It appears that we get much more bang for our buck with respect to AGW (if true) by cleaning up the soot rather than the C02. Plus there are health side-benefits as well. What environmentally concious person could possibly argue with cleaning up the dirty smoke? This seems much more practical and cost effective than emmission trading schemes and the like.
Maybe the hysteria about C02 is being misdirected.
There is no ‘hysteria’ about CO2, it is a scientific fact that it traps heat and it is also a fact we are pumping billions of tonnes of the stuff into the atomsphere.
Soot, which is mainly carbon (note, not carbon dioxide) also has a greenhouse effect. Of course we should reduce it as possible.
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output. As we’ve become cleaner that cooling effect has reduced and global temperuate increase has taken off.
also interestingly. Soylent Green, the movie made in 1973 and set in 2022 has the temperature hotter than now due to the greenhouse effect.
HS: CFCs are responsible for about 12% of AGW. There’s not much more that can be done now – they are heavily regulated (under the Montreal Protocol) and atmospheric concentrations are falling. Because they are such stable molecules we’ll have to wait for a long while (decades, even centuries for some kinds of CFC) for them to all break down.
Steve, even if we doubled the amount of C02 in the atmosphere, the effect would be neglible if C02 was the sole cause. However, it is well recognised that AGW is based more around the secondary effects of increased water vapour that is thought to occur due to the small temperature increase caused by C02. However, it is not well understood what the balance is between positive and negative forcings that determine climate sensitivity. This is clear when we compare the worst-case scenario from the IPCC of around 59 cm increase with the predictions of Huber of up to 100 metres increase in sea level:
It seems clear that there is far to much noise in the models to draw any firm conclusions. Also, it is accepted that endevours such as the Kyoto protocol are going to have negligible effect on AGW (if true) in any case. On the other hand, reducing soot is going to have an immediate and substantial effect according to the NASA report I cited. Since we are in a zero-sum game so far as our financial resources are concerned, it seems a no-brainer to direct our energy into something that is going to have a substantial effect (if AGW is correct) and have a positive effect on the environment generally compared to a dubious strategy such as Kyoto.
tsmithfield:
The Herald article is interesting. The paleoclimatologists reckon that the world could warm up a lot more than IPCC model’s would have us believe, which is certainly a worry.
Their archeological evidence is pretty telling. But there is a big difference between the Eocene greenhouse and the modern one. The greenhouse in the Eocene was supposedly cranked up by the result of a sudden release of methane clathrates. When this happens, the amount of methane released can be enormous, and it’s autocatalytic because it causes more global warming which tends to melt more clathrates.
But our greenhouse is not so methane-driven. I am pretty sure that most anthropogenic emissions are C02 (though methane and CFCs are significant). Maybe in the Eocene there was some specifically methane-related that led to the greater warming? Something to do with cloud formation perhaps … it could be very hard to know.
In any case, I don’t see why the possibility of cheap reductions in black carbon emissions should absolve us of the need to make (more expensive) reductions in C02 and methane as well?
Con: The question is what caused a state change and released those methane clathrates. Once it starts, it is likely to be a runaway.
It’d have to either be a increase in temperature or a decrease in pressure or maybe (remote possibility) a change in chemical conditions.
Look – we’re doing the temperature change right now with our releases of greenhouse gases. We’re also managing to warm the oceans, and warmer water is less dense – ie less pressure maybe. Oh and the chemical composition of the oceans is changing.
Perhaps all of those things happened in the Eocene and other periods – from vulcanism is most likely. But if anything triggers a state change in the MC’s then we will really start to see a change. Guess what we’re on a path to do just that.
BTW: The IPCC estimates are the most conservative options from the most established evidence. Most people with some understanding of earth sciences (like me) or climatology consider that they give the best possible option. To date their estimates keep getting worse on each iteration and as the evidence mounts.
Echoing what Lynn says above – the IPCC is essentially hobbled by the requirement to appear “rational and restrained”. There are numerous scientists who are members of the panel on record stating that their actual views are not represented accurately, as the “agreed statement” was watered down to a far less dramatic version of reality to avoid sowing the seeds of hysteria or (more likely) threatening IPCC credibility and allowing opponents to brand them as loonies. It is incredible the damage an oil industry exec can do just by appearing on TV and saying “100m? pfft. You’d have to be an idiot to believe that”.
You’ll note that their predictions have been becoming steadily worse and more forcefully phrased. Expect that trend to continue.
People like to believe the safe option much more than they like to sit down with a calculator and work out how much water is in the antarctic icecap.
It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century. I think like the CO2 hysteria being drummed up for political purposes you just made that little bit of BS up to support your assertion that CO2 is the big scary heat up the planet monster you want it to be.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.
Here’s the context of what steve said …
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output.
(emphasis mine)
Look at what the ‘this’ burt wants a link for refers to. Go on. I’ll wait.
Got it?
Yet he paraphrased it as ” scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.”
And if you look at the temperature graphs here there is some interesting correlations that only the most gullible could believe are coincidence.
Still it’s not trendy to “not be in control” and the human ego is so big that naturally if there is anything changing on earth we must be responsible. If the cause of the change is outside of our control (or even influence) then we don’t get to take the place as being the most important thing on earth when it comes to climate.
Agreed, you cannot control a non-linear, complex system. You must observe carefully and humbly manage outcomes as all inputs will have unintended consequences.
Nobody knows the future except that there will be change, nature will always adjust, but humanity is less flexible and mobile.
We are approaching the historical maximum interglacial temperature, and temperatures could still go up, or they could go down. We don’t know if solar activity will drive this, or what kind of things might happen at increased co2 levels (as all global warming has eventually become global cooling and vice versa)
I did ask for a link, but I found one for you here in this article by Bob Carter.
The salient facts are these. First, the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2.
8 years is too short a period compared with the noise and variation in the data. If for example I stated that for the last 30 minutes the temperature in my room here in Wellington was a very stable 23 degC, and therefore there was no such thing as winter… you would conclude I was a total doofus.
In mid January (in NZ) any conclusion that there is no winter would make you a doofus.
However have I got this correct, we needed the ETS rushed through under urgency because we needed to act really really quickly on climate change yet 8 years is too short a time frame to make valid observations about climate data.
Three or four months of cross party consultation would take too long but 30 years is a valid observation period – it’s not about science is it !
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models”
By noise I mean margins of error due to uncertainties in the data. Given that predictions range from centimetres of sea level rise to one hundred metres of sea level rise, then it seems that the noise must be quite high.
One source for noise is the heat-island effects associated with growing cities. While statistical corrections are made for these effects, it remains questionable whether the corrections are adequate. Also, rural stations have been dropped out over recent years meaning that part of the observed rise has at least in part been an artifact of the distribution of stations rather than necessarily real increases in temperature.
Here is are several links which show an exchange between a AGW skeptic and believer on the topic that arose from a media interview.
Another source of uncertainty is the sensitivity of the system to increases in C02. This depends on the balance between positive and negative forcings in clouds which is still not well understood. Here is a peer reviewed article on the subject.
tsmithfield. The whole system is uncertain – it is inherently complex and chaotic. That is the nature of natural systems. If we had a few hundred years of good observations under a reasonably steady state system we might be able to have a nice predictive model. As it is we have less than a 30 years of good data, less than hundred years of reasonable data, and completely patchy data prior to that. This is in a system that requires hundreds of years to show effects to the full.
As it is we’re working in a system with limited long-term measurement and where the system is already changing. What is certain is that we are changing the climate, and quite drastically and with uncertain outcomes. The only thing you can be absolutely sure of, is that the effects are underestimated in the IPCC estimates. Effectively we are venus-forming (ie not terra-forming) the earth with no accurate idea of predicted outcomes.
Unlike what I can see of your level of scientific knowledge, I actually know something about earth sciences. It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes. That is the action of a mindless fool. I can just see you wanting to bring back DDT on the basis that a full causal link wasn’t proved between its use and the long term cumulative effects – we didn’t wait long enough to observe them. The same logic applies as for your pitiful attempts above to do the same thing. By your premise we shouldn’t do anything about birth control either. It isn’t absolutely certain that a child will result from sex
For instance we currently have no idea if things will get warmer overall or colder in different areas. It depends on ‘trigger’ effects in ocean currents like the Gulf stream with things like fresh water dilution. It is climate change – it probably will involve global warming in the short-term. It will probably involve local cooling, especially in places like northern europe that get a large proportion of their heat from ocean current transfers.
It is only the accidental comics of the climate deniers who look for simple and known solutions.. Why? I think it is probably because they are quite simple people. In my experience – too simple to adsorb the science even if you tell them in worlds of few syllables…
If you want to look at major effects (rather than minor (almost trivial) like the ones you mentioned (always favorites of the CC commedians)) , then have a look at the summary in the Economist about the ocean adsorption rates. Effectively the biggest CO2 adsorption system is filling rapidly. I’ll give you a hint – figure out how what volume of CO2 was required to move the pH of the volume of the oceans. The figure out how a rising pH starts to slow the adsorbtion rates.
Personally I suspect that the calculations are beyond you – prove me wrong.. But I suspect we’ll just get subjected to links to more pathetic attempts at people trying to talk about things they don’t understand.
Iprent “It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes”
You assume that I propose doing nothing. This assumption cannot validly be drawn from what I have said.
Rather than focusing on the problem of C02, I think there are a lot of smaller problems we should be focusing on that have clear determinable benefits. The sum result will be to deal with the carbon problem, if in fact it is a problem. Let me give you some examples:
1. Non-carbon based solutions to energy to mitigate the effect of peak oil.
2. Developing incentive schemes that prevent the burning down of world forests to preserve our environment and prevent extinction of species.
3. Reducing soot output. As I pointed out above, a recent NASA study shows this would have a much more immediate effect on climate, and also provide considerable health benefits.
The sort of initiatives mentioned above have immediate benefits for society apart from any carbon reduction and would be much easier to sell. I think most skeptics would agree with these type of initiatives on the basis of their immediate benefits, if nothing else. The sum effect would be a dramatic reduction in carbon output without having to resort to dubious schemes such as the Kyoto Protocol which has carbon reduction as its only goal.
I think a lot of the skepticism from people such as myself can be laid out the feet of
the wide-eyed hysteria and deception propounded by many AGW enthusiasts such as Hansen. I think a lot of this sort of stuff is going to lead to AGW fatigue amongst the world population, and the message of the skeptics will become more appealing as a result. This would truly be sad as the issue should be decided on the basis of science, and not a popularity contest. However, AGW proponents have turned this into a popularity contest through scientists mixing science with politics. Unfortunately, if this sort of strategy is relied on, then the wheels of popularity can turn in the other direction, pushing the direction of politics along with it.
Arggh – how about keeping to a single handle. It is always hard to keep track when people shift around.
Have a read of the economist article, or even better find the editorial that went with it. C02 generation is proving to not just be a atmospheric problem. In a lot of ways the acidification of the water systems is probably even more likely to cause run-away effects.
The problem is that at present much less than a third of the generated carbon has been getting into the atmosphere for the 20th. The problem looks like it has been winding up in the oceans from a variety of methods.
The problem is that is likely cause a widespread shift in a lot of largely unknown systems. For instance it causes de-calcification which releases CO2 from calcium carbonates. That is the kind of thing that is likely to cause run-away effects before shifting to a new equilibrium. None of that is currently factored in the IPCC because the measurements were just re-performed to compare to 1970’s data.
The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now. It is taking a immense risk to carry on as if the biosphere and geology can continue soaking up the current outputs without hitting trigger events.
Short-term pallatives are just dangerous bearing in mind the unknown risk levels from what we don’t know. This is one of the few areas that I whole-heartedly agree with teh greens.
Iprent “The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now.”
Well, I think measures such as eliminating fossil fuels as an energy source would achieve exactly that goal. So would finding ways for reducing deforrestation, thus increasing carbon sinks. However, these types of solutions also solve more tangible immediate problems. They are not merely “short-term palliatives” for the C02 issue. So, I think there are a lot of aspects we would agree on.
The problem with focussing on C02 as the problem is that it can lead to other fairly speculative solutions such as painting the world white.
This sort of solution simply churns up lots of resources with little other tangible benefit. To me, this seems much more risky, because, as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty in the chaotic climate system as you say. However, solutions that stand on their own feet, regardless of whether AGW forecasts are correct or not seem to be no-brainers, and should gain acceptance readilly.
You criticised me previously for not being a scientist. That is fair, as I do not have a degree in a climate-related field. For this reason, I describe myself as a climate agnostic, having reached no firm conclusion either way as I do not see myself as qualified to do so. From my reading I am aware of a lot of spurious stuff on both sides of the debate which tends to make me suspicious with extreme claims.
I mentioned Hansen, earlier. Here is an example of how his temperature adjustments reflect against Wellington’s temperature record:
This is typical of temperature adjustment techniques Hansen has used more generally where earlier temperatures are adjusted downwards, and later temperatures are adjusted upwards, producing an apparently artificial warming trend. Sorry, can’t find my link to the article right now.
This type of behaviour does not enhance credibility on either side. When reading articles on either side of the debate I prefer to see they are based on sound science and well researched.
Busy pushing code together at present, so I’ll respond later more fully.
But the real issue is that humans have been treating the biosphere as being effectively infinite for a long time, and that their environmental effects were relatively limited. You maybe could have argued that when the worlds population was less than 1 billion in the 19th century.
Generally we’re getting quite effective at handling local effects at a national level. The pollution goes up during developmental bursts and gets fixed by affluence. This is much the same as what happens with population and medical care.
We are still ratshit at handling problems are a global level. It doesn’t matter if it is finance companies rorting their way around varying legal frameworks, trade disputes of global pollution. In the latter case there is a really depressing track record over time – only the CFC’s stand out as being moderately acceptable.
We’re now approaching 7 billion and where most people on earth are using far more resources and excreting far more waste than they did prior to 1900. We’re probably going to touch 11 billion by 2050 (which there is a moderate probability that I’ll see – born in 1959 – I’d be 90’ish). It will probably remain at that level for a long time.
The effects of humanity are getting quite intense in the atmosphere and water systems which are both cross-borders. That will intensify as the population continues to rise and affluence levels spread.
To say that I don’t give a stuff about exact measurements or pallative techniques would be an understatement. If you look back at paleogeology, the effects of what we are doing to the biosphere are well known and well understood – it makes species at the top of the food chain extinct. The only thing we don’t know is what happens when we do it as fast as we are doing it now.
Bearing in mind the 20-30 year societal and infrastructure lead times for new technologies (and techniques) to spread. We need the alternates to old technologies being developed now. Rather than having rising states develop on a basis of coal liquidification (a 1940’s technology) for their transport needs and thereby intensifying the problems, we need better technologies going down the engineering path now.
The developed countries need to be involved in setting up the framework to develop those techs now because they are the societies with
a) the economic surpluses to do it.
b) the responsibility for causing the existing level of damage.
The should do it because if they don’t, then the rest of the world population will go affluent really fast using the existing technologies. That will directly impact on us because our societies are far more suseptible to disruption (essentially any more compex system is far more suscepible to chaotic environments than simplier ones).
Frankly the CCDs like those comedians in Act should really be forced to do some learning of economics. If they’d bother to look at the downstream effects of affluence and population on the biosphere they’re exploiting using their own economic philosphies, they’d be worth listening to. Instead what we get is wishful thinking based on the idea that it all going to be someones elses problem.
NOISE.. an interesting word which my desktop Collins posits derivation from Latin’s ‘nausea’. Added thereto several strains in respect of definition:
1. loud shouting, clamor;
2. sound ie the noise of rain;
3. any unwanted electrical signal within a communication system
Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.
Which is why you can now understand I felt impelled to ask you what you meant in your use of the term. In doing so, you will now realise, we have eliminated an uncertainty of communication.
That said, and taking account your perceptible need to ‘rely on science’ per the exchange/s with lprent I’d like to suggest that in the course of commentary to this particular blog you more than most have shifted very satisfactorily away from denialist’s strategem of deliberately NOISING in rumors rather than reports.
May this continue to be the case.
Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers? Think about it.
Northpaw: “Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers?”
As more of our energy is derived from non-oil sources, there will be more oil available for other ancillary purposes such as plastics etc. If this happens incrementally at a sufficient rate then oil should be available for ancillary purposes such as plastics etc for a long time. If the concern is greenhouse gases from burning oil, then it is preferable for oil to be locked up in forms such as plastics etc that does not enter the atmosphere.
thank you for the reply.. for the attempted answer in one part and limited response in another.. Now not to labor this(pun unintended) you wrote: Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise’. which to my eyes and mind states quite clearly that ‘margin of error’ is other than “noise” — not noise itself!
Use of ‘statistical noise’ in your original commentary might have helped somewhat though I’d hasten to add the term so used would make a nonsense of your two examples in relation to sea-level rise. Else revealed them for what they were—misleading at best and incomprehensible otherwise.
If I may allow me add that either you specify context in your use of terminology or not use another’s jargon at all without reference or linking to it.
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Today is a special member's morning, scheduled to make up for the government's theft of member's days throughout the year. First up was the first reading of Greg Fleming's Crimes (Increased Penalties for Slavery Offences) Amendment Bill, which was passed unanimously. Currently the House is debating the third reading of ...
We're going backwardsIgnoring the realitiesGoing backwardsAre you counting all the casualties?We are not there yetWhere we need to beWe are still in debtTo our insanitiesSongwriter: Martin Gore Read more ...
Willis blamed Treasury for changing its productivity assumptions and Labour’s spending increases since Covid for the worsening Budget outlook. Photo: Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Wednesday, December 18 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast above ...
Today the Auckland Transport board meet for the last time this year. For those interested (and with time to spare), you can follow along via this MS Teams link from 10am. I’ve taken a quick look through the agenda items to see what I think the most interesting aspects are. ...
Hi,If you’re a New Zealander — you know who Mike King is. He is the face of New Zealand’s battle against mental health problems. He can be loud and brash. He raises, and is entrusted with, a lot of cash. Last year his “I Am Hope” charity reported a revenue ...
Probably about the only consolation available from yesterday’s unveiling of the Half-Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) is that it could have been worse. Though Finance Minister Nicola Willis has tightened the screws on future government spending, she has resisted the calls from hard-line academics, fiscal purists and fiscal hawks ...
The right have a stupid saying that is only occasionally true:When is democracy not democracy? When it hasn’t been voted on.While not true in regards to branches of government such as the judiciary, it’s a philosophy that probably should apply to recently-elected local government councillors. Nevertheless, this concept seemed to ...
Long story short: the Government’s austerity policy has driven the economy into a deeper and longer recession that means it will have to borrow $20 billion more over the next four years than it expected just six months ago. Treasury’s latest forecasts show the National-ACT-NZ First Government’s fiscal strategy of ...
Come and join myself and CTU Chief Economist for a pop-up ‘Hoon’ webinar on the Government’s Half Yearly Economic and Fiscal Update (HYEFU) with paying subscribers to The Kākā for 30 minutes at 5 pm today.Jump on this link on YouTube Livestream to watch our chat. Don’t worry if ...
In 1998, in the wake of the Paremoremo Prison riot, the Department of Corrections established the "Behaviour Management Regime". Prisoners were locked in their cells for 22 or 23 hours a day, with no fresh air, no exercise, no social contact, no entertainment, and in some cases no clothes and ...
New data released by the Treasury shows that the economic policies of this Government have made things worse in the year since they took office, said NZCTU Economist Craig Renney. “Our fiscal indicators are all heading in the wrong direction – with higher levels of debt, a higher deficit, and ...
At the 2023 election, National basically ran on a platform of being better economic managers. So how'd that turn out for us? In just one year, they've fucked us for two full political terms: The government's books are set to remain deeply in the red for the near term ...
AUSTERITYText within this block will maintain its original spacing when publishedMy spreadsheet insists This pain leads straight to glory (File not found) Read more ...
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi are saying that the Government should do the right thing and deliver minimum wage increases that don’t see workers fall further behind, in response to today’s announcement that the minimum wage will only be increased by 1.5%, well short of forecast inflation. “With inflation forecast ...
Oh, I weptFor daysFilled my eyesWith silly tearsOh, yeaBut I don'tCare no moreI don't care ifMy eyes get soreSongwriters: Paul Rodgers / Paul Kossoff. Read more ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Bob HensonIn this aerial view, fingers of meltwater flow from the melting Isunnguata Sermia glacier descending from the Greenland Ice Sheet on July 11, 2024, near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland. According to the Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE), the ...
In August, I wrote an article about David Seymour1 with a video of his testimony, to warn that there were grave dangers to his Ministry of Regulation:David Seymour's Ministry of Slush Hides Far Greater RisksWhy Seymour's exorbitant waste of taxpayers' money could be the least of concernThe money for Seymour ...
Willis is expected to have to reveal the bitter fiscal fruits of her austerity strategy in the HYEFU later today. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/TheKakaMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy around housing, climate and poverty on Tuesday, December 17 in The Kākā’s Dawn Chorus podcast ...
On Friday the government announced it would double the number of toll roads in New Zealand as well as make a few other changes to how toll roads are used in the country. The real issue though is not that tolling is being used but the suggestion it will make ...
The Prime Minister yesterday engaged in what looked like a pre-emptive strike designed to counter what is likely to be a series of depressing economic statistics expected before the end of the week. He opened his weekly post-Cabinet press conference with a recitation of the Government’s achievements. “It certainly has ...
This whooping cough story from south Auckland is a good example of the coalition government’s approach to social need – spend money on urging people to get vaccinated but only after you’ve cut the funding to where they could get vaccinated. This has been the case all year with public ...
And if there is a GodI know he likes to rockHe likes his loud guitarsHis spiders from MarsAnd if there is a GodI know he's watching meHe likes what he seesBut there's trouble on the breezeSongwriter: William Patrick Corgan Read more ...
Here’s a quick round up of today’s political news:1. MORE FOOD BANKS, CHARITIES, DOMESTIC VIOLENCE SHELTERS AND YOUTH SOCIAL SERVICES SET TO CLOSE OR SCALE BACK AROUND THE COUNTRY AS GOVT CUTS FUNDINGSome of Auckland's largest foodbanks are warning they may need to close or significantly reduce food parcels after ...
Iain Rennie, CNZMSecretary and Chief Executive to the TreasuryDear Secretary, Undue restrictions on restricted briefings This week, the Treasury barred representatives from four organisations, including the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions Te Kauae Kaimahi, from attending the restricted briefing for the Half-Year Economic and Fiscal Update. We had been ...
This is a guest post by Tim Adriaansen, a community, climate, and accessibility advocate.I won’t shut up about climate breakdown, and whenever possible I try to shift the focus of a climate conversation towards solutions. But you’ll almost never hear me give more than a passing nod to ...
A grassroots backlash has forced a backdown from Brown, but he is still eyeing up plenty of tolls for other new roads. And the pressure is on Willis to ramp up the Government’s austerity strategy. Photo: Getty ImagesMōrena. Long stories short, the six things that matter in Aotearoa’s political economy ...
Hi all,I'm pretty overwhelmed by all your messages and emails today; thank you so very much.As much as my newsletter this morning was about money, and we all need to earn money, it was mostly about world domination if I'm honest. 😉I really hate what’s happening to our country, and ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 8, 2024 thru Sat, December 14, 2024. Listing by Category Like last week's summary this one contains the list of articles twice: based on categories and based on ...
I started writing this morning about Hobson’s Pledge, examining the claims they and their supporters make, basically ripping into them. But I kept getting notifications coming through, and not good ones.Each time I looked up, there was another un-subscription message, and I felt a bit sicker at the thought of ...
Once, long before there was Harry and Meghan and Dodi and all those episodes of The Crown, they came to spend some time with us, Charles and Diana. Was there anyone in the world more glamorous than the Princess of Wales?Dazzled as everyone was by their company, the leader of ...
The collective right have a problem.The entire foundation for their world view is antiscientific. Their preferred economic strategies have been disproven. Their whole neoliberal model faces accusations of corporate corruption and worsening inequality. Climate change not only definitely exists, its rapid progression demands an immediate and expensive response in order ...
Just ten days ago, South Korea's president attempted a self-coup, declaring martial law and attempting to have opposition MPs murdered or arrested in an effort to seize unconstrained power. The attempt was rapidly defeated by the national assembly voting it down and the people flooding the streets to defend democracy. ...
Hi,“What I love about New Zealanders is that sometimes you use these expressions that as Americans we have no idea what those things mean!"I am watching a 30-something year old American ramble on about how different New Zealanders are to Americans. It’s his podcast, and this man is doing a ...
What Chris Penk has granted holocaust-denier and equal-opportunity-bigot Candace Owens is not “freedom of speech”. It’s not even really freedom of movement, though that technically is the right she has been granted. What he has given her is permission to perform. Freedom of SpeechIn New Zealand, the right to freedom ...
All those tears on your cheeksJust like deja vu flow nowWhen grandmother speaksSo tell me a story (I'll tell you a story)Spell it out, I can't hear (What do you want to hear?)Why you wear black in the morning?Why there's smoke in the air? Songwriter: Greg Johnson.Mōrena all ☀️Something a ...
National has only been in power for a year, but everywhere you look, its choices are taking New Zealand a long way backwards. In no particular order, here are the National Government's Top 50 Greatest Misses of its first year in power. ...
The Government is quietly undertaking consultation on the dangerous Regulatory Standards Bill over the Christmas period to avoid too much attention. ...
The Government’s planned changes to the freedom of speech obligations of universities is little more than a front for stoking the political fires of disinformation and fear, placing teachers and students in the crosshairs. ...
The Ministry of Regulation’s report into Early Childhood Education (ECE) in Aotearoa raises serious concerns about the possibility of lowering qualification requirements, undermining quality and risking worse outcomes for tamariki, whānau, and kaiako. ...
A Bill to modernise the role of Justices of the Peace (JP), ensuring they remain active in their communities and connected with other JPs, has been put into the ballot. ...
Labour will continue to fight unsustainable and destructive projects that are able to leap-frog environment protection under National’s Fast-track Approvals Bill. ...
The Green Party has warned that a Green Government will revoke the consents of companies who override environmental protections as part of Fast-Track legislation being passed today. ...
The Green Party says the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update shows how the Government is failing to address the massive social and infrastructure deficits our country faces. ...
The Government’s latest move to reduce the earnings of migrant workers will not only hurt migrants but it will drive down the wages of Kiwi workers. ...
Te Pāti Māori has this morning issued a stern warning to Fast-Track applicants with interests in mining, pledging to hold them accountable through retrospective liability and to immediately revoke Fast-Track consents under a future Te Pāti Māori government. This warning comes ahead of today’s third reading of the Fast-Track Approvals ...
The Government’s announcement today of a 1.5 per cent increase to minimum wage is another blow for workers, with inflation projected to exceed the increase, meaning it’s a real terms pay reduction for many. ...
All the Government has achieved from its announcement today is to continue to push responsibility back on councils for its own lack of action to help bring down skyrocketing rates. ...
The Government has used its final post-Cabinet press conference of the year to punch down on local government without offering any credible solutions to the issues our councils are facing. ...
The Government has failed to keep its promise to ‘super charge’ the EV network, delivering just 292 chargers - less than half of the 670 chargers needed to meet its target. ...
The Green Party is calling for the Government to stop subsidising the largest user of the country’s gas supplies, Methanex, following a report highlighting the multi-national’s disproportionate influence on energy prices in Aotearoa. ...
The Green Party is appalled with the Government’s new child poverty targets that are based on a new ‘persistent poverty’ measure that could be met even with an increase in child poverty. ...
New independent analysis has revealed that the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) will reduce emissions by a measly 1 per cent by 2030, failing to set us up for the future and meeting upcoming targets. ...
The loss of 27 kaimahi at Whakaata Māori and the end of its daily news bulletin is a sad day for Māori media and another step backwards for Te Tiriti o Waitangi justice. ...
Yesterday the Government passed cruel legislation through first reading to establish a new beneficiary sanction regime that will ultimately mean more households cannot afford the basic essentials. ...
Today's passing of the Government's Residential Tenancies Amendment Bill–which allows landlords to end tenancies with no reason–ignores the voice of the people and leaves renters in limbo ahead of the festive season. ...
After wasting a year, Nicola Willis has delivered a worse deal for the Cook Strait ferries that will end up being more expensive and take longer to arrive. ...
Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick has today launched a Member’s Bill to sanction Israel for its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, as the All Out For Gaza rally reaches Parliament. ...
After years of advocacy, the Green Party is very happy to hear the Government has listened to our collective voices and announced the closure of the greyhound racing industry, by 1 August 2026. ...
In response to a new report from ERO, the Government has acknowledged the urgent need for consistency across the curriculum for Relationship and Sexuality Education (RSE) in schools. ...
The Green Party is appalled at the Government introducing legislation that will make it easier to penalise workers fighting for better pay and conditions. ...
Thank you for the invitation to speak with you tonight on behalf of the political party I belong to - which is New Zealand First. As we have heard before this evening the Kinleith Mill is proposing to reduce operations by focusing on pulp and discontinuing “lossmaking paper production”. They say that they are currently consulting on the plan to permanently shut ...
Auckland Central MP, Chlöe Swarbrick, has written to Mayor Wayne Brown requesting he stop the unnecessary delays on St James Theatre’s restoration. ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says Health New Zealand will move swiftly to support dozens of internationally-trained doctors already in New Zealand on their journey to employment here, after a tripling of sought-after examination places. “The Medical Council has delivered great news for hardworking overseas doctors who want to contribute ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has appointed Sarah Ottrey to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). “At my first APEC Summit in Lima, I experienced firsthand the role that ABAC plays in guaranteeing political leaders hear the voice of business,” Mr Luxon says. “New Zealand’s ABAC representatives are very well respected and ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has announced four appointments to New Zealand’s intelligence oversight functions. The Honourable Robert Dobson KC has been appointed Chief Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants, and the Honourable Brendan Brown KC has been appointed as a Commissioner of Intelligence Warrants. The appointments of Hon Robert Dobson and Hon ...
Improvements in the average time it takes to process survey and title applications means housing developments can progress more quickly, Minister for Land Information Chris Penk says. “The government is resolutely focused on improving the building and construction pipeline,” Mr Penk says. “Applications to issue titles and subdivide land are ...
The Government’s measures to reduce airport wait times, and better transparency around flight disruptions is delivering encouraging early results for passengers ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Improving the efficiency of air travel is a priority for the Government to give passengers a smoother, more reliable ...
The Government today announced the intended closure of the Apollo Hotel as Contracted Emergency Housing (CEH) in Rotorua, Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka says. This follows a 30 per cent reduction in the number of households in CEH in Rotorua since National came into Government. “Our focus is on ending CEH in the Whakarewarewa area starting ...
The Government will reshape vocational education and training to return decision making to regions and enable greater industry input into work-based learning Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds says. “The redesigned system will better meet the needs of learners, industry, and the economy. It includes re-establishing regional polytechnics that ...
The Government is taking action to better manage synthetic refrigerants and reduce emissions caused by greenhouse gases found in heating and cooling products, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds says. “Regulations will be drafted to support a product stewardship scheme for synthetic refrigerants, Ms. Simmonds says. “Synthetic refrigerants are found in a ...
People travelling on State Highway 1 north of Hamilton will be relieved that remedial works and safety improvements on the Ngāruawāhia section of the Waikato Expressway were finished today, with all lanes now open to traffic, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“I would like to acknowledge the patience of road users ...
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister, Penny Simmonds, has announced a new appointment to the board of Education New Zealand (ENZ). Dr Erik Lithander has been appointed as a new member of the ENZ board for a three-year term until 30 January 2028. “I would like to welcome Dr Erik Lithander to the ...
The Government will have senior representatives at Waitangi Day events around the country, including at the Waitangi Treaty Grounds, but next year Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has chosen to take part in celebrations elsewhere. “It has always been my intention to celebrate Waitangi Day around the country with different ...
Two more criminal gangs will be subject to the raft of laws passed by the Coalition Government that give Police more powers to disrupt gang activity, and the intimidation they impose in our communities, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. Following an Order passed by Cabinet, from 3 February 2025 the ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Justice Christian Whata as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Whata’s appointment as a Judge of the Court of Appeal will take effect on 1 August 2025 and fill a vacancy created by the retirement of Hon Justice David Goddard on ...
The latest economic figures highlight the importance of the steps the Government has taken to restore respect for taxpayers’ money and drive economic growth, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Data released today by Stats NZ shows Gross Domestic Product fell 1 per cent in the September quarter. “Treasury and most ...
Tertiary Education and Skills Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Minister of Education David Seymour today announced legislation changes to strengthen freedom of speech obligations on universities. “Freedom of speech is fundamental to the concept of academic freedom and there is concern that universities seem to be taking a more risk-averse ...
Police Minister, Mark Mitchell, and Internal Affairs Minister, Brooke van Velden, today launched a further Public Safety Network cellular service that alongside last year’s Cellular Roaming roll-out, puts globally-leading cellular communications capability into the hands of our emergency responders. The Public Safety Network’s new Cellular Priority service means Police, Wellington ...
State Highway 1 through the Mangamuka Gorge has officially reopened today, providing a critical link for Northlanders and offering much-needed relief ahead of the busy summer period, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“The Mangamuka Gorge is a vital route for Northland, carrying around 1,300 vehicles per day and connecting the Far ...
The Government has welcomed decisions by the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) and Ashburton District Council confirming funding to boost resilience in the Canterbury region, with construction on a second Ashburton Bridge expected to begin in 2026, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering a second Ashburton Bridge to improve resilience and ...
The Government is backing the response into high pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Otago, Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says. “Cabinet has approved new funding of $20 million to enable MPI to meet unbudgeted ongoing expenses associated with the H7N6 response including rigorous scientific testing of samples at the enhanced PC3 ...
Legislation that will repeal all advertising restrictions for broadcasters on Sundays and public holidays has passed through first reading in Parliament today, Media Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “As a growing share of audiences get their news and entertainment from streaming services, these restrictions have become increasingly redundant. New Zealand on ...
Today the House agreed to Brendan Horsley being appointed Inspector-General of Defence, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “Mr Horsley’s experience will be invaluable in overseeing the establishment of the new office and its support networks. “He is currently Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security, having held that role since June 2020. ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government has agreed to the final regulations for the levy on insurance contracts that will fund Fire and Emergency New Zealand from July 2026. “Earlier this year the Government agreed to a 2.2 percent increase to the rate of levy. Fire ...
The Government is delivering regulatory relief for New Zealand businesses through changes to the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Act. “The Anti-Money Laundering and Countering Financing of Terrorism Amendment Bill, which was introduced today, is the second Bill – the other being the Statutes Amendment Bill - that ...
Transport Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed further progress on the Hawke’s Bay Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS), with the NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) Board approving funding for the detailed design of Stage 1, paving the way for main works construction to begin in late 2025.“The Government is moving at ...
The Government today released a request for information (RFI) to seeking interest in partnerships to plant trees on Crown-owned land with low farming and conservation value (excluding National Parks) Forestry Minister Todd McClay announced. “Planting trees on Crown-owned land will drive economic growth by creating more forestry jobs in our regions, providing more wood ...
Court timeliness, access to justice, and improving the quality of existing regulation are the focus of a series of law changes introduced to Parliament today by Associate Minister of Justice Nicole McKee. The three Bills in the Regulatory Systems (Justice) Amendment Bill package each improve a different part of the ...
A total of 41 appointments and reappointments have been made to the 12 community trusts around New Zealand that serve their regions, Associate Finance Minister Shane Jones says. “These trusts, and the communities they serve from the Far North to the deep south, will benefit from the rich experience, knowledge, ...
The Government has confirmed how it will provide redress to survivors who were tortured at the Lake Alice Psychiatric Hospital Child and Adolescent Unit (the Lake Alice Unit). “The Royal Commission of Inquiry into Abuse in Care found that many of the 362 children who went through the Lake Alice Unit between 1972 and ...
It has been a busy, productive year in the House as the coalition Government works hard to get New Zealand back on track, Leader of the House Chris Bishop says. “This Government promised to rebuild the economy, restore law and order and reduce the cost of living. Our record this ...
“Accelerated silicosis is an emerging occupational disease caused by unsafe work such as engineered stone benchtops. I am running a standalone consultation on engineered stone to understand what the industry is currently doing to manage the risks, and whether further regulatory intervention is needed,” says Workplace Relations and Safety Minister ...
Mehemea he pai mō te tangata, mahia – if it’s good for the people, get on with it. Enhanced reporting on the public sector’s delivery of Treaty settlement commitments will help improve outcomes for Māori and all New Zealanders, Māori Crown Relations Minister Tama Potaka says. Compiled together for the ...
Mr Roger Holmes Miller and Ms Tarita Hutchinson have been appointed to the Charities Registration Board, Community and Voluntary Sector Minister Louise Upston says. “I would like to welcome the new members joining the Charities Registration Board. “The appointment of Ms Hutchinson and Mr Miller will strengthen the Board’s capacity ...
More building consent and code compliance applications are being processed within the statutory timeframe since the Government required councils to submit quarterly data, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “In the midst of a housing shortage we need to look at every step of the build process for efficiencies ...
Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey is proud to announce the first three recipients of the Government’s $10 million Mental Health and Addiction Community Sector Innovation Fund which will enable more Kiwis faster access to mental health and addiction support. “This fund is part of the Government’s commitment to investing in ...
New Zealand is providing Vanuatu assistance following yesterday's devastating earthquake, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. "Vanuatu is a member of our Pacific family and we are supporting it in this time of acute need," Mr Peters says. "Our thoughts are with the people of Vanuatu, and we will be ...
The Government welcomes the Commerce Commission’s plan to reduce card fees for Kiwis by an estimated $260 million a year, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says.“The Government is relentlessly focused on reducing the cost of living, so Kiwis can keep more of their hard-earned income and live a ...
Regulation Minister David Seymour has welcomed the Early Childhood Education (ECE) regulatory review report, the first major report from the Ministry for Regulation. The report makes 15 recommendations to modernise and simplify regulations across ECE so services can get on with what they do best – providing safe, high-quality care ...
The Government‘s Offshore Renewable Energy Bill to create a new regulatory regime that will enable firms to construct offshore wind generation has passed its first reading in Parliament, Energy Minister Simeon Brown says.“New Zealand currently does not have a regulatory regime for offshore renewable energy as the previous government failed ...
Legislation to enable new water service delivery models that will drive critical investment in infrastructure has passed its first reading in Parliament, marking a significant step towards the delivery of Local Water Done Well, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly say.“Councils and voters ...
New Zealand is one step closer to reaping the benefits of gene technology with the passing of the first reading of the Gene Technology Bill, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins says. "This legislation will end New Zealand's near 30-year ban on gene technology outside the lab and is ...
ByKoroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor New Zealand’s Urban Search and Rescue (USAR) says impending bad weather for Port Vila is now the most significant post-quake hazard. A tropical low in the Coral Sea is expected to move into Vanuatu waters, bringing heavy rainfall. Authorities have issued warnings to people ...
Cosmic CatastropheThe year draws to a close.King Luxon has grown tired of the long eveningsListening to the dreary squabbling of his Triumvirate.He strolls up to the top floor of the PalaceTo consult with his Astronomer Royal.The Royal Telescope scans the skies,And King Luxon stares up into the heavensFrom the terrestrial ...
Spinoff editor Mad Chapman and books editor Claire Mabey debate Carl Shuker’s new novel about… an editor. Claire: Hello Mad, you just finished The Royal Free – overall impressions? Mad: Hi Claire, I literally just put the book down and I would have to say my immediate impression is ...
Christmas and its buildup are often lonely, hard and full of unreasonable expectations. Here’s how to make it to Jesus’s birthday and find the little bit of joy we all deserve. Have you found this year relentless? Has the latest Apple update “fucked up your life”? Have you lost two ...
Despite overwhelming public and corporate support, the government has stalled progress on a modern day slavery law. That puts us behind other countries – and makes Christmas a time of tragedy rather than joy, argues Shanti Mathias. Picture the scene on Christmas Day. Everyone replete with nice things to eat, ...
Asia Pacific Report “It looks like Hiroshima. It looks like Germany at the end of World War Two,” says an Israeli-American historian and professor of holocaust and genocide studies at Brown University about the horrifying reality of Gaza. Professor Omer Bartov, has described Israel’s ongoing war on Gaza as an ...
The New Zealand government coalition is tweaking university regulations to curb what it says is an increasingly “risk-averse approach” to free speech. The proposed changes will set clear expectations on how universities should approach freedom of speech issues. Each university will then have to adopt a “freedom of speech statement” ...
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone New York prosecutors have charged Luigi Mangione with “murder as an act of terrorism” in his alleged shooting of health insurance CEO Brian Thompson earlier this month. This news comes out at the same time as ...
Pacific Media Watch The union for Australian journalists has welcomed the delivery by the federal government of more than $150 million to support the sustainability of public interest journalism over the next four years. Combined with the announcement of the revamped News Bargaining Initiative, this could result in up to ...
MONDAY“Merry Xmas, and praise the Lord,” said Sheriff Luxon, and smiled for the camera. There was a flash of smoke when the shutter pressed down on the magnesium powder. The sheriff had arranged for a photographer from the Dodge Gazette to attend a ceremony where he handed out food parcels to ...
It’s a little under two months since the White Ferns shocked the cricketing world, deservedly taking home the T20 World Cup. Since then the trophy has had a tour around the country, five of the squad have played in the WBBL in Australia while most others have returned to domestic ...
Comment: If we say the word ‘dementia’, many will picture an older person struggling to remember the names of their loved ones, maybe a grandparent living out their final years in an aged care facility. Dementia can also occur in people younger than 65, but it can take time before ...
Piracy is a reality of modern life – but copyright law has struggled to play catch-up for as long as the entertainment industry has existed. As far back as 1988, the House of Lords criticised copyright law’s conflict with the reality of human behaviour in the context of burning cassette ...
As he makes a surprise return to Shortland Street, actor Craig Parker takes us through his life in television. Craig Parker has been a fixture on television in Aotearoa for nearly four decades. He had starring roles in iconic local series like Gloss, Mercy Peak and Diplomatic Immunity, featured in ...
The Ōtautahi musician shares the 10 tracks he loves to spin, including the folk classic that cured him of a ‘case of the give-ups’. When singer-songwriter Adam McGrath returns to Kumeu’s Auckland Folk Festival from January 24-27, he’s not planning on simply idling his way through – he wants the late ...
Alex Casey spends an afternoon on the job with River, the rescue dog on a mission to spread joy to Ōtautahi rest homes.Almost everyone says it is never enough time. But River the rescue dog, a jet black huntaway border collie cross, has to keep a tight pace to ...
Asia Pacific Report Fiji activists have recreated the nativity scene at a solidarity for Palestine gathering in Fiji’s capital Suva just days before Christmas. The Fiji Women’s Crisis Centre and Fijians for Palestine Solidarity Network recreated the scene at the FWCC compound — a baby Jesus figurine lies amidst the ...
By 1News Pacific correspondent Barbara Dreaver and 1News reporters A number of Kiwis have been successfully evacuated from Vanuatu after a devastating earthquake shook the Pacific island nation earlier this week. The death toll was still unclear, though at least 14 people were killed according to an earlier statement from ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Scully, Professor in Modern History, University of New England Bunker.Image courtesy of Michael Leunig, CC BY-NC-SA Michael Leunig – who died in the early hours of Thursday December 19, surrounded by “his children, loved ones, and sunflowers” – was the ...
The House - On Parliament's last day of the year, there was the rare occurrence of a personal (conscience) vote on selling booze over the Easter weekend. While it didn't have the numbers to pass, it was a chance to get a rare glimpse of the fact ...
A new poem by Holly Fletcher. bejeweled log i was dreaming about wasps / wee darlings that followed me / ducking under objects / that i was fated to pickup / my fingers seeking / and meeting with tiny proboscis’s / but instead / i wake up / roll sideways ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Flora Hui, Research Fellow, Centre for Eye Research Australia and Honorary Fellow, Department of Surgery (Ophthalmology), The University of Melbourne Versta/Shutterstock Australians are exposed to some of the highest levels of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation in the world. While we ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Terry, Professor of Business Regulation, University of Sydney Michael von Aichberger/Shutterstock Even if you’ve no idea how the business model underpinning franchises works, there’s a good chance you’ve spent money at one. Franchising is essentially a strategy for cloning ...
If something big is going to happen in Ferndale, it’s going to happen at Christmas. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. If there’s one episode of Shortland Street you should watch each year, it’s the annual Christmas cliffhanger. The final episode of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William A. Stoltz, Lecturer and expert Associate, National Security College, Australian National University US President-elect Donald Trump has named most of the members of his proposed cabinet. However, he’s yet to reveal key appointees to America’s powerful cyber warfare and intelligence institutions. ...
Announcing the top 10 books of the the year at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Intermezzo by Sally Rooney (Faber & Faber, $37) The phenomenal Irish writer is the unsurprising chart topper for 2024 with her fourth novel that, much like her first ...
I see that the big problem appears to be soot not C02 according to this NASA study:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/soot-reduction-could-help-to-stop-global-warming-1224481.html
It appears that we get much more bang for our buck with respect to AGW (if true) by cleaning up the soot rather than the C02. Plus there are health side-benefits as well. What environmentally concious person could possibly argue with cleaning up the dirty smoke? This seems much more practical and cost effective than emmission trading schemes and the like.
Maybe the hysteria about C02 is being misdirected.
There is no ‘hysteria’ about CO2, it is a scientific fact that it traps heat and it is also a fact we are pumping billions of tonnes of the stuff into the atomsphere.
Soot, which is mainly carbon (note, not carbon dioxide) also has a greenhouse effect. Of course we should reduce it as possible.
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output. As we’ve become cleaner that cooling effect has reduced and global temperuate increase has taken off.
also interestingly. Soylent Green, the movie made in 1973 and set in 2022 has the temperature hotter than now due to the greenhouse effect.
Don’t forget the CFC effect as well SP.
HS: CFCs are responsible for about 12% of AGW. There’s not much more that can be done now – they are heavily regulated (under the Montreal Protocol) and atmospheric concentrations are falling. Because they are such stable molecules we’ll have to wait for a long while (decades, even centuries for some kinds of CFC) for them to all break down.
Steve, even if we doubled the amount of C02 in the atmosphere, the effect would be neglible if C02 was the sole cause. However, it is well recognised that AGW is based more around the secondary effects of increased water vapour that is thought to occur due to the small temperature increase caused by C02. However, it is not well understood what the balance is between positive and negative forcings that determine climate sensitivity. This is clear when we compare the worst-case scenario from the IPCC of around 59 cm increase with the predictions of Huber of up to 100 metres increase in sea level:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10551751
It seems clear that there is far to much noise in the models to draw any firm conclusions. Also, it is accepted that endevours such as the Kyoto protocol are going to have negligible effect on AGW (if true) in any case. On the other hand, reducing soot is going to have an immediate and substantial effect according to the NASA report I cited. Since we are in a zero-sum game so far as our financial resources are concerned, it seems a no-brainer to direct our energy into something that is going to have a substantial effect (if AGW is correct) and have a positive effect on the environment generally compared to a dubious strategy such as Kyoto.
tsmithfield:
The Herald article is interesting. The paleoclimatologists reckon that the world could warm up a lot more than IPCC model’s would have us believe, which is certainly a worry.
Their archeological evidence is pretty telling. But there is a big difference between the Eocene greenhouse and the modern one. The greenhouse in the Eocene was supposedly cranked up by the result of a sudden release of methane clathrates. When this happens, the amount of methane released can be enormous, and it’s autocatalytic because it causes more global warming which tends to melt more clathrates.
But our greenhouse is not so methane-driven. I am pretty sure that most anthropogenic emissions are C02 (though methane and CFCs are significant). Maybe in the Eocene there was some specifically methane-related that led to the greater warming? Something to do with cloud formation perhaps … it could be very hard to know.
In any case, I don’t see why the possibility of cheap reductions in black carbon emissions should absolve us of the need to make (more expensive) reductions in C02 and methane as well?
tsmithfield:
Let me just stop you there.
A “zero-sum game”? Are you serious?
Con: The question is what caused a state change and released those methane clathrates. Once it starts, it is likely to be a runaway.
It’d have to either be a increase in temperature or a decrease in pressure or maybe (remote possibility) a change in chemical conditions.
Look – we’re doing the temperature change right now with our releases of greenhouse gases. We’re also managing to warm the oceans, and warmer water is less dense – ie less pressure maybe. Oh and the chemical composition of the oceans is changing.
Perhaps all of those things happened in the Eocene and other periods – from vulcanism is most likely. But if anything triggers a state change in the MC’s then we will really start to see a change. Guess what we’re on a path to do just that.
BTW: The IPCC estimates are the most conservative options from the most established evidence. Most people with some understanding of earth sciences (like me) or climatology consider that they give the best possible option. To date their estimates keep getting worse on each iteration and as the evidence mounts.
Echoing what Lynn says above – the IPCC is essentially hobbled by the requirement to appear “rational and restrained”. There are numerous scientists who are members of the panel on record stating that their actual views are not represented accurately, as the “agreed statement” was watered down to a far less dramatic version of reality to avoid sowing the seeds of hysteria or (more likely) threatening IPCC credibility and allowing opponents to brand them as loonies. It is incredible the damage an oil industry exec can do just by appearing on TV and saying “100m? pfft. You’d have to be an idiot to believe that”.
You’ll note that their predictions have been becoming steadily worse and more forcefully phrased. Expect that trend to continue.
People like to believe the safe option much more than they like to sit down with a calculator and work out how much water is in the antarctic icecap.
Steve P.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century. I think like the CO2 hysteria being drummed up for political purposes you just made that little bit of BS up to support your assertion that CO2 is the big scary heat up the planet monster you want it to be.
Antarctic ice cap?
But that’s at the bottom of the planet. As it melts it’ll drip down, not up.
You just made that “Antarctic ice monster” up to scare people for political purposes. I saw on youtube that scientists make up stuff too.
ha ha helix. maybe another option is to simply relax and enjoy …
ya?
noh?
seriously.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.
Here’s the context of what steve said …
(emphasis mine)
Look at what the ‘this’ burt wants a link for refers to. Go on. I’ll wait.
Got it?
Yet he paraphrased it as ” scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.”
dishonest, stupid or both?
the debate continues…
How many years must the cooling continue before we admit we were wrong about global warming?
No statistically significant rise in average temperatures since 1995, and a cooling trend since 2002.
In this period human caused co2 output has increased 30%+, so clearly there is something with a larger effect going on or we have hit a stable state.
SBlount
Some interesting reading here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs
So what happened in the late 1600’s ? There is an interesting graph in this article that might provide some answers.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/06mar_solarminimum.htm
And if you look at the temperature graphs here there is some interesting correlations that only the most gullible could believe are coincidence.
Still it’s not trendy to “not be in control” and the human ego is so big that naturally if there is anything changing on earth we must be responsible. If the cause of the change is outside of our control (or even influence) then we don’t get to take the place as being the most important thing on earth when it comes to climate.
burt,
Agreed, you cannot control a non-linear, complex system. You must observe carefully and humbly manage outcomes as all inputs will have unintended consequences.
Nobody knows the future except that there will be change, nature will always adjust, but humanity is less flexible and mobile.
We are approaching the historical maximum interglacial temperature, and temperatures could still go up, or they could go down. We don’t know if solar activity will drive this, or what kind of things might happen at increased co2 levels (as all global warming has eventually become global cooling and vice versa)
How many years must the cooling continue before we admit we were wrong about global warming?
About 30 would be the generally accepted answer.
No statistically significant rise in average temperatures since 1995, and a cooling trend since 2002.
Provide a link and I will demolish it. Warning I work with time trends all day every day.
About 30 would be the generally accepted answer.
There was 30 years of cooling between 1940-1970 during a period of sharply increasing co2 concentration.
Provide a link and I will demolish it. Warning I work with time trends all day every day.
I heard it in a debate from Prof Bob M. Carter at the 33rd International Geological Conference.
Very cute. Bob Carter. Autodemolished.
I did ask for a link, but I found one for you here in this article by Bob Carter.
The salient facts are these. First, the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2.
8 years is too short a period compared with the noise and variation in the data. If for example I stated that for the last 30 minutes the temperature in my room here in Wellington was a very stable 23 degC, and therefore there was no such thing as winter… you would conclude I was a total doofus.
A more complete review is here.
RedLogiox
In mid January (in NZ) any conclusion that there is no winter would make you a doofus.
However have I got this correct, we needed the ETS rushed through under urgency because we needed to act really really quickly on climate change yet 8 years is too short a time frame to make valid observations about climate data.
Three or four months of cross party consultation would take too long but 30 years is a valid observation period – it’s not about science is it !
There is an element of “Pascal’s wager” to it.
If only Pascal’s Bookie were here…
Is it me, or does the polar bear look like hes laughing???
Ha, he does!
Somehow I doubt that the guy is laughing though.
tsmithfield,
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
Northpaw “tsmithfield,
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models”
By noise I mean margins of error due to uncertainties in the data. Given that predictions range from centimetres of sea level rise to one hundred metres of sea level rise, then it seems that the noise must be quite high.
One source for noise is the heat-island effects associated with growing cities. While statistical corrections are made for these effects, it remains questionable whether the corrections are adequate. Also, rural stations have been dropped out over recent years meaning that part of the observed rise has at least in part been an artifact of the distribution of stations rather than necessarily real increases in temperature.
Here is are several links which show an exchange between a AGW skeptic and believer on the topic that arose from a media interview.
http://www.businessandmedia.org/printer/2009/20090114065138.aspx
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/cnn-is-spun-right-round-baby-right-round/
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/URBANIZATION_IN_THE_TEMPERATURE_DATA_BASES.pdf
Another source of uncertainty is the sensitivity of the system to increases in C02. This depends on the balance between positive and negative forcings in clouds which is still not well understood. Here is a peer reviewed article on the subject.
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-pdf&file=i1520-0442-21-21-5624.pdf&ct=1
tsmithfield. The whole system is uncertain – it is inherently complex and chaotic. That is the nature of natural systems. If we had a few hundred years of good observations under a reasonably steady state system we might be able to have a nice predictive model. As it is we have less than a 30 years of good data, less than hundred years of reasonable data, and completely patchy data prior to that. This is in a system that requires hundreds of years to show effects to the full.
As it is we’re working in a system with limited long-term measurement and where the system is already changing. What is certain is that we are changing the climate, and quite drastically and with uncertain outcomes. The only thing you can be absolutely sure of, is that the effects are underestimated in the IPCC estimates. Effectively we are venus-forming (ie not terra-forming) the earth with no accurate idea of predicted outcomes.
Unlike what I can see of your level of scientific knowledge, I actually know something about earth sciences. It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes. That is the action of a mindless fool. I can just see you wanting to bring back DDT on the basis that a full causal link wasn’t proved between its use and the long term cumulative effects – we didn’t wait long enough to observe them. The same logic applies as for your pitiful attempts above to do the same thing. By your premise we shouldn’t do anything about birth control either. It isn’t absolutely certain that a child will result from sex
For instance we currently have no idea if things will get warmer overall or colder in different areas. It depends on ‘trigger’ effects in ocean currents like the Gulf stream with things like fresh water dilution. It is climate change – it probably will involve global warming in the short-term. It will probably involve local cooling, especially in places like northern europe that get a large proportion of their heat from ocean current transfers.
It is only the accidental comics of the climate deniers who look for simple and known solutions.. Why? I think it is probably because they are quite simple people. In my experience – too simple to adsorb the science even if you tell them in worlds of few syllables…
If you want to look at major effects (rather than minor (almost trivial) like the ones you mentioned (always favorites of the CC commedians)) , then have a look at the summary in the Economist about the ocean adsorption rates. Effectively the biggest CO2 adsorption system is filling rapidly. I’ll give you a hint – figure out how what volume of CO2 was required to move the pH of the volume of the oceans. The figure out how a rising pH starts to slow the adsorbtion rates.
Personally I suspect that the calculations are beyond you – prove me wrong.. But I suspect we’ll just get subjected to links to more pathetic attempts at people trying to talk about things they don’t understand.
Iprent “It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes”
You assume that I propose doing nothing. This assumption cannot validly be drawn from what I have said.
Rather than focusing on the problem of C02, I think there are a lot of smaller problems we should be focusing on that have clear determinable benefits. The sum result will be to deal with the carbon problem, if in fact it is a problem. Let me give you some examples:
1. Non-carbon based solutions to energy to mitigate the effect of peak oil.
2. Developing incentive schemes that prevent the burning down of world forests to preserve our environment and prevent extinction of species.
3. Reducing soot output. As I pointed out above, a recent NASA study shows this would have a much more immediate effect on climate, and also provide considerable health benefits.
The sort of initiatives mentioned above have immediate benefits for society apart from any carbon reduction and would be much easier to sell. I think most skeptics would agree with these type of initiatives on the basis of their immediate benefits, if nothing else. The sum effect would be a dramatic reduction in carbon output without having to resort to dubious schemes such as the Kyoto Protocol which has carbon reduction as its only goal.
I think a lot of the skepticism from people such as myself can be laid out the feet of
the wide-eyed hysteria and deception propounded by many AGW enthusiasts such as Hansen. I think a lot of this sort of stuff is going to lead to AGW fatigue amongst the world population, and the message of the skeptics will become more appealing as a result. This would truly be sad as the issue should be decided on the basis of science, and not a popularity contest. However, AGW proponents have turned this into a popularity contest through scientists mixing science with politics. Unfortunately, if this sort of strategy is relied on, then the wheels of popularity can turn in the other direction, pushing the direction of politics along with it.
Arggh – how about keeping to a single handle. It is always hard to keep track when people shift around.
Have a read of the economist article, or even better find the editorial that went with it. C02 generation is proving to not just be a atmospheric problem. In a lot of ways the acidification of the water systems is probably even more likely to cause run-away effects.
The problem is that at present much less than a third of the generated carbon has been getting into the atmosphere for the 20th. The problem looks like it has been winding up in the oceans from a variety of methods.
The problem is that is likely cause a widespread shift in a lot of largely unknown systems. For instance it causes de-calcification which releases CO2 from calcium carbonates. That is the kind of thing that is likely to cause run-away effects before shifting to a new equilibrium. None of that is currently factored in the IPCC because the measurements were just re-performed to compare to 1970’s data.
The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now. It is taking a immense risk to carry on as if the biosphere and geology can continue soaking up the current outputs without hitting trigger events.
Short-term pallatives are just dangerous bearing in mind the unknown risk levels from what we don’t know. This is one of the few areas that I whole-heartedly agree with teh greens.
Iprent “The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now.”
Well, I think measures such as eliminating fossil fuels as an energy source would achieve exactly that goal. So would finding ways for reducing deforrestation, thus increasing carbon sinks. However, these types of solutions also solve more tangible immediate problems. They are not merely “short-term palliatives” for the C02 issue. So, I think there are a lot of aspects we would agree on.
The problem with focussing on C02 as the problem is that it can lead to other fairly speculative solutions such as painting the world white.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/16/white-paint-carbon-emissions-climate
This sort of solution simply churns up lots of resources with little other tangible benefit. To me, this seems much more risky, because, as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty in the chaotic climate system as you say. However, solutions that stand on their own feet, regardless of whether AGW forecasts are correct or not seem to be no-brainers, and should gain acceptance readilly.
You criticised me previously for not being a scientist. That is fair, as I do not have a degree in a climate-related field. For this reason, I describe myself as a climate agnostic, having reached no firm conclusion either way as I do not see myself as qualified to do so. From my reading I am aware of a lot of spurious stuff on both sides of the debate which tends to make me suspicious with extreme claims.
I mentioned Hansen, earlier. Here is an example of how his temperature adjustments reflect against Wellington’s temperature record:
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2007/09/is-james-hansen.html
This is typical of temperature adjustment techniques Hansen has used more generally where earlier temperatures are adjusted downwards, and later temperatures are adjusted upwards, producing an apparently artificial warming trend. Sorry, can’t find my link to the article right now.
This type of behaviour does not enhance credibility on either side. When reading articles on either side of the debate I prefer to see they are based on sound science and well researched.
Busy pushing code together at present, so I’ll respond later more fully.
But the real issue is that humans have been treating the biosphere as being effectively infinite for a long time, and that their environmental effects were relatively limited. You maybe could have argued that when the worlds population was less than 1 billion in the 19th century.
Generally we’re getting quite effective at handling local effects at a national level. The pollution goes up during developmental bursts and gets fixed by affluence. This is much the same as what happens with population and medical care.
We are still ratshit at handling problems are a global level. It doesn’t matter if it is finance companies rorting their way around varying legal frameworks, trade disputes of global pollution. In the latter case there is a really depressing track record over time – only the CFC’s stand out as being moderately acceptable.
We’re now approaching 7 billion and where most people on earth are using far more resources and excreting far more waste than they did prior to 1900. We’re probably going to touch 11 billion by 2050 (which there is a moderate probability that I’ll see – born in 1959 – I’d be 90’ish). It will probably remain at that level for a long time.
The effects of humanity are getting quite intense in the atmosphere and water systems which are both cross-borders. That will intensify as the population continues to rise and affluence levels spread.
To say that I don’t give a stuff about exact measurements or pallative techniques would be an understatement. If you look back at paleogeology, the effects of what we are doing to the biosphere are well known and well understood – it makes species at the top of the food chain extinct. The only thing we don’t know is what happens when we do it as fast as we are doing it now.
Bearing in mind the 20-30 year societal and infrastructure lead times for new technologies (and techniques) to spread. We need the alternates to old technologies being developed now. Rather than having rising states develop on a basis of coal liquidification (a 1940’s technology) for their transport needs and thereby intensifying the problems, we need better technologies going down the engineering path now.
The developed countries need to be involved in setting up the framework to develop those techs now because they are the societies with
a) the economic surpluses to do it.
b) the responsibility for causing the existing level of damage.
The should do it because if they don’t, then the rest of the world population will go affluent really fast using the existing technologies. That will directly impact on us because our societies are far more suseptible to disruption (essentially any more compex system is far more suscepible to chaotic environments than simplier ones).
Frankly the CCDs like those comedians in Act should really be forced to do some learning of economics. If they’d bother to look at the downstream effects of affluence and population on the biosphere they’re exploiting using their own economic philosphies, they’d be worth listening to. Instead what we get is wishful thinking based on the idea that it all going to be someones elses problem.
tsmithfield,
NOISE.. an interesting word which my desktop Collins posits derivation from Latin’s ‘nausea’. Added thereto several strains in respect of definition:
1. loud shouting, clamor;
2. sound ie the noise of rain;
3. any unwanted electrical signal within a communication system
Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.
Which is why you can now understand I felt impelled to ask you what you meant in your use of the term. In doing so, you will now realise, we have eliminated an uncertainty of communication.
That said, and taking account your perceptible need to ‘rely on science’ per the exchange/s with lprent I’d like to suggest that in the course of commentary to this particular blog you more than most have shifted very satisfactorily away from denialist’s strategem of deliberately NOISING in rumors rather than reports.
May this continue to be the case.
Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers? Think about it.
Do.
Northpaw: “Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.”
Here is a link to a definition for statistical noise, which is pretty much as I understand it. Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise”.
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-statistical-noise.htm
Northpaw: “Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers?”
As more of our energy is derived from non-oil sources, there will be more oil available for other ancillary purposes such as plastics etc. If this happens incrementally at a sufficient rate then oil should be available for ancillary purposes such as plastics etc for a long time. If the concern is greenhouse gases from burning oil, then it is preferable for oil to be locked up in forms such as plastics etc that does not enter the atmosphere.
tsmithfield,
thank you for the reply.. for the attempted answer in one part and limited response in another.. Now not to labor this(pun unintended) you wrote: Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise’. which to my eyes and mind states quite clearly that ‘margin of error’ is other than “noise” — not noise itself!
Use of ‘statistical noise’ in your original commentary might have helped somewhat though I’d hasten to add the term so used would make a nonsense of your two examples in relation to sea-level rise. Else revealed them for what they were—misleading at best and incomprehensible otherwise.
If I may allow me add that either you specify context in your use of terminology or not use another’s jargon at all without reference or linking to it.