Purposely unleash COVID into the wider (90% vaccinated) population in a controlled manner (includes traffic light system for ongoing management) to infect populations with real COVID potentially to improve immunity of the vaccinated making the overall population more resilient.
Possible consequences of strategy
Benefits:
NZ Inc more resilience to fight the pandemic
Reduce impact on health system
Improve economic outcome
Improve wellness of population due to allowing ‘normal’ life to resume
Potentially Reduce need for a 3rd vaccination
Potentially increased immunity via combination vaccination and natural infection
Open international boarders
Dis-benefits
Vulnerable people at greater risk due to stealth COVID spread
Increase in illness and or deaths
Greater strain on health system
Potentially future lock downs over and above traffic light control (also see Sweden, Norway, Denmark now putting restrictions in place)
3rd vaccination required for vaccinated
It will be interesting to see how the competing benefits / dis benefits will sum up on the ledger of life
Have we ensured testing and controls in place for the vulnerable around NZ INC are enough?
Good luck NZInc
One question remains: Is it now still the pandemic of the unvaccinated?
“RNZ:
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
The government's modelling expects up to 50 percent of the Covid-19 cases could be in vaccinated people, according to a Cabinet paper from 15 November. That is with vaccination rates of 90 percent, of which Auckland is above.
Another 25 percent of cases could be in under 12 year olds, the paper said.
This means around 75 percent of Covid-19 cases could be carried across the border by those not needing to be tested in order to leave.”
There were early study reports out of south africia yesterday.
Massively reduces the probability of going to hospital with ormicron compared to not having a double vax ~70% better.
Significantly reduces the probability of becoming symptomatic to the sniffles and voughing stage after you get it – about ~33%
Doesn't change the probability of getting covid-19 – just as it didn't for alpha, beta or delta. Everyone has about a 100% probility of getting each covid-19 variant eventually.
Much better off having the single, double or triple vax than not having a vaccination. Especially as you can get any other variant after having survived any other one… there is no herd immunity.
These are vaccines pushed out in a couple of years. It usually takes decades or even centuries to develop to the point of being sterilising vaccines – ones that massively reduce the probability of infection.
Basically if you are that into wanting miracle cures – then perhaps you should try prayer. Whining to a god appears to have worked miracles in previous pandemics by filling empty mass graves.
I'll take my percentages of advantage where they are more reliable and documented.
Much better off having the single, double or triple vax than not having a vaccination. Especially as you can get any other variant after having survived any other one… there is no herd immunity.
Huh, that's a new bit of information. So chances of getting the same variant is reduced to varying degrees (and for varying periods of time) if one has already had it. But are the chances reduced for other variants, or one can easily get another variant?
I'd have to look it up, but late last year there were early reports of people in the UK who'd had alpha, then getting beta. The same kinds of reports came from other regions. And for delta after having other variants as well.
There was at least one US study earlier this year that looked at the probabilities of severity of a reinfection from last years variants that in part allowed for the underlying probabilities of severity. That indicated that previous infection partially reduced the risk of severity. But that was presumably after getting enough viral load to overwhelm existing immune responses to the point where people were symptomatic…
Why, there has been quite a lot of work that shows having had a infection strongly reduces the probability of symptomatic reinfection by another variant (pre-delta). As does vaccination.
However as far as I am aware there has been little to no research that shows pre-infection strongly reduces re-infection – probably because the early detection is based on the duration of viral load. The early immune responses from vaccinations or previous infection tend to reduce the time of viral shedding – which reduces the detection period.
Looking at b-cell or t-cells that persist after infections doesn't help because you can't tell for sure which variant they were induced by.
But are the chances reduced for other variants, or one can easily get another variant?
From my understanding, all you can say is that the chance of being symptomatic by a reinfection or a break through by a variant over a vaccinated are reduced markedly. But they were never 100%. With Pfizer they were ~90%+ for reinfection by delta. With omnicron, it is looking like ~70%. There was and still is a lot of dispute over the same figures for reinfection – but it is generally estimated to be lower or similar – but more variable.
A reinfection by a variant that doesn't trigger the learned immediate immune responses increases the probability of becoming symptomatic because the viral load gets higher earlier. However the slower immune responses from previous infection or vaccination tend to limit the severity.
That appears to be what is happening with omnicron. Compared to delta… High infection and reinfection rates. High rates of early symptoms. Less probability of severe symptoms.
…my point was Ormicon seems so infectious that once here there will be no slowing it down vaccination or not…
That is obvious – also not my point. It is the nature of infectious diseases to spread. It is the same with Delta, Beta, and Alpha. All that changes is the rate of infection, the morbidity, and the severe consequences between variants.
In my view both statements are duplicitous lies by omission. Stop or slow what? The vaccines were never intended to stop infection. The vaccines are designed for and are still offering significiant protection against the more severe consequences of getting infected or even of just mild symptoms. If that wasn’t your point – then I strongly suggest that you need to review how you word your statements.
The current covid-19 vaccines aren’t intended to slow spread. They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction). That they often reduce the period of shedding viral load is a fortuitous by-product. Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial. Those that bothered to report that trait them at all.
The current vaccines were intended to reduce the incidence of significiant symptoms leading to hospitalisations, implicitly long covid and death. Outside of the ranks of wishful thinkers and mystics and believers in herd immunity from endemic diseases, I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
My point was that your wishful ‘thinking’ of the vaccines preventing or limiting spread was completely wrong. There hasn’t been a sterilising vaccine or treatment produced for covid-19 yet. That will be a task that will probably take decades.
The wide use of the vaccines will prevent health systems collapsing because less people will get sick enough to chew of health resources. That means that some of the social measures like lockdowns, masks, international travel, social distancing, etc can be reduced.
Your original point was
Ormicron makes alot of that moot as it seems a double vax doesnt really stop it at all…
The problem with omnicron is that its spread rate, ability to reinfect, and ability to breakthrough infect vaccinated will increase hospital loads through volume – which is what you referred to.
However being vaccinated still reduces the risk to any one person of getting severe consequences from being infected compared to the risk of the unvaccinated.
Your second statement was…
Um… my point was Ormicon seems so infectious that once here there will be no slowing it down vaccination or not…
The vaccines were never intended to stop infection.
They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction
Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial.
I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
So why the mandates?
Why are those of us who chose not to partake of these non sterilizing 'vaccines' which don't prevent spread now out of work, unable to go camping, unable to go to a restaurant, unable to participate to the fullest in everyday life?
Why do those who have been double vaccinated need to be kept safe from those of us who haven't been?
If you aren't vaccinated, the probability of being infected and becoming symptomatic is higher than for the vaccinated.
The probability of the unvaccinated becoming hospitalised is far far higher than for the vaccinated. The probability of dying is higher again.
While the vaccinated are a bit less likely to infect others (shorter viral shedding periods) – that isn't what the vaccines were designed or tested for. But there are way more vaccinated than unvaccinated, therefore the probability of an unvaccinated person being infected by someone who is vaccinated is higher.
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of.
Or as I'd state it in my rough way – I'd hate to unintentionally kill someone just because they were daft or ignorant enough to offload their risk on to me. Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason.
Both are reasons to make sure that I am separated from people of shedding risk fro arbitrary reasons of to anyone who carefully reduces their risk. It is exactly the same logic as is used in trying to reduce public drunkenness, drunken driving, people waving weapons around and firing them off without thinking about unforeseen consequences, people dropping poisons into public waterways etc etc
Exactly how many times do I have to explain this to you?
Severity of illness less for vaccinated than unvaccinated. Yup. Chances of winding up in hospital or dying, for people with not too many years under their belt and with no co-morbidities, pretty minimal – whether vaccinated or not.
Vaccination makes no discernible difference in how contagious a person is. (Faster shedding equates to being more infectious but for a shorter timespan than an unvaccinated person)
Seems that excess all cause mortality rates spike when vaccine rollouts commence…
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of. ?
Hang on, I thought it was the unvaccinated chewing up the medical resources? I guess excluding the minority that are unvaccinated just might prevent a few catching Te Virus from a vaccinated person…?
Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason. ?
But you have done the right thing and had both your shots and therefore your risk of symptomatic infection is really low and since the majority of the folks around you are also double jabbed then surely the risk to you from the small number of unjabbed in your vicinity is negligible?
I'm not sure how vaccination status relates to being tested (or not)?
Are you saying the unjabbed are less likely to be tested than the jabbed? Have you proof of this? From what I am hearing the jabbed don't get tested because they truly believe the Pfizer Product prevents infection. "No, its ok it's only a cold because I'm vaccinated."
And as for risk…are you keeping up with the latest on the risk of heart damage from the mRNA products? Because the trumpeted risk of less than one person in a million people who have had Comirnaty vaccine in the European Union is now reported as being much, much higher.
. In Israel, where only BNT162b2 vaccines were used following the
product monograph with a 21 day inter-dose interval, the rate of myocarditis (using the BC definition)
following dose two among males 16-19 was 150 per 1,000,000 between December 2020 and May 2021,
although this time period encompassed both active and passive surveillance periods. 2 The rate of
myocarditis/pericarditis among males aged 12-17 who received two doses of BNT162b2 at an interval of
30 days or less in Ontario was similar at 159.7 per million doses. In the United Kingdom (UK), the
reporting rate for myocarditis after both first and second doses across all ages was estimated at 10 per
million doses of BNT162b2
As yet I have seen no update from our enormously efficient Ministry of Health that indicates they are actually keeping up. They will, when the true picture emerges of the harms done….. claim what? "We didn't know." ?
You might think it is worth the risk of being in that 10 in 1000000 group of all ages who suffer heart damage from the vaccine…being a mature person with a bit of a dodgy ticker anyway…but do you really believe that a young man with a strong, healthy heart should be mandated to take a product that could put him into the 94.5 or 159 cases per 1000000 doses risk category? (In case you're not keeping up…that is a little more than the 6 in a million doses Pertousis-Harris quotes here.)
Because that's what happening here in New Zealand. And the young people are at low to no risk from Covid..so forcing the vaccine on them is for what purpose?
The Pfizer Product is not safe. It is not effective other than probably lowering the risk of severe disease in some people for a short while.
It most definitely does not warrant being forced on everyone. Or anyone.
And the young people are at low to no risk from Covid..so forcing the vaccine on them is for what purpose?
Young Kiwis are having te vaccine forced on them? Ghastly! Hope Neve gets an exemption. Imagine using “young people” to fight your battles.
The Pfizer Product is not safe. It is not effective other than probably lowering the risk of severe disease in some people for a short while.
The "Pfizer product" is safe (compare, for example, the 320 Kiwis who died on NZ roads in 2020 – "Make it click"), and effective. It certainly (not "probably") lowers the risk of death or severe distress due to Covid-19 infection. Lest we forget, according to Prof. Benn (thanks for that link) vaccines are "the largest untapped resource for improving health globally", and 8.55 billion doses of vaccines against Covid-19 have been administered worldwide.
It most definitely does not warrant being forced on everyone. Or anyone.
Agree 100% – I wasn't prepared to deal with the consequences of choosing not to get jabbed (including the potential health consequences of being unvaccinated if/when I'm infected with Covid-19), but good luck to the few hardy and/or brave individuals who are.
Aotearoa NZ has one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates in the world (more than 200 times lower than the UK and US, and at least 100 times lower than Sweden, Ireland and Germany) – we really don't know how lucky we are!
How awful it would have been if those 48 tragic NZ Covid deaths had been 4800, or 9600. Thanks to the team's high Covid-19 vaccination rates (~90% of those eligible), that's now unlikely – something to be grateful for, you would think.
The government is totally dismissing and denying that there are any adverse effects from the Pfizer Product. Complete denial.
And if you took the time to check out the paper from Ontario regarding myo and pericarditis you might just gain an insight into why it is that the vax rates are so low in the US. Clue…Moderna was heavily pushed, and a combination of Pfizer and Moderna. The rates are eye watering.
As I have asked many times…if Covid is so totally terrifying and the bodies were piling up hither and thither and there were safe and effective vaccines to stem the tide of death don't you think everyone would be trampling over each over to get a shot? They were…they they had to be cajoled, threatened, mandated.
For heaven's sake…instead of pushing slogans….think about why so many worldwide are 'vaccine' hesitant.
The government is totally dismissing and denying that there are any adverse effects from the Pfizer Product. Complete denial.
Your medsafe.govt.nz link details many "adverse effects", from common and mild, to rare and serious. Your "dismissing and denying" stance rather puts you in the denial camp – "complete denial", imho.
Let’s agree to disagree about the benefits and risks associated with te vaccine – glad I got it, feel safer for it, but that’s just me. If it’s any consolation, I support your choice not to get Pfizered, and wish you well.
The current covid-19 vaccines aren’t intended to slow spread. They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction). That they often reduce the period of shedding viral load is a fortuitous by-product. Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial. Those that bothered to report that trait them at all.
If the vaccine reduces the chances of getting covid, then isn't slowing spread a secondary benefit because the number of people getting covid (and thus spreading it) is reduced?
Purposely unleash COVID into the wider (90% vaccinated) population in a controlled manner (includes traffic light system for ongoing management) to infect populations with real COVID potentially to improve immunity of the vaccinated making the overall population more resilient.
For the Labour caucus to have approved that strategy there would need to be a document trail that includes the MoH and the Director General of Health. Do you think that it's more likely that,
a) such a paper trail exists and is being kept hidden but could be leaked at any time
or
b) Labour really are following public health advice and placing that in the context of managing the economy (in its neoliberal way).
Afaik there's not good evidence yet that herd immunity from infection is possible/useful. Further, delta is dangerous. Omicron or a later variant might change that but at the moment I don't think what you are suggesting would work.
I think it's much more likely that Labour are doing the best they can stuck between the delta rock and the economy hard place (and the restless population other hard place)
It's clear that elimination from hard lock downs is no longer possible.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Everyone on the planet is having to make this up as we go along. Novel virus, there is still a lot we don't know, especially how this is going to play out over time. Incredibly hard to govern under those conditions including making educated decisions based on things we just don't know.
If you can think of a better way forward other than hard lock downs, I'd like to hear that. Myself, I think they should keep the international border closed to people other than returning Kiwis. I think people wanting to come and go from NZ should be in two week MiQ. And we wait to see what Omicron does before opening the borders more than that. The Traffic Light systems seems as good a plan as any for internally, except for the specific problems that some communities face eg Māori in some areas. That needs addressing as a matter of urgency.
…begrudging late funding for community-led vax efforts …
And a good deal of that funding has gone towards various 'incentives' in the form of cash cards and vouchers and meat packs. Free sausage sizzles and barbies and the like. A little patronising…no?
It says something that these are the bribes required to get needles in the arms of the section of our community that rides low on every socio-economic marker. At least that is how it has largely played out up here in the FFN. You'd think that the endless 'mate korona' messaging and recollections of the dreadful toll of the Spanish Flu would have been sufficient to get the sleeves rolled up.
I hazard that there would have been more willing buy in had successive governments won the trust of whanau in Te Tai Tokerau by addressing more of the deeper deprivation issues. Funding for housing and $$$ for stemming the shit tide at Northland Base Hospital is a little late.
And despite the $$$…we're still in the naughty corner, and a quick cruise around the vax tents in Kaitaia today saw very bored looking workers.
it's not skin colour (there are Māori who look white), it's ethnicity, because in NZ and the way we organise society Māori ethnicity is related to a range of risks that Pākehā don't have as a class.
It's also possible that Māori have vulnerabilities related to genetics too (haven't seen any discussion of this but we know that they were particularly vulnerable to new viral infections during colonisation).
Gobsmaking to have to explain this on a labour movement blog to lefties.
You're the one that's hung up on race Red, and that's nothing to do with what I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
If there is a specific medical argument to be made then make it. But if it's just 'subjugated' – then no.
The sooner we stop dividing each other up and setting everyone against each other on stupid spurious grounds, the more likely we are to function as a healthy society.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Someone made that statement on another international site the other day and was challenged. No one could recall at what point it was "on the cards" that more than two doses would be needed, but it was generally agreed that it was not "always".
Can you pinpoint where you became certain that boosters would be needed? My recollection is that it was very much a two dose deal with Pfizer. The booster/3rd dose was initially only for immunosupressed./compromised. As it eventuated that the Pfizer Product was largely useless after 6 months, (Israel…) rolled out boosters.
But I don't recall it was always going to be third shots or boosters.
Might be a semantic difference. By on the cards I meant there was always a chance that the two shots would be insufficient. Pretty sure I’ve been saying right from the start that I was doubtful that there would be a silver bullet vaccine. I remember conversations last year with science-is-god people, who had a huge amount of faith in medical science to solve covid.
it’s a fair question though. Haven’t they know since trials though that there is waning immunity? And of course, the perceived need for booster shots is as much about how the pandemic is playing out. I honestly don’t think anyone can predict what’s going to happen, am sceptical of people who try and assert predictions, and pay more attention to people saying this is the state of play and based on that this is what I think is most likely to happen.
I wouldn’t want to be in government or high up in MoH trying to make major decisions under such circumstances.
'Kicked us in the ass': Harawira says last-minute police decision to vet checkpoint members means half stood down
Former Māori Party MP Hone Harawira is upset at the police, claiming they vetted members of his iwi-led checkpoint group Tai Tokerau Border Control ahead of the Northland boundary coming into effect.
Harawira told RNZ's Morning Report the vetting happened at the last minute, saying it "really kicked us in the ass".
"Our people, over the last 18-20 months, have included bus drivers, gang members, doctors, lawyers, mothers, teachers – all sorts of people. Now, all of a sudden at the last minute, it got dropped on us that everyone had to be vetted."
Hone Harawira gets the legislation he wants rushed through under urgency last week, gets the checkpoints he whined about, gets the negative proof just today of a small handful of non-double vaxxers trying to enter out of tens of thousands, and then tries to tell off the Police for not letting gang members pull over cars and interrogate the public.
His gang members can fuck off back to the holes they came from or at very least concentrate their efforts on the morons in the far north causng the issue in the first place: the unvaccinated.
The roadblocks will stop shortly. Good job.
Hone Harawira will fade from TV profile again. Good job.
Tru dat, he a busy bro for da right reasons, but he also likes to ensure he stays in da news. Not one to hide his light under a bushell. Don’t make no sense having gang members on the checkpoints.
Gang members have developed bad habits of organising criminal activity, shooting at police, & at other gang members, & too many like to monster & intimidate people & other gangs. Best thing is to at least vet the buggers for any with a track record of these propensities.
Hone knows that. He’s keeping his profile high with nga iwi & nga Māori elsewhere, like a modern day Hone Heke. Imo.
Gangs are growing where are they going to live ,They all can't live in your place of work PR.
No govt has stopped gangs they are a symtom of our selfish society.
When you have look at the state inquiry into child abuse by the Church and State the number of gang members especially gang leaders created from that level of sexual , violent abuse ,neglect neglect of education neglect of a safe environment,neglect of love.
You can see why criminal gangs prolificate with members who have no empathy or ability to change nasty intergenerational dysfunction.
The dept of corrections is a joke just a temporary warehouse where criminals learn to be better criminals the nastier criminal you are gives a promotion in the hierarchy .prisons are the Head Office of the gangs.
Don't know. There may be some government koha involved. There may be some kind of authorisation by the police required to give legal power to these individuals to stop cars and demand documents or evidence from the occupants.
Luxon complaining on One news that Grant just wants to spend money, after Grant said health needs a lot more money spent on it. “ We’re not wasting money on the health system “ has a real vote winning ring to it!
The people of the Freedom and Choice group and the NZ Outdoors Party are entitled to their particular beliefs. Sort of like people are entitled to their mental health problems.
When it ends in things like this?
"A Covid-19 testing station in Richmond, near Nelson, has been closed indefinitely after abuse of staff reached unsafe levels.
Police were called to the testing site at the Richmond Showgrounds on Sunday after staff were subjected to verbal attacks from a small group of people who did not believe Covid was a threat, Nelson Bays Primary Health general manager Charlotte Etheridge said."
A headline claiming the police are going to lose at least 600 frontline police officers due to the decision to mandate staff vaccinations turns out to be the claim of one anonymous unvaccinated police officer. Near the bottom you get to find out the Commissioner plus a few others high rankers have rejected the claim outright:
The Government will be announcing a new “Emissions Reduction Plan” alongside the 2022 Budget which will lay out how emissions will be cut across the economy. It will allocate money to the newly-created Climate Emergency Response Fund in order to meet its new obligations.
It's local democracy vs national democracy. I counted 12 mayors in the protest.
"We don't all have green slime, and frogs coming out of our taps," Manawatū District Council Mayor Helen Worboys said today.
mayors and allies in the Communities 4 Local Democracy coalition said the Government tried ramming through water reforms against the wishes and interests of local communities.
The mayors outside Parliament said Communities 4 Local Democracy represented 24 councils and more than 1.4 million people.
So the protestors represent less than a quarter of the nation.
Not all mayor's go to protests I think you will find that most mayor's are against the mandate.
Only a few green mayor's are to the fore.
Like Aron Hawkins Dunedin but he will face a public backlash as Dunedin rate payers who have forked out $100's of millions to modernize and upgrade sewage and potable water will end up paying for Auckland and Wellington's and many other municipalities.While paying $100's of millions of debt borrowed to fix Dunedin.
Every time I read of opposition to 3 waters, opponents focus on water going in, a little quieter about the dead creeks, rivers and lakes around the motu.
I was about to ask you, if you have some time over the holidays (😛), can you please fix the phone site so we comment and track replies on the same version (I prefer the desktop, but either would be fine). Atm I have to swap both versions as it's not possible to comment from the desktop one, and the mobile one doesn't have the Replies list and is generally harder to follow.
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In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...
One pill makes you largerAnd one pill makes you smallAnd the ones that mother gives youDon't do anything at allGo ask AliceWhen she's ten feet tallSongwriter: Grace Wing Slick.Morena, all, and a happy Bicycle Day to you.Today is an unofficial celebration of the dawning of the psychedelic era, commemorating the ...
It’s only been a few months since the Hollywood fires tore through Los Angeles, leaving a trail of devastation, numerous deaths, over 10,000 homes reduced to rubble, and a once glorious film industry on its knees. The Palisades and Eaton fires, fueled by climate-driven dry winds, didn’t just burn houses; ...
Four eighty-year-old books which are still vitally relevant today. Between 1942 and 1945, four refugees from Vienna each published a ground-breaking – seminal – book.* They left their country after Austria was taken over by fascists in 1934 and by Nazi Germany in 1938. Previously they had lived in ‘Red ...
Good Friday, 18th April, 2025: I can at last unveil the Secret Non-Fiction Project. The first complete Latin-to-English translation of Giovanni Pico della Mirandola’s twelve-book Disputationes adversus astrologiam divinatricem (Disputations Against Divinatory Astrology). Amounting to some 174,000 words, total. Some context is probably in order. Giovanni Pico della Mirandola (1463-1494) ...
National MP Hamish Campbell's pathetic attempt to downplay his deep ties to and involvement in the Two by Twos...a secretive religious sect under FBI and NZ Police investigation for child sexual abuse...isn’t just a misstep; it’s a calculated lie that insults the intelligence of every Kiwi voter.Campbell’s claim of being ...
New Zealand First’s Shane Jones has long styled himself as the “Prince of the Provinces,” a champion of regional development and economic growth. But beneath the bluster lies a troubling pattern of behaviour that reeks of cronyism and corruption, undermining the very democracy he claims to serve. Recent revelations and ...
Give me one reason to stay hereAnd I'll turn right back aroundGive me one reason to stay hereAnd I'll turn right back aroundSaid I don't want to leave you lonelyYou got to make me change my mindSongwriters: Tracy Chapman.Morena, and Happy Easter, whether that means to you. Hot cross buns, ...
New Zealand’s housing crisis is a sad indictment on the failures of right wing neoliberalism, and the National Party, under Chris Luxon’s shaky leadership, is trying to simply ignore it. The numbers don’t lie: Census data from 2023 revealed 112,496 Kiwis were severely housing deprived...couch-surfing, car-sleeping, or roughing it on ...
The podcast above of the weekly ‘Hoon’ webinar for paying subscribers on Thursday night features co-hosts & talking about the week’s news with regular and special guests, including: on a global survey of over 3,000 economists and scientists showing a significant divide in views on green growth; and ...
Simeon Brown, the National Party’s poster child for hubris, consistently over-promises and under-delivers. His track record...marked by policy flip-flops and a dismissive attitude toward expert advice, reveals a politician driven by personal ambition rather than evidence. From transport to health, Brown’s focus seems fixed on protecting National's image, not addressing ...
Open access notables Recent intensified riverine CO2 emission across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, Mu et al., Nature Communications:Global warming causes permafrost thawing, transferring large amounts of soil carbon into rivers, which inevitably accelerates riverine CO2 release. However, temporally and spatially explicit variations of riverine CO2 emissions remain unclear, limiting the ...
Once a venomous thorn in New Zealand’s blogosphere, Cathy Odgers, aka Cactus Kate, has slunk into the shadows, her once-sharp quills dulled by the fallout of Dirty Politics.The dishonest attack-blogger, alongside her vile accomplices such as Cameron Slater, were key players in the National Party’s sordid smear campaigns, exposed by Nicky ...
Once upon a time, not so long ago, those who talked of Australian sovereign capability, especially in the technology sector, were generally considered an amusing group of eccentrics. After all, technology ecosystems are global and ...
The ACT Party leader’s latest pet project is bleeding taxpayers dry, with $10 million funneled into seven charter schools for just 215 students. That’s a jaw-dropping $46,500 per student, compared to roughly $9,000 per head in state schools.You’d think Seymour would’ve learned from the last charter school fiasco, but apparently, ...
India navigated relations with the United States quite skilfully during the first Trump administration, better than many other US allies did. Doing so a second time will be more difficult, but India’s strategic awareness and ...
The NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi is concerned for low-income workers given new data released by Stats NZ that shows inflation was 2.5% for the year to March 2025, rising from 2.2% in December last year. “The prices of things that people can’t avoid are rising – meaning inflation is rising ...
Last week, the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment recommended that forestry be removed from the Emissions Trading Scheme. Its an unfortunate but necessary move, required to prevent the ETS's total collapse in a decade or so. So naturally, National has told him to fuck off, and that they won't be ...
China’s recent naval circumnavigation of Australia has highlighted a pressing need to defend Australia’s air and sea approaches more effectively. Potent as nuclear submarines are, the first Australian boats under AUKUS are at least seven ...
In yesterday’s post I tried to present the Reserve Bank Funding Agreement for 2025-30, as approved by the Minister of Finance and the Bank’s Board, in the context of the previous agreement, and the variation to that agreement signed up to by Grant Robertson a few weeks before the last ...
Australia’s bid to co-host the 31st international climate negotiations (COP31) with Pacific island countries in late 2026 is directly in our national interest. But success will require consultation with the Pacific. For that reason, no ...
Old and outdated buildings being demolished at Wellington Hospital in 2018. The new infrastructure being funded today will not be sufficient for future population size and some will not be built by 2035. File photo: Lynn GrievesonLong stories short from our political economy on Thursday, April 17:Simeon Brown has unveiled ...
The introduction of AI in workplaces can create significant health and safety risks for workers (such as intensification of work, and extreme surveillance) which can significantly impact workers’ mental and physical wellbeing. It is critical that unions and workers are involved in any decision to introduce AI so that ...
Donald Trump’s return to the White House and aggressive posturing is undermining global diplomacy, and New Zealand must stand firm in rejecting his reckless, fascist-driven policies that are dragging the world toward chaos.As a nation with a proud history of peacekeeping and principled foreign policy, we should limit our role ...
Sunday marks three months since Donald Trump’s inauguration as US president. What a ride: the style rude, language raucous, and the results rogue. Beyond manners, rudeness matters because tone signals intent as well as personality. ...
There are any number of reasons why anyone thinking of heading to the United States for a holiday should think twice. They would be giving their money to a totalitarian state where political dissenters are being rounded up and imprisoned here and here, where universities are having their funds for ...
Taiwan has an inadvertent, rarely acknowledged role in global affairs: it’s a kind of sponge, soaking up much of China’s political, military and diplomatic efforts. Taiwan soaks up Chinese power of persuasion and coercion that ...
The Ukraine war has been called the bloodiest conflict since World War II. As of July 2024, 10,000 women were serving in frontline combat roles. Try telling them—from the safety of an Australian lounge room—they ...
Following Canadian authorities’ discovery of a Chinese information operation targeting their country’s election, Australians, too, should beware such risks. In fact, there are already signs that Beijing is interfering in campaigning for the Australian election ...
This video includes personal musings and conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). From "founder" of Tesla and the OG rocket man with SpaceX, and rebranding twitter as X, Musk has ...
Back in February 2024, a rat infestation attracted a fair few headlines in the South Dunedin Countdown supermarket. Today, the rats struck again. They took out the Otago-Southland region’s internet connection. https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360656230/internet-outage-hits-otago-and-southland Strictly, it was just a coincidence – rats decided to gnaw through one fibre cable, while some hapless ...
I came in this morning after doing some chores and looked quickly at Twitter before unpacking the groceries. Someone was retweeting a Radio NZ story with the headline “Reserve Bank’s budget to be slashed by 25%”. Wow, I thought, the Minister of Finance has really delivered this time. And then ...
So, having teased it last week, Andrew Little has announced he will run for mayor of Wellington. On RNZ, he's saying its all about services - "fixing the pipes, making public transport cheaper, investing in parks, swimming pools and libraries, and developing more housing". Meanwhile, to the readers of the ...
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?W.B. Yeats, The Second Coming, 1921ALL OVER THE WORLD, devout Christians will be reaching for their bibles, reading and re-reading Revelation 13:16-17. For the benefit of all you non-Christians out there, these are the verses describing ...
Give me what I want, what I really, really want: And what India really wants from New Zealand isn’t butter or cheese, but a radical relaxation of the rules controlling Indian immigration.WHAT DOES INDIA WANT from New Zealand? Not our dairy products, that’s for sure, it’s got plenty of those. ...
In the week of Australia’s 3 May election, ASPI will release Agenda for Change 2025: preparedness and resilience in an uncertain world, a report promoting public debate and understanding on issues of strategic importance to ...
Yesterday, 5,500 senior doctors across Aotearoa New Zealand voted overwhelmingly to strike for a day.This is the first time in New Zealand ASMS members have taken strike action for 24 hours.They are asking the government tofund them and account for resource shortfalls.Vacancies are critical - 45-50% in some regions.The ...
For years and years and years, David Seymour and his posse of deluded neoliberals have been preaching their “tough on crime” gospel to voters. Harsher sentences! More police! Lock ‘em up! Throw away the key. But when it comes to their own, namely former Act Party president Tim Jago, a ...
Judith Collins is a seasoned master at political hypocrisy. As New Zealand’s Defence Minister, she's recently been banging the war drum, announcing a jaw-dropping $12 billion boost to the defence budget over the next four years, all while the coalition of chaos cries poor over housing, health, and education.Apparently, there’s ...
I’m on the London Overground watching what the phones people are holding are doing to their faces: The man-bun guy who could not be less impressed by what he's seeing but cannot stop reading; the woman who's impatient for a response; the one who’s frowning; the one who’s puzzled; the ...
You don't have no prescriptionYou don't have to take no pillsYou don't have no prescriptionAnd baby don't have to take no pillsIf you come to see meDoctor Brown will cure your ills.Songwriters: Waymon Glasco.Dr Luxon. Image: David and Grok.First, they came for the Bottom FeedersAnd I did not speak outBecause ...
The Health Minister says the striking doctors already “well remunerated,” and are “walking away from” and “hurting” their patients. File photo: Lynn GrievesonLong stories short from our political economy on Wednesday, April 16:Simeon Brown has attacked1 doctors striking for more than a 1.5% pay rise as already “well remunerated,” even ...
The time is ripe for Australia and South Korea to strengthen cooperation in space, through embarking on joint projects and initiatives that offer practical outcomes for both countries. This is the finding of a new ...
Hi,When Trump raised tariffs against China to 145%, he destined many small businesses to annihilation. The Daily podcast captured the mass chaos by zooming in and talking to one person, Beth Benike, a small-business owner who will likely lose her home very soon.She pointed out that no, she wasn’t surprised ...
National’s handling of inflation and the cost-of-living crisis is an utter shambles and a gutless betrayal of every Kiwi scraping by. The Coalition of Chaos Ministers strut around preaching about how effective their policies are, but really all they're doing is perpetuating a cruel and sick joke of undelivered promises, ...
Most people wouldn't have heard of a little worm like Rhys Williams, a so-called businessman and former NZ First member, who has recently been unmasked as the venomous troll behind a relentless online campaign targeting Green Party MP Benjamin Doyle.According to reports, Williams has been slinging mud at Doyle under ...
Illustration credit: Jonathan McHugh (New Statesman)The other day, a subscriber said they were unsubscribing because they needed “some good news”.I empathised. Don’t we all.I skimmed a NZME article about the impacts of tariffs this morning with analysis from Kiwibank’s Jarrod Kerr. Kerr, their Chief Economist, suggested another recession is the ...
Let’s assume, as prudence demands we assume, that the United States will not at any predictable time go back to being its old, reliable self. This means its allies must be prepared indefinitely to lean ...
Over the last three rather tumultuous US trade policy weeks, I’ve read these four books. I started with Irwin (whose book had sat on my pile for years, consulted from time to time but not read) in a week of lots of flights and hanging around airports/hotels, and then one ...
Indonesia could do without an increase in military spending that the Ministry of Defence is proposing. The country has more pressing issues, including public welfare and human rights. Moreover, the transparency and accountability to justify ...
Former Hutt City councillor Chris Milne has slithered back into the spotlight, not as a principled dissenter, but as a vindictive puppeteer of digital venom. The revelations from a recent court case paint a damning portrait of a man whose departure from Hutt City Council in 2022 was merely the ...
The Government must support Northland hapū who have resorted to rakes and buckets to try to control a devastating invasive seaweed that threatens the local economy and environment. ...
New Zealand First has today introduced a Member’s Bill that would ensure the biological definition of a woman and man are defined in law. “This is not about being anti-anyone or anti-anything. This is about ensuring we as a country focus on the facts of biology and protect the ...
After stonewalling requests for information on boot camps, the Government has now offered up a blog post right before Easter weekend rather than provide clarity on the pilot. ...
More people could be harmed if Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey does not guarantee to protect patients and workers as the Police withdraw from supporting mental health call outs. ...
The Green Party recognises the extension of visa allowances for our Pacific whānau as a step in the right direction but continues to call for a Pacific Visa Waiver. ...
The Government yesterday released its annual child poverty statistics, and by its own admission, more tamariki across Aotearoa are now living in material hardship. ...
Today, Te Pāti Māori join the motu in celebration as the Treaty Principles Bill is voted down at its second reading. “From the beginning, this Bill was never welcome in this House,” said Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader, Rawiri Waititi. “Our response to the first reading was one of protest: protesting ...
The Green Party is proud to have voted down the Coalition Government’s Treaty Principles Bill, an archaic piece of legislation that sought to attack the nation’s founding agreement. ...
A Member’s Bill in the name of Green Party MP Julie Anne Genter which aims to stop coal mining, the Crown Minerals (Prohibition of Mining) Amendment Bill, has been pulled from Parliament’s ‘biscuit tin’ today. ...
Labour MP Kieran McAnulty’s Members Bill to make the law simpler and fairer for businesses operating on Easter, Anzac and Christmas Days has passed its first reading after a conscience vote in Parliament. ...
Nicola Willis continues to sit on her hands amid a global economic crisis, leaving the Reserve Bank to act for New Zealanders who are worried about their jobs, mortgages, and KiwiSaver. ...
Today, the Oranga Tamariki (Repeal of Section 7AA) Amendment Bill has passed its third and final reading, but there is one more stage before it becomes law. The Governor-General must give their ‘Royal assent’ for any bill to become legally enforceable. This means that, even if a bill gets voted ...
Abortion care at Whakatāne Hospital has been quietly shelved, with patients told they will likely have to travel more than an hour to Tauranga to get the treatment they need. ...
Thousands of New Zealanders’ submissions are missing from the official parliamentary record because the National-dominated Justice Select Committee has rushed work on the Treaty Principles Bill. ...
Today’s announcement of 10 percent tariffs for New Zealand goods entering the United States is disappointing for exporters and consumers alike, with the long-lasting impact on prices and inflation still unknown. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fernanda Peñaloza, Senior Lecturer in Latin American Studies, University of Sydney Pope Francis’ journey from the streets of Flores, a neighbourhood in Buenos Aires, Argentina, to the Vatican, is a remarkable tale. Born in 1936, Jorge Bergoglio was raised in a ...
By Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist In recent weeks, Bougainville has taken the initiative, boldly stating that it expects to be independent by 1 September 2027. It also expects the PNG Parliament to quickly ratify the 2019 referendum, in which an overwhelming majority of Bougainvilleans supported independence. In a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor (Practice), Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University For most of this federal election campaign, politicians have said very little about violence against women and children. Now in the fourth week of the five-week campaign, Labor has released ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karinna Saxby, Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne Lee Charlie/Shutterstock Last week, the federal government announced a $10 million commitment to make Medicare more inclusive for LGBTQIA+ Australians. It aims to improve their ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fiona Macdonald, Policy Director, Centre for Future Work at the Australia Institute and Adjunct Principal Research Fellow, RMIT University Lordn/Shutterstock The Fair Work Commission has found award pay rates in five industrial awards covering a range of female-dominated occupations and industries ...
Greenpeace spokesperson Amanda Larsson says, "There comes a time when we have to stand up to the forces that conspire to put life on Earth at risk, and this is one of those moments. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthis Auger, Research Associate in Physical Oceanography, University of Tasmania NASA ICE via Flickr, CC BY Beneath the surface of the Southern Ocean, vast volumes of cold, dense water plunge off the Antarctic continental shelf, cascading down underwater cliffs to the ...
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By Caitlin Johnstone Pope Francis has died after using his Easter Sunday address to call for peace in Gaza. I don’t know who the cardinals will pick to replace him, but I do know with absolute certainty that there ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Carr, Associate Professor, Strategy and Australian Defence Policy, Australian National University In 2024, the National Defence Strategy made deterrence Australia’s “primary strategic defence objective”. With writing now underway for the 2026 National Defence Strategy, can Australia actually deter threats to ...
ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on April 22, 2025. How will a new pope be chosen? An expert explains the conclaveSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University Following the death of Pope Francis, we’ll ...
New Zealand First is pushing for the term "woman" to be defined in law as "an adult human biological female" as the party vows to fight "cancerous social engineering" and "woke ideology". ...
The What is a woman? campaign last year called for ‘woman’ to be defined as ‘an adult human female’ in all our laws, public policies and regulations and was signed by more than 23,500 people and presented to Parliament last August. We are still ...
We break down the smorgasbord of streaming services available in Aotearoa. We’re spoiled for choice when it comes to streaming services in New Zealand, but as more and more services put their subscription prices up, it’s easy to wonder: who deserves my hard earned dollar? Which platform has the best ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Darius von Guttner Sporzynski, Historian, Australian Catholic University Following the death of Pope Francis, we’ll soon be seeing a new leader in the Vatican. The conclave – a strictly confidential gathering of Roman Catholic cardinals – is due to meet in a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dominic O’Sullivan, Professor of Political Science, Charles Sturt University and Adjunct Professor Stout Research Centre, Victoria University of Wellington and Auckland University of Technology., Charles Sturt University Te Pāti Māori’s Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Hana-Rāwhiti Maipi-Clarke lead a haka with Eru Kapa-Kingi outside ...
John Minto says the United Nations has repeatedly said there are no safe places in Gaza for Palestinian civilians, where even so-called “safe zones” are systematically attacked as Israel terrorises the population to flee from the territory. ...
The bill’s primary objective was to stoke racial divisions as a means of diverting social anger in the working class over the government’s escalating attacks on living standards and public services. ...
The New Zealand Flag should be flown at half-mast all day on Tuesday 22 April and again on Wednesday 23 April 2025. The Flag should be returned to full mast at 5pm Wednesday 23 April 2025. ...
The discovery that thousands of British women were brought out to Aotearoa as servants – considered ‘surplus’ to the empire’s requirements at home – propelled journalist Michelle Duff’s new short fiction collection, which explores how women’s bodies are valued.MilkIt is the month after I have my first baby. ...
The occupation follows a five-day protest camp of over 70 people, including tamariki and kaumātua, on the Denniston Plateau, the site of Bathurst’s proposed coal expansion. ...
As part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a 20-year-old second-year university student explains her approach to spending and saving. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here.Gender: Female. Age: 20. Ethnicity: NZ European. Role: I’m a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Naomi Oreskes, Professor of the History of Science, Harvard University President Donald Trump has issued an executive order that would block state laws seeking to tackle greenhouse gas emissions – the latest salvo in his administration’s campaign to roll back United States’ ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Duncan Ian Wallace, Lecturer, Faculty of Law, Monash University f11photo/Shutterstock If you’ve ever heard the term “wage slave”, you’ll know many modern workers – perhaps even you – sometimes feel enslaved to the organisation at which they work. But here’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zareh Ghazarian, Senior Lecturer in Politics, School of Social Sciences, Monash University More than 18 million Australians are enrolled to vote at the federal election on May 3. A fair proportion of them – perhaps as many as half – will ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Houlihan, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Psychology, University of the Sunshine Coast Jorm Sangsorn/Shutterstock If you ever find yourself stuck in repeated cycles of negative emotion, you’re not alone. More than 40% of Australians will experience a mental health issue ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Penny Van Bergen, Associate Professor in the Psychology of Education, Macquarie University If you have a child born at the start of the year, you may be faced with a tricky and stressful decision. Do you send them to school “early”, in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dan Golding, Professor and Chair of the Department of Media and Communication, Swinburne University of Technology Lucasfilm Ltd™ Premiering today, the second and final season of Star Wars streaming show Andor seems destined to be one of the pop culture defining ...
With global tariffs threatening NZ’s economy, the PM is in the UK advocating for free trade while Nicola Willis prepares for a challenging budget at home, writes Catherine McGregor in today’s extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.A PM abroad Prime minister ...
Residents of a seaside suburb in Auckland have been campaigning to reverse the reversal of speed limit reductions on their main road, for fear the changes may end in a fatality. The Twin Coast Discovery Highway passes through a number of suburbs on the Hibiscus Coast. Like all major roads, ...
The former Labour leader’s entry into the race makes life more difficult for Tory Whanau, but there are silver linings for her campaign. Andrew Little launched his campaign, a new political party insisted it wasn’t a political party, and the Greens found a new star candidate. It’s been a big ...
After Easter, an obscure kind of resurrection. West Virginia University Press has announced the reissue of a book they claim is “the earliest known work of urban apocalyptic fiction”, The Doom of the Great City (1860), by British author William Delisle Hay, set in…New Zealand.The narrator tells ofthe destruction ...
A close friend and business associate of Auckland Mayor Wayne Brown, has gone from being an unpaid volunteer in the mayoral office, to a contractor paid more than $300,000 a year.Chris Mathews had managed Brown’s successful 2022 election campaign, and is now employed via his own company, to provide “specialist ...
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Unleash the COVID KRAKEN
That which should not be spoken:
The real government Strategy perchance?:
Purposely unleash COVID into the wider (90% vaccinated) population in a controlled manner (includes traffic light system for ongoing management) to infect populations with real COVID potentially to improve immunity of the vaccinated making the overall population more resilient.
Possible consequences of strategy
Benefits:
Dis-benefits
It will be interesting to see how the competing benefits / dis benefits will sum up on the ledger of life
Have we ensured testing and controls in place for the vulnerable around NZ INC are enough?
Good luck NZInc
One question remains: Is it now still the pandemic of the unvaccinated?
“RNZ:
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
The government's modelling expects up to 50 percent of the Covid-19 cases could be in vaccinated people, according to a Cabinet paper from 15 November. That is with vaccination rates of 90 percent, of which Auckland is above.
Another 25 percent of cases could be in under 12 year olds, the paper said.
This means around 75 percent of Covid-19 cases could be carried across the border by those not needing to be tested in order to leave.”
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/457933/auckland-border-testing-may-only-catch-a-quarter-of-cases-govt-report
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
Auckland border testing may only catch a quarter of cases – govt report
Ormicron makes alot of that moot as it seems a double vax doesnt really stop it at all…
There were early study reports out of south africia yesterday.
Massively reduces the probability of going to hospital with ormicron compared to not having a double vax ~70% better.
Significantly reduces the probability of becoming symptomatic to the sniffles and voughing stage after you get it – about ~33%
Doesn't change the probability of getting covid-19 – just as it didn't for alpha, beta or delta. Everyone has about a 100% probility of getting each covid-19 variant eventually.
Much better off having the single, double or triple vax than not having a vaccination. Especially as you can get any other variant after having survived any other one… there is no herd immunity.
These are vaccines pushed out in a couple of years. It usually takes decades or even centuries to develop to the point of being sterilising vaccines – ones that massively reduce the probability of infection.
Basically if you are that into wanting miracle cures – then perhaps you should try prayer. Whining to a god appears to have worked miracles in previous pandemics by filling empty mass graves.
I'll take my percentages of advantage where they are more reliable and documented.
3/4s of those in hospital in S.A are unvaccinated (Omicron ).In the US republicans are dying 7 to 1 with c.f democrats becoz of the Dons bullshit
Huh, that's a new bit of information. So chances of getting the same variant is reduced to varying degrees (and for varying periods of time) if one has already had it. But are the chances reduced for other variants, or one can easily get another variant?
It isn't new.
I'd have to look it up, but late last year there were early reports of people in the UK who'd had alpha, then getting beta. The same kinds of reports came from other regions. And for delta after having other variants as well.
There was at least one US study earlier this year that looked at the probabilities of severity of a reinfection from last years variants that in part allowed for the underlying probabilities of severity. That indicated that previous infection partially reduced the risk of severity. But that was presumably after getting enough viral load to overwhelm existing immune responses to the point where people were symptomatic…
Why, there has been quite a lot of work that shows having had a infection strongly reduces the probability of symptomatic reinfection by another variant (pre-delta). As does vaccination.
However as far as I am aware there has been little to no research that shows pre-infection strongly reduces re-infection – probably because the early detection is based on the duration of viral load. The early immune responses from vaccinations or previous infection tend to reduce the time of viral shedding – which reduces the detection period.
Looking at b-cell or t-cells that persist after infections doesn't help because you can't tell for sure which variant they were induced by.
From my understanding, all you can say is that the chance of being symptomatic by a reinfection or a break through by a variant over a vaccinated are reduced markedly. But they were never 100%. With Pfizer they were ~90%+ for reinfection by delta. With omnicron, it is looking like ~70%. There was and still is a lot of dispute over the same figures for reinfection – but it is generally estimated to be lower or similar – but more variable.
A reinfection by a variant that doesn't trigger the learned immediate immune responses increases the probability of becoming symptomatic because the viral load gets higher earlier. However the slower immune responses from previous infection or vaccination tend to limit the severity.
That appears to be what is happening with omnicron. Compared to delta… High infection and reinfection rates. High rates of early symptoms. Less probability of severe symptoms.
Um… my point was Ormicon seems so infectious that once here there will be no slowing it down vaccination or not…
I'll leave the prayer to you thanks.
That is obvious – also not my point. It is the nature of infectious diseases to spread. It is the same with Delta, Beta, and Alpha. All that changes is the rate of infection, the morbidity, and the severe consequences between variants.
In my view both statements are duplicitous lies by omission. Stop or slow what? The vaccines were never intended to stop infection. The vaccines are designed for and are still offering significiant protection against the more severe consequences of getting infected or even of just mild symptoms. If that wasn’t your point – then I strongly suggest that you need to review how you word your statements.
The current covid-19 vaccines aren’t intended to slow spread. They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction). That they often reduce the period of shedding viral load is a fortuitous by-product. Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial. Those that bothered to report that trait them at all.
The current vaccines were intended to reduce the incidence of significiant symptoms leading to hospitalisations, implicitly long covid and death. Outside of the ranks of wishful thinkers and mystics and believers in herd immunity from endemic diseases, I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
My point was that your wishful ‘thinking’ of the vaccines preventing or limiting spread was completely wrong. There hasn’t been a sterilising vaccine or treatment produced for covid-19 yet. That will be a task that will probably take decades.
The wide use of the vaccines will prevent health systems collapsing because less people will get sick enough to chew of health resources. That means that some of the social measures like lockdowns, masks, international travel, social distancing, etc can be reduced.
Your original point was
The problem with omnicron is that its spread rate, ability to reinfect, and ability to breakthrough infect vaccinated will increase hospital loads through volume – which is what you referred to.
However being vaccinated still reduces the risk to any one person of getting severe consequences from being infected compared to the risk of the unvaccinated.
Your second statement was…
Just as much of lie.
The vaccines were never intended to stop infection.
They aren’t and have never been portrayed as sterilising vaccines (ie to significantly prevent viral reproduction
Their ability to limit spread that has been reported as being low in every trial.
I find it hard to see how anyone reading the reported results of the trials could have thought that the vaccines will reduce spread.
So why the mandates?
Why are those of us who chose not to partake of these non sterilizing 'vaccines' which don't prevent spread now out of work, unable to go camping, unable to go to a restaurant, unable to participate to the fullest in everyday life?
Why do those who have been double vaccinated need to be kept safe from those of us who haven't been?
Asking respectfully for a friend.
As I discussed with you before.
If you aren't vaccinated, the probability of being infected and becoming symptomatic is higher than for the vaccinated.
The probability of the unvaccinated becoming hospitalised is far far higher than for the vaccinated. The probability of dying is higher again.
While the vaccinated are a bit less likely to infect others (shorter viral shedding periods) – that isn't what the vaccines were designed or tested for. But there are way more vaccinated than unvaccinated, therefore the probability of an unvaccinated person being infected by someone who is vaccinated is higher.
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of.
Or as I'd state it in my rough way – I'd hate to unintentionally kill someone just because they were daft or ignorant enough to offload their risk on to me. Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason.
Both are reasons to make sure that I am separated from people of shedding risk fro arbitrary reasons of to anyone who carefully reduces their risk. It is exactly the same logic as is used in trying to reduce public drunkenness, drunken driving, people waving weapons around and firing them off without thinking about unforeseen consequences, people dropping poisons into public waterways etc etc
Exactly how many times do I have to explain this to you?
Severity of illness less for vaccinated than unvaccinated. Yup. Chances of winding up in hospital or dying, for people with not too many years under their belt and with no co-morbidities, pretty minimal – whether vaccinated or not.
Vaccination makes no discernible difference in how contagious a person is. (Faster shedding equates to being more infectious but for a shorter timespan than an unvaccinated person)
Seems that excess all cause mortality rates spike when vaccine rollouts commence…
The reason for the mandates is primarily to prevent the vaccinated from chewing up medical resources that we as a nation are short of. ?
Hang on, I thought it was the unvaccinated chewing up the medical resources? I guess excluding the minority that are unvaccinated just might prevent a few catching Te Virus from a vaccinated person…?
Similarly I'd hate to increase my risk of symptomatic infection because someone doesn't get vaccinated or tested for some weird reason. ?
But you have done the right thing and had both your shots and therefore your risk of symptomatic infection is really low and since the majority of the folks around you are also double jabbed then surely the risk to you from the small number of unjabbed in your vicinity is negligible?
I'm not sure how vaccination status relates to being tested (or not)?
Are you saying the unjabbed are less likely to be tested than the jabbed? Have you proof of this? From what I am hearing the jabbed don't get tested because they truly believe the Pfizer Product prevents infection. "No, its ok it's only a cold because I'm vaccinated."
And as for risk…are you keeping up with the latest on the risk of heart damage from the mRNA products? Because the trumpeted risk of less than one person in a million people who have had Comirnaty vaccine in the European Union is now reported as being much, much higher.
. In Israel, where only BNT162b2 vaccines were used following the
product monograph with a 21 day inter-dose interval, the rate of myocarditis (using the BC definition)
following dose two among males 16-19 was 150 per 1,000,000 between December 2020 and May 2021,
although this time period encompassed both active and passive surveillance periods. 2 The rate of
myocarditis/pericarditis among males aged 12-17 who received two doses of BNT162b2 at an interval of
30 days or less in Ontario was similar at 159.7 per million doses. In the United Kingdom (UK), the
reporting rate for myocarditis after both first and second doses across all ages was estimated at 10 per
million doses of BNT162b2
As yet I have seen no update from our enormously efficient Ministry of Health that indicates they are actually keeping up. They will, when the true picture emerges of the harms done….. claim what? "We didn't know." ?
You might think it is worth the risk of being in that 10 in 1000000 group of all ages who suffer heart damage from the vaccine…being a mature person with a bit of a dodgy ticker anyway…but do you really believe that a young man with a strong, healthy heart should be mandated to take a product that could put him into the 94.5 or 159 cases per 1000000 doses risk category? (In case you're not keeping up…that is a little more than the 6 in a million doses Pertousis-Harris quotes here.)
Because that's what happening here in New Zealand. And the young people are at low to no risk from Covid..so forcing the vaccine on them is for what purpose?
The Pfizer Product is not safe. It is not effective other than probably lowering the risk of severe disease in some people for a short while.
It most definitely does not warrant being forced on everyone. Or anyone.
Especially not the children and young people.
Young Kiwis are having te vaccine forced on them? Ghastly! Hope Neve gets an exemption. Imagine using “young people” to fight your battles.
The "Pfizer product" is safe (compare, for example, the 320 Kiwis who died on NZ roads in 2020 – "Make it click"), and effective. It certainly (not "probably") lowers the risk of death or severe distress due to Covid-19 infection. Lest we forget, according to Prof. Benn (thanks for that link) vaccines are "the largest untapped resource for improving health globally", and 8.55 billion doses of vaccines against Covid-19 have been administered worldwide.
Agree 100% – I wasn't prepared to deal with the consequences of choosing not to get jabbed (including the potential health consequences of being unvaccinated if/when I'm infected with Covid-19), but good luck to the few hardy and/or brave individuals who are.
Aotearoa NZ has one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates in the world (more than 200 times lower than the UK and US, and at least 100 times lower than Sweden, Ireland and Germany) – we really don't know how lucky we are!
How awful it would have been if those 48 tragic NZ Covid deaths had been 4800, or 9600. Thanks to the team's high Covid-19 vaccination rates (~90% of those eligible), that's now unlikely – something to be grateful for, you would think.
Unite against
COVID-19
https://covid19.govt.nz
https://www.medsafe.govt.nz/COVID-19/safety-report-37.asp
The government is totally dismissing and denying that there are any adverse effects from the Pfizer Product. Complete denial.
And if you took the time to check out the paper from Ontario regarding myo and pericarditis you might just gain an insight into why it is that the vax rates are so low in the US. Clue…Moderna was heavily pushed, and a combination of Pfizer and Moderna. The rates are eye watering.
As I have asked many times…if Covid is so totally terrifying and the bodies were piling up hither and thither and there were safe and effective vaccines to stem the tide of death don't you think everyone would be trampling over each over to get a shot? They were…they they had to be cajoled, threatened, mandated.
For heaven's sake…instead of pushing slogans….think about why so many worldwide are 'vaccine' hesitant.
Your medsafe.govt.nz link details many "adverse effects", from common and mild, to rare and serious. Your "dismissing and denying" stance rather puts you in the denial camp – "complete denial", imho.
Let’s agree to disagree about the benefits and risks associated with te vaccine – glad I got it, feel safer for it, but that’s just me. If it’s any consolation, I support your choice not to get Pfizered, and wish you well.
If the vaccine reduces the chances of getting covid, then isn't slowing spread a secondary benefit because the number of people getting covid (and thus spreading it) is reduced?
For the Labour caucus to have approved that strategy there would need to be a document trail that includes the MoH and the Director General of Health. Do you think that it's more likely that,
a) such a paper trail exists and is being kept hidden but could be leaked at any time
or
b) Labour really are following public health advice and placing that in the context of managing the economy (in its neoliberal way).
Afaik there's not good evidence yet that herd immunity from infection is possible/useful. Further, delta is dangerous. Omicron or a later variant might change that but at the moment I don't think what you are suggesting would work.
I think it's much more likely that Labour are doing the best they can stuck between the delta rock and the economy hard place (and the restless population other hard place)
It's clear that elimination from hard lock downs is no longer possible.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Everyone on the planet is having to make this up as we go along. Novel virus, there is still a lot we don't know, especially how this is going to play out over time. Incredibly hard to govern under those conditions including making educated decisions based on things we just don't know.
If you can think of a better way forward other than hard lock downs, I'd like to hear that. Myself, I think they should keep the international border closed to people other than returning Kiwis. I think people wanting to come and go from NZ should be in two week MiQ. And we wait to see what Omicron does before opening the borders more than that. The Traffic Light systems seems as good a plan as any for internally, except for the specific problems that some communities face eg Māori in some areas. That needs addressing as a matter of urgency.
Colonial racism in cabinet is a simpler explanation for their decisions than a conspiracy is.
lol, yes that too.
Do you think the Māori caucus argued against the plan, or went along with it out of pragmatics?
Who knows? Maybe their silence was the price for begrudging late funding for community-led vax efforts over the last couple of months..
…begrudging late funding for community-led vax efforts …
And a good deal of that funding has gone towards various 'incentives' in the form of cash cards and vouchers and meat packs. Free sausage sizzles and barbies and the like. A little patronising…no?
It says something that these are the bribes required to get needles in the arms of the section of our community that rides low on every socio-economic marker. At least that is how it has largely played out up here in the FFN. You'd think that the endless 'mate korona' messaging and recollections of the dreadful toll of the Spanish Flu would have been sufficient to get the sleeves rolled up.
I hazard that there would have been more willing buy in had successive governments won the trust of whanau in Te Tai Tokerau by addressing more of the deeper deprivation issues. Funding for housing and $$$ for stemming the shit tide at Northland Base Hospital is a little late.
And despite the $$$…we're still in the naughty corner, and a quick cruise around the vax tents in Kaitaia today saw very bored looking workers.
Or maybe even this govt hesitated to blatantly mass prioritise health care based on skin colour?
Nothing could be more obviously racist than this – and would stand them condemned as repellent as anything the apartheid era threw up.
it's not skin colour (there are Māori who look white), it's ethnicity, because in NZ and the way we organise society Māori ethnicity is related to a range of risks that Pākehā don't have as a class.
It's also possible that Māori have vulnerabilities related to genetics too (haven't seen any discussion of this but we know that they were particularly vulnerable to new viral infections during colonisation).
Gobsmaking to have to explain this on a labour movement blog to lefties.
You're the one that's hung up on race Red, and that's nothing to do with what I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
I'm talking about except where institutional racism won't address the specific needs of people that society keeps in a subjugated position.
If there is a specific medical argument to be made then make it. But if it's just 'subjugated' – then no.
The sooner we stop dividing each other up and setting everyone against each other on stupid spurious grounds, the more likely we are to function as a healthy society.
Booster or additional vaccinations has always been on the cards.
Someone made that statement on another international site the other day and was challenged. No one could recall at what point it was "on the cards" that more than two doses would be needed, but it was generally agreed that it was not "always".
Can you pinpoint where you became certain that boosters would be needed? My recollection is that it was very much a two dose deal with Pfizer. The booster/3rd dose was initially only for immunosupressed./compromised. As it eventuated that the Pfizer Product was largely useless after 6 months, (Israel…) rolled out boosters.
But I don't recall it was always going to be third shots or boosters.
Might be a semantic difference. By on the cards I meant there was always a chance that the two shots would be insufficient. Pretty sure I’ve been saying right from the start that I was doubtful that there would be a silver bullet vaccine. I remember conversations last year with science-is-god people, who had a huge amount of faith in medical science to solve covid.
it’s a fair question though. Haven’t they know since trials though that there is waning immunity? And of course, the perceived need for booster shots is as much about how the pandemic is playing out. I honestly don’t think anyone can predict what’s going to happen, am sceptical of people who try and assert predictions, and pay more attention to people saying this is the state of play and based on that this is what I think is most likely to happen.
I wouldn’t want to be in government or high up in MoH trying to make major decisions under such circumstances.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/12/upset-hone-harawira-claims-police-vetted-iwi-led-checkpoint-group-members.html
Umm … Hone, e hoa, Gang Members? Really? Come off the grass, bro.
Have you seen the gang involvement in the protests? We need people who get the culture to get them on board with covid harm minimisation.
The Head Hunters can stop your car first.
What's more likely:
a) The collective organising the check points have found selected gang leader to be part of the team
or
b) Harawira lets the Head Hunters run one of the check points.
Do you actually know or are just making that up?
Not trying to be smart here, I'd actually like to know what the gang involvement is.
The whole gangs are irredemiably evil shit and should always and forever be shunned is getting tedious.
'The whole gangs are irredemiably evil shit and should always and forever be shunned is getting tedious.'
Yes they and yes they should
that's how you perpetuate gangs.
Remember to let them know where you came from and how long you expect to be away, just to be helpful
Hone Harawira gets the legislation he wants rushed through under urgency last week, gets the checkpoints he whined about, gets the negative proof just today of a small handful of non-double vaxxers trying to enter out of tens of thousands, and then tries to tell off the Police for not letting gang members pull over cars and interrogate the public.
His gang members can fuck off back to the holes they came from or at very least concentrate their efforts on the morons in the far north causng the issue in the first place: the unvaccinated.
The roadblocks will stop shortly. Good job.
Hone Harawira will fade from TV profile again. Good job.
Hone is doing a lot more and investing a lot more of his time in an effort to keep folk safe than you Ad. Sounds like your the fuckwit.
Tru dat, he a busy bro for da right reasons, but he also likes to ensure he stays in da news. Not one to hide his light under a bushell. Don’t make no sense having gang members on the checkpoints.
Gang members have developed bad habits of organising criminal activity, shooting at police, & at other gang members, & too many like to monster & intimidate people & other gangs. Best thing is to at least vet the buggers for any with a track record of these propensities.
Hone knows that. He’s keeping his profile high with nga iwi & nga Māori elsewhere, like a modern day Hone Heke. Imo.
" His gang members can fuck off back to the holes they came from "
Aint that the truth!
100% agree
Gangs are growing where are they going to live ,They all can't live in your place of work PR.
No govt has stopped gangs they are a symtom of our selfish society.
When you have look at the state inquiry into child abuse by the Church and State the number of gang members especially gang leaders created from that level of sexual , violent abuse ,neglect neglect of education neglect of a safe environment,neglect of love.
You can see why criminal gangs prolificate with members who have no empathy or ability to change nasty intergenerational dysfunction.
The dept of corrections is a joke just a temporary warehouse where criminals learn to be better criminals the nastier criminal you are gives a promotion in the hierarchy .prisons are the Head Office of the gangs.
only takes one.
Is it voluntary or paid …work?
Don't know. There may be some government koha involved. There may be some kind of authorisation by the police required to give legal power to these individuals to stop cars and demand documents or evidence from the occupants.
Luxon complaining on One news that Grant just wants to spend money, after Grant said health needs a lot more money spent on it. “ We’re not wasting money on the health system “ has a real vote winning ring to it!
Yea, with the nodding head of Bridges shows how austerity politics will be back on the Nats playbook
Yes the old 'they are irresponsible ,spend,spend,spend….we are a safe pair of hands,sound economic managers….same , reliable theme .
The people of the Freedom and Choice group and the NZ Outdoors Party are entitled to their particular beliefs. Sort of like people are entitled to their mental health problems.
When it ends in things like this?
"A Covid-19 testing station in Richmond, near Nelson, has been closed indefinitely after abuse of staff reached unsafe levels.
Police were called to the testing site at the Richmond Showgrounds on Sunday after staff were subjected to verbal attacks from a small group of people who did not believe Covid was a threat, Nelson Bays Primary Health general manager Charlotte Etheridge said."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/127290738/covid19-testing-station-closed-after-threats-to-staff-escalate
The Herald mischief making.
A headline claiming the police are going to lose at least 600 frontline police officers due to the decision to mandate staff vaccinations turns out to be the claim of one anonymous unvaccinated police officer. Near the bottom you get to find out the Commissioner plus a few others high rankers have rejected the claim outright:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/police-warn-of-major-repercussions-as-unvaxxed-officers-face-being-stood-down/BC6Z6D2HFSLU4ZXFLKXWT6KMJ4/
fuck that's low even for te herald.
Finance Minister delivers a win for the Greens:
It's local democracy vs national democracy. I counted 12 mayors in the protest.
So the protestors represent less than a quarter of the nation.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/three-waters-mayors-coalition-hopes-to-unchain-reforms-talk-about-alternatives/DVG2QIOYVDBBRKQONO3FKJAMBU/
Not all mayor's go to protests I think you will find that most mayor's are against the mandate.
Only a few green mayor's are to the fore.
Like Aron Hawkins Dunedin but he will face a public backlash as Dunedin rate payers who have forked out $100's of millions to modernize and upgrade sewage and potable water will end up paying for Auckland and Wellington's and many other municipalities.While paying $100's of millions of debt borrowed to fix Dunedin.
One of the reasons Worboys doesn't have frogs coming out of the tap is frogs live in healthy clean water. Not in the Oroua River.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/pou-tiaki/300357439/iwi-dreams-of-restoring-life-force-to-its-degraded-river
Every time I read of opposition to 3 waters, opponents focus on water going in, a little quieter about the dead creeks, rivers and lakes around the motu.
Sigh.. I keep misspelling the Ormicron word. Mostly as Omnicron …. And I can't add it to the autospeller.
I must find time to work on fixing the comment editor this weekend – despite the urgent need (by someone) for Xmas shopping.
🙁
I was about to ask you, if you have some time over the holidays (😛), can you please fix the phone site so we comment and track replies on the same version (I prefer the desktop, but either would be fine). Atm I have to swap both versions as it's not possible to comment from the desktop one, and the mobile one doesn't have the Replies list and is generally harder to follow.
*Omicron
I remember it best as O+micron