Clusterfreak

Written By: - Date published: 9:57 am, December 12th, 2024 - 46 comments
Categories: act, Christopher Luxon, david seymour, national, nicola willis, nz first, transport - Tags:

After a long delay and many promises of an announcement about the future of the Cook Straight ferries yesterday’s announcement could be categorised as something of an anti climax.

It was an announcement that in the future they would make an announcement.

It was a year ago that the Government refused further funding for the project. National went to town on the issue and decided to cancel what was a really good contract because the enabling work, which have to be done anyway, were going to cost.

They promised that a cheaper and better solution would be found.

They appointed a Ministerial Advisory Group dominated by road interests and recommendations were reported back in June 2024.

MUNZ National Secretary Carl Findlay said this about the Group:

Given the advisory group’s antagonism of key players in the freight and shipping industry, and their dismissal of the importance of a rail system that delivers $3.3 billion in worth to NZ Inc each year, it’s not surprising their recommendation has stalled. It is surprising they still seem to be on the payroll although nobody seems to know what they are doing. The rumour in the sector is someone from the Government is talking to Chinese shipyards on the quiet.

About the political decision making process and the timing he said this:

Willis said soon for a new option, then she said the September quarter, now she says by the end of the year. Paul Goldsmith says it could be next year until a decision is made on replacing ferries. When asked about rail ferries, David Seymour mused on Q+A that maybe the South Island doesn’t really need a railway system.

Obviously feeling the pressure, Christopher Luxon last week stepped in with a vague “by the end of the year” statement.

This was written in early October.

Then yesterday we heard further details from the Government about how the matter will progress. Or to be accurate we heard three details, that Winston Peters will become Minister for Rail and that a company would be set up to buy two new medium sized shops to replace the afeing fleet of three ferries. And that the ports will be asked to bear more of the cost of the port build.

As pointed out by Craig Rennie what we did not hear include:

  • where replacement ferries are coming from
  • how much they will cost
  • who will pay for them
  • how the port infrastructure will be delivered
  • the fiscal or economic impact.

To add to this list we also do not know if they will be rail enabled. Christopher Luxon has uttered the phrase rail compatible which could mean anything but hints strongly at a walk back from the original commitment to rail.

And this morning there was this incredible attack on David Seymour’s credibility by Winston Peters over the issue.

The new Minister of Rail Winston Peters has poured scorn on ACT leader David Seymour’s hopes of privatising the Cook Strait ferry service, and says Seymour was “wrong” about the cost of the new project.

On Wednesday, Seymour said indicative costings were “approximately half the at least $3 billion cost” of Labour’s proposal.

He shared that information despite Minister of Finance Nicola Willis’ caution about disclosing costs.

Asked on Morning Report if the government had a sum in mind, Peters said it would be “stupid” and “imprudent” to name the price.

“I said [on Wednesday] it would be most imprudent, politically and business-wise, stupid, to start saying what you’re going to buy them for, because that’s the bottom line. They’ll start from there and up it will go.”

He rejected Seymour’s statement the new deal would cost a “fraction of the price” of the iRex project, and that private investment remained on the table.

…

“He’s wrong on the figures that he’s used, he’s wrong on the question of privatisation and he’s wrong on the question of what it’s going to cost.

This is going to get sticky. National’s and Act’s reflexive opposition to rail is going to meet head on with NZ First’s realisation that rail has a major role to play in the issue. Winston agreed strongly with Mainfreight’s Don Braid view that not having rail-enabled ferries will be inefficient and more costly for businesses like his and could lead to 10,000 more trucks on the country’s roads.

Time will tell if this is a coalition ending issue.

46 comments on “Clusterfreak ”

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  1. Bearded Git 1
    12 December 2024 at 10:06 am

    The Greens have, rightly, called this an "omnishambles" which is consistent with the post above.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/536384/interislander-replacement-opposition-astounded-disgusted-over-omnishambles

    Labour delivered on a quality $3 billion (or less) solution for a critical long term transport link between the islands. Luxon's warring coalition has delivered nothing.

    But it can afford to spend $22 billion on Roads of (National) Party Significance.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/budget-2024-extra-1b-for-roads-of-national-significance-leaves-green-party-transport-expert-dumbfounded/IUGPJHAFOVCTZPOPQFS46IXAH4/

  2. Muttonbird 2
    12 December 2024 at 10:13 am

    If we are now told by Willis ports and private interests will have to stump up some of the land side costs, why on earth didn't she propose this for iRex before scrapping iRex b/c of land side costs?

    And like the scrapped Auckland airport rail, a significant part of the cost over the lifetime of iRex would have been paid for by export customers and foreign tourists.

    The country is beginning to see how amateur these clowns are with the big issues and the economy. That includes Treasury.

  3. ianmac 3
    12 December 2024 at 10:24 am

    "that a company would be set up to buy two new medium sized ships"

    This means that the COC can avoid talk of privatisation – for now. But in a few years if still in office call for bids. So easy to sell a company.

    • Ad 3.1
      12 December 2024 at 2:08 pm

      Makes more likely that ACC or NZSuperfund can take a solid % of the new company, so that Peters can go over project budget and Willis protects her 2025 Budget.

  4. Tony Veitch 4
    12 December 2024 at 10:47 am

    As Chewie on BHN pointed out – the 3 ferries are nearing 30 years old, and will be replaced by 2 ferries of a similar size which could last for another 30 years.

    Does that mean there has been no growth factored into their (ACT-led govt) calculations for 60 years? Has NZ not got bigger, population-wise, economy-wise?

    A text-book example of short term thinking.

    This ACT-led CoC couldn’t manage a piss-up in a brewery!

  5. SPC 5
    12 December 2024 at 10:56 am

    There is a cost.

    1.more occasions when the Aratere is not available in future years 2026-2029

    2.port-side space/facility (land etc) of truck to ferry transfer of rail freight (not required when Aratere is around).

    (includes KiwiRail offsite storage yard area cost subsidy of the Cook Strait operator).

    3.road costs, congestion.

    Road-bridging has been suggested by the government as a way to upgrade the Cook Strait ferries without needing rail. Having only two new ferries has also been suggested.

    Braid said those ideas showed the government did not understand that rail was a very effective mode to move freight, or that people and freight at times must be separated.

    "It seemed to me that they thought that they could mix freight and passengers for every sailing using this road bridging type environment, which doesn't take into account the amount of land that's required at either end … nor had there been any thought given to the movement of hazardous goods across the Cook Strait which we utilised the ferries for when there are on no passengers on board (only crew) as they are the DG [dangerous goods] regulations of this country," he said.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/529180/government-did-not-consult-with-rail-users-before-cancelling-interislander-upgrade-industry-expert

    The next Labour government will probably look for a rail enabled second hand ferry (temporary use) before buying a new one.

    • Bearded Git 5.1
      12 December 2024 at 11:51 am

      The Picton to Blenheim road is already a nightmare to drive. Busy and twisty. Adding lots more trucks to this would not be a good idea.

  6. Adrian 6
    12 December 2024 at 11:07 am

    The Ports of Marlborough is a Marlborough Council owned company on behalf of the people of Marlborough province / district. There aren’t many of us, maybe 70,000 or about 25,000 ratepayers and now we are being expected to pay for this huge bulge of shitfuckery by the way of a new port on behalf of the other 5.43 million NZers. National have now quite happily dumped a bill of up to half a billion bucks on this small cohort of people, an unusually large percentage of whom are on fixed incomes.
    What sort of hand washing arseholery is this, quite aside from this being the tacit admission that whatever second-hand rust buckets they do end up salvaging off some breakers yard in South Asia somewhere it’s this admission that they STILL need the new infrastructure identical to the one they cancelled , to get the whole sorry mess to work. What a deceitful bunch of idiotic dickheads have we been saddled with.

    I don’t need to wish a pox on their houses because they have done that for themselves.

    Start donating now to the left wing party of your choice because we will have an election before Peters gives up his Deputy PMship.

    • Patricia Bremner 6.1
      12 December 2024 at 12:26 pm

      Yes I agree. Looks like Winnie is coming out of the 'agreement'.

    • Matiri 6.2
      12 December 2024 at 12:40 pm

      As another Top of the Souther, how do we go about seceding from the North Island? We have plenty of electricity to sell back to them at a premium!!!

    • Ad 6.3
      12 December 2024 at 2:10 pm

      Given that PoM lives off Strait traffic – as do almost all Picton residents – maybe it's time they did pay a chunk of the port upgrades.

  7. Tiger Mountain 7
    12 December 2024 at 11:11 am

    The geography of this country demands coastal shipping (preferably NZ run as Michael Wood and some industry figures were organising) and robust maritime transport between the two main Islands. Climate disaster, and crumbling roading demands an improved rail network, not expanded trucking.

    The CoC lot have totally botched this on ideological grounds at the risk of severing reliable NI/SI ferry connection. What's more, a Wahine disaster MkII could easily happen with powerless, rudderless vessels floating in Cook Strait in rough weather. Many may likely not risk “cruising on the InterIslander” these days.

    Labour got a good deal in mid COVID for new ferries and these effwits have shown again exactly where they stand on public infrastructure–nowhere!

  8. Stan 8
    12 December 2024 at 11:44 am

    Just to remind everyone that our country's financial future is controlled by Nicola Willis, graduated with a degree in ENGLISH LITERATURE.

    So embarrassing, she is a f#cking amateur.

    • Bearded Git 8.1
      12 December 2024 at 11:54 am

      …and they had the cheek to attack Robertson's excellent tenure as finance minister.

      • aj 8.1.1
        12 December 2024 at 12:01 pm

        …and the money given in tax cuts (the majority going to those that least need it) could have funded IREX (and Dunedin and other hospitals) several times over. Oh, and landlords.

    • tc 8.2
      12 December 2024 at 12:23 pm

      IMO Willis is just another puppet getting their strings pulled so no financial experience was required.

      The plan is to plunder and her world class arrogance will probably see her remain in the role until the hollowmen throw her under a bus she will not see coming.

    • SPC 8.3
      12 December 2024 at 12:24 pm

      Best FM in a long time according to Luxon, does no one tell him anything?

      Willis was once an English protege (both literature), before being prepped with real world experience off-farm at Fonterra.

    • Incognito 8.4
      12 December 2024 at 12:56 pm

      Your criticism sounds compelling and persuasive. However, Willis was elected as List MP for National, not as Minister of Finance as such. Obviously, the PMC rules the roost in all Ministries and government agencies.

    • AB 8.5
      12 December 2024 at 1:42 pm

      She gives Eng Lit graduates a bad name – by her total lack of irony, reflection, sense of ambiguity, doubt, humility, sensitivity to human character or precision with words and meanings.

      • Descendant Of Smith 8.5.1
        12 December 2024 at 1:55 pm

        A friend of mine, just happened to be at university with her, and said she was most horrible person in class. This was said unprompted and well before she was even an MP.

        I should catch up and ask if she thinks she has improved any.

      • gsays 8.5.2
        12 December 2024 at 7:40 pm

        She is our first post-modern Finance Minister!

  9. Mike the Lefty 9
    12 December 2024 at 12:17 pm

    So the future of the (maybe) rail ferries appears to hang on the personal conflict between the two deputy PMs, both who want to be the cock of the walk.

    So once again, where is Luxon? You know LUXON, the one that is supposed to be our PM, our leader?

    It is no wonder that nobody outside government (except National Party apologist Nick Legatt) has voiced any confidence in the outcome.

  10. powerman 10
    12 December 2024 at 12:33 pm

    We have Seymour's ministry of nothing, Winstone's as Minister of Trains (will he have a Ministry of Officials?) and a Procurement Company — bureaucracy gone mad! I guess Luxton will be away soon to his holiday pad in Hawaii avoiding any questions for a while.

  11. joe90 11
    12 December 2024 at 12:45 pm

    Gordon Campbell:

    Ultimately, you have to go back to the mid-1970s and the decision by Robert Muldoon to cancel the previous Labour government’s national superannuation fund to find a decision that’s as bad as this ferries decision, and as short-sighted.

    Similarly, this ideologically-driven decision by Willis and her coa;ition colleagues is going to have dire consequences for generations to come. Elsewhere, governments resign after displaying incompetence of this magnitude.

    https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2412/S00018/gordon-campbell-on-the-governments-ongoing-ferries-disaster.htm

    • gsays 11.1
      12 December 2024 at 7:36 pm

      I couldn't agree more with Campbell.

      What gives me a glimmer of hope is Peter's being from Muldoon's time.

      I'm thinking of e-mailing him expressing my gratitude that this opportunity is in his hands and how it's a chance to add to an already stellar legacy (mention Gold Card).

  12. observer 12
    12 December 2024 at 1:50 pm

    There is a vast library of archive material, going back decades, where National party leaders and spokespeople mock the idea that Winston Peters has any grasp of finance, or should be in charge of anything. (Whether they were right or wrong is not the point, it was what they said and believed. They despise him).

    I bet they cringe when they hear Luxon sing his praises now.

  13. Vivie 13
    12 December 2024 at 2:00 pm

    Nicola Willis presents as extremely arrogant. I'm sure many people work or have worked with colleagues who are deluded, incompetent self-promoters, sometimes progressing to roles beyond their capabilities, who then cause disruption and dysfunction in the workplace.

    Willis's and her colleagues' repeated attacks on the previous Government are transparent attempts to deflect from the Coalition's chaotic, socially destructive policies.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/top/536369/ferry-plan-reveal-i-ve-delivered-finance-minister-nicola-willis-declares-though-details-are-scarce

    "….It is still not clear, however, what the cost of the ferries will be, who will build them, or whether they will be rail-enabled.

    But Finance Minister Nicola Willis is notching it up as a big success.

    "I've delivered. I've discharged my duty to the New Zealand people," she said. "You were landed with an absolute dog of a project and a new government is going to clean it up."….

    • Macro 13.1
      12 December 2024 at 2:17 pm

      "I've delivered. I've discharged my duty to the New Zealand people," she said. "You were landed with an absolute dog of a project and a new government is going to clean it up."….

      Yeah. I couldn't believe the total unawareness of that statement – she has delivered nothing! She like the rest of her colleagues live in la la land. The haven't a clue and yet think they are the most amazing people on the planet. Just totally unbelievable, that we as a country have allowed these clowns to "govern" our country.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 13.1.1
        12 December 2024 at 5:59 pm

        They [our CoC MPs] haven't a clue and yet think they are the most amazing people on the planet.

        yes Quoted for truth – here’s another nice mess they've gotten us into.

        Ready the lifeboats: the coalition boat appears to be listing
        [12 Dec 2024]
        Twelve months after the coalition government torpedoed the new ferry plan it had inherited, along with a wild cost blowout, from the previous government, a much heralded announcement finally arrived on Wednesday, and it provided plenty more questions that it did answers.

        What does the latest instalment in the great ferry saga tell us about the state of the coalition, with David Seymour getting publicly ticked off by the new minister for rail Winston Peters? What kind of ferries will we end up with? And will they ro-ro or won’t they ro-ro?

        "It's a case of slower to go faster" – Chris ‘What I say to you‘ Luxon

      • Incognito 13.1.2
        12 December 2024 at 6:19 pm

        Willis kicked a dog to the curb that Winston is gonna save, together with those greyhounds. Instead of bread & circuses we’re taken for a ride to the zoo.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 13.1.2.1
          12 December 2024 at 7:40 pm

          See all the monkeys scritch, scritch scratching
          …
          See the slippery seals splish, splash, splashing
          …
          Great big rhino he's huff, huff, a-puffing

          What I say to you is: We are going to the zoo this decade, and we can stay all day!

  14. tWig 14
    12 December 2024 at 2:07 pm

    Big Hairy News have a confab with Craig Rennie, a Seaman's Union rep, Craig Findley, and Labour's Tangi Utikere on this ferry issue (from 6 min). Good to see a range of info from smart people.

    BHN also sell "Nicky No-boats' merch. They were going to change it to Nicky- two boats when the news came out that the government were calling a press conference on this, but the current T-shirts are just fine (and spotted in the Halls of Power, too).

  15. Muttonbird 15
    12 December 2024 at 4:57 pm

    Cluckwit is making a lot out of this March date when the new organisation which has no directors is due to make a decision. He claims this time will be used to get a better deal.

    I would have thought if you want new ship sailing in 2029 they need to be contracted right now. The anonymous directors will have just weeks, if that, to do what should be a year's work in carefully procuring a new ship contract.

    Reading between the lines, they thought they could buy used vessels and they quickly found out they can't. Now, because of their reputation and desperation they're having trouble buying new ships.

    Utter morons.

    • thinker 15.1
      12 December 2024 at 6:05 pm

      The funniest part to me was Nicola Willis.

      After 12 months, and to a country expecting to hear about the new proposal, she announced the appointment of Peters as Minister for investigating and concluding the deal.

      'Ive delivered " she said.

      • SPC 15.1.1
        13 December 2024 at 9:14 am

        It's only a fertilised egg dear Nicola, dear Nicola, only a fertilised egg. Peters has to berth both the ships.

        Will he have enough money for a successful surrogacy dear Nicola, dear Nicola.

        And will Seymour demand private sector adoption?

  16. Christopher Randal 16
    12 December 2024 at 5:52 pm

    "Time will tell if this is a coalition ending issue."

    Dear Lord, please let it be so!! Please.

  17. thinker 17
    12 December 2024 at 5:59 pm

    “This is going to get sticky. National’s and Act’s reflexive opposition to rail is going to meet head on with NZ First’s realisation that rail has a major role to play in the issue.”

    …and meet head on with NZF and ACT competing to be the next-biggest voteholder in case national wins in 2026 and wants to do deals with it's natural coalition partner.

    As Churchill said about Dunkirk – this is not the end. It may not be the beginning of the end. But it may be the end of the beginning.

    Or something like that.

  18. Incognito 18
    12 December 2024 at 7:46 pm

    Newsroom’s Jonathan Milne has written a very good piece on this topic.

    https://newsroom.co.nz/2024/12/12/own-goal-govt-sets-new-4b-goalpost-for-ferries/ [expect subscription barrier to be lifted tomorrow]

    He cites the chief executive, Alex Budzier, of UK consultancy Oxford Global Projects that supposedly did the benchmarking of Project iRex.

    “I think it is absolutely reasonable to pause this project and think about alternative options,” Budzier says. “Especially as their analysis points out that this is not a commercially viable operation and therefore loan financing is not an option. Government doesn’t really have a good option available to them.

    “In my view, they are protecting the taxpayers and holding KiwiRail accountable, while it’s an imperative to ensure that the connectivity exists. Fundamentally it’s a dilemma of treating state-owned KiwiRail like a private sector company to provide a loss-making public service.”

    This last sentence captures the ideological opposition of CoC against public service in general, in my opinion, i.e., loss-making public service that cannot be done by the private sector is not worth a penny from taxpayers – only ‘essential’ services should be provided by the state at the expense of taxpayers. The sinking lid approach to public service, with associated preparing of (potentially) profit-making activities for private sector, aims to reduce the state to a minor player without any say and competitive power. As with all Ponzi schemes (aka capitalism), those at the top stand to benefit most.

  19. Jack 19
    13 December 2024 at 6:32 am

    Luxon has turned to Peters to provide the leadership sorely lacking.

  20. Adrian 20
    13 December 2024 at 8:29 am

    It is important to remember that since time immemorial the Cook Straight transport service, ie ferries for road and rail has been considered by governments of all stripes that this link is actually part of Highway 1 even though it is on water it is considered to be akin to a bridge. The people of Marlborough do not have to pay for it when it passes through all the towns of the province, so why is it considered sane and reasonable that a mere 25,000 ratepayers should pay for and therefore own half a billion dollars worth of its infrastructure. MDC merely administers and runs it currently . It is no money spinner, the majority of Marlborough Harbour Board income is from the marine industry and predominately the marinas. A classic example of more handwashing from Pontius Pilate Luxon.

  21. georgecom 21
    13 December 2024 at 1:12 pm

    seems everything Nicola Willis touches turns into a CF – health, borrowing for her tax cuts, rail ferries etc