Written By:
mickysavage - Date published:
10:13 am, August 4th, 2014 - 86 comments
Categories: conservative party, greens, john banks, john key, labour, national -
Tags:
The Epsom seat may be the difference between National winning or losing the next election. So the recent announcement that Christine Rankin will be standing there adds an extra degree of chaos which National may or may not appreciate.
She declared confidently this morning on Morning Report that she will win the seat but I regret that her confidence is misplaced. She referred to Conservative Party polling and said that the results gave her a chance of winning. She declined to release the numbers. She also claimed that ACT does not have a chance of winning.
I sensed a large amount of bravado in what Rankin said. The decision is a long shot, obviously the Conservatives think that they can beat a John Key message to the voters of Epsom to support ACT and somehow come through the centre. To be honest barring some sort of divine intervention there is not a chance that she will win. But she may affect the election in a way that I suspect is not intended.
There are three main groups of voters in the Epsom seat, National supporters who are willing to give their electorate vote to ACT, National voters who are not willing to give their electorate vote to ACT even if this means that they have to vote for Paul Goldsmith and Labour and Green voters, most of who would rather walk on broken glass than vote for anyone but their candidate. There are other groups such as people who actually support ACT but for current purposes I think that these can be ignored.
How much will Christine Rankin appeal to these groups? Briefly very little, some, and none whatsoever. National supporters willing to vote for the ACT candidate are obviously doing this at the request of John Key. Rankin and the Conservative party will have little if no appeal to them and I doubt she will be able to shift them. National supporters not willing to shift may be more likely to support Rankin, particularly those with a deeply conservative possibly religious view of the world. The number of Labour and Green supporters who would vote for Rankin you can probably count on the fingers of one hand. The best that can be hoped is that they will hold their nose, do a sign of the cross and vote for Goldsmith. A few people who have done this in the past have described
Will this save ACT? I doubt it. David Seymour is no Rodney Hide or John Banks in terms of his public persona and apart from his claim to fame in relation to his door knocking prowess has no discernible appeal. Michael Wood and Julie Anne Genter will show up his limited political skills big time.
So Rankin may increase Seymour’s chances. But at the end of the day I suspect that there will be a sufficient number of National supporters who refuse to go along with National’s dirty deal to prevent this deal from working.
This will be significant. Effectively marooning 3 to 4% of right wing vote may be the difference between National winning or losing. On election night I am sure that all eyes will be on Epsom.
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
The billboards need the Act logos swapping with the Conservatives logos. Mix them all up so Act and Conservatives billboards have bits of each on them …..
Expect new earrings, heals and micro mini skirt! Dont you just love “conservatism”.
You forgot the plunging neck-lines.
http://tvnz.co.nz/content/46104/2591764.xhtml
Too much excitement being “conservative”…..all too much for a mere male!
I did have the thought that if I was married to her I would not have to buy trout lures, I could just “borrow” her earrings.
Anne
It was more lunging than plunging
Couldn’t have put it better.
I hear that Cristine Rankin had an [sorry Sanctuary but Craig is litigious and we need to be careful – MS].
How does Colin Craig square that sort of morality of one his headline candidates with his supposed commitment to marriage and “family values”?
Morality and similar social judgments are not supposed to apply to religious conservatives! Should I ever wish to spice up my sex life and go extramarital I am going to become a televangelist, wear a grey suit, white shirt and blue tie, scream “Hallelujah” and pontificate on “family values”. Its a sure winner, check the track record, cant lose!
Good way to score drugs in a strange town too.
Surveys show active church going Christians are more likely to cheat on their taxes, steal from their employers, and cheat on their partners than people who are not regular church goers.
It was first documented in the book “Good Guys and God Guys” by Professor Robert Tapp of the University of Chicago, published in the 1960’s. Contemporary surveys confirm not much has changed.
Although I’d take any research done on church-goers with a grain of salt as not being applicable to other cultures.
Some American church goers are very radical and very hypocritical.
“How does Colin Craig square that sort of morality?”
Maybe he dresses up in a nurses uniform, gets with 2 other holier-than-thou ‘conservatives’ and takes a vote (2 outa 3 ain’t bad).
mmmm – except that’d be a triangle rather than squaring it Christ – I dunno – ask Kerry and Rex
I was wondering if that was in field or not…
Close. What Sanctuary was referring to was something detailed in this report from the Herald in 2010.
“High-profile Wellington real estate agent Margo McAuley killed herself while “very much under stress” from the breakdown of her marriage, a coroner ruled yesterday.
Ian Smith said that although Ms McAuley had a “dangerous” level of the prescription sleeping pill zopiclone in her system when she took her life, it was unlikely to have contributed to her death.
Ms McAuley, 42, was found dead by her husband, Kim MacIntyre, at her Miramar home on October 29, 2008, a day after he told her he was ending the relationship. She believed he was leaving her for another woman.
Mr MacIntyre married Families Commissioner Christine Rankin about two months later – Ms Rankin publicly denied having an affair with Mr MacIntyre at the time of Ms McAuley’s death.”
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10676531
Well it’s possible that they weren’t having an affair. That they realised they wanted to be together but waited until after he left his existing marriage. Can’t see a problem with that in terms of family values (unless Craig’s church doesn’t allow divorce).
I agree. It is an unjust distraction. An unnecessary unproven below the belt unfair speculation in the present election context.
Far more useful and relevant to look back at her time as head of WINZ. I especialy remember one year there was a massive student loan and allowance screw up under her watch.
As I recall Ms McAuley’s daughter had a different opinion.
This may be the time for Michael Wood, with all the scrapping over the seat of Epsom Michael is confidently going about his work and impressing people. He is a great candidate and I am sure people are changing their minds to support him. The vote will be so split, he may just do it – just saying…
No, he won’t “just do it” if past performance is any guide to future performance and there is again just several thousand votes between the actual National candidate and the ‘as nominated by John Key’ National candidate.
2011 Election Results – Epsom Electorate
BANKS, John (ACT) 15,835
GOLDSMITH, Paul (NAT) 13,574
PARKER, David (LAB) 3,751
HAY, David (GP) 2,160
KAN, Simon (CNSP) 342
BRIGHT, Penny (IND) 124
O’DEA, Pat (MANA) 66
GOODE, Matthew (IND) 59
No matter how much you don’t want to; vote actual National candidate in Epsom to help defeat the National led government.
Look at it this way, the only candidates who could possibly win Epsom are Goldsmith and Seymour. A vote for anyone else is a complete waste, and could let Act, and therefore National, to win again.
I dispute that most Epsom Labour and Green voters “would rather walk on broken glass than vote for anyone but their candidate”. I believe that many Labour and Green voters sensibly voted for Goldsmith, and they should do so again.
Get rid of ACT this time and maybe they will give up completely. THEN you can all vote for your pary’s candidate if you want.
It’s sad but I’d walk on broken glass to get rid of ACT especially if there was the possibility of 4 or 5 of them entering parliament.
(I like the ‘Association of Crooks and Thieves ‘acronym – thanks whoever thought that up.)
Roger Douglas, Ruth Richardson and Richard Prebble originally I think. Notice the three big R’s!
And ex Nat Derek Quigley, with people like Allan Gibbs, Roger Kerr and Diane Foreman in the background.
The Business Round Table was an ACT sympathetic organisation too (clone). In top business circles there was a revolving door between Labour Rogernomes, National and Act Parties. When the USSR broke up they had Rog Douglas advising how to split up and flog off the state assets.
Started as association of citizens and ratepayers in auckland local body politics… Became Association of Citizens and Taxpayers… Hence the recent, just in time for elections, emergence of the taxpayers union.
Actually it had its initial origins in an outfit called the 20/20 club in the early 1990s. It was largely populated by people from the 1980s Backbone Club. It then evolved into the Association of Consumers and Taxpayers which in turn morphed into the ACT political party late in 1994.
Thanks Anne
4 or 5? Oohhh, you’ve made my day
0 in my opinion, because Goldsmith will royally gazump him with a little help from friends and foes from many unexpected quarters, including Key and Harre! That is two votes, right there!
The last person to make a serious wager on ACT getting zero MPs was Keith Locke. I presume you’re making the same wager?
Those coupla thousand votes between Banks and Goldsmith in 2011, it ain’t that much is it? So is it not possible that with some effort from those opposed to ACT winning Epsom, National could win the seat?
The question is Epsom, do you have an organised grassroots movement that can actively promote an electorate vote for the bag o flour? If not, don’t leave it to fate, get organised, get your collective power going and do it!
Which is what Rankin is there to prevent, or try to.
She’s only going to pull votes from the core National support, which will counter any tactical voting from the left.
There were about 4700 left leaning voters who voted for Goldsmith in 2011, or half the combined Labour / Green vote in the electorate. To get enough to upset the teacups would have needed almost all the left voters to vote for Goldsmith.
What you fail to realise is that large numbers of what you term “left” voters actually have some sympathy for ACT’s core principles, namely the removal of privilege and the right of low income NZers to have the choice, that only rich NZers now have: to choose the provider or their or their children’s education, health or superannuation.
Choose to have to pay through the nose for services that put profit first?
Citation required
I think alot of people who post here have rose tinted glasses about Epsom.
Epsom wont go left. It has NEVER gone left. For left voters in epsom you vote for goldsmithor throw awayyour vote on labour or green candidate.
I think rankin could create some minimal drag on national but i believe ACT will win the seat.
Labour almost won Remuera in 1987 and lost it by about 1,600 votes. But those were really strange times …
Yes, the times when labour began to look like national and turned out to be ACT?
Remember it well MickyS – I was living in the area at the time and got quite excited about it, naive as I was at the time, though I have remained in contact with the Labour candidate of the time. I lived in Mt St John Avenue for 21 years and we were tossed between Onehunga, Remuera, Eden electorates as far as I can recall over that time, well not so much Eden, but we were in the Bermuda Triangle from Manukau/Great South Road through to Greenlane Road. Interesting and strange times indeed. I can remember campaigning for Fred Gerbic and Frank Rogers (both Onehunga).
That was my first election
So Epsom, is now a vote between a con, or crooks and thieves?
Yo! Christine! Colin called!
He wants to know if you’ve done his laundry yet?
And he wants dinner on the table by 6, smartly.
Carry on with your campaigning, now…
now, now, certain women are allowed to be exempt in this day and age, when they serve the cause in other ways.
Not much different from,
Yo! Key! Obama called!
Yo! Key! FBI called!
Yo! Key! Hollywood called!
Christine don,t forget to remind people just quietly about those nasty vapor trails also the moon-landings were faked in a Hollywood basement.
one stiletto step forward for nasty Christine Rankin one giant leap backwards for women kind!
Any thought about how things will look if National pull Paul Goldsmith??????
strategically this is what the need to do………
He is known and seen in the middle of the night pulling his own bills boards away during the last erection. I swear I saw a photo somewhere!
Ummm… You mean election – yes? 🙂
Haven’t you heard, chemtrail boy is now on #teamcunliffe.This will help ACT in Epsom.
Oooooh, the right wing are getting bitchy with each other. The claws are out.
Meow!
pssyriot
“Haven’t you heard, chemtrail boy is now on #teamcunliffe.This will help ACT in Epsom.”
Haven’t you heard, methamphetamine man is now on #teamKey.This will help ACT in Epsom.
Ha Steve you are such a crack up. I bet you believe in chemtrails too …
Anyone know the formula of this chemical they’re spraying? I’ll have a crack at synthesising it. Just think of all the great uses I could put it to.
Vote the ACT fellow in Epsom=Get National and ACT=Self inflicted wound into our Nation.
If I was there, I would watch which of the other candidates, Michael Wood (Lab),
Paul Goldsmith (Nat), Julie Anne Gentre (Greens) or any other non-ACT, non-CONS candidate is leading, and would give my electorate vote to THAT particular candidate. I suspect that would most likely be Goldsmith, the cunningly silent very reluctant shy bride!
Vote the National man, GOLDMITH in Epsom=Kick ACT and National out of Government! How cool is that!
[In some other special electorates I would most likely do as follows:
Epsom: To keep ACT out, most likely the sad puppy, Nat’s poor Golsdsmith.
Ohariu: Leading non-UF candidate, most likely, the Labour candidate, Virginia Andersen.
Te Tai Tokerau: To help get Mana in, the Mana candidate, Hone Harawira.
East Coast Bays: To keep Cons/Collin out, most likely the National candidate, McCully.
Hellensville: Consolidate all non-Key votes to the Internet party candidate, Laila Harre.
So some of us progressives get a chance to vote, one way or another, for LOTS of very very important and crucial electoral candidates : National, Labour, Mana and Internet candidates! How cool is that? Life is beautiful!
Epsom voters in this election are very spoiled for choice with so many cats and some dogs, some rich pricks and some ordinary folk as their electorate candidates, some of whom are given strong coat tails, some with long legs and huge ear bangles, and some have just the smell of an oily rag.
I am glad that Harre AND Key are voting for Goldsmith!
Here is a potential Epsom theme song. Specially dedication to the EPSOM electorate. Enjoy!
BREAKING NEWS:
It is official on TV3. Just as I had thought.
PAUL GOLDSMITH WINS EPSOM!
http://www.3news.co.nz/Nationals-Goldsmith-takes-Epsoms-giant-Jaffa-poll/tabid/817/articleID/355412/Default.aspx
Yup. 1st of many polls showing definitively that Goldsmith will win Epsom…just like in 2011
gonna be another cup of tea – the last one went well.
Hell goldsmith was only a couple of thousand behind the fraudster, wasn’t he? He might win by accident…
Do you realise how sad this makes you look, relying as you are on people who dont want your policies feeling compelled to vote for your party… You should.
Not Christine Rank! Epsom people must feel insulted at the way they are being played with by politicians.
Sorry I meant Rank Christine
Good. Let them eat each other alive…
Has anyone noticed how easy National has made it to deface their billboards
I have seen working for
Wall street
Ourselves
America
The 1%
Ive also noticed the indignation of many who dont think it matters how often Key lies, over,messed up billboards
Funny old world
Love it, that’s the best part about billboards. Do you remember the 1/2 Nats 1/2 Labour ones when Helen got in – superb.
Yeah Tracy
we are Lying
fogetting
bullying
cheating
wasting
spying
for theUSA
Conservative slogan on flyer –
If you’ve had a GUTS FULL of a GOVERNMENT who [which] DOESN’T do what [it’s] THEY’RE TOLD.
(But we’ll cosy up to them and hope our nobility rubs off and makes them better people?)
On the Conservative Party subject. This is from a report from end July meeting in Nelson where Craig spoke and introduced 81 year old orchardist Nelson candidate, and one from the west coast who is a drug counsellor. It seemed that most in the audience were very mature.
The journalist captured these gems of commonsense and decency.
In a 30-minute speech Craig focused on referendums, “one law for all New Zealanders”, law and order, and tax
and on racism and one law for all sort of stuff:
“Apparently saying that we want to remove segregation is racist to some people. Absolute nonsense.”
The people of New Zealand did not want Maori spirituality written into law.
“I know quite a few Maori, and none of them buy into it. But we have an issue where we are writing those sorts of laws. We are opposing that – if we have to, we’ll take it to court.” The party also wanted the Maori seats abolished.
“We need to embrace the idea in this country that we play together, we work together and we vote together. I believe that’s the basis on which to build a great nation.”
and using the environment to benefit all NZs etc
If you think that all the gold on the West Coast should stay there forever, bless. I have a slightly different view – if you dig hole in the ground and plant a tree you’re a Greenie. If you dig a big hole in the ground, take the gold out and plant a native forest, apparently you’re an eco-terrorist.”
and
‘Bottom-end tax cuts’! The Conservatives believed in a tax cut at the bottom end.
“I benefited from the tax cut at the top end but frankly, I wasn’t the one that needed the help. There are people out there who are working 40 hours a week and then going out and working a second and third job to make life work for them financially. Those are the people that needed a tax cut.”
He was against early release of prisoners and did not believe they should “sit around” when they could be working.
More job cuts from a west coast gold mine Colin
Can someone remind me what happened to Bette Lynche?. My sister is a Coro addict and unavaliable for verification – but I had this feint recollection that she’d hooked up with a nutter and retired to NZ – travelling on a luxury cruiser with toilet earings intact. I imagined she’d changed her name from Lynch to Rankin a while back and used the usual over-embellished CV, lost her accent, and was standing for Parliament (having first taken advantage of transferring her retirement funds of course).
Or am I getting confused with that once was an adonis who hooked up with Leesa Gibbons -Entertainment Tonight bimbo – during that telethonny thingy out in the colonies.
I’m sure I’m dreaming though because I heard Krussy protesting this morning on Mourning Report with the sage e-Spinner and Susie (darling) Fergusson that she wuz seary iss en she wuz gunna won Espom. (Let me know if was a dream because a courier load of those special salts and a chit to the Caci Klunk could be wasted.
Good luck Krussy – Oim right behind you – you’ve earned Epsom. There’s a neck-pull in it with a load of colagen thrown in (off the back of a long distance artic – but I’m sure you won’t mind)
@ Once Was Tim 3.43
You got the coffee over-strength again! Did you hear Matthew Hooton, I think it was, this morning on Radionz saying that he told Rankin that her standing in Epsom would result in more votes going to Labour? He said she then went and put her name down for the seat!
Brian Edwards criticised Rankin.
http://brianedwardsmedia.co.nz/2009/05/meeting-christine-rankin/
It’s interesting thinking back to that suitable clothing business and the Court case about it. The idea that women should not have a clothing standard, although men do, shows a remarkable amount of arrogance. And lack of respect for their employment position, and their colleagues, and the people they communicate with during their day.
http://tvnz.co.nz/content/46104/423466/article.html (Thanks Anne above for this one)
Margaret Bazley had ‘trained’ her but they had disagreed on some matters. So Rankin must be more arrogant than Bazley. But Bazley, was a gummint fix-it person and took over Rankin’s job.
Rankin talked in her evidence about receiving threats and abuse, but Dame Margaret says that comes with the territory. [being WINZ boss.]
“I have had bullets in the mail, I’ve had death threats, threats of gang rape, effigies burnt of me, and I would not be alarmed in the senior ranks of the public service, they’re not issues we talk about, we just get on with it,” she told the court.
And Mark Prebble showed a particular lack of training in how to deal with a woman without understanding of any public service ethos. And the careful use of chat with those foreign to such understanding. The advice would be, eep your trap shut as much of the time as possible, there is too much lost in translation. Look at the mess he got into wittering on about earrings.
“It’s complete nonsense… I was not talking about flamboyance, style and specifically not talking about earrings, I did say that I had a recollection that Desmond Morris did seem to think that ears and earrings had some sexual connotation,” Prebble said.
Wonder if someone could persuade Louis Rawnsley to stand against Rankin?
I saw this comment on Dim Post:
I remember that incident. Apart from exposing Rankin for the obnoxious woman she is, what sort of an outfit is TVNZ who are apparently happy to sack someone who had worked for them for 24 years on her say so!
That’s incredible! She would represent the Epsom/ Remuera conservatives well. Vote wankin’ Rankin!
Not on her say so.
On the say so of TVNZ human resources.
Where her son – Matthew Rea-Rankin – had worked as an HR manager until a couple of years before the Rawnsley incident. And presumably still had some contacts with people working there.
Which was, I am sure, entirely coincidental.
That’s interesting lurgee.
Years ago, I worked for AKTV2 (TVNZ’s fore-runner) as a technical operator specialising in audio. One thing I discovered is that the broadcasting/telecasting industry is a very incestuous place. So much so, that the public were commonly referred to as “the peasants”. That culture is still there. In fact it’s probably even worse than it used to be.
The Conservatives may well win this seat. That’s better than Key gifting them one. This is the best election in years, can’t wait to see how it plays out.
errrr….. the sensible. strategic ELECTORATE vote in Helensville – in my considered opinion (and of course I would say this, wouldn’t I 🙂 is PROVEN anti -corruption/ anti-privatisation Public Watchdog Penny Bright.
If Helensville folk like candidates attached to any of the political parties – give them the PARTY vote (which is what their parties want).
FYI – the response I’m getting as I go around the shops / businesses / gatherings in the Helensville electorate (Piha/ Helensville / Kumeu/ Huapai) is very favourable.
This Wednesday night I’ll be attending my second meeting in Helensville which is being organised by locals – for locals , in order to hear more about corrupt corporate control of NZ, locally, nationally and internationally.
As I talk to people I’m finding that many are very concerned about John Key’s current shareholding in the Bank of America.
So – whose interests are being served by this ”poodle of Wall St’?
Follow the dollar …..
Penny Bright
FYI – in 2011 when I stood against John Banks in Epsom and got 124 votes, I used the electorate process to focus on how ACTs ‘one law for all’ hadn’t applied to Banks over Huljich Wealth Management,
http://www.pennybright4epsom.org.nz
(Scroll down to see photos of ‘piggy-backing’ my (duly authorised) electoral messages on to John Banks & John Key’s hoardings.
REALLY upset Cameron Slater at the time – so must have done something right 🙂
Penny Bright
Our household of E5+1 eligible East Coast Bays voters have discussed the options fireside @ dinner this evening.
Consensus – ABC – (anyone but C) – we will likely all electorate vote for Murray – he has been okay, even responded finely when challenged as electorate MP and MFA.
We all aspire a Left outcome.
The Left aspirants of Epsom must remember the Girl was Once a Leftie – but nah !
It’s breathtaking audacity. First the Conservatives lambast New Zealand women for their lack of modesty – and then they run Christine Rankin!
Ah, ya gotta love the irony…
@ Frank Mackasy 11.03
Please drop in often and leave a bit or iron-y in our diets. We all need a bit of reinforcement at this point in time.
Its colon Craigs vapourized entrails no doubt the next ewe turn will be an incestuous relationship (space ship) with ACT!
EPSOM: ACT’s SEYMOUR CAN SNEAK THROUGH…..unless…..MOST OF LABOUR and GREEN votes go to Goldsmith. Here is why:
2011 Election
BANKS(ACT)=44%
GOLDSMITH(NAT)=38%
PARKER(LAB)=10%
HAY(GP)=6%
REST=2%
RESULT=ACT’s BANKS won!
2014:
This time around, some previous votes cast for Goldsmith and Seymour, (I am assuming 4%+4%), may shift to Rankin and the result may look like this:
SEYMOUR(ACT)=44-4=40%
GOLDSMITH(NAT)=38-4=34%
RANKIN(CONS)=8%
WOOD(LAB)=10%
GENTER(GP)=6%
REST=2%
RESULT=ACT’s Seymour wins!
The only way for the progressives to be more sure of defeating ACT and NATIONAL would be for MOST, if not all, of Labour and Greens voters to give their candidate vote to GOLDSMITH.
Assuming there is a 50% improvement in the Labour and Green strategic voting tactics, (5% and 3% rather than the previous election’s 10% and 6% ) the result could look like this:
SEYMOUR(ACT)=40%
GOLDSMITH(NAT)=34+5%+3%=42%
RANKIN(CONS)=8%
WOOD(LAB)=5%
GENTER(GP)=3%
REST=2%
RESULT=NATIONAL’S Mr PAUL GOLDSMITH MP!…Now, who wouldn’t want such a lovely result!
All Ican say is I thank my lucky stars that I do not live in Epsom .It seems to be populated with a ghastly ,greedy racist population.The good thing is that they deserve Rankin and her sleazy supporters .
I am a registered Epsom voter. I will be ticking a box for Labour and a box for Goldsmith.
Others I know who are National voters are planning on voting for Goldsmith too. They have had enough of propping up Act and are betting that National will have enough to win without him.
I wonder what the atmosphere will be like at the National Epsom Electorate office when Goldsmith wins?
Most will be happy, except Goldsmith there and Key sulking at home!