It appears that we get much more bang for our buck with respect to AGW (if true) by cleaning up the soot rather than the C02. Plus there are health side-benefits as well. What environmentally concious person could possibly argue with cleaning up the dirty smoke? This seems much more practical and cost effective than emmission trading schemes and the like.
Maybe the hysteria about C02 is being misdirected.
There is no ‘hysteria’ about CO2, it is a scientific fact that it traps heat and it is also a fact we are pumping billions of tonnes of the stuff into the atomsphere.
Soot, which is mainly carbon (note, not carbon dioxide) also has a greenhouse effect. Of course we should reduce it as possible.
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output. As we’ve become cleaner that cooling effect has reduced and global temperuate increase has taken off.
also interestingly. Soylent Green, the movie made in 1973 and set in 2022 has the temperature hotter than now due to the greenhouse effect.
HS: CFCs are responsible for about 12% of AGW. There’s not much more that can be done now – they are heavily regulated (under the Montreal Protocol) and atmospheric concentrations are falling. Because they are such stable molecules we’ll have to wait for a long while (decades, even centuries for some kinds of CFC) for them to all break down.
Steve, even if we doubled the amount of C02 in the atmosphere, the effect would be neglible if C02 was the sole cause. However, it is well recognised that AGW is based more around the secondary effects of increased water vapour that is thought to occur due to the small temperature increase caused by C02. However, it is not well understood what the balance is between positive and negative forcings that determine climate sensitivity. This is clear when we compare the worst-case scenario from the IPCC of around 59 cm increase with the predictions of Huber of up to 100 metres increase in sea level:
It seems clear that there is far to much noise in the models to draw any firm conclusions. Also, it is accepted that endevours such as the Kyoto protocol are going to have negligible effect on AGW (if true) in any case. On the other hand, reducing soot is going to have an immediate and substantial effect according to the NASA report I cited. Since we are in a zero-sum game so far as our financial resources are concerned, it seems a no-brainer to direct our energy into something that is going to have a substantial effect (if AGW is correct) and have a positive effect on the environment generally compared to a dubious strategy such as Kyoto.
tsmithfield:
The Herald article is interesting. The paleoclimatologists reckon that the world could warm up a lot more than IPCC model’s would have us believe, which is certainly a worry.
Their archeological evidence is pretty telling. But there is a big difference between the Eocene greenhouse and the modern one. The greenhouse in the Eocene was supposedly cranked up by the result of a sudden release of methane clathrates. When this happens, the amount of methane released can be enormous, and it’s autocatalytic because it causes more global warming which tends to melt more clathrates.
But our greenhouse is not so methane-driven. I am pretty sure that most anthropogenic emissions are C02 (though methane and CFCs are significant). Maybe in the Eocene there was some specifically methane-related that led to the greater warming? Something to do with cloud formation perhaps … it could be very hard to know.
In any case, I don’t see why the possibility of cheap reductions in black carbon emissions should absolve us of the need to make (more expensive) reductions in C02 and methane as well?
Con: The question is what caused a state change and released those methane clathrates. Once it starts, it is likely to be a runaway.
It’d have to either be a increase in temperature or a decrease in pressure or maybe (remote possibility) a change in chemical conditions.
Look – we’re doing the temperature change right now with our releases of greenhouse gases. We’re also managing to warm the oceans, and warmer water is less dense – ie less pressure maybe. Oh and the chemical composition of the oceans is changing.
Perhaps all of those things happened in the Eocene and other periods – from vulcanism is most likely. But if anything triggers a state change in the MC’s then we will really start to see a change. Guess what we’re on a path to do just that.
BTW: The IPCC estimates are the most conservative options from the most established evidence. Most people with some understanding of earth sciences (like me) or climatology consider that they give the best possible option. To date their estimates keep getting worse on each iteration and as the evidence mounts.
Echoing what Lynn says above – the IPCC is essentially hobbled by the requirement to appear “rational and restrained”. There are numerous scientists who are members of the panel on record stating that their actual views are not represented accurately, as the “agreed statement” was watered down to a far less dramatic version of reality to avoid sowing the seeds of hysteria or (more likely) threatening IPCC credibility and allowing opponents to brand them as loonies. It is incredible the damage an oil industry exec can do just by appearing on TV and saying “100m? pfft. You’d have to be an idiot to believe that”.
You’ll note that their predictions have been becoming steadily worse and more forcefully phrased. Expect that trend to continue.
People like to believe the safe option much more than they like to sit down with a calculator and work out how much water is in the antarctic icecap.
It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century. I think like the CO2 hysteria being drummed up for political purposes you just made that little bit of BS up to support your assertion that CO2 is the big scary heat up the planet monster you want it to be.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.
Here’s the context of what steve said …
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output.
(emphasis mine)
Look at what the ‘this’ burt wants a link for refers to. Go on. I’ll wait.
Got it?
Yet he paraphrased it as ” scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.”
And if you look at the temperature graphs here there is some interesting correlations that only the most gullible could believe are coincidence.
Still it’s not trendy to “not be in control” and the human ego is so big that naturally if there is anything changing on earth we must be responsible. If the cause of the change is outside of our control (or even influence) then we don’t get to take the place as being the most important thing on earth when it comes to climate.
Agreed, you cannot control a non-linear, complex system. You must observe carefully and humbly manage outcomes as all inputs will have unintended consequences.
Nobody knows the future except that there will be change, nature will always adjust, but humanity is less flexible and mobile.
We are approaching the historical maximum interglacial temperature, and temperatures could still go up, or they could go down. We don’t know if solar activity will drive this, or what kind of things might happen at increased co2 levels (as all global warming has eventually become global cooling and vice versa)
I did ask for a link, but I found one for you here in this article by Bob Carter.
The salient facts are these. First, the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2.
8 years is too short a period compared with the noise and variation in the data. If for example I stated that for the last 30 minutes the temperature in my room here in Wellington was a very stable 23 degC, and therefore there was no such thing as winter… you would conclude I was a total doofus.
In mid January (in NZ) any conclusion that there is no winter would make you a doofus.
However have I got this correct, we needed the ETS rushed through under urgency because we needed to act really really quickly on climate change yet 8 years is too short a time frame to make valid observations about climate data.
Three or four months of cross party consultation would take too long but 30 years is a valid observation period – it’s not about science is it !
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models”
By noise I mean margins of error due to uncertainties in the data. Given that predictions range from centimetres of sea level rise to one hundred metres of sea level rise, then it seems that the noise must be quite high.
One source for noise is the heat-island effects associated with growing cities. While statistical corrections are made for these effects, it remains questionable whether the corrections are adequate. Also, rural stations have been dropped out over recent years meaning that part of the observed rise has at least in part been an artifact of the distribution of stations rather than necessarily real increases in temperature.
Here is are several links which show an exchange between a AGW skeptic and believer on the topic that arose from a media interview.
Another source of uncertainty is the sensitivity of the system to increases in C02. This depends on the balance between positive and negative forcings in clouds which is still not well understood. Here is a peer reviewed article on the subject.
tsmithfield. The whole system is uncertain – it is inherently complex and chaotic. That is the nature of natural systems. If we had a few hundred years of good observations under a reasonably steady state system we might be able to have a nice predictive model. As it is we have less than a 30 years of good data, less than hundred years of reasonable data, and completely patchy data prior to that. This is in a system that requires hundreds of years to show effects to the full.
As it is we’re working in a system with limited long-term measurement and where the system is already changing. What is certain is that we are changing the climate, and quite drastically and with uncertain outcomes. The only thing you can be absolutely sure of, is that the effects are underestimated in the IPCC estimates. Effectively we are venus-forming (ie not terra-forming) the earth with no accurate idea of predicted outcomes.
Unlike what I can see of your level of scientific knowledge, I actually know something about earth sciences. It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes. That is the action of a mindless fool. I can just see you wanting to bring back DDT on the basis that a full causal link wasn’t proved between its use and the long term cumulative effects – we didn’t wait long enough to observe them. The same logic applies as for your pitiful attempts above to do the same thing. By your premise we shouldn’t do anything about birth control either. It isn’t absolutely certain that a child will result from sex
For instance we currently have no idea if things will get warmer overall or colder in different areas. It depends on ‘trigger’ effects in ocean currents like the Gulf stream with things like fresh water dilution. It is climate change – it probably will involve global warming in the short-term. It will probably involve local cooling, especially in places like northern europe that get a large proportion of their heat from ocean current transfers.
It is only the accidental comics of the climate deniers who look for simple and known solutions.. Why? I think it is probably because they are quite simple people. In my experience – too simple to adsorb the science even if you tell them in worlds of few syllables…
If you want to look at major effects (rather than minor (almost trivial) like the ones you mentioned (always favorites of the CC commedians)) , then have a look at the summary in the Economist about the ocean adsorption rates. Effectively the biggest CO2 adsorption system is filling rapidly. I’ll give you a hint – figure out how what volume of CO2 was required to move the pH of the volume of the oceans. The figure out how a rising pH starts to slow the adsorbtion rates.
Personally I suspect that the calculations are beyond you – prove me wrong.. But I suspect we’ll just get subjected to links to more pathetic attempts at people trying to talk about things they don’t understand.
Iprent “It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes”
You assume that I propose doing nothing. This assumption cannot validly be drawn from what I have said.
Rather than focusing on the problem of C02, I think there are a lot of smaller problems we should be focusing on that have clear determinable benefits. The sum result will be to deal with the carbon problem, if in fact it is a problem. Let me give you some examples:
1. Non-carbon based solutions to energy to mitigate the effect of peak oil.
2. Developing incentive schemes that prevent the burning down of world forests to preserve our environment and prevent extinction of species.
3. Reducing soot output. As I pointed out above, a recent NASA study shows this would have a much more immediate effect on climate, and also provide considerable health benefits.
The sort of initiatives mentioned above have immediate benefits for society apart from any carbon reduction and would be much easier to sell. I think most skeptics would agree with these type of initiatives on the basis of their immediate benefits, if nothing else. The sum effect would be a dramatic reduction in carbon output without having to resort to dubious schemes such as the Kyoto Protocol which has carbon reduction as its only goal.
I think a lot of the skepticism from people such as myself can be laid out the feet of
the wide-eyed hysteria and deception propounded by many AGW enthusiasts such as Hansen. I think a lot of this sort of stuff is going to lead to AGW fatigue amongst the world population, and the message of the skeptics will become more appealing as a result. This would truly be sad as the issue should be decided on the basis of science, and not a popularity contest. However, AGW proponents have turned this into a popularity contest through scientists mixing science with politics. Unfortunately, if this sort of strategy is relied on, then the wheels of popularity can turn in the other direction, pushing the direction of politics along with it.
Arggh – how about keeping to a single handle. It is always hard to keep track when people shift around.
Have a read of the economist article, or even better find the editorial that went with it. C02 generation is proving to not just be a atmospheric problem. In a lot of ways the acidification of the water systems is probably even more likely to cause run-away effects.
The problem is that at present much less than a third of the generated carbon has been getting into the atmosphere for the 20th. The problem looks like it has been winding up in the oceans from a variety of methods.
The problem is that is likely cause a widespread shift in a lot of largely unknown systems. For instance it causes de-calcification which releases CO2 from calcium carbonates. That is the kind of thing that is likely to cause run-away effects before shifting to a new equilibrium. None of that is currently factored in the IPCC because the measurements were just re-performed to compare to 1970’s data.
The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now. It is taking a immense risk to carry on as if the biosphere and geology can continue soaking up the current outputs without hitting trigger events.
Short-term pallatives are just dangerous bearing in mind the unknown risk levels from what we don’t know. This is one of the few areas that I whole-heartedly agree with teh greens.
Iprent “The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now.”
Well, I think measures such as eliminating fossil fuels as an energy source would achieve exactly that goal. So would finding ways for reducing deforrestation, thus increasing carbon sinks. However, these types of solutions also solve more tangible immediate problems. They are not merely “short-term palliatives” for the C02 issue. So, I think there are a lot of aspects we would agree on.
The problem with focussing on C02 as the problem is that it can lead to other fairly speculative solutions such as painting the world white.
This sort of solution simply churns up lots of resources with little other tangible benefit. To me, this seems much more risky, because, as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty in the chaotic climate system as you say. However, solutions that stand on their own feet, regardless of whether AGW forecasts are correct or not seem to be no-brainers, and should gain acceptance readilly.
You criticised me previously for not being a scientist. That is fair, as I do not have a degree in a climate-related field. For this reason, I describe myself as a climate agnostic, having reached no firm conclusion either way as I do not see myself as qualified to do so. From my reading I am aware of a lot of spurious stuff on both sides of the debate which tends to make me suspicious with extreme claims.
I mentioned Hansen, earlier. Here is an example of how his temperature adjustments reflect against Wellington’s temperature record:
This is typical of temperature adjustment techniques Hansen has used more generally where earlier temperatures are adjusted downwards, and later temperatures are adjusted upwards, producing an apparently artificial warming trend. Sorry, can’t find my link to the article right now.
This type of behaviour does not enhance credibility on either side. When reading articles on either side of the debate I prefer to see they are based on sound science and well researched.
Busy pushing code together at present, so I’ll respond later more fully.
But the real issue is that humans have been treating the biosphere as being effectively infinite for a long time, and that their environmental effects were relatively limited. You maybe could have argued that when the worlds population was less than 1 billion in the 19th century.
Generally we’re getting quite effective at handling local effects at a national level. The pollution goes up during developmental bursts and gets fixed by affluence. This is much the same as what happens with population and medical care.
We are still ratshit at handling problems are a global level. It doesn’t matter if it is finance companies rorting their way around varying legal frameworks, trade disputes of global pollution. In the latter case there is a really depressing track record over time – only the CFC’s stand out as being moderately acceptable.
We’re now approaching 7 billion and where most people on earth are using far more resources and excreting far more waste than they did prior to 1900. We’re probably going to touch 11 billion by 2050 (which there is a moderate probability that I’ll see – born in 1959 – I’d be 90’ish). It will probably remain at that level for a long time.
The effects of humanity are getting quite intense in the atmosphere and water systems which are both cross-borders. That will intensify as the population continues to rise and affluence levels spread.
To say that I don’t give a stuff about exact measurements or pallative techniques would be an understatement. If you look back at paleogeology, the effects of what we are doing to the biosphere are well known and well understood – it makes species at the top of the food chain extinct. The only thing we don’t know is what happens when we do it as fast as we are doing it now.
Bearing in mind the 20-30 year societal and infrastructure lead times for new technologies (and techniques) to spread. We need the alternates to old technologies being developed now. Rather than having rising states develop on a basis of coal liquidification (a 1940’s technology) for their transport needs and thereby intensifying the problems, we need better technologies going down the engineering path now.
The developed countries need to be involved in setting up the framework to develop those techs now because they are the societies with
a) the economic surpluses to do it.
b) the responsibility for causing the existing level of damage.
The should do it because if they don’t, then the rest of the world population will go affluent really fast using the existing technologies. That will directly impact on us because our societies are far more suseptible to disruption (essentially any more compex system is far more suscepible to chaotic environments than simplier ones).
Frankly the CCDs like those comedians in Act should really be forced to do some learning of economics. If they’d bother to look at the downstream effects of affluence and population on the biosphere they’re exploiting using their own economic philosphies, they’d be worth listening to. Instead what we get is wishful thinking based on the idea that it all going to be someones elses problem.
NOISE.. an interesting word which my desktop Collins posits derivation from Latin’s ‘nausea’. Added thereto several strains in respect of definition:
1. loud shouting, clamor;
2. sound ie the noise of rain;
3. any unwanted electrical signal within a communication system
Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.
Which is why you can now understand I felt impelled to ask you what you meant in your use of the term. In doing so, you will now realise, we have eliminated an uncertainty of communication.
That said, and taking account your perceptible need to ‘rely on science’ per the exchange/s with lprent I’d like to suggest that in the course of commentary to this particular blog you more than most have shifted very satisfactorily away from denialist’s strategem of deliberately NOISING in rumors rather than reports.
May this continue to be the case.
Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers? Think about it.
Northpaw: “Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers?”
As more of our energy is derived from non-oil sources, there will be more oil available for other ancillary purposes such as plastics etc. If this happens incrementally at a sufficient rate then oil should be available for ancillary purposes such as plastics etc for a long time. If the concern is greenhouse gases from burning oil, then it is preferable for oil to be locked up in forms such as plastics etc that does not enter the atmosphere.
thank you for the reply.. for the attempted answer in one part and limited response in another.. Now not to labor this(pun unintended) you wrote: Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise’. which to my eyes and mind states quite clearly that ‘margin of error’ is other than “noise” — not noise itself!
Use of ‘statistical noise’ in your original commentary might have helped somewhat though I’d hasten to add the term so used would make a nonsense of your two examples in relation to sea-level rise. Else revealed them for what they were—misleading at best and incomprehensible otherwise.
If I may allow me add that either you specify context in your use of terminology or not use another’s jargon at all without reference or linking to it.
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Timothy Ford, University of Massachusetts Lowell and Charles M. Schweik, University of Massachusetts AmherstTo mitigate health inequities and promote social justice, coronavirus vaccines need to get to underserved populations and hard-to-reach communities. There are few places in the U.S. that are unreachable by road, but other factors – many ...
Israel chose to pay a bit over the odds for the Pfizer vaccine to get earlier access. Here’s The Times of Israel from 16 November. American government will be charged $39 for each two-shot dose, and the European bloc even less, but Jerusalem said to agree to pay $56. Israel ...
Orla is a gender critical Marxist in Ireland. She gave a presentation on 15 January 2021 on the connection between postmodern/transgender identity politics and the current attacks on democratic and free speech rights. Orla has been active previously in the Irish Socialist Workers Party and the People Before Profit electoral ...
. . America: The Empire Strikes Back (at itself) Further to my comments in the first part of 2020: The History That Was, the following should be considered regarding the current state of the US. They most likely will be by future historians pondering the critical decades of ...
Nathaniel ScharpingIn March, as the Covid-19 pandemic began to shut down major cities in the U.S., researchers were thinking about blood. In particular, they were worried about the U.S. blood supply — the millions of donations every year that help keep hospital patients alive when they need a transfusion. ...
Sarah L Caddy, University of CambridgeVaccines are a marvel of medicine. Few interventions can claim to have saved as many lives. But it may surprise you to know that not all vaccines provide the same level of protection. Some vaccines stop you getting symptomatic disease, but others stop you ...
Back in 2016, the Portuguese government announced plans to stop burning coal by 2030. But progress has come much quicker, and they're now scheduled to close their last coal plant by the end of this year: The Sines coal plant in Portugal went offline at midnight yesterday evening (14 ...
The Sincerest Form Of Flattery: As anybody with the intestinal fortitude to brave the commentary threads of local news-sites, large and small, will attest, the number of Trump-supporting New Zealanders is really quite astounding. IT’S SO DIFFICULT to resist the temptation to be smug. From the distant perspective of New Zealand, ...
RNZ reports on continued arbitrariness on decisions at the border. British comedian Russell Howard is about to tour New Zealand and other acts allowed in through managed isolation this summer include drag queen RuPaul and musicians at Northern Bass in Mangawhai and the Bay Dreams festival. The vice-president of the ...
As families around the world mourn more than two million people dead from Covid-19, the Plan B academics and their PR industry collaborator continue to argue that the New Zealand government should stop focusing on our managed isolation and quarantine system and instead protect the elderly so that they can ...
A chronological listing of news articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Jan 10, 2021 through Sat, Jan 16, 2021Editor's ChoiceNASA says 2020 tied for hottest year on record — here’s what you can do to helpPhoto by Michael Held on Unsplash ...
Health authorities in Norway are reporting some concerns about deaths in frail elderly after receiving their COVID-19 vaccine. Is this causally related to the vaccine? Probably not but here are the things to consider. According to the news there have been 23 deaths in Norway shortly after vaccine administration and ...
Happy New Year! No, experts are not concerned that “…one of New Zealand’s COIVD-1( vaccines will fail to protect the country” Here is why. But first I wish to issue an expletive about this journalism (First in Australia and then in NZ). It exhibits utter failure to actually truly consult ...
All nations have shadows; some acknowledge them. For others they shape their image in uncomfortable ways.The staunch Labour supporter was in despair at what her Rogernomics Government was doing. But she finished ‘at least, we got rid of Muldoon’, a response which tells us that then, and today, one’s views ...
Grigori GuitchountsIn November, Springer Nature, one of the world’s largest publishers of scientific journals, made an attention-grabbing announcement: More than 30 of its most prestigious journals, including the flagship Nature, will now allow authors to pay a fee of US$11,390 to make their papers freely available for anyone to read ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Gary Yohe, Henry Jacoby, Richard Richels, and Benjamin Santer Imagine a major climate change law passing the U.S. Congress unanimously? Don’t bother. It turns out that you don’t need to imagine it. Get this: The Global Change Research Act of 1990 was passed ...
“They’re here already! You’re next! You’re next! You’re next!”WHO CAN FORGET the penultimate scene of the 1956 movie classic, Invasion of the Body Snatchers? The wild-eyed doctor, stumbling down the highway, trying desperately to warn his fellow citizens: “They’re here already! You’re next! You’re next! You’re next!”Ostensibly science-fiction, the movie ...
TheOneRing.Net has got its paws on the official synopsis of the upcoming Amazon Tolkien TV series. It’s a development that brings to mind the line about Sauron deliberately releasing Gollum from the dungeons of Barad-dûr. Amazon knew exactly what they were doing here, in terms of drumming up publicity: ...
Since Dwight Eisenhower’s inauguration in 1953, US presidents have joined an informal club intended to provide support - and occasionally rivalry - between those few who have been ‘leaders of the free world’. Donald Trump, elected on a promise to ‘drain the swamp’ and a constant mocker of his predecessors, ...
For over a decade commentators have noted the rise of a new brand of explicitly ideological politics throughout the world. By this they usually refer to the re-emergence of national populism and avowedly illiberal approaches to governance throughout the “advanced” democratic community, but they also extend the thought to the ...
The US House of Representatives has just impeached Donald Trump, giving him the dubious honour of being the only US President to be impeached twice. Ten Republicans voted for impeachement, making it the most bipartisan impeachment ever. The question now is whether the Senate will rise to the occasion, and ...
Zero emission buses, cleaner cars and environmentally-friendly biofuels will soon be hitting New Zealand’s roads, as the Government delivers on its election promise to make our transport network more sustainable. ...
The Green Party is already delivering on its commitment for cleaner, climate-friendly transport through our Cooperation Agreement with the Government. ...
A growing public housing waiting list and continued increase of house prices must be urgently addressed by Government, Green Party Co-leader Marama Davidson said today. ...
Prudence Steven QC, barrister of Christchurch has been appointed as an Environment Judge and District Court Judge to serve in Christchurch, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Ms Steven has been a barrister sole since 2008, practising in resource management and local government / public law. She was appointed a Queen’s ...
The Government is delivering on its first tranche of election promises to take action on climate change with a raft of measures that will help meet New Zealand’s 2050 carbon neutral target, create new jobs and boost innovation. “This will be an ongoing area of action but we are moving ...
The Government is investing up to $10 million to support 30 of the country’s top early-career researchers to develop their research skills. “The pandemic has had widespread impacts across the science system, including the research workforce. After completing their PhD, researchers often travel overseas to gain experience but in the ...
A Waitomo-based Jobs for Nature project will keep up to ten people employed in the village as the tourism sector recovers post Covid-19 Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “This $500,000 project will save ten local jobs by deploying workers from Discover Waitomo into nature-based jobs. They will be undertaking local ...
Minister for Climate Change, James Shaw spoke yesterday with President Biden’s Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry. “I was delighted to have the opportunity to speak with Mr. Kerry this morning about the urgency with which our governments must confront the climate emergency. I am grateful to him and ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Hon Nanaia Mahuta today announced three diplomatic appointments: Alana Hudson as Ambassador to Poland John Riley as Consul-General to Hong Kong Stephen Wong as Consul-General to Shanghai Poland “New Zealand’s relationship with Poland is built on enduring personal, economic and historical connections. Poland is also an important ...
Work begins today at Wainuiomata High School to ensure buildings and teaching spaces are fit for purpose, Education Minister Chris Hipkins says. The Minister joined principal Janette Melrose and board chair Lynda Koia to kick off demolition for the project, which is worth close to $40 million, as the site ...
A skilled and experienced group of people have been named as the newly established Oranga Tamariki Ministerial Advisory Board by Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis today. The Board will provide independent advice and assurance to the Minister for Children across three key areas of Oranga Tamariki: relationships with families, whānau, and ...
The green light for New Zealand’s first COVID-19 vaccine could be granted in just over a week, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said today. “We’re making swift progress towards vaccinating New Zealanders against the virus, but we’re also absolutely committed to ensuring the vaccines are safe and effective,” Jacinda Ardern said. ...
The Minister for ACC is pleased to announce the appointment of three new members to join the Board of ACC on 1 February 2021. “All three bring diverse skills and experience to provide strong governance oversight to lead the direction of ACC” said Hon Carmel Sepuloni. Bella Takiari-Brame from Hamilton ...
The Government is investing $9 million to upgrade a significant community facility in Invercargill, creating economic stimulus and jobs, Infrastructure Minister Grant Robertson and Te Tai Tonga MP Rino Tirikatene have announced. The grant for Waihōpai Rūnaka Inc to make improvements to Murihiku Marae comes from the $3 billion set ...
[Opening comments, welcome and thank you to Auckland University etc] It is a great pleasure to be here this afternoon to celebrate such an historic occasion - the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This is a moment many feared would never come, but ...
The Government is providing $3 million in one-off seed funding to help disabled people around New Zealand stay connected and access support in their communities, Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni announced today. The funding will allow disability service providers to develop digital and community-based solutions over the next two ...
Border workers in quarantine facilities will be offered voluntary daily COVID-19 saliva tests in addition to their regular weekly testing, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. This additional option will be rolled out at the Jet Park Quarantine facility in Auckland starting on Monday 25 January, and then to ...
The next steps in the Government’s ambitious firearms reform programme to include a three-month buy-back have been announced by Police Minister Poto Williams today. “The last buy-back and amnesty was unprecedented for New Zealand and was successful in collecting 60,297 firearms, modifying a further 5,630 firearms, and collecting 299,837 prohibited ...
Upscaling work already underway to restore two iconic ecosystems will deliver jobs and a lasting legacy, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. “The Jobs for Nature programme provides $1.25 billion over four years to offer employment opportunities for people whose livelihoods have been impacted by the COVID-19 recession. “Two new projects ...
The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
$36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
The New Zealand public sector and judiciary has again been ranked the least corrupt in the world. The 2020 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) released today by global anti-corruption organization Transparency International ranks New Zealand first equal ...
New Zealand is again ranked first equal with Denmark in the Transparency International annual index of perceived levels of public sector corruption. Chief Ombudsman Peter Boshier has welcomed New Zealand’s position in the 2020 index. He says New Zealand’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Kaufman, Research Fellow, Vaccine Uptake Group, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute The federal government’s A$23.9 million COVID-19 vaccination information campaign, launchedyesterday, aims to reassure the public about vaccine safety and effectiveness. It will also provide information about the vaccine rollout. We’ve ...
Business is Boring is a weekly podcast series presented by The Spinoff in association with Callaghan Innovation. Host Simon Pound speaks with innovators and commentators focused on the future of New Zealand. This week he’s joined by Hongi Luo, brand director at TikTok.In terms of cultural reach and impact, the ...
After Covid devastated its 2020, Basement Theatre comes roaring into 2021 with its Summer Season. Here’s the rundown of shows in-store, with some comments from programmer Nisha Madhan.Pre-FringeLust IslandWhen’s it on: February 2-6, 8pmWho’s involved: The women of improv troupe Hearthrobs (McKenzie’s Daughters, Salem Bitch Trials), including Brynley Stent, Alice ...
The whānau of Te Ahikaiata Turei supported by Māori and non-Māori staff at Unitec will take back a portrait of the Tūhoe leader who led the establishment of Te Noho Kotahitanga Marae and the values that brought the institute back from the brink of ...
A poll across the Early Childhood Education community found 93% in favour of pausing the ‘lunchbox rules’, or the Ministry of Education’s new Food Safety/choking changes to the Licensing Criteria, which came into effect on 25 January. “The message ...
Cycling advocates are calling for the transformation of urban transport, as New Zealand races to cut carbon. The Climate Change Commission will release its initial advice on Sunday 31 January. “Bikes and e-bikes are perfect for many local trips, ...
Three Ministers, led by the PM, joined in chorus today to warble about a bunch of measures aimed at helping to meet New Zealand’s 2050 carbon neutral target, create new jobs and boost innovation. Mind you, the measures mentioned seem to be more matters of decisions yet to be made ...
Michelle Kidd defines her role at Auckland’s specialist family violence court as te kaiwhakatere – the navigator. It’s a one-of-a-kind job, helping guide defendants through the court system. And there’s no one better suited to it than Whaea Michelle.First published November 24, 2020.Whaea Michelle is part of Frame, a series of short ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sallie Yea, Associate professor & Principal Research Fellow, La Trobe University Each year, thousands of men and boys labour under extremely exploitative conditions on commercial fishing vessels owned by Taiwanese, Chinese and South Korean companies. The Taiwanese fleet, which operates in all ...
Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis believes the Crown should maintain responsibility for the care and protection of at-risk and vulnerable children, regardless of their race. Moreover, he is confident his all-Maori team of advisers will not be taking race into account as they help to improve Oranga Tamariki’s care and protection of ...
It’s easy to sacrifice John Banks. It’s a lot harder for brands, sports organisations and government to truly stop funding racism. Are they willing to try?Yesterday John Banks, the former Auckland mayor and MP, became subject to one of the fastest firings in media history when audio covering his approving ...
A community is outraged after Auckland Council granted consent for a row of trees planted by local kids to be removed along a revitalised waterway in South Auckland, reports Justin Latif. An Auckland Council decision to give contractors the all-clear to chop down 12 mānuka and kānuka trees shading Māngere’s Tararata ...
Te Pūtahitanga o Te Waipounamu hopes that the recent changes to Oranga Tamariki leadership present an opportunity for a long overdue paradigm shift that will place whānau at the heart of the child welfare sector. Pouārahi Helen Leahy says that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Rice, Professor of Management, University of New England Elon Musk is now the world’s richest person, edging out previous title holder Amazon’s Jeff Bezos. His rocketing fortune is due to the booming share price of Tesla, the maker of electric vehicles ...
There are now three returnees who contracted the virus in the Auckland isolation facility then left into the community while positive. These are some of the questions that need to be resolved. At 10.20pm last night the Ministry of Health confirmed that the two cases they’d been treating as probable ...
Having a hard time remembering to scan in on the NZ Covid Tracer app when you’re out and about? Get this song stuck in your head and you’ll never forget again.Learn the lyrics:Aotearoa, it’s time to get scanning!I mean if you think about it, it never really wasn’t time we ...
We conclude our week-long examination of New Zealand writer Roderick Finlayson with a review of his stories by John Newton Roger Hickin’s Cold Hub Press is one of the small miracles of contemporary New Zealand publishing. Over the last decade, on what can only be a shoe-string budget, the ...
Thursday 28th January, AUCKLAND: Drive Electric, the not-for-profit with one mission – making electric vehicle uptake in New Zealand mainstream, welcomes the announcement by the Government today as a sign of what’s to come through 2021, and we are confident ...
The Government announced today key policy decisions on the proposed clean car policies. The MIA has stated on many occasions that we support well thought out and constructive policies that will lead to an increased rate in the reduction of CO2 emissions from ...
Get wild, get cultured, get fed and then get to bed: the essential guide to a perfect few days in the southern city. There’s one thing that preoccupies the staff of The Spinoff almost as much as arranging popular food items into arbitrary lists, and that’s Dunedin. A quite remarkable ...
John Banks’ racist exchange with a Magic Talk listener on Tuesday was the latest in nearly 50 years of talkback controversies. Donna Chisholm has the receipts.John Banks axed over Māori ‘stone age culture’ comments on Magic Talk1972: On Radio I, sports talkback host Tim Bickerstaff launches a “Punch a Pom ...
*This article first appeared on RNZ and is republished with permission.Two new community Covid-19 cases have been identified as the more infectious South African variant, but Auckland Mayor Phil Goff sayit would be "premature to go into lockdown now". The two new cases of Covid-19 identified in the ...
Today, for the second time in two months Dunedin climate protectors have locked themselves to the railway tracks outside the Dunedin Railway station to stop the KiwiRail coal train from Bathurst Resources’ Takitimu mine in Southland to Fonterra’s ...
KiwiRail STOP Hauling COAL Today, for the second time in two months Dunedin climate protectors have locked themselves to the railway tracks outside the Dunedin Railway station to stop the KiwiRail coal train from Bathurst Resources’ Takitimu mine ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Dunn, Associate professor, University of Sydney The government is rolling out a new public information campaign this week to reassure the public about the safety of COVID-19 vaccines, which one expert has said “couldn’t be more crucial” to people actually getting ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Therese O’Sullivan, Associate Professor, Edith Cowan University The COVID vaccine rollout has placed the issue of vaccination firmly in the spotlight. A successful rollout will depend on a variety of factors, one of which is vaccine acceptance. One potential hurdle to vaccine ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bernard Walker, Associate Professor in Organisations and Leadership, University of Canterbury Kiwis know what it’s like when life throws curveballs. We’ve had major quakes, floods, fires, an eruption, a terrorist attack and now a pandemic. In those situations, it’s the ability to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Irwin, Emeritus professor, Murdoch University While we continue to be occupied with the COVID pandemic, another life-threatening disease has emerged in northern Australia, one that’s cause for considerable alarm for the millions of dog owners around the country. This disease — ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cath Ferguson, Academic, Edith Cowan University Almost half of Australian adults struggle with reading. Similar levels of struggling readers are reported in the United Kingdom and United States. This does not mean all struggling readers are illiterate. It means they often struggle ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Abbas Shieh, Assistant Professor of Urban Planning and Design, Islamic Azad University The industrial revolution transformed cities, resulting in places of residence and work becoming more distant than ever before. This spatial segregation is still largely embedded in the design of our ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ari Mattes, Lecturer in Communications and Media, University of Notre Dame Australia Review: Occupation: Rainfall, written and directed by Luke Sparke Historically, when a sequel to a film was greenlit, you could rest assured this was because the first film made a ...
Welcome to The Spinoff’s live updates for January 28, keeping you up to date with the latest local and international news. Reach me on stewart@thespinoff.co.nzOur members make The Spinoff happen! Every dollar contributed directly funds our editorial team – click here to learn more about how you can support us ...
Good morning and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Tourism suffers in the shadow of Covid-19, two new positive cases in Auckland confirmed, and National will contest the Māori electorates.The front page of the January 4 Greymouth Star carried grim tidings for several of the glacier towns on the ...
*This article first appeared on RNZ and is republished with permission. Two people who left managed isolation on January 15 have been confirmed as positive Covid-19 cases, with the Ministry of Health urging anyone who visited the same locations during the same time period as the infected pair in Auckland to ...
The watchlist of 'offensive or unreasonable' babies' names is to be reviewed, to include more names from other languages. Generations of the Īhaka family have played a meaningful role in bringing Te Reo and stories of Māori to our wider community. Archdeacon Sir Kīngi Matutaera Īhaka (Te Aupōuri, 1921-93) was known as the orator of ...
After Morocco’s flagrant violation of the terms of the ceasefire in Western Sahara on Friday 13 November 2020 war broke out between the two sides. In the midst of this war Tauranga based Ballance Agri-Nutrients has decided to carry on importing phosphate ...
Nicholas Agar suggests that our handling of the pandemic could be partly down to our distinctive Treaty of Waitangi relationship, and Māori ideas that enabled us to make it through without tens of thousands of deaths A mission for universities in the coming decade will be a deep understanding of the meaning ...
A young girl who once sent $5 to an embattled America's Cup team is now among the women on the water helping run the contest for the Auld Mug. As an eager and generous nine-year-old, Melanie Roberts posted a letter, with a $5 note, to OneAustralia’s America’s Cup team. It was 1995, ...
At 5am today, cock’s crow, the embargo lifted on the Ockham New Zealand Book Awards longlist. Here are the books in the race, followed by thoughts from poetry editor Chris Tse and books editor Catherine Woulfe. A shortlist of four books in each category will be announced March 3, with ...
Ignoring those QR codes when you drop into the supermarket? Can’t be bothered when you grab a coffee? The people serving you notice, and you’re freaking them out.So far, New Zealanders’ use of the Covid-19 Tracer app has been notably woeful. Food industry workers who’ve watched streams of customers walk ...
Steve Braunias reveals the longlist of the 2021 Ockham New Zealand book awards Apart from one or two unfortunate omissions which cast doubt on the sanity and intellectual acumen of judges, especially the nobodies who judged this year's non-fiction, the longlist for the 2021 Ockham New Zealand book awards is ...
By Lulu Mark in Port Moresby Papua New Guinea’s biggest hospital is straining to provide medical services to the growing population of the capital Port Moresby – with an estimated growth rate of 3 percent annually, a medical executive says. Port Moresby General Hospital chief executive officer Dr Paki Molumi ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Nationals who attend Thursday’s memorial service in Tweed Heads for Doug Anthony, who died last month aged 90, may muse on the contrast between the state of their party when he led it and now. ...
Returning to quarantine-free travel in 2021 doesn't just need a vaccine, but a way to check whether arriving passengers are actually immune to the virus. A smart Kiwi science start-up is working with a global biometrics giant to make that happen. A deal signed between Kiwi research and development company Orbis Diagnostics, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitlyn Forster, PhD Candidate, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney This summer’s wetter conditions have created great conditions for flowering plants. Flowers provide sweet nectar and protein-rich pollen, attracting many insects, including bees. Commercial honey bees are also thriving: ...
Lotto scratchie tickets featuring the pop band Six60 are being withdrawn after a public backlash. In a statement, Lotto NZ said there had been a mutual decision made with the band to remove the tickets from sale following the negative feedback, and it offered an apology. The band faced criticism, both ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Russell Dean Christopher Bicknell, Post-doctoral researcher in Palaeobiology , University of New England Shell-crushing predation was already in full swing half a billion years ago, as our new research published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B reveals. A hyena devouring ...
Vodafone has suspended advertising on the radio station amid calls for talkback host John Banks to be taken off air after yet another racist outburst. Alex Braae reports. In an alarming segment of talkback radio, former Auckland mayor John Banks endorsed the views of a caller who described Māori as a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Welch, Senior Lecturer, University of Auckland When a COVID-19 case was found in Northland last Sunday, Aotearoa’s second-longest period with no detected community case came to an end. ESR scientists worked late into Sunday night to obtain a whole genome sequence ...
He has the perfect moustache, an exceptional mullet, and he uses terms like ‘face hole’ on national TV. Who or what is Dr Joel Rindelaub?I was drawn in by the moustache, but it was the mullet that really kept me there. Watching TVNZ’s Breakfast yesterday morning I was fixated. Often, ...
We’ll never be royals with nearly a quarter of declined baby names featuring “Royal” in some form or another. Te Tari Taiwhenua Department of Internal Affairs has released the list of names declined in 2020 by the Registrar-General of Births, Deaths and ...
After a raft of inquiries delving into and recommending what should be done about the politically beleaguered Orangi Tamaraki, along with the briefing papers we suppose he has been given, we imagined Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis would have no more need for expert advice. Wrong. He has ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vincent Ho, Senior Lecturer and clinical academic gastroenterologist, Western Sydney University There’s a common assumption men take longer than women to poo. People say so on Twitter, in memes, and elsewhereonline. But is that right? What could explain it? And if ...
Just as sexuality is a spectrum, so too is asexuality. In Ace of Hearts, members of New Zealand’s asexual community talk about the challenges and misconceptions of identifying as ace.First published November 17, 2020.Ace of Hearts is part of Frame, a series of short documentaries produced by Wrestler for The Spinoff.“A ...
Sam Brooks wasn’t allowed to watch kids TV as a kid. Now, as a 30 year old man, he watches it for the first time.My mother’s approach to parenting was unorthodox. I wrote weekly book reports on top of my actual homework, I did maths equations in Roman numerals and ...
Pacific Media Watch newsdesk More leading Indonesian figures have made racial slurs against Natalius Pigai, former chair of the National Human Rights Commission (Komnas HAM) – and all West Papuans, says United Liberation Movement of West Papua (ULMWP) interim president Benny Wenda. “Since the illegal Indonesian invasion in 1963, Indonesian ...
“The Government’s failure to even conduct a standard cost-benefit analysis for the most expensive infrastructure project in New Zealand’s history is mind-bogglingly arrogant,” says New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union spokesman Louis Houlbrooke. “A ...
The Ministry of Health is today drawing backlash from the local New Zealand vaping industry following its release of proposed regulations for the Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products Act. Vaping Trade Association New Zealand (VTANZ) President, ...
Sophie Gilmour and Simon Day are joined by special guest Hugo Baird, co-owner of Grey Lynn’s Honey Bones and Lilian, to talk about opening new pub Hotel Ponsonby.Auckland is a city of many bars but few really good pubs – the kind of places you’d be just as comfortable going ...
The appointment of an advisory board for Oranga Tamariki is welcome and should be a step toward a total transformation of the care and protection system to a by Māori, for Māori approach, Children’s Commissioner Andrew Becroft said today. Minister ...
Taking control of your financial wellbeing can have cascading positive impacts for your life and it can also be fun. With the help of the team at Kiwi Wealth, we’ve compiled some simple tricks for balancing your books in 2021. There’s something about the beginning of a new year, especially after ...
I see that the big problem appears to be soot not C02 according to this NASA study:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/soot-reduction-could-help-to-stop-global-warming-1224481.html
It appears that we get much more bang for our buck with respect to AGW (if true) by cleaning up the soot rather than the C02. Plus there are health side-benefits as well. What environmentally concious person could possibly argue with cleaning up the dirty smoke? This seems much more practical and cost effective than emmission trading schemes and the like.
Maybe the hysteria about C02 is being misdirected.
There is no ‘hysteria’ about CO2, it is a scientific fact that it traps heat and it is also a fact we are pumping billions of tonnes of the stuff into the atomsphere.
Soot, which is mainly carbon (note, not carbon dioxide) also has a greenhouse effect. Of course we should reduce it as possible.
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output. As we’ve become cleaner that cooling effect has reduced and global temperuate increase has taken off.
also interestingly. Soylent Green, the movie made in 1973 and set in 2022 has the temperature hotter than now due to the greenhouse effect.
Don’t forget the CFC effect as well SP.
HS: CFCs are responsible for about 12% of AGW. There’s not much more that can be done now – they are heavily regulated (under the Montreal Protocol) and atmospheric concentrations are falling. Because they are such stable molecules we’ll have to wait for a long while (decades, even centuries for some kinds of CFC) for them to all break down.
Steve, even if we doubled the amount of C02 in the atmosphere, the effect would be neglible if C02 was the sole cause. However, it is well recognised that AGW is based more around the secondary effects of increased water vapour that is thought to occur due to the small temperature increase caused by C02. However, it is not well understood what the balance is between positive and negative forcings that determine climate sensitivity. This is clear when we compare the worst-case scenario from the IPCC of around 59 cm increase with the predictions of Huber of up to 100 metres increase in sea level:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10551751
It seems clear that there is far to much noise in the models to draw any firm conclusions. Also, it is accepted that endevours such as the Kyoto protocol are going to have negligible effect on AGW (if true) in any case. On the other hand, reducing soot is going to have an immediate and substantial effect according to the NASA report I cited. Since we are in a zero-sum game so far as our financial resources are concerned, it seems a no-brainer to direct our energy into something that is going to have a substantial effect (if AGW is correct) and have a positive effect on the environment generally compared to a dubious strategy such as Kyoto.
tsmithfield:
The Herald article is interesting. The paleoclimatologists reckon that the world could warm up a lot more than IPCC model’s would have us believe, which is certainly a worry.
Their archeological evidence is pretty telling. But there is a big difference between the Eocene greenhouse and the modern one. The greenhouse in the Eocene was supposedly cranked up by the result of a sudden release of methane clathrates. When this happens, the amount of methane released can be enormous, and it’s autocatalytic because it causes more global warming which tends to melt more clathrates.
But our greenhouse is not so methane-driven. I am pretty sure that most anthropogenic emissions are C02 (though methane and CFCs are significant). Maybe in the Eocene there was some specifically methane-related that led to the greater warming? Something to do with cloud formation perhaps … it could be very hard to know.
In any case, I don’t see why the possibility of cheap reductions in black carbon emissions should absolve us of the need to make (more expensive) reductions in C02 and methane as well?
tsmithfield:
Let me just stop you there.
A “zero-sum game”? Are you serious?
Con: The question is what caused a state change and released those methane clathrates. Once it starts, it is likely to be a runaway.
It’d have to either be a increase in temperature or a decrease in pressure or maybe (remote possibility) a change in chemical conditions.
Look – we’re doing the temperature change right now with our releases of greenhouse gases. We’re also managing to warm the oceans, and warmer water is less dense – ie less pressure maybe. Oh and the chemical composition of the oceans is changing.
Perhaps all of those things happened in the Eocene and other periods – from vulcanism is most likely. But if anything triggers a state change in the MC’s then we will really start to see a change. Guess what we’re on a path to do just that.
BTW: The IPCC estimates are the most conservative options from the most established evidence. Most people with some understanding of earth sciences (like me) or climatology consider that they give the best possible option. To date their estimates keep getting worse on each iteration and as the evidence mounts.
Echoing what Lynn says above – the IPCC is essentially hobbled by the requirement to appear “rational and restrained”. There are numerous scientists who are members of the panel on record stating that their actual views are not represented accurately, as the “agreed statement” was watered down to a far less dramatic version of reality to avoid sowing the seeds of hysteria or (more likely) threatening IPCC credibility and allowing opponents to brand them as loonies. It is incredible the damage an oil industry exec can do just by appearing on TV and saying “100m? pfft. You’d have to be an idiot to believe that”.
You’ll note that their predictions have been becoming steadily worse and more forcefully phrased. Expect that trend to continue.
People like to believe the safe option much more than they like to sit down with a calculator and work out how much water is in the antarctic icecap.
Steve P.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century. I think like the CO2 hysteria being drummed up for political purposes you just made that little bit of BS up to support your assertion that CO2 is the big scary heat up the planet monster you want it to be.
Antarctic ice cap?
But that’s at the bottom of the planet. As it melts it’ll drip down, not up.
You just made that “Antarctic ice monster” up to scare people for political purposes. I saw on youtube that scientists make up stuff too.
ha ha helix. maybe another option is to simply relax and enjoy …
ya?
noh?
seriously.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.
Here’s the context of what steve said …
(emphasis mine)
Look at what the ‘this’ burt wants a link for refers to. Go on. I’ll wait.
Got it?
Yet he paraphrased it as ” scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.”
dishonest, stupid or both?
the debate continues…
How many years must the cooling continue before we admit we were wrong about global warming?
No statistically significant rise in average temperatures since 1995, and a cooling trend since 2002.
In this period human caused co2 output has increased 30%+, so clearly there is something with a larger effect going on or we have hit a stable state.
SBlount
Some interesting reading here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs
So what happened in the late 1600’s ? There is an interesting graph in this article that might provide some answers.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/06mar_solarminimum.htm
And if you look at the temperature graphs here there is some interesting correlations that only the most gullible could believe are coincidence.
Still it’s not trendy to “not be in control” and the human ego is so big that naturally if there is anything changing on earth we must be responsible. If the cause of the change is outside of our control (or even influence) then we don’t get to take the place as being the most important thing on earth when it comes to climate.
burt,
Agreed, you cannot control a non-linear, complex system. You must observe carefully and humbly manage outcomes as all inputs will have unintended consequences.
Nobody knows the future except that there will be change, nature will always adjust, but humanity is less flexible and mobile.
We are approaching the historical maximum interglacial temperature, and temperatures could still go up, or they could go down. We don’t know if solar activity will drive this, or what kind of things might happen at increased co2 levels (as all global warming has eventually become global cooling and vice versa)
How many years must the cooling continue before we admit we were wrong about global warming?
About 30 would be the generally accepted answer.
No statistically significant rise in average temperatures since 1995, and a cooling trend since 2002.
Provide a link and I will demolish it. Warning I work with time trends all day every day.
About 30 would be the generally accepted answer.
There was 30 years of cooling between 1940-1970 during a period of sharply increasing co2 concentration.
Provide a link and I will demolish it. Warning I work with time trends all day every day.
I heard it in a debate from Prof Bob M. Carter at the 33rd International Geological Conference.
Very cute. Bob Carter. Autodemolished.
I did ask for a link, but I found one for you here in this article by Bob Carter.
The salient facts are these. First, the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2.
8 years is too short a period compared with the noise and variation in the data. If for example I stated that for the last 30 minutes the temperature in my room here in Wellington was a very stable 23 degC, and therefore there was no such thing as winter… you would conclude I was a total doofus.
A more complete review is here.
RedLogiox
In mid January (in NZ) any conclusion that there is no winter would make you a doofus.
However have I got this correct, we needed the ETS rushed through under urgency because we needed to act really really quickly on climate change yet 8 years is too short a time frame to make valid observations about climate data.
Three or four months of cross party consultation would take too long but 30 years is a valid observation period – it’s not about science is it !
There is an element of “Pascal’s wager” to it.
If only Pascal’s Bookie were here…
Is it me, or does the polar bear look like hes laughing???
Ha, he does!
Somehow I doubt that the guy is laughing though.
tsmithfield,
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
Northpaw “tsmithfield,
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models”
By noise I mean margins of error due to uncertainties in the data. Given that predictions range from centimetres of sea level rise to one hundred metres of sea level rise, then it seems that the noise must be quite high.
One source for noise is the heat-island effects associated with growing cities. While statistical corrections are made for these effects, it remains questionable whether the corrections are adequate. Also, rural stations have been dropped out over recent years meaning that part of the observed rise has at least in part been an artifact of the distribution of stations rather than necessarily real increases in temperature.
Here is are several links which show an exchange between a AGW skeptic and believer on the topic that arose from a media interview.
http://www.businessandmedia.org/printer/2009/20090114065138.aspx
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/cnn-is-spun-right-round-baby-right-round/
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/URBANIZATION_IN_THE_TEMPERATURE_DATA_BASES.pdf
Another source of uncertainty is the sensitivity of the system to increases in C02. This depends on the balance between positive and negative forcings in clouds which is still not well understood. Here is a peer reviewed article on the subject.
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-pdf&file=i1520-0442-21-21-5624.pdf&ct=1
tsmithfield. The whole system is uncertain – it is inherently complex and chaotic. That is the nature of natural systems. If we had a few hundred years of good observations under a reasonably steady state system we might be able to have a nice predictive model. As it is we have less than a 30 years of good data, less than hundred years of reasonable data, and completely patchy data prior to that. This is in a system that requires hundreds of years to show effects to the full.
As it is we’re working in a system with limited long-term measurement and where the system is already changing. What is certain is that we are changing the climate, and quite drastically and with uncertain outcomes. The only thing you can be absolutely sure of, is that the effects are underestimated in the IPCC estimates. Effectively we are venus-forming (ie not terra-forming) the earth with no accurate idea of predicted outcomes.
Unlike what I can see of your level of scientific knowledge, I actually know something about earth sciences. It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes. That is the action of a mindless fool. I can just see you wanting to bring back DDT on the basis that a full causal link wasn’t proved between its use and the long term cumulative effects – we didn’t wait long enough to observe them. The same logic applies as for your pitiful attempts above to do the same thing. By your premise we shouldn’t do anything about birth control either. It isn’t absolutely certain that a child will result from sex
For instance we currently have no idea if things will get warmer overall or colder in different areas. It depends on ‘trigger’ effects in ocean currents like the Gulf stream with things like fresh water dilution. It is climate change – it probably will involve global warming in the short-term. It will probably involve local cooling, especially in places like northern europe that get a large proportion of their heat from ocean current transfers.
It is only the accidental comics of the climate deniers who look for simple and known solutions.. Why? I think it is probably because they are quite simple people. In my experience – too simple to adsorb the science even if you tell them in worlds of few syllables…
If you want to look at major effects (rather than minor (almost trivial) like the ones you mentioned (always favorites of the CC commedians)) , then have a look at the summary in the Economist about the ocean adsorption rates. Effectively the biggest CO2 adsorption system is filling rapidly. I’ll give you a hint – figure out how what volume of CO2 was required to move the pH of the volume of the oceans. The figure out how a rising pH starts to slow the adsorbtion rates.
Personally I suspect that the calculations are beyond you – prove me wrong.. But I suspect we’ll just get subjected to links to more pathetic attempts at people trying to talk about things they don’t understand.
Iprent “It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes”
You assume that I propose doing nothing. This assumption cannot validly be drawn from what I have said.
Rather than focusing on the problem of C02, I think there are a lot of smaller problems we should be focusing on that have clear determinable benefits. The sum result will be to deal with the carbon problem, if in fact it is a problem. Let me give you some examples:
1. Non-carbon based solutions to energy to mitigate the effect of peak oil.
2. Developing incentive schemes that prevent the burning down of world forests to preserve our environment and prevent extinction of species.
3. Reducing soot output. As I pointed out above, a recent NASA study shows this would have a much more immediate effect on climate, and also provide considerable health benefits.
The sort of initiatives mentioned above have immediate benefits for society apart from any carbon reduction and would be much easier to sell. I think most skeptics would agree with these type of initiatives on the basis of their immediate benefits, if nothing else. The sum effect would be a dramatic reduction in carbon output without having to resort to dubious schemes such as the Kyoto Protocol which has carbon reduction as its only goal.
I think a lot of the skepticism from people such as myself can be laid out the feet of
the wide-eyed hysteria and deception propounded by many AGW enthusiasts such as Hansen. I think a lot of this sort of stuff is going to lead to AGW fatigue amongst the world population, and the message of the skeptics will become more appealing as a result. This would truly be sad as the issue should be decided on the basis of science, and not a popularity contest. However, AGW proponents have turned this into a popularity contest through scientists mixing science with politics. Unfortunately, if this sort of strategy is relied on, then the wheels of popularity can turn in the other direction, pushing the direction of politics along with it.
Arggh – how about keeping to a single handle. It is always hard to keep track when people shift around.
Have a read of the economist article, or even better find the editorial that went with it. C02 generation is proving to not just be a atmospheric problem. In a lot of ways the acidification of the water systems is probably even more likely to cause run-away effects.
The problem is that at present much less than a third of the generated carbon has been getting into the atmosphere for the 20th. The problem looks like it has been winding up in the oceans from a variety of methods.
The problem is that is likely cause a widespread shift in a lot of largely unknown systems. For instance it causes de-calcification which releases CO2 from calcium carbonates. That is the kind of thing that is likely to cause run-away effects before shifting to a new equilibrium. None of that is currently factored in the IPCC because the measurements were just re-performed to compare to 1970’s data.
The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now. It is taking a immense risk to carry on as if the biosphere and geology can continue soaking up the current outputs without hitting trigger events.
Short-term pallatives are just dangerous bearing in mind the unknown risk levels from what we don’t know. This is one of the few areas that I whole-heartedly agree with teh greens.
Iprent “The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now.”
Well, I think measures such as eliminating fossil fuels as an energy source would achieve exactly that goal. So would finding ways for reducing deforrestation, thus increasing carbon sinks. However, these types of solutions also solve more tangible immediate problems. They are not merely “short-term palliatives” for the C02 issue. So, I think there are a lot of aspects we would agree on.
The problem with focussing on C02 as the problem is that it can lead to other fairly speculative solutions such as painting the world white.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/16/white-paint-carbon-emissions-climate
This sort of solution simply churns up lots of resources with little other tangible benefit. To me, this seems much more risky, because, as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty in the chaotic climate system as you say. However, solutions that stand on their own feet, regardless of whether AGW forecasts are correct or not seem to be no-brainers, and should gain acceptance readilly.
You criticised me previously for not being a scientist. That is fair, as I do not have a degree in a climate-related field. For this reason, I describe myself as a climate agnostic, having reached no firm conclusion either way as I do not see myself as qualified to do so. From my reading I am aware of a lot of spurious stuff on both sides of the debate which tends to make me suspicious with extreme claims.
I mentioned Hansen, earlier. Here is an example of how his temperature adjustments reflect against Wellington’s temperature record:
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2007/09/is-james-hansen.html
This is typical of temperature adjustment techniques Hansen has used more generally where earlier temperatures are adjusted downwards, and later temperatures are adjusted upwards, producing an apparently artificial warming trend. Sorry, can’t find my link to the article right now.
This type of behaviour does not enhance credibility on either side. When reading articles on either side of the debate I prefer to see they are based on sound science and well researched.
Busy pushing code together at present, so I’ll respond later more fully.
But the real issue is that humans have been treating the biosphere as being effectively infinite for a long time, and that their environmental effects were relatively limited. You maybe could have argued that when the worlds population was less than 1 billion in the 19th century.
Generally we’re getting quite effective at handling local effects at a national level. The pollution goes up during developmental bursts and gets fixed by affluence. This is much the same as what happens with population and medical care.
We are still ratshit at handling problems are a global level. It doesn’t matter if it is finance companies rorting their way around varying legal frameworks, trade disputes of global pollution. In the latter case there is a really depressing track record over time – only the CFC’s stand out as being moderately acceptable.
We’re now approaching 7 billion and where most people on earth are using far more resources and excreting far more waste than they did prior to 1900. We’re probably going to touch 11 billion by 2050 (which there is a moderate probability that I’ll see – born in 1959 – I’d be 90’ish). It will probably remain at that level for a long time.
The effects of humanity are getting quite intense in the atmosphere and water systems which are both cross-borders. That will intensify as the population continues to rise and affluence levels spread.
To say that I don’t give a stuff about exact measurements or pallative techniques would be an understatement. If you look back at paleogeology, the effects of what we are doing to the biosphere are well known and well understood – it makes species at the top of the food chain extinct. The only thing we don’t know is what happens when we do it as fast as we are doing it now.
Bearing in mind the 20-30 year societal and infrastructure lead times for new technologies (and techniques) to spread. We need the alternates to old technologies being developed now. Rather than having rising states develop on a basis of coal liquidification (a 1940’s technology) for their transport needs and thereby intensifying the problems, we need better technologies going down the engineering path now.
The developed countries need to be involved in setting up the framework to develop those techs now because they are the societies with
a) the economic surpluses to do it.
b) the responsibility for causing the existing level of damage.
The should do it because if they don’t, then the rest of the world population will go affluent really fast using the existing technologies. That will directly impact on us because our societies are far more suseptible to disruption (essentially any more compex system is far more suscepible to chaotic environments than simplier ones).
Frankly the CCDs like those comedians in Act should really be forced to do some learning of economics. If they’d bother to look at the downstream effects of affluence and population on the biosphere they’re exploiting using their own economic philosphies, they’d be worth listening to. Instead what we get is wishful thinking based on the idea that it all going to be someones elses problem.
tsmithfield,
NOISE.. an interesting word which my desktop Collins posits derivation from Latin’s ‘nausea’. Added thereto several strains in respect of definition:
1. loud shouting, clamor;
2. sound ie the noise of rain;
3. any unwanted electrical signal within a communication system
Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.
Which is why you can now understand I felt impelled to ask you what you meant in your use of the term. In doing so, you will now realise, we have eliminated an uncertainty of communication.
That said, and taking account your perceptible need to ‘rely on science’ per the exchange/s with lprent I’d like to suggest that in the course of commentary to this particular blog you more than most have shifted very satisfactorily away from denialist’s strategem of deliberately NOISING in rumors rather than reports.
May this continue to be the case.
Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers? Think about it.
Do.
Northpaw: “Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.”
Here is a link to a definition for statistical noise, which is pretty much as I understand it. Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise”.
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-statistical-noise.htm
Northpaw: “Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers?”
As more of our energy is derived from non-oil sources, there will be more oil available for other ancillary purposes such as plastics etc. If this happens incrementally at a sufficient rate then oil should be available for ancillary purposes such as plastics etc for a long time. If the concern is greenhouse gases from burning oil, then it is preferable for oil to be locked up in forms such as plastics etc that does not enter the atmosphere.
tsmithfield,
thank you for the reply.. for the attempted answer in one part and limited response in another.. Now not to labor this(pun unintended) you wrote: Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise’. which to my eyes and mind states quite clearly that ‘margin of error’ is other than “noise” — not noise itself!
Use of ‘statistical noise’ in your original commentary might have helped somewhat though I’d hasten to add the term so used would make a nonsense of your two examples in relation to sea-level rise. Else revealed them for what they were—misleading at best and incomprehensible otherwise.
If I may allow me add that either you specify context in your use of terminology or not use another’s jargon at all without reference or linking to it.