BoJo plot foiled – for the time being

Written By: Mike Smith - Date published: 1:47 am, September 12th, 2019 - 57 comments
Categories: Europe, uk politics - Tags:

Phil Syrpis, Professor of EU Law at Bristol University, tweeted in July Johnson’s plan to force a general election as the defender of the people’s decision against the UK Parliament’s indecision and Brussels bureaucratic intransigence and be in power for the next five years. It was rumbled and it failed.

The twitter thread is here. Quite a remarkable piece of political forecasting. It makes sense of Jacob Rees-Mogg’s open contempt of Parliament, goading his Conservative colleagues into the desired voting against Johnson.

Now the Brexit ball is back in Johnson’s court, with very little time and very few options. Either go to the European Union on 17th October with a new deal, which cannot be too far from the one already rejected by the Parliament, or crash out of Europe on the 31st October and face the consequences of that.

Parliament has demanded the production of the so-called Yellowhammer report which details the likely effects of ‘no deal’, and the government is dragging its feet. Revocation is not an impossibility.

Any election before 2022 will now be held against the backdrop of Brexit reality not Brexit promise. It will be fought on the old grounds of austerity versus social and economic development. Johnson is carrying on with the strategy by campaigning on the areas where the Tories are weak – schools, hospitals and the police.

The Johnson plan of a deregulated nirvana is out of the window. The timing advantage has shifted to the opposition parties, who are showing encouraging signs of being able to work with each other.

Expect the polls to shift.

57 comments on “BoJo plot foiled – for the time being ”

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Sanctuary 1

12 September 2019 at 7:11 am

"…Revocation is not an impossibility…"

Don't fall into the trap of believing the hard remain liberal impossibilism.

The perogation business is merely a procedural pantomime that changes nothing. The main UK parties all hold their conferences now anyway, so no one will even be in Westminster until the middle of the first week of October.

The ONLY practical way there will be an extension (let alone a second referendum or a soft Brexit) is for the Labour plan of caretaker government to be installed under Jeremy Corbyn to a) get an extension and then b) hold an election. This won't happen, because the Liberal-Democrats (the party of the managerial class who are material winners from neoliberalism) see Corbynism as an existential threat and I can't see them backing such a plan.

Jo Swinson has already shown she has all the the hard remainers lack of sense of their limitations and therefore walks easily into the traps laid for her. Labour wouldn't mind the Lib-Dems getting the blame for a no deal Brexit and Boris Johnson being in charge for the ensuing economic downturn.

Labour's plan all along has been to be the last reasonable person in the room, and to turn the tables on the disaster capitalists of the UKIP Tories.
- Andre 1.1
  
  12 September 2019 at 7:31 am
  
  Have I got this right? Labour's plan all along has been to swoop in to take charge of the charred remains after doing nothing to stop Boorish and pals burning the village? And the doing nothing bit is to ensure Boorish et al take the full blame for the conflagration?
  
  Inspiring.
  - Sanctuary 1.1.1
    
    12 September 2019 at 7:34 am
    
    No, as I see it Labour's plan is to try and unite the country.
    - alwyn 1.1.1.1
      
      12 September 2019 at 3:30 pm
      
      I'm afraid the only uniting of the country that Corbyn seems to have achieved is the increasing dislike of the Labour Party, and of him as a prospective leader.
      
      The last election in Britain was in June 2017. Since then the Labour Party has shown a steady decline in popularity.
      
      In the second half of 2017 they polled in the low to mid 40's
      
      In the first half of 2018 they polled in the high 30's to the low 40's.
      
      In the second half of 2018 they polled in the mid to high 30's.
      
      In the first half of 2019 they polled in the mid 30's.
      
      Now, in the second half of 2019 they are pretty consistently in the mid 20's.
      
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2018
      
      Oh dear, so sad, never mind.
  - Nic the NZer 1.1.2
    
    12 September 2019 at 8:08 am
    
    Labour's plan all along has been to swoop in to take charge of the charred remains after doing nothing to stop Boorish and pals burning the village?
    
    Hyperbolic much?
    - Sanctuary 1.1.2.1
      
      12 September 2019 at 8:34 am
      
      The sudden realisation that Jeremy Corbyn – the man who the liberal Oxbridge elite has, in lockstep with the far-right press, spent the last four years smearing in the most vicious ways imaginable – is now the last, best hope of avoiding a hard Brexit has led to a hilarious deluge of panicked rehabilitation opinion pieces in papers like the Guardian.
      
      The biggest winner from Jeremy Corbyn being made even a temporary PM will be Corbyn himself. If he is PM even for only ten weeks and the STASI don't come for your pet bunny rabbits, then the idea of him being PM for good will get a giant boost.
      - weka 1.1.2.1.1
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:09 am
        
        something good to come from Brexit then.
        
        JohnP 1.1.2.1.1.1
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:17 am
        
        Labour's Deputy Leader gave a speech on Wednesday which directly contradicted the entire Labour policy on Brexit. Instead of the policy which says Election, then Referendum – Watson was demanding Referendum, then Election. The only issue was 1. that would require a SEVEN MONTH caretaker Government 2. there is no pathway to that ever happening.
        
        Corbyn, to his credit has said publicly "I don't agree with Tom, our policy doesn't agree with Tom, we're not doing that"
        
        Tom Watson has kept doing this, coming out and deliberately using his media weight to contradict the leadership and agreed party policy – but his role as Deputy Leader means Corbyn can't remove him like he did to other Shadow Cabinet members who deliberately went against the party's own policy.
        
        It's curious he's done it now, when Labour have had their best week in terms of looking like a serious Government in waiting.
        
        But if you consider that to the Labour Right and Liberal Democrats, Corbyn being Prime Minister for any length of time at all completelty explodes their myth that 'he's not Prime Ministerial' then Watson's attempts and Swinson's entirely purposeful attempts to avoid agreeing with Labour, even when Labour have made concessions to their policy – they suddenly make sense.
        
        With Johnson as PM, Corbyn suddenly doesn't seem such a bad option – which utterly terrifies them. They're willing to sail as close to No Deal as they can, and wreck Labour's election chances, to stop him getting into power.
        
        If he’s Prime Minister for any time, they can’t say he ‘isn’t Prime Ministerial’.
        
        alwyn …
        
        12 September 2019 at 8:51 pm
        
        "If he’s Prime Minister for any time, they can’t say he ‘isn’t Prime Ministerial’."
        
        Does that mean that you regard Boris as being "Prime Ministerial material".
        
        Personally I would consider him to be a dolt.
  - JohnP 1.1.3
    
    12 September 2019 at 8:16 am
    
    Labour's plan has been a series of decisions, if and when the situation develops. Kier Starmer – who is hardly a Marxist – wrote the updated policy last conference – it was…
    
    a) get a good deal (May's deal wasn't good and Labour KNEW that from the off, it was never going to pass in the House of Commons)
    
    b) if no a) stop No Deal from happening
    
    c) if no a) but b) is sorted then General Election to change parliamentary arithmetic and try and break deadlock
    
    d) if b) and c) leads to Labour majority/coalition then Second Referendum – Labour negotiated Brexit vs Remain – Labour MPs could campaign on either side of it
    
    e) Respect and implement result of the second referendum
    - Andre 1.1.3.1
      
      12 September 2019 at 8:27 am
      
      Well, that should lock down the vote from lawyers, logic puzzle aficionados, and Heath Robinson fans. Doesn't give anybody else much of a clue what result supporting Labour is likely to achieve.
      - JohnP 1.1.3.1.1
        
        12 September 2019 at 8:38 am
        
        Brexit is a logic puzzle, and one that's completely broken UK politics for three years. A simple answer isn't going to work, isn't that obvious by now?
        
        Well, we're at point b) now – and if the legislation prevents Johnson going for No Deal on October 31st by requesting an extension on October 17th, given it's unlikely he will strike a deal with the EU, then there will be a General Election in November.
        
        The choices at that election are pretty simple…
        
        Tories: No Deal
        
        Lib Dems: Revoke Article 50, but only if they win a majority (which they won't) at which point they revert to a Second Referendum – No Deal vs Remain (!!!)
        
        Labour: Second Referendum – Labour's Deal vs Remain
        If you charge into an election promising a RESULT either one way or the other, then you’re absolutely going to hack off around 52/48% of the country which will explode your campaign. Changing the number of MPs in the house will bring about a result though, because right now there’s no majority for No Deal or a Referendum.
        
        The pathway's pretty simple, but the arithmetic is difficult because the Lib Dems – literally two days ago – shifted from Second Referendum to No Article 50 purely because there's an election coming. If that swings Lab/Tory seats to the Tories, then it makes No Deal more likely. If it drives Lib Dem voters away from them in Lib/Tory seats, then again, more Tories and fewer Lib Dem MPs.
        
        Dukeofurl 1.1.3.1.1.1
        
        12 September 2019 at 9:40 am
        
        The No deal legislation is more of an 'exchange of letters' for an extension.
        
        Typically more muddled thinking on the whole Brexit saga.
        
        Whats more interesting is the whole slab of Tories who no longer have the whip or have defected to Lib Dems has made the DUP of Northern Ireland irrelevant. They were once the small bridge that May could use to get legislation passed with her slim majority.
        
        Johnson is technically a minority PM who has no need for finely crafted vote buying deals with the DUP.
        
        Coming back into discussion is the 'Irish Sea' border deal where the North- South backstop is irrelevant –
        
        Britain is no longer inside the EU customs area after the Brexit but Northern Ireland is as a 'temporary arrangement'
        
        Dukeofurl …
        
        12 September 2019 at 9:53 am
        
        Frustratingly difficult to find an official text of the so called no deal Act or as its formally known
        
        European Union ( Withdrawal) No 6
        
        https://services.parliament.uk/Bills/2017-19/europeanunionwithdrawalno6.html
        
        Treetop …
        
        12 September 2019 at 11:29 am
        
        Please provide a link for the temporary arrangement with Northern Ireland.
        
        I think a different exit date for Northern Ireland leaving the EU is a winner. At least a different exit date is not a big distracton and it just may calm the waters.
        
        Dukeofurl …
        
        12 September 2019 at 12:53 pm
        
        Just look up Irish Sea 'border'.
        
        May rejected it because she depended on DUP for a stable majority…now Johnson is deep into minority they dont matter any more.
        
        Treetop …
        
        12 September 2019 at 1:08 pm
        
        DUP wanted to exit but Northern Ireland population wanted to stay in EU.
        
        Even that wasn't sorted. The irony is that no one knows what the outcome of an election or another referendum would be.
        
        So you can only work with what you have.
        
        1. To Brexit based on a referendum.
        
        2. Do a hard Brexit on 31 October. Trick or treat as Halloween.
        
        3. And to brace oneself that the troubles do not return to the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
        
        weka 1.1.3.1.1.2
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:13 am
        
        "shifted from Second Referendum to No Article 50"
        
        What happens with No Article 50?
        
        JohnP …
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:24 am
        
        Basically they're gonna try and get their Brexit policy changed at Conference to straight up revoking Article 50, which they will campaign on in the upcoming election.
        
        Given they've spent two years campaigning for a second referendum, now Labour also backs one, they've shifted to an even harder remain position – one with no public vote.
        
        It would provide Johnson the No Deal vs Hard Remain election he wants, and probably unite all those who voted for Brexit as it would be portrayed as a betrayal of the 2016 referendum.
        
        Interestingly, as I said, they also have said they would Revoke Article 50 if they WON an election. Lib Dems won't win 326 seats. Their position if they don't win a majority is to go back to a Second Referendum.
        
        So essentially, this is all just posturing for an election – but posturing that could impact Lab/Tory marginals or Lib/Tory marginals – which is not good if you wanted to have a second referendum.
        
        Dukeofurl …
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:27 am
        
        2nd Referendum was just a gimmick/revote to get Article 50 revoked and remain.
        
        Now that 2nd referendum or as they called it – peoples Vote- is off the table for good they are revealing the real aim . Remain
        
        JohnP …
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:32 am
        
        For the Liberal Democrats, agreed. Labour absolutely want that Second Referendum, and have been slated by People's Vote for not demanding it in the way the LD's did. Hilariously the People's Vote lot are now furious with the LD's for shifting to Hard Remain, because now they've got to support Labour, who they've spent three years attacking for not wanting a Second Referendum – even when they have.
    - soddenleaf 1.1.3.2
      
      12 September 2019 at 2:25 pm
      
      lol. Colonial media mogul appealed to by brexit referendum… …foolish Tory party make it a election platform. ha! joys of joys, Tories exposed for the anti globalist destroyers of the UK economy.
  - AB 1.1.4
    
    12 September 2019 at 9:55 am
    
    Labour's approach seems to be:
    
    1.) Respect the referendum so as not to fall victim to a "people vs parliament" framing. Also because a fair chunk of Labour supporters voted leave.
    
    2.) Block a 'no deal' because arguably it's not what the referendum result intended. But principally because it's cover for the Tories' far-right wet dream of a bonfire of regulations and creating a Singapore in the North Atlantic (something that would mean misery for Labour's constituency)
    
    3.) Therefore (due to 1 and 2) try to negotiate a better deal and put it to the public via a second referendum against a Remain option.
    
    It is logical and principled – but the perception of it is confounded by pervasive and deranged anti-Corbynism.. There is a severe practical difficulty though – whether any acceptable deal (one that will pass in parliament) can now be negotiated with the EU. If not, then No Deal or Remain are the only options. No Deal of course inevitably turns into a Deal – probably an exceptionally bad one made on the fly as everyone panics and wants to stop the chaos asap.
    - weka 1.1.4.1
      
      12 September 2019 at 10:19 am
      
      thanks for that clear explanation.
    - SPC 1.1.4.2
      
      12 September 2019 at 10:34 am
      
      The seem to want an election before holding a referendum.
      - JohnP 1.1.4.2.1
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:36 am
        
        There's no majority, currently, for a referendum. An election will resolve that.
        
        SPC 1.1.4.2.1.1
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:44 am
        
        How would an election resolve that?
        
        The Tories win and there is a no deal Brexit.
        
        In what world do Labour form a majority and decide anything? They would need the same partners as in the current parliament to agree on holding a referendum.
        
        JohnP …
        
        12 September 2019 at 11:11 am
        
        An election would give the Opposition parties an obvious mandate for what to do next. Right now they're stuck in a weird zone where most party's positions have significantly shifted from the 2017 election – Tories are No Deal, Lib Dems are Revoke Article 50, Labour are 2nd Referendum, SNP are 2nd Referendum.
        
        Tories likely to lose at least 10 of their 13 Scotland seats in an election. There's LD/Tory marginals in play, and the Tory vote does tend to break LD rather than Labour. Tory/Labour marginals may also be in play if LD voters decide a 2nd Referendum appeals more than Revoke Article 50. Then there's the Rebels, some of whom may retain their seats, and the Labour breakaway lot who are absolutely going to lose their seats and add to Labour's total.
        
        That’s before you get to Farage, who the Tories have rebuffed firmly today. If they don’t do a deal, then the Brexit party is gonna eat a lot of Tory votes up in marginals – which is good news for the Opposition parties as well.
        
        The idea of a caretaker govt is lovely, and has been proposed by Labour – but the Lib Dems have outright refused to do it. Also a Government led by a grandee for seven months while they sort out a Referendum is going to be absolute bloody meat and drink to the Tories and the Brexit Party.
        
        If there's a GE, the Tories might win.
        
        But if there isn't, then they're absolutely going to do a No Deal Brexit.
        
        If the Opposition Parties campaign on their approaches to Brexit, in comparison to the Tories – then the electoral result should break the parliamentary deadlock – or at least convince the LD’s that Corbyn as PM isn’t the apocalypse.
        
        Dukeofurl …
        
        12 September 2019 at 12:59 pm
        
        "Tories are No Deal," really?
        
        Check what Johnson campaigned on for the leadership -it was (revised) Brexit Deal.
        
        No deal is his bargaining position to get EU to shift from "No Revised Deal'" – the pain will be felt on both sides, but especially by ( Northern) France , Ireland , Parts of Germany ( who are in a recession ) Denmark , Netherlands
        
        JohnP …
        
        12 September 2019 at 1:13 pm
        
        He wants no hard border between Eire and N.I but he's also ruled out a N.I only backstop (literally today, he's said that) and his own resigning Ministers have clearly stated that Johnson does not have a proposal that solves the problems he wishes to address – and the E.U have said that it is down to him to propose something better than the backstop that May agreed to. He has five weeks to find a solution to the problem and present it.
        
        Dukeofurl …
        
        12 September 2019 at 1:50 pm
        
        Thats the EU line – its down to him
        
        UK has already come up with soft border proposals but Ireland and EU has rejected them.
        
        Then they throw in the Good Friday Agreement – another red heering- as it goes on for pages about minutiae of Stormont assembly and the NI Police Force , but crucially barely mentions the border , other than removing security checkpoints. ( I CHECKED !)
        
        Irish citizens have free entry and work rights in UK since 1922 and that wont chaNGE
JohnP 2

12 September 2019 at 8:21 am

Yellowhammer is out and, hoo boy, No Deal is baaaaaad

Here's the bad news.

Fuel shortages, refinerys closing down.

Delays at all ports.

Food shortages.

Unrest in Northern Ireland.

Medicine shortages.

Basically, everything that everyone's been saying will happen and being dismissed by the Tories.

Edit: Even more hilarious is that the difference between this copy of Yellowhammer and the one that was leaked at the start of August and dismissed by the Tories as ‘out of date’ and incorrect is…

The title. They changed the heading from BASE SCENARIO to HMG Reasonable Worst Case Planning Assumptions. That’s it.

These Tories really are a pack of useless ****’s.
- Dukeofurl 2.1
  
  12 September 2019 at 9:44 am
  
  project Fear said all the same stuff. Why would refinerys need to close down. Britain has its own tanker berths and the crude oil comes from outside the EU anyway.
  
  Not the Tories fault per se. The House of Commons couldnt pass the May 'EU deal', nor any other combination
  
  No deal – failed
  
  Deal -failed
  
  Remain- failed
  - JohnP 2.1.1
    
    12 September 2019 at 9:56 am
    
    Here's the actual text Duke, so you can see why…
    
    “15. Facing EU tariffs makes petrol exports to the EU uncompetitive. Industry had plans to mitigate the impact on refinery margins and profitability but UK Government policy to set petrol import tariffs at 0% inadvertently undermines these plans. This leads to significant financial losses and announcement of two refinery closures (and transition to import terminals) and direct job losses (about 2000). Resulting strike action at refineries would lead to disruptions to fuel availability for 1-2 weeks in the regions directly supplied by the refineries.”
    
    So the refineries would lose, immediately, their market for refining and exporting petrol to the EU which has the knock-on effect of closing those refinieries which also supply the UK market.
    - weka 2.1.1.1
      
      12 September 2019 at 10:22 am
      
      why would the industry not adapt around a smaller market (i.e. UK only)? Or failing that, the govt nationalises the ones the UK needs.
      - JohnP 2.1.1.1.1
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:25 am
        
        It would, but to do so it would need to close a couple of refineries.
        
        Nationalising one though? Under the Tories. Unlikely.
        
        weka 2.1.1.1.1.1
        
        12 September 2019 at 11:38 am
        
        So the fuel shortages would be short term? Nothing catastrophic?
        
        JohnP …
        
        12 September 2019 at 12:01 pm
        
        Catastrophic if you're one of the 2,000 workers who get the boot, or you're involved in the supply chain to the continent – but overcomeable, sort of – there's also the question of importation/tariffs on petrol from the EU etc.
        
        weka …
        
        12 September 2019 at 12:58 pm
        
        I'm thinking catastrophic is the UK economy collapsing and people starving. Or there not being enough fuel for essential services because the refineries have closed.
        
        What's the question of importation/tariffs on petrol from the EU etc?
        
        Dukeofurl …
        
        12 September 2019 at 2:02 pm
        
        Where is EU going to get that shortfall of Petroleum products from
        
        in 2018 it was £21 bill from UK. Dont know what the share of stuff from a refinery was compared to crude oil. Norway is only other main EU supplier ( even though not totally in EU)
        
        Are they going to get it out of thin air , or import from elsewhere and pay much higher transport charges ..
        
        Me thinks it will take some time before they stop buying 21 billion pound of petroleum products (mostly crude oil?)
        
        Interesting that there is a thing called
        
        2.1 The Rotterdam effect
        All of these figures do not account for what is known as the Rotterdam effect – this is the theory that the UK’s trade with the Netherlands is artificially inflated owing to goods being dispatched to or arriving from the port of Rotterdam, even if the original source or eventual destination country is elsewhere.
        This will also have a potential knock-on effect, as some trade recorded with the Netherlands, and thus the EU, may ultimately be with non-EU countries.
        
        https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7851/CBP-7851.pdf
        
        Gosman …
        
        12 September 2019 at 4:41 pm
        
        I presume there will still be trade between the EU and the UK after a no deal brexit. It won't just stop. However it will be heavily constrained by the extra regulations that it will face. This will cause severe issues.
        
        weka …
        
        12 September 2019 at 10:34 pm
        
        fine opportunity to wean themselves off oil.
Dukeofurl 3

12 September 2019 at 8:53 am

so Phil Syrpis is hard core remainer who doesnt even believe in Brexit , just like a loyal EU acolyte would.

His choice is the soi disant Peoples Vote

Whats this 'Rees Mogg open contempt of parliament'…..all governments work like that…maybe some people could knock the stars out of their eyes that its some wonderful assembly of the great and the good. Most are party hacks, careerists and non -entities, not all that different to Johnson himself.

a post linking to Phil Syrpis is the classic bubble chamber in action
Wayne 4

12 September 2019 at 9:00 am

Based on what Corbyn himself has said (not necessarily to be relied on) there will be an election in late November. That is because the new Act requires Boris to write to the EU for an extension of the withdrawal date to January. As I understand it, that is all it does, it postpones (if the EU agrees) the UK withdrawal till January. Which doesn't actually solve very much.

A No Deal Brexit, or a Deal Brexit would happen then. Though going by history it won't. Under the current UK parliament, all that would happen is a request for a further extension. Presumably at some point the EU will tire of continuing requests for extensions.

So therefore any election before the end of the year will be all about Brexit. There may be other issues, but it will be Brexit that will be on the voters minds.

So will there be an election before Christmas? Probably, since the current parliament is unsustainable. I can't see the Tory rebels agreeing to Jeremy being the PM for any length of time, but in the current state of British politics who knows? I can certainly see that they would for up to six months, to get past January. Would Jeremy be able to negotiate a new deal that would get through parliament? Unlikely, given that the current parliament has never been able to agree on any specific deal.

All in all, my bet is on an election prior to Christmas, at the absolute latest, in February. Who will win? At the moment not easy to say. Most probably Boris with a greater number of MP's. But there are any number of circumstances that will stop that. Farange for instance. A surge to the Lib Dems. A late surge to Corbyn.
SPC 5

12 September 2019 at 10:32 am

Parliament should form a new government for the sole purpose of resolving the Brexit matter and then getting this deal confirmed by a referendum vote (given there is no confidence in the Tory government realising this).

A Tory rebel or former Labour MP as acting PM, not the leader of either Labour or LD.

The only deal the LD and Labour could agree on is staying in the customs union and single market, or a bespoke negotiated deal that is very similar to this in all but name.

Once this is done, power should be handed back to the Tory DUP coalition.

They would be unable to do a FTA with Trump (who is set on destroying the WTO and subjugating nations to a neo-imperialism via bi-lateral deals), they would be unable to change legislation in breach of single market rules, their wet dreams over ….

An election in 2022 as planned.
- Gosman 5.1
  
  12 September 2019 at 12:53 pm
  
  That would work if UK Labour would stop insisting Corbyn should be PM in any temporary caretaker government.
- Dukeofurl 5.2
  
  12 September 2019 at 4:38 pm
  
  Tory DUP coalition. /
  doesnt exist.
  
  DUP were only confidence , maybe not even supply agreement. They are an impossible party to deal with.
  
  Anyway events have moved on , even if DUP were Boris lap dogs , cant really govern.
  
  Thats why he wants an election if if an special deal with EU is worked out and they leave with mwah mwah to and from EU
The Al1en 6

12 September 2019 at 11:37 am

Expect the polls to shift.

Sure they will, they always do, but in regards to this article and your expected swing to the opposition, how about you give some predictions so the worth of your political nous can be assessed to a time frame.
joe90 7

12 September 2019 at 12:19 pm

tl.dr; Johnson's backers are taking a punt on him jiggering the British economy.

Invested in a No-Deal BrexitSo, how much are these firms set to make from Boris Johnson’s ‘do or die’ approach to Brexit?

From the financial data publicly available, Byline Times can reveal that currently £4,563,350,000 (£4.6 billion) of aggregate short positions on a ‘no deal’ Brexit have been taken out by hedge funds that directly or indirectly bankrolled Boris Johnson’s leadership campaign.

Most of these firms also donated to Vote Leave and took out short positions on the EU Referendum result. The ones which didn’t typically didn’t exist at that time but are invariably connected via directorships to companies that did.

https://bylinetimes.com/2019/09/11/brexit-disaster-capitalism-8-billion-bet-on-no-deal-crash-out-by-boris-johnsons-leave-backers/
Dukeofurl 8

12 September 2019 at 12:49 pm

And you believe these sorts of fake news sites ?

That sort of speculation would happen no matter who was PM…..betting pound will rise ..short it. betting Pound will fall…short it.

For every position that is short there is another that is long ..often the same firms as they profit on the arbitrage between the two.

looking at the list of donors wheres the smoking gun.?
Gosman 9

12 September 2019 at 1:04 pm

If UK Labour had a half way decent leader they should be 20 points clear. Corbyn has tied himself and the party in knots over Brexit that noone knows what they really stand for. This coupled with his far left image is why they are languishing in the polls. I expect the opposition bloc to pick up support in the event of a delay (almost inevitable) in Brexit past 31 st October but I suspect that much of the increased support will go to the Lib Dems. The election is likely going to lead to another hung Parliament but this time it will be almost impossible to form a government for anybody. The only way out as far as I can see is another referendum.
Colin 10

12 September 2019 at 1:54 pm

The majority in the UK do not want an anti Semitic, Hamas loving, IRA Bombing supporter ( Birmingham 1974. 21 Deaths. 182 injured ) who Flip Flops on Brexit, who is not popular within his own Party, Left of Left, & would be a complete Disaster in theTop Job.
- Dukeofurl 10.1
  
  12 September 2019 at 4:33 pm
  
  Labour vote increased 9% in last general election with Corbyn as leader.
  
  There hasnt been a government elected in Uk with a majority – 50% of the vote since the 1930s ( close in the late 50s)
  
  https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b7/Popular_vote.jpg/750px-Popular_vote.jpg
  - Gosman 10.1.1
    
    12 September 2019 at 4:39 pm
    
    This was when Corbyn was largely untested in UK Politics as leader. He campaigned very well and May was terrible. This time around Corbyn will face a populist not a apparatchik.
    - Dukeofurl 10.1.1.1
      
      13 September 2019 at 3:17 pm
      
      Isnt that what election campaigns do – test someone as a leader for a period and then the voters decide?
      
      It seems that May jumped at the chance to take on Corbyn because of his low popularity in the polls but the Labour voters thought different.
      
      As for May being terrible' ?
      
      Tory vote increased ( on a larger base) by 5.5% as well ( over Camerons)-that would normally be a triumph, except Corbyn did better
      
      Again the voters disagreed with you
      
      There is no reasoning to your claims at all. Both improved their partys vote .
      Just face it you dont like either and thats really your view but isnt supported by the voters come election time
  - The Al1en 10.1.2
    
    12 September 2019 at 4:57 pm
    
    Yeah, up from Ed Miliband's 30.4% in 2015 to 40% against May's 42.4% in '17.
    
    Now Corbyn has 'led' the party to 20-23% against the worst, most divided conservative party in living memory. Some achievement.
    
    I can’t see how he gets those voters back, even if Borris eats a baby live on TV, any lost tory brexit votes immediately switch to Farrage, remain votes go Lib Dem.
    - Dukeofurl 10.1.2.1
      
      13 September 2019 at 3:31 pm
      
      Brexit divides both partys. To be honest, the nuances only matter to a political class.
      
      This great leader idea is so 1930s. The best Thatcher could have over Labour was 42-27%
      after Falklands and that was long before politics fractured and wasnt just two main parties