Business confidence verses business certainty

Written By: - Date published: 11:13 am, August 31st, 2018 - 37 comments
Categories: articles, business, capitalism, Donald Trump, Economy, Free Trade, jacinda ardern, john key, labour, Media, Unions, wages - Tags: ,

Lately the news has been all doom and gloom about business confidence.

The gloom does not match the data. Rather it seems to be a fit of pique by a sector that is historically supportive of National and resentful that power has been taken away from them. The resent is peaking because of the “threat” of a living wage being implemented and because of an attempt to modestly walk back the anti union policies of the last Government.  If these really are a threat to our business sector we are in big trouble.

But falling business confidence is a phenomenon and something the Government is aware of. It is the reason that Jacinda Ardern spoke recently to the business sector.

She was more gentle with her analysis and rather than criticising business for taking an ideological position she said that the lack of confidence was due to uncertainty.  In her speech she said this:

When you line up business confidence with key economic performance measures over the last two governments there appears to be an inverse relationship between business confidence and the actual performance of the economy.

For instance, average business confidence scores under the Clark/Cullen Government were much lower than the Key/English Government, despite Clark and Cullen delivering higher average growth, lower unemployment, lower debt, larger surpluses and stronger wage growth than their successors.

We appear to have inherited a similar conundrum, we’ve run a strong surplus, have the best net international investment position ever recorded, stable and low interest rates forecast for some time which ought to spur investment and the lowest unemployment rate in a decade.

That then begs the question, if it’s not the overall economic indicators that is driving these figures, then what is? I have discussed this question with both business leaders and representatives, colleagues and officials. The answers I have had back are almost as diverse as the groups I have asked.

Some of those issues I will touch on today, but the overall sense I have is that it would be wrong to over simplify this survey and just call it out as being about party politics, just as it would be wrong to ignore it. It is telling us something, and that something is probably most accurately captured not by confidence, but certainty.

She is right but it is uncertainty created by negative framing and talking down of the economy.  Shades of the last Labour Government’s winter of discontent.

And there has been some scathing commentary from Mitch Harris at Radiolive about confidence surveys.

Another meaningless Business Confidence Survey has been released by ANZ Bank.

These surveys are used to beat up the Government, and they can become self-fulfilling prophecies. But what are they?

They are really two surveys. They ask business managers and owners what they think of their own company’s prospects, and they ask them how they think the overall economy will perform. Most of the recipients say their own business is doing okay, but the wider economy is going to hell in a handcart.

What would they especially know about the wider economy? Running a company is not the same as running an economy. What the survey is really telling us is that a sample of mainly National voters don’t like the Government.

Most of these so-called business leaders are just bureaucrats who have climbed the greasy pole in a large corporate.

ANZ plays the bad cop; with Sir John Key as its chairperson, it constantly releases these irrelevant surveys as some sort of economic canary in the coalmine, telling us that these exceptionally gifted business people are warning us that the Government has got it all wrong.

With Kiwibuild and an intensive housing construction boom in Auckland getting ready to start the lack of confidence seems to be misplaced.  And Herald business commentator, Brian Fallow, who is hardly a left winger, agrees.  From his article in this morning’s Herald:

Whether or not it works as outreach to a grumpy business community, the Prime Minister’s speech on Tuesday deserves to be read.

She makes some fair points.

The first is that the despondent state of business sentiment is really not warranted by the economic indicators.

Jacinda Ardern did not labour the point in a get-a-grip sort of way. So let me.

The cycle is getting long in the tooth and the best of it is behind us but the economy is hardly falling off a cliff.

Skill shortages and other capacity constraints are biting in some sectors. Profit margins are under pressure, the labour market is tightening and the migration cycle peaked a year ago.

But the population and workforce gain from that source is still very high by historical standards and the Government is working on plans for regional skill shortage lists, recognising the shortcomings of national ones.

For consumer-facing businesses, the unhealthy combination of a wealth effect from runaway house price inflation and a negative household saving rate is being replaced, at least partly, by some actual cash income growth.

And not just from the families package which kicked in two months ago. The number of people employed grew 3.7 per cent in the year ended June and their collective weekly gross earnings were up 5.5 per cent.

Some export commodity prices may be wobbling, but the overall terms of trade — the ratio of export to import prices — is at the most favourable level on record, boosting national income. And the exchange rate has moved in an exporter-friendly direction.

So rather than relying on trickle down, rampant immigration and run away house prices the Government is trying to affect the economy in a more far sighted way.  And some things such as Donald Trump’s wrecking of world trade is beyond the means even of Jacinda Ardern to control, talented though she may be.

So there is nothing for businesses to worry about.  Unless your business model relies on rampant immigration and run away house prices.

37 comments on “Business confidence verses business certainty ”

  1. indiana 1

    No matter how Labour tries to sugar coat it, facts like this keep slapping them in the face:

    “Documents released by Treasury on Thursday reveal the agency repeatedly warned the Government against allowing HNZ to borrow money this way in the lead-up to the Budget, suggesting instead that the money should come out of normal Crown debt.”

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/106704499/billions-borrowed-for-new-state-homes-against-treasury-advice

    Not surprising that business perceivably goes against the rhetoric of:

    “For instance, average business confidence scores under the Clark/Cullen Government were much lower than the Key/English Government, despite Clark and Cullen delivering higher average growth, lower unemployment, lower debt, larger surpluses and stronger wage growth than their successors.”

    • mickysavage 1.1

      They warned the last Government too about this activity! Did you read where they said:

      “The advice echoed similar words given by Treasury when the National-led Government decided to allow Housing New Zealand to borrow over $1b in the last Budget.”

      Although I agree this should be on the crown’s balance sheet because it is cheaper. And the monetary policy rules should be changed.

    • Ad 1.2

      Has nothing to do with the business confidence survey.

  2. Wayne 2

    I was asked about this issue on RNZ this morning. So I did a bit of research prior to the interview, rather than speaking in generalities.

    To take the Auckland construction industry. Cement deliveries nationwide are down 5%, more in Auckland. While there are many cranes in the CBD (around 35) many of these are on projects that are coming to an end, without matching new projects. That is causing a lot of anxiety.

    Labour has talked a lot about new projects, but many of these are years from starting. Planning and consenting for light rail will take at least 18 months, probably more. To take the analogy I used on radio, instead of turning the tanker while it is underway, what is happening is the tanker is slowing, then being turned before it speeds up again.

    Business confidence is all about the future. A large number of businesses are looking at a real dip in the next 12 to 18 months, before Labour’s new plans kick in.

    That is why confidence is down. That is why many in the construction workforce are already going to Australia. It is why unemployment is likely to go up again in the next quarter.

    As Michael Barnett recently said, Labour needs to get some shovel ready projects going now. Sure these are largely from the previous govt, which Labour has canned, but there is a 12 to 18 month gap that has to be filled. Mostly they are roading and related type projects in the south and east of Auckland. While they may not be exactly Labour’s priorities, they will be be useful in freeing up traffic, especially in logistics and freight.

    And they will boost business confidence. Labour will be seen to be doing, and not just talking.

    • mickysavage 2.1

      Cement is just one indicator. It may mean that a couple of major road projects have finished.

      What about building consents? These are up 28% on last year …

      https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12116219

      There will be lots of construction work happening. And Kiwibuild is in the pipeline.

    • Ad 2.2

      In construction and infrastructure that hole is exactly what we are facing.
      That has some pretty big employment effects while our public sector clients figure themselves out over the next year.

    • Pat 2.3

      The construction industry neednt worry about a 12 month lag in forward orders Wayne….it’ll take them longer than that in overruns and rework on the poor workmanship already completed

    • Blazer 2.4

      I heard your comments this morning.
      Hodgeson was more illuminating on the realities in the economy.
      The supertanker analogy is an old one and not particularly helpful.

      ANZ economist Sharon Zollner says 2/3rds of growth has been down to immigration.
      The tradeable sector has been quite stagnant for some years now as GDP growth has relied on property inflation and immigration .

      ‘Business confidence is all about the future. A large number of businesses are looking at a real dip in the next 12 to 18 months, before Labour’s new plans kick in.’

      If businessmen could pick the future 12-18months out they wouldn’t need to rely on the old boy network of cushy directorships to earn money,they could just trade futures.

      • Dennis Frank 2.4.1

        You got it right there. This is the crux of the issue: “ANZ economist Sharon Zollner says 2/3rds of growth has been down to immigration. The tradeable sector has been quite stagnant for some years now as GDP growth has relied on property inflation and immigration.”

        Throughout his entire tenure as PM, it was obvious Key was faking it. The most credit he deserves was for keeping the ship steady post-gfc.

        Importing lots of foreigners to create the illusion of economic growth was nothing more than the desperation of a drug addict. If neoliberalism hadn’t become dysfunctional, they wouldn’t have been any desperation. But instead of facing reality and telling the truth, the cheerleaders of capitalism have taken refuge in evasion & denial. Spinelessness isn’t the solution to the problem.

  3. Ad 3

    It’s vital that the government can demonstrate that it has instigated projects that are delivering results prior to the next election.

    Minister Twyford clearly knows that.

    I get the impression Minister Jones does as well.

    The PM can (mildly) complain about the dissonance between boardroom mood and reality, but much of the uncertainty is of her own making.

    – Few of these 170+ working groups have specific outcomes or finishing dates, and even fewer within this term

    – The business group she is clearly forming on the fly has little chance of being a true alternative node of business advice and leadership

    – There is no tax plan other than … something next term

    – There is no clear plan for the economy, other than some exceedingly high level bromides from the Minister of Finance, … speaking of which…

    – Her Minister of Finance is missing in action. Almost totally. WTF is the PM having to spend her political capital on a business audience? That is the Min Finance’s job.

    The PM should make Roberston accountable for bringing the business community around to the government programme.

    • mac1 3.1

      “– Her Minister of Finance is missing in action. Almost totally. WTF is the PM having to spend her political capital on a business audience? That is the Min Finance’s job.”

      Having the PM attend signals how important she sees that particular forum. The attendees would appreciate that.

      I recently attended the local Chamber of Commerce which had a lunch-time speech by the Minister of Finance?

      Missing in action? Nah. Just anti-government hyperbole, Ad.

      Robertson told the New Zealand Shareholders’ Association annual meeting in Auckland on Saturday. “As part of that process, we want to work on how we register the remaining million or so New Zealanders who aren’t in KiwiSaver,”

      Or the symbolism of Ardern speaking to the business advisory council meeting. One opinion leader says, “This week’s speech by the Prime Minister is a strong signal that the Government is listening. It is important for business to know that it has a voice, and that the Government is hearing it and responding.”

      Who said that? Kirk Hope, chief executive of BusinessNZ.

      He saw the symbolism of having PM involvement. Robertson was also there. He spoke later to the media on the meeting.

      https://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2018660132/finance-minister-hopeful-of-business-confidence-turnaround

      • Ad 3.1.1

        From the media coverage of major spending announcements, the Minister of Finance appears to be Phil Twyford.

        In any other government, the Minister of Finance is the second-highest profile politician in the country.

        I’m sure Robertson does speeches. Don’t doubt it. If Kirk Hope fell in a forest, no one noticed the noise.

        The business confidence survey is strong and consistent enough to show that Robertson’s appearances do not equate to the leadership required to make a difference in the business community.

        If Ardern has to spend this much political capital shoring up business, Roberston is not doing his job.

        • mac1 3.1.1.1

          Ad, (in a tired but resigned voice), who is the Minister of Housing? Which Minister makes housing announcements? It is a recognised fact that Minsters can spend money in their portfolio areas.

          As for dismissal of the opinion writer for a major news organisation you dismiss him why? Because he dares to have an opinion which does not align with your bias?

          If you are sure that Robertson (do take note of the spelling!) makes speeches, why do you dismiss him as “missing in action”. I gave you a reference which showed he was well in the firing line, quite well-armed and taking care of the action.

          The business survey more reflects the politics of those surveyed rather than the reality of the NZ economy. Funny how people in surveys say they themselves are doing quite well thank you but the economy is doomed, “Doomed, I say, DOOMED!”

          • Ad 3.1.1.1.1

            Cheers I am aware of the Cabinet. Twyford is the person making all major announcements that are affecting the economy. Not Robertson. The budget was regrettably a long, long time ago in politics. It is Twyford not Robertson showing the leadership in economic intervention.

            Making a speech should not be confused with leading. You would know it if you saw it, as would the business community. If there was leadership, the Minister of Regional Economic Development would have know that the CE of Air NZ was going to lead the new government business group. He was totally blindsided and said so to the media on Friday.

            There’s no doom. There’s still plenty of strong fundamentals. A good government would show how to build on that.

            There are no stories in the MSM saying that this government has a clear plan for the economy. The mood polls reflect the government’s own policy incoherence.

            There are no stories in the MSM saying that there are outstanding new listings in the sharemarket, nor rises in productivity, nor decreases in youth unemployment, nor wage rises, nor increases in consumer spending, nor a tilting of investment from real estate to business, nor an accelerated shift away from bulk commodity exports … nor any coherent plan to address any of that.

            And if they did, you betcha that business survey would improve.

    • Hanswurst 3.2

      Ad, your comment appears to take as read the lines that the current government can meaningfully be said to have established 170+ enquiries over and above what would previously have been usual practice, and that the latter is an indication that the government is not implementing any sort of programme. I am well aware that you don’t actually think that either of these claims paints the full picture, but I do think that you may have lost sight of any substantive point about coherency of policy and message in the pursuit of playing Devil’s advocate. I also sometimes get the impression from your posts here that you think your Devil’s advocacy is a lot more provocative than it actually is.

      • mac1 3.2.1

        Hanswurst, with mustard! 🙂

      • Ad 3.2.2

        Nope, I genuinely think that – Twyford aside – this government is as incoherent as it looks. No one is able to give evidence that it is. Not you nor anyone.

        Your “impression” stems from an unwillingness to expect coherent greater than that which we have had for the last 9 years of government. Learn to expect more.

        No one outside of Wellington now believes this government has a shining singular purpose. Particularly not with the economy. That really is the role of Robertson.

        This primary intervention this week – again Twyford aside – was two all-weather horse racecourses and an incoherent business group with neither scope, purpose for the government, or membership.

        Keep dismissing the consistent mood-of-the-boardroom reports if you like. Nordmeyer’s government did similar, and lasted a term.

  4. Paul 4

    I wonder if this is the same survey that existed in the Bank some 17 years ago when I worked for ANZ. Basically the most junior smuck (me) got the job to complete it and send it to Head Office. Quite frankly I had no more idea of business confidence than any other person and just filled in some tick boxes and sent it off – job done. Maybe its changed and actual businesses are surveyed now – maybe not.

  5. Draco T Bastard 5

    What would they especially know about the wider economy? Running a company is not the same as running an economy.

    Interestingly enough, Paul Krugman made the same point back in 1996:

    College students who plan to go into business often major in economics, but few believe that they will end up using what they hear in the lecture hall. Those students understand a fundamental truth: What they learn in economics courses won’t help them run a business.

    The converse is also true: What people learn from running a business won’t help them formulate economic policy. A country is not a big corporation. The habits of mind that make a great business leader are not, in general, those that make a great economic analyst; an executive who has made $1 billion is rarely the right person to turn to for advice about a $6 trillion economy.

    Why should that be pointed out? After all, neither businesspeople nor economists are usually very good poets, but so what? Yet many people (not least successful business executives themselves) believe that someone who has made a personal fortune will know how to make an entire nation more prosperous. In fact, his or her advice is often disastrously misguided.

    That’s an interesting article as he goes on to say that foreign investment must result in a trade deficit. Our own trade deficits have been increasing ever since we allowed essentially unlimited FDI and yet the business people have been telling us that we need more.

    Business people do not understand economics.

    Most of these so-called business leaders are just bureaucrats who have climbed the greasy pole in a large corporate.

    QFT

    Most business people and other capitalists are about as entrepreneurial and innovative as a door nail.

    So rather than relying on trickle down, rampant immigration and run away house prices the Government is trying to affect the economy in a more far sighted way.

    I’ll believe that when they start dropping FTAs and start developing our own capabilities.

  6. Poission 6

    The parablr of the self-fulfilling prophecy.

    The parable tells us that public definitions of a situation (prophecies or predictions) become an integral part of the situation and thus affect subsequent developments. This is peculiar to human affairs. It is not found in the world of nature, untouched by human hands. Predictions of the return of Halley’s comet do not influence its orbit. But the rumoured insolvency of Millingville’s bank did affect the actual outcome. The prophecy of collapse led to its own fulfilment

    Business confidence falls householders start saving (instead of spending).

    164,316
    165,332
    166,836
    166,332
    167,001
    168,973
    169,595
    170,096
    171,530
    172,677

    (Billions of dollars since election)

    https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/s40-banks-liabilities-deposits-by-sector

  7. katipo 7

    Business confidence might be down because their million dollar+ CEO’s are realizing their worker-bee’s have had a guts-full of working longer hours with little to no pay increases.

  8. infused 8

    You guys need to wake up.

    These are lagging indicators.

    We’ve had our worst month in the last two years. It’s been in steady decline since June. We are posting a loss this month.

    Everything has stopped. No new customers, no orders of hardware.

    I was just speaking tonight with a software dev firm tonight who I’ve had a close relationship for 10 years, and this is the first month 4 big clients held back paying funds. He had to do the ring around to pay his staff.

    There are industries doing well, like construction. But many who are not.

    The end of this year is going to be crushing for many SMBs I imagine.

    • Hanswurst 8.1

      Ah well, in the absence of strong economic indicators to back up your concerns, maybe you’ll just have to accept that you and your friends are a bit s*** at business. Happens.

      • infused 8.1.1

        Yeah, been in business almost 15 years now, 150% growth last financial year. I’m not the one who’s shit.

        • Hanswurst 8.1.1.1

          Well, according to your own evidence just above, you’ve lost your mojo since June. Happens.

  9. RedBaronCV 9

    Business confidence index to be renamed the business sulk index?

    Still businesses that have been overdosing on the crack cocaine of growth fueled by immigration may be feeling a little poorly. Dud business models are going to fail as they should. And don’t forget the massive social & infrastructure cost that the taxpayer is stumping up for this immigration.

    But business should be celebrating wage and salary rises – more money outside the door means more money inside it as well

    So are the owners anticipating decreased profits in their own pocket or having nothing to invest in the business. If it’s just their own pockets hurting a little – sorry no sympathy and even less for the grossly inflated wages at the top of the tree.

  10. Jackel 10

    30 years of neoliberalism finally catching up with NZ. Hopefully the Ardern government can do something the other administrations couldn’t.

    https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/nzd/7615-nz-dollar-and-massive-debt-levels

  11. Jenny 11

    Why do we measure business confidence?

    Confidence is an internally felt emotion, like all emotions it is a subjective feeling.

    I mean how do you measure feelings?

    Subjective emotions are often, (but not always), engendered by external objective metrics, so why don’t we just identify and measure these external metrics instead?

    And if the government should pander to subjective emotions, should they just be pandering to one sector?

    Rising wages might cause feelings of lack of confidence in business, but feelings of confidence in workers.

    Falling house prices might engender growing feelings of confidence in first home buyers, but engender falling levels of confidence in bankers and businessmen.

    While we are talking about measuring subjective emotions….

    While we assiduously measure the subjective feelings of confidence of the business community, why don’t we measure the subjective feelings of confidence the public has in these business people?

    Wouldn’t this give us a better idea of how much subjective weight should be given to the tender feelings of business?

    If it is found that the public at large has no confidence in our business community, wouldn’t this be grounds to discount the feelings of confidence or lack thereof of business?

    Personally I think the whole matter of measuring feelings and emotions is idiotic, and government should stick to verifiable facts and figures.

  12. Dennis Frank 13

    Business confidence lows are more impressive elsewhere actually:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36319877

    You kinda get the impression inflation is a concern too: “The annual inflation rate reached 83,000% in July”. IMF is predicting the rate will reach a million per cent by the end of the year. A cup of coffee now costs 2,500,000 bolivars & one suspects the govt printing machine may be overheating spitting out the wee buggers. Since the economic crisis began in 2014, 7% of the population have fled the country. The fastest learners.

  13. hone 14

    cut paye to 3%, cut business tax to 6%.
    slash most of the government workers and mp’s, most of them are pigs at the trough.
    raise import tax.
    end all armed forces, make a defense force.
    end all work visas, as nzers can do these jobs.
    pretty sure kiwis can work on farms in gas stations, supermarkets etc.
    end the dole and start work programs.
    stop all global warming taxes and programs.
    and act like trump, act for nz first.
    we will have close to full employment, kiwis will spend more.
    oh and make socialism/Communism illegal.

  14. CHCOff 15

    Good to be bringing in Lobbying.

    The ultimate objective to be lead by the local economy, when our NZ export lead prosperity is lead by our NZ local economy, then that will be really something of the values that NZ mixes into the world arena.

    At the moment our local businesses seem to be balkanised, with what seems like centralised puppet actors like Fed Farmers parroting the dominant media complexes for their direction.

    Hopefully this govt. period can bring back in some more real world capitalism to the demand and supply organisation of the NZ local economy, in growing prosperous NZ quality of life values to lead our export lead prosperity for the NZ ‘brand’ if you like, of why other countries and their societies love the benefits of trading relationships with New Zealand identity.

    NZ1st!

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  • Pushback
    When this government came to power, it did so on an explicitly white supremacist platform. Undermining the Waitangi Tribunal, removing Māori representation in local government, over-riding the courts which had tried to make their foreshore and seabed legislation work, eradicating te reo from public life, and ultimately trying to repudiate ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago
  • Defence ministerial meeting meant Collins missed the Maori Party’s mischief-making capers in Parli...
    Buzz from the Beehive Maybe this is not the best time for our Minister of Defence to have gone overseas. Not when the Maori Party is inviting (or should that be inciting?) its followers to join a revolution in a post which promoted its protest plans with a picture of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago
  • Threats of war have been followed by an invitation to join the revolution – now let’s see how th...
     A Maori Party post on Instagram invited party followers to ….  Tangata Whenua, Tangata Tiriti, Join the REVOLUTION! & make a stand!  Nationwide Action Day, All details in tiles swipe to see locations.  • This is our 1st hit out and tomorrow Tuesday the 5th is the opening ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago
  • Top 10 for Tuesday, December 4
    The RBNZ governor is citing high net migration and profit-led inflation as factors in the bank’s hawkish stance. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere on the morning of Tuesday, December 5, including:Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says high net migration and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • Nicola Willis' 'show me the money' moment
    Willis has accused labour of “economic vandalism’, while Robertson described her comments as a “desperate diversion from somebody who can't make their tax package add up”. There will now be an intense focus on December 20 to see whether her hyperbole is backed up by true surprises. Photo montage: Lynn ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago
  • CRL costs money but also provides huge benefits
    The City Rail Link has been in the headlines a bit recently so I thought I’d look at some of them. First up, yesterday the NZ Herald ran this piece about the ongoing costs of the CRL. Auckland ratepayers will be saddled with an estimated bill of $220 million each ...
    2 days ago
  • And I don't want the world to see us.
    Is this the most shambolic government in the history of New Zealand? Given that parliament hasn’t even opened they’ve managed quite a list of achievements to date.The Smokefree debacle trading lives for tax cuts, the Trumpian claims of bribery in the Media, an International award for indifference, and today the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago
  • Cooking the books
    Finance Minister Nicola Willis late yesterday stopped only slightly short of accusing her predecessor Grant Robertson of cooking the books. She complained that the Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU), due to be made public on December 20, would show “fiscal cliffs” that would amount to “billions of ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago
  • Most people don’t realize how much progress we’ve made on climate change
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections The year was 2015. ‘Uptown Funk’ with Bruno Mars was at the top of the music charts. Jurassic World was the most popular new movie in theaters. And decades of futility in international climate negotiations was about to come to an end in ...
    2 days ago
  • Of Parliamentary Oaths and Clive Boonham
    As a heads-up, I am not one of those people who stay awake at night thinking about weird Culture War nonsense. At least so far as the current Maori/Constitutional arrangements go. In fact, I actually consider it the least important issue facing the day to day lives of New ...
    2 days ago
  • Bearing True Allegiance?
    Strong Words: “We do not consent, we do not surrender, we do not cede, we do not submit; we, the indigenous, are rising. We do not buy into the colonial fictions this House is built upon. Te Pāti Māori pledges allegiance to our mokopuna, our whenua, and Te Tiriti o ...
    3 days ago
  • You cannot be serious
    Some days it feels like the only thing to say is: Seriously? No, really. Seriously?OneSomeone has used their health department access to share data about vaccinations and patients, and inform the world that New Zealanders have been dying in their hundreds of thousands from the evil vaccine. This of course is pure ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    3 days ago
  • A promise kept: govt pulls the plug on Lake Onslow scheme – but this saving of $16bn is denounced...
    Buzz from the Beehive After $21.8 million was spent on investigations, the plug has been pulled on the Lake Onslow pumped-hydro electricity scheme, The scheme –  that technically could have solved New Zealand’s looming energy shortage, according to its champions – was a key part of the defeated Labour government’s ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • CHRIS TROTTER: The Maori Party and Oath of Allegiance
    If those elected to the Māori Seats refuse to take them, then what possible reason could the country have for retaining them?   Chris Trotter writes – Christmas is fast approaching, which, as it does every year, means gearing up for an abstruse general knowledge question. “Who was ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • BRIAN EASTON:  Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies. Brian Easton writes The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Climate Change: Fossils
    When the new government promised to allow new offshore oil and gas exploration, they were warned that there would be international criticism and reputational damage. Naturally, they arrogantly denied any possibility that that would happen. And then they finally turned up at COP, to criticism from Palau, and a "fossil ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    3 days ago
  • GEOFFREY MILLER:  NZ’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    Geoffrey Miller writes – New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the government’s smokefree laws debacle
    The most charitable explanation for National’s behaviour over the smokefree legislation is that they have dutifully fulfilled the wishes of the Big Tobacco lobby and then cast around – incompetently, as it turns out – for excuses that might sell this health policy U-turn to the public. The less charitable ...
    3 days ago
  • Top 10 links at 10 am for Monday, December 4
    As Deb Te Kawa writes in an op-ed, the new Government seems to have immediately bought itself fights with just about everyone. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Monday December 4, including:Palau’s President ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • Be Honest.
    Let’s begin today by thinking about job interviews.During my career in Software Development I must have interviewed hundreds of people, hired at least a hundred, but few stick in the memory.I remember one guy who was so laid back he was practically horizontal, leaning back in his chair until his ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: New Zealand’s foreign policy resets on AUKUS, Gaza and Ukraine
    New Zealand’s international relations are under new management. And Winston Peters, the new foreign minister, is already setting a change agenda. As expected, this includes a more pro-US positioning when it comes to the Pacific – where Peters will be picking up where he left off. Peters sought to align ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    3 days ago
  • Auckland rail tunnel the world’s most expensive
    Auckland’s city rail link is the most expensive rail project in the world per km, and the CRL boss has described the cost of infrastructure construction in Aotearoa as a crisis. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The 3.5 km City Rail Link (CRL) tunnel under Auckland’s CBD has cost ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • First big test coming
    The first big test of the new Government’s approach to Treaty matters is likely to be seen in the return of the Resource Management Act. RMA Minister Chris Bishop has confirmed that he intends to introduce legislation to repeal Labour’s recently passed Natural and Built Environments Act and its ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    3 days ago
  • The Song of Saqua: Volume III
    Time to revisit something I haven’t covered in a while: the D&D campaign, with Saqua the aquatic half-vampire. Last seen in July: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2023/07/27/the-song-of-saqua-volume-ii/ The delay is understandable, once one realises that the interim saw our DM come down with a life-threatening medical situation. They have since survived to make ...
    3 days ago
  • Chris Bishop: Smokin’
    Yes. Correct. It was an election result. And now we are the elected government. ...
    My ThinksBy boonman
    4 days ago
  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 26, 2023 thru Dec 2, 2023. Story of the Week CO2 readings from Mauna Loa show failure to combat climate change Daily atmospheric carbon dioxide data from Hawaiian volcano more ...
    4 days ago
  • Affirmative Action.
    Affirmative Action was a key theme at this election, although I don’t recall anyone using those particular words during the campaign.They’re positive words, and the way the topic was talked about was anything but. It certainly wasn’t a campaign of saying that Affirmative Action was a good thing, but that, ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • 100 days of something
    It was at the end of the Foxton straights, at the end of 1978, at 100km/h, that someone tried to grab me from behind on my Yamaha.They seemed to be yanking my backpack. My first thought was outrage. My second was: but how? Where have they come from? And my ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago
  • Look who’s stepped up to champion Winston
    There’s no news to be gleaned from the government’s official website today  – it contains nothing more than the message about the site being under maintenance. The time this maintenance job is taking and the costs being incurred have us musing on the government’s commitment to an assault on inflation. ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • What's The Story?
    Don’t you sometimes wish they’d just tell the truth? No matter how abhorrent or ugly, just straight up tell us the truth?C’mon guys, what you’re doing is bad enough anyway, pretending you’re not is only adding insult to injury.Instead of all this bollocks about the Smokefree changes being to do ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • The longest of weeks
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Friday Under New Management Week in review, quiz style1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • Suggested sessions of EGU24 to submit abstracts to
    Like earlier this year, members from our team will be involved with next year's General Assembly of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). The conference will take place on premise in Vienna as well as online from April 14 to 19, 2024. The session catalog has been available since November 1 ...
    5 days ago
  • Under New Management
    1. Which of these best describes Aotearoa?a. Progressive nation, proud of its egalitarian spirit and belief in a fair go b. Best little country on the planet c. Under New Management 2. Which of these best describes the 100 days of action announced this week by the new government?a. Petulantb. Simplistic and wrongheaded c. ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • While we wait patiently, our new Minister of Education is up and going with a 100-day action plan
    Sorry to say, the government’s official website is still out of action. When Point of Order paid its daily visit, the message was the same as it has been for the past week: Site under maintenance Beehive.govt.nz is currently under maintenance. We will be back shortly. Thank you for your ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Hysterical bullshit
    Radio NZ reports: Te Pāti Māori’s co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer has accused the new government of “deliberate .. systemic genocide” over its policies to roll back the smokefree policy and the Māori Health Authority. The left love hysterical language. If you oppose racial quotas in laws, you are a racist. And now if you sack ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2023
    Open access notables From this week's government/NGO section, longitudinal data is gold and Leisorowitz, Maibachi et al. continue to mine ore from the US public with Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Fall 2023: Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population, the authors describe how registered ...
    6 days ago
  • ELE LUDEMANN: It wasn’t just $55 million
    Ele Ludemann writes –  Winston Peters reckons media outlets were bribed by the $55 million Public Interest Journalism Fund. He is not the first to make such an accusation. Last year, the Platform outlined conditions media signed up to in return for funds from the PJIF: . . . ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 1-December-2023
    Wow, it’s December already, and it’s a Friday. So here are few things that caught our attention recently. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt covered the new government’s coalition agreements and what they mean for transport. On Tuesday Matt looked at AT’s plans for fare increases ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    6 days ago
  • Shane MacGowan Is Gone.
    Late 1996, The Dogs Bollix, Tamaki Makaurau.I’m at the front of the bar yelling my order to the bartender, jostling with other thirsty punters on a Friday night, keen to piss their wages up against a wall letting loose. The black stuff, long luscious pints of creamy goodness. Back down ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to Dec 1
    Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop and other National, ACT and NZ First MPs applaud the signing of the coalition agreements, which included the reversal of anti-smoking measures while accelerating tax cuts for landlords. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • 2023 More Reading: November (+ Writing Update)
    Completed reads for November: A Modern Utopia, by H.G. Wells The Vampire (poem), by Heinrich August Ossenfelder The Corpus Hermeticum The Corpus Hermeticum is Mead’s translation. Now, this is indeed a very quiet month for reading. But there is a reason for that… You see, ...
    6 days ago
  • Forward to 2017
    The coalition party agreements are mainly about returning to 2017 when National lost power. They show commonalities but also some serious divergencies.The two coalition agreements – one National and ACT, the other National and New Zealand First – are more than policy documents. They also describe the processes of the ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    7 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • Questions a nine year old might ask the new Prime Minister
    First QuestionYou’re going to crack down on people ram-raiding dairies, because you say hard-working dairy owners shouldn’t have to worry about getting ram-raided.But once the chemist shops have pseudoephedrine in them again, they're going to get ram-raided all the time. Do chemists not work as hard as dairy owners?Second QuestionYou ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago
  • Finally
    Henry Kissinger is finally dead. Good fucking riddance. While Americans loved him, he was a war criminal, responsible for most of the atrocities of the final quarter of the twentieth century. Cambodia. Bangladesh. Chile. East Timor. All Kissinger. Because of these crimes, Americans revere him as a "statesman" (which says ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago
  • Government in a hurry – Luxon lists 49 priorities in 100-day plan while Peters pledges to strength...
    Buzz from the Beehive Yes, ministers in the new government are delivering speeches and releasing press statements. But the message on the government’s official website was the same as it has been for the past several days, when Point of Order went looking for news from the Beehive that had ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago
  • DAVID FARRAR: Luxon is absolutely right
    David Farrar writes  –  1 News reports: Christopher Luxon says he was told by some Kiwis on the campaign trail they “didn’t know” the difference between Waka Kotahi, Te Pūkenga and Te Whatu Ora. Speaking to Breakfast, the incoming prime minister said having English first on government agencies will “make sure” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago
  • Top 10 at 10 am for Thursday, Nov 30
    There are fears that mooted changes to building consent liability could end up driving the building industry into an uninsured hole. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s my pick of the top 10 news and analysis links elsewhere as of 10 am on Thursday, November 30, including:The new Government’s ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on how climate change threatens cricket‘s future
    Well that didn’t last long, did it? Mere days after taking on what he called the “awesome responsibility” of being Prime Minister, M Christopher Luxon has started blaming everyone else, and complaining that he has inherited “economic vandalism on an unprecedented scale” – which is how most of us are ...
    7 days ago
  • We need to talk about Tory.
    The first I knew of the news about Tory Whanau was when a tweet came up in my feed.The sort of tweet that makes you question humanity, or at least why you bother with Twitter. Which is increasingly a cesspit of vile inhabitants who lurk spreading negativity, hate, and every ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago
  • Dangling Transport Solutions
    Cable Cars, Gondolas, Ropeways and Aerial Trams are all names for essentially the same technology and the world’s biggest maker of them are here to sell them as an public transport solution. Stuff reports: Austrian cable car company Doppelmayr has launched its case for adding aerial cable cars to New ...
    7 days ago
  • November AMA
    Hi,It’s been awhile since I’ve done an Ask-Me-Anything on here, so today’s the day. Ask anything you like in the comments section, and I’ll be checking in today and tomorrow to answer.Leave a commentNext week I’ll be giving away a bunch of these Mister Organ blu-rays for readers in New ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago
  • National’s early moves adding to cost of living pressure
    The cost of living grind continues, and the economic and inflation honeymoon is over before it began. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: PM Christopher Luxon unveiled his 100 day plan yesterday with an avowed focus of reducing cost-of-living pressures, but his Government’s initial moves and promises are actually elevating ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • Backwards to the future
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has confirmed that it will be back to the future on planning legislation. This will be just one of a number of moves which will see the new government go backwards as it repeals and cost-cuts its way into power. They will completely repeal one ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 week ago
  • New initiatives in science and technology could point the way ahead for Luxon government
    As the new government settles into the Beehive, expectations are high that it can sort out some  of  the  economic issues  confronting  New Zealand. It may take time for some new  ministers to get to grips with the range of their portfolio work and responsibilities before they can launch the  changes that  ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    1 week ago
  • Treaty pledge to secure funding is contentious – but is Peters being pursued by a lynch mob after ...
    TV3 political editor Jenna Lynch was among the corps of political reporters who bridled, when Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters told them what he thinks of them (which is not much). She was unabashed about letting her audience know she had bridled. More usefully, she drew attention to something which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • How long does this last?
    I have a clear memory of every election since 1969 in this plucky little nation of ours. I swear I cannot recall a single one where the question being asked repeatedly in the first week of the new government was: how long do you reckon they’ll last? And that includes all ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • National’s giveaway politics
    We already know that national plans to boost smoking rates to collect more tobacco tax so they can give huge tax-cuts to mega-landlords. But this morning that policy got even more obscene - because it turns out that the tax cut is retrospective: Residential landlords will be able to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago

  • Minister sets expectations of Commissioner
    Today I met with Police Commissioner Andrew Coster to set out my expectations, which he has agreed to, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. Under section 16(1) of the Policing Act 2008, the Minister can expect the Police Commissioner to deliver on the Government’s direction and priorities, as now outlined in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • New Zealand needs a strong and stable ETS
    New Zealand needs a strong and stable Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) that is well placed for the future, after emission units failed to sell for the fourth and final auction of the year, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says.  At today’s auction, 15 million New Zealand units (NZUs) – each ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    14 hours ago
  • PISA results show urgent need to teach the basics
    With 2022 PISA results showing a decline in achievement, Education Minister Erica Stanford is confident that the Coalition Government’s 100-day plan for education will improve outcomes for Kiwi kids.  The 2022 PISA results show a significant decline in the performance of 15-year-old students in maths compared to 2018 and confirms ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Collins leaves for Pacific defence meeting
    Defence Minister Judith Collins today departed for New Caledonia to attend the 8th annual South Pacific Defence Ministers’ meeting (SPDMM). “This meeting is an excellent opportunity to meet face-to-face with my Pacific counterparts to discuss regional security matters and to demonstrate our ongoing commitment to the Pacific,” Judith Collins says. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Working for Families gets cost of living boost
    Putting more money in the pockets of hard-working families is a priority of this Coalition Government, starting with an increase to Working for Families, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “We are starting our 100-day plan with a laser focus on bringing down the cost of living, because that is what ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme scrapped
    The Government has axed the $16 billion Lake Onslow pumped hydro scheme championed by the previous government, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says. “This hugely wasteful project was pouring money down the drain at a time when we need to be reining in spending and focussing on rebuilding the economy and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • NZ welcomes further pause in fighting in Gaza
    New Zealand welcomes the further one-day extension of the pause in fighting, which will allow the delivery of more urgently-needed humanitarian aid into Gaza and the release of more hostages, Foreign Minister Winston Peters said. “The human cost of the conflict is horrific, and New Zealand wants to see the violence ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Condolences on passing of Henry Kissinger
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters today expressed on behalf of the New Zealand Government his condolences to the family of former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who has passed away at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. “While opinions on his legacy are varied, Secretary Kissinger was ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Backing our kids to learn the basics
    Every child deserves a world-leading education, and the Coalition Government is making that a priority as part of its 100-day plan. Education Minister Erica Stanford says that will start with banning cellphone use at school and ensuring all primary students spend one hour on reading, writing, and maths each day. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • US Business Summit Speech – Regional stability through trade
    I would like to begin by echoing the Prime Minister’s thanks to the organisers of this Summit, Fran O’Sullivan and the Auckland Business Chamber.  I want to also acknowledge the many leading exporters, sector representatives, diplomats, and other leaders we have joining us in the room. In particular, I would like ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Keynote Address to the United States Business Summit, Auckland
    Good morning. Thank you, Rosemary, for your warm introduction, and to Fran and Simon for this opportunity to make some brief comments about New Zealand’s relationship with the United States.  This is also a chance to acknowledge my colleague, Minister for Trade Todd McClay, Ambassador Tom Udall, Secretary of Foreign ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • India New Zealand Business Council Speech, India as a Strategic Priority
    Good morning, tēnā koutou and namaskar. Many thanks, Michael, for your warm welcome. I would like to acknowledge the work of the India New Zealand Business Council in facilitating today’s event and for the Council’s broader work in supporting a coordinated approach for lifting New Zealand-India relations. I want to also ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Coalition Government unveils 100-day plan
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has laid out the Coalition Government’s plan for its first 100 days from today. “The last few years have been incredibly tough for so many New Zealanders. People have put their trust in National, ACT and NZ First to steer them towards a better, more prosperous ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

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