Purposely unleash COVID into the wider (90% vaccinated) population in a controlled manner (includes traffic light system for ongoing management) to infect populations with real COVID potentially to improve immunity of the vaccinated making the overall population more resilient.
Possible consequences of strategy
Benefits:
NZ Inc more resilience to fight the pandemic
Reduce impact on health system
Improve economic outcome
Improve wellness of population due to allowing ‘normal’ life to resume
Potentially Reduce need for a 3rd vaccination
Potentially increased immunity via combination vaccination and natural infection
Open international boarders
Dis-benefits
Vulnerable people at greater risk due to stealth COVID spread
Increase in illness and or deaths
Greater strain on health system
Potentially future lock downs over and above traffic light control (also see Sweden, Norway, Denmark now putting restrictions in place)
3rd vaccination required for vaccinated
It will be interesting to see how the competing benefits / dis benefits will sum up on the ledger of life
Have we ensured testing and controls in place for the vulnerable around NZ INC are enough?
Good luck NZInc
One question remains: Is it now still the pandemic of the unvaccinated?
“RNZ:
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
The government's modelling expects up to 50 percent of the Covid-19 cases could be in vaccinated people, according to a Cabinet paper from 15 November. That is with vaccination rates of 90 percent, of which Auckland is above.
Another 25 percent of cases could be in under 12 year olds, the paper said.
This means around 75 percent of Covid-19 cases could be carried across the border by those not needing to be tested in order to leave.”
There were early study reports out of south africia yesterday.
Massively reduces the probability of going to hospital with ormicron compared to not having a double vax ~70% better.
Significantly reduces the probability of becoming symptomatic to the sniffles and voughing stage after you get it – about ~33%
Doesn't change the probability of getting covid-19 – just as it didn't for alpha, beta or delta. Everyone has about a 100% probility of getting each covid-19 variant eventually.
Much better off having the single, double or triple vax than not having a vaccination. Especially as you can get any other variant after having survived any other one… there is no herd immunity.
These are vaccines pushed out in a couple of years. It usually takes decades or even centuries to develop to the point of being sterilising vaccines – ones that massively reduce the probability of infection.
Basically if you are that into wanting miracle cures – then perhaps you should try prayer. Whining to a god appears to have worked miracles in previous pandemics by filling empty mass graves.
I'll take my percentages of advantage where they are more reliable and documented.
Much better off having the single, double or triple vax than not having a vaccination. Especially as you can get any other variant after having survived any other one… there is no herd immunity.
Huh, that's a new bit of information. So chances of getting the same variant is reduced to varying degrees (and for varying periods of time) if one has already had it. But are the chances reduced for other variants, or one can easily get another variant?
I'd have to look it up, but late last year there were early reports of people in the UK who'd had alpha, then getting beta. The same kinds of reports came from other regions. And for delta after having other variants as well.
There was at least one US study earlier this year that looked at the probabilities of severity of a reinfection from last years variants that in part allowed for the underlying probabilities of severity. That indicated that previous infection partially reduced the risk of severity. But that was presumably after getting enough viral load to overwhelm existing immune responses to the point where people were symptomatic…
Why, there has been quite a lot of work that shows having had a infection strongly reduces the probability of symptomatic reinfection by another variant (pre-delta). As does vaccination.
However as far as I am aware there has been little to no research that shows pre-infection strongly reduces re-infection – probably because the early detection is based on the duration of viral load. The early immune responses from vaccinations or previous infection tend to reduce the time of viral shedding – which reduces the detection period.
Looking at b-cell or t-cells that persist after infections doesn't help because you can't tell for sure which variant they were induced by.
But are the chances reduced for other variants, or one can easily get another variant?
From my understanding, all you can say is that the chance of being symptomatic by a reinfection or a break through by a variant over a vaccinated are reduced markedly. But they were never 100%. With Pfizer they were ~90%+ for reinfection by delta. With omnicron, it is looking like ~70%. There was and still is a lot of dispute over the same figures for reinfection – but it is generally estimated to be lower or similar – but more variable.
A reinfection by a variant that doesn't trigger the learned immediate immune responses increases the probability of becoming symptomatic because the viral load gets higher earlier. However the slower immune responses from previous infection or vaccination tend to limit the severity.
That appears to be what is happening with omnicron. Compared to delta… High infection and reinfection rates. High rates of early symptoms. Less probability of severe symptoms.
…my point was Ormicon seems so infectious that once here there will be no slowing it down vaccination or not…
That is obvious – also not my point. It is the nature of infectious diseases to spread. It is the same with Delta, Beta, and Alpha. All that changes is the rate of infection, the morbidity, and the severe consequences between variants.
In my view both statements are duplicitous lies by omission. Stop or slow what? The vaccines were never intended to stop infection. The vaccines are designed for and are still offering significiant protection against the more severe consequences of getting infected or even of just mild symptoms. If that wasn’t your point – then I strongly suggest that you need to review how you word your statements.
The current covid-19 vaccines aren’t intended to slow spread. They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction). That they often reduce the period of shedding viral load is a fortuitous by-product. Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial. Those that bothered to report that trait them at all.
The current vaccines were intended to reduce the incidence of significiant symptoms leading to hospitalisations, implicitly long covid and death. Outside of the ranks of wishful thinkers and mystics and believers in herd immunity from endemic diseases, I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
My point was that your wishful ‘thinking’ of the vaccines preventing or limiting spread was completely wrong. There hasn’t been a sterilising vaccine or treatment produced for covid-19 yet. That will be a task that will probably take decades.
The wide use of the vaccines will prevent health systems collapsing because less people will get sick enough to chew of health resources. That means that some of the social measures like lockdowns, masks, international travel, social distancing, etc can be reduced.
Your original point was
Ormicron makes alot of that moot as it seems a double vax doesnt really stop it at all…
The problem with omnicron is that its spread rate, ability to reinfect, and ability to breakthrough infect vaccinated will increase hospital loads through volume – which is what you referred to.
However being vaccinated still reduces the risk to any one person of getting severe consequences from being infected compared to the risk of the unvaccinated.
Your second statement was…
Um… my point was Ormicon seems so infectious that once here there will be no slowing it down vaccination or not…
The vaccines were never intended to stop infection.
They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction
Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial.
I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
So why the mandates?
Why are those of us who chose not to partake of these non sterilizing 'vaccines' which don't prevent spread now out of work, unable to go camping, unable to go to a restaurant, unable to participate to the fullest in everyday life?
Why do those who have been double vaccinated need to be kept safe from those of us who haven't been?
If you aren't vaccinated, the probability of being infected and becoming symptomatic is higher than for the vaccinated.
The probability of the unvaccinated becoming hospitalised is far far higher than for the vaccinated. The probability of dying is higher again.
While the vaccinated are a bit less likely to infect others (shorter viral shedding periods) – that isn't what the vaccines were designed or tested for. But there are way more vaccinated than unvaccinated, therefore the probability of an unvaccinated person being infected by someone who is vaccinated is higher.
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of.
Or as I'd state it in my rough way – I'd hate to unintentionally kill someone just because they were daft or ignorant enough to offload their risk on to me. Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason.
Both are reasons to make sure that I am separated from people of shedding risk fro arbitrary reasons of to anyone who carefully reduces their risk. It is exactly the same logic as is used in trying to reduce public drunkenness, drunken driving, people waving weapons around and firing them off without thinking about unforeseen consequences, people dropping poisons into public waterways etc etc
Exactly how many times do I have to explain this to you?
Severity of illness less for vaccinated than unvaccinated. Yup. Chances of winding up in hospital or dying, for people with not too many years under their belt and with no co-morbidities, pretty minimal – whether vaccinated or not.
Vaccination makes no discernible difference in how contagious a person is. (Faster shedding equates to being more infectious but for a shorter timespan than an unvaccinated person)
Seems that excess all cause mortality rates spike when vaccine rollouts commence…
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of. ?
Hang on, I thought it was the unvaccinated chewing up the medical resources? I guess excluding the minority that are unvaccinated just might prevent a few catching Te Virus from a vaccinated person…?
Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason. ?
But you have done the right thing and had both your shots and therefore your risk of symptomatic infection is really low and since the majority of the folks around you are also double jabbed then surely the risk to you from the small number of unjabbed in your vicinity is negligible?
I'm not sure how vaccination status relates to being tested (or not)?
Are you saying the unjabbed are less likely to be tested than the jabbed? Have you proof of this? From what I am hearing the jabbed don't get tested because they truly believe the Pfizer Product prevents infection. "No, its ok it's only a cold because I'm vaccinated."
And as for risk…are you keeping up with the latest on the risk of heart damage from the mRNA products? Because the trumpeted risk of less than one person in a million people who have had Comirnaty vaccine in the European Union is now reported as being much, much higher.
. In Israel, where only BNT162b2 vaccines were used following the
product monograph with a 21 day inter-dose interval, the rate of myocarditis (using the BC definition)
following dose two among males 16-19 was 150 per 1,000,000 between December 2020 and May 2021,
although this time period encompassed both active and passive surveillance periods. 2 The rate of
myocarditis/pericarditis among males aged 12-17 who received two doses of BNT162b2 at an interval of
30 days or less in Ontario was similar at 159.7 per million doses. In the United Kingdom (UK), the
reporting rate for myocarditis after both first and second doses across all ages was estimated at 10 per
million doses of BNT162b2
As yet I have seen no update from our enormously efficient Ministry of Health that indicates they are actually keeping up. They will, when the true picture emerges of the harms done….. claim what? "We didn't know." ?
You might think it is worth the risk of being in that 10 in 1000000 group of all ages who suffer heart damage from the vaccine…being a mature person with a bit of a dodgy ticker anyway…but do you really believe that a young man with a strong, healthy heart should be mandated to take a product that could put him into the 94.5 or 159 cases per 1000000 doses risk category? (In case you're not keeping up…that is a little more than the 6 in a million doses Pertousis-Harris quotes here.)
Because that's what happening here in New Zealand. And the young people are at low to no risk from Covid..so forcing the vaccine on them is for what purpose?
The Pfizer Product is not safe. It is not effective other than probably lowering the risk of severe disease in some people for a short while.
It most definitely does not warrant being forced on everyone. Or anyone.
And the young people are at low to no risk from Covid..so forcing the vaccine on them is for what purpose?
Young Kiwis are having te vaccine forced on them? Ghastly! Hope Neve gets an exemption. Imagine using “young people” to fight your battles.
The Pfizer Product is not safe. It is not effective other than probably lowering the risk of severe disease in some people for a short while.
The "Pfizer product" is safe (compare, for example, the 320 Kiwis who died on NZ roads in 2020 – "Make it click"), and effective. It certainly (not "probably") lowers the risk of death or severe distress due to Covid-19 infection. Lest we forget, according to Prof. Benn (thanks for that link) vaccines are "the largest untapped resource for improving health globally", and 8.55 billion doses of vaccines against Covid-19 have been administered worldwide.
It most definitely does not warrant being forced on everyone. Or anyone.
Agree 100% – I wasn't prepared to deal with the consequences of choosing not to get jabbed (including the potential health consequences of being unvaccinated if/when I'm infected with Covid-19), but good luck to the few hardy and/or brave individuals who are.
Aotearoa NZ has one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates in the world (more than 200 times lower than the UK and US, and at least 100 times lower than Sweden, Ireland and Germany) – we really don't know how lucky we are!
How awful it would have been if those 48 tragic NZ Covid deaths had been 4800, or 9600. Thanks to the team's high Covid-19 vaccination rates (~90% of those eligible), that's now unlikely – something to be grateful for, you would think.
The government is totally dismissing and denying that there are any adverse effects from the Pfizer Product. Complete denial.
And if you took the time to check out the paper from Ontario regarding myo and pericarditis you might just gain an insight into why it is that the vax rates are so low in the US. Clue…Moderna was heavily pushed, and a combination of Pfizer and Moderna. The rates are eye watering.
As I have asked many times…if Covid is so totally terrifying and the bodies were piling up hither and thither and there were safe and effective vaccines to stem the tide of death don't you think everyone would be trampling over each over to get a shot? They were…they they had to be cajoled, threatened, mandated.
For heaven's sake…instead of pushing slogans….think about why so many worldwide are 'vaccine' hesitant.
The government is totally dismissing and denying that there are any adverse effects from the Pfizer Product. Complete denial.
Your medsafe.govt.nz link details many "adverse effects", from common and mild, to rare and serious. Your "dismissing and denying" stance rather puts you in the denial camp – "complete denial", imho.
Let’s agree to disagree about the benefits and risks associated with te vaccine – glad I got it, feel safer for it, but that’s just me. If it’s any consolation, I support your choice not to get Pfizered, and wish you well.
The current covid-19 vaccines aren’t intended to slow spread. They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction). That they often reduce the period of shedding viral load is a fortuitous by-product. Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial. Those that bothered to report that trait them at all.
If the vaccine reduces the chances of getting covid, then isn't slowing spread a secondary benefit because the number of people getting covid (and thus spreading it) is reduced?
Purposely unleash COVID into the wider (90% vaccinated) population in a controlled manner (includes traffic light system for ongoing management) to infect populations with real COVID potentially to improve immunity of the vaccinated making the overall population more resilient.
For the Labour caucus to have approved that strategy there would need to be a document trail that includes the MoH and the Director General of Health. Do you think that it's more likely that,
a) such a paper trail exists and is being kept hidden but could be leaked at any time
or
b) Labour really are following public health advice and placing that in the context of managing the economy (in its neoliberal way).
Afaik there's not good evidence yet that herd immunity from infection is possible/useful. Further, delta is dangerous. Omicron or a later variant might change that but at the moment I don't think what you are suggesting would work.
I think it's much more likely that Labour are doing the best they can stuck between the delta rock and the economy hard place (and the restless population other hard place)
It's clear that elimination from hard lock downs is no longer possible.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Everyone on the planet is having to make this up as we go along. Novel virus, there is still a lot we don't know, especially how this is going to play out over time. Incredibly hard to govern under those conditions including making educated decisions based on things we just don't know.
If you can think of a better way forward other than hard lock downs, I'd like to hear that. Myself, I think they should keep the international border closed to people other than returning Kiwis. I think people wanting to come and go from NZ should be in two week MiQ. And we wait to see what Omicron does before opening the borders more than that. The Traffic Light systems seems as good a plan as any for internally, except for the specific problems that some communities face eg Māori in some areas. That needs addressing as a matter of urgency.
…begrudging late funding for community-led vax efforts …
And a good deal of that funding has gone towards various 'incentives' in the form of cash cards and vouchers and meat packs. Free sausage sizzles and barbies and the like. A little patronising…no?
It says something that these are the bribes required to get needles in the arms of the section of our community that rides low on every socio-economic marker. At least that is how it has largely played out up here in the FFN. You'd think that the endless 'mate korona' messaging and recollections of the dreadful toll of the Spanish Flu would have been sufficient to get the sleeves rolled up.
I hazard that there would have been more willing buy in had successive governments won the trust of whanau in Te Tai Tokerau by addressing more of the deeper deprivation issues. Funding for housing and $$$ for stemming the shit tide at Northland Base Hospital is a little late.
And despite the $$$…we're still in the naughty corner, and a quick cruise around the vax tents in Kaitaia today saw very bored looking workers.
it's not skin colour (there are Māori who look white), it's ethnicity, because in NZ and the way we organise society Māori ethnicity is related to a range of risks that Pākehā don't have as a class.
It's also possible that Māori have vulnerabilities related to genetics too (haven't seen any discussion of this but we know that they were particularly vulnerable to new viral infections during colonisation).
Gobsmaking to have to explain this on a labour movement blog to lefties.
You're the one that's hung up on race Red, and that's nothing to do with what I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
If there is a specific medical argument to be made then make it. But if it's just 'subjugated' – then no.
The sooner we stop dividing each other up and setting everyone against each other on stupid spurious grounds, the more likely we are to function as a healthy society.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Someone made that statement on another international site the other day and was challenged. No one could recall at what point it was "on the cards" that more than two doses would be needed, but it was generally agreed that it was not "always".
Can you pinpoint where you became certain that boosters would be needed? My recollection is that it was very much a two dose deal with Pfizer. The booster/3rd dose was initially only for immunosupressed./compromised. As it eventuated that the Pfizer Product was largely useless after 6 months, (Israel…) rolled out boosters.
But I don't recall it was always going to be third shots or boosters.
Might be a semantic difference. By on the cards I meant there was always a chance that the two shots would be insufficient. Pretty sure I’ve been saying right from the start that I was doubtful that there would be a silver bullet vaccine. I remember conversations last year with science-is-god people, who had a huge amount of faith in medical science to solve covid.
it’s a fair question though. Haven’t they know since trials though that there is waning immunity? And of course, the perceived need for booster shots is as much about how the pandemic is playing out. I honestly don’t think anyone can predict what’s going to happen, am sceptical of people who try and assert predictions, and pay more attention to people saying this is the state of play and based on that this is what I think is most likely to happen.
I wouldn’t want to be in government or high up in MoH trying to make major decisions under such circumstances.
'Kicked us in the ass': Harawira says last-minute police decision to vet checkpoint members means half stood down
Former Māori Party MP Hone Harawira is upset at the police, claiming they vetted members of his iwi-led checkpoint group Tai Tokerau Border Control ahead of the Northland boundary coming into effect.
Harawira told RNZ's Morning Report the vetting happened at the last minute, saying it "really kicked us in the ass".
"Our people, over the last 18-20 months, have included bus drivers, gang members, doctors, lawyers, mothers, teachers – all sorts of people. Now, all of a sudden at the last minute, it got dropped on us that everyone had to be vetted."
Hone Harawira gets the legislation he wants rushed through under urgency last week, gets the checkpoints he whined about, gets the negative proof just today of a small handful of non-double vaxxers trying to enter out of tens of thousands, and then tries to tell off the Police for not letting gang members pull over cars and interrogate the public.
His gang members can fuck off back to the holes they came from or at very least concentrate their efforts on the morons in the far north causng the issue in the first place: the unvaccinated.
The roadblocks will stop shortly. Good job.
Hone Harawira will fade from TV profile again. Good job.
Tru dat, he a busy bro for da right reasons, but he also likes to ensure he stays in da news. Not one to hide his light under a bushell. Don’t make no sense having gang members on the checkpoints.
Gang members have developed bad habits of organising criminal activity, shooting at police, & at other gang members, & too many like to monster & intimidate people & other gangs. Best thing is to at least vet the buggers for any with a track record of these propensities.
Hone knows that. He’s keeping his profile high with nga iwi & nga Māori elsewhere, like a modern day Hone Heke. Imo.
Gangs are growing where are they going to live ,They all can't live in your place of work PR.
No govt has stopped gangs they are a symtom of our selfish society.
When you have look at the state inquiry into child abuse by the Church and State the number of gang members especially gang leaders created from that level of sexual , violent abuse ,neglect neglect of education neglect of a safe environment,neglect of love.
You can see why criminal gangs prolificate with members who have no empathy or ability to change nasty intergenerational dysfunction.
The dept of corrections is a joke just a temporary warehouse where criminals learn to be better criminals the nastier criminal you are gives a promotion in the hierarchy .prisons are the Head Office of the gangs.
Don't know. There may be some government koha involved. There may be some kind of authorisation by the police required to give legal power to these individuals to stop cars and demand documents or evidence from the occupants.
Luxon complaining on One news that Grant just wants to spend money, after Grant said health needs a lot more money spent on it. “ We’re not wasting money on the health system “ has a real vote winning ring to it!
The people of the Freedom and Choice group and the NZ Outdoors Party are entitled to their particular beliefs. Sort of like people are entitled to their mental health problems.
When it ends in things like this?
"A Covid-19 testing station in Richmond, near Nelson, has been closed indefinitely after abuse of staff reached unsafe levels.
Police were called to the testing site at the Richmond Showgrounds on Sunday after staff were subjected to verbal attacks from a small group of people who did not believe Covid was a threat, Nelson Bays Primary Health general manager Charlotte Etheridge said."
A headline claiming the police are going to lose at least 600 frontline police officers due to the decision to mandate staff vaccinations turns out to be the claim of one anonymous unvaccinated police officer. Near the bottom you get to find out the Commissioner plus a few others high rankers have rejected the claim outright:
The Government will be announcing a new “Emissions Reduction Plan” alongside the 2022 Budget which will lay out how emissions will be cut across the economy. It will allocate money to the newly-created Climate Emergency Response Fund in order to meet its new obligations.
It's local democracy vs national democracy. I counted 12 mayors in the protest.
"We don't all have green slime, and frogs coming out of our taps," Manawatū District Council Mayor Helen Worboys said today.
mayors and allies in the Communities 4 Local Democracy coalition said the Government tried ramming through water reforms against the wishes and interests of local communities.
The mayors outside Parliament said Communities 4 Local Democracy represented 24 councils and more than 1.4 million people.
So the protestors represent less than a quarter of the nation.
Not all mayor's go to protests I think you will find that most mayor's are against the mandate.
Only a few green mayor's are to the fore.
Like Aron Hawkins Dunedin but he will face a public backlash as Dunedin rate payers who have forked out $100's of millions to modernize and upgrade sewage and potable water will end up paying for Auckland and Wellington's and many other municipalities.While paying $100's of millions of debt borrowed to fix Dunedin.
Every time I read of opposition to 3 waters, opponents focus on water going in, a little quieter about the dead creeks, rivers and lakes around the motu.
I was about to ask you, if you have some time over the holidays (😛), can you please fix the phone site so we comment and track replies on the same version (I prefer the desktop, but either would be fine). Atm I have to swap both versions as it's not possible to comment from the desktop one, and the mobile one doesn't have the Replies list and is generally harder to follow.
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Patrick Reynolds is deputy chair of the Auckland City Centre Advisory Panel and a director of Greater Auckland In 2003, after much argument, including the election of a Mayor in 2001 who ran on stopping it, Britomart train station in downtown Auckland opened. A mere 1km twin track terminating branch ...
For the first time in a decade, a New Zealand Prime Minister is heading to the Middle East. The trip is more than just a courtesy call. New Zealand PMs frequently change planes in Dubai en route to destinations elsewhere. But Christopher Luxon’s visit to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, January 5, 2025 thru Sat, January 11, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
The decade between 1952 and the early 1960s was the peak period for the style of music we now call doo wop, after which it got dissolved into soul music, girl groups, and within pop music in general. Basically, doo wop was a form of small group harmonising with a ...
The future teaches you to be aloneThe present to be afraid and coldSo if I can shoot rabbits, then I can shoot fascists…And if you tolerate thisThen your children will be nextSongwriters: James Dean Bradfield / Sean Anthony Moore / Nicholas Allen Jones.Do you remember at school, studying the rise ...
When National won the New Zealand election in 2023, one of the first to congratulate Luxon was tech-billionaire and entrepreneur extraordinaire Elon Musk.And last year, after Luxon posted a video about a trip to Malaysia, Musk came forward again to heap praise on Christopher:So it was perhaps par for the ...
Hi,Today’s Webworm features a new short film from documentary maker Giorgio Angelini. It’s about Luigi Mangione — but it’s also, really, about everything in America right now.Bear with me.Shortly after I sent out my last missive from the fires on Wednesday, one broke out a little too close to home ...
So soon just after you've goneMy senses sharpenBut it always takes so damn longBefore I feel how much my eyes have darkenedFear hangs in a plane of gun smokeDrifting in our roomSo easy to disturb, with a thought, with a whisperWith a careless memorySongwriters: Andy Taylor / John Taylor / ...
Can we trust the Trump cabinet to act in the public interest?Nine of Trump’s closest advisers are billionaires. Their total net worth is in excess of $US375b (providing there is not a share-market crash). In contrast, the total net worth of Trump’s first Cabinet was about $6b. (Joe Biden’s Cabinet ...
Welcome back to our weekly roundup. We hope you had a good break (if you had one). Here’s a few of the stories that caught our attention over the last few weeks. This holiday period on Greater Auckland Since our last roundup we’ve: Taken a look back at ...
Sometimes I feel like I don't have a partnerSometimes I feel like my only friendIs the city I live in, The City of AngelsLonely as I am together we crySong: Anthony Kiedis, Chad Smith, Flea, John Frusciante.A home is engulfed in flames during the Eaton fire in the Altadena area. ...
Open access notablesLarge emissions of CO2 and CH4 due to active-layer warming in Arctic tundra, Torn et al., Nature Communications:Climate warming may accelerate decomposition of Arctic soil carbon, but few controlled experiments have manipulated the entire active layer. To determine surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide and ...
It's election year for Wellington City Council and for the Regional Council. What have the progressive councillors achieved over the last couple of years. What were the blocks and failures? What's with the targeting of the mayor and city council by the Post and by central government? Why does the ...
Over the holidays, there was a rising tide of calls for people to submit on National's repulsive, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill, along with a wave of advice and examples of what to say. And it looks like people rose to the occasion, with over 300,000 ...
The lie is my expenseThe scope of my desireThe Party blessed me with its futureAnd I protect it with fireI am the Nina The Pinta The Santa MariaThe noose and the rapistAnd the fields overseerThe agents of orangeThe priests of HiroshimaThe cost of my desire…Sleep now in the fireSongwriters: Brad ...
This is a re-post from the Climate BrinkGlobal surface temperatures have risen around 1.3C since the preindustrial (1850-1900) period as a result of human activity.1 However, this aggregate number masks a lot of underlying factors that contribute to global surface temperature changes over time.These include CO2, which is the primary ...
There are times when movement around us seems to slow down. And the faster things get, the slower it all appears.And so it is with the whirlwind of early year political activity.They are harbingers for what is to come:Video: Wayne Wright Jnr, funder of Sean Plunket, talk growing power and ...
Hi,Right now the power is out, so I’m just relying on the laptop battery and tethering to my phone’s 5G which is dropping in and out. We’ll see how we go.First up — I’m fine. I can’t see any flames out the window. I live in the greater Hollywood area ...
2024 was a tough year for working Kiwis. But together we’ve been able to fight back for a just and fair New Zealand and in 2025 we need to keep standing up for what’s right and having our voices heard. That starts with our Mood of the Workforce Survey. It’s your ...
Time is never time at allYou can never ever leaveWithout leaving a piece of youthAnd our lives are forever changedWe will never be the sameThe more you change, the less you feelSongwriter: William Patrick Corgan.Babinden - Baba’s DayToday, January 8th, 2025, is Babinden, “The Day of the baba” or “The ...
..I/We wish to make the following comments:I oppose the Treaty Principles Bill."5. Act binds the CrownThis Act binds the Crown."How does this Act "bind the Crown" when Te Tiriti o Waitangi, which the Act refers to, has been violated by the Crown on numerous occassions, resulting in massive loss of ...
Everything is good and brownI'm here againWith a sunshine smile upon my faceMy friends are close at handAnd all my inhibitions have disappeared without a traceI'm glad, oh, that I found oohSomebody who I can rely onSongwriter: Jay KayGood morning, all you lovely people. Today, I’ve got nothing except a ...
Welcome to 2025. After wrapping up 2024, here’s a look at some of the things we can expect to see this year along with a few predictions. Council and Elections Elections One of the biggest things this year will be local body elections in October. Will Mayor Wayne Brown ...
Canadians can take a while to get angry – but when they finally do, watch out. Canada has been falling out of love with Justin Trudeau for years, and his exit has to be the least surprising news event of the New Year. On recent polling, Trudeau’s Liberal party has ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections Much like 2023, many climate and energy records were broken in 2024. It was Earth’s hottest year on record by a wide margin, breaking the previous record that was set just last year by an even larger margin. Human-caused climate-warming pollution and ...
Submissions on National's racist, white supremacist Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi Bill are due tomorrow! So today, after a good long holiday from all that bullshit, I finally got my shit together to submit on it. As I noted here, people should write their own submissions in their own ...
Ooh, baby (ooh, baby)It's making me crazy (it's making me crazy)Every time I look around (look around)Every time I look around (every time I look around)Every time I look aroundIt's in my faceSongwriters: Alan Leo Jansson / Paul Lawrence L. Fuemana.Today, I’ll be talking about rich, middle-aged men who’ve made ...
A listing of 26 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 29, 2024 thru Sat, January 4, 2025. This week's roundup is again published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, so if ...
Hi,The thing that stood out at me while shopping for Christmas presents in New Zealand was how hard it was to avoid Zuru products. Toy manufacturer Zuru is a bit like Netflix, in that it has so much data on what people want they can flood the market with so ...
And when a child is born into this worldIt has no conceptOf the tone of skin it's living inAnd there's a million voicesAnd there's a million voicesTo tell you what you should be thinkingSong by Neneh Cherry and Youssou N'Dour.The moment you see that face, you can hear her voice; ...
While we may not always have quality political leadership, a couple of recently published autobiographies indicate sometimes we strike it lucky. When ranking our prime ministers, retired professor of history Erik Olssen commented that ‘neither Holland nor Nash was especially effective as prime minister – even his private secretary thought ...
Baby, be the class clownI'll be the beauty queen in tearsIt's a new art form, showin' people how little we care (yeah)We're so happy, even when we're smilin' out of fearLet's go down to the tennis court and talk it up like, yeah (yeah)Songwriters: Joel Little / Ella Yelich O ...
Open access notables Why Misinformation Must Not Be Ignored, Ecker et al., American Psychologist:Recent academic debate has seen the emergence of the claim that misinformation is not a significant societal problem. We argue that the arguments used to support this minimizing position are flawed, particularly if interpreted (e.g., by policymakers or the public) as suggesting ...
What I’ve Been Doing: I buried a close family member.What I’ve Been Watching: Andor, Jack Reacher, Xmas movies.What I’ve Been Reflecting On: The Usefulness of Writing and the Worthiness of Doing So — especially as things become more transparent on their own.I also hate competing on any day, and if ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by John Wihbey. A version of this article first appeared on Yale Climate Connections on Nov. 11, 2008. (Image credits: The White House, Jonathan Cutrer / CC BY 2.0; President Jimmy Carter, Trikosko/Library of Congress; Solar dedication, Bill Fitz-Patrick / Jimmy Carter Library; Solar ...
Morena folks,We’re having a good break, recharging the batteries. Hope you’re enjoying the holiday period. I’m not feeling terribly inspired by much at the moment, I’m afraid—not from a writing point of view, anyway.So, today, we’re travelling back in time. You’ll have to imagine the wavy lines and sci-fi sound ...
Completed reads for 2024: Oration on the Dignity of Man, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola A Platonic Discourse Upon Love, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola Of Being and Unity, by Giovanni Pico della Mirandola The Life of Pico della Mirandola, by Giovanni Francesco Pico Three Letters Written by Pico ...
Welcome to 2025, Aotearoa. Well… what can one really say? 2024 was a story of a bad beginning, an infernal middle and an indescribably farcical end. But to chart a course for a real future, it does pay to know where we’ve been… so we know where we need ...
Welcome to the official half-way point of the 2020s. Anyway, as per my New Years tradition, here’s where A Phuulish Fellow’s blog traffic came from in 2024: United States United Kingdom New Zealand Canada Sweden Australia Germany Spain Brazil Finland The top four are the same as 2023, ...
Completed reads for December: Be A Wolf!, by Brian Strickland The Magic Flute [libretto], by Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart and Emanuel Schikaneder The Invisible Eye, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Owl’s Ear, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Waters of Death, by Erckmann-Chatrian The Spider, by Hanns Heinz Ewers Who Knows?, by Guy de Maupassant ...
Well, it’s the last day of the year, so it’s time for a quick wrap-up of the most important things that happened in 2024 for urbanism and transport in our city. A huge thank you to everyone who has visited the blog and supported us in our mission to make ...
Leave your office, run past your funeralLeave your home, car, leave your pulpitJoin us in the streets where weJoin us in the streets where weDon't belong, don't belongHere under the starsThrowing light…Song: Jeffery BuckleyToday, I’ll discuss the standout politicians of the last 12 months. Each party will receive three awards, ...
Hi,A lot’s happened this year in the world of Webworm, and as 2024 comes to an end I thought I’d look back at a few of the things that popped. Maybe you missed them, or you might want to revisit some of these essay and podcast episodes over your break ...
Hi,I wanted to share this piece by film editor Dan Kircher about what cinema has been up to in 2024.Dan edited my documentary Mister Organ, as well as this year’s excellent crowd-pleasing Bookworm.Dan adores movies. He gets the language of cinema, he knows what he loves, and writes accordingly. And ...
Without delving into personal details but in order to give readers a sense of the year that was, I thought I would offer the study in contrasts that are Xmas 2023 and Xmas 2024: Xmas 2023 in Starship Children’s Hospital (after third of four surgeries). Even opening presents was an ...
Heavy disclaimer: Alpha/beta/omega dynamics is a popular trope that’s used in a wide range of stories and my thoughts on it do not apply to all cases. I’m most familiar with it through the lens of male-focused fanfic, typically m/m but sometimes also featuring m/f and that’s the situation I’m ...
Hi,Webworm has been pretty heavy this year — mainly because the world is pretty heavy. But as we sprint (or limp, you choose) through the final days of 2024, I wanted to keep Webworm a little lighter.So today I wanted to look at one of the biggest and weirdest elements ...
A listing of 23 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, December 22, 2024 thru Sat, December 28, 2024. This week's roundup is the second one published soleley by category. We are still interested in feedback to hone the categorization, ...
The Green Party has welcomed the provisional ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, and reiterated its call for New Zealand to push for an end to the unlawful occupation of Palestine. ...
The Green Party welcomes the extension of the deadline for Treaty Principles Bill submissions but continues to call on the Government to abandon the Bill. ...
Complaints about disruptive behaviour now handled in around 13 days (down from around 60 days a year ago) 553 Section 55A notices issued by Kāinga Ora since July 2024, up from 41 issued during the same period in the previous year. Of that 553, first notices made up around 83 ...
The time it takes to process building determinations has improved significantly over the last year which means fewer delays in homes being built, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “New Zealand has a persistent shortage of houses. Making it easier and quicker for new homes to be built will ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is pleased to announce the annual list of New Zealand’s most popular baby names for 2024. “For the second consecutive year, Noah has claimed the top spot for boys with 250 babies sharing the name, while Isla has returned to the most popular ...
Work is set to get underway on a new bus station at Westgate this week. A contract has been awarded to HEB Construction to start a package of enabling works to get the site ready in advance of main construction beginning in mid-2025, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.“A new Westgate ...
Minister for Children and for Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence Karen Chhour is encouraging people to use the resources available to them to get help, and to report instances of family and sexual violence amongst their friends, families, and loved ones who are in need. “The death of a ...
Uia te pō, rangahaua te pō, whakamāramatia mai he aha tō tango, he aha tō kāwhaki? Whitirere ki te ao, tirotiro kau au, kei hea taku rātā whakamarumaru i te au o te pakanga mo te mana motuhake? Au te pō, ngū te pō, ue hā! E te kahurangi māreikura, ...
Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says people with diabetes and other painful conditions will benefit from a significant new qualification to boost training in foot care. “It sounds simple, but quality and regular foot and nail care is vital in preventing potentially serious complications from diabetes, like blisters or sores, which can take a long time to heal ...
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour is pleased to see Pharmac continue to increase availability of medicines for Kiwis with the government’s largest ever investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the government,” says Mr Seymour. “When this government assumed ...
Mā mua ka kite a muri, mā muri ka ora e mua - Those who lead give sight to those who follow, those who follow give life to those who lead. Māori recipients in the New Year 2025 Honours list show comprehensive dedication to improving communities across the motu that ...
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden is wishing all New Zealanders a great holiday season as Kiwis prepare for gatherings with friends and families to see in the New Year. It is a great time of year to remind everyone to stay fire safe over the summer. “I know ...
A new poem by Niamh Hollis-Locke.Field-notes: Midsummer, 9pm, walking barefoot in the reserve after a storm, the sky still light, the city strung out across backs of the hills Dunes of last week’s cut grass washed downslope against the bracken, drifts of pale wet stems rotting into one ...
The poll, conducted between 9-13 January, shows National down 4.6 points to 29.6%, while Labour have risen 4.0 points from last month, overtaking them with30.9%. ...
As the world farewells visionary director David Lynch, we return to this 2017 piece by Angela Cuming about escaping into the haunting world of Twin Peaks. I was only 10 years old when Twin Peaks – and the real world – found me.Once a week, in the dark, I ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marc C-Scott, Associate Professor of Screen Media | Deputy Associate Dean of Learning & Teaching, Victoria University Screenshot/YouTube The 2025 Australian Open (AO) broadcast may seem similar to previous years if you’re watching on the television. However, if you’re watching online ...
By Anish Chand in Suva A Fiji community human rights coalition has called on Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka to halt his “reckless expansion” of government and refocus on addressing Fiji’s pressing challenges. The NGO Coalition on Human Rights (NGOCHR) said it was outraged by the abrupt and arbitrary reshuffling of ...
A selection of the best shows, movies, podcasts and playlists that kept us entertained over the holidays. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here.Leo (Netflix) My partner and I watched exactly one thing on the TV in our Japan accommodation while ...
Toby Manhire tells you everything you need to know ahead of season two of Severance.After an agonising wait – nearly three years between waffles, thanks to US actor and writer strikes and, some say, creative squabbles – Severance returns today, Friday January 17. For my money the first season ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a 32-year-old mother of a one-year-old shares her approach to spending and saving. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here.Gender: Female. Age: 32. Ethnicity: East Asian – NZ ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Talia Fell, PhD Candidate, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland The Los Angeles wildfires are causing the devastating loss of people’s homes. From A-list celebrities such as Paris Hilton to an Australian family living in LA, thousands ...
The outgoing and incoming presidents have both claimed credit for the historic deal, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund for The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. ...
Finally, some good fucking news. The Friday Poem is back! Last year, The Spinoff leveled with its audience about the financial reality it faced and called for support from its audience. Some tough decisions were made at the time including cuts to our commissioning budget and the discontinuation of The ...
The soon-to-be deputy PM has already had a crucial win behind the scenes. First published in Henry Cooke’s politics newsletter, Museum Street. Margaret Thatcher used to love prime minister’s questions. If you’re not familiar, the UK parliamentary system has a weekly procedure where the prime minister is subject to at least ...
Summer reissue: The current coalition not lasting beyond this parliamentary term is an idea that’s been seized on by its opponents. History suggests it’s unlikely – but not impossible. The Spinoff needs to double the number of paying members we have to continue telling these kinds of stories. Please read ...
By Koroi Hawkins, RNZ Pacific editor in Port Vila More than 180,000 registered voters are expected to cast their votes today with polls now open in Vanuatu. It is remarkable the snap election is even able to happen with Friday marking one month since the 7.3 magnitude earthquake struck the ...
New Zealand needs to boost its productivity growth and become more attractive and accessible as a workplace in order to fix its labour market woes, a recruitment agency says.Commenting on new salary survey results from Robert Walters, Shay Peters, the company’s Australia and New Zealand chief executive, says the Government ...
Comment: When Newsroom’s editor Jonathan Milne invited me to write one of two special pieces for the summer break, I faced quite the conundrum. My options were to either review a work of non-fiction or write a column about hope and optimism for 2025.I initially misread Jonathan’s request to review ...
By Daniel Perese of Te Ao Māori News Māori politicians across the political spectrum in Aotearoa New Zealand have called for immediate aid to enter Gaza following a temporary ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel. The ceasefire, agreed yesterday, comes into effect on Sunday, January 19. Foreign Minister Winston Peters ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexandra Sherlock, Lecturer, School of Fashion and Textiles, RMIT University Australian-owned brand UGG Since 1974 has announced it will change its name to “Since 74” for sales outside Australia and New Zealand. There has been a long-running battle over the rights ...
The committee has agreed to split into two sub-committees to increase the number of people it can hear from in the time available. Each sub-committee will meet for 30 hours total, together making up 60 of the 80 planned hours of hearings. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Parmeter, Research scholar, Middle East studies, Australian National University The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, to come into effect on Sunday, has understandably been welcomed by the overwhelming majority of Israelis and Palestinians. Israelis are relieved that a process for ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christine Carson, Senior Research Fellow, School of Medicine, The University of Western Australia Over the past several days, the world has watched on in shock as wildfires have devastated large parts of Los Angeles. Beyond the obvious destruction – to landscapes, homes, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rose Cairns, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy, NHMRC Emerging Leadership Fellow, University of Sydney AtlasStudio/Shutterstock TikTok and Instagram influencers have been peddling the “Barbie drug” to help you tan. But melanotan-II, as it’s called officially, is a solution that’s too good to ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paula Jarzabkowski, Professor in Strategic Management, The University of Queensland A series of wildfires in Los Angeles County have caused widespread devastation in California, including at least 24 deaths and the destruction of more than 12,000 homes and structures. Thousands of residents ...
COMMENTARY:By Monika Singh The lack of women representation in parliaments across the world remains a vexed and contentious issue. In Fiji, this problem has again surfaced for debate in response to Deputy Prime Minister Manoa Kamikamica’s call for a quota system to increase women’s representation in Parliament. Kamikamica was ...
What compels someone of significant status in society to break the law, repeatedly, might be the same reason I did as a poor teenager. Former Green MP Golriz Ghahraman, who left parliament a year ago today following revelations of shoplifting, is now at the centre of another shoplifting complaint. As ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kath Albury, Professor of Media and Communication and Associate Investigator, ARC Centre of Excellence for Automated Decision-Making + Society, Swinburne University of Technology natamrli/Shutterstock Last week, social media giant Meta announced major changes to its content moderation practices. This includes an ...
"Gisborne has suffered from housing underdevelopment and a lack of supply, coupled with damage from severe weather events," Minister Tama Potaka says. ...
Unleash the COVID KRAKEN
That which should not be spoken:
The real government Strategy perchance?:
Purposely unleash COVID into the wider (90% vaccinated) population in a controlled manner (includes traffic light system for ongoing management) to infect populations with real COVID potentially to improve immunity of the vaccinated making the overall population more resilient.
Possible consequences of strategy
Benefits:
Dis-benefits
It will be interesting to see how the competing benefits / dis benefits will sum up on the ledger of life
Have we ensured testing and controls in place for the vulnerable around NZ INC are enough?
Good luck NZInc
One question remains: Is it now still the pandemic of the unvaccinated?
“RNZ:
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
The government's modelling expects up to 50 percent of the Covid-19 cases could be in vaccinated people, according to a Cabinet paper from 15 November. That is with vaccination rates of 90 percent, of which Auckland is above.
Another 25 percent of cases could be in under 12 year olds, the paper said.
This means around 75 percent of Covid-19 cases could be carried across the border by those not needing to be tested in order to leave.”
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/457933/auckland-border-testing-may-only-catch-a-quarter-of-cases-govt-report
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
Ormicron makes alot of that moot as it seems a double vax doesnt really stop it at all…
There were early study reports out of south africia yesterday.
Massively reduces the probability of going to hospital with ormicron compared to not having a double vax ~70% better.
Significantly reduces the probability of becoming symptomatic to the sniffles and voughing stage after you get it – about ~33%
Doesn't change the probability of getting covid-19 – just as it didn't for alpha, beta or delta. Everyone has about a 100% probility of getting each covid-19 variant eventually.
Much better off having the single, double or triple vax than not having a vaccination. Especially as you can get any other variant after having survived any other one… there is no herd immunity.
These are vaccines pushed out in a couple of years. It usually takes decades or even centuries to develop to the point of being sterilising vaccines – ones that massively reduce the probability of infection.
Basically if you are that into wanting miracle cures – then perhaps you should try prayer. Whining to a god appears to have worked miracles in previous pandemics by filling empty mass graves.
I'll take my percentages of advantage where they are more reliable and documented.
3/4s of those in hospital in S.A are unvaccinated (Omicron ).In the US republicans are dying 7 to 1 with c.f democrats becoz of the Dons bullshit
Huh, that's a new bit of information. So chances of getting the same variant is reduced to varying degrees (and for varying periods of time) if one has already had it. But are the chances reduced for other variants, or one can easily get another variant?
It isn't new.
I'd have to look it up, but late last year there were early reports of people in the UK who'd had alpha, then getting beta. The same kinds of reports came from other regions. And for delta after having other variants as well.
There was at least one US study earlier this year that looked at the probabilities of severity of a reinfection from last years variants that in part allowed for the underlying probabilities of severity. That indicated that previous infection partially reduced the risk of severity. But that was presumably after getting enough viral load to overwhelm existing immune responses to the point where people were symptomatic…
Why, there has been quite a lot of work that shows having had a infection strongly reduces the probability of symptomatic reinfection by another variant (pre-delta). As does vaccination.
However as far as I am aware there has been little to no research that shows pre-infection strongly reduces re-infection – probably because the early detection is based on the duration of viral load. The early immune responses from vaccinations or previous infection tend to reduce the time of viral shedding – which reduces the detection period.
Looking at b-cell or t-cells that persist after infections doesn't help because you can't tell for sure which variant they were induced by.
From my understanding, all you can say is that the chance of being symptomatic by a reinfection or a break through by a variant over a vaccinated are reduced markedly. But they were never 100%. With Pfizer they were ~90%+ for reinfection by delta. With omnicron, it is looking like ~70%. There was and still is a lot of dispute over the same figures for reinfection – but it is generally estimated to be lower or similar – but more variable.
A reinfection by a variant that doesn't trigger the learned immediate immune responses increases the probability of becoming symptomatic because the viral load gets higher earlier. However the slower immune responses from previous infection or vaccination tend to limit the severity.
That appears to be what is happening with omnicron. Compared to delta… High infection and reinfection rates. High rates of early symptoms. Less probability of severe symptoms.
Um… my point was Ormicon seems so infectious that once here there will be no slowing it down vaccination or not…
I'll leave the prayer to you thanks.
That is obvious – also not my point. It is the nature of infectious diseases to spread. It is the same with Delta, Beta, and Alpha. All that changes is the rate of infection, the morbidity, and the severe consequences between variants.
In my view both statements are duplicitous lies by omission. Stop or slow what? The vaccines were never intended to stop infection. The vaccines are designed for and are still offering significiant protection against the more severe consequences of getting infected or even of just mild symptoms. If that wasn’t your point – then I strongly suggest that you need to review how you word your statements.
The current covid-19 vaccines aren’t intended to slow spread. They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction). That they often reduce the period of shedding viral load is a fortuitous by-product. Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial. Those that bothered to report that trait them at all.
The current vaccines were intended to reduce the incidence of significiant symptoms leading to hospitalisations, implicitly long covid and death. Outside of the ranks of wishful thinkers and mystics and believers in herd immunity from endemic diseases, I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
My point was that your wishful ‘thinking’ of the vaccines preventing or limiting spread was completely wrong. There hasn’t been a sterilising vaccine or treatment produced for covid-19 yet. That will be a task that will probably take decades.
The wide use of the vaccines will prevent health systems collapsing because less people will get sick enough to chew of health resources. That means that some of the social measures like lockdowns, masks, international travel, social distancing, etc can be reduced.
Your original point was
The problem with omnicron is that its spread rate, ability to reinfect, and ability to breakthrough infect vaccinated will increase hospital loads through volume – which is what you referred to.
However being vaccinated still reduces the risk to any one person of getting severe consequences from being infected compared to the risk of the unvaccinated.
Your second statement was…
Just as much of lie.
The vaccines were never intended to stop infection.
They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction
Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial.
I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
So why the mandates?
Why are those of us who chose not to partake of these non sterilizing 'vaccines' which don't prevent spread now out of work, unable to go camping, unable to go to a restaurant, unable to participate to the fullest in everyday life?
Why do those who have been double vaccinated need to be kept safe from those of us who haven't been?
Asking respectfully for a friend.
As I discussed with you before.
If you aren't vaccinated, the probability of being infected and becoming symptomatic is higher than for the vaccinated.
The probability of the unvaccinated becoming hospitalised is far far higher than for the vaccinated. The probability of dying is higher again.
While the vaccinated are a bit less likely to infect others (shorter viral shedding periods) – that isn't what the vaccines were designed or tested for. But there are way more vaccinated than unvaccinated, therefore the probability of an unvaccinated person being infected by someone who is vaccinated is higher.
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of.
Or as I'd state it in my rough way – I'd hate to unintentionally kill someone just because they were daft or ignorant enough to offload their risk on to me. Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason.
Both are reasons to make sure that I am separated from people of shedding risk fro arbitrary reasons of to anyone who carefully reduces their risk. It is exactly the same logic as is used in trying to reduce public drunkenness, drunken driving, people waving weapons around and firing them off without thinking about unforeseen consequences, people dropping poisons into public waterways etc etc
Exactly how many times do I have to explain this to you?
Severity of illness less for vaccinated than unvaccinated. Yup. Chances of winding up in hospital or dying, for people with not too many years under their belt and with no co-morbidities, pretty minimal – whether vaccinated or not.
Vaccination makes no discernible difference in how contagious a person is. (Faster shedding equates to being more infectious but for a shorter timespan than an unvaccinated person)
Seems that excess all cause mortality rates spike when vaccine rollouts commence…
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of. ?
Hang on, I thought it was the unvaccinated chewing up the medical resources? I guess excluding the minority that are unvaccinated just might prevent a few catching Te Virus from a vaccinated person…?
Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason. ?
But you have done the right thing and had both your shots and therefore your risk of symptomatic infection is really low and since the majority of the folks around you are also double jabbed then surely the risk to you from the small number of unjabbed in your vicinity is negligible?
I'm not sure how vaccination status relates to being tested (or not)?
Are you saying the unjabbed are less likely to be tested than the jabbed? Have you proof of this? From what I am hearing the jabbed don't get tested because they truly believe the Pfizer Product prevents infection. "No, its ok it's only a cold because I'm vaccinated."
And as for risk…are you keeping up with the latest on the risk of heart damage from the mRNA products? Because the trumpeted risk of less than one person in a million people who have had Comirnaty vaccine in the European Union is now reported as being much, much higher.
. In Israel, where only BNT162b2 vaccines were used following the
product monograph with a 21 day inter-dose interval, the rate of myocarditis (using the BC definition)
following dose two among males 16-19 was 150 per 1,000,000 between December 2020 and May 2021,
although this time period encompassed both active and passive surveillance periods. 2 The rate of
myocarditis/pericarditis among males aged 12-17 who received two doses of BNT162b2 at an interval of
30 days or less in Ontario was similar at 159.7 per million doses. In the United Kingdom (UK), the
reporting rate for myocarditis after both first and second doses across all ages was estimated at 10 per
million doses of BNT162b2
As yet I have seen no update from our enormously efficient Ministry of Health that indicates they are actually keeping up. They will, when the true picture emerges of the harms done….. claim what? "We didn't know." ?
You might think it is worth the risk of being in that 10 in 1000000 group of all ages who suffer heart damage from the vaccine…being a mature person with a bit of a dodgy ticker anyway…but do you really believe that a young man with a strong, healthy heart should be mandated to take a product that could put him into the 94.5 or 159 cases per 1000000 doses risk category? (In case you're not keeping up…that is a little more than the 6 in a million doses Pertousis-Harris quotes here.)
Because that's what happening here in New Zealand. And the young people are at low to no risk from Covid..so forcing the vaccine on them is for what purpose?
The Pfizer Product is not safe. It is not effective other than probably lowering the risk of severe disease in some people for a short while.
It most definitely does not warrant being forced on everyone. Or anyone.
Especially not the children and young people.
Young Kiwis are having te vaccine forced on them? Ghastly! Hope Neve gets an exemption. Imagine using “young people” to fight your battles.
The "Pfizer product" is safe (compare, for example, the 320 Kiwis who died on NZ roads in 2020 – "Make it click"), and effective. It certainly (not "probably") lowers the risk of death or severe distress due to Covid-19 infection. Lest we forget, according to Prof. Benn (thanks for that link) vaccines are "the largest untapped resource for improving health globally", and 8.55 billion doses of vaccines against Covid-19 have been administered worldwide.
Agree 100% – I wasn't prepared to deal with the consequences of choosing not to get jabbed (including the potential health consequences of being unvaccinated if/when I'm infected with Covid-19), but good luck to the few hardy and/or brave individuals who are.
Aotearoa NZ has one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates in the world (more than 200 times lower than the UK and US, and at least 100 times lower than Sweden, Ireland and Germany) – we really don't know how lucky we are!
How awful it would have been if those 48 tragic NZ Covid deaths had been 4800, or 9600. Thanks to the team's high Covid-19 vaccination rates (~90% of those eligible), that's now unlikely – something to be grateful for, you would think.
Unite against
COVID-19
https://covid19.govt.nz
https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-37.asp
The government is totally dismissing and denying that there are any adverse effects from the Pfizer Product. Complete denial.
And if you took the time to check out the paper from Ontario regarding myo and pericarditis you might just gain an insight into why it is that the vax rates are so low in the US. Clue…Moderna was heavily pushed, and a combination of Pfizer and Moderna. The rates are eye watering.
As I have asked many times…if Covid is so totally terrifying and the bodies were piling up hither and thither and there were safe and effective vaccines to stem the tide of death don't you think everyone would be trampling over each over to get a shot? They were…they they had to be cajoled, threatened, mandated.
For heaven's sake…instead of pushing slogans….think about why so many worldwide are 'vaccine' hesitant.
Your medsafe.govt.nz link details many "adverse effects", from common and mild, to rare and serious. Your "dismissing and denying" stance rather puts you in the denial camp – "complete denial", imho.
Let’s agree to disagree about the benefits and risks associated with te vaccine – glad I got it, feel safer for it, but that’s just me. If it’s any consolation, I support your choice not to get Pfizered, and wish you well.
If the vaccine reduces the chances of getting covid, then isn't slowing spread a secondary benefit because the number of people getting covid (and thus spreading it) is reduced?
For the Labour caucus to have approved that strategy there would need to be a document trail that includes the MoH and the Director General of Health. Do you think that it's more likely that,
a) such a paper trail exists and is being kept hidden but could be leaked at any time
or
b) Labour really are following public health advice and placing that in the context of managing the economy (in its neoliberal way).
Afaik there's not good evidence yet that herd immunity from infection is possible/useful. Further, delta is dangerous. Omicron or a later variant might change that but at the moment I don't think what you are suggesting would work.
I think it's much more likely that Labour are doing the best they can stuck between the delta rock and the economy hard place (and the restless population other hard place)
It's clear that elimination from hard lock downs is no longer possible.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Everyone on the planet is having to make this up as we go along. Novel virus, there is still a lot we don't know, especially how this is going to play out over time. Incredibly hard to govern under those conditions including making educated decisions based on things we just don't know.
If you can think of a better way forward other than hard lock downs, I'd like to hear that. Myself, I think they should keep the international border closed to people other than returning Kiwis. I think people wanting to come and go from NZ should be in two week MiQ. And we wait to see what Omicron does before opening the borders more than that. The Traffic Light systems seems as good a plan as any for internally, except for the specific problems that some communities face eg Māori in some areas. That needs addressing as a matter of urgency.
Colonial racism in cabinet is a simpler explanation for their decisions than a conspiracy is.
lol, yes that too.
Do you think the Māori caucus argued against the plan, or went along with it out of pragmatics?
Who knows? Maybe their silence was the price for begrudging late funding for community-led vax efforts over the last couple of months..
…begrudging late funding for community-led vax efforts …
And a good deal of that funding has gone towards various 'incentives' in the form of cash cards and vouchers and meat packs. Free sausage sizzles and barbies and the like. A little patronising…no?
It says something that these are the bribes required to get needles in the arms of the section of our community that rides low on every socio-economic marker. At least that is how it has largely played out up here in the FFN. You'd think that the endless 'mate korona' messaging and recollections of the dreadful toll of the Spanish Flu would have been sufficient to get the sleeves rolled up.
I hazard that there would have been more willing buy in had successive governments won the trust of whanau in Te Tai Tokerau by addressing more of the deeper deprivation issues. Funding for housing and $$$ for stemming the shit tide at Northland Base Hospital is a little late.
And despite the $$$…we're still in the naughty corner, and a quick cruise around the vax tents in Kaitaia today saw very bored looking workers.
Or maybe even this govt hesitated to blatantly mass prioritise health care based on skin colour?
Nothing could be more obviously racist than this – and would stand them condemned as repellent as anything the apartheid era threw up.
it's not skin colour (there are Māori who look white), it's ethnicity, because in NZ and the way we organise society Māori ethnicity is related to a range of risks that Pākehā don't have as a class.
It's also possible that Māori have vulnerabilities related to genetics too (haven't seen any discussion of this but we know that they were particularly vulnerable to new viral infections during colonisation).
Gobsmaking to have to explain this on a labour movement blog to lefties.
You're the one that's hung up on race Red, and that's nothing to do with what I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
If there is a specific medical argument to be made then make it. But if it's just 'subjugated' – then no.
The sooner we stop dividing each other up and setting everyone against each other on stupid spurious grounds, the more likely we are to function as a healthy society.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Someone made that statement on another international site the other day and was challenged. No one could recall at what point it was "on the cards" that more than two doses would be needed, but it was generally agreed that it was not "always".
Can you pinpoint where you became certain that boosters would be needed? My recollection is that it was very much a two dose deal with Pfizer. The booster/3rd dose was initially only for immunosupressed./compromised. As it eventuated that the Pfizer Product was largely useless after 6 months, (Israel…) rolled out boosters.
But I don't recall it was always going to be third shots or boosters.
Might be a semantic difference. By on the cards I meant there was always a chance that the two shots would be insufficient. Pretty sure I’ve been saying right from the start that I was doubtful that there would be a silver bullet vaccine. I remember conversations last year with science-is-god people, who had a huge amount of faith in medical science to solve covid.
it’s a fair question though. Haven’t they know since trials though that there is waning immunity? And of course, the perceived need for booster shots is as much about how the pandemic is playing out. I honestly don’t think anyone can predict what’s going to happen, am sceptical of people who try and assert predictions, and pay more attention to people saying this is the state of play and based on that this is what I think is most likely to happen.
I wouldn’t want to be in government or high up in MoH trying to make major decisions under such circumstances.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/upset-hone-harawira-claims-police-vetted-iwi-led-checkpoint-group-members.html
Umm … Hone, e hoa, Gang Members? Really? Come off the grass, bro.
Have you seen the gang involvement in the protests? We need people who get the culture to get them on board with covid harm minimisation.
The Head Hunters can stop your car first.
What's more likely:
a) The collective organising the check points have found selected gang leader to be part of the team
or
b) Harawira lets the Head Hunters run one of the check points.
Do you actually know or are just making that up?
Not trying to be smart here, I'd actually like to know what the gang involvement is.
The whole gangs are irredemiably evil shit and should always and forever be shunned is getting tedious.
'The whole gangs are irredemiably evil shit and should always and forever be shunned is getting tedious.'
Yes they and yes they should
that's how you perpetuate gangs.
Remember to let them know where you came from and how long you expect to be away, just to be helpful
Hone Harawira gets the legislation he wants rushed through under urgency last week, gets the checkpoints he whined about, gets the negative proof just today of a small handful of non-double vaxxers trying to enter out of tens of thousands, and then tries to tell off the Police for not letting gang members pull over cars and interrogate the public.
His gang members can fuck off back to the holes they came from or at very least concentrate their efforts on the morons in the far north causng the issue in the first place: the unvaccinated.
The roadblocks will stop shortly. Good job.
Hone Harawira will fade from TV profile again. Good job.
Hone is doing a lot more and investing a lot more of his time in an effort to keep folk safe than you Ad. Sounds like your the fuckwit.
Tru dat, he a busy bro for da right reasons, but he also likes to ensure he stays in da news. Not one to hide his light under a bushell. Don’t make no sense having gang members on the checkpoints.
Gang members have developed bad habits of organising criminal activity, shooting at police, & at other gang members, & too many like to monster & intimidate people & other gangs. Best thing is to at least vet the buggers for any with a track record of these propensities.
Hone knows that. He’s keeping his profile high with nga iwi & nga Māori elsewhere, like a modern day Hone Heke. Imo.
" His gang members can fuck off back to the holes they came from "
Aint that the truth!
100% agree
Gangs are growing where are they going to live ,They all can't live in your place of work PR.
No govt has stopped gangs they are a symtom of our selfish society.
When you have look at the state inquiry into child abuse by the Church and State the number of gang members especially gang leaders created from that level of sexual , violent abuse ,neglect neglect of education neglect of a safe environment,neglect of love.
You can see why criminal gangs prolificate with members who have no empathy or ability to change nasty intergenerational dysfunction.
The dept of corrections is a joke just a temporary warehouse where criminals learn to be better criminals the nastier criminal you are gives a promotion in the hierarchy .prisons are the Head Office of the gangs.
only takes one.
Is it voluntary or paid …work?
Don't know. There may be some government koha involved. There may be some kind of authorisation by the police required to give legal power to these individuals to stop cars and demand documents or evidence from the occupants.
Luxon complaining on One news that Grant just wants to spend money, after Grant said health needs a lot more money spent on it. “ We’re not wasting money on the health system “ has a real vote winning ring to it!
Yea, with the nodding head of Bridges shows how austerity politics will be back on the Nats playbook
Yes the old 'they are irresponsible ,spend,spend,spend….we are a safe pair of hands,sound economic managers….same , reliable theme .
The people of the Freedom and Choice group and the NZ Outdoors Party are entitled to their particular beliefs. Sort of like people are entitled to their mental health problems.
When it ends in things like this?
"A Covid-19 testing station in Richmond, near Nelson, has been closed indefinitely after abuse of staff reached unsafe levels.
Police were called to the testing site at the Richmond Showgrounds on Sunday after staff were subjected to verbal attacks from a small group of people who did not believe Covid was a threat, Nelson Bays Primary Health general manager Charlotte Etheridge said."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/127290738/covid19-testing-station-closed-after-threats-to-staff-escalate
The Herald mischief making.
A headline claiming the police are going to lose at least 600 frontline police officers due to the decision to mandate staff vaccinations turns out to be the claim of one anonymous unvaccinated police officer. Near the bottom you get to find out the Commissioner plus a few others high rankers have rejected the claim outright:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/police-warn-of-major-repercussions-as-unvaxxed-officers-face-being-stood-down/BC6Z6D2HFSLU4ZXFLKXWT6KMJ4/
fuck that's low even for te herald.
Finance Minister delivers a win for the Greens:
It's local democracy vs national democracy. I counted 12 mayors in the protest.
So the protestors represent less than a quarter of the nation.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/three-waters-mayors-coalition-hopes-to-unchain-reforms-talk-about-alternatives/DVG2QIOYVDBBRKQONO3FKJAMBU/
Not all mayor's go to protests I think you will find that most mayor's are against the mandate.
Only a few green mayor's are to the fore.
Like Aron Hawkins Dunedin but he will face a public backlash as Dunedin rate payers who have forked out $100's of millions to modernize and upgrade sewage and potable water will end up paying for Auckland and Wellington's and many other municipalities.While paying $100's of millions of debt borrowed to fix Dunedin.
One of the reasons Worboys doesn't have frogs coming out of the tap is frogs live in healthy clean water. Not in the Oroua River.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300357439/iwi-dreams-of-restoring-life-force-to-its-degraded-river
Every time I read of opposition to 3 waters, opponents focus on water going in, a little quieter about the dead creeks, rivers and lakes around the motu.
Sigh.. I keep misspelling the Ormicron word. Mostly as Omnicron …. And I can't add it to the autospeller.
I must find time to work on fixing the comment editor this weekend – despite the urgent need (by someone) for Xmas shopping.
🙁
I was about to ask you, if you have some time over the holidays (😛), can you please fix the phone site so we comment and track replies on the same version (I prefer the desktop, but either would be fine). Atm I have to swap both versions as it's not possible to comment from the desktop one, and the mobile one doesn't have the Replies list and is generally harder to follow.
*Omicron
I remember it best as O+micron