Written By:
notices and features - Date published:
5:30 pm, July 10th, 2017 - 102 comments
Categories: Daily review -
Tags:
The current rise of populism challenges the way we think about people’s relationship to the economy.We seem to be entering an era of populism, in which leadership in a democracy is based on preferences of the population which do not seem entirely rational nor serving their longer interests. ...
The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-labour-and-andrew-little-take-hit-just-over-two-months-election
Oh dear
If you are now beginning to think tactically, maybe Winston is looking more attractive now.
NZF is the only party guaranteed to alter the government.
Thrown in the towel?
This is an improvement. I was a bit concerned he might have been going blue 🙂
Gyrating!
You’re just lucky the towel is staying on for now.
So National has continued its downward trend falling two points.
The outgoing PM fell 3 points in the preferred PM poll.
Greens and NZ 1st are both up 2 points.
And with their current coalition partners National will not have enough seats to govern.
Meanwhile DeBarclay is anything but over
Lol at the trend comment.
National is polling higher than where they were back in 2008, or do the galactic numbers tell the true story?
Who did you vote for last election BM?
Yes the numbers are good, but not for the outgoing government.
This may come as a bit of a shock but I actually party voted National.
Ok, so do you feel more or less confident with National since their leader has changed please?
I think Bills doing an ok job, but that’s the great thing about National, as the polls show it more than just the leader.
Then why did their billboards look like this in 2014?
http://68.media.tumblr.com/cb71c89c3ca9a297e569a5d90eba7d5b/tumblr_inline_n9euv3z5351qzeepy.jpg
And why did their billboards look like this in 2011?
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7LTy3Ia51Ls/Tn7_ge3sNlI/AAAAAAAABGI/kfpoNAa6ndw/s1600/national_illegal_election_sign.jpg
Yeah it never was about the leader for National lol 😆
BM never has an answer.
Spray and walk away…..
Bill’s doing an OK job, huh?
Interesting, thanks for your honesty BM.
EDIT: Interestingly the flyer I’ve recently received from the outgoing government features Bill, and only Bill, photo’s of Bill.
After pointing it out to a colleague, he felt that Paula was so disliked that it would be near on political suicide to put photos of her with Bill on their flyers.
Dang I love election time, it’s like a political junkies rugby world cup lmaoooo!!!!!
So preferred PM vote seems pretty meaningless?
Downward trend to 47% and little polls 4th (and lowest leader of the opposition since 2009) and cinny thinks this is good.
I didn’t mention one word about Labour.
James, please try not to assume. Thank you.
And who did you vote for last election James?
“I didn’t mention one word about Labour.
James, please try not to assume. Thank you.”
Nor did I.
And national. And yes I’m still confident of a 4th term.
Good to know.
Who did you vote for Cinny?
The kids and I have voted for Greens the last two elections.
Purely because our very existence depends on this planet and the Greens are the only ones that seemed to get that 3 years ago and 3 years prior to that.
Education, Health, Money cease to exist without humanity, humanity ceases to exist without a planet.
Yup it’s that cut and dry for us, anything else is a bonus.
It’s been good to see more people becoming environmentally aware over the last three years.
National 47% (down from 49)
Labour 27% (down from 29)
Greens 11% (up from 9)
NZ First 11% (up from 9)
Maori Party 2% (up from 1)
Opportunities Party 1% (Steady)
Preferred Prime Minister:
Bill English 26% (down from 29)
Winston Peters 11% (up from 7)
Jacinda Ardern 6% (steady)
Andrew Little 5% (down from 8)
Not great for National or English, trending towards dire for Labour and Little.
Is this why Turei has launched an attack on NZ First, to get what votes Greens can on their own?
Those are rounded, the detailed results may take a while. Polling conducted 1-5 July, sample size of 1007 eligible voters. Margin of error about +/-3.1%
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/andrew-little-drops-fourth-preferred-pm-in-latest-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-sees-both-major-parties-take-hit
What was Bill English when he first became leader?
His rating seems to be plummeting.
Perhaps – but he has a hell of a buffer to me 5%
Going by this poll this election could be a repeat of 2002 with the roles of National and Labour reversed.
In 2002, once the polls consistently showed National had no show, National’s own voters deserted it. They went to ACT, NZF and United Future. National’s floor proved to be just over 20%.
So if this happens to Labour this time round then the Greens, NZF and TOP will be the beneficiaries. If Labour drops as low as National did in 2002, there is a further 7% to be distributed, say 2% to each of the three minor parties (though to be fair the Greens and NZF are no longer in the category of minor). At 3% that puts TOP quite close to 5%, at least close enough for voters to give TOP another look. If the voters like what they see TOP will go over 5%, but if they don’t, that is conclude TOP is too eccentric, then 2 to 3% will be TOP’s peak. More likely the latter I think.
I get the sense that much of the electorate (maybe 20%, and mostly on the left) is quite fickle at the moment, not really deeply angry as in the US, the UK and Europe, but perhaps prepared to be a bit experimental.
National’s chance in the election is to portray itself as the rock of stability, but that has to be put in an appealing way. Done badly, as it was by Theresa May, that message is hard to sell. I appreciate Standardnistas talk about Nationals four way coalition as being more complicated than the alternative of Labour, NZF and the Greens, but in reality National is the colossus among minnows. So the public really see National as the government, with some minor add ons.
labour is losing votes because it did not have the strategy to back itself from the outset.(The rumor of a run on a bank becomes a self fulfilling prophecy)
Greens being urbanites will have significant difficulty in attracting rural voters (the east coast of the NI being a good example).
NZF is seen as defending the kiwi battler Ron Marks being a good example in the Wairarapa.This election may be won or lost in the provinces.
‘This election may be won or lost in the provinces.’
Agreed.
A revealing comment!
I find it very puzzling and slightly worrying that not nearly enough people/voters seem to have a problem with the huge asymmetry of the so-called National coalition.
Such asymmetry is a problem in any relationship and inevitably leads to unfairness. Think of the ABs playing a high school team; it’s just not a level playing field.
So, why this is supposed to be a good thing in NZ politics is beyond me. A healthy functional democracy is based on fairness, equality, and symmetric relationships that will foster mutual respect and trust.
This is beginning to stress me the fuck out
Why?
Because we are sleepwalking to a 4th term in opposition.
What do you mean we Tonto?
Mate, you’ve still got a 5th Term to get through yet, don’t burn yourself out.
That made me laugh. Well played.
It’s just a game to you, isn’t it?
Forget Child Poverty, eh…
Remember this?
You’re right about sleepwalking. I’m sensing a general lack of enthusiasm amongst the masses about the upcoming election. There’s also much more stuff happening overseas (Trump, Brexit, North Korea etc) that acts as a general distraction to home-grown politics.
ONE News Colmar Brunton poll (2/3): Refuse to answer 5%, undecided 15%(+2). Fieldwork conducted 1-5 July #nzpol
https://twitter.com/ColmarBruntonNZ/status/884291772729270273
Those numbers are consistent with the number who won’t vote on the day
Two weeks to vote, advance voting rocks.
Anyone need a ride to the polling booth?
Hey there’s polling booth next to the supermarket, I’ll keep an eye on bub’s while you duck in there.
Grandma, it’s raining today, and a bit cold, I’ll come and get you tomorrow instead and we can have a cuppa after you’ve voted… any other oldies need a ride down there, yes we can stop at the library on the way home.
Hey there neighbour, have you voted yet? All good you have until the end of next week…..
Hi there parents picking up kids from school, don’t forget to vote, yes I know the advance voting makes it so much easier.
JS 😀 And the special votes, well National lost a seat 2 weeks after last election because of the specials
“Those numbers are consistent with the number who won’t vote on the day”
I think to get everyone in the mix you’d have to include people who didn’t answer the phone.
And undecided will include some voters.
Good chance it’s propagandising by the fake news networks. They got their hits on the Labour leader, Labour interns and the Greens all based on their fake numbers.
Yep – this is a continuation of 9 years of fake numbers.
In 2014, the July CB poll had National on 52 % (‘they could be governing ALONE’, gasp). In fact, CB only got close to the Nats actual final result just before the actual election. All other polls in the lead-up had them at 50+ %. Fake? Probably not. Margin of error and always on the far right end of it? Definitely.
Oh dear?
Thought you would be happy.
Me – I am very much so. But I’m saving the champers till Election Day.
Stunned Mullet;
Oh dear, indeed.
UK Labour was 20 points behind two months out. Anything can happen
He just needs another 6 weeks.
And a radical manifesto….
http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour%20Manifesto%202017.pdf
It’s the radical manifesto and passion that’s missing.
Ditto from me draco.
Are you comparing little to Corbyn.
You mean this guy…..
‘YouGov has released its latest Westminster voting intention polling. And if you trust polls, it’s very good news for Labour. In line with the trend since the general election on 8 June, Labour is ahead. But the party under Corbyn has now set a new record; as the polling company has put Labour on 46% – its highest ever scoring in a YouGov poll.
This now puts Labour 8% clear of the Tories (38%). But delve a little deeper, and the results make even better reading for Corbyn.’
https://www.thecanary.co/2017/07/07/jeremy-corbyn-just-set-new-record-labour-party-theresa-may-will-absolutely-furious/
Inside Aleppo: Can the city be rebuilt?
Get a new leader otherwise you will not poll 20% Are you that dumb you can’t see the inevitable?
They said that about Corbyn….
They don’t need a new leader; they need radical socialist policies.
What worked in the U.K. Won’t work in NZ (IMHO anyway).
I just don’t think there is a single way back for little.
Labour are heading to doing worse this election than last time.
Having said that I was totally wrong about corbyn
Extreme right wing commentators said about Corbyn as well.
However Corbyn had this on his side.
You should read it.
http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour%20Manifesto%202017.pdf
But little isn’t Corbyn. The right wrote Corbyn off because of his socialist policies.
If little copied him I would have some hope but little seems to be too scared to go down that road.
Being brave gets you to 46%.
Exactly.
Do you think little is being brave?
What do you think?
Not at all. That is why I am worried. He seems to be scared to upset the main stream media so says things to please them rather than the poor.
And that’s the guy you want to be leader ?
James, you are obsessed with leaders.
Policy counts for far more.
Seems people don’t like labours policies either. 27% ouch.
That is my point.
Labour needs to be braver.
NZ Labour isn’t brave. Little is much different to Corbyn.
The UK situation is much different to New Zealand. They have FPP, Brexit, the European Union, Europe right next door, they had a needless snap election, and Theresa May was a disaster as a campaigner.
Swinging to hard left socialism here under MMP would be fast track self destruction. It would hand NZ First the balance of power with National back for a fourth term.
Hard left socialism.
You should read this – it’s your sort of paper…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html
Or maybe this…
https://www.thesun.co.uk/
Nailed it Ed, and now’s the opportunity to do it.
Socialism does work
Jeremy Corbyn at the Oxford Union.
and yet history is littered with countries fucked by socialism, go figure
Like countries destroyed by neoliberlaism….
Jeremy Corbyn Proud to Be a Socialist
So still not as much as the nats ???
Neither Principled, Nor Pragmatic. What’s Eating The Greens?
By Chris Trotter
‘If the sixteenth century Protestant leader, Henry of Navarre (later to become the very Catholic Henry IV of France) was willing to concede that “Paris is worth a mass”, then Metiria Turei should be willing to concede that the Ninth Floor of the Beehive is worth biting her tongue over Winston’s shortcomings.’
https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/07/10/neither-principled-nor-pragmatic-whats-eating-the-greens/
What’s Eating The Greens?
The MoU probably, and the MoU partner.
Evidence or supposition?
Opinion.
Why else would Metiria go hard out on sustained attack against NZ First and destroy off any chance of Labouir+NZ First+Greens?
It looks like self interest and stuff the rest.
“Why else would Metiria go hard out on sustained attack against NZ First and destroy off any chance of Labouir+NZ First+Greens?”
Except she didn’t do that. She said that Greens will work with NZF if that’s the way the election falls but are going to campaign on getting as many votes as possible to get a L/G govt. She said that really clearly.
NYT apologizes to North Korea for false news
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD-zv1MW0AI-l3r.jpg
Fairfax call it grim news for labour.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/94589812/labours-poll-hit-grim-news-for-the-party
They would say that.
That’s like saying the Daily Mail criticised UK Labour.
http://eveningharold.com/2017/06/12/daily-mail-regrets-not-being-more-critical-of-jeremy-corbyn/
Meanwhile in our “rockstar economy” Auckland’s City Mission has reached capacity. In a statement released today Auckland City Mission says:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1707/S00120/auckland-city-mission-at-capacity.htm
33 years of neoliberalism and too many people don’t care.
People like BM and James seem to have forgotten to care for others….
Is this a cartoon of James or BM?
https://scontent.fakl2-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/34511_448384111396_647455_n.jpg?oh=bb180c4119bad9daad07945ce3b8a085&oe=5A03D500
Thanks Helen for creating thousands of welfare & charity dependent unfortunates. For anyone to blame the Nats for this is the peak of dishonesty – more than a few of you starting to feel pretty guilty by now I hope. Shame on you for doing it then, more shame for trying to do it again.
Empathy is a real strength of yours, isn’t it?
33 years of neoliberalism has really been a great fertiliser for sociopathic behaviour.
John Oliver gives National and New Zealand another good long slapping:
Not sure why youtube says that’s published on 9 July, it’s been around for a while.
Ad,
Who gives a damm what leftie journalist John Oliver thinks. To the extent he has an effect it will be the same as Kim Dot Com. Any criticism from Oliver will simply have New Zealanders giving him the finger, by way of their vote. New Zealanders hate condescension by some know it all foreigner.
Actually he is funny and shows the gnats to be the most unfunny bunch out. Obviousley he got under your skin there Wayne lol.
I love the way you assume to speak for New Zealanders….
This looks like a good read.
‘Yorkshireman Austin Mitchell lived in New Zealand for eight years while lecturing in political science. In 1972 he wrote his best-selling commentary on the New Zealand way of life, The Half-Gallon Quarter-Acre Pavlova Paradise. Now he returns to the fray with Revenge of the Rich, an outspoken opinion piece on the impact of neoliberalism on society in Britain and New Zealand, based on his popular lectures as a visiting fellow at the University of Canterbury in 2016.’
https://t.co/ZNbG2KxD9X?amp=1
Bill English really is delivering for New Zealanders.
‘Homeless man’s park-bench death a ‘national shame.’
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11888654
Bill continuing to deliver for New Zealanders.
‘Students pay millions to sit NCEA exams, but one in six can’t afford $76 fee.’
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/education/94463814/students-pay-millions-to-sit-ncea-exams-but-one-in-six-cant-afford-76-fee
Obviously, there is an urgent NEED to oust National and ensure an independent future for NZ. However, with a sizeable minority of the voting public self-contented, and others anxious but too frightened to upset rotten apple carts, I fear Labour (and the Greens) are marching resolutely towards defeat.
National will continue to plumb new depths but hey ho – they’re like a dirty river so full of shit already that another deBarclay here or there won’t make a difference. Their relentless mission is to make the rich much richer (where did the $$$ come from?), and damn the consequences.
Andrew Little is genuine and, for whatever reasons, lacks broad electoral appeal. Labour’s choice of election slogan (“A fresh approach”) is timid and, unless the left do something exceptional to capture the imagination of ‘the missing million’, National’s vote will probably be slightly more than Labour’s + Green’s. Winston will be obliged to talk to National First, who will do whatever is necessary to ‘govern’.
Given their election slogan, Labour seem to be pinning their hopes on ‘time for a change.’ And it is, WELL PAST TIME, but only if Labour can change as well, and if they can I hope they haven’t left it too late. FOR THE MANY, NOT THE FEW.
For the many, not the few.
Here’s some ideas for Labour…
http://www.labour.org.uk/page/-/Images/manifesto-2017/Labour%20Manifesto%202017.pdf
What is it that makes people vote against their own best interest ?.its sort of like self flagellation, I’m poor and disposessed therefore I deserve it.