Daily review 27/01/2022

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, January 27th, 2022 - 44 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

44 comments on “Daily review 27/01/2022 ”

  1. In Vino 1

    Having slogged through all Open Mike after reading Werewolf this morning, I am a little surprised that nobody seems to have taken cognisance of a good article by Gordon Campbell.

    http://werewolf.co.nz/2022/01/gordon-campbell-on-rapid-antigen-testing/

    It appears that despite Hosking's pathetic rant in Herald this morning, Oz has turned out yet another disaster.

  2. Ed 2

    Nothing significant is going to change in this country until we get rid of the neoliberal laws that were passed in the 1980s and 1990s.

  3. Dennis Frank 3

    The first 1News Kantar Public poll for 2022 showed party support for Labour down one to 40%, National up four to 32%, ACT down three to 11%, while the Green Party was steady on 9%.

    Labour: 40% (down 1 percentage points)

    National: 32% (up 4pp.)

    ACT: 11% (down 3pp.)

    Green Party: 9% (steady)

    New Zealand First: 2% (down 1pp.)

    Te Pāti Māori: 2% (up 1pp.)

    The Opportunities Party (TOP): 2% (up 1pp.)

    New Conservative: 1% (steady)

    Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: 1% (steady)

    Don’t know: 7% (steady)

    Refused: 4% (up 2pp.)

    Preferred PM

    Jacinda Ardern: 35% (down 4pp.)

    Christopher Luxon: 17% (up 13pp.)

    David Seymour: 6% (down 5pp.)

    Winston Peters: 1% (steady)

    Chlöe Swarbrick: 1% (down 1pp.)

    Don't know: 28% (up 2pp.)

    None/refused: 5% (steady)

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2022/01/27/poll-national-rises-arderns-preferred-pm-result-drops/

    • Anne 3.1

      That's 49% Lab and Greens and 43% Nat and ACT. So, the so-called left block 6% ahead of the right block with the Maori Party in between. I would hazard a guess the MP would go with Lab and Greens at crunch time.

      My take: the lying, political disinformation, dirty stories about Jacinda and Clarke and the politicising of the pandemic by both Nat and ACT have not had the impact they may have hoped for.

      It's up to Ardern and Co. to fight fire with fire over the next 18 months. If they don't then they will lose in 2023.

      • Dennis Frank 3.1.1

        A lot will hinge on the budget. I see it same as you but Labour are vulnerable now, and ought to shift out of pandemic focus into a strategy for retaining public support by demonstrating achievements on other policy fronts.

        Cost of living and inequality differential being what the budget will have to address. If they don't design a remedial strategy & lock it in during the next month or two winter will probably bring parity between Labour & National.

        • RosieLee 3.1.1.2

          Housing, housing, housing. Get business and "investment" out of the rental market. Stop talking about "getting on the property ladder" and "mum and dad investors". Build state houses for renters. Affordable rents. Put CGT on all but the family home and bach. Tax empty houses. Get the financiers and property investors out of the "housing market" Stop dubious immigrants from buying properties unless they are here and living in them. Housing, housing, housing. Is this really a Labour government?

          • Blazer 3.1.1.2.1

            yes

          • Gezza 3.1.1.2.2

            Ardern ruled out a CGT under her leadership in April 2019.

            “I genuinely believe there are inequities in our tax system that a capital gains tax in some form could have helped to resolve. That’s an argument Labour has made as a party since 2011.

            However after almost a decade campaigning on it, and after forming a government that represented the majority of New Zealanders, we have been unable to build a mandate for a capital gains tax. While I have believed in a CGT, it’s clear many New Zealanders do not. That is why I am also ruling out a capital gains tax under my leadership in the future.”

            https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/government-will-not-implement-capital-gains-tax

            Would be a very risky move for to talk about implementing one now unless signalling she’s leaving politics.

          • mary_a 3.1.1.2.3

            @ Rosie Lee (3.1.1.2) … Agree. However the present time might not be appropriate to introduce these policies. Maybe further down the track, definitely.

            If my memory serves me right, I think it was Winston Peters/NZ First who put the kybosh on a capital gains tax.

        • UncookedSelachimorpha 3.1.1.3

          "Cost of living and inequality differential being what the budget will have to address"

          Labour has a solid track record of ignoring both of these and instead backs free market capitalism 100%

          The only thing I am sure of, is that National and ACT would be worse in both cases.

          • Blazer 3.1.1.3.1

            'The only thing I am sure of, is that National and ACT would be worse in both cases.'

            Yes =the frustrating..reality…lesser of two evils..option.

    • dv 3.2

      Basically Luxon is where Collins was on,

      Nate got some back from act.

      Rest is in sample error.

      • observer 3.2.1

        And just to confirm that …

        One News poll:

        Sept – National + ACT 40. (Collins)

        Nov – National + ACT 42. (Collins)

        Jan – National + ACT 43. (Luxon)

        That's not a honeymoon, it's a one night stand and then lasting regrets.

        • McFlock 3.2.1.1

          lovely turn of phrase, there

        • Gezza 3.2.1.2

          Seats

          Labour: 51

          National: 41

          ACT Party: 14

          Green Party: 12

          Māori Party: 2

          Labour + Greens – 63
          National + Act – 55

          Greens are in a stronger position to demand more.

          • RosieLee 3.2.1.2.1

            The Greens have lost their mojo. They are just as neolib as all the others. Shaw still recovering from his junket?

        • joe90 3.2.1.3

          Wondering whether or not we'll get to see a moping, third floor walk of shame.

        • dv 3.2.1.4

          Cute

          [removed “Cute” from user name field – Incognito]

          • Incognito 3.2.1.4.1

            Moderation note for you.

            • dv 3.2.1.4.1.1

              opps sorry

            • Muttonbird 3.2.1.4.1.2

              This is actually a bug. Hasn't happened to me recently but it used to a lot.

              For some reason the curser will reset to the Name (Required) field as user starts typing in the comment field.

              User sees no words in the comment field so re-clicks there and starts typing anew. User doesn't check Name (Required) box for the extra words added to the Name field by the bug reset.

              User pushes Submit which results in corrupted Name field.

              Moderator cleans up, adding extra work for moderator (and weirdly, guilt for User).

      • Grantoc 3.2.2

        Amazing insight that the poll result is a factual statement re National but the rest of the poll is a 'sample error' re Labour. A really good analysis – not. You dont know what your talking about.

        • observer 3.2.2.1

          It is reasonable to conclude it is highly probable that support has gone from ACT to National. Not from Labour to National (net, of course).

          That's what margin of error means, essentially.

    • mauī 3.3

      Disappointing not to see Leighton Baker in the preferred PM standings.

    • swordfish 3.4

      .

      Slow attrition / closing the gap since last Election:

      ……………. Labour …. National …………. Lab+Green vs Nat+ACT

      2020

      Feb …………. 41% ………….46% ……………………46% …………… 48% …. (Right +2)

      May ………… 59% ………….29% ……………………64% …………… 31% …. (Left +33)

      June ………… 50% ………….38% ……………………56% ……………. 41% …. (Left +15)

      July ………….. 53% ………….32% ……………………58% …………… 37% …. (Left +21)

      Mid Sep ……..48% ………….31% …………………..54% …………… 38% …. (Left +16)

      Late Sep ……. 47% ………….33% ………………….54% …………… 41% …. (Left +13)

      Early Oct …… 47% ………….32% …………………..53% …………… 40% …. (Left +13)

      Mid Oct …….. 46% ………….31%……………………54% …………… 39% …. (Left +15)

      Dec …………… 53% ………….25%…………………….61% …………… 33% …. (Left +28)

      2021

      March ………… 49% ………….27%……………………58% …………… 35% …. (Left +23)

      May ……………. 46% ………….29%……………………54% …………… 38% …. (Left +16)

      Sep …………….. 43% ………….26%……………………51% …………… 40% …. (Left +11)

      Nov …………….. 41% ………….28%……………………50% …………… 42% …. (Left +8)

      2022

      Jan ……………… 40% ………….32%……………………49% …………… 43% …. (Left +6)

      • swordfish 3.4.1

        .

        Again … margin closing … (not much more than half of intitial Ardern-Collins gap … & Ardern now down to the kind of Preferred PM rating that Key experienced just before he resigned.

        ……. Ardern …. Bridges …. Muller Collins Luxon Gap

        2020

        Feb …. .. 42% ……….11% …………………………………………………. +31

        May … .. 63% ………… 5% ………………………………………………… +58

        June … .. 54% …………………… .. 13%…………………………………. +41

        July ……. 54% ………………..……………………..20% ………………….. +34

        Mid Sep..54% ……………..…………….….……18% ……………………. +36

        Late Sep. 54% ………………………………..…..23% ……………………. +31

        Early Oct 50% …………………….…………..…..23% ……………………. +27

        Mid Oct .. 55% …………………………………… 20% ……………………. +35

        Dec ….… .. 58%……………………………………..12% ……………………. +46

        2021

        March … 43% ……………………………………….8% ……………………. +35

        May …….48% ……………………………………….9% ……………………. +39

        Sep …….. 44% ………………………………………5% ……………………. +39

        Nov …….. 39% ………………………………………5% ……………………. +34

        2022

        Jan ……… 35% …………………………………………………. 17% …….. +18

        • Muttonbird 3.4.1.1

          Interesting the next smallest gap, 27 points in October 2020, was immediately before Labour wiped the floor with National in forming the first one party majority since MMP began.

          Ardern is probably quite tired right now but when back up to full speed she will be unstoppable again.

          John Keys had come out of ponytailgate the year before he quit, Dirty Politics too in that term, and there was the embarrassing failed flag referendum earlier in 2016. He clearly wasn't interested in New Zealand by the time he slunk off. Most decent Kiwis knew it.

          Now all he does is tell Luxon what to say, and moan about MIQ.

  4. observer 4

    Shock poll news: nothing happens in poll shock.

    (see yesterday's prediction)

    By definition, things not changing is not news, so the Greens never get a banner headline for having a consistent support base. But it is a significant underlying story: the old "will they fall under 5%?" (elections past) is not an issue, and Labour aren't gaining from them at all.

    Another story that won't be a story, though it should be … nothing at all for the protesting fringe. Not the New Cons, not the Tamakis, not even NZ First. They are noise without votes.

  5. Byd0nz 5

    Political poll: Jacinda Ardern's numbers slump, Christopher Luxon up 13 points.

    This is the Headline on RNZR News. Slump! Really. This is the type of inflated headline mainstream media use. No wonder people call the news media BS News, it certainly shows their bias.

    • Anne 5.1

      It was a given Luxon was going to soar into the stratosphere.(sarc.) All new leaders of the two main parties get a big bump at the start. One would think the pollie journos would know that but, with a few exceptions, the appalling ignorance of political history has hit an all time low.

  6. Patricia Bremner 6

    Well now we know why they were promoting Nicola. He has not made any difficult decision and Harete Hipango will haunt him. Jacinda has had to make many hard decisions.
    Today a voter was asked who “Probably National cause I am, but I like what Jacinda has done”

    • observer 6.1

      I thought that woman was great! (TV1 news, vox pop). As was the editor who picked that clip.

      So much "news" about so-called public opinion is driven by a tiny minority frothing on social media or brandishing their astroturf signs. But we aren't in Trumpland, most people aren't like that at all, and that voter just summed it up: likes Jacinda, votes National, that's it. Lovely.

  7. Muttonbird 7

    Anyone know the deal with costs for PCR tests?

    I've been asked by a client, who hasn't organised their RAT testing regime yet, to produce a negative PCR test by Feb 03 before getting access to their premises in order to work.

    My understanding is if you present at a testing centre you need to be either symptomatic or have been at a place of interest, or been a close contact. I am none of those things and I'm not going to lie to health authorities in order to save my client’s ass/wallet.

    I've asked the question of the client if I can pass the costs of the test on to them and am awaiting an answer. Govt website says:

    You may need to pay for a test if it is to enter another country or for surveillance testing by the business sector, which is outside the mandatory requirements.

    • RosieLee 7.1

      And what about the RATs? Do ordinary punters have to pay for those too? At what price?

      • Muttonbird 7.1.1

        I have several similar clients and they have RAT testing underway already. In some cases workers are RAT tested randomly, and sometimes the whole crew is tested.

        Today, I was at one location and at about 12pm everyone was getting their daily results by txt.

        Those tests are at no cost for all workers.

        It's just that this particular client hasn't been able to set up that regime and is asking contractors to negative PCR test in its place.

        My point is that I'm not going to lie to the testing centre about why I am there (in order to get a free test) and am waiting on a answer from that client about whether I can charge back the cost, about $150.

  8. Joe90 8

    During a housing crisis this toe sucker with the silver spoon in his gob reckons Kāinga Ora is an example of wasteful spending.

    /

    https://twitter.com/nzherald/status/1486547490610597889

    • Muttonbird 8.1

      "Rising inflation leads to rising interest rates which makes it even tougher for people to get ahead", Luxon said.

      Get ahead of what, other people?

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