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Pollwatch: Colmar Brunton 28/5/2018

Written By: - Date published: 7:38 pm, May 28th, 2018 - 59 comments

A chart of the expected outcome from this poll. Greens: 6, Labour: 55, National: 58, ACT: 1.

Hot on the heels of Reid Research, TVNZ has also been doing post-budget polling, and this one paints a bit of a different picture.

The election year party donations returns

Written By: - Date published: 10:12 am, May 6th, 2018 - 40 comments

The election year donation returns have been released and show a surge of donations for Labour but National still well ahead.

The Centre, the Left and UK local elections

Written By: - Date published: 11:18 am, May 4th, 2018 - 14 comments

Thoughts on a resurgent left and a collapsing centre.

National paying the price for cannibalising the political right

Written By: - Date published: 7:03 am, September 26th, 2017 - 27 comments

National have maintained their own vote but killed off all their political friends. Which is why their only route to power is now in the hands of an enemy, and why that enemy should be very wary of hitching his wagon to their fading star.

UK Defense Secretary on Corbyn

Written By: - Date published: 12:22 pm, May 28th, 2017 - 49 comments

A quite remarkable interview of Michael Fallon by Channel 4 News in the UK.

Colinoscopy

Written By: - Date published: 6:32 pm, October 3rd, 2016 - 41 comments

In which we learn that Colin Craig had already lost another case months before being done over in his defamation trial.

A settlement proposal for Jordan Williams and Colin Craig

Written By: - Date published: 7:52 am, September 24th, 2016 - 41 comments

A suggested settlement proposal to resolve the Williams v Craig case which may achieve some good.

Latest Roy Morgan Poll

Written By: - Date published: 1:10 pm, May 23rd, 2016 - 105 comments

The Latest Roy Morgan poll result has been released with both National and Labour recording a significant improvement in support.  But Winston is still the king maker …

Williams sues Craig and Bomber takes on Police

Written By: - Date published: 2:53 pm, August 14th, 2015 - 44 comments

Two breaking news stories as Jordan Williams gets in first and sues Colin Craig and Martyn Bradbury is spoken to by police about a blog post advocating civil disobedience.

Colin Craig’s electoral return

Written By: - Date published: 4:32 pm, August 10th, 2015 - 43 comments

John Stringer has accused Colin Craig of filing a false electoral return. But even now it looks like the complaint may be doomed to failure.

Craig suing Slater – bring popcorn

Written By: - Date published: 3:36 pm, July 29th, 2015 - 138 comments

Colin Craig is suing Cameron Slater and Jordan Williams in defamation.

Updated with booklet.

Armstrong is Craig’s last fan

Written By: - Date published: 3:31 pm, June 27th, 2015 - 5 comments

John Armstrong is apparently the last political “commentator” to take Colin Craig seriously. It’s really quite sweet.

Colin Craig’s Contempt for His Victim

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 pm, June 22nd, 2015 - 113 comments

The Conservative Party’s Colin Craig has victimised his former Press Secretary by deliberately breaching a confidentiality settlement in order to frame his inappropriate behaviour as a minor matter they were both equally responsible for. Well, that’s crap, Colin. It’s actually a rich man using his power and privilege to belittle a woman. Again.

National running short of coalition partners

Written By: - Date published: 8:17 am, June 20th, 2015 - 14 comments

There’s a lot of chatter about the Conservative Party at the moment, but the Nats are the only ones who have a reason to care.

Curtains for Colin Craig’s career?

Written By: - Date published: 2:40 pm, June 19th, 2015 - 40 comments

The Conservatives have called a press conference this afternoon and it appears that Colin Craig’s tenure as leader may be terminated.  But will he be back?

Bye Colin?

Written By: - Date published: 6:22 pm, June 18th, 2015 - 35 comments

According to 3 News Colin Craig is to be rolled as leader of the Conservatives. Hard to imagine, as Colin Craig is the Conservatives.

UK Election; the lessons.

Written By: - Date published: 6:52 pm, May 8th, 2015 - 393 comments

Like a punch drunk boxer, the pollsters didn’t see it coming. Three leaders could be writing their resignation letters over night. David Cameron is pinching himself at how easy it all turned out. And Scotland had another referendum.

Some brief thoughts on the UK Election and what can be learned.

Update: Ed Miliband resigns. Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage have also quit.

Three final polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, September 19th, 2014 - 98 comments

Three last polls and National’s support is declining, Labour’s improving and the Greens are stable.  Things are getting very close with Winston Peters looking more and more likely to hold the balance of power.  This election will be decided vote by vote.

The Conservatives in a shambles

Written By: - Date published: 3:03 pm, September 18th, 2014 - 29 comments

This direct mail has gone out without an authorisation statement to who knows how many kiwi households. Add this on top of losing their press sec today and you have to wonder if the Conservatives are going to make it to election day in one piece. In case you can’t read the text at the […]

Vote Key, get Colin

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, September 18th, 2014 - 97 comments

With the latest poll results it’s basically a coin-toss whether a vote for National gets you Colin Craig and his extremist mates at the Cabinet table.

Blue on the polls

Written By: - Date published: 12:04 pm, September 14th, 2014 - 62 comments

Landline polls are a traditional gripe for lefties. But this election polls look seriously out of whack with reality.  Is National at 55%, 50%, 48% or 46%? But it’s always far too large for a party at National’s current stage in the political cycle. Just unbelievable and highly unlikely.

What kind of government would National lead?

Written By: - Date published: 12:45 pm, September 8th, 2014 - 112 comments

The choice for NZ voters is becoming clearer in the last days of the 2014 election. The irony is that after John Key’s scaremongering, our options are a three-headed coalition of natural allies versus a five-or-six headed hydra of extremists and sworn enemies.

National’s mating dance with the Conservatives II

Written By: - Date published: 8:39 am, September 8th, 2014 - 30 comments

National is now talking up the possibility of a post election accommodation with the Conservative Party.  But the thought of the Conservatives having a significant say in policy formation should make all progressives very afraid.

Tories! Scared of Internet/Mana? I have the solution …

Written By: - Date published: 7:19 am, September 5th, 2014 - 64 comments

Labour are going to lead the next Government. So what’s a Tory voter to do to keep the damge to a minimum? If the possibility of Hone Harawira and Laila Harre being Ministers in the Cunliffe administration is keeping you up at night, then Te Reo Putake has the answer.

The opening addresses of Election 2014

Written By: - Date published: 10:00 am, August 24th, 2014 - 31 comments

Last night the opening party political addresses were broadcast on TV One, simultaneous with an All Blacks match and a live-tweeted crowd viewing of Labyrinth. So if you missed out (and don’t follow my every thought on Twitter), here’s my reaction! [Update: more links to videos!]

Local Bodies: Greens Riding Above Stormy Seas

Written By: - Date published: 9:41 am, August 13th, 2014 - 10 comments

Dave Kennedy (bsprout) looks at the increasingly parlous current state of the smaller parties. He is also looking forward to the Green party campaign launch this weekend in Auckland. Updated with Green campaign launch details.

The right’s lack of diversity

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, August 12th, 2014 - 46 comments

On the right there’s one big party who have the lion’s share of the vote, and a smattering of odd little parties at the kids’ table fighting for scraps and key electorates. It’s one of the reasons National continues to poll so highly: if you’re a rightwing voter, you don’t have any other viable options.

How Labour and the Greens win it from here

Written By: - Date published: 9:20 am, August 11th, 2014 - 81 comments

A great campaign launch from Labour on the weekend, a couple of bad weeks for National and suddenly there is a chance that David Cunliffe may be our next Prime Minister.  But how does he succeed and what can progressives do to help?

Christine Rankin is standing in Epsom

Written By: - Date published: 10:13 am, August 4th, 2014 - 86 comments

The Conservative Party’s Christine Rankin has announced that she is standing for the Epsom seat.  This will add an extra degree of chaos to what is already an interesting battle.  But will she help the National candidate or the ACT candidate?

Polity: Bye bye, Colin

Written By: - Date published: 10:43 am, July 28th, 2014 - 18 comments

National has all-but confirmed today that there no deal for Colin Craig in East Coast Bays, or for any other Conservative. This was the right thing for them to do, for one simple reason. This decision came down to simple maths. If Key thought the Conservatives could muster double the votes that a decision to back the Conservatives would cost National in the centre-ground, then he should do the deal. If not, he should not. All the stuff about Winston running was a bit of a late sideshow, as the decision had likely already been made.

Conservative idiots

Written By: - Date published: 2:04 pm, July 20th, 2014 - 65 comments

The Conservatives have made a complete cockup of their “bottom line” for making a deal with National about going into government. They want to make referendums legally binding on the government. It is something that no rational government in NZ would agree with because it is impossible from several different criteria. Andrew Geddis points out that it is pretty well impossible without changing the legal basis of our government. I just think that the questions for our referendums have been complete crap.

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