It appears that we get much more bang for our buck with respect to AGW (if true) by cleaning up the soot rather than the C02. Plus there are health side-benefits as well. What environmentally concious person could possibly argue with cleaning up the dirty smoke? This seems much more practical and cost effective than emmission trading schemes and the like.
Maybe the hysteria about C02 is being misdirected.
There is no ‘hysteria’ about CO2, it is a scientific fact that it traps heat and it is also a fact we are pumping billions of tonnes of the stuff into the atomsphere.
Soot, which is mainly carbon (note, not carbon dioxide) also has a greenhouse effect. Of course we should reduce it as possible.
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output. As we’ve become cleaner that cooling effect has reduced and global temperuate increase has taken off.
also interestingly. Soylent Green, the movie made in 1973 and set in 2022 has the temperature hotter than now due to the greenhouse effect.
HS: CFCs are responsible for about 12% of AGW. There’s not much more that can be done now – they are heavily regulated (under the Montreal Protocol) and atmospheric concentrations are falling. Because they are such stable molecules we’ll have to wait for a long while (decades, even centuries for some kinds of CFC) for them to all break down.
Steve, even if we doubled the amount of C02 in the atmosphere, the effect would be neglible if C02 was the sole cause. However, it is well recognised that AGW is based more around the secondary effects of increased water vapour that is thought to occur due to the small temperature increase caused by C02. However, it is not well understood what the balance is between positive and negative forcings that determine climate sensitivity. This is clear when we compare the worst-case scenario from the IPCC of around 59 cm increase with the predictions of Huber of up to 100 metres increase in sea level:
It seems clear that there is far to much noise in the models to draw any firm conclusions. Also, it is accepted that endevours such as the Kyoto protocol are going to have negligible effect on AGW (if true) in any case. On the other hand, reducing soot is going to have an immediate and substantial effect according to the NASA report I cited. Since we are in a zero-sum game so far as our financial resources are concerned, it seems a no-brainer to direct our energy into something that is going to have a substantial effect (if AGW is correct) and have a positive effect on the environment generally compared to a dubious strategy such as Kyoto.
tsmithfield:
The Herald article is interesting. The paleoclimatologists reckon that the world could warm up a lot more than IPCC model’s would have us believe, which is certainly a worry.
Their archeological evidence is pretty telling. But there is a big difference between the Eocene greenhouse and the modern one. The greenhouse in the Eocene was supposedly cranked up by the result of a sudden release of methane clathrates. When this happens, the amount of methane released can be enormous, and it’s autocatalytic because it causes more global warming which tends to melt more clathrates.
But our greenhouse is not so methane-driven. I am pretty sure that most anthropogenic emissions are C02 (though methane and CFCs are significant). Maybe in the Eocene there was some specifically methane-related that led to the greater warming? Something to do with cloud formation perhaps … it could be very hard to know.
In any case, I don’t see why the possibility of cheap reductions in black carbon emissions should absolve us of the need to make (more expensive) reductions in C02 and methane as well?
Con: The question is what caused a state change and released those methane clathrates. Once it starts, it is likely to be a runaway.
It’d have to either be a increase in temperature or a decrease in pressure or maybe (remote possibility) a change in chemical conditions.
Look – we’re doing the temperature change right now with our releases of greenhouse gases. We’re also managing to warm the oceans, and warmer water is less dense – ie less pressure maybe. Oh and the chemical composition of the oceans is changing.
Perhaps all of those things happened in the Eocene and other periods – from vulcanism is most likely. But if anything triggers a state change in the MC’s then we will really start to see a change. Guess what we’re on a path to do just that.
BTW: The IPCC estimates are the most conservative options from the most established evidence. Most people with some understanding of earth sciences (like me) or climatology consider that they give the best possible option. To date their estimates keep getting worse on each iteration and as the evidence mounts.
Echoing what Lynn says above – the IPCC is essentially hobbled by the requirement to appear “rational and restrained”. There are numerous scientists who are members of the panel on record stating that their actual views are not represented accurately, as the “agreed statement” was watered down to a far less dramatic version of reality to avoid sowing the seeds of hysteria or (more likely) threatening IPCC credibility and allowing opponents to brand them as loonies. It is incredible the damage an oil industry exec can do just by appearing on TV and saying “100m? pfft. You’d have to be an idiot to believe that”.
You’ll note that their predictions have been becoming steadily worse and more forcefully phrased. Expect that trend to continue.
People like to believe the safe option much more than they like to sit down with a calculator and work out how much water is in the antarctic icecap.
It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century. I think like the CO2 hysteria being drummed up for political purposes you just made that little bit of BS up to support your assertion that CO2 is the big scary heat up the planet monster you want it to be.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.
Here’s the context of what steve said …
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output.
(emphasis mine)
Look at what the ‘this’ burt wants a link for refers to. Go on. I’ll wait.
Got it?
Yet he paraphrased it as ” scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.”
And if you look at the temperature graphs here there is some interesting correlations that only the most gullible could believe are coincidence.
Still it’s not trendy to “not be in control” and the human ego is so big that naturally if there is anything changing on earth we must be responsible. If the cause of the change is outside of our control (or even influence) then we don’t get to take the place as being the most important thing on earth when it comes to climate.
Agreed, you cannot control a non-linear, complex system. You must observe carefully and humbly manage outcomes as all inputs will have unintended consequences.
Nobody knows the future except that there will be change, nature will always adjust, but humanity is less flexible and mobile.
We are approaching the historical maximum interglacial temperature, and temperatures could still go up, or they could go down. We don’t know if solar activity will drive this, or what kind of things might happen at increased co2 levels (as all global warming has eventually become global cooling and vice versa)
I did ask for a link, but I found one for you here in this article by Bob Carter.
The salient facts are these. First, the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2.
8 years is too short a period compared with the noise and variation in the data. If for example I stated that for the last 30 minutes the temperature in my room here in Wellington was a very stable 23 degC, and therefore there was no such thing as winter… you would conclude I was a total doofus.
In mid January (in NZ) any conclusion that there is no winter would make you a doofus.
However have I got this correct, we needed the ETS rushed through under urgency because we needed to act really really quickly on climate change yet 8 years is too short a time frame to make valid observations about climate data.
Three or four months of cross party consultation would take too long but 30 years is a valid observation period – it’s not about science is it !
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models”
By noise I mean margins of error due to uncertainties in the data. Given that predictions range from centimetres of sea level rise to one hundred metres of sea level rise, then it seems that the noise must be quite high.
One source for noise is the heat-island effects associated with growing cities. While statistical corrections are made for these effects, it remains questionable whether the corrections are adequate. Also, rural stations have been dropped out over recent years meaning that part of the observed rise has at least in part been an artifact of the distribution of stations rather than necessarily real increases in temperature.
Here is are several links which show an exchange between a AGW skeptic and believer on the topic that arose from a media interview.
Another source of uncertainty is the sensitivity of the system to increases in C02. This depends on the balance between positive and negative forcings in clouds which is still not well understood. Here is a peer reviewed article on the subject.
tsmithfield. The whole system is uncertain – it is inherently complex and chaotic. That is the nature of natural systems. If we had a few hundred years of good observations under a reasonably steady state system we might be able to have a nice predictive model. As it is we have less than a 30 years of good data, less than hundred years of reasonable data, and completely patchy data prior to that. This is in a system that requires hundreds of years to show effects to the full.
As it is we’re working in a system with limited long-term measurement and where the system is already changing. What is certain is that we are changing the climate, and quite drastically and with uncertain outcomes. The only thing you can be absolutely sure of, is that the effects are underestimated in the IPCC estimates. Effectively we are venus-forming (ie not terra-forming) the earth with no accurate idea of predicted outcomes.
Unlike what I can see of your level of scientific knowledge, I actually know something about earth sciences. It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes. That is the action of a mindless fool. I can just see you wanting to bring back DDT on the basis that a full causal link wasn’t proved between its use and the long term cumulative effects – we didn’t wait long enough to observe them. The same logic applies as for your pitiful attempts above to do the same thing. By your premise we shouldn’t do anything about birth control either. It isn’t absolutely certain that a child will result from sex
For instance we currently have no idea if things will get warmer overall or colder in different areas. It depends on ‘trigger’ effects in ocean currents like the Gulf stream with things like fresh water dilution. It is climate change – it probably will involve global warming in the short-term. It will probably involve local cooling, especially in places like northern europe that get a large proportion of their heat from ocean current transfers.
It is only the accidental comics of the climate deniers who look for simple and known solutions.. Why? I think it is probably because they are quite simple people. In my experience – too simple to adsorb the science even if you tell them in worlds of few syllables…
If you want to look at major effects (rather than minor (almost trivial) like the ones you mentioned (always favorites of the CC commedians)) , then have a look at the summary in the Economist about the ocean adsorption rates. Effectively the biggest CO2 adsorption system is filling rapidly. I’ll give you a hint – figure out how what volume of CO2 was required to move the pH of the volume of the oceans. The figure out how a rising pH starts to slow the adsorbtion rates.
Personally I suspect that the calculations are beyond you – prove me wrong.. But I suspect we’ll just get subjected to links to more pathetic attempts at people trying to talk about things they don’t understand.
Iprent “It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes”
You assume that I propose doing nothing. This assumption cannot validly be drawn from what I have said.
Rather than focusing on the problem of C02, I think there are a lot of smaller problems we should be focusing on that have clear determinable benefits. The sum result will be to deal with the carbon problem, if in fact it is a problem. Let me give you some examples:
1. Non-carbon based solutions to energy to mitigate the effect of peak oil.
2. Developing incentive schemes that prevent the burning down of world forests to preserve our environment and prevent extinction of species.
3. Reducing soot output. As I pointed out above, a recent NASA study shows this would have a much more immediate effect on climate, and also provide considerable health benefits.
The sort of initiatives mentioned above have immediate benefits for society apart from any carbon reduction and would be much easier to sell. I think most skeptics would agree with these type of initiatives on the basis of their immediate benefits, if nothing else. The sum effect would be a dramatic reduction in carbon output without having to resort to dubious schemes such as the Kyoto Protocol which has carbon reduction as its only goal.
I think a lot of the skepticism from people such as myself can be laid out the feet of
the wide-eyed hysteria and deception propounded by many AGW enthusiasts such as Hansen. I think a lot of this sort of stuff is going to lead to AGW fatigue amongst the world population, and the message of the skeptics will become more appealing as a result. This would truly be sad as the issue should be decided on the basis of science, and not a popularity contest. However, AGW proponents have turned this into a popularity contest through scientists mixing science with politics. Unfortunately, if this sort of strategy is relied on, then the wheels of popularity can turn in the other direction, pushing the direction of politics along with it.
Arggh – how about keeping to a single handle. It is always hard to keep track when people shift around.
Have a read of the economist article, or even better find the editorial that went with it. C02 generation is proving to not just be a atmospheric problem. In a lot of ways the acidification of the water systems is probably even more likely to cause run-away effects.
The problem is that at present much less than a third of the generated carbon has been getting into the atmosphere for the 20th. The problem looks like it has been winding up in the oceans from a variety of methods.
The problem is that is likely cause a widespread shift in a lot of largely unknown systems. For instance it causes de-calcification which releases CO2 from calcium carbonates. That is the kind of thing that is likely to cause run-away effects before shifting to a new equilibrium. None of that is currently factored in the IPCC because the measurements were just re-performed to compare to 1970’s data.
The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now. It is taking a immense risk to carry on as if the biosphere and geology can continue soaking up the current outputs without hitting trigger events.
Short-term pallatives are just dangerous bearing in mind the unknown risk levels from what we don’t know. This is one of the few areas that I whole-heartedly agree with teh greens.
Iprent “The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now.”
Well, I think measures such as eliminating fossil fuels as an energy source would achieve exactly that goal. So would finding ways for reducing deforrestation, thus increasing carbon sinks. However, these types of solutions also solve more tangible immediate problems. They are not merely “short-term palliatives” for the C02 issue. So, I think there are a lot of aspects we would agree on.
The problem with focussing on C02 as the problem is that it can lead to other fairly speculative solutions such as painting the world white.
This sort of solution simply churns up lots of resources with little other tangible benefit. To me, this seems much more risky, because, as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty in the chaotic climate system as you say. However, solutions that stand on their own feet, regardless of whether AGW forecasts are correct or not seem to be no-brainers, and should gain acceptance readilly.
You criticised me previously for not being a scientist. That is fair, as I do not have a degree in a climate-related field. For this reason, I describe myself as a climate agnostic, having reached no firm conclusion either way as I do not see myself as qualified to do so. From my reading I am aware of a lot of spurious stuff on both sides of the debate which tends to make me suspicious with extreme claims.
I mentioned Hansen, earlier. Here is an example of how his temperature adjustments reflect against Wellington’s temperature record:
This is typical of temperature adjustment techniques Hansen has used more generally where earlier temperatures are adjusted downwards, and later temperatures are adjusted upwards, producing an apparently artificial warming trend. Sorry, can’t find my link to the article right now.
This type of behaviour does not enhance credibility on either side. When reading articles on either side of the debate I prefer to see they are based on sound science and well researched.
Busy pushing code together at present, so I’ll respond later more fully.
But the real issue is that humans have been treating the biosphere as being effectively infinite for a long time, and that their environmental effects were relatively limited. You maybe could have argued that when the worlds population was less than 1 billion in the 19th century.
Generally we’re getting quite effective at handling local effects at a national level. The pollution goes up during developmental bursts and gets fixed by affluence. This is much the same as what happens with population and medical care.
We are still ratshit at handling problems are a global level. It doesn’t matter if it is finance companies rorting their way around varying legal frameworks, trade disputes of global pollution. In the latter case there is a really depressing track record over time – only the CFC’s stand out as being moderately acceptable.
We’re now approaching 7 billion and where most people on earth are using far more resources and excreting far more waste than they did prior to 1900. We’re probably going to touch 11 billion by 2050 (which there is a moderate probability that I’ll see – born in 1959 – I’d be 90’ish). It will probably remain at that level for a long time.
The effects of humanity are getting quite intense in the atmosphere and water systems which are both cross-borders. That will intensify as the population continues to rise and affluence levels spread.
To say that I don’t give a stuff about exact measurements or pallative techniques would be an understatement. If you look back at paleogeology, the effects of what we are doing to the biosphere are well known and well understood – it makes species at the top of the food chain extinct. The only thing we don’t know is what happens when we do it as fast as we are doing it now.
Bearing in mind the 20-30 year societal and infrastructure lead times for new technologies (and techniques) to spread. We need the alternates to old technologies being developed now. Rather than having rising states develop on a basis of coal liquidification (a 1940’s technology) for their transport needs and thereby intensifying the problems, we need better technologies going down the engineering path now.
The developed countries need to be involved in setting up the framework to develop those techs now because they are the societies with
a) the economic surpluses to do it.
b) the responsibility for causing the existing level of damage.
The should do it because if they don’t, then the rest of the world population will go affluent really fast using the existing technologies. That will directly impact on us because our societies are far more suseptible to disruption (essentially any more compex system is far more suscepible to chaotic environments than simplier ones).
Frankly the CCDs like those comedians in Act should really be forced to do some learning of economics. If they’d bother to look at the downstream effects of affluence and population on the biosphere they’re exploiting using their own economic philosphies, they’d be worth listening to. Instead what we get is wishful thinking based on the idea that it all going to be someones elses problem.
NOISE.. an interesting word which my desktop Collins posits derivation from Latin’s ‘nausea’. Added thereto several strains in respect of definition:
1. loud shouting, clamor;
2. sound ie the noise of rain;
3. any unwanted electrical signal within a communication system
Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.
Which is why you can now understand I felt impelled to ask you what you meant in your use of the term. In doing so, you will now realise, we have eliminated an uncertainty of communication.
That said, and taking account your perceptible need to ‘rely on science’ per the exchange/s with lprent I’d like to suggest that in the course of commentary to this particular blog you more than most have shifted very satisfactorily away from denialist’s strategem of deliberately NOISING in rumors rather than reports.
May this continue to be the case.
Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers? Think about it.
Northpaw: “Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers?”
As more of our energy is derived from non-oil sources, there will be more oil available for other ancillary purposes such as plastics etc. If this happens incrementally at a sufficient rate then oil should be available for ancillary purposes such as plastics etc for a long time. If the concern is greenhouse gases from burning oil, then it is preferable for oil to be locked up in forms such as plastics etc that does not enter the atmosphere.
thank you for the reply.. for the attempted answer in one part and limited response in another.. Now not to labor this(pun unintended) you wrote: Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise’. which to my eyes and mind states quite clearly that ‘margin of error’ is other than “noise” — not noise itself!
Use of ‘statistical noise’ in your original commentary might have helped somewhat though I’d hasten to add the term so used would make a nonsense of your two examples in relation to sea-level rise. Else revealed them for what they were—misleading at best and incomprehensible otherwise.
If I may allow me add that either you specify context in your use of terminology or not use another’s jargon at all without reference or linking to it.
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Students are striking against climate change on September 27. And this time, they're asking everyone to join them:Students are taking to the streets, beaches and parks on 27 September, and we're inviting everyone to join us. That's right, this is an intergenerational issue, and you're all invited to put pressure ...
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Source: Unknown, twitter user Recently, I wrote a (relatively) short paper titled as above, to explore what self-determination could like in a practical sense. Maybe I’m a bit of an international trade truther or something, but I absolutely believe trade is at the heart of achieving peace and self-determination. Since ...
In the 1960s, after I had graduated with a first-class Oxford postgraduate law degree, I joined the British Foreign Office as the top entrant of my year. There, I worked for a couple of years on European affairs and was eventually posted to the Embassy in Brussels. After this exposure ...
Alone, Alone. All, All Alone: Will it be a good or a bad thing, when humanity’s bright blue spacecraft is stricken by the civilisation-destroying problem of Climate Change, that no Huston Control will be standing-by to rescue the crew?“WE HAVE A PROBLEM, HUSTON.” These were the words used by the ...
I heard a 45 minute interview with Monica Lewinsky talking to TED’s Chris Anderson on BBC Radio 4 over the weekend, and have listened to it another two times out walking. I recommend it. Highly. Man, I am so impressed with how this woman has integrated her life experiences and ...
Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff, The Coddling of the American Mind: how good intentions and bad ideas are setting up a generation for failure, London, Penguin, 2019, 352pp; reviewed by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff’s book The Coddling of the American Mind is a timely book, whose ...
When the Justice Committee reported back on the Administration of Justice (Reform of Contempt of Court) Bill, free speech advocates breathed a sigh of relief. As originally introduced, the Bill reitered the ancient offence of "scandalising the court" - basicly, a special sedition law protecting judges from criticism. The select ...
Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. Since then - crickets. Which raises the obvious question: are they actually going to do this, ...
Back in March, the Ministry of Justice conducted a public consultation exercise on whether to hold a review of the Official Information Act. 285 people submitted on it. Now, Stuff has trawled through those submissions, and the case for reform is strong:The Justice Ministry asked Kiwis what they thought was ...
National's prisoner voting ban has gone down as one of the worst laws in New Zealand history. Passed after a farcical debate (including this farcial speech from ACT MP Hilary Calvert), it has subsequently been found to be inconsistent with the Bill of Rights Act by the High Court, Court ...
Divided Loyalties: Can the Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, be relied upon? That’s what the boys and girls at Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon needed to be reassured about. Because, from the perspective of Washington, it’s looking more and more like Jacinda Ardern and her Labour Party comrades are getting ready ...
This handy Queer Theory Glossary is from thetranswidow.com In case you’ve had trouble keeping up with the spate of new queer theory terms, here’s a handy glossary for your reference. Queer – A straight person with an interesting haircut. Non-binary/genderqueer – A chubby young female, typically 16-28, who has ...
by Daphna Whitmore US social psychologist and author Jonathan Haidt spoke on 1 August in Auckland to a crowd of around one thousand people. He is best known for his bookThe Coddling of the American Mind which examines the new climate of trigger warnings and acute sensitivity of Gen Z. ...
What an extraordinarily depressing experience it is to be compelled to watch, at 12,000 miles distance, the contortions and machinations of the British political class as they set about their determined attempt to overturn the decision taken by the British people that they wish to leave the European Union. The ...
The winter grazing issue is becoming a highly sensitised one that I hope will not become so politicised that it delays solutions and results in the suicides of some very stressed farmers.Winter grazing has hit the headlines after a determined campaign, including the release of a video of some very ...
by Don Franks Way back when British guitar virtuoso Joe Brown was a beginning session guy he got to back a visiting American artist. Young Joe was an able technician but had yet to learn some points of professionalism. Part way through “Five foot high and rising” Joe tired of ...
Since scientists started studying climate change, they have warned that it will reduce food production. And now, its happening:The climate crisis is damaging the ability of the land to sustain humanity, with cascading risks becoming increasingly severe as global temperatures rise, according to a landmark UN report compiled by some ...
The Abortion Legislation Bill just passed its first reading, 94-23. Its a far bigger margin than I expected, even allowing for the Winston factor, and it reflects the overwhelming support there is in this country for reform. but that support isn't a new thing - it has existed for literally ...
The Justice Committee has called for submissions on the Referendums Framework Bill. The Bill does what it says on the label - establishes a framework for referenda. Things you may want to address in your submission: Whether the bill should apply only at the 2020 election, or whether it should ...
The Thompson and Clark / MBIE spying scandal continues to result in fallout, this time in the form of a report on the implementation of MBIE's "Operation Exploration", its internal operation to enforce the infamous Anadarko Amendment which criminalised protests against the oil industry. MBIE's enforcement operation was tainted by ...
So, Winston Peters is defending his last-minute demand for a referendum on abortion by claiming he was "blindsided" by the bill. Really? The bill is a government bill. It has been working through the cabinet approval process since December last year. As part of that process, NZ First was consulted, ...
The Green Part has been accused of lack of transparency in two recent situations. The first was the claimed media lockdown during Green's annual conference and the second was Julie Ann Genter's refusal to release a letter she had sent to Phil Twyford.I do get frustrated when journalist's succumb to ...
The Green Part has been accused of lack of transparency in two recent situations. The first was the claimed media lockdown during Green's annual conference and the second was Julie Ann Genter's refusal to release a letter she had sent to Phil Twyford.I do get frustrated when journalist's succumb to ...
Opportunities to dodge tax are shrinking with the completion of a new tax agreement with Switzerland, Revenue Minister Stuart Nash announced today. Mr Nash and the Swiss Ambassador David Vogelsanger have today signed documents to update the double tax agreement (DTA). The previous DTA was signed in 1980. “Double tax ...
‘Original Sin’ of Land Confiscation at Ihumātao is a wrong that can be put right by Government says Justice & Peace Commission of Catholic Diocese of Auckland ...
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told a press conference on August 19 that her government is likely to impose new restrictions on prisoners’ rights to send letters. She said the law could be changed in “weeks.” ...
Heart-warming images of House Speaker Trevor Mallard cradling a baby in Parliament have been welcomed around New Zealand, but the Public Service Association warns most families can only dream of such support in the workplace. ...
Applying New Zealand’s international human rights commitments, particularly those in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, can help in resolving the situation at Ihumātao, Chief Human Rights Commissioner Paul Hunt says. ...
Climate campaigners impersonating bank staff have taken to the streets this week to expose ANZ Bank’s sponsorship of the fossil fuel industry. In the series of satirical actions in Wellington, Dunedin, and Auckland, the ‘bank staff’ promoted ...
Auckland Action Against Poverty joins the Children’s Commissioner , The Green Party , The New Zealand Drugs Foundation , Child Poverty Action Group and other organisations in the calls for an immediate end to the drug testing benefit sanctions. ...
Negotiations between Port Otago workers represented by the Rail and Maritime Transport Union (RMTU) and the Maritime Union of New Zealand (MUNZ) and management failed today and the unions have issued notice of an overtime ban from Saturday 7th September. ...
Queenstown Lakes District Council’s comments that it has applied for a consent to pollute waterways to avoid 'prosecutions by the Otago Regional Council' are unacceptable,’ Fish & Game New Zealand Chief Executive Martin Taylor says. ...
On March 15, the real world impact of online hate became abundantly, horrifically clear. As a shooter opened fire at two Christchurch mosques, the online image board 8chan anticipated, celebrated and amplified his killing spree. ...
Friday, 23 August: Government delegates from around the world, including New Zealand, are meeting in New York for the third of four meetings at the United Nations to agree a Global Oceans Treaty that could help to protect 30% of our oceans by 2030. Greenpeace ...
The excuses about a reportedly unwanted $57,000 payrise for Dunedin City Council CEO Sue Bidrose are laughable, says the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. ...
The Auckland Ratepayers’ Alliance has launched the “Ratepayer Protection Pledge” committing to no more than 2% annual rate hikes over the next Council term, and has written to all Mayoral and Council candidates asking them to sign. The pledge will ...
This Saturday, Pakuranga Hunt Day at the Ellerslie Racecourse will see anti-horse racing protesters demonstrating at the corner of Ascot Avenue and Greenlane East. ...
Mayoral candidate John Tamihere will meet with Pacific Island leaders and community elders today at Puhunui Reserve in South Auckland to commit to a Pasefika Cultural Centre. ...
Cruel and invalid Forced Swim Tests carried out at Victoria University of Wellington, will be exposed at the University Open Day today, so prospective students can be warned about the flawed and unethical research being conducted at the institute. ...
The organiser of the annual YWCA Equal Pay Awards has expressed her disappointment with the latest Gender Pay Gap figure for New Zealand workers. The figure rose slightly from 9.2% in 2018 to 9.3% for the quarter ended 30 June 2019. ...
The Council of Licenced Firearm Owners (COLFO) is urging firearms owners to pass on information to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Attack on Christchurch Mosques now that the period for submissions has been extended to 27 September. ...
An application was filed in the Employment Relations Authority in Wellington today, seeking an injunction to prevent the Board of the New Zealand Nurses Organisation from removing the President from office. ...
The Government’s commitment to support literacy and numeracy training in the workplace is a strong signal from Government on recognising the importance of upskilling, reskilling and increasing productivity alongside their commitment to address the challenges ...
“The infrastructure sector sees a major role for the New Zealand Infrastructure Commission/Te Waihanga in lifting the nation’s sagging infrastructure performance,” says Paul Blair, incoming CEO of Infrastructure NZ. ...
The AA is calling on the Government to bring forward critical highway projects while time is spent properly developing the plans for a rapid transit system in Auckland. ...
Between 2015/16 and 2017/18, DHBs spent $280 million treating patients due to adverse drug reactions, reveals the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union in its latest briefing paper on health productivity . ...
The Pay Equity Coalition Auckland (PECA) is pleased the gender pay gap has decreased slightly. Statistics released today show the gap is now 11.9%, nearly 2 percent less than last year. ...
The Council of Licenced Firearm Owners (COLFO) is urging firearms owners to make sure they pass on any information they have to the Royal Commission of Inquiry into the Attack on Christchurch Mosques before submissions close tomorrow (Friday). ...
The big electricity companies consider solar energy “disruptive” and want pricing to suppress it. In contrast, advocates of local energy say that solar, energy efficiency, and other local energy solutions are the cheapest ways to reduce carbon emissions. ...
The Earthquake Commission and Shine Lawyers are delighted to announce that EQC has reached an agreement with the Gibling family, agreeing to cover the cost of repairs of remaining earthquake damage on their property. ...
Four months into the inquiry, the Royal Commission is gathering significant information and continues to receive valuable submissions from the public, from current and former State servants, experts and community groups. ...
While Fish & Game New Zealand is pleased to see Federated Farmers Environment Spokesperson Chris Allen say that 'we all want good, fresh water', he conveniently overlooks some key facts. ...
What: Wellington demo “Save the Amazon Forest/Salve a Amazônia!” When: Friday, 6 September 2019 from 12:30-13:30 Where: Embassy of Brazil in Wellingtona ...
Rt Hon Trevor Mallard, Speaker of the New Zealand House of Representatives, welcomes the visit of His Excellency Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, President of the Assembly of the Republic of Portugal. ...
A cross political Mental Health and Addictions Wellbeing group will be launched on Wednesday 28 August hosted by Sir John Kirwan and Moe Milne (ONZM) who have both been at the forefront of our country’s often difficult conversations about mental ...
Confirmation that the government will be progressing an independent Parliamentary Budget Office is great news for democracy and transparency, Federated Farmers says. ...
At first glance, Simon Bridges’ strident opposition to the government’s proposal to establish an independent office to cost political parties’ election spending plans looks childish and petty. ...
Euthanasia-Free NZ is appalled that Parliament spent so little time debating Part 2 of the End of Life Choice Bill and voted to leave it full of holes. ...
Jordan Williams, a spokesman for the Auckland Ratepayers’ Alliance and its nationwide sister group the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is slamming Auckland Mayor Phil Goff for his comments today that John Tamihere would need the Government’s support to ...
A ‘one size fits all’, inflexible and punitive regulatory regime for water quality just gets backs - and costs - up and most importantly will not work, Federated Farmers says. ...
Mediation yesterday between secondary principals and the government has resulted in a deal that the principals' negotiating team is recommending to its members. ...
Clubs New Zealand welcomes the decision of Justice Minister Andrew Little to put forward a bill amending the Sale and Supply of Alcohol Act to allow all licensed premises to remain open for Rugby World Cup matches. ...
The Australia and New Zealand Ministerial Forum on Food Regulation has ordered a review looking at labelling of added sugars in food and drinks. An option under investigation is ‘a pictorial approach applied to sugary beverages / sugar-sweetened beverages’ ...
Labour market data released by Statistics New Zealand today indicates that a gender pay gap persists in New Zealand, despite improvement in some areas. ...
In the midst of the 6th Great Extinction Event the coalition, STOP Trashing Our Planet is urging voters to take full responsibility for the legacy we are leaving our children. ...
LGNZ will carefully consider the proposed National Policy Statement on Urban Development (NPS-UD) to assess if it meets the Government’s aim of enabling urban development or simply adds more red tape to the planning process. ...
Statistics out today from the Government show that the gender wage imbalance, or gap, in the average wage is 11.9%, a strong 2 percentage point improvement from 13.9% last year. The gender pay imbalance in the median wage is 9.3%. ...
Newstalk ZB Drive host and Herald on Sunday columnist Heather du Plessis-Allan is taking on the challenge of keeping 2019 Auckland Mayoral contenders Phil Goff and John Tamihere in line and on point in tonight’s live NZ Herald Newstalk ZB debate. ...
By Michael Andrew The Indonesian media is contributing to resentment and racism toward Papuans, according to a human rights researcher and former journalist. Andreas Harsono of Human Rights Watch Jakarta told Pacific Media Watch many Indonesian journalists either view Papuans as enemy “separatists” or deviants and their reporting tends to convey these ...
Analysis - The prime minister puts a stake in the ground over petrol prices, National balks at having its election promises costed and the government puts millions into helping the homeless. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danilo Ignacio de Urzedo, PhD candidate, University of Sydney Record fires are raging in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, with more than 2,500 fires currently burning. They are collectively emitting huge amounts of carbon, with smoke plumes visible thousands of kilometres away. Fires in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sean Docking, Post-doctoral researcher, La Trobe University Basketball fans around the world were recently sickened by the footage of NBA star Kevin Durant’s Achilles tendon rupturing during a game. But while many think it’s only elite athletes who suffer from Achilles tendon ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University The possibility of blackouts affecting half of Victoria has attracted plenty of attention to a document once read only by industry insiders and policy wonks: the Electricity Statement of Opportunities. The Statement, updated ...
George Clooney sold his tequila company for a billion dollars – but is the stuff any good? The Spinoff finds out. Imagine being so stupidly sexy you sneeze and sell a billion-dollar booze company. That’s what George Clooney did last year, flicking off the tequila business he started accidentally with an ...
The departure of "two Pākehā men" from the government's justice reform group will not hurt the quality of its final report, another member of the team says. ...
Combatting internet-related harm is being stymied by inter-industry disagreement and a lack of information about the extent and nature of the problem, a new report says. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, J.W. Nevile Fellow in Economics and host of The Airport Economist, UNSW Amid the tributes to former deputy prime minister Tim Fischer and the stories of his authenticity, courage and quirky interests – like trains and military history – what ...
Current leader of the National Party, Simon Bridges.Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Is Simon Bridges really trying to channel Donald Trump? Or is he taking his cue from Scott Morrison? Or is he looking to emulate Boris Johnson? Whatever the inspiration, there’s been a clear change in the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra [embedded content]Michelle Grattan talks about the sad news of the passing of former Deputy Prime Minister Tim Fischer with University of Canberra Vice-Chancellor Professor Deep Saini. They also discuss Scott Morrison’s recent announcement about joining ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gabriel Crowley, Adjunct Principal Research Fellow, James Cook University In February, about 600,000 cattle were killed by catastrophic flooding across north Queensland’s Carpentaria Gulf plains. The flood waters rose suddenly, forming a wall of water up to 70km wide. Record depths were ...
Simon Day dined alone at Monique Fiso’s Wellington restaurant Hiakai, and discovered it was the perfect way to appreciate the meaning of this special food. “Would you like a few more minutes with your phone?” the waitress at Hiakai asked sympathetically as I mashed a final goodbye text to my wife ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Willamson, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Monash University Australia’s gender pay gap is diminishing, says a new report, but some contributors to it seem harder to overcome than others. For me, the finding hit close to home. The report, by KPMG for ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Te Tiriti o Waitangi: The Treaty of Waitangi by Toby Morris with Ross Calman, Mark Derby, and ...
Honey producer Comvita has confirmed a full year net loss of $27.7m with China market access restrictions and tougher regulations locally affecting the company's sales. ...
James Elliott realises John Tamihere's uncosted bridge proposal wasn't actually a metaphor, but a fine example of 'folks is mighty generous with money what they ain’t got'. ...
A new poem by Oamaru-born poet Nick Ascroft.SupermanHalfway up the ascent zigzagging from Royal Terrace to upper Stuart Street carrying four too-heavy grocery bags I begin to understand that I will not make it. My huffing personage – from the fingers, white with the strain, to a face the colour of rhubarb – will ooze into the pavement and roll slowly ...
The Real Pod assembles to dissect the week in reality television and real life, with special thanks to Nando’s.Sound the alarm, because it’s time for another absolute chaos pod. We’re talking haunted dolls in Waipu, we’re talking giant hands taking over Wellington, we’re talking soft serve cones dipped in powdered Milo. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tony Press, Adjunct Professor, Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania This week, the ABC revealed that the Australian Defence Force wants to roll out military technology in Antarctica. The article raises the issue of what is, or is not, ...
New Zealand teacher aides say their pay reflects an outdated idea of what they do. Elizabeth McLeod hears from four TAs, and one parent, about the classroom realities they face every dayCleaning up poo, defusing violent situations, copping physical and verbal abuse: these are the realities of a teacher aide’s ...
The lanky sidekick from Jono and Ben journeys around New Zealand trying to solve small town problems. Does he succeed?Guy Williams, hardly a shy, retiring type, has been screaming out for his own vehicle for years. A loud, lanky, fearless comic, he’s spent nearly a decade in MediaWorks purgatory, sat ...
Ballot Box.Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – The nature of New Zealand general election campaigns could be significantly changed with the proposed establishment of an “umpire” to adjudicate over political party manifesto policies. A suggestion has been put forward by the Government for the establishment of a parliamentary watchdog ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage.New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.Today’s content by Dr Bryce Edwards.Ihumātao Delphine Herbert and Dan Satherley (Newshub): Tainui to buy Ihumātao land – sources Danielle ...
Extinction Rebellion takes a tour of downtown Wellington to point out the coal industry stalwarts and ask why they’re still there in the face of a climate emergency. “There are coal companies in Wellington??”That’s the incredulous response every single time we mention taking the public on a tour of the biggest ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel A. Ankeny, Professor of History and Philosophy, and Deputy Dean Research (Faculty of Arts), University of Adelaide The South Australian government recently announced its intention to lift the long-standing statewide moratorium on genetically modified (GM) crops, following a statutory six-week consultation ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vicki Sentas, Senior Lecturer, UNSW Law, UNSW Being strip searched by the police can be intrusive, humiliating and harmful. Typically, strip searches involve being required to strip naked in front of police officers, who often give the direction to “squat and cough”, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Louise Remond, Clinical Psychologist, University of Technology Sydney Hi, I was just wondering if something’s wrong with me because I’m never happy and never want to do anything and I’m getting really lazy and I really hate school. Thanks – Anonymous ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luke Zaphir, Researcher for the University of Queensland Critical Thinking Project; and Online Teacher at Education Queensland’s IMPACT Centre, The University of Queensland From as early as Grade 3 teachers start teaching children how to put across their own points of view. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Holden, Professor of Economics, UNSW It’s four years since then Prime Minister Tony Abbott warned Australia had been heading to “a Greek-style economic future”. He was referring to what he said had been happening under the previous Labor government. When Labor ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samia Khatun, Senior Lecturer, SOAS, University of London Some 1,000 kilometres inland from Sydney, over the Blue Mountains, past the trees that drink the tributaries of the Darling River, there stands a little, red mosque. It marks where the desert begins. The ...
Online gambling is growing fast in New Zealand, but critics say new government ideas for regulating websites focus on what's good for the industry, rather than protecting people from harm. ...
An "extreme pro-Beijing" writer has caused controversy in the Chinese community and awkwardness for the Labour Party by standing for political office in Auckland. ...
Good morning, and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: Concern about slow progress for major transport projects, smoking researcher under pressure over funding, and hikoi marches from Ihumātao to Ardern’s office.NZTA is struggling to get spending out the door, so the money isn’t flowing through the economy, reports Thomas Coughlan ...
Speaker of the House Trevor Mallard will look at whether people making submissions on proposed law changes should be forced to disclose conflicts of interest. ...
Rugby and league legend Honey Hireme has put all her careers on hold - including her Warriors debut - to take care of her mum, who has terminal cancer. ...
Climate change laffs 
Speaker Trevor Mallard was left to look after Jones, while his usual caretaker, Winston Peters, underwent surgery. A truly adorable scene from Parliament yesterday has gone viral, after Speaker Trevor Mallard cradled an extremely drunk Shane Jones in his arms while the House was in session. Loud “awwww”s could be ...10 hours ago
Western media have defended their decision not to cover the fires so as not to give them any oxygen. Social media outrage continues to grow around the sentiment that mainstream western media is devoting too little coverage to an ongoing series of fires in the Amazon rainforest, and in doing ...11 hours ago
A Long Time Ago, In A Parallel Universe Far, Far Away: The political journalist scratched his head in confusion. Only then did he notice the name of the building: ‘The Jacinda Ardern Presidential Library and Public Resource Centre’. Making his way inside to the information desk, he asked the librarian ...16 hours ago
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Nothing from me tody - I'm off to Christchurch to pretend to be other people for a weekend. Normal bloggage should resume on Tuesday. ...18 hours ago
Spark is bracing for a customer backlash as rugby fans all across the country struggle to get a picture on their wireless router. With the Rugby World Cup fast approaching, an elderly Taranaki couple are furious after being told that they still won’t be able to watch the tournament, even ...1 day ago
Several explosions have been reported across Auckland, as well-meaning environmentalists have already begun purchasing too much petrol Starting from next week, customers will no longer need a car to purchase petrol directly from the pump, a development that two major fuel providers are billing as an opportunity to help fight ...1 day ago
A new study claims to find that a mother’s exposure to fluoridated water during pregnancy may decrease the IQ of male children – but is it correct? (Photo: Getty Images) Anti-fluoride campaigners are promoting ... 1 day ago
Television advertising has a huge impact on our lives. Even if we don’t recognise that, we know it has to be true, since otherwise why would advertisers spend so much on it? Its significance, however, is greater than simply the influence it has on what we purchase and consume. It ...3 days ago
by Jan Rivers More than 30 years ago a Commission of Inquiry was held in New Zealand to investigate, amongst other things, whether women with cervical cancer were aware that they had been part of a research project and whether they were properly informed of the treatment options ...4 days ago
Everyone Wants To Be Fuhrer: When fascist groups are discussed, the image conjured-up in the minds of most New Zealanders is one of pathetic misfits. This negative impression is reinforced by the latter’s idiotic embrace of the swastika. Even in the second decade of the twenty-first century, the baleful legacy ...4 days ago
In the previous two posts, I laid out the context and set the theoretical framework to answer a question: whether indigenous economies should take the LEAP. This final part outlines ways to conceive of practicing mana motuhake within the existing legal system by carving out special jurisdictions that enable Indigenous ...6 days ago
Fully Informed? Labour’s 2017 promises raised expectations that were little short of revolutionary. Unfortunately, they were never adequately shaken through the fiscal sieve. The hard economic work was not done – and it shows. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s critics have long complained that her grasp of the way the New ...6 days ago
You cannot expect to pound communities into the ground day after day, year after year, decade after decade and just expect them to take it lying down. There’s a point at which the place will explode. And we’re faced with some very big ructions on both sides of the Atlantic ...1 week ago
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Going Down? Once truth and propaganda become fused in the minds of one’s followers, debate and discussion become redundant. If one’s opponents are all outrageous liars, then engaging with them in any way is pointless. Rather than waste its time, a political party should, instead, target all its messages at ...1 week ago
We need to fundamentally reframe our systems settings to address the drivers causing and underpinning inequality; structural change in systems especially financial. The Equality Network Hui was held in Wellington on 27 June 2019. The hui covered important topics such as child poverty; a living wage; taxation; public health; mental ...1 week ago
The views-per-page for some of my recent postings:Depressing, isn't it? Provide thoughtful and wise commentary on the mainstream of British politics and no-one notices. Make a passing reference to Tommy DICKHEAD Robinson in a thread title and you get hundreds of views. Write something about anti-Semitism and you get another ...1 week ago
The government has announced plans to move the Treaty of Waitangi and other taonga to a new site. Great news! So where are they going? Right next to the old one:The new plan will see a new 22,000-square-metre archive built on the former site of Defence House - the former ...1 week ago
Back in June, StatsNZ went public about a project to track population data on an hourly level by using people's cellphones. It wasn't as bad as it initially looked - they were receiving no individual data, only counts by suburb - but there was still a huge consent problem, so ...1 week ago
I did an interview on the TVNZ Breakfast Show about the situation in Hong Kong. I tried to frame the issue as a collective action problem between two sides with very different end games. The video is here. Because of time constraints we could not discuss the fact that the ...1 week ago
Image Credit: Wild Rose College A new study reporting the ranges of values for kidney and liver parameters in a healthy population is being actively misrepresented by anti-fluoride campaigners. The Fluoride Action Network’s (FAN) latest ... 1 week ago
Alone, Alone. All, All Alone: Will it be a good or a bad thing, when humanity’s bright blue spacecraft is stricken by the civilisation-destroying problem of Climate Change, that no Huston Control will be standing-by to rescue the crew?“WE HAVE A PROBLEM, HUSTON.” These were the words used by the ...2 weeks ago
Divided Loyalties: Can the Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, be relied upon? That’s what the boys and girls at Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon needed to be reassured about. Because, from the perspective of Washington, it’s looking more and more like Jacinda Ardern and her Labour Party comrades are getting ready ...2 weeks ago
This handy Queer Theory Glossary is from thetranswidow.com In case you’ve had trouble keeping up with the spate of new queer theory terms, here’s a handy glossary for your reference. Queer – A straight person with an interesting haircut. Non-binary/genderqueer – A chubby young female, typically 16-28, who has ...2 weeks ago
The winter grazing issue is becoming a highly sensitised one that I hope will not become so politicised that it delays solutions and results in the suicides of some very stressed farmers.Winter grazing has hit the headlines after a determined campaign, including the release of a video of some very ...2 weeks ago
The Green Part has been accused of lack of transparency in two recent situations. The first was the claimed media lockdown during Green's annual conference and the second was Julie Ann Genter's refusal to release a letter she had sent to Phil Twyford.I do get frustrated when journalist's succumb to ...2 weeks ago
Opportunities to dodge tax are shrinking with the completion of a new tax agreement with Switzerland, Revenue Minister Stuart Nash announced today. Mr Nash and the Swiss Ambassador David Vogelsanger have today signed documents to update the double tax agreement (DTA). The previous DTA was signed in 1980. “Double tax ...2 weeks ago
‘Original Sin’ of Land Confiscation at Ihumātao is a wrong that can be put right by Government says Justice & Peace Commission of Catholic Diocese of Auckland ...9 hours ago
By Michael Andrew The Indonesian media is contributing to resentment and racism toward Papuans, according to a human rights researcher and former journalist. Andreas Harsono of Human Rights Watch Jakarta told Pacific Media Watch many Indonesian journalists either view Papuans as enemy “separatists” or deviants and their reporting tends to convey these ...4 hours ago
Analysis - The prime minister puts a stake in the ground over petrol prices, National balks at having its election promises costed and the government puts millions into helping the homeless. ...8 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danilo Ignacio de Urzedo, PhD candidate, University of Sydney Record fires are raging in Brazil’s Amazon rainforest, with more than 2,500 fires currently burning. They are collectively emitting huge amounts of carbon, with smoke plumes visible thousands of kilometres away. Fires in ...9 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sean Docking, Post-doctoral researcher, La Trobe University Basketball fans around the world were recently sickened by the footage of NBA star Kevin Durant’s Achilles tendon rupturing during a game. But while many think it’s only elite athletes who suffer from Achilles tendon ...9 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bruce Mountain, Director, Victoria Energy Policy Centre, Victoria University The possibility of blackouts affecting half of Victoria has attracted plenty of attention to a document once read only by industry insiders and policy wonks: the Electricity Statement of Opportunities. The Statement, updated ...10 hours ago
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I see that the big problem appears to be soot not C02 according to this NASA study:
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/soot-reduction-could-help-to-stop-global-warming-1224481.html
It appears that we get much more bang for our buck with respect to AGW (if true) by cleaning up the soot rather than the C02. Plus there are health side-benefits as well. What environmentally concious person could possibly argue with cleaning up the dirty smoke? This seems much more practical and cost effective than emmission trading schemes and the like.
Maybe the hysteria about C02 is being misdirected.
There is no ‘hysteria’ about CO2, it is a scientific fact that it traps heat and it is also a fact we are pumping billions of tonnes of the stuff into the atomsphere.
Soot, which is mainly carbon (note, not carbon dioxide) also has a greenhouse effect. Of course we should reduce it as possible.
interestingly, back in the 50s when cars and industry burnt fossil fuels a lot less efficently they put a lot of sulfur dioxide and other smog particles into the air that actually has a cooling effect. It was because of this that the Earth’s temperature didn’t rise in the middle of the last century as was expected by the sceintists due to the increasing CO2 output. As we’ve become cleaner that cooling effect has reduced and global temperuate increase has taken off.
also interestingly. Soylent Green, the movie made in 1973 and set in 2022 has the temperature hotter than now due to the greenhouse effect.
Don’t forget the CFC effect as well SP.
HS: CFCs are responsible for about 12% of AGW. There’s not much more that can be done now – they are heavily regulated (under the Montreal Protocol) and atmospheric concentrations are falling. Because they are such stable molecules we’ll have to wait for a long while (decades, even centuries for some kinds of CFC) for them to all break down.
Steve, even if we doubled the amount of C02 in the atmosphere, the effect would be neglible if C02 was the sole cause. However, it is well recognised that AGW is based more around the secondary effects of increased water vapour that is thought to occur due to the small temperature increase caused by C02. However, it is not well understood what the balance is between positive and negative forcings that determine climate sensitivity. This is clear when we compare the worst-case scenario from the IPCC of around 59 cm increase with the predictions of Huber of up to 100 metres increase in sea level:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10551751
It seems clear that there is far to much noise in the models to draw any firm conclusions. Also, it is accepted that endevours such as the Kyoto protocol are going to have negligible effect on AGW (if true) in any case. On the other hand, reducing soot is going to have an immediate and substantial effect according to the NASA report I cited. Since we are in a zero-sum game so far as our financial resources are concerned, it seems a no-brainer to direct our energy into something that is going to have a substantial effect (if AGW is correct) and have a positive effect on the environment generally compared to a dubious strategy such as Kyoto.
tsmithfield:
The Herald article is interesting. The paleoclimatologists reckon that the world could warm up a lot more than IPCC model’s would have us believe, which is certainly a worry.
Their archeological evidence is pretty telling. But there is a big difference between the Eocene greenhouse and the modern one. The greenhouse in the Eocene was supposedly cranked up by the result of a sudden release of methane clathrates. When this happens, the amount of methane released can be enormous, and it’s autocatalytic because it causes more global warming which tends to melt more clathrates.
But our greenhouse is not so methane-driven. I am pretty sure that most anthropogenic emissions are C02 (though methane and CFCs are significant). Maybe in the Eocene there was some specifically methane-related that led to the greater warming? Something to do with cloud formation perhaps … it could be very hard to know.
In any case, I don’t see why the possibility of cheap reductions in black carbon emissions should absolve us of the need to make (more expensive) reductions in C02 and methane as well?
tsmithfield:
Let me just stop you there.
A “zero-sum game”? Are you serious?
Con: The question is what caused a state change and released those methane clathrates. Once it starts, it is likely to be a runaway.
It’d have to either be a increase in temperature or a decrease in pressure or maybe (remote possibility) a change in chemical conditions.
Look – we’re doing the temperature change right now with our releases of greenhouse gases. We’re also managing to warm the oceans, and warmer water is less dense – ie less pressure maybe. Oh and the chemical composition of the oceans is changing.
Perhaps all of those things happened in the Eocene and other periods – from vulcanism is most likely. But if anything triggers a state change in the MC’s then we will really start to see a change. Guess what we’re on a path to do just that.
BTW: The IPCC estimates are the most conservative options from the most established evidence. Most people with some understanding of earth sciences (like me) or climatology consider that they give the best possible option. To date their estimates keep getting worse on each iteration and as the evidence mounts.
Echoing what Lynn says above – the IPCC is essentially hobbled by the requirement to appear “rational and restrained”. There are numerous scientists who are members of the panel on record stating that their actual views are not represented accurately, as the “agreed statement” was watered down to a far less dramatic version of reality to avoid sowing the seeds of hysteria or (more likely) threatening IPCC credibility and allowing opponents to brand them as loonies. It is incredible the damage an oil industry exec can do just by appearing on TV and saying “100m? pfft. You’d have to be an idiot to believe that”.
You’ll note that their predictions have been becoming steadily worse and more forcefully phrased. Expect that trend to continue.
People like to believe the safe option much more than they like to sit down with a calculator and work out how much water is in the antarctic icecap.
Steve P.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century. I think like the CO2 hysteria being drummed up for political purposes you just made that little bit of BS up to support your assertion that CO2 is the big scary heat up the planet monster you want it to be.
Antarctic ice cap?
But that’s at the bottom of the planet. As it melts it’ll drip down, not up.
You just made that “Antarctic ice monster” up to scare people for political purposes. I saw on youtube that scientists make up stuff too.
ha ha helix. maybe another option is to simply relax and enjoy …
ya?
noh?
seriously.
Can you provide a link for this ? That is a link to show that scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.
Here’s the context of what steve said …
(emphasis mine)
Look at what the ‘this’ burt wants a link for refers to. Go on. I’ll wait.
Got it?
Yet he paraphrased it as ” scientists were concerned about CO2 levels from cars in the middle of last century.”
dishonest, stupid or both?
the debate continues…
How many years must the cooling continue before we admit we were wrong about global warming?
No statistically significant rise in average temperatures since 1995, and a cooling trend since 2002.
In this period human caused co2 output has increased 30%+, so clearly there is something with a larger effect going on or we have hit a stable state.
SBlount
Some interesting reading here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/River_Thames_frost_fairs
So what happened in the late 1600’s ? There is an interesting graph in this article that might provide some answers.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/06mar_solarminimum.htm
And if you look at the temperature graphs here there is some interesting correlations that only the most gullible could believe are coincidence.
Still it’s not trendy to “not be in control” and the human ego is so big that naturally if there is anything changing on earth we must be responsible. If the cause of the change is outside of our control (or even influence) then we don’t get to take the place as being the most important thing on earth when it comes to climate.
burt,
Agreed, you cannot control a non-linear, complex system. You must observe carefully and humbly manage outcomes as all inputs will have unintended consequences.
Nobody knows the future except that there will be change, nature will always adjust, but humanity is less flexible and mobile.
We are approaching the historical maximum interglacial temperature, and temperatures could still go up, or they could go down. We don’t know if solar activity will drive this, or what kind of things might happen at increased co2 levels (as all global warming has eventually become global cooling and vice versa)
How many years must the cooling continue before we admit we were wrong about global warming?
About 30 would be the generally accepted answer.
No statistically significant rise in average temperatures since 1995, and a cooling trend since 2002.
Provide a link and I will demolish it. Warning I work with time trends all day every day.
About 30 would be the generally accepted answer.
There was 30 years of cooling between 1940-1970 during a period of sharply increasing co2 concentration.
Provide a link and I will demolish it. Warning I work with time trends all day every day.
I heard it in a debate from Prof Bob M. Carter at the 33rd International Geological Conference.
Very cute. Bob Carter. Autodemolished.
I did ask for a link, but I found one for you here in this article by Bob Carter.
The salient facts are these. First, the accepted global average temperature statistics used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change show that no ground-based warming has occurred since 1998. Oddly, this eight-year-long temperature stasis has occurred despite an increase over the same period of 15 parts per million (or 4 per cent) in atmospheric CO2.
8 years is too short a period compared with the noise and variation in the data. If for example I stated that for the last 30 minutes the temperature in my room here in Wellington was a very stable 23 degC, and therefore there was no such thing as winter… you would conclude I was a total doofus.
A more complete review is here.
RedLogiox
In mid January (in NZ) any conclusion that there is no winter would make you a doofus.
However have I got this correct, we needed the ETS rushed through under urgency because we needed to act really really quickly on climate change yet 8 years is too short a time frame to make valid observations about climate data.
Three or four months of cross party consultation would take too long but 30 years is a valid observation period – it’s not about science is it !
There is an element of “Pascal’s wager” to it.
If only Pascal’s Bookie were here…
Is it me, or does the polar bear look like hes laughing???
Ha, he does!
Somehow I doubt that the guy is laughing though.
tsmithfield,
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
Northpaw “tsmithfield,
congratulations—once again you have me somewhat curious at assertions made.. This time would you please be so kind as to explain what you mean in the use of the following (emphasised) term:
It seems clear that there is far to(sic) much noise in the models”
By noise I mean margins of error due to uncertainties in the data. Given that predictions range from centimetres of sea level rise to one hundred metres of sea level rise, then it seems that the noise must be quite high.
One source for noise is the heat-island effects associated with growing cities. While statistical corrections are made for these effects, it remains questionable whether the corrections are adequate. Also, rural stations have been dropped out over recent years meaning that part of the observed rise has at least in part been an artifact of the distribution of stations rather than necessarily real increases in temperature.
Here is are several links which show an exchange between a AGW skeptic and believer on the topic that arose from a media interview.
http://www.businessandmedia.org/printer/2009/20090114065138.aspx
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2009/01/cnn-is-spun-right-round-baby-right-round/
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/URBANIZATION_IN_THE_TEMPERATURE_DATA_BASES.pdf
Another source of uncertainty is the sensitivity of the system to increases in C02. This depends on the balance between positive and negative forcings in clouds which is still not well understood. Here is a peer reviewed article on the subject.
http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-pdf&file=i1520-0442-21-21-5624.pdf&ct=1
tsmithfield. The whole system is uncertain – it is inherently complex and chaotic. That is the nature of natural systems. If we had a few hundred years of good observations under a reasonably steady state system we might be able to have a nice predictive model. As it is we have less than a 30 years of good data, less than hundred years of reasonable data, and completely patchy data prior to that. This is in a system that requires hundreds of years to show effects to the full.
As it is we’re working in a system with limited long-term measurement and where the system is already changing. What is certain is that we are changing the climate, and quite drastically and with uncertain outcomes. The only thing you can be absolutely sure of, is that the effects are underestimated in the IPCC estimates. Effectively we are venus-forming (ie not terra-forming) the earth with no accurate idea of predicted outcomes.
Unlike what I can see of your level of scientific knowledge, I actually know something about earth sciences. It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes. That is the action of a mindless fool. I can just see you wanting to bring back DDT on the basis that a full causal link wasn’t proved between its use and the long term cumulative effects – we didn’t wait long enough to observe them. The same logic applies as for your pitiful attempts above to do the same thing. By your premise we shouldn’t do anything about birth control either. It isn’t absolutely certain that a child will result from sex
For instance we currently have no idea if things will get warmer overall or colder in different areas. It depends on ‘trigger’ effects in ocean currents like the Gulf stream with things like fresh water dilution. It is climate change – it probably will involve global warming in the short-term. It will probably involve local cooling, especially in places like northern europe that get a large proportion of their heat from ocean current transfers.
It is only the accidental comics of the climate deniers who look for simple and known solutions.. Why? I think it is probably because they are quite simple people. In my experience – too simple to adsorb the science even if you tell them in worlds of few syllables…
If you want to look at major effects (rather than minor (almost trivial) like the ones you mentioned (always favorites of the CC commedians)) , then have a look at the summary in the Economist about the ocean adsorption rates. Effectively the biggest CO2 adsorption system is filling rapidly. I’ll give you a hint – figure out how what volume of CO2 was required to move the pH of the volume of the oceans. The figure out how a rising pH starts to slow the adsorbtion rates.
Personally I suspect that the calculations are beyond you – prove me wrong.. But I suspect we’ll just get subjected to links to more pathetic attempts at people trying to talk about things they don’t understand.
Iprent “It terrifies me that people like you would be so foolish as to crap in their nest and to want to carry on because they can’t predict the exact outcomes”
You assume that I propose doing nothing. This assumption cannot validly be drawn from what I have said.
Rather than focusing on the problem of C02, I think there are a lot of smaller problems we should be focusing on that have clear determinable benefits. The sum result will be to deal with the carbon problem, if in fact it is a problem. Let me give you some examples:
1. Non-carbon based solutions to energy to mitigate the effect of peak oil.
2. Developing incentive schemes that prevent the burning down of world forests to preserve our environment and prevent extinction of species.
3. Reducing soot output. As I pointed out above, a recent NASA study shows this would have a much more immediate effect on climate, and also provide considerable health benefits.
The sort of initiatives mentioned above have immediate benefits for society apart from any carbon reduction and would be much easier to sell. I think most skeptics would agree with these type of initiatives on the basis of their immediate benefits, if nothing else. The sum effect would be a dramatic reduction in carbon output without having to resort to dubious schemes such as the Kyoto Protocol which has carbon reduction as its only goal.
I think a lot of the skepticism from people such as myself can be laid out the feet of
the wide-eyed hysteria and deception propounded by many AGW enthusiasts such as Hansen. I think a lot of this sort of stuff is going to lead to AGW fatigue amongst the world population, and the message of the skeptics will become more appealing as a result. This would truly be sad as the issue should be decided on the basis of science, and not a popularity contest. However, AGW proponents have turned this into a popularity contest through scientists mixing science with politics. Unfortunately, if this sort of strategy is relied on, then the wheels of popularity can turn in the other direction, pushing the direction of politics along with it.
Arggh – how about keeping to a single handle. It is always hard to keep track when people shift around.
Have a read of the economist article, or even better find the editorial that went with it. C02 generation is proving to not just be a atmospheric problem. In a lot of ways the acidification of the water systems is probably even more likely to cause run-away effects.
The problem is that at present much less than a third of the generated carbon has been getting into the atmosphere for the 20th. The problem looks like it has been winding up in the oceans from a variety of methods.
The problem is that is likely cause a widespread shift in a lot of largely unknown systems. For instance it causes de-calcification which releases CO2 from calcium carbonates. That is the kind of thing that is likely to cause run-away effects before shifting to a new equilibrium. None of that is currently factored in the IPCC because the measurements were just re-performed to compare to 1970’s data.
The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now. It is taking a immense risk to carry on as if the biosphere and geology can continue soaking up the current outputs without hitting trigger events.
Short-term pallatives are just dangerous bearing in mind the unknown risk levels from what we don’t know. This is one of the few areas that I whole-heartedly agree with teh greens.
Iprent “The simpliest solution is to immediately reduce the emmissions because we simply don’t know the effects of what we are doing now.”
Well, I think measures such as eliminating fossil fuels as an energy source would achieve exactly that goal. So would finding ways for reducing deforrestation, thus increasing carbon sinks. However, these types of solutions also solve more tangible immediate problems. They are not merely “short-term palliatives” for the C02 issue. So, I think there are a lot of aspects we would agree on.
The problem with focussing on C02 as the problem is that it can lead to other fairly speculative solutions such as painting the world white.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/jan/16/white-paint-carbon-emissions-climate
This sort of solution simply churns up lots of resources with little other tangible benefit. To me, this seems much more risky, because, as you say, there is a lot of uncertainty in the chaotic climate system as you say. However, solutions that stand on their own feet, regardless of whether AGW forecasts are correct or not seem to be no-brainers, and should gain acceptance readilly.
You criticised me previously for not being a scientist. That is fair, as I do not have a degree in a climate-related field. For this reason, I describe myself as a climate agnostic, having reached no firm conclusion either way as I do not see myself as qualified to do so. From my reading I am aware of a lot of spurious stuff on both sides of the debate which tends to make me suspicious with extreme claims.
I mentioned Hansen, earlier. Here is an example of how his temperature adjustments reflect against Wellington’s temperature record:
http://www.climate-skeptic.com/2007/09/is-james-hansen.html
This is typical of temperature adjustment techniques Hansen has used more generally where earlier temperatures are adjusted downwards, and later temperatures are adjusted upwards, producing an apparently artificial warming trend. Sorry, can’t find my link to the article right now.
This type of behaviour does not enhance credibility on either side. When reading articles on either side of the debate I prefer to see they are based on sound science and well researched.
Busy pushing code together at present, so I’ll respond later more fully.
But the real issue is that humans have been treating the biosphere as being effectively infinite for a long time, and that their environmental effects were relatively limited. You maybe could have argued that when the worlds population was less than 1 billion in the 19th century.
Generally we’re getting quite effective at handling local effects at a national level. The pollution goes up during developmental bursts and gets fixed by affluence. This is much the same as what happens with population and medical care.
We are still ratshit at handling problems are a global level. It doesn’t matter if it is finance companies rorting their way around varying legal frameworks, trade disputes of global pollution. In the latter case there is a really depressing track record over time – only the CFC’s stand out as being moderately acceptable.
We’re now approaching 7 billion and where most people on earth are using far more resources and excreting far more waste than they did prior to 1900. We’re probably going to touch 11 billion by 2050 (which there is a moderate probability that I’ll see – born in 1959 – I’d be 90’ish). It will probably remain at that level for a long time.
The effects of humanity are getting quite intense in the atmosphere and water systems which are both cross-borders. That will intensify as the population continues to rise and affluence levels spread.
To say that I don’t give a stuff about exact measurements or pallative techniques would be an understatement. If you look back at paleogeology, the effects of what we are doing to the biosphere are well known and well understood – it makes species at the top of the food chain extinct. The only thing we don’t know is what happens when we do it as fast as we are doing it now.
Bearing in mind the 20-30 year societal and infrastructure lead times for new technologies (and techniques) to spread. We need the alternates to old technologies being developed now. Rather than having rising states develop on a basis of coal liquidification (a 1940’s technology) for their transport needs and thereby intensifying the problems, we need better technologies going down the engineering path now.
The developed countries need to be involved in setting up the framework to develop those techs now because they are the societies with
a) the economic surpluses to do it.
b) the responsibility for causing the existing level of damage.
The should do it because if they don’t, then the rest of the world population will go affluent really fast using the existing technologies. That will directly impact on us because our societies are far more suseptible to disruption (essentially any more compex system is far more suscepible to chaotic environments than simplier ones).
Frankly the CCDs like those comedians in Act should really be forced to do some learning of economics. If they’d bother to look at the downstream effects of affluence and population on the biosphere they’re exploiting using their own economic philosphies, they’d be worth listening to. Instead what we get is wishful thinking based on the idea that it all going to be someones elses problem.
tsmithfield,
NOISE.. an interesting word which my desktop Collins posits derivation from Latin’s ‘nausea’. Added thereto several strains in respect of definition:
1. loud shouting, clamor;
2. sound ie the noise of rain;
3. any unwanted electrical signal within a communication system
Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.
Which is why you can now understand I felt impelled to ask you what you meant in your use of the term. In doing so, you will now realise, we have eliminated an uncertainty of communication.
That said, and taking account your perceptible need to ‘rely on science’ per the exchange/s with lprent I’d like to suggest that in the course of commentary to this particular blog you more than most have shifted very satisfactorily away from denialist’s strategem of deliberately NOISING in rumors rather than reports.
May this continue to be the case.
Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers? Think about it.
Do.
Northpaw: “Nowhere – there or elsewhere – a meaning to effect margin of error.”
Here is a link to a definition for statistical noise, which is pretty much as I understand it. Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise”.
http://www.wisegeek.com/what-is-statistical-noise.htm
Northpaw: “Small added point on peak oil: given greater scarcity, multiple uses and very large human reliance on this basic resource – chemical industry, pharmaceuticals, plastics to name but a few – and greater likely human populations with concomitant needs – to what extent is the replacement of fossil fuels for energy purposes to the positive long term advantage of those selfsame resource providers?”
As more of our energy is derived from non-oil sources, there will be more oil available for other ancillary purposes such as plastics etc. If this happens incrementally at a sufficient rate then oil should be available for ancillary purposes such as plastics etc for a long time. If the concern is greenhouse gases from burning oil, then it is preferable for oil to be locked up in forms such as plastics etc that does not enter the atmosphere.
tsmithfield,
thank you for the reply.. for the attempted answer in one part and limited response in another.. Now not to labor this(pun unintended) you wrote: Margin of error is by definition the result of “noise’. which to my eyes and mind states quite clearly that ‘margin of error’ is other than “noise” — not noise itself!
Use of ‘statistical noise’ in your original commentary might have helped somewhat though I’d hasten to add the term so used would make a nonsense of your two examples in relation to sea-level rise. Else revealed them for what they were—misleading at best and incomprehensible otherwise.
If I may allow me add that either you specify context in your use of terminology or not use another’s jargon at all without reference or linking to it.