Leader of the Opposition Christopher Luxon turned up to Parliament today and his media spin doctors will be hoping for some good photo opportunities to lift his popularity. But they will be asking a lot.
Tomorrow it will be ten months and 26 days since he became leader. Judith Collins was leader of the opposition for longer. Time will tell if he outlasts her.
The political tide has certainly turned in recent months, and since May National’s polling has gradually gone backward. There are signs that National is headed for a very difficult time in the near future. The United Kingdom has shown what a shit show conservative leadership can cause.
Unsurprisingly, there has been an upswing in speculation about how long Luxon will stay on as leader. The idea of his stepping down before the next election is gaining traction, despite there being no obvious candidate in the National Party who could do a better job than him.
So I polled a number of Trade Unionists who ranked Luxon as the 33rd best performer in the National Party. If it was not for a kind soul giving him a 1 he would have ranked 0 out of 5 for his performance.
I spoke to my mate Bruce who reckons that it’s only a matter of time before Luxon steps down. Bruce should know. He knows someone who knows someone who works in Parliament who thinks this is definitely going to happen.
Bruce reckons there are only two possible outcomes at the next election, neither of which will be attractive to Luxon. The first is that he loses, gets branded as a loser and gets knifed by the National caucus who cannot believe they are not in power. The second is that he wins. Then he has to work really hard and ringing chiefs of departments once a day and telling them to sort out their issues will not not be enough. And then when he fails he will get branded as a loser and gets knifed by the National caucus who cannot believe they are not in power.
There are so many problems building up steam at the moment, and yet National and Luxon look like they have run out of steam and ideas themselves. They have no policy, no costings, and offer no vision for the future.
When this happens, it’s normally a good idea to consider the political exit door earlier than waiting to be pushed out.