BREXIT: where it was won and lost

Written By: - Date published: 11:32 am, June 25th, 2016 - 78 comments
Categories: colonialism, Europe, International, uk politics - Tags: , , ,

As with any election, there are many different ways to slice and dice the results. The Telegraph has produced an article with graphics which shows very clearly where the vote went, in the different regions of the UK. Bottom line: Scotland, London and Northern Ireland voted strongly to REMAIN.

Every other major region of the UK decided to leave.

BREXIT

BREXIT 1

The Guardian shows who were most likely to vote REMAIN: richer, higher social class, degree holding individuals:

BREXIT 2

These results show that Scotland, Ireland and London have fundamentally different views of how themselves, and where they see their future in relation to Europe. And the split is both culturally/geographically and by social class/age.

78 comments on “BREXIT: where it was won and lost ”

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  1. b waghorn 1
    25 June 2016 at 11:52 am

    Forward thinking and or no love for the UK in N Ireland and Scotland,
    Money and alot of euro citizens/immigrants in London.

  2. Pat 2
    25 June 2016 at 12:01 pm

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/top-eu-leader-we-want-britain-out-as-soon-as-possible

    “Martin Schulz, the president of the European parliament, told the Guardian that EU lawyers were studying whether it was possible to speed up the triggering of article 50 of the Lisbon treaty – the untested procedure for leaving the union.”

    Merkel on Brexit

    “In the European treaties there is a clear set and orderly procedure for member states who want to leave the European Union. This procedure involves several years of negotiations, at the end of which we will have established the details of Britain’s departure from the European Union. While the negotiations are ongoing, Britain remains a member of the EU. All the rights and commitments that pertain to this membership are to be respected and fulfilled until the actual exit. This applies to both sides.”

    where does the power reside in the EU and which course of action is most likely?

  3. Paul 3
    25 June 2016 at 12:07 pm

    A revolt against the establishment.
    Following the same principle, Trump will win the U.S. election.

    • Ad 3.1
      25 June 2016 at 12:12 pm

      Along with:

      “This. Is. Sparta!”
      “Once more unto the breach, dear friends!”
      “But they can never take away my freedom!”
      and
      “To infinity, and beyond!”

      Can you hear me Major Boris?

      • Paul 3.1.1
        25 June 2016 at 12:19 pm

        Don’t get your point?

      • Ad 3.1.2
        25 June 2016 at 1:19 pm

        It’s an incoherence. There’s no single thing that it’s for, or against.
        There’s pro and anti establishment.
        There’s class.
        There’s nationalism.
        There’s ethnicity.
        Democratic impulses.
        Impulses of self-interest.
        Sub-regionalist interests.
        MSM and digital influences.
        There’s loss of Party influence both left and right.

        It’s incoherence upon emotion upon will upon ‘rights’.

        We don’t have to make sense of it with either origin or blame.
        I don’t think we will for several years.

        RedLogix says same thing below.

  4. Draco T Bastard 4
    25 June 2016 at 12:11 pm

    This tweet echoed through the twittersphere last night. It goes on about how the economically disadvantaged have merely swapped one elite for another. How they’ve fucked over the young and then finishes with a rant about how they ignored the ‘experts’.

    The question I have for them is: WTH would we listen to people who have been consistently wrong for 200+ years?

    It was these ‘experts’ that brought about the GFC, that have caused the poverty that’s now acting to bring down the system. The same system that caused all the poverty in the 19th century, caused WWI and then the Great Depression.

    If this was the 17th century the ‘experts’ would be telling us just how great feudalism is and that we just need more of it.

    • Kevin 4.1
      26 June 2016 at 10:07 am

      Completely agree.

      It has been interesting talking to my middle class, comfortably off, good jobs, friends in the UK who are horrified it has turned out this way.

      They have been brainwashed that this whole campaign is solely about immgration when the voting shows it was more based on economic circumstances. You can’t keep fucking the working class over indefinitely.

      I think the working class have flexed their muscles, finally, and even though this may disadvantage them, they have said enough is enough.

      I think this will be good for Corbyn as by only being lukewarm on Remain, he has burned very little political capital and his membership base will remain loyal. Those calling for his replacement need to remember who got him elected leader in the first place.

    • Sabine 5.1
      25 June 2016 at 1:09 pm

      did the same 🙂

    • D'Esterre 5.2
      25 June 2016 at 10:53 pm

      b waghorn: “Glad I shifted the kiwi saver to cash awhile back”

      Having a share portfolio means playing the long game. I’ve had shares a long, long time; I’ve seen it all before.The market goes up, goes down, goes up again. In the long run – provided you or your fund manager exercise caution and don’t get carried away investing in bubbles (ie, certain dotcom-type companies) – you’ll be better off with a dog in the share market game than just with cash in the bank.

      • b waghorn 5.2.1
        26 June 2016 at 10:58 am

        If you one was paying attention would they be better to switch from cash to shares as they read the market ,or are you just better to stick with shares no matter what.

        • D'Esterre 5.2.1.1
          26 June 2016 at 11:30 pm

          b waghorn: “…are you just better to stick with shares no matter what.”

          If you’ve got shares, manage your portfolio carefully – or pay someone with chops in that field to do it for you – and hang in there. Don’t be scared off by the upsy-downsy of the market: it’s the nature of the beast. In the long run (decades, not just a few years) you’ll be better off than if you just have cash in the bank, which is the equivalent of all the eggs in one basket. No harm in having some cash in the bank, but have shares as well. Your money needs to work for you, and interest rates are so low at present that too big a proportion of your cash in the bank might as well be under your mattress, for all the good it’s doing you.

  6. mauī 6
    25 June 2016 at 12:37 pm

    What I don’t get is if the exit is about the failure of neoliberalism policies then why did the young -under 25s and under 50s vote so strongly to remain?

    • Paul 6.1
      25 June 2016 at 1:18 pm

      I would imagine the numbers are slightly skewed by the fact that a much smaller % of the younger electorate actually voted.
      It would be interesting to see voter turn out by age.
      Poor young people don’t vote.
      And it would appear poor people voted to leave.

      • Greg 6.1.1
        25 June 2016 at 1:48 pm

        and muslims, if they vote?

      • weka 6.1.2
        25 June 2016 at 1:57 pm

        +1 Paul.

        I think there is also an issue in that older people have closer memory of the time before neoliberalism.

        • Robertina 6.1.2.1
          25 June 2016 at 2:07 pm

          What then do you make of the strong support from young people for Corbyn and Sanders?

          • Paul 6.1.2.1.1
            25 June 2016 at 2:10 pm

            I think the young metropolitan middle class are out there supporting Corbyn.
            I’m not sure the young of Burnley, Sunderland and Peterborough are, though.

            • weka 6.1.2.1.1.1
              25 June 2016 at 2:18 pm

              I’m having quite a hard time finding the figures for turnout by age.

              Lots of fancy charts that I don’t have the time to make sense of, and lots of rhetoric that looks driven less by fact and more by panic.

              This is the best I can find,

              http://blogs.ft.com/ftdata/2016/06/24/brexit-demographic-divide-eu-referendum-results/

              Generalisation is that areas with younger populations had lower turnout.

              Politicised university towns had higher turnout.

              Glasgow with a high youth population had a very low turnout.

              • Paul …
                25 June 2016 at 2:22 pm

                So it looks like the poor young did not vote. Hence the middle class young had a disproportionate influence.

                • Colonial Viper …
                  25 June 2016 at 4:01 pm

                  But educated youth with degrees looking forward to nice careers all across the EU including Brussels voted REMAIN.

            • Robertina 6.1.2.1.1.2
              25 June 2016 at 2:51 pm

              Right, so the determinants are more likely to be class and geography, not the year in which one was born.

              It’s also possible, I guess, that young people who oppose neoliberalism were more likely to take the pragmatic view that ending EU membership is not going to mean an end to neoliberalism (in fact Britain might end up with the worst of both worlds in that regard).

              But the idea that young people support neoliberalism because they ‘can’t remember’ a time before it is just plain silly.

              • Paul …
                25 June 2016 at 3:01 pm

                I didn’t say that about neo-liberalism.
                Younger middle class cosmopolitan people are more likely to support Europe than poor young people. I think the stats bear that out and I am happy to be proved wrong.

              • weka …
                25 June 2016 at 5:46 pm

                “But the idea that young people support neoliberalism because they ‘can’t remember’ a time before it is just plain silly.”

                I also didn’t say that. For one, I’m not inclined to lump all young people into one set of behaviours or politics.

                My parents understanding about WW2 is different than mine because they were there. People who have grown up under neoliberalism who think it’s a bad idea will have a different perspective than someone like me who had a pre-neoliberalism upbringing.

  7. Bill 7
    25 June 2016 at 12:39 pm

    Some Scots wanting independence would have voted to remain, even if they wanted to leave, in order to bring on a second independence referendum.

    Some Scots who voted against independence because Scotland would get kicked out of Europe may well now vote for independence in any future referendum.

    In terms of austerity, and this applies less to Scotland where a positive parliamentary alternative (SNP and Greens) is available that actively tries to mitigate the effects of Westminster austerities…

    Take areas like the North East of England and gut it (this goes back to Thatcher). Bail out a banking sector that’s crashed and as a result turn the screws even tighter…close libraries, cut health care and welfare etc. Tell people there’s no alternative.

    Under this yoke of ‘TINA’, the guy who’s been unemployed or who can only find precarious work, sees immigrant workers move into the area and knows he can’t live on that wages and conditions that they work for. Who’s to blame? The immigrant? Brussels? The government?

    Brussels (the technocratic center of Europe that regards ‘democracy’ as it would a dog shit) is rightly despised. And the government fronting for ‘Remain’ is despised.

    The possibility then gets presented whereby one vote cast can result in two black eyes. And a Farage rides a wave of dissatifaction that may or may not be predominantly grounded in racism – that may be essentially a wave of ‘anti-politics’; of desperate people using a vote to strike back in some way, any way, at those who are making them suffer.

    If England had a political party that embodied the type of open and welcoming civic nationalism evident in Scotland, then people could have voted for an actual positive preference instead of merely voting to inflict damage on ‘the establishment’.

    It’s a shame that Britain didn’t vote to remain while putting Brussels’ anti-democratic technocrats on notice by explicitly stating that a democratic social component to the European Union was going to be pushed for and fought for.

    Corbyn as leader of UK Labour could have been at the forefront of such a campaign. Both the English and Scottish Greens alongside Plaid Cymru and the SNP would also have been willing and intergral parts of such a campaign.

    But now I suspect the UK will be ‘made an example of’ in a similar though not identical way to how Greece was ‘made an example of’ – Brussels will be seeking to send an unequivocal message to any other country that might be thinking of opting out.

    Long comment I know. If you got this far, here’s a link to the thoughts of Yanis Varoufakis (ex finance minister for Greece) on the whole Brexit affair. Worth a read.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/brexit-britain-disintegrating-eu-yanis-varoufakis

    • RedLogix 7.1
      25 June 2016 at 2:23 pm

      I’m damned pleased to read Varoufakis link above:

      I campaigned for a radical remain vote reflecting the values of our pan-European Democracy in Europe Movement (DiEM25). I visited towns in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, seeking to convince progressives that dissolving the EU was not the solution.

      I argued that its disintegration would unleash deflationary forces of the type that predictably tighten the screws of austerity everywhere and end up favouring the establishment and its xenophobic sidekicks.

      • Colonial Viper 7.1.1
        25 June 2016 at 3:58 pm

        The only way to have saved Greece was for Varoufakis and Syriza to exit the Euro in an unstructured way, crashing the Euro.

        Keep it the way it is and keep bleeding your people day after day for the next many thousand days.

    • Draco T Bastard 7.2
      26 June 2016 at 12:31 pm

      The horror of these developments, from which Britain cannot be shielded by Brexit…

      Actually, it could but only if Britain reconfigured its financial system and stopped allowing private banks to create money, set its exchange rate as a function of trade and introduced a UBI. If they did that then it wouldn’t matter what any other country was doing.

      This does, of course, apply to every country. Those institutions (IMF, World Bank, WTO, etc) that have been causing so much damage to the global economy would disappear as they simply would not be needed any more.

    • john 7.3
      26 June 2016 at 2:03 pm

      Didn’t the Spanish just say they would veto Scotland’s entry to the EU. Something to do with Basque separatists.
      Also there is a large proportion of the money spent in Scotland is actually generated by the rest of the UK (England, Wales and NI).
      Scotland leave, I don’t think the UK will give them the soft partially funded option of last referendum, it could be.
      Only 15% of North Sea oil
      NO money from Westminster
      Border control
      NO British passport recognition
      No currency
      No shared embassies, UN representation etc.
      Only Scottish military units as they stand NOW….No funding to keep them going.
      No NATO
      No trade links via London
      etc etc

      • Colonial Viper 7.3.1
        26 June 2016 at 2:14 pm

        Only 15% of North Sea oil

        If the sea territory was divided up in the standard international way, Scotland would get most of the UK’s remaining North Sea Oil.

        As for border control, defence etc. If Ireland can manage it I’m sure the Scotts can too. And NATO seems happy to take on true basket cases like Latvia and Estonia. So Scotland should be a no brainer.

        Their GDP and population is a step up from NZ.

        Proviso: the Scots will be fine if they adopt their own currency; if they joined the Euro Zone they will be stuffed.

        • john 7.3.1.1
          26 June 2016 at 3:12 pm

          All very expensive things to implement.
          North sea oil was built by the UK, including Scotland, it is a business, not a territorial claim. This will be litigated in international courts, mean while Scotland get nothing.
          Cost upon cost for currency, embassies, etc
          Also their failure to admit that Westminster subsidised the Scottish economy for decades, thanks to their Labour MP’s.

        • billmurray 7.3.1.2
          27 June 2016 at 7:04 pm

          I do not believe the Scottish or Irish political leadership in their comment about breaking up the British Union, it bluff . The powerhouse economy in Britain is the English and Welsh one’s.
          Without the English /Welsh economies the welfare and social services in Scotland and Ireland would take a real beating.

          They need England and Wales more than England and Wales need them.

  8. RedLogix 8
    25 June 2016 at 12:39 pm

    Too soon to tell.

    The consequences of this will play out over years, and reading the threads and articles this morning there are far too many balls in play to predict what will happen. Certainly Scotland may well go for independence. We forget also that Ireland remains a member of the EU and now faces a full customs border with Northern Ireland. The City of London may not actually split from the UK, but the desire to do so will remain strong and destabilising.

    As for the rest of the UK, I suspect they are about to discover what happens when a small island with 60+ million people and no visible means of support cast themselves adrift.

    Personally I still suspect this may not yet get through the UK Parliament. On the other hand a lot will depend on the EU and it’s responses; which so far don’t look terribly conciliatory.

    • Rocco Siffredi 8.1
      25 June 2016 at 1:33 pm

      “As for the rest of the UK, I suspect they are about to discover what happens when a small island with 60+ million people and no visible means of support cast themselves adrift.”

      What planet are you on? The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world, its not in anyway being ‘cast adrift’.

      “We forget also that Ireland remains a member of the EU and now faces a full customs border with Northern Ireland.”

      The common travel area has been in place since 1923, why the sudden need for a full customs border when there hasn’t been one for a hundred years?

      • RedLogix 8.1.1
        25 June 2016 at 1:53 pm

        Fifth largest it may be, but close to 80% of it is ‘service industry’. Business services and finance are close to 30%. Agriculture and manufacturing are a fraction of their former selves.

        And it now faces the prospect of needing to negotiate a whole raft of trade deals on a stand-alone basis. Scotland and Ireland will distance themselves from this. The City of London will seek ways to undermine it. None of the chicken entrails look good.

        It is a much diminished UK this morning, and I doubt that slogans like “Making Britain Great Again” are going to cut much mustard.

        The entire Brexit campaign was underpinned on a revolt against uncontrolled movement over the past decade. Logically if Ireland remains a full EU member, and the British want to stop immigration from the EU, there will have to be a border. Fences and all that.

        • Paul 8.1.1.1
          25 June 2016 at 2:00 pm

          London to Lose Tens of Thousands of Jobs After Brexit

          ‘A number if large companies, particularly banks, are likely to pack up at least some of their workers and move them out of London now that the U.K. has voted to exit the EU. In all, the city that has long been considered the financial capital of Europe could lose as many as 40,000 workers in the wake of Brexit.
          Much of the exodus could come from the big U.S. banks. Foreign financial firms were some of the remain camp, saying the consequences of voting to leave the EU would make London a less advantageous place to do business. Goldman Sachs spent at least $500,000 helping to fund the remain campaign. Goldman has 6,000 employees in London. It hadn’t said how many it may move out if the vote went for “leave.”’

          http://fortune.com/2016/06/24/london-brexit-jobs/

          Britain’s financial sector reels after Brexit bombshell

          Britain’s 2.2 million financial industry workers face years of uncertainty and the risk of thousands of job cuts after the country voted to quit the European Union, an upheaval that threatens London’s dominance of finance.
          The ‘Vote Leave’ campaign fronted by a slew of Conservative lawmakers and financial industry veterans claimed victory over its ‘Britain Stronger in Europe’ rival, after 52 percent of Britons voted to support their plan to leave the 28-nation club.
          The news hammered the stock values of banks from mainland Europe to Wall Street giants with large operations in London, pushing job security fears to levels unseen since the financial crisis of 2008.

          http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-banks-idUKKCN0Z92G6

          • RedLogix 8.1.1.1.1
            25 June 2016 at 2:14 pm

            Hard to have much sympathy for outfits like Goldman Sachs, but in the long term they will probably trim their London office back to a local operation.

            In many ways I could argue this is a good thing if it had been part of a considered political transformation, one that had a plan to diminish the power to the elites and promote an economy built on intelligent, sustainable and people-centered principles.

            Just kicking out the props and letting it go in free-fall ensures entropy will do it’s work. In the long-run it may all work out fine; but the short-term is now uncertain and risky.

            • Rocco Siffredi 8.1.1.1.1.1
              25 June 2016 at 3:33 pm

              ” In the long-run it may all work out fine; but the short-term is now uncertain and risky.”

              Any different to being part of the EU where half the countries have massive structural problems, huge unemployment and zombies running the show?

              The future is always uncertain, even when it appears a sure thing.

        • Rocco Siffredi 8.1.1.2
          25 June 2016 at 3:30 pm

          “Fifth largest it may be, but close to 80% of it is ‘service industry’. Business services and finance are close to 30%”

          Yeap, the UK is good at that stuff. What makes you think its going to change much at all?

          “Agriculture and manufacturing are a fraction of their former selves.”

          Well, technically they are producing more food, and manufacturing more stuff than ever before, they have never been stronger in output terms. Its only as a proportion of GDP that they have ‘fallen’.

          “The entire Brexit campaign was underpinned on a revolt against uncontrolled movement over the past decade. Logically if Ireland remains a full EU member, and the British want to stop immigration from the EU, there will have to be a border. Fences and all that.”

          That can be solved very easily, Ireland can just rejoin the UK.

          • RedLogix 8.1.1.2.1
            25 June 2016 at 4:02 pm

            What makes you think its going to change much at all?

            What makes you think it will stay the same? As you say above the future is always uncertain and that is an argument which cuts both ways. Most people, and the markets especially, read this Brexit as greatly increasing the uncertainty.

            Life is not necessarily tidily symmetric; for instance look at how easy it is to get into a marriage, and how very messy it can be to get out of it. And how much worse off everyone usually is afterwards.

            That can be solved very easily, Ireland can just rejoin the UK.

            Maybe you’d want to run that past the Irish first.

            • Colonial Viper 8.1.1.2.1.1
              25 June 2016 at 4:22 pm

              Life is not necessarily tidily symmetric; for instance look at how easy it is to get into a marriage, and how very messy it can be to get out of it. And how much worse off everyone usually is afterwards.

              Do you mean financially worse off? Ask around your divorced friends and associates. Ask how many of them would be keen to rewind the clock and go back to their old relationships given the chance. Or whether they prefer the new life that they had to build with sweat and tears after they left their partners.

              Frankly, the “uncertainty” that the financial market elites are complaining about is only exactly what the British working class have had to cope with for the last 40 years. So welcome to the club.

              • Ad …
                25 June 2016 at 5:09 pm

                I’m not sure about the analogy to actual marriage and divorce, but as Red said it’s hard to have sympathy for bankers.

                There’s a few consequences that will need to be managed, which the Mayor of London will be aware of.
                If the City loses some of its previous power, there’s a few things to watch for:
                – deflation of the real estate market in London
                – deflation of the services sector as Red mentions
                – deflation of the development industry
                – deflation of the banking and financial services industry itself
                – deflation of the insurance industry

                In short, the FIRE economy.

                I’m sure a smart government will seek to overcome this.
                Maybe they can see a gradual weaning off this FIRE economy.
                Maybe Farage and Boris are just soft old commies who are willing the wholesale restructure of the economy.

                But I don’t think so. There’s no evidence of a plan, no evidence Boris or Farage really have the interests of a coherent society or country, no evidence really that there will be a conscious managed change to the economy.

                This is no liberation.

            • Peter Swift 8.1.1.2.1.2
              25 June 2016 at 5:46 pm

              “That can be solved very easily, Ireland can just rejoin the UK.”

              “Maybe you’d want to run that past the Irish first.”

              While you’re at it, run a unified Ireland past the Ulster men. The idea of N Ireland uniting with Eire is laughable.
              The thought of the protestant majority agreeing to give up hundreds of years of history and regional self determination to remain British doesn’t compute.
              Chose a united Ireland because of a differing opinion over European union membership. It will never happen.

              • D'Esterre …
                25 June 2016 at 11:40 pm

                Peter Swift: “Chose a united Ireland because of a differing opinion over European union membership. It will never happen.”

                Be careful: famous last words maybe? A good chunk, presumably, of the Protestant majority has voted Remain. If they value the EU so much, union with the Republic may be their only option. Though I suppose they could emigrate to the UK. While it’s still possible….

          • D'Esterre 8.1.1.2.2
            25 June 2016 at 11:18 pm

            Rocco Siffredi: “Ireland can just rejoin the UK.”
            That’d go down with the Irish like a bucket of cold sick. Slightly more likelihood now of a vote by the six counties to unify with the rest of Ireland. The desire for a united Ireland remains a live issue.

  9. Greg 9
    25 June 2016 at 1:45 pm

    If the EU Commission breaks its own rules on UKs Brexit, just out of spite, wont it hurry up the EU’s own breakup. A lawful reputation is everything, and once trust in a legal entity is in question, its finished!

    Otherwise, its business as usual, this is just the kick of whistle,

    • Colonial Viper 9.1
      25 June 2016 at 3:54 pm

      A lawful reputation is everything, and once trust in a legal entity is in question, its finished!

      Nonsense. You’re not that naive. From groundless sanctions against Russia to supporting fascists in the Ukraine, to greenlighting the wealthy destruction of Libya, to helping the US take down an Ecuadorean presidential plane suspected of hiding Edward Snowden, the EU has been full of shit forever.

  10. Paul 10
    25 June 2016 at 2:15 pm

    It’s all very confusing……

    U.S. financial firms spent almost $3 million against ‘Brexit’

    ‘According to the Wall Street Journal, foreign “banks concentrated large chunks of their global operations in Britain” because it allowed them to “save on costs and build economies of scale.” But U.S. banks have threatened to relocate to Amsterdam or other European cities if the U.K. leaves the EU.
    Several of the biggest U.S. banks backed up these warnings with hefty donations to the Remain campaign, the lead proponents of Britain staying in the EU. According to the Telegraph, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan donated £500,000 (about $730,000) to the group “Britain Stronger in Europe” in the period before disclosure was mandated. Citigroup and Morgan Stanley donated £250,000 each, according to the U.K. Electoral Commission’s figures, as did Bloomberg. PricewaterhouseCoopers also donated £7,508.50 to Remain. In total, the U.S. companies donated £757,508.50 in the reporting period, plus £1 million beforehand — that’s about $2,576,000 USD total. In the reportable period, the Remain campaign raised £7,542,652, compared to the Leave campaign’s £14,180,425 (including loans totaling £6 million).
    Whether or not these American banks’ warnings of catastrophic consequences for the U.K. economy came from a place of charitable concern for America’s oldest ally, or the desire to protect their own bottom line, it’s clear that they felt it was worth investing a significant sum of money in the Remain campaign.

    http://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2016/06/22/u-s-financial-firms-spent-almost-3-million-against-brexit/

    • Bill Drees 10.1
      25 June 2016 at 9:57 pm

      Dublin will pitch to those banks to move their operations there.
      Scotland is proposing that it voted to remain in the EU and that’s it’s next referendum is to reinforce Remain in EU and to let England going its own merry/weird way into nowhere. Scotland too will be pitching for those London international banks to move to Glasgow/Edinburgh.
      Dublin and Glasgow/Edinburgh provide English speaking business, living and quality schooling bases for international businesses that want a toe-hold in the EU.

  11. Paul 11
    25 June 2016 at 2:20 pm

    It’s all very confusing……

    ‘Eurozone crosses Rubicon as Portugal’s anti-euro Left banned from power

    ‘Constitutional crisis looms after anti-austerity Left is denied parliamentary prerogative to form a majority government.
    Portugal has entered dangerous political waters. For the first time since the creation of Europe’s monetary union, a member state has taken the explicit step of forbidding eurosceptic parties from taking office on the grounds of national interest.
    Anibal Cavaco Silva, Portugal’s constitutional president, has refused to appoint a Left-wing coalition government even though it secured an absolute majority in the Portuguese parliament and won a mandate to smash the austerity regime bequeathed by the EU-IMF Troika.
    ‘He deemed it too risky to let the Left Bloc or the Communists come close to power, insisting that conservatives should soldier on as a minority in order to satisfy Brussels and appease foreign financial markets.
    Democracy must take second place to the higher imperative of euro rules and membership.’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11949701/AEP-Eurozone-crosses-Rubicon-as-Portugals-anti-euro-Left-banned-from-power.html

    • Ad 11.1
      25 June 2016 at 3:05 pm

      The Spanish Left parties are making a point about not talking to each other and gifting government to the other side, even after the old lot failed to function and were essentially fired. A new election looms, and still the left struggle to sort their shit out. No conspiracy, just humans.

      • Paul 11.1.1
        25 June 2016 at 3:10 pm

        I’m not saying conspiracy.
        I’m trying to show the issue is quite complex and the EU is hardly on the side of the angels.

      • Colonial Viper 11.1.2
        25 June 2016 at 3:48 pm

        A new election looms, and still the left struggle to sort their shit out. No conspiracy, just humans.

        If the Left parties genuinely represented the interests of the bottom 50% of society then they might actually understand why they should work together.

        • Ad 11.1.2.1
          25 June 2016 at 4:07 pm

          That makes representation a perpetually receding chimaera.

          The two main leftie parties there go pretty folkie, pretty deep and the ex-commie party have plenty of history.

  12. Paul 12
    25 June 2016 at 2:28 pm

    It’s all very confusing……

    ‘EU Delays Decision on Spain and Portugal Over Deficit Breaches

    The European Commission has put off a contentious decision on imposing financial sanctions on Spain and Portugal for failing to bring their budget deficits within European Union rules, saying it would revisit the issue in July, after Spain had held a general election.’

    http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-delays-decision-on-spain-and-portugal-over-deficit-breaches-1463575825

  13. Paul 13
    25 June 2016 at 2:30 pm

    It’s all very confusing……

    ‘The callous cruelty of the EU is destroying Greece, a once-proud country
    For all of my adult life, support for the European Union has been seen as the mark of a civilised, reasonable and above all compassionate politician. It has guaranteed him or her access to leader columns, TV studios, lavish expense accounts and overseas trips.
    The reason for this special treatment is that the British establishment has tended to view the EU as perhaps a little incompetent and corrupt, but certainly benign and generally a force for good in a troubled world. This attitude is becoming harder and harder to sustain, as this partnership of nations is suddenly starting to look very nasty indeed: a brutal oppressor that is scornful of democracy, national identity and the livelihoods of ordinary people.
    The turning point may have come this week with the latest intervention by Brussels: bureaucrats are threatening to bankrupt an entire country unless opposition parties promise to support the EU-backed austerity plan.
    Let’s put the Greek problem in its proper perspective. Britain’s Great Depression in the Thirties has become part of our national myth. It was the era of soup kitchens, mass unemployment and the Jarrow March, immortalised in George Orwell’s wonderful novels and still remembered in Labour Party rhetoric.
    Yet the fall in national output during the Depression – from peak to trough – was never more than 10 per cent. In Greece, gross domestic product is already down about 13 per cent since 2008, and according to experts is likely to fall a further 7 per cent by the end of this year. In other words, by this Christmas, Greece’s depression will have been twice as deep as the infamous economic catastrophe that struck Britain 80 years ago.’

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/greece/9084305/The-callous-cruelty-of-the-EU-is-destroying-Greece-a-once-proud-country.html

  14. Paul 14
    25 June 2016 at 2:32 pm

    It’s all very confusing……

    Greece is being destroyed by ‘respectable’ fanatics

    ‘Greek democracy is being destroyed. Not by soldiers marching with insane slogans on their lips about the inevitable triumph of the German master race, international proletariat or global jihad, but by moderate men and women who think themselves immune to ideological frenzy. Greece’s enemies are novel, but no less frightening for that: extremists from the centre ground; the respectable running riot.
    Which ever way you cut it, Greece can’t win. The EU “bailout” cannot perform the first function of a rescue and save the sufferer from suffering. The Germans, with Dutch and Finnish assistance, are pushing Greece into a death spiral. The EU demands that Greece cuts 150,000 public jobs over three years – the equivalent in terms of population of our government taking 800,000 jobs from the UK public sector. Greek politicians must also accept without a quibble a 22% cut in the minimum wage and further reductions in the welfare state.
    Greece is in permanent recession. The economy shrank by 7% in the three months to December 2011. Tens of thousands of family businesses have gone bust. Europe is now offering to revive Greece by impoverishing it; to heal it by harming it. As Tacitus said of the Roman legions’ earlier attempt to impose a European union: “They make a desert and call it peace.”‘

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/feb/19/nick-cohen-greece-european-union-crisis

    • Colonial Viper 14.1
      25 June 2016 at 3:45 pm

      The EU demands that Greece cuts 150,000 public jobs over three years

      “The EU”…AKA unelected German and Belgian bureaucrats and central bankers earning six figures in Euros.

      • Paul 14.1.1
        25 June 2016 at 3:48 pm

        I’m finding it difficult to work out what it going on.
        Quite a complex story.

  15. Stephen Doyle 15
    25 June 2016 at 3:51 pm

    The best possible long term outcomes would be independence for Scotland, and a united Ireland.

    • Bill Drees 15.1
      25 June 2016 at 10:34 pm

      After the English Voted for Brexit, Independence for Scotland and a union in Ireland are imperatives rather than options or nice-to-haves.

      The English Nationalists have made their bed: they will now get the little country they want.

  16. Richardrawshark 16
    25 June 2016 at 5:31 pm

    A long time ago in a country far, far, away reigned a Proper Tory Twit, his name Was Ted Heath.

    You all know the rest of the story.

  17. swordfish 17
    25 June 2016 at 9:06 pm

    I’ve taken a look at the EU vote in various cities outside of Greater London – especially those in the Midlands and the North – and compared that with Party support in those same centres at the last UK Election. There hasn’t been time to do it in a comprehensive way, but I’ve chosen a variety of centres – both geographically and in terms of their degree of support for Brexit.

    The first notable facet is that Remain actually prevailed in quite a few cities north and west of London – easily in the old Lancashire Centres of Manchester (60%), Liverpool (58%), in the West Country’s Bristol (62%), in the Welsh capital of Cardiff (60%), and, naturally enough, in the Ivy-clad University cities of Oxford (70%) , Cambridge (74%) and the Red Brick university centres of Norwich (56%) and Exeter (55%).

    A range of other cities and local authorities in the Midlands and the North were pretty evenly split: Nottingham (de-facto Capital of the otherwise strongly Brexit-leaning East Midlands) 51/49 to Remain, Leicester a little further south, also 51/49 to Remain, Stockport in outer Manchester 52/48 Remain, Wirral on the other side of the Mersey from Liverpool 52/48 Remain, Yorkshire capital of Leeds (that Damned United) 50/50, Birmingham (many would say, Britain’s Second City) 50/50, Geordie Big Smoke Newcastle upon Tyne 49/51 in favour of Brexit, adjoining North Tyneside 47/53 Brexit, South Yorkshire’s old Steel capital Sheffield 49/51 Brexit, West Yorkshire’s Bradford 46/54 Brexit, and over the Pennines – Preston and Bury in Lancashire 53 and 54 respectively for Brexit, and the outer Merseyside urban sprawl of Knowsley and Warrington 52 and 54 for Brexit.

    So quite a few Centres north of London that were by no means fervent Brexiters.

    Having said that, very strong Leave sentiment in cities down the east coast – Boston 76 Leave, Grimsby 70, Hartlepool 70, Hull 68, Middlesborough 65, South Tyneside 62, Sunderland 61 – and in a lot of the poorer urban sprawl regions and smaller satellite cities on the periphery of the big Northern and Midlands centres – Tyneside’s Gateshead 57, Manchester’s Salford, Oldham, Rochdale, Bolton and Burnley (57, 61, 60, 58, 67 for Brexit respectively), Liverpool/Merseyside’s Rugby league strongholds Wigan 64 Leave, St Helens 58 Leave, urban Yorkshire’s (also Rugby league stronghold of) Wakefield 66 Brexit, and South Yorkshire’s Rotherham 68, Barnsley 68, Doncaster 69, Birmingham’s urban hinterland – Sandwell 67, Walsall 68, Dudley 68, Wolverhampton 63, and a range of small cities and towns on the outskirts of Nottingham and Derby: Mansfield 71, Chesterfield 60, Bolsover 71, and Ashfield 70.

    Also some deep pockets of Brexit support in the old Red strongholds of the Welsh valleys (54-62 Leave) and in some down-at-heal Welsh Ports – Newport 56, Port Talbot 57.

    So, I guess in many ways, the Central Cities of the Midlands and the North Vs the declining ‘Rust-Belt’ urban hinterlands.

    (Sorry, I’ll have to leave the Party Support vs EU vote for the next comment)

  18. swordfish 18
    25 June 2016 at 9:26 pm

    Dang ! Just tried to post a detailed overview of the geography of the EU vote – focussing on the cities of the North and the Midlands – but it seems to have disappeared out into the ether.

    Don’t think I can be bothered typing it all out again.

    Take home message was:

    Most of the big cities north of London either went for Remain (easily in some cases (Manchester 60%, Liverpool 58%) / marginally in others) or were fairly evenly split (some tending slightly towards Brexit). Leeds and Birmingham both 50/50, Nottingham 51/49 Remain, Sheffield 49/51 leave, for instance.

    But they contrasted, often significantly, with the declining ‘Rust Belt’ urban sprawls on the peripheries and in the hinterlands of these Large centres, as well as the East Coast port cities with their decimated fishing industries and port activity. These all went heavily (60-72%) for Brexit.

  19. swordfish 19
    26 June 2016 at 1:37 am

    Most of the Big Centres in the North and the Midlands went for Remain (either clearly – eg Manchester 60%, Liverpool 58%, – or marginally) or they were fairly evenly split (Leeds and Birmingham both 50/50, Nottingham 51 Remain, Sheffield 51 Leave, Newcastle 51 Leave).

    Views on the EU in these Leading Centres contrasted quite markedly with those in their hinterlands – the declining ‘Rust Belt’ urban sprawls and satellite cities on the periphery of the Big Centres (egs Oldham 61, Bolton 58, Rochdale 60, Burnley 67, Stoke 69, Wigan 64, Barnsley 68, Rotherham 68, Doncaster 69, Wakefield 66, Ashfield 70, Mansfield 71, urban West Midlands-Birmingham periphery 63-68 – all for Brexit). The declining East Coast Port cities with their decimated fishing industries (eg Hartlepool 70, Middlesborough 65, Hull 68, Grimsby 70, Boston 76) also went heavily for Brexit.

  20. dave 20
    26 June 2016 at 7:15 am

    in ,out ,exit ,stay ,leave, it doesn’t matter the bigger picture is we are all sitting on titanic levels of debt so moving the chair from starboard to the stern really isn’t going change the out come Britain is bankrupt, European banks are bankrupt brexit just shifts the deck chairs on the titanic.

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