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Daily review 15/11/2022

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, November 15th, 2022 - 30 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

30 comments on “Daily review 15/11/2022 ”

  1. Fireblade 3

    Latest Roy Morgan Poll

    Labour/Greens 44.5%

    National/Act 44.5%.

    National 32%

    Labour 29%

    Greens 15.5%

    Act 12.5%.

    New Zealand First 3.5%

    Maori Party 3%

    The Opportunities Party 3%

    New Conservative Party 0.5%

    https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/9114-nz-national-voting-intention-october-2022

    • Back to level pegging between the left and right on this poll.

      The Greens should be happy with this result — everyone else has cause for concern.

      Apart from TPM (which dropped slightly from the previous RM poll to 3%) – there are a lot of wasted votes for minor parties well under the 5% threshold.

      However, taking that with a grain of salt, as previous RM polls appear to over-estimate minor party vote, compared to the average.

      There’s a notable drop for both major parties, compared to the other October poll results. Which may mean that there’s a lot of volatility out there – with many voters not really committed to any party at this stage.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election

      Also, it’s silly to link TPM in the results with National/ACT – they may be in opposition – but I don’t think there is any doubt which way they’d go, if it came down to a choice between left/right.

      • weka 3.1.1

        TOP would be happy too wouldn't they?

        • Belladonna 3.1.1.1

          Still well under the 5% threshold. TBH – I don't see that they have any realistic chance of getting over it. Their one hope is to score an electorate win and coat-tail other MPs in.

          • weka 3.1.1.1.1

            if one is building a political party over time for the long haul (rather than just trying to get into parliament in an election), then an increase towards 5% is a good thing.

            • Belladonna 3.1.1.1.1.1

              Yes, I was speaking in the context of the possible 2023 results.

              I don't think that any minor party has managed to get into Parliament without coat-tailing on an electorate or a high-profile current politician (thinking here: ACT, NZF, TPM, United Future, Alliance (though that one was complicated with the multiple parties involved – Anderton had to be a big factor, so both electorate seat and high-profile pollie)

              The Greens would be the possible exception. [I'm sure you know the history better than I]. They coat-tailed Anderton in on the Alliance ticket – but then stood separately at the next election, where they got 5% but also the Coromandel electorate.

              So a borderline case.

              Even then they hovered just above the 5% threshold for the next couple of elections – without the safety of an electorate seat – in what I'm sure was a very nervous time for the party leadership – before building up to a relatively 'safe' buffer.

              The problem with bringing in a result around 3.5- 4.5% is that people who voted for you feel that their vote was wasted – and are less likely to risk that again next time around.

              I think (and this is just me speculating) – that minor parties benfit (not thinking Green or ACT here – they're now mid-weight contenders) when there is a clear 'winner' in the election – and people feel safe to experiment ("I don't need to vote Labour, because they're going to win anyway, I can give TOP a chance"). The other time they benefit is when there is a strong moderate (or perceived as moderate) party (United Future or NZF) – and people can feel safe voting for them as a handbrake on the major party of choice.
              Where, I don't think minor parties benefit – is when there is a close election (as 2023 is shaping up to be) with a pretty even split between the right and left blocs. People are likely to be really concerned over throwing their vote away on a party which doesn't even get into parliament – and this resulting in the 'wrong' outcome (e.g. TOP gets 3.5%, and Labour/Green fail to beat National/ACT by 2%). In that scenario, many people vote strategically – to get the best outcome they can, rather than the perfect one they might desire.

              Of course, all bets are off, if the minor party has a good solid chance (through a deal or otherwise) at an electorate seat – in that case, every party vote will count – and people can feel confident going for the party they really want, rather than the second-best one which is likely to get in.

  2. observer 4

    Clock ticks for Luxon …

    Latest poll (Roy Morgan)

    (posted same time as Fireblade)

    If he can't pick up support for National in these times, when will he ever?

    Overall Morgan polls should be taken with a good serving of salt, especially for minor parties, but then again … there aren't any polls taken by anyone that say the public like Luxon.

    Please keep him, National. (Bet they won't).

    • Drowsy M. Kram 4.1

      Please keep him, National. (Bet they won't).

      Six leaders (English Bridges Muller Collins Luxon Willis?) in <6 years would smack of panic and desperation, so the puppeteers might decide to stick with Key’s anointed one.

      In 4 years time, Luxon will have had the same amount of parliamentary experience as honest John had when he became our least politically experienced PM in modern times.

      After all, what's the rush? Just think of how much more Luxon et al. will be able to promise they will repeal, during the 2026 general election campaign.

      • Belladonna 4.1.1

        I've no idea what National will do about retaining Luxon as leader.
        I think that they are in much the same situation (though polling slightly better) than Labour were in 2016-2017 with Little as leader. Even the departure of Key, didn't improve his leadership rating.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election#Preferred_Prime_Minister

        There are some politicians who – regardless of their merits – just fail to fire with the electorate on a personal level.

        Perhaps they will roll Luxon in favour of someone with more electorate appeal (though they'd have to be darn sure that this was the case – the Muller debacle took a lot of heart out of the NP.).

        • observer 4.1.1.1

          One difference is that Little had enough self-awareness to realize that he wasn't connecting. The Labour caucus and Ardern didn't need to force him out (and she wouldn't have).

          Luxon doesn't appear to have much self-awareness at all. He genuinely thinks he's good at this, when he so obviously isn't.

          • Belladonna 4.1.1.1.1

            I agree that Luxon shows no signs of leaving.

            However, Little had been leader of Labour in Opposition for 2 years (2015-2016) with his approval figures at roughly the same figure (low teens) for the whole of that time It was only when they dropped even further, and showed no signs of rebounding when Key left (2017) – that I think he saw the writing on the wall.

            In addition, he had Ardern, waiting in the wings, who clearly had that personal connection with the voters.

            I don't see anyone else in the NP who has a similar spark at the moment.

            So, Luxon, with approval ratings in the 20s – is probably a better bet for National, than an unknown.

            Lowish personal popularity ratings are not historically unusual for a leader of the opposition. Helen Clark polled mostly in the 20s prior to her 1999 election victory – while the Labour Party was polling considerably higher – late 30s and early 40s.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1999_New_Zealand_general_election

            I think that after the 'rockstar' leaders, Key and Ardern – we've become conditioned to expect high individual approval rates for leaders – but historically, these haven't been necessary to cement an election victory.

            • Drowsy M. Kram 4.1.1.1.1.1

              …but historically, these haven't been necessary to cement an election victory.

              As you say, voter expectations have changed. Luxon's on a very steep learning curve and as weak as a bee's knee imo. He needs a tailwind – expect rumours.

              • Mmm. I was meaning that we as commentators have been conditioned, not that the electorate has.

                Election polls have voters rating National considerably higher than Luxon – i.e. they're not put off voting for the party, because they're lukewarm about the leader.

                It will be interesting to see how that plays out in practice in 2023.

                NB: did a double-take and checked your ‘bee’s knees’ reference. Our family usage is positive. To say something is the bee’s knees means that it’s excellent or outstanding in some way. Not the meaning that I think you intended, here 😉

                • Drowsy M. Kram

                  Mmm. I was meaning that we as commentators have been conditioned, not that the electorate has.

                  Mmm, are we commentators not part of the electorate?
                  "The bee's knee" reference isn’t positive – we see what we want to see wink

                  Whereas the phrase "the bees's knees" is a Johnny-come-lately, much like Luxon as the unprecedentedly inexperienced ‘leader’ of the opposition.

                  Etymology
                  Attested since 1922, of unclear origin. There are several suggested origins, but it most likely arose in imitation of the numerous animal-related nonsense phrases popular in the 1920s such as the cat's pyjamas, cat's whiskers, cat's meow, gnat's elbow, monkey's eyebrows etc.

                  A popular folk etymology has the phrase referring to the world champion dancer Bee Jackson. Another suggestion is that the phrase is a corruption of business but this may be a back-formation. The singular bee's knee is attested from the late 18th century meaning something small or insignificant in the phrase big as a bee's knee. Also as weak as a bee's knee is attested in Ireland (1870). It is possible that the bee's knees is a deliberate inversion of this meaning but is not attested.

                  It will indeed "be interesting to see how that plays out in practice in 2023", if Luxon has staying power within National – I sincerely hope he does.

                  • Yes, I could see from the context that you weren't using 'Bee's knees' in a positive sense – I was simply pointing out that there are two, fairly contradictory, meanings. Nothing to do with perception. Simply language usage.

                    Commentators often raise issues, or draw inferences which are apparently invisible or unimportant to the general electorate.

                    A large chunk of voters are polling for National – regardless of whether or not they think Luxon would be the best PM.

                    The (observed) poll preferences don't seem to tie into the current narrative that a party needs a personally popular leader, in order to be elected.

                    If Luxon remains (and I'm not placing bets either way) – we may get to see that theory tested in 2023.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram

                      Yes, I could see from the context that you weren't using 'Bee's knees' in a positive sense – I was simply pointing out that there are two, fairly contradictory, meanings.

                      Thanks for pointing that out Belladonna, although if you had clicked on the link in my brief comment @4.1.1.1.1.1, then it might have become clear that I'm aware of the two meanings, whereas it appears that you were simply aware of one. Happy to raise awareness.

                      Commentators often raise issues, or draw inferences which are apparently invisible or unimportant to the general electorate.

                      Indeed. Whether Luxon’s unprecedented lack of political experience, and the impact of that lack of experience on his performance as ‘leader’ of the opposition, proves “unimportant to the general electorate” only time will tell. I certainly hope he remains leader of the opposition National party for the foreseeable, however long that might be.

                  • Yes. Clearly I was only aware of one.

                    Hence my comment "did a double-take and checked your ‘bee’s knees’ reference."

                    I'm surprised, that, if you were aware of two, you chose to use such an ambiguous phrase.
                    Perhaps your awareness has also been raised.

                    • Drowsy M. Kram

                      I'm surprised, that, if you were aware of two, you chose to use such an ambiguous phrase.

                      I'm surprised you're so easily surprised – hope they're not all bad.

                      Re apparent "ambiguity" of the phrase "as weak as a bee's knee" [btw that's Luxon – as weak as a bee's knee], it's in the eye of the beholder
                      wink
                      As a lefty voter, it's true that I was devastated when JuDarth's 'leadership' of the Gnats imploded a little under a year ago.

                      https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/27/the-era-of-judith-crusher-collins-ends-in-a-blaze-of-fury

                      I would have been content with her remaining 'leader' of the opposition into her dotage, but it was not to be.

                      And I’ll admit to being worried when Chris, honest John's anoited one, was elevated to leader barely a year after entering Parliament.

                      In recent months, however, my worries have flown – a lesser millstone for the Gnats Chris be may, but a millstone nevertheless. Couldn’t have said this about JuDarth, but Chris being as weak as a bee's knee makes him the dog's bollocks – just the mutt's nuts, imho.

                • Molly

                  Bee's knees is used similarly in our family.

                  (As a child, I conflated it with "busy as a bee" and concluded that for a busy bee good knees would be incredibly important. Hence, bees knees was associated with being useful, and perfectly fit for purpose)

                  Now that my knees are not-as-fit-for-purpose, I wouldn't mind a couple of bees' knees knees. Please. wink

                  • Drowsy M. Kram

                    Don't know about Luxi's knees, but as a politician he's "as weak as a bee's knee" and daft as a brush, imho. He'll be sick as a parrot that he's failed to fire with the electorate – I sincerely hope cLux hangs in there.

                    • Molly

                      I clicked your “parrot” link somehow expecting the Dead Parrot sketch from Monty Python, but found it circled back to a relevant but not comedic comment about sick parrots.

                      Which is all good, but just not funny.

                      For those, who like me, now want some comedic relief:

                  • Thanks Molly for the confirmation that bees knees isn't just local to my family – but is much wider throughout NZ.

  3. This kind of soundbite really doesn't do Little, or the government any favours:

    Despite the concerns, Little said EDs are “totally safe”.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/130480284/eds-totally-safe-despite-ballooning-wait-times-minister-says

    It's not believable: in the light of media reports of deaths caused due to excessive wait times; and, from the misery which results in extended wait times for seriously unwell people in an environment which is not designed for long-term care.

    It quite simply makes him look out of touch with the issue and with reality.

  4. joe90 6

    Fools and their money.

    Zurich (AFP) – Roughly three-quarters of people who have bought bitcoin have lost money according to a study published Monday as the cryptocurrency sector reels from the collapse of a major exchange that has sapped confidence.

    https://www.rfi.fr/en/business-and-tech/20221114-three-out-of-four-bitcoin-investors-have-lost-money-study

    • SPC 6.1

      It has been like a housing market, but despite periodic corrections, there are still yet more people to buy in and inflate the price (of land/netcoin).

      Similarly the share market goes up because of the baby boomer saving for retirement, this can only be sustained by replacement investment from offshore/or migrants.

      The "food" pyramid has the "carnivore" at the top for a reason. The herd is the prey.

      But each round of musical chairs is one closer to the Titanic market collapse.

      And not every rose survives. Some get burnt.

      Then one could be a sub contractor on a Trump development, or invest in Truth Social.

  5. SPC 7

    Some farmer employs 100 people each year to harvest lettuces. He ploughed back 300,000 lettuce heads recently because of a lack of workers.

    • Shanreagh 7.1

      If there is the technology available then perhaps farmers could look at buying one of these, or collectively (heaven forbid!)

      I saw the article and thought here is a farmer heavily involved in BAU, cross fingers and the notion that plant it and they will come.

      The article is a modest look at how moving ahead can help the country. In a tight employment situation rather than hoping that workers will magically appear why not cut our cloth to reflect the ability to hire workers within NZ without having to resort to immigration. We could allow a modest number of RSE workers for the hard to mechanise crop harvesting and to recognise NZ's relationship with the Pacific countries they come from.

      I'd love to read of a farmer in this situation, even though borne of short-sightedness, make the crop available for the likes of those supporting community pantries, food boxes……..

      I some how think that people would work for nothing, supervised but working hours to suit if the produce was gathered for needy people.

      PS perhaps the farmer could also look at the type of lettuce crop. I have noticed a trend away, at least in the two supermarkets I go to, from lettuce heads and more towards the leaf crop shown in the harvesting machine.

      • SPC 7.1.1

        In dairy farming there are milking machines that identify the milk production of each cow. It gives the farmer better information and the cows wander in for milking all by themselves (and seem to prefer this, easier for them and takes less time).

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