Bruce’s Reckons: The increased speculation about Chris Luxon quitting
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8:45 pm, October 25th, 2022 - 109 comments
Categories: Christopher Luxon, humour, national, same old national, Satire, The Standard -
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Leader of the Opposition Christopher Luxon turned up to Parliament today and his media spin doctors will be hoping for some good photo opportunities to lift his popularity. But they will be asking a lot.
Tomorrow it will be ten months and 26 days since he became leader. Judith Collins was leader of the opposition for longer. Time will tell if he outlasts her.
The political tide has certainly turned in recent months, and since May National’s polling has gradually gone backward. There are signs that National is headed for a very difficult time in the near future. The United Kingdom has shown what a shit show conservative leadership can cause.
Unsurprisingly, there has been an upswing in speculation about how long Luxon will stay on as leader. The idea of his stepping down before the next election is gaining traction, despite there being no obvious candidate in the National Party who could do a better job than him.
So I polled a number of Trade Unionists who ranked Luxon as the 33rd best performer in the National Party. If it was not for a kind soul giving him a 1 he would have ranked 0 out of 5 for his performance.
I spoke to my mate Bruce who reckons that it’s only a matter of time before Luxon steps down. Bruce should know. He knows someone who knows someone who works in Parliament who thinks this is definitely going to happen.
Bruce reckons there are only two possible outcomes at the next election, neither of which will be attractive to Luxon. The first is that he loses, gets branded as a loser and gets knifed by the National caucus who cannot believe they are not in power. The second is that he wins. Then he has to work really hard and ringing chiefs of departments once a day and telling them to sort out their issues will not not be enough. And then when he fails he will get branded as a loser and gets knifed by the National caucus who cannot believe they are not in power.
There are so many problems building up steam at the moment, and yet National and Luxon look like they have run out of steam and ideas themselves. They have no policy, no costings, and offer no vision for the future.
When this happens, it’s normally a good idea to consider the political exit door earlier than waiting to be pushed out.
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Why is Luxon so shit?
Makes Ardern look competent.
It's baffling.
Theory
He was shit at Air New Zealand as well. The Smiling Assasin got co-opted onto the board to get rid of him and the solution was to sideways Luxon into the National Party with a fast route to the leadership. Luxon's ego made it easy.
Key's departure from the board was pretty much as soon as Luxon had departed the building.
yes, luxon has already started going downhill. must be difficult to arrange photo ops without letting him speak.sort of like an old bald paris hilton(?)
I know it's bad to make judgements based on personal appearance, but I've always thought he looked like one of those weird hairless cats, and I don't know if voters are going to go for that.
There is a third possible outcome, which I reckon is perhaps the most likely. Luxon wins but then loses because he is knifed by the Kingmaker and then knifed by his own party for being knifed by the Kingmaker. Luxon will make Julius Caesar look like a con artist for being knifed and dying, politically speaking.
But he’s a Legend in His Own Lunchtime, you can find them anywhere!
He was struggling even more than usual in Question Time today. It turns out he can't say "NCEA". Clip from 3 mins:
https://ondemand.parliament.nz/parliament-tv-on-demand/?itemId=228903
You're right, Luxon repeatedly mangles a four-letter acronym – CEO was cLUX’s limit !
Error in the 6th paragraph… surely you mean "only a matter of time before Luxon steps down" ???
Oops now fixed – MS
In Luxon we truss.
Why would he quit before the next election, when it looks like he has a very good chance of becoming the PM?
Whiiiiizzzzzz!!!
You're expecting a lot from a man who can't even say "NCEA", Jimmy!
Quit? No. Dumped? Maybe.
The chances of Ardern getting dumped by Labour are zero. The chances of Luxon getting dumped by National are around 50-50.
It's not a matter of spin, just basic maths. Politics is ruthless, and all the polls have the same message: Ardern adds votes to Labour, Luxon subtracts votes from National. She is more popular than her party, he is less popular than his.
So if pundits like Bryce were analysing instead of imagining, they'd reach an obvious conclusion.
''Ardern adds votes to Labour, Luxon subtracts votes from National. She is more popular than her party, he is less popular than his.''
That's so true. Now, which one is more important – leader popularity or party popularity given the current political situation we are mired in?
Point missed.
The party vote is what matters. Leaders can increase it (Key, Ardern) or decrease it (Brash, Collins).
The comment you just replied to explained this, and in plain language.
Thankyou for that. I now see things clearly.
Witch Willis is waiting!
Might be comparatively smart – like Brownlee in the fruit & vege aisle – but no charisma, and outside political tragics, no name recognition.
Just going off the polls, there seems to be a pretty decent chunk of National supporters who don't have him as their preferred PM. His high point currently stands at just 29%, and that was in June. Since the Nats had their big unveiling of him, his popularity has gone back down to the mid-low 20s, and it seems like the strategy now is just to hide him from the public. Maybe they can get away with for the rest of the year, but we've got an election coming up, so he can't hide forever.
Bruce knows lots
https://twitter.com/SachaDylan/status/1585020496810487808
Christopher Luxon is to set up and donate to a social investment fund to investigate the development of a AI cyber presence to misrepresent him to media representatives, much as he does all by himself at present.
Nice piece of statire/parody(?) as to the situation and speculation currently surrounding Jacinda.
Is our PM even aware of the hollow "speculation currently surrounding her"?
Bet cLuxon’s minders would kill for publicity like that.
In Barry Soper we must trust. He asked his Labour contacts if Jacinda will resign at the upcoming party conference. The contact said they didn't know, but if Jacinda wins the election, it's highly unlikely she will see the new term out.
I take it from that party insiders have a very rough timeline about Jacinda's future intentions. You have to admit she's in a bind. She either leaves the party as a piker or a loser? She won't want the latter on her CV.
As for Luxon. The man both annoys and bores me. He's inconsequential. A monkey could guide National to victory at election time.
if Jacinda wins the election, it's highly unlikely she will see the new term out.
As predictions go, that's pretty weak.
3rd term PMs under MMP: Key quit. Clark didn't. Bolger dumped. So, 3 different outcomes.
Again, a reminder: Barry Soper did not predict the departure of John Key or Simon Bridges, among others. I suggest you seek betting advice elsewhere.
It's not a prediction. It's what Soper claims to have been told.
They do not even know if she will run or not, they know squat. What sort of contact is “the contact” – the only one who bothered to reply?
Yeah, it's called honesty. They could have made up some bs or misinformation.
Who knows, maybe their uncertainty is a ploy? I extrapolated what was said by the alleged contact and did my own speculations.
I wrote: ”I take it from that party insiders have a very rough timeline about Jacinda’s future intentions.”
Well it's honesty because they do not know. So no, it is not a ploy.
"party insiders"? nah, more like it's a case of "He knows someone who knows someone…" blah blah blah
"It's not a prediction. It's what Soper claims to have been told."
I wonder what else Soper's magik mirror had to say?
"you are looking old and tired. when did you last get a full nights sleep" and,"keep interveiwing your keyboard, its more reliable that your "contacts""
This is just so wrong.
Patricia Bremner and I have already agreed that this is a dog who sits all day on a letterbox out in the ruralies/boondocks. Some days he/she/it/they even wears a blue ribbon to really muster up support. We have not found the perfect dog breed from which to do a selection as we are keen to ensure that a repeat of Uffindog does not occur.
Yes, quite.
Call bullshit on that X Socialist. Recently the PM and Julia Gillard had a zoom conversation. The PM made it very clear that she has no intention of stepping down and intends to contest the next election in 2023. Media speculation is just wishful thinking, there is no basis to it.
She also said she never wanted to be PM. She also doesn't like the hard stuff. It's not her thing. EG.
1- Didn't front the parliamentary protesters.
2- Didn't visit Auckland during the lockdown.
3- She couldn't handle Mike Hosking unlike her other MPs.
4- She seems to have allowed her Maori caucus to much influence when it comes to policy.
Guess what's not bullshit, Louis? The PM has lots of hard stuff coming up, like the leaders debate. Hell, Hosking may even be a moderator.
You know she's been leader in two previous campaigns, don't you? With leaders' debates, including one moderated by Mike Hosking.
Yes, we get it, you have a fixed and unchanging view of the fluffy girlie who can't handle the tough stuff, and you dare not let evidence intrude.
''Yes, we get it, you have a fixed and unchanging view of the fluffy girlie who can't handle the tough stuff, and you dare not let evidence intrude.''
Don't come at that cheap narrative. I said she doesn't like the hard stuff. It's not her natural strength. But when pushed into a corner she handles herself alright as some of her exchanges in the house with Luxon have shown. However, if possible she makes a detour when she sees any hard corners coming up.
Rubbish, stop making stuff up and saying "Don't come at that cheap narrative” is hypocritical.
Absolute crap. Jacinda regularly (always) wipes the floor of a hapless Luxon during QT.
And today Grant Robertson did the same.
It's only a question of time before Luxon gets rolled. Willis is waiting!
Well, who really likes “the hard stuff” – day in, day out – apart from alkies?
Our PM isn't everyone's 'cup of tea', but she's hard-working and has dealt with some tough stuff quite well, imho.
https://theconversation.com/three-reasons-why-jacinda-arderns-coronavirus-response-has-been-a-masterclass-in-crisis-leadership-135541
2. Tour the country during lockdown??
3. Ha ha ha!
4. "Seems"? Powerful argument!
The Leaders Debate? Leader .v. Loser – looking forward to that!
1-Good decision
No, it cost her votes. Allowed the protesters a moral victory. Confirmed her lack guts for the hard stuff.
2. Tour the country during lockdown?
It's called supporting the people you lead in a time of crisis.
First PM I believe who refused to front regularly with Hosking. She has appeared on light commercial stations who ask hard questions like: How's Neve?
4. "Seems"? Powerful argument!
I'm not in caucus, so I can only go by the legislation and pay outs. ''Seems'' seems to be an appropriate word to use.
The Leaders Debate? Leader .v. Loser – looking forward to that!
I wouldn't be in a hurry, Robert. Broken dreams hurt.
It's like you are the one dreaming X Socialist. It would be irresponsible for any leader to "tour the country" during a deadly pandemic, particularly at a time when there were no vaccines. Supporting people meant implementing measures to not spread Covid19 ie lockdown.
You’re making up a lot of BS again.
The PM recently appeared on Morning Report and was questioned about the trouncing of some Labour-endorsed Mayoral candidates, Three Waters, low turnout at Local Elections, and especially grilled about Kris Faafoi heading a lobbying form without a ‘cooldown period’ by Guyon Espiner. Hardly fluffy stuff.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018862019/top-stories-for-monday-10-october-2022 [first 9 min]
Rein in your trolling or I’ll do it for you.
Morning report is left leaning. Yes, there was a tense moment. But It's not Mike Hosking. She would have had a much harder time with him. I did however enjoy the korero that followed the interview. Nothing wrong there.
You’re making up a lot of BS again.
No, you just keep saying that by default.
Rein in your trolling or I’ll do it for you.
I'm not trolling. I'm just giving some unpalatable truths that people don't like because they can't argue against reality. Start from my first post and see how things unfold. You should be saving me from a gang-bang.
[Is the AM Show also ‘left-leaning’? Here you are:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/10/local-elections-jacinda-ardern-defends-labour-endorsing-defeated-mayoral-candidates-says-it-s-not-sign-of-2023-election-results.html [same day as the Morning Report one]
I’m getting fed up with your vague and sloppy BS comments that are unpalatable and undigestable, your anti-Labour rhetoric, your ongoing anti-Labour reckons that suck up way too much oxygen here, et cetera. For example, I have not forgotten the BS you recently spouted about Hep C, statins, and other stuff you didn’t seem to know much about.
It is ok if you’re one of those who think that the sun shines out of Hosking’s orifice. It suggests that you’re an talk-back zombie who cannot think for himself.
Here’s an easy one for you: provide 2 links with time stamps to interviews on ‘light commercial stations’, whatever these are, with the PM in which she was asked about Neve and no ‘hard[er] questions’, just light fluffiness and nothing else.
Don’t disappoint me – Incognito]
"X Socialist" is trolling hard out.
I feel I know this troll, but under a different alias…
…who could it be now..?
Mod note
"X" is nothing but disappointing…
DNFTT
''Is the AM Show also ‘left-leaning’? Here you are:''
I don't know. Probably. All I know is it's not Mike Hosking.
''For example, I have not forgotten the BS you recently spouted about Hep C, statins, and other stuff you didn’t seem to know much about.'''
Notice I didn't reply to you? That's because it's a waste of time. In my answer I gave you two bits of information that could have be useful at some stage for you. Oxylipins for example. Flaxseed reduces that to youthful levels in older adults ( Which I assume you are). You just love to point score and troll. You aren't interested in debate. And it was obvious to me you know nothing about medicine.
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-22-10-2022/#comment-1917376
''It is ok if you’re one of those who think that the sun shines out of Hosking’s orifice. It suggests that you’re an talk-back zombie who cannot think for himself.''
I listen to him because he is one of the few commentators ( apart from economists) who actually understands economic issues and states the obvious.
Here’s an easy one for you: provide 2 links with time stamps to interviews on ‘light commercial stations’, whatever these are, with the PM in which she was asked about Neve and no ‘hard[er] questions’, just light fluffiness and nothing else.
Don’t disappoint me – Incognito]
Sure. let's see, it was just after the PM said she wouldn't be appearing with Hosking again unless it was for something major. I heard one interview, and a promo for another ( I later listened). Tell you what, tell me what you had for lunch 3 months ago on a Thursday.? You can't and you know darn well I can't. It's just another of your cunning ploys.
BTW- seen this. It would seem I know what I'm talking about.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/bay-of-plenty/300720859/hundreds-gather-in-thoe-country-to-protest-desecration-of-back-country-huts
[No problem. Let’s start with a short educational ban of 2 weeks, shall we? That’s rhetorical, BTW. However, I have a strong suspicion it will be followed quickly by a longer one when you come back. You seem strangely familiar with my “cunning ploys” and usually forewarned is forearmed, if you’re a smart operator that is – Incognito]
Mod note
The PM is world renowned for taking on the hard stuff – mosque shooting terrorism and lockdown border management.
The Hosking-moth burned it's wings on the Ardern-lamp.
How is this difficult to understand?
The fact is Ardern is PM and your opinion that the PM "doesn't like the hard stuff" is patently untrue.
Why should the PM front a hostile lynch mob that wanted to hang her, every other politician, including the media as well? Do you not understand the purpose of a lockdown? it was to prevent the spread of a deadly virus and no one is supposed to go visiting any one during a lockdown.
The PM handled Mike Hosking very well in fact, he struggled to land the hits he was after. The PM adjusted her media schedule and said she would go on his show if needed instead of a regular slot, in the end he said he didn't want her on his show.
Labour has the largest Maori caucus in history and why shouldn't all caucus members have influence when in govt? Are you a racist?
You haven't seen Jacinda Ardern in action have you? she doesn't have any problems debating her opponents. Have you watched question time yet? It's Luxon that is going to struggle and flounder.
Ignore it Louis. It doesn't do rational thinking. Suspect it's from the dark side of the Internet.
yuk, who wants to handle hosking? man cant even dress himself..no proper m.p.s meet the pootesters. didnt visit auckland. boohoo, do you want your hand held.
"pootesters"
Harsh!
Didn't front the parliamentary protesters.
They had threatened to kill her – her security would probably have vetoed it even if she had wanted to meet such unappealing specimens.
Didn't visit Auckland during the lockdown.
Auckland is much less important than it likes to think.
She couldn't handle Mike Hosking unlike her other MPs.
On the contrary, she routinely thrashed him, but he was, (and remains) too thick to realize how thoroughly he was owned.
She seems to have allowed her Maori caucus too much influence when it comes to policy.
She does seem to have allowed reforms through without much public discussion – true of most enacted change under her government.
Hard to be 'surrounded' by a chump wielding a noodle.
Will anyone be bothered tracing the origin of the “PM to resign” pump up? If it is not natzo “two track” dirty politics as per usual, it would be a major surprise.
Going on Jacinda Ardern’s previous, she would quite likely have a plan A) i.e. let people know well in advance.
But I guess there is always plan B for any politician)–do a ‘sirkey’, a runner in other words! to “spend more time with the fam”–but the usual suspects will be waiting a while I suspect with the current PM.
I think the problem for Labour at the moment is that National could put up a pet rock as a leader and Labour would still be in trouble.
Labour's strategy seems to be to find every possible unpalatable issue to push, and do that as hard as possible.
The only rationale I can think of is that they seriously believe they are going to lose anyway, so hope to get as much of their stuff through as possible in the hope that National won't repeal it all when they get into power.
I think your summation is spot on. The Fair Pay Agreement is the latest move that beggars belief.
What's wrong with it?
See above pet rocks and monkeys have no place as a candidate for NP leadership. The blue ribbon wearing dog is it.
Who do rocks and monkeys represent in the tribal NP anyway?
Perhaps a stone represents
“Labour finding every unpalatable issue”
This movement on multiple fronts has left the opposition scrambling to select the most important target. The straw poll of 82% against tax cuts must worry the monkeys and rocks. Truss sent that policy to the shredder.
Remind me again what Liz Truss has to do with NZ?
Didn't Luxon go and ask her for advice?
Just that Luxon thought her policies were simply spiffing, top-hole yah!
What do the sock-puppet known as "Liz Truss" and the sock-puppet, "Chris Luxon" share, X Socialist?
A song-sheet.
This: https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10162379389804358&set=a.10151208068464358
They both know what just happened to Liz will be happening to no-show Jacinda next year? Talking of leadership, Robert. who do you pick as Jacinda's successor? I can only see Chris Hipkins as the logical choice. My bet though is Labour goes with Robbo.
I guess, X, you believe you are amusing.
I find your "handle" interesting; would you have us believe you were a "socialist" but you saw through the nonsense and now align with the wise-ones; Seymour et all?
Surely, you jest?
''I guess, X, you believe you are amusing.''
If you don't want comedy, don't invite me to do standup.
''I find your "handle" interesting; would you have us believe you were a "socialist" but you saw through the nonsense and now align with the wise-ones; Seymour et all?''
More a swing voter. Mostly Labour, but leaning more to whatever party had the most policies to help the little guy out. However, I will never vote Labour again after this lot. The first term was OK, but then Labour put ear muffs on and has refused to listen to peoples concerns.
I am seriously considering the Epsom wonder boy. Not so much for his policies, but for his defence of democracy. I see little of that coming from National.
And you, Robert? True Green? They may be a spent force next year.
"who do you pick as Jacinda's successor"
Ummm…Jacinda.
There ya go, Speculation Boy.
As to The Greens – strength to strength!
You won't be crowing next year, Council Boy. I'm for Chris all the way. For some strange reason I like the guy. He and Stu Nash belong in National. I will be thinking of you at election time. Pity I won't be here for some, as Aunty would say, frank and vigorous discussion. You deserve my worst.
Why won't you be here at election time?
Yours is a familiar, somewhat hackneyed style, X but no matter. Your confidence is misplaced, imo, as it was in Todd, but you have to at least try to maintain some peppy support for your team, even when they're rubbish 🙂
Lol.. see above.
You'll get tired of your own shit posting?
Passé may be a better word. Technology is a great tool, Robert. Especially plagiarism software used in a different way.
"Leaning more to whatever party had the most policies to help the little guy out"
Then you definitely will NOT be voting for either National and Act, but you are inclined to contradict yourself… "I am seriously considering the Epsom wonder boy. Not so much for his policies"
So you arrived here after deciding not to support Labour staying in government … as someone who once lent to the left.
A perfect role model for a pied piper leading those losing faith in Labour away from them to a new place …
But not so bold as to suggest the tribal enemy National, just ACT for “free speech, democracy, anti-woke, not pro Treaty/indigenous peoples rights, one nation/one law for all” … coz all their seats are inside NACT.
Once we see through that, try TOP (wastes a leftish vote) or NZF (if you are allowed to by your handlers because of the risk of yet another LNZ coalition supported by Greens).
You'd have loved the House this afternoon – the Fair Pay Agreement Bill passed its third reading.
Now that's really helping the little guy out!
It's so convoluted it will be hard to enforce. And is a 10% majority for action democracy? What about the other 90%.? Better to do something with the tax brackets and get rid of the EV rebate scheme that is millions in the red.
Bull. You don't know what you are talking about X Socialist.
One of National's main tax policies is indexing tax brackets to inflation.
I can't see this policy as being particularly unpopular with anyone as it seems intrinsically fair, and every tax payer has the potential to benefit from the policy at some point.
Contrast that with Labour who seems to want to introduce all sorts of innovative ways to extract money from the taxpayer even if the methods may not be technically labelled a tax but rather a levy or similar. And this at a time of high inflation when people are already feeling under pressure.
If Labour really wants to do this sort of thing, it would be a lot more acceptable when inflation is low and the economy is good. But I can't understand why they would want to do it in the current environment when they are certain to get blowback, especially with an election around the corner.
Except if there was no income insurance imagine meeting mortgage (or rent) payments if one of the partners was not working … .
That said the problem with ACC is that it does not cover sickness, and income insurance does not cover longer term sickness.
As I mentioned above, the merits of the idea are one thing, and is worth discussing. There is a number of cons as well as benefits that need to be considered.
However, the timing is probably the main issue at the moment. Having an additional cost imposed on workers and businesses while interest rates, rents, and living costs generally are rapidly increasing is unlikely to be very popular.
Also, it is highly debatable whether such a scheme is even necessary right now given our tight labour market meaning that most people unlucky enough to be made redundant should quickly be able to get another job.
It probably would be a lot more politically acceptable to the electorate if the social insurance concept was flagged as a topic for public debate, including the acceptable economic conditions for such a levy to be introduced.
Delaying the introduction of the scheme until there was more unemployment has its own problems (paying out money).
And if there is a delay, a solution for sickness has to be found (long covid and all).
I don't disagree that there is room for debate about the scheme itself. I can see both positives and negatives with it. And, you may be right from the point of view of the efficiency of the scheme.
But that really isn't the points I am trying to discuss.
My comments are more to do with the political acceptability of the scheme, and whether it is worth the political risk trying to rush it through now in the current economic conditions.
It is hideously intrinsically unfair if they don't bring the tax brackets up to date first. Sure once this is done indexing as a way of keeping rates current and fair could could be looked at. I think the indexing regime needs looking at too so that it realistically captures where rises affect the general populace.
So a fair bit of work to do first though.
no, the real problem is that labours best weapon(apart from jacinda) is nats leader. so, either the nats have to change leader again, or hope that jacinda is as gutless as johnkey. so, thats why granny is having a run of "whens jacinda going to quit". its a change from their normal run of tired old geezers yelling at clouds.
Brilliant writing Micky. I vote that you submit it to the Herald. Then we could all pile in on the comments section confirming your views.
Stories about Labour Party women leaders having UN jobs to go to, so that a National Party man can get a job locally, are as common as stories about in flight behaviour and management of it on various airlines. Something relevant to those with Herald subscriptions – scheduling use of planned tax cut money for foreign holidays.
yes, add one part u.n. hater, two parts misogyny, one part greed, half bake it, and voila! serve with a maga hat and some koolaid.
I definitely recognise that recipe.
The scuttlebutt is serving its purpose, aided by Rachael Smalley, Dr Cravat, Heather Stupidity-Allan and her grandfather, and now Peter Dunne.
Dunne's most famous act in politics was to get caught in a honey trap laid by former Daily Mail reporter, Andrea Vance. Today, apparently, he demanded Jacinda Ardern tell us one way or another if she is resigning or not.
The wingnuts and their strategies, eh?
peter dunne, whos last political act(?) was to abruptly withdraw halfway through an election when the numbers were against him. he is the last worm(see what I did) to demand any confirmation from anybody else.been to more parties than the noise control. achieved far less.
Three things not good for Luxon right now (I'm being objective…)
1. He is a carryover from the previous Nat Leadership (Good fellow Empire). Haven't seen how the new guard want to do things differently yet but Luxon must be a thorn in their side.
2. Said old guard seemingly saw in Luxon a John Key rebirth. Fantastic for their blinkered eyes but the rest of New Zealand ended the honeymoon with Key a long time ago.
3. The microchip inserted into Luxon that proclaims tax cuts for the rich as the fix for NZ is now a dumb mantra, given the hard evidence from Truss. Yet, seemingly, National has no other mantras and risks looking stupid if it turned around that policy anyway, because they've been so determined about it.