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Daily Review 10/07/2017

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, July 10th, 2017 - 102 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

102 comments on “Daily Review 10/07/2017 ”

    • Ad 1.1

      If you are now beginning to think tactically, maybe Winston is looking more attractive now.
      NZF is the only party guaranteed to alter the government.

    • Cinny 1.2

      So National has continued its downward trend falling two points.
      The outgoing PM fell 3 points in the preferred PM poll.

      Greens and NZ 1st are both up 2 points.

      And with their current coalition partners National will not have enough seats to govern.

      Meanwhile DeBarclay is anything but over

      • BM 1.2.1

        Lol at the trend comment.

        National is polling higher than where they were back in 2008, or do the galactic numbers tell the true story?

      • Carolyn_nth 1.2.2

        So preferred PM vote seems pretty meaningless?

      • James 1.2.3

        Downward trend to 47% and little polls 4th (and lowest leader of the opposition since 2009) and cinny thinks this is good.

        • Cinny 1.2.3.1

          I didn’t mention one word about Labour.
          James, please try not to assume. Thank you.

          And who did you vote for last election James?

          • James 1.2.3.1.1

            “I didn’t mention one word about Labour.
            James, please try not to assume. Thank you.”

            Nor did I.

            And national. And yes I’m still confident of a 4th term.

            • Cinny 1.2.3.1.1.1

              Good to know.

              • Enough is Enough

                Who did you vote for Cinny?

                • Cinny

                  The kids and I have voted for Greens the last two elections.

                  Purely because our very existence depends on this planet and the Greens are the only ones that seemed to get that 3 years ago and 3 years prior to that.

                  Education, Health, Money cease to exist without humanity, humanity ceases to exist without a planet.

                  Yup it’s that cut and dry for us, anything else is a bonus.

                  It’s been good to see more people becoming environmentally aware over the last three years.

    • National 47% (down from 49)
      Labour 27% (down from 29)
      Greens 11% (up from 9)
      NZ First 11% (up from 9)
      Maori Party 2% (up from 1)
      Opportunities Party 1% (Steady)

      Preferred Prime Minister:
      Bill English 26% (down from 29)
      Winston Peters 11% (up from 7)
      Jacinda Ardern 6% (steady)
      Andrew Little 5% (down from 8)

      Not great for National or English, trending towards dire for Labour and Little.

      Is this why Turei has launched an attack on NZ First, to get what votes Greens can on their own?

      Those are rounded, the detailed results may take a while. Polling conducted 1-5 July, sample size of 1007 eligible voters. Margin of error about +/-3.1%

      https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/andrew-little-drops-fourth-preferred-pm-in-latest-1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-sees-both-major-parties-take-hit

      • Ed 1.3.1

        What was Bill English when he first became leader?
        His rating seems to be plummeting.

      • wayne 1.3.2

        Going by this poll this election could be a repeat of 2002 with the roles of National and Labour reversed.

        In 2002, once the polls consistently showed National had no show, National’s own voters deserted it. They went to ACT, NZF and United Future. National’s floor proved to be just over 20%.

        So if this happens to Labour this time round then the Greens, NZF and TOP will be the beneficiaries. If Labour drops as low as National did in 2002, there is a further 7% to be distributed, say 2% to each of the three minor parties (though to be fair the Greens and NZF are no longer in the category of minor). At 3% that puts TOP quite close to 5%, at least close enough for voters to give TOP another look. If the voters like what they see TOP will go over 5%, but if they don’t, that is conclude TOP is too eccentric, then 2 to 3% will be TOP’s peak. More likely the latter I think.

        I get the sense that much of the electorate (maybe 20%, and mostly on the left) is quite fickle at the moment, not really deeply angry as in the US, the UK and Europe, but perhaps prepared to be a bit experimental.

        National’s chance in the election is to portray itself as the rock of stability, but that has to be put in an appealing way. Done badly, as it was by Theresa May, that message is hard to sell. I appreciate Standardnistas talk about Nationals four way coalition as being more complicated than the alternative of Labour, NZF and the Greens, but in reality National is the colossus among minnows. So the public really see National as the government, with some minor add ons.

        • Poission 1.3.2.1

          labour is losing votes because it did not have the strategy to back itself from the outset.(The rumor of a run on a bank becomes a self fulfilling prophecy)

          Greens being urbanites will have significant difficulty in attracting rural voters (the east coast of the NI being a good example).

          NZF is seen as defending the kiwi battler Ron Marks being a good example in the Wairarapa.This election may be won or lost in the provinces.

        • Incognito 1.3.2.2

          I appreciate Standardnistas talk about Nationals four way coalition as being more complicated than the alternative of Labour, NZF and the Greens, but in reality National is the colossus among minnows. So the public really see National as the government, with some minor add ons.

          A revealing comment!

          I find it very puzzling and slightly worrying that not nearly enough people/voters seem to have a problem with the huge asymmetry of the so-called National coalition.

          Such asymmetry is a problem in any relationship and inevitably leads to unfairness. Think of the ABs playing a high school team; it’s just not a level playing field.

          So, why this is supposed to be a good thing in NZ politics is beyond me. A healthy functional democracy is based on fairness, equality, and symmetric relationships that will foster mutual respect and trust.

    • Enough is Enough 1.4

      This is beginning to stress me the fuck out

      • BM 1.4.1

        Why?

        • Enough is Enough 1.4.1.1

          Because we are sleepwalking to a 4th term in opposition.

          • Ad 1.4.1.1.1

            What do you mean we Tonto?

          • BM 1.4.1.1.2

            Mate, you’ve still got a 5th Term to get through yet, don’t burn yourself out.

          • McGrath 1.4.1.1.3

            You’re right about sleepwalking. I’m sensing a general lack of enthusiasm amongst the masses about the upcoming election. There’s also much more stuff happening overseas (Trump, Brexit, North Korea etc) that acts as a general distraction to home-grown politics.

      • weka 1.4.2

        ONE News Colmar Brunton poll (2/3): Refuse to answer 5%, undecided 15%(+2). Fieldwork conducted 1-5 July #nzpol

        • Enough is Enough 1.4.2.1

          Those numbers are consistent with the number who won’t vote on the day

          • Cinny 1.4.2.1.1

            Two weeks to vote, advance voting rocks.

            Anyone need a ride to the polling booth?

            Hey there’s polling booth next to the supermarket, I’ll keep an eye on bub’s while you duck in there.

            Grandma, it’s raining today, and a bit cold, I’ll come and get you tomorrow instead and we can have a cuppa after you’ve voted… any other oldies need a ride down there, yes we can stop at the library on the way home.

            Hey there neighbour, have you voted yet? All good you have until the end of next week…..

            Hi there parents picking up kids from school, don’t forget to vote, yes I know the advance voting makes it so much easier.

            JS 😀 And the special votes, well National lost a seat 2 weeks after last election because of the specials

          • weka 1.4.2.1.2

            “Those numbers are consistent with the number who won’t vote on the day”

            I think to get everyone in the mix you’d have to include people who didn’t answer the phone.

            And undecided will include some voters.

      • mauī 1.4.3

        Good chance it’s propagandising by the fake news networks. They got their hits on the Labour leader, Labour interns and the Greens all based on their fake numbers.

        • James 1.4.3.1

          Yep – this is a continuation of 9 years of fake numbers.

        • Augustus 1.4.3.2

          In 2014, the July CB poll had National on 52 % (‘they could be governing ALONE’, gasp). In fact, CB only got close to the Nats actual final result just before the actual election. All other polls in the lead-up had them at 50+ %. Fake? Probably not. Margin of error and always on the far right end of it? Definitely.

    • Ed 1.5

      Oh dear?
      Thought you would be happy.

    • billmurray 1.6

      Stunned Mullet;
      Oh dear, indeed.

  1. Ethica 2

    UK Labour was 20 points behind two months out. Anything can happen

  2. Ed 3

    Inside Aleppo: Can the city be rebuilt?

  3. dad4justice 4

    Get a new leader otherwise you will not poll 20% Are you that dumb you can’t see the inevitable?

  4. Ed 5

    Neither Principled, Nor Pragmatic. What’s Eating The Greens?
    By Chris Trotter

    ‘If the sixteenth century Protestant leader, Henry of Navarre (later to become the very Catholic Henry IV of France) was willing to concede that “Paris is worth a mass”, then Metiria Turei should be willing to concede that the Ninth Floor of the Beehive is worth biting her tongue over Winston’s shortcomings.’

    https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2017/07/10/neither-principled-nor-pragmatic-whats-eating-the-greens/

    • What’s Eating The Greens?

      The MoU probably, and the MoU partner.

      • Ed 5.1.1

        Evidence or supposition?

        • Pete George 5.1.1.1

          Opinion.

          @robhosking
          Metiria Turei’s attack on Winston Peters was really an attack on Labour.

          Winston wasn’t the real target of Turei’s ‘racism’ jibe

          Ms Turei’s real message was “Labour are a bunch of desperate gutless sellouts who will cave in to NZ First’s knuckle-draggers”.

          https://www.nbr.co.nz/subscribe/205074

          Why else would Metiria go hard out on sustained attack against NZ First and destroy off any chance of Labouir+NZ First+Greens?

          It looks like self interest and stuff the rest.

          • weka 5.1.1.1.1

            “Why else would Metiria go hard out on sustained attack against NZ First and destroy off any chance of Labouir+NZ First+Greens?”

            Except she didn’t do that. She said that Greens will work with NZF if that’s the way the election falls but are going to campaign on getting as many votes as possible to get a L/G govt. She said that really clearly.

  5. Poission 6

    NYT apologizes to North Korea for false news

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DD-zv1MW0AI-l3r.jpg

  6. Macro 8

    Meanwhile in our “rockstar economy” Auckland’s City Mission has reached capacity. In a statement released today Auckland City Mission says:

    The Auckland City Mission’s services are maxed out.

    The Auckland City Mission says its social services are “at capacity,” and staff members are exhausted by the level of desperate need pouring through the charity’s doors.

    Auckland City Missioner, Chris Farrelly, says the organisation is set to distribute roughly the same number of food parcels as last year (13,714 across the whole of Auckland) – not because need has remained the same, but because staff are simply unable to assess any additional clients.

    Meanwhile, the closure of nearby homeless support services means the Mission is now central Auckland’s only outreach provider of day-to-day support for people experiencing homelessness.

    “The Mission’s small Homeless Outreach Team of 6 social workers have an average caseload of 25 complex clients each,” says Auckland City Missioner, Chris Farrelly. “Many of these people require daily contact and intensive care.”

    He says Mission staff are doing everything they can, but that the need is increasing and services are struggling to meet demand.

    “When families come in for an emergency food parcel, they sometimes have to wait for several hours in our draughty waiting room before someone can see them. Imagine what that’s like for an elderly person, or a parent with their young child? People don’t come here unless they have to – and they’re having to in greater and greater numbers.”

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/PO1707/S00120/auckland-city-mission-at-capacity.htm

  7. Ad 9

    John Oliver gives National and New Zealand another good long slapping:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAFTrH5mADc

    • weka 9.1

      Not sure why youtube says that’s published on 9 July, it’s been around for a while.

  8. wayne 10

    Ad,

    Who gives a damm what leftie journalist John Oliver thinks. To the extent he has an effect it will be the same as Kim Dot Com. Any criticism from Oliver will simply have New Zealanders giving him the finger, by way of their vote. New Zealanders hate condescension by some know it all foreigner.

  9. Ed 11

    This looks like a good read.

    ‘Yorkshireman Austin Mitchell lived in New Zealand for eight years while lecturing in political science. In 1972 he wrote his best-selling commentary on the New Zealand way of life, The Half-Gallon Quarter-Acre Pavlova Paradise. Now he returns to the fray with Revenge of the Rich, an outspoken opinion piece on the impact of neoliberalism on society in Britain and New Zealand, based on his popular lectures as a visiting fellow at the University of Canterbury in 2016.’

    https://t.co/ZNbG2KxD9X?amp=1

  10. Ed 12

    Bill English really is delivering for New Zealanders.

    ‘Homeless man’s park-bench death a ‘national shame.’

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11888654

  11. Drowsy M. Kram 13

    Obviously, there is an urgent NEED to oust National and ensure an independent future for NZ. However, with a sizeable minority of the voting public self-contented, and others anxious but too frightened to upset rotten apple carts, I fear Labour (and the Greens) are marching resolutely towards defeat.

    National will continue to plumb new depths but hey ho – they’re like a dirty river so full of shit already that another deBarclay here or there won’t make a difference. Their relentless mission is to make the rich much richer (where did the $$$ come from?), and damn the consequences.

    Andrew Little is genuine and, for whatever reasons, lacks broad electoral appeal. Labour’s choice of election slogan (“A fresh approach”) is timid and, unless the left do something exceptional to capture the imagination of ‘the missing million’, National’s vote will probably be slightly more than Labour’s + Green’s. Winston will be obliged to talk to National First, who will do whatever is necessary to ‘govern’.

    Given their election slogan, Labour seem to be pinning their hopes on ‘time for a change.’ And it is, WELL PAST TIME, but only if Labour can change as well, and if they can I hope they haven’t left it too late. FOR THE MANY, NOT THE FEW.

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