Daily review 16/09/2022

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, September 16th, 2022 - 11 comments
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Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

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11 comments on “Daily review 16/09/2022 ”

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  1. Poission 1
    16 September 2022 at 8:02 pm

    14 Years after Lehmans Bros default,we see not a Lehmans moment underway.

    Germany readies to nationalize Uniper ( a company mostly owned by the Finnish taxpayer) ,as well as VNG ,and SEFE, and seizes Rosnefts 3 refineries in Germany.

    https://twitter.com/SStapczynski/status/1570654949826252800?cxt=HHwWgMDS0d2Wi8wrAAAA

    EDF in France takes 25B hit,prior to nationalization.

    Sterling hits low of 1.13 on US cross lowest since 1985 on anniversary of black Wednesday (Soros)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

    Kiwi $ goes into fall as Citigroup calls US$as safe haven.

    • Ad 1.1
      17 September 2022 at 5:54 pm

      How many NZ price spikes or blackout failures would it need to entertain that scale of actual control – as distinct from 51% state shareholder control?

      Not that I'd wish for market failure on the German scale, but we’re well due to think the unthinkable.

      • Poission 1.1.1
        17 September 2022 at 6:34 pm

        The market fail risks,would be shocks from either volcanic or eq such as AF8,where emergency powers exist ( similar to the pandemic when the RBNZ stopped bank dividends)

        The European problem has shown,that their policy construction (for FF replacement etc) has essentially been bullshit,they have spent in essence a trillion,replacing baseload Nuc,and coal with Gas and intermittent generation such as wind and solar,with an interconnected grid ( 520 m consumers) and little regard to local load.

        Here the problem is north of the Waikato,and especially north of the harbour bridge,with both go round transmission needed,to capture more grid capacity as solid fuel heating gets replaced by Electricity.

        • Ad 1.1.1.1
          17 September 2022 at 7:43 pm

          Genesis is covering that northern Waikato risk with the Market Security Option it is putting out to market at Huntly.

          New Huntly power contracts a sign of things to come | BusinessDesk

          Would also be great to see some redundancy into Auckland from Transpower.

          • Poission 1.1.1.1.1
            17 September 2022 at 8:30 pm

            Transpowers replacement and expansion for waikato go round,is debt funded,which will add to transmission costs for consumers.to enable a low cost electrical economy,the shareholder needs to reinvest the dividend and tax (by a capital expansion) this will constrain inflation by removing cost.

            • Ad 1.1.1.1.1.1
              18 September 2022 at 3:39 am

              Is removing the dividend the reinvention of Transpower that would make a difference to energy security?

              Microsoft Word – Briefing to Incoming Minister for State owned Enterprises 2017 (beehive.govt.nz)

              "Dividend projection

              Our dividend has been set at $165 million per annum over the RCP2 regulatory period which has leverage reducing from 70% to 67% by 2019/20. Future dividends levels will be re-visited once the regulatory funding baselines and rate of returned for RCP3 are set in 2019."

              Comparing this amount to what they spend every year over all their whole assets, it doesn't seem unreasonable. Surely EA determining that degree of profit is appropriate.

              • Poission …
                18 September 2022 at 10:02 am

                Retaining the dividend and refunding the tax paid ( as is the case with the NZ super fund ) retains capital for expenditure in the first instance.

                Upgrading the transmission wires as part of normal replacement with higher efficiency lines (lower transmission loss ) will in time be the equivalent of a hydro station the size of Aviemore.

                Reduced transmission loss and distribution loss (local network) from distributed solar where it is used on site,increases the capacity by reducing load.

  2. Ad 2
    17 September 2022 at 5:50 pm

    Tajikistan v Kyrgystan, Armenia v Azerbaijan

    Let's see if Russia has the paratroopers left to pop in like they did for Kazakhstan in January this year.

    Those battles will probably boil down to a simmering cross-border beef unless there's some serious funding going into destabilising the entire Russian defence treaty system.

    No need for Mission Impossible CIA paranoia when they're doing it for themselves.

    A very, very bad time to see more cracks around Russia.

    The world would not be a fun place if Russia implodes and it is not to be wished for.

  3. Ad 3
    17 September 2022 at 8:11 pm

    OMG is there even such a thing as 'conflict of interest' in Queenstown?

    Crisis Hits Resort Town Of Have And Have-Nots | Newsroom

    • Graeme 3.1
      17 September 2022 at 11:02 pm

      A very good summation of the campaign and issues.

      Re conflicts, it's a lot better than it was 10 or 20 years ago, finding a lawyer in town used to be hard as everyone would have conflicting clients, accountants same. Only slightly better now.

      Boult was completely buggered as Mayor by perceived and actual conflicts, and a couple of the current candidates will find it hard too. Some of our previous Mayors were appalling, but everyone knew and either took the money or abused them, surprised no one got hurt or worse.

      Town's got some huge challenges deal with if the projections keep heading upwards and the place will grind to a halt. It more likely that the development economy (economic diversification in ZQN = building more houses to house more people to build more houses) will fall to bits, probably quite spectacularly, when costs meet contract price on a lot of projects nearing completion and settlement. The incoming council will be more likely dealing with an economic disaster than too strong an economy. Irony that most other districts can only dream of that problem.

      Economic diversification is something that comes up here at the end of every cycle as people's social aspirations have obviously exceeded their earning capacity in Queenstown. Various schemes and agencies are proposed to save their sorry arses, then they are sold up and gone. But that's where the votes are this election.

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