcommons.waikato.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10289/4931/thesis.pdf?sequence=3

  11. millsy 11
    12 February 2016 at 6:55 pm

    I dont think I am being unreasonable to suggest that McCroskie’s (and others) definition of ‘smacking’ would encompass methods that would not be out of place in Guantanamo Bay.

  12. millsy 12
    12 February 2016 at 7:13 pm

    Probably unrelated, but McCroskie has refused to deny that he wants homosexuality recriminalised in numerous email conversations I have had with him.

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    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Thursday, July 25, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day were:The Abuse in Care Royal Commission of Inquiry published its final report yesterday.PM Christopher Luxon and The Minister responsible for ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • A tougher line on “proactive release”?

    The Official Information Act has always been a battle between requesters seeking information, and governments seeking to control it. Information is power, so Ministers and government agencies want to manage what is released and when, for their own convenience, and legality and democracy be damned. Their most recent tactic for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • 'Let's build a motorway costing $100 million per km, before emissions costs'

    TL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:Transport and Energy Minister Simeon Brown is accelerating plans to spend at least $10 billion through Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) to extend State Highway One as a four-lane ‘Expressway’ from Warkworth to Whangarei ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Lester's Prescription – Positive Bleeding.

    I live my life (woo-ooh-ooh)With no control in my destinyYea-yeah, yea-yeah (woo-ooh-ooh)I can bleed when I want to bleedSo come on, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)You can bleed when you want to bleedYea-yeah, come on (woo-ooh-ooh)Everybody bleed when they want to bleedCome on and bleedGovernments face tough challenges. Selling unpopular decisions to ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Casey Costello gaslights Labour in the House

    Please note:To skip directly to the- parliamentary footage in the video, scroll to 1:21 To skip to audio please click on the headphone icon on the left hand side of the screenThis video / audio section is under development. ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    3 days ago
  • Why is the Texas grid in such bad shape?

    This is a re-post from the Climate Brink by Andrew Dessler Headline from 2021 The Texas grid, run by ERCOT, has had a rough few years. In 2021, winter storm Uri blacked out much of the state for several days. About a week ago, Hurricane Beryl knocked out ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on a textbook case of spending waste by the Luxon government

    Given the crackdown on wasteful government spending, it behooves me to point to a high profile example of spending by the Luxon government that looks like a big, fat waste of time and money. I’m talking about the deployment of NZDF personnel to support the US-led coalition in the Red ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:40 am on Wednesday, July 24 are:Deep Dive: Chipping away at the housing crisis, including my comments RNZ/Newsroom’s The DetailNews: Government softens on asset sales, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • LXR Takaanini

    As I reported about the city centre, Auckland’s rail network is also going through a difficult and disruptive period which is rapidly approaching a culmination, this will result in a significant upgrade to the whole network. Hallelujah. Also like the city centre this is an upgrade predicated on the City ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    3 days ago
  • Four kilograms of pain

    Today, a 4 kilogram report will be delivered to Parliament. We know this is what the report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care weighs, because our Prime Minister told us so.Some reporter had blindsided him by asking a question about something done by ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Wednesday, July 24

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Wednesday, July 24, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Beehive: Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced plans to use PPPs to fund, build and run a four-lane expressway between Auckland ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Luxon gets caught out

    NewstalkZB host Mike Hosking, who can usually be relied on to give Prime Minister Christopher Luxon an easy run, did not do so yesterday when he interviewed him about the HealthNZ deficit. Luxon is trying to use a deficit reported last year by HealthNZ as yet another example of the ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • A worrying sign

    Back in January a StatsNZ employee gave a speech at Rātana on behalf of tangata whenua in which he insulted and criticised the government. The speech clearly violated the principle of a neutral public service, and StatsNZ started an investigation. Part of that was getting an external consultant to examine ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Are we fine with 47.9% home-ownership by 2048?

    Renting for life: Shared ownership initiatives are unlikely to slow the slide in home ownership by much. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy today are:A Deloitte report for Westpac has projected Aotearoa’s home-ownership rate will ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Let's Win This

    You're broken down and tiredOf living life on a merry go roundAnd you can't find the fighterBut I see it in you so we gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsWe gonna walk it outAnd move mountainsAnd I'll rise upI'll rise like the dayI'll rise upI'll rise unafraidI'll rise upAnd I'll ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • Waimahara: The Singing Spirit of Water

    There’s been a change in Myers Park. Down the steps from St. Kevin’s Arcade, past the grassy slopes, the children’s playground, the benches and that goat statue, there has been a transformation. The underpass for Mayoral Drive has gone from a barren, grey, concrete tunnel, to a place that thrums ...
    Greater AucklandBy Connor Sharp
    4 days ago
  • A major milestone: Global climate pollution may have just peaked

    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Global society may have finally slammed on the brakes for climate-warming pollution released by human fossil fuel combustion. According to the Carbon Monitor Project, the total global climate pollution released between February and May 2024 declined slightly from the amount released during the same ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Tuesday, July 23 are:Deep Dive: Penlink: where tolling rhetoric meets reality BusinessDesk-$$$’s Oliver LewisScoop: Te Pūkenga plans for regional polytechs leak out ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Tuesday, July 23

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Tuesday, July 23, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:Health: Shane Reti announced the Board of Te Whatu Ora- Health New Zealand was being replaced with Commissioner Lester Levy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • HealthNZ and Luxon at cross purposes over budget blowout

    Health NZ warned the Government at the end of March that it was running over Budget. But the reasons it gave were very different to those offered by the Prime Minister yesterday. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon blamed the “botched merger” of the 20 District Health Boards (DHBs) to create Health ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • 2500-3000 more healthcare staff expected to be fired, as Shane Reti blames Labour for a budget defic...

    Long ReadKey Summary: Although National increased the health budget by $1.4 billion in May, they used an old funding model to project health system costs, and never bothered to update their pre-election numbers. They were told during the Health Select Committees earlier in the year their budget amount was deficient, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    4 days ago
  • Might Kamala Harris be about to get a 'stardust' moment like Jacinda Ardern?

    As a momentous, historic weekend in US politics unfolded, analysts and commentators grasped for precedents and comparisons to help explain the significance and power of the choice Joe Biden had made. The 46th president had swept the Democratic party’s primaries but just over 100 days from the election had chosen ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago
  • Solutions Interview: Steven Hail on MMT & ecological economics

    TL;DR: I’m casting around for new ideas and ways of thinking about Aotearoa’s political economy to find a few solutions to our cascading and self-reinforcing housing, poverty and climate crises.Associate Professor runs an online masters degree in the economics of sustainability at Torrens University in Australia and is organising ...
    The KakaBy Steven Hail
    5 days ago
  • Reported back

    The Finance and Expenditure Committee has reported back on National's Local Government (Water Services Preliminary Arrangements) Bill. The bill sets up water for privatisation, and was introduced under urgency, then rammed through select committee with no time even for local councils to make a proper submission. Naturally, national's select committee ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Vandrad the Viking, Christopher Coombes, and Literary Archaeology

    Some years ago, I bought a book at Dunedin’s Regent Booksale for $1.50. As one does. Vandrad the Viking (1898), by J. Storer Clouston, is an obscure book these days – I cannot find a proper online review – but soon it was sitting on my shelf, gathering dust alongside ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell On The Biden Withdrawal

    History is not on the side of the centre-left, when Democratic presidents fall behind in the polls and choose not to run for re-election. On both previous occasions in the past 75 years (Harry Truman in 1952, Lyndon Johnson in 1968) the Democrats proceeded to then lose the White House ...
    WerewolfBy lyndon
    5 days ago
  • Joe Biden's withdrawal puts the spotlight back on Kamala and the USA's complicated relatio...

    This is a free articleCoverageThis morning, US President Joe Biden announced his withdrawal from the Presidential race. And that is genuinely newsworthy. Thanks for your service, President Biden, and all the best to you and yours.However, the media in New Zealand, particularly the 1News nightly bulletin, has been breathlessly covering ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    5 days ago
  • Why we have to challenge our national fiscal assumptions

    A homeless person’s camp beside a blocked-off slipped damage walkway in Freeman’s Bay: we are chasing our tail on our worsening and inter-related housing, poverty and climate crises. Photo: Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Existential Crisis and Damaged Brains

    What has happened to it all?Crazy, some'd sayWhere is the life that I recognise?(Gone away)But I won't cry for yesterdayThere's an ordinary worldSomehow I have to findAnd as I try to make my wayTo the ordinary worldYesterday morning began as many others - what to write about today? I began ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • A speed limit is not a target, and yet…

    This is a guest post from longtime supporter Mr Plod, whose previous contributions include a proposal that Hamilton become New Zealand’s capital city, and that we should switch which side of the road we drive on. A recent Newsroom article, “Back to school for the Govt’s new speed limit policy“, ...
    Greater AucklandBy Guest Post
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 7:00 am on Monday, July 22 are:Today’s Must Read: Father and son live in a tent, and have done for four years, in a million ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Monday, July 22

    TL;DR: As of 7:00 am on Monday, July 22, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:US President Joe Biden announced via X this morning he would not stand for a second term.Multinational professional services firm ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29

    A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, July 14, 2024 thru Sat, July 20, 2024. Story of the week As reflected by preponderance of coverage, our Story of the Week is Project 2025. Until now traveling ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago
  • I'd like to share what I did this weekend

    This weekend, a friend pointed out someone who said they’d like to read my posts, but didn’t want to pay. And my first reaction was sympathy.I’ve already told folks that if they can’t comfortably subscribe, and would like to read, I’d be happy to offer free subscriptions. I don’t want ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • For the children – Why mere sentiment can be a misleading force in our lives, and lead to unex...

    National: The Party of ‘Law and Order’ IntroductionThis weekend, the Government formally kicked off one of their flagship policy programs: a military style boot camp that New Zealand has experimented with over the past 50 years. Cartoon credit: Guy BodyIt’s very popular with the National Party’s Law and Order image, ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    6 days ago
  • A friend in uncertain times

    Day one of the solo leg of my long journey home begins with my favourite sound: footfalls in an empty street. 5.00 am and it’s already light and already too warm, almost.If I can make the train that leaves Budapest later this hour I could be in Belgrade by nightfall; ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • The Chaotic World of Male Diet Influencers

    Hi,We’ll get to the horrific world of male diet influencers (AKA Beefy Boys) shortly, but first you will be glad to know that since I sent out the Webworm explaining why the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was not a false flag operation, I’ve heard from a load of people ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    6 days ago
  • It's Starting To Look A Lot Like… Y2K

    Do you remember Y2K, the threat that hung over humanity in the closing days of the twentieth century? Horror scenarios of planes falling from the sky, electronic payments failing and ATMs refusing to dispense cash. As for your VCR following instructions and recording your favourite show - forget about it.All ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Bernard’s Saturday Soliloquy for the week to July 20

    Climate Change Minister Simon Watts being questioned by The Kākā’s Bernard Hickey.TL;DR: My top six things to note around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the week to July 20 were:1. A strategy that fails Zero Carbon Act & Paris targetsThe National-ACT-NZ First Coalition Government finally unveiled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Pharmac Director, Climate Change Commissioner, Health NZ Directors – The latest to quit this m...

    Summary:As New Zealand loses at least 12 leaders in the public service space of health, climate, and pharmaceuticals, this month alone, directly in response to the Government’s policies and budget choices, what lies ahead may be darker than it appears. Tui examines some of those departures and draws a long ...
    Mountain TuiBy Mountain Tui
    1 week ago
  • Flooding Housing Policy

    The Minister of Housing’s ambition is to reduce markedly the ratio of house prices to household incomes. If his strategy works it would transform the housing market, dramatically changing the prospects of housing as an investment.Leaving aside the Minister’s metaphor of ‘flooding the market’ I do not see how the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago
  • A Voyage Among the Vandals: Accepted (Again!)

    As previously noted, my historical fantasy piece, set in the fifth-century Mediterranean, was accepted for a Pirate Horror anthology, only for the anthology to later fall through. But in a good bit of news, it turned out that the story could indeed be re-marketed as sword and sorcery. As of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā's Chorus for Friday, July 19

    An employee of tobacco company Philip Morris International demonstrates a heated tobacco device. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The top six things I’ve noted around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy on Friday, July 19 are:At a time when the Coalition Government is cutting spending on health, infrastructure, education, housing ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Pick 'n' Mix for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: My pick of the top six links elsewhere around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day or so to 8:30 am on Friday, July 19 are:Scoop: NZ First Minister Casey Costello orders 50% cut to excise tax on heated tobacco products. The minister has ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Roundup 19-July-2024

    Kia ora, it’s time for another Friday roundup, in which we pull together some of the links and stories that caught our eye this week. Feel free to add more in the comments! Our header image this week shows a foggy day in Auckland town, captured by Patrick Reynolds. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    1 week ago
  • Weekly Climate Wrap: A market-led plan for failure

    TL;DR : Here’s the top six items climate news for Aotearoa this week, as selected by Bernard Hickey and The Kākā’s climate correspondent Cathrine Dyer. A discussion recorded yesterday is in the video above and the audio of that sent onto the podcast feed.The Government released its draft Emissions Reduction ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Tobacco First

    Save some money, get rich and old, bring it back to Tobacco Road.Bring that dynamite and a crane, blow it up, start all over again.Roll up. Roll up. Or tailor made, if you prefer...Whether you’re selling ciggies, digging for gold, catching dolphins in your nets, or encouraging folks to flutter ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • Trump’s Adopted Son.

    Waiting In The Wings: For truly, if Trump is America’s un-assassinated Caesar, then J.D. Vance is America’s Octavian, the Republic’s youthful undertaker – and its first Emperor.DONALD TRUMP’S SELECTION of James D. Vance as his running-mate bodes ill for the American republic. A fervent supporter of Viktor Orban, the “illiberal” prime ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago
  • The Kākā’s Journal of Record for Friday, July 19

    TL;DR: As of 6:00 am on Friday, July 19, the top six announcements, speeches, reports and research around housing, climate and poverty in Aotearoa’s political economy in the last day are:The PSA announced the Employment Relations Authority (ERA) had ruled in the PSA’s favour in its case against the Ministry ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago

  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Canada, Australia and New Zealand

    Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on the need for an urgent ceasefire in Gaza and the risk of expanded conflict between Hizballah and Israel. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic. The human suffering is unacceptable. It cannot continue.  We remain unequivocal in our condemnation of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • AG reminds institutions of legal obligations

    Attorney-General Judith Collins today reminded all State and faith-based institutions of their legal obligation to preserve records relevant to the safety and wellbeing of those in its care. “The Abuse in Care Inquiry’s report has found cases where records of the most vulnerable people in State and faith‑based institutions were ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    20 hours ago
  • More young people learning about digital safety

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government’s online safety website for children and young people has reached one million page views.  “It is great to see so many young people and their families accessing the site Keep It Real Online to learn how to stay safe online, and manage ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Speech to the Conference for General Practice 2024

    Tēnā tātou katoa,  Ngā mihi te rangi, ngā mihi te whenua, ngā mihi ki a koutou, kia ora mai koutou. Thank you for the opportunity to be here and the invitation to speak at this 50th anniversary conference. I acknowledge all those who have gone before us and paved the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Employers and payroll providers ready for tax changes

    New Zealand’s payroll providers have successfully prepared to ensure 3.5 million individuals will, from Wednesday next week, be able to keep more of what they earn each pay, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis and Revenue Minister Simon Watts.  “The Government's tax policy changes are legally effective from Wednesday. Delivering this tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Experimental vineyard futureproofs wine industry

    An experimental vineyard which will help futureproof the wine sector has been opened in Blenheim by Associate Regional Development Minister Mark Patterson. The covered vineyard, based at the New Zealand Wine Centre – Te Pokapū Wāina o Aotearoa, enables controlled environmental conditions. “The research that will be produced at the Experimental ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Funding confirmed for regions affected by North Island Weather Events

    The Coalition Government has confirmed the indicative regional breakdown of North Island Weather Event (NIWE) funding for state highway recovery projects funded through Budget 2024, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Regions in the North Island suffered extensive and devastating damage from Cyclone Gabrielle and the 2023 Auckland Anniversary Floods, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Indonesian Foreign Minister to visit

    Indonesia’s Foreign Minister, Retno Marsudi, will visit New Zealand next week, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.   “Indonesia is important to New Zealand’s security and economic interests and is our closest South East Asian neighbour,” says Mr Peters, who is currently in Laos to engage with South East Asian partners. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Strengthening partnership with Ngāti Maniapoto

    He aha te kai a te rangatira? He kōrero, he kōrero, he kōrero. The government has reaffirmed its commitment to supporting the aspirations of Ngāti Maniapoto, Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka says. “My thanks to Te Nehenehenui Trust – Ngāti Maniapoto for bringing their important kōrero to a ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Transport Minister thanks outgoing CAA Chair

    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has thanked outgoing Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority, Janice Fredric, for her service to the board.“I have received Ms Fredric’s resignation from the role of Chair of the Civil Aviation Authority,” Mr Brown says.“On behalf of the Government, I want to thank Ms Fredric for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Test for Customary Marine Title being restored

    The Government is proposing legislation to overturn a Court of Appeal decision and amend the Marine and Coastal Area Act in order to restore Parliament’s test for Customary Marine Title, Treaty Negotiations Minister Paul Goldsmith says.  “Section 58 required an applicant group to prove they have exclusively used and occupied ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Opposition united in bad faith over ECE sector review

    Regulation Minister David Seymour says that opposition parties have united in bad faith, opposing what they claim are ‘dangerous changes’ to the Early Childhood Education sector, despite no changes even being proposed yet.  “Issues with affordability and availability of early childhood education, and the complexity of its regulation, has led ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Kiwis having their say on first regulatory review

    After receiving more than 740 submissions in the first 20 days, Regulation Minister David Seymour is asking the Ministry for Regulation to extend engagement on the early childhood education regulation review by an extra two weeks.  “The level of interest has been very high, and from the conversations I’ve been ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government upgrading Lower North Island commuter rail

    The Coalition Government is investing $802.9 million into the Wairarapa and Manawatū rail lines as part of a funding agreement with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA), KiwiRail, and the Greater Wellington and Horizons Regional Councils to deliver more reliable services for commuters in the lower North Island, Transport Minister Simeon ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government moves to ensure flood protection for Wairoa

    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced his intention to appoint a Crown Manager to both Hawke’s Bay Regional and Wairoa District Councils to speed up the delivery of flood protection work in Wairoa."Recent severe weather events in Wairoa this year, combined with damage from Cyclone Gabrielle in 2023 have ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • PM speech to Parliament – Royal Commission of Inquiry’s Report into Abuse in Care

    Mr Speaker, this is a day that many New Zealanders who were abused in State care never thought would come. It’s the day that this Parliament accepts, with deep sorrow and regret, the Report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care.  At the heart of this report are the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges torture at Lake Alice

    For the first time, the Government is formally acknowledging some children and young people at Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital experienced torture. The final report of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in State and Faith-based Care “Whanaketia – through pain and trauma, from darkness to light,” was tabled in Parliament ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Government acknowledges courageous abuse survivors

    The Government has acknowledged the nearly 2,400 courageous survivors who shared their experiences during the Royal Commission of Inquiry into Historical Abuse in State and Faith-Based Care. The final report from the largest and most complex public inquiry ever held in New Zealand, the Royal Commission Inquiry “Whanaketia – through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Half a million people use tax calculator

    With a week to go before hard-working New Zealanders see personal income tax relief for the first time in fourteen years, 513,000 people have used the Budget tax calculator to see how much they will benefit, says Finance Minister Nicola Willis.  “Tax relief is long overdue. From next Wednesday, personal income ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Paid Parental Leave improvements pass first reading

    Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says a bill that has passed its first reading will improve parental leave settings and give non-biological parents more flexibility as primary carer for their child. The Regulatory Systems Amendment Bill (No3), passed its first reading this morning. “It includes a change ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Rebuilding the economy through better regulation

    Two Bills designed to improve regulation and make it easier to do business have passed their first reading in Parliament, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. The Regulatory Systems (Economic Development) Amendment Bill and Regulatory Systems (Immigration and Workforce) Amendment Bill make key changes to legislation administered by the Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • ‘Open banking’ and ‘open electricity’ on the way

    New legislation paves the way for greater competition in sectors such as banking and electricity, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Competitive markets boost productivity, create employment opportunities and lift living standards. To support competition, we need good quality regulation but, unfortunately, a recent OECD report ranked New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Charity lotteries to be permitted to operate online

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says lotteries for charitable purposes, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, and local hospices, will soon be allowed to operate online permanently. “Under current laws, these fundraising lotteries are only allowed to operate online until October 2024, after which ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Accelerating Northland Expressway

    The Coalition Government is accelerating work on the new four-lane expressway between Auckland and Whangārei as part of its Roads of National Significance programme, with an accelerated delivery model to deliver this project faster and more efficiently, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “For too long, the lack of resilient transport connections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Sir Don to travel to Viet Nam as special envoy

    Sir Don McKinnon will travel to Viet Nam this week as a Special Envoy of the Government, Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced.    “It is important that the Government give due recognition to the significant contributions that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong made to New Zealand-Viet Nam relations,” Mr ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Grant Illingworth KC appointed as transitional Commissioner to Royal Commission

    Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says newly appointed Commissioner, Grant Illingworth KC, will help deliver the report for the first phase of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, due on 28 November 2024.  “I am pleased to announce that Mr Illingworth will commence his appointment as ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ to advance relationships with ASEAN partners

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters travels to Laos this week to participate in a series of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-led Ministerial meetings in Vientiane.    “ASEAN plays an important role in supporting a peaceful, stable and prosperous Indo-Pacific,” Mr Peters says.   “This will be our third visit to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Backing mental health services on the West Coast

    Construction of a new mental health facility at Te Nikau Grey Hospital in Greymouth is today one step closer, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “This $27 million facility shows this Government is delivering on its promise to boost mental health care and improve front line services,” Mr Doocey says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ support for sustainable Pacific fisheries

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