Climate change: I think that we are f&*ked

Written By: mickysavage - Date published: 11:02 am, October 13th, 2022 - 88 comments
Categories: climate change, Environment, farming, labour, national, political parties, science - Tags:

This week a few climate news related interesting things have happened or are predicted.

It was reported that Greenland is facing temperatures 20 degrees above the norm.
Polar air from Antarctica surging north will cause temperatures about 10-15C below average for this time of year across swathes of Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
Ruapehu Alpine Lifts have gone into liquidation. An unseasonal warm and wet winter washed away the snow. There may be a business model to get RAL up and running again but the prospects look grim. The prospects of unseasonally warm and wet winters in the future are far too high.

The RAL experience is interesting. An industry dependent on predictable cold winters and weather patterns is now facing the inevitable conclusion of a warming planet.

This is also the week when the Government released for consultation its plans for pricing of farmhouse emissions.

The main points are:

Modelling shows Government’s proposal should meet Zero Carbon Act 2030 methane reduction target
Government largely adopts farming sector’s proposal to price emissions at the farm level, giving farmers control over their own farming systems with the ability to reduce costs
Revenue recycled back into agriculture sector through new technology, research and incentive payments to farmers
Consultation to work through sequestration, levy setting process, and transition assistance. Consultation open from now until 18 November 2022.

The associated Cabinet Paper noted that the previous National Government’s failure to price farm emissions had cost the sector time and made the transition more difficult.

James Shaw was concerned that the proposal does not provide sufficient certainty that Aotearoa will achieve it climate change and because the funds raised were going to be recycled the proposal was not equitable with the approach taken to emissions pricing for other sector. He was also concerned that emissions reduction targets will be traded off against other considerations when price setting decisions are made.

The farming sector is worried about sequestration credits. A simplified scheme is proposed for the introduction of the scheme. Forested areas of more than one hectare is proposed to be taken into account. Anything smaller than this will increase administration costs substantially.

Beef and Lamb boss Andrew Morrison said this:

We need to further analyse these changes carefully, but one area of immediate concern is the proposed changes to sequestration, which is of real importance to sheep and beef farmers,” says Andrew Morrison, chairman of Beef+Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ).

“We know we have a role to play in addressing climate change and our farmers are among the first to feel the effects of it.

“However, if farmers are to face a price for their agricultural emissions from 2025, it is vital they get proper recognition for the genuine sequestration happening on their farms.”

I do not know what difference enhanced sequestration would make but I suspect it would not make much difference. There is a complex paper setting out the Government analysis of the situation but the results are not immediately clear to me.

Federated Farmers are also concerned.

From Radio New Zealand:

Andrew Hoggard said the government’s proposal was disappointing, and would be a “massive concern”.

“I guess it’s mainly down to the outcomes they’re predicting from this and the modelling and they’re predicting … a 16 to 20 percent hit on sheep and beef incomes and, you know, potentially a 20 percent reduction in terms of sheep meat, a 5 percent reduction across dairy output.

And National has trashed the fragile consensus that had previously been building up.

From Radio New Zealand:

While the government accepted most of the recommendations, a key difference is that Cabinet will set the levies farmers will pay, rather than an independent group with some members selected by the industry.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon said the government’s plan undermined the industry consensus.

“We acknowledge that we have to reduce agriculture emissions,” Luxon told Morning Report.

“What we’ve said is we would support introducing agricultural pricing.

“The question of how you do that is really important. You have to pace that with the technological advances that are coming and then synch it up with that.”

“The thing that I find really, really disturbing is that we’re going to get rid of one-fifth of our sheep and beef farmers by 2030, in less than seven years,” Luxon claimed.

The government acknowledges the plan will be harder for beef and sheep farmers – and it could possibly lead to a 21 percent decrease in revenue by 2030.

Pressed on whether National, if put into government next year, would bring the levy in by 2025, Luxon said he would support what farmers want.

“We want the industry to be able to develop its own solution. We will support whatever the industry wants.

“I trust farmers. I understand that they get this issue.

“What the government proposed yesterday is utterly, utterly unacceptable.”

His comments are even more extreme than National’s formal response to the announcement. Spokesperson Barbara Kuriger said:

“National is committed to emissions targets, including reaching carbon Net Zero by 2050, the Paris Climate Agreement and reductions in agricultural emissions.

“National recognises New Zealand farmers’ significant contribution to the economy. Agriculture earns half this country’s export revenue.

“We are concerned that today’s announcement puts consensus at risk. The Government’s own figures indicate:

Sheep and beef farming could reduce by 20 per cent and dairy by 5 per cent by 2030

Two-thirds of the reduction in emissions in New Zealand will be undone by higher emissions overseas as jobs and production shift offshore

The plan does not allow farmers to earn extra income from some forms of on-farm planting and carbon capture.

“Worryingly, the large falls in sheep production in New Zealand could lead to higher global emissions as more sheep production moves overseas to less-efficient farms.

Reducing stock numbers is inevitable if we are going to reduce the amount of meat that we eat, which is one of the most beneficial things we can do to reduce climate change. The old “New Zealand emissions are lower” claim suggests that we should never do anything because someone somewhere else is emitting more greenhouse gas that we would. Either the world gets on top of this problem or it will be trashed. Waiting for someone else to improve their greenhouse gasses has strong vibes of being a fast follower rather than a leader in climate change.

The consultation will be interesting. I expect that it will engender a great deal of heat. And very little light.

And what is the chances of New Zealand sticking to a programme that will ensure we reach our goals? I think that as a country we are f*(ked.

88 comments on “Climate change: I think that we are f&*ked ”

Comments are now closed

Craig H 1

13 October 2022 at 11:29 am

Not only is it short-sighted environmentally, it's also short-sighted economically. Given the agriculture sector is a major contributor to NZ's exports and foreign exchange earnings, that aspect of the sector needs to be protected. Ideally NZ would move away from that over time, but we haven't made much progress despite it being a strategic priority for governments for decades. Tourism isn't much of a replacement because it's also very prone to emissions issues and likely to plateau or reduce as carbon charges affect profitability of flight routes.

My observation of world trade is that agriculture is fiercely protected by most of our major trading partners and we have found it hard to make much headway in reducing tariffs on NZ agricultural exports. Not to say that it has never happened, but it's hard. We get concessions in trade agreements, but as we saw in the EU FTA, agriculture is usually the last bastion of tariffs.

For a country that wants to protect its agricultural sector from NZ exports, or at least give the appearance of doing that, imposing carbon tariffs are a politically safe way to achieve that. Exempting the NZ agricultural sector from our own regime (either completely or functionally through very low charges or very high credits) is just giving those countries cover to squash NZ exports with carbon tariffs. It would also be a simple reason for other countries to refuse including NZ agriculture in any future FTAs e.g. USA, India (not that they are particularly keen, but this avoids having to even debate the point or make other concessions elsewhere).
KJT 2

13 October 2022 at 11:39 am

Dame Anne Salmond: Seeing the Wood For the Trees | Newsroom

Given that this is a new category in the ETS; that the ETS is already largely dedicated to funding pine trees; and that it would allow many farmers to gain an income from native bush around waterways and eroding gullies, this made perfect sense. That is, until a group of carbon farming lobbyists got busy and changed Cabinet’s minds for them – quite how, no one is certain.

So much for our brave talk of ‘kaitiakitanga’ for native plants and animals. Once again, New Zealand’s ‘clean green image’ is being trashed.
- Incognito 2.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 11:58 am
  
  Aotearoa, The Land Of the Tall Green Pine.
  
  I guess swamp kauri takes too long to harvest and sell off overseas.
Jack 3

13 October 2022 at 11:45 am

I think the Op Ed headline is best applied to Labour rather than the whole on NZ.

Anyone who thinks taxing New Zealand farmers out of existence, transferring production offshore and thereby increasing global emissions is a good idea must have rocks in their head.
- mickysavage 3.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 11:52 am
  
  So what would you do Jack? This policy came largely out of HWEN which Farmers agreed to.
  - X Socialist 3.1.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 12:13 pm
    
    ''This policy came largely out of HWEN ''which Farmers agreed to.''
    
    From 5.12
    
    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/james-shaw-climate-change-minister-seeks-to-clear-up-concerns-have-with-new-emissions-pricing-scheme/
    
    The question may be ”what are other nations going to do to catch up with NZ?”
    - Incognito 3.1.1.1
      
      13 October 2022 at 12:28 pm
      
      I hope you’re not insinuating that NZ is leading the way!?
      - X Socialist 3.1.1.1.1
        
        13 October 2022 at 3:10 pm
        
        Well, yes, I think I maybe, if you are talking about farming practices and production.
        
        https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/pragmatic-proposal-reduce-agricultural-emissions-and-enhance-exports-and-economy
        
        Incognito 3.1.1.1.1.1
        
        13 October 2022 at 3:58 pm
        
        My query was clearly about what you were referring to in your comment @ 3.1.1, i.e., the question at the end.
        
        X Socialist …
        
        14 October 2022 at 9:44 am
        
        Yes, according to Jacinda Ardern. New Zealand farmers will be the first in the world to reduce agricultural emissions.
        
        https://www.odt.co.nz/rural-life/rural-life-other/farming-emissions-scheme-criticised
        
        Talking of things Green. James Shaw doesn't seem to be a happy chappy. The Greens want more action on climate. The Greens are riding high in the polls at the moment. However, I'm betting more internal strife and the whip end of an electoral backlash will see their party decimated at the next election.
        
        Drowsy M. Kram …
        
        14 October 2022 at 10:08 am
        
        However, I'm betting more internal strife and the whip end of an electoral backlash will see their party [Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand] decimated at the next election.
        
        How much are you betting?
        
        Voting patterns to major parties by generation [28 April 2022]
        
        How Green-Party Success Is Reshaping Global Politics
        [5 May 2022]
        
        UK heatwave: Britain's green landscapes turn brown as river flows drop [12 August 2022]
        
        Drenched and anxious, Victorian and Tasmanian communities band together as flood waters rage
        [13 Sept 2022]
        
        https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-crisis
        
        https://www.stuff.co.nz/environment/climate-news
        
        X Socialist …
        
        14 October 2022 at 10:50 am
        
        I basing my opinion on an ever increasing hurting middleclass. It's hard to worry about environmental issues when you don't have enough finances to keep up middleclass pretensions.
        
        The other factor is He Waka Eke Noa. The non farming community is starting to realise damages this will cause to our farming sector. Most countries from what I can see are protecting their agriculture sector. We aren't in my opinion because Labour has little time for agriculture and business. That's my impression. Even though it's our golden goose.
        
        The Greens have no doubt had an impact for the better on environmental issues. The old days of anything goes is over. The only hurdle left is enforcement resources and funding. It remains to be seen how National will deal with these issues once in office. I can only see stagnation.
        
        Drowsy M. Kram …
        
        14 October 2022 at 11:44 am
        
        I basing my opinion on an ever increasing hurting middleclass.
        
        The increasingly ‘squeezed’ or "hurting middleclass" is in a bind, but most will survive, albeit not necessarily in the manner to which they have become accustomed. Fear of joining 'the poors' is palpable.
        
        I can only see stagnation.
        
        Yep, greater social justice is needed on many fronts, whereas NAct (and to a lesser extent Labour) seem opposed to progressive change.
        
        https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/16-08-2022/the-side-eyes-two-new-zealands-the-table
    - KJT 3.1.1.2
      
      13 October 2022 at 12:35 pm
      
      EU regulation on carbon farming and emission trading expected by 2022 (resoilfoundation.org)
      
      The EU initiative should lead to the approval by the Commission of a specific regulation by the end of 2022.
- KJT 3.2
  
  13 October 2022 at 11:59 am
  
  The ones with "rocks in their heads" are the ones, like you, who think failing to address the future sustainability of NZ farming, and kicking the environmental "can down the road" for our children to deal with, is an option.
  
  NZ farmers will not have a future, unless environmental sustainability, including soil depletion, resource use, water quality and emissions are addressed.
  
  The longer NZ farming ignores it, and waits for National to allow the do nothing option, the more costly adaptation is going to be, for all of us.
Incognito 4

13 October 2022 at 11:53 am

The user-pays principle is always applied selectively when it comes to the Holy Cow of farming and the Goose with the Golden Eggs that is tourism.

The Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment estimated the tourism industry produces approximately 12.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2), translating into a cost of $820m per year.

…

It [i.e. an increase the International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy from $35 to $200] would have raised up to $444m annually to fund investment in tourism, conservation, and to help tackle climate change.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130139207/tourism-minister-proposes-international-visitor-levy-increase-to-200-cabinet-says-no

My feeling is that Government’s timidity has turned into jittery [apologies to the grammar police].
satty 5

13 October 2022 at 12:06 pm

It's still possible to top the stupid argument "it's better to farm here than elsewhere":

UK fracking and oil drilling good for environment, claims climate minister

Sounds familiar:

He called the fossil fuel extraction pioneered by Shell and BP in the North Sea “world-leading”.

“Producing [oil and gas] domestically creates only half the emissions around production and transportation than importing it from around the world,” he said. “In terms of the economy and the environment, domestic production is a good thing and we should all get behind it … it is good for the economy, good for jobs and stops us giving money to dubious regimes.”

The committee corrected Stuart on the issue of gas imports. The UK produces 45% of its gas domestically, and imports 38% not from a dubious regime, but from Norway, which has the highest standards in the world for gas extraction and decades ago banned flaring – where the gas is burned off, producing methane emissions and air pollution. Flaring still takes place in North Sea extraction.

So the argument is "it's better to burn our fossil fuels than other countries fossil fuel"… while burning any fossil fuel is actually the problem.

Soon someone has to tell the NZ car drivers (petrol / diesel) that their "way of (polluting) life" has to stop, which can't be too many years away. That's a much larger group than farmers.
- gsays 5.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 8:24 pm
  
  "Soon someone has to tell the NZ car drivers (petrol / diesel) that their "way of (polluting) life" has to stop, which can't be too many years away. That's a much larger group than farmers."
  
  You hit the nail in the head there, the pollies of any hue can say what they want. We can all bicker and debate but it is what we do (or more accurately what we stop doing) that determines our response to CC.
  
  It is going to involve a fair bit of inconvenience.
  - arkie 5.1.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 8:46 pm
    
    What has perpetuated the pollution of our environment is the way fossil-fueled society has addicted us to convenience, almost entirely to the financial benefit of a shrinking few. We have become more 'productive' but are paid less and as such need to spend more of our lives working and then have to rely on said convenience to be able to have a halfway tolerable existence. We need to reclaim our time.
Poission 6

13 October 2022 at 12:08 pm

This week a few climate news related interesting things have happened or are predicted.

Science by Guardian is troublesome at best.

At present weather systems are globally affected by 2 climate drivers the Indian Ocean dipole and the third la nina,Running significant interference is the effects of the Hunga Tonga eruption and the ballistic injection of water vapour into the stratosphere, effecting tropospheric weather due to radiative heating.This also causes a significant ozone imbalance in the stratosphere with disrupted transport to the poles with an enhanced polar vortex.

https://twitter.com/ryans_wx/status/1577029708486959104?cxt=HHwWgIDT6cKK3uIrAAAA

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/mls_h2o_qbo_lat_26hPa.png

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL099381
- Ad 6.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 1:18 pm
  
  Hopefully more late snow for 2023.
Drowsy M. Kram 7

13 October 2022 at 12:23 pm

“I trust farmers. I understand that they get this issue." – Luxon

Climate change: I think that we are f&*ked

Seems about right. Despite and/or because of their "big brains", some of the human passengers on spaceship Earth seem unwilling or unable to change their behaviours.

"He is a really prodigious talent, he's got really complementary skills, he's got a big brain and he does a great work ethic. So he's going to be taking it to Grant Robertson."

"That's the sort of stuff that we've really go to get into and put a big brain to, to clarify and articulate our position incredibly strongly about that."

Only when Govts lack the wherewithal to buffer citizens against negative consequences of global warming will these 'trustworthy' fellow travellers realise that, for all that they might 'get' the issue (global warming -> climate change), they may have left their run a little late.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Limits_to_Growth [1972]
Ad 8

13 October 2022 at 12:48 pm

Pretty easy fail by Cabinet.

It would not have killed Cabinet to agree farmers could nominate a couple onto the pricing board, as the group all agreed.

The government has already legislated similar for the Fonterra pricing board.
- Patricia Bremner 8.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 4:40 pm
  
  Ad,perhaps that is a bargaining chip for the 6 week consultation? It gives the Farming Lobby something to chew on and fight for?
  - Ad 8.1.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 5:05 pm
    
    Hope so.
    
    We sure could do with a win.
    
    (I'm going to avoid doing a justifiable rant against dairy farmers right now)
PsyclingLeft.Always 9

13 October 2022 at 1:35 pm

"This is our nuclear moment for farming."

Groundswell New Zealand co-founder Bryce McKenzie was referring to the world-first scheme that will require farmers to pay for agricultural emissions in some form by 2025 which went out for consultation this week.

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/country/476584/emissions-pricing-rural-nz-ready-to-protest

"Nuclear moment for farming" !? Has the idiot got no sense of irony? Or just no sense? If we dont do something…there will BE no farming. Well, farming as these dinosaurs know it.

Fools.
adam 10

13 October 2022 at 2:04 pm

Just more protection for capitalism at all costs, till it kills us all.

There is no planet b
- Ad 10.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 5:07 pm
  
  Well sure except that it's 81% of our exports that keep us a viable country.
  
  New Zealand food and fibre exports leap to a $53.3 billion result | Beehive.govt.nz
  - Poission 10.1.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 5:22 pm
    
    It only lets us repay debt,the foremost economic problem at present is we are in a worse state then the UK with our current account deficit,as our average debt length is shorter then the UK (17 years)
    
    The IIF suggests a 22% correction in the dollar is necessary due to the KIWI being overpriced.
    
    https://twitter.com/RobinBrooksIIF/status/1575473504887136257?cxt=HHwWgoCzvcazmt0rAAAA
    
    Thats the problem with bullshit borrowing for internal growth,and aligning policy with failed states such as Europe.
    - Ad 10.1.1.1
      
      13 October 2022 at 7:45 pm
      
      Whoever the IIF is can shut the fuck up.
      - Poission 10.1.1.1.1
        
        13 October 2022 at 7:59 pm
        
        Its the international association of banks and financial organisations.They provide modelling studies based on the flows of finance (its where Andrew Bailey dropped the limit bomb on insurance and pension funds with margin calls in the UK gilt market)
        
        NZ treasury bonds as new issues today,were up .75 from 2 months ago,huge renewals next year in time for the budget,and no mention of constraint in fiscal remedies to constrain inflation by the government.
        
        adam 10.1.1.1.1.1
        
        15 October 2022 at 1:30 pm
        
        In other words we should compear ours selves to Sri Lanka and not the UK. Because we don't have their large finical resources to kick back, so it would be way more ideologically pure.
        
        Or in Christian speak, they going to rob the poor to feed the greedy, again.
Leighton 11

13 October 2022 at 2:07 pm

"We will support whatever the industry wants" says Luxon. Never a truer word spoken.
- Patricia Bremner 11.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 4:30 pm
  
  Leighton and…
  "Trust".. that small word with a big meaning.
  
  They don't trust their own.. Groundswell, Leadership and Uncle Tom Cobbley and all.
  
  However, their reluctance and grudging behaviour in the face of all the help they have had, and are offered to get through this, is indicative of their "My way or the Highway" attitudes, and may cause some to rethink their plans to vote these fools in.
  
  How many red stickered homes? how many insurance costs? how many refusals to fund marginal land for any purpose? will it take to peel the dollar signs off eyes?
  
  The Right think this is a winning issue for them. It could be their nemesis both ways.
  
  The young know there is no "Planet B" and our society breakdown is being encouraged by groups wanting to "Be Ungovernable" and "Misinformation".
  
  As during the Pandemic we needed to work together, and in the face of Climate Change, once again National are pandering to factional interests rather than to the greater good.
Cricklewood 12

13 October 2022 at 2:39 pm

We are fucked, NZ tinkering around with farm emmisions is basically moving the deck chairs on the titanic.

Unless humanity suddenly stops building new coal fired power plants and dial back the existing, stops searching for ever more supply of oil/gas and extraction of it, stops burning tremendous amounts fuel fighting stupid wars and stops rampant over consumption.

Basically those things are not going to happen, now we need to turn towards resilience and stop pretending this ship can be turned.
MickeyBoyle 13

13 October 2022 at 3:03 pm

There is not the political or societal will to make the changes necessary to limit or stop humans contributions towards climate change.

Learn to adapt, because we aren't stopping anything.
- AB 13.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 4:36 pm
  
  We need both emissions reduction and effects mitigation. Either one of them without the other is a fail. Oh – and probably atmospheric-capture, removal and storage of CO2 as well. A holy trinity.
  
  We'll most likely risk everything by leaving it all till the last minute – the point at which "virtues are forced upon us by our impudent crimes".
- Ad 13.2
  
  13 October 2022 at 5:17 pm
  
  If you were in government would you bail out Ruapehu Alpine and save Ohakune and Raetehi and Taumaranui and Ruapehu Council?
  - Grey Area 13.2.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 5:59 pm
    
    "Save?" How? The skifields are on the way out. Help the transition away from a climate-based economy as some there appear to be doing, yes. But bail out RLA why? Skifields are a sunset industry.
    - Ad 13.2.1.1
      
      13 October 2022 at 6:44 pm
      
      I remember when farming was a sunset industry, film and television was a sunset industry, tourism was barely a thing, and one of our strongest industries was in ceramics.
      
      The transition that company needs is towards an all-season offering filled with offroad bikes, spa treatments and US$1,200-per-night lodges. Wanaka figured that out a while ago.
      
      If the government can invest in a 100% inland salmon farm as they did today, they can invest in transitioning Ruapehu Inc.
Keith Christie 14

13 October 2022 at 3:49 pm

Those who oppose the emission targets need to look and study carefully to get to know the Bangladesh cricketers, because the way things are going if we along with others do not do something then we may see 10s of millions of climate refugees from the Ganges delta trying to reach the safety of our shores.
Tiger Mountain 15

13 October 2022 at 3:57 pm

Micky Sav is correct. Tipping points have been reached. Bend over and kiss your collective, and your kids arses goodbye.

What too few talk about is that it has to be an anticapitalist campaign to have any chance of rescuing our one planet.
John J Harrison 16

13 October 2022 at 4:45 pm

FACT, New Zealand farmers are the most efficient in the world in turning grass into fibre.

FACT, Ardern has driven this ruinous scheme to be “ The World Leader “ in taxing farmers.

FACT, All overseas media have ridiculed this mad socialist scheme to tax the worlds most efficient food producers.

FACT, On TV 3 the hapless O’Conner confirmed that not all the modeling used to implement this nutty scheme could be accurate.

FACT, O’Conner could not say by how much this would benefit global emissions.

FACT, Ardern is the greatest asset for the opposition going into the election. If she stays as leader Labour will be extremely lucky to retain 15 seats.

Cannot wait for the Curia poll tomorrow.
- Mike the Lefty 16.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 4:56 pm
  
  FACT: What you claim is not fact at all but just your opinion.
- KJT 16.2
  
  13 October 2022 at 4:58 pm
  
  No wonder why we have problems.
  
  When so many people think they can turn their unsubstantiated opinions into FACT, simply by writing FACT! in front of them.
- observer 16.3
  
  13 October 2022 at 5:13 pm
  
  "All overseas media" is my favourite FACT on that wacky list. All of them. He's done his own research. FACT.
- Ad 16.4
  
  13 October 2022 at 5:13 pm
  
  I'd hazard Labour 32% Greens 10% on tomorrow's poll.
  
  At some point the Labour caucus must figure 65 seats now down to 43 seats (approx) means 22 people on $170,000+ are goneburger unless something changes.
- Shanreagh 16.5
  
  13 October 2022 at 5:20 pm
  
  FACT: None of your facts are fact John J Harrison.
  
  RECKONS: All the sentences with FACT at the beginning in John J Harrison's post.
  
  FACT John J Harrison cannot spell the surname of NZ’s Minster of Agriculture.
  
  HYPOTHESIS: That a person not able to spell the name of a key proponent of an argument may also not have a grip on the rest of the argument.
  
  CONCLUSION: Demonstrated in 16 QED
- Anne 16.6
  
  13 October 2022 at 6:36 pm
  
  FACT : David Farrar who owns Curia is a DP linked Nat and his polls are always balanced in such a way to favour the Nats.
  
  FACT: John J Harrison is an idiot.
- AB 16.7
  
  13 October 2022 at 6:50 pm
  
  FACT, Many people are stuffed to the gills with dangerous denialist delusions
  
  FUCT, all of us, I fear
- DB Brown 16.8
  
  14 October 2022 at 6:39 am
  
  FACT – you're a clown.
  - Shanreagh 16.8.1
    
    14 October 2022 at 11:27 am
    
    I can't understand why John J Harrison has not been back to address the reasoned and sometimes funny responses to his unreasoned and humourless post. I really can't.
Stuart Munro 17

13 October 2022 at 5:25 pm

The QMS is a monumental failure – no government action.

The rivers run with poo – no government action.

Lakes become eutrophic, then anoxic, then toxic – no government action.

DoC runs electric vehicles off diesel generators and helicopters Indonesian coal into alpine huts. Huntly burns Indonesian coal. Hydrogen bullshit is tolerated, maybe even incentivized. Nitrate levels are horse traded up into the blue baby zone. And so much more.

Did anybody really expect anything different? Neolibs are soulless destroyers – it's all they know. Just wait till we get a summer like Europe's – our farms are not ready for it. And one is coming, count on it.
- gsays 17.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 8:35 pm
  
  I bet yr fun at parties.
  
  The current government action is enough to make 'em look like they are being effective. The delicate balancing act of looking busy enough but not too busy that you don't get re-elected.
  - Stuart Munro 17.1.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 8:38 pm
    
    So they imagine, no doubt. But no-one’s going to mistake that plan for a weasel even if they do stick a tail on it.
    
    Why can't they just try to do a good job for once in their trivial lives?
    
    It would give them a clear point of difference from the opposition.
    - gsays 17.1.1.1
      
      13 October 2022 at 8:46 pm
      
      At the risk of upsetting a few with their red pom-poms…
      
      I feel when looking back on this administration, in the years to come, 'squandered' will be a common description. Wasted opportunity after wasted opportunity.
      
      ('Scuse me while I struggle up on to a favorite hobby horse) Where is the harm, the downside, the vote loser in settling the nurses pay parity negotiations?
      - Stuart Munro 17.1.1.1.1
        
        13 October 2022 at 9:03 pm
        
        I feel when looking back on this administration, in the years to come, 'squandered' will be a common description.
        
        Pretty much every administration in my lifetime come to that.
lprent 18

13 October 2022 at 5:27 pm
- Polar air from Antarctica surging north will cause temperatures about 10-15C below average for this time of year across swathes of Western Australia, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
For those who still get confused about how cold air going north in the southern hemisphere can indicate a warming climate. Try this experiment.

Go and shut your windows and doors. Turn off aircond and heating, Then open the doors to fridge and freezer.

Over the course of the next few hours, the warmer air inside your house will cool and the cold and frozen items in the fridge and freezer will warm up.

The 'doors' to Antarctica and the Arctic are the air streams (jetstreams) that usually tightly lock in the cold air over those regions. But the jetstreams are highly responsive to changes in temperature – differences between regions of hot and cold what gives them their energy.

As the differences increase, the jetstreams oscillate more than usual because they have more energy to dissipate. So the jetstreams move oscillate closer towards the equator. That unlocks the fridge doors and let more cold air go towards the equator.

Which means that a warming earth climate, causes a cold air to spill out of the fridge to temporarily cool the room – while the freezer loses its cold.
- Poission 18.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 6:22 pm
  
  This event looks dynamic ( redistribution of mass) on a rotating planet across a topological asymmetric continent.A Foehn effect with energy transferred ballistically into the upper stratosphere,allowing the polar night jet to expand to lower latitudes.
  
  You can see the 25c change in the last panel.
  
  https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/chk_t30_sh.gif
  
  The temperature change at the 10hpa level.
  
  https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole10_sh.gif
  
  30hpa
  
  https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/
  
  Looks like wave breaking.
  - Ad 18.1.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 7:43 pm
    
    More late snow 2023 thanks.
  - aj 18.1.2
    
    14 October 2022 at 6:36 pm
    
    There is significant work going into studying energy transfers between the poles and mid-latitudes. New Zealand participated in Targeted Observing Periods earlier this year.
    
    https://yoppfinalsummit.com/#
    
    The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) is the flagship activity of the WWRP Polar Prediction Project, with the aim of enabling a significant improvement in environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, by coordinating a period of intensive observing, modelling, verification, user-engagement and education activities.
    - Poission 18.1.2.1
      
      14 October 2022 at 7:15 pm
      
      The problem with both energy transfers and Jets is a large work in progress with a large part of the physics irreducible due to the huge number of degrees of freedom,it is a mathematical problem beyond the limits of numerical simulation at present.
observer 19

13 October 2022 at 5:28 pm

The global problem is self-evidently as serious as the OP suggests, but I think it is too pessimistic about NZ public opinion.

Here's a summary of the latest polling (more details can be downloaded):

https://iag.co.nz/newsroom/news-releases/climate-poll-2022-release

There are large and growing majorities for action on climate change issues. It is not 2008 any more (the last time National came into power). There is no way National can go into the election promising to pander to ACT on climate change. If they win (not on policy but simply because incumbents lose on the swing to "Other") then they will be signing their own suicide note if they go backwards in government.

Not for one election, but for a generation.
arkie 20

13 October 2022 at 5:45 pm

We can wail and gnash our teeth about the fates our collective inaction have weaved for us all, or we can try to positively contribute to improving our governmental response. First by submitting on this plan, and second, by elected the party that has been asking us to do more for the last 32 years:

https://twitter.com/jamespeshaw/status/1580014058253668354

https://twitter.com/NZGreens/status/1579600775726366720
- Ad 20.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 7:03 pm
  
  You mean the Green Party is going to do a submission against its own cabinet Minister?
  - Incognito 20.1.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 7:20 pm
    
    Impossible! Shaw is not a Cabinet Minister.
    - Ad 20.1.1.1
      
      13 October 2022 at 7:42 pm
      
      "… do a submission against their own Minister responsible for the policy just announced."
      
      It would be at least fun to watch.
      - arkie 20.1.1.1.1
        
        13 October 2022 at 7:57 pm
        
        The Government’s new farmgate emissions pricing scheme, He Waka Eke Noa, was the subject of disagreement around the Cabinet table, with Climate Change Minister James Shaw’s favoured proposal for a cap and trade scheme for methane rejected by Labour ministers.
        
        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130132909/cabinet-overruled-climate-change-minister-james-shaw-on-agriculture-emissions-pricing-plan
        
        Cabinet rejected the Climate Change Ministers policy choice. The submissions one can make are to the consultation on the proposed pricing plan, chosen by the Labour MPs in Cabinet.
        
        We can all make a submission, It’s called participating in democracy. If we all did it we would out number the lobbyists.
      - Incognito 20.1.1.1.2
        
        13 October 2022 at 7:59 pm
        
        I think Shaw may be counting on those submissions 🙂
      - gsays 20.1.1.1.3
        
        13 October 2022 at 8:37 pm
        
        “You mean the Green Party is going to do a submission against its own cabinet Minister?”
        
        TBF they, and he are used to it, as the co-leadership process showed.
Binders full of Women 21

13 October 2022 at 6:01 pm

I feel for Wairoa. Firstly- firstly carbon farming is turning perfect farms into forests owned by polluting giants like Ikea that will never harvest. Secondly the HWEN clusterfuck will mean 20% of farms cease trading. The freezing works will close, hundreds of skilled jobs will go in a Maori town. There will be no replacement Green jobs. P will take over, gangs and shootings. Urban elite Greenies won't care cos they got the feelz of cycling to their comms jobs.
- Ad 21.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 7:02 pm
  
  Go through every single town outside of Auckland, Wellington, and Dunedin: those are where the Greens get their votes. So they're fine at 10%. They can criticise Cabinet all they like.
  
  But everywhere outside them is now fertile field for National and Act to keep cutting Labour down from 33% into the 20% range.
- Shanreagh 21.2
  
  13 October 2022 at 10:24 pm
  
  Wairoa got hacked to pieces in the environmental restructuring way back in the late 1980s/90s. Up until then there were jobs sufficient to support, for want of a better word, a middle class of both Maori & Pakeha (teachers, working in branches & sub-branches of Maori Affairs, Post office, stock firms. All of these had regular changes of people as they transferred in and out. We had, as well, jobs in the works, jobs on large sheep farms/stations, fishing boats and in Forestry.
  
  After 1987 etc, no Forestry with Forest managers living on site and employing locals. The foreign owned owned Forestry companies had no on site workers, pruning, thinning and other seasonal jobs were done by workers who were flown/driven in as gangs from other places and then just as quickly flown/driven out and onto another place in NZ.
  
  We lost our rail. We have the same Forestry companies thinking that the best way to export is to export a commodity, so logs come down from the Wairoa hinterland over fragile roads on trucks too large for the roads to cope with. There is no secondary processing. We have forestry buying up formerly productive farm and putting the countryside to sleep. No small country towns/settlements. No small schools so kids a bussed in for miles to schools.
  
  Also with a large Maori population and others who have been there for generations and don't want to upsticks and move leaving their Turangawaewae so are stuck.
  
  Wairoa is out on a limb. Difficult to get to.
  
  Even though I was born and brought up there (so vested interest), I believe the strikes at Wairoa have been of a greater magnitude than other small towns that at least may have a decent road in and out. One where you don't have to grit your teeth and drive so as not to be put off by logging trucks cutting corners or not allowing traffic past.
  
  P is encroaching now. We have the sons and grandsons, gt grandsons of upstanding Wairoa families in gangs. We even had one these fleeing Chch recently. The family is well known and is/was respected.
  
  The neolib experiment was a blight on Wairoa when it happened and continues to this day.
  
  I somehow think though that any Green jobs would be welcome. Bringing back planting, pruning jobs for Forestry instead of having mobile gangs could make a difference and even a wood processing plant if we had rail. Choosing to sequester in pines is so unimaginative. There must be other growing plants that could be used.
  - Binders full of Women 21.2.1
    
    14 October 2022 at 2:55 pm
    
    Thanks for that Shan— I would disagree on one point and offer a slant on the trees. Disagreement– rail.. Wairoa is connected to Napier by rail but it's been an expensive folly. I think the initial repair was $6Mil.. and that bought about 6 train trips in the first year. The Wairoa north to Gisborne line is completely blown out and a repair would be 000s of millions… adding millions per year- it's now been wrecked a decade. I find the logging trucks really courteous and easy to pass.. if you are patient. Re the trees..never mind the 'no secondary processing' most of the new stuff won't even be primary processed ie carbon banks that grow old and die and fall over. The regions are screwed — to the urban academic elites 100,000 beneficiaries between Wairoa and East Cape means nothing and can be forgotten as long as we can brag on the world stage. Te Urewera is now a neglected possum shit covered backwater but that's a different story
Mat Simpson 22

13 October 2022 at 6:09 pm

" Life on Earth on brink of catastrophe with one million species 'at risk of extinction' "

Wildlife populations have fallen nearly 70% globally since 1970, the World Wildlife Fund’s latest Living Planet Report reveals – equivalent to a wipe-out of everyone in Europe, the Americas, Africa, Oceania and China.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/one-million-species-risk-extinction-28223916

" Severe marine heatwaves, as well as hotter, more acidic waters are on the rise in the latest stocktake of New Zealand's marine environment "

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/476583/marine-heatwaves-and-rising-sea-levels-report-details-impact-on-nz

" Plastic waste and microplastics were a major problem – with increasing evidence microplastics were widespread throughout the marine environment "

“The report tells a decades-long story of government neglect when it comes to the health of our oceans.

“The health of our oceans is deteriorating at an alarming rate, and we’re at risk of losing precious habitats forever. Politicians have known about this for decades and many have had a chance to stop it "

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130159043/costal-communities-biodiversity-at-risk-as-ocean-hit-by-climate-change-and-pollution

To quote Mickey Savage our future environment and future generations who will be reliant on the condition of the planet to survive are f****d

The only thing that we give protection and care to is CAPITALISIM , GREED , PROFIT.
- Ad 22.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 6:49 pm
  
  I always hope it gets worse
  
  (282) George Carlin-Natural Disasters – YouTube
  
  Stay for the full 9 minutes it’s Carlin at his expansive best.
  - Drowsy M. Kram 22.1.1
    
    14 October 2022 at 7:40 am
    
    I always hope it gets worse
    
    No need to hope, our future is assured – baked in!
    
    Climate change has come for the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter [29 Sept 2022]
    The consequences of climate change are coming faster than most governments, policymakers, and even scientists anticipated. “The reality we’re facing now is that the carbon emissions that are already in the atmosphere are baked in for a period of time,” said Jonas Nahm, professor of energy, resources, and environment at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “Things are going to get worse before they get better, even if we do everything to meet the Paris agreement models.”
barry 23

13 October 2022 at 7:13 pm

The farmers' groups have played exactly the same game as always. When presented with the knowledge that something will happen they engage and negotiate to get the minimum change possible. At the same time they continue to undermine even that in the hope that an incoming National government will roll it back.

At the same time they ask for assistance to recover from climate-change induced disasters, and then criticise the government for not doing enough when they get it.
- Ad 23.1
  
  13 October 2022 at 7:40 pm
  
  As the most effective lobby in New Zealand, the farmers will win on this one.
  - Patricia Bremner 23.1.1
    
    13 October 2022 at 9:05 pm
    
    No, I think farmers' internal divisions will show, and people will have greater expectations of them re climate.
    
    We are witnessing freakish weather all over the planet, and producing food working with nature is being better understood, yet becoming more risky.
    
    The greed of some was on display with the feed lots, the cows up to their stiffle joints in mud….
    
    Most Farmers do NOT agree with Groundswell.
    - barry 23.1.1.1
      
      16 October 2022 at 7:05 pm
      
      Most Farmers do NOT agree with Groundswell.
      
      But they won't say it in public. How many farmers will be out opposing the protests?
- Hunter Thompson II 23.2
  
  14 October 2022 at 9:31 am
  
  Some farmers are digging (or should that be have dug?) their own graves.
  
  One thing is certain; we are all in this together. It is humanity as a species that is threatened by climate change, so it matters not if you are Maori or Mongolian, Inuit or Indian.
Shanreagh 24

13 October 2022 at 10:53 pm

The old “New Zealand emissions are lower” claim suggests that we should never do anything because someone somewhere else is emitting more greenhouse gas that we would. Either the world gets on top of this problem or it will be trashed. Waiting for someone else to improve their greenhouse gasses has strong vibes of being a fast follower rather than a leader in climate change.

I don't agree we should do this to be a leader but because it an inherently good and far-sighted thing to do to. Something that is right for our country and its citizens including those to come, who deserve a bright future just as our parents hoped we would have.

We need to keep hold of the idea of doing something because it is the right thing to do?

I am sure that the Liberal Govt* (NB in charge of the breaking up of the great land estates, subdividing and re-offering in smaller one person farms) ) in the 1890s and the Labour Govt in the 1930s did not get themselves all tied up in knots because

um ……we may be moving ahead of the rest of the world

um ……some people may not like it

um ……"it's better to farm here than elsewhere": (from Satty above)

*The 1890 New Zealand general election was one of New Zealand's most significant. It marked the beginning of party politics in New Zealand with the formation of the Liberal Government, which was to enact major welfare, labour and electoral reforms, including giving the vote to women. (wiki)
Stephen D 25

14 October 2022 at 7:11 am

There is a scene in Lord of the Rings where Sauron laud waste to the Southlands using fire to turn it into Mordor. Apocalyptic.
My immediate thought was this is exactly what will happen to our planet if fuckwits like Luxon have their say.
RP Mcmurphy 26

14 October 2022 at 11:22 am

Hi Mickey S. I agree.
aj 27

14 October 2022 at 4:57 pm

Just flew on the direct ANZ flight Auckland to Invercargill today.

The most scenic flight in New Zealand on a good day, it was only clear from Mt Taranaki south (Auckland cloud and rain!)

The aircraft comes down just off the West Coast with stunning views of the Southern Alps, and Fox and Franz Joseph Glaciers and the snowfields that feed them. I recall visiting both glaciers in the 70's and 80's and they are now in a spectacular and accelerating retreat.

This short video shows "The Mer de Glace, one of the most famous glaciers in the Alps. In 1985 a gondola was built to access the glacier. Unfortunately, like many others, this glacier is shrinking. Each year, steps must be added to walk down to it. Here we are at the level of the glacier when I was skiing down the Vallée Blanche before the installation of the gondola. A few more years and there will be no ice left in this part of the valley"
RP Mcmurphy 28

14 October 2022 at 9:41 pm

why us xi jinping and the chinese communist party not being held to account for that countries atrocities perpetrated on the global environment?
georgecom 29

15 October 2022 at 6:05 pm

2003 a research levy was proposed on farming for research into reducing farming Emissions. The farming lobby and National under dishonest Don Brash opposed it and complained about it. 2008 the rest of the economy went into the Emissions Trading Scheme whilst agriculture was exempt. 9 years of nothing from 2008-2017 under a do nothing John Key National Goverment. 2 decades later a new scheme proposed, more complaining and opposition from elements of the farming lobby and the National Party. Climate change hasn't been resolved in those 2 decades, things haven't gotten better. 2 decades of respite from the costs of agriculture emissions. No more road to kick the can down.