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Daily review 28/01/2020

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, January 28th, 2020 - 63 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

63 comments on “Daily review 28/01/2020”

  1. adam 1

    Just wow, the mainstream media and woke left are just a bit truly nutty. 



  2. Andre 2

    Why Sanders is very unlikely to be the nominee – the Des Moines Register boils it down to two sentences:

    While Elizabeth Warren and Sanders are in lockstep on many positions, concerns about Warren's potential for divisiveness are magnified with Sanders. As a self-identified democratic socialist, someone who has set himself apart from the Democratic Party during his congressional career, let alone breaking bread with Republicans, could he build the consensus needed to govern?

    Indeed. As CNN's Chris Cillizza goes on to observe:

    Here's the most curious thing about all of this: Sanders' hardcore supporters like the idea that he isn't a going-along-to-get-along guy. They like that he isn't friends with a bunch of Washington establishment types — the sort of people who have failed to deliver progressive solutions for decades. And he won't be that sort of president either. Which is a good thing, not a bad thing in their eyes.

    Yes, 2016 showed the middle finger voter segment is a surprisingly large minority. But the turd tornado currently besplattering the walls of the Oval Office has that voter segment pretty well locked down. No-one can deny he's delivering the chaos and vandalism so cherished by the middle finger voters.

    So it seems a bit counterproductive to pander to the tantrums of those middle finger voters in the hopes of flipping a small sliver of them when doing so very likely alienates a much larger wedge of voters that want to see actual progress.

    • mickysavage 2.1

      Do you think that he would eat into Trump's core supporters more than any other Democrat nominee?

      • Andre 2.1.1

        No.

        My reckons are the Fifth Avenue Fraud has a core of about 25ish% support from those who will only vote for whatever has an (R) next to its name, even when it's the 3 weeks gone mouldering corpse of a dead brothel-owner. Then there's another 10ish% support of middle finger voters quite happy with the way he's trashing DC and the rest of government. Then he's got another 10ish% that aren't hard-core but willing to hold their noses as long as their core priorities of tax cuts, reactionary judges, and gratuitous cruelty to minorities are satisfied while not actually trashing the government so far that the services they like get cut off.

        If you look at his approval rating, for the first year it dipped down into the upper 30s, which I interpret as that non-hardcore group thinking "this putz can't even get through simple tax cuts even with a House and Senate majority". Then the next time his approval rating dropped below the noise band was the government shutdown at the start of 2019. But Bernie isn't going to pull from that group since he won't be appointing reactionary judges or offering tax cuts.

        So while there's a lot of noise about potential Trump to Bernie flippers, I suspect they're a miniscule portion of the electorate.

        • pat 2.1.1.1

          not a bad assessment IMO….as much as Id like to see Bernie as Pres I cant see it happening, and the other Dem options dont inspire confidence either…but you never know. maybe 4+ Rep Senators may cross and Trump may end up impeached

          • Andre 2.1.1.1.1

            Pedant alert:

            Don Drumpfeone is already impeached. That happened in the House.

            It will take at least four Repug senators to vote to hear testimony from more witnesses. Given the leaks from Bolton's upcoming book over the weekend, it seems there's at least a fighting chance that might happen.

            It will take at least 20 Repug senators to join all 47 Dems and vote for conviction and removal to successfully excise America's prolapsed rectum from the Oval Office. I reckon my chances in tomorrow's Powerball are quite a lot higher. Although if McTurtle announced it's going to be a secret ballot, I might revise those odds.

            • pat 2.1.1.1.1.1

              K…yes already impeached, my mistake….meant convicted.

              And if 4 + do join in requiring witnesses then anything may happen…not the show trial and exoneration predicted…whether enough to get 20 Rep to cross maybe not (and I cant see Trump doing a Nixon and resigning) but it may have more influence on the election outcome

          • Obtrectator 2.1.1.1.2

            Needs a lot more than four to cross, doesn't it?  Hasn't it got to be a two-thirds majority?

            • pat 2.1.1.1.2.1

              needs 4 to allow witnesses to be called…as Andre noted it needs 2/3 to convict, hence my comments

               

    • adam 2.2

      Wow worst argument ever. Obviously not interested in policy. People actually want substance and change – not waffle and pc crap. 

      But worst of all, it's just the same bullshit peddled by the people who went on to lose to trump. trump a blowhard tv personality, and this centrist, I know best, elitist crap is what gave him the victory – not some rump of imagined middle fingers. 

      Mind you once again we are left with people who think the 'left' is identity politics – and not economics, and policy. The longer Sanders leads the polls the attacks are just going to get worse I suppose. 

       

      • joe90 2.2.1

        So it's okay for Bernie to betray everyone he claims to fight for by cuddling racist, sexist, transphobic bigot Joe Rogan because sharing a big tent requires including those who do not share every one of our beliefs, while always making clear that we will never compromise our values.

        But anyone who rejects your St Bernie schtick is an elitist, centrist, I know best neo-liberal shill playing at identity politics and they're directly responsible for tRump's victory.

        • millsy 2.2.1.1

          Rogan is on record as supporting LGBT rights, universal health care, the right to access reproductive Heath services and a UBI.  Whilst he probably has a lot of views that I don't agree with, it is unfair to lump him in with Peterson, Milo and Lehmann.

          • joe90 2.2.1.1.1

             Rogan regularly provides a platform for the hateful rhetoric of people like Yiannopoulos, Peterson, Molyneux, Alex Jones, James Damore and Steven Crowder.

            And Rogan fan gurl Lehmann reckons he's the Walter Cronkite of our era.

            • roblogic 2.2.1.1.1.1

              Deplatforming people for holding offensive opinions is a case of the "cure" being worse than the disease. The elitist media loves to push identity politics instead of substantive change for the working class. And you've fallen for it

            • adam 2.2.1.1.1.2

              Yeah Joe Rogan believes in free speech – so that means even giving a platform to people you don't like. 

              Rogan is friends with Alex Jones,  and is worried about Alex. I would be to if I knew someone who slavishly repeats conspiracy theories, and repeats all sorts of nasty woke comments coming off twitter. 

              Rogan also had on Tulsi Gabbard, Bernie Sanders and Andrew Yang. He had on radical leftists and moderates like Bill Maher.  

              Scientist, musicians and fighters. Rogan interviews a wide range of people. 

              The problem is people who pull this whole holier than thou thing – when their not holy, virtuous or offering real opinion.  Just slavish PC identity politics crap. Looking for somthing negative so you can bring people down. 

              Did you miss why so many people hate the left – this is it. The bullshit attacks on people for not being perfect. 

              It's rank low shit. 

            • Kevin 2.2.1.1.1.3

              And EVERY Dem candidate tried to get on his show.

              Will Klobuchar and Warren dismiss the NYT endorsement because they cheerlead the Iraq war? I doubt it.

          • Bg 2.2.1.1.2

            But identity politics is what the left do best

    • millsy 2.3

      It probably wouldn't be a bad thing for Biden to win the nomination. For a start, if Trump wins again, the DNC cannot blame the party for moving too far to the left.

  3. James 3

    A sanders nomination is the best trump could want for. 
     

    like Corbyn he is unelectable. 

    • Muttonbird 4.1

      But Mallard was merely outing a sexual harasser in parliament. Your previous comments show very little sympathy for such men but in this case you defend him.

      That is inconsistent.

      • James 4.1.1

        He said that the man was “a danger” and said “we're talking about serious sexual assault, well that for me, that's rape. That's the impression I got from the report, yes."

        There is nothing to substantiate those comments about the man. 
         

         

        • Muttonbird 4.1.1.1

          That wasn't your position on the case of the Labour staffer who has had all accusations against him dismissed.

          You were quite clear that it was all true.

          • James 4.1.1.1.1

            Actually they weren’t “dismissed” they came back as not established which is quite different. 
             

            Regardless- the guy mallard made comment on isn’t a rapist and clearly was not a danger to women on the grounds. The assault (which he was to use your words) was  “dismissed” and mallard new this when he called him a rapist and a danger and had him removed from his job. 
             

            see the difference mutts ?

            • Muttonbird 4.1.1.1.1.1

              No I don't, because there is zero difference. You defend one 'rapist' but attack another 'rapist' solely based on the perceived political affiliation of the participants in the case.

              This is just one example of your extraordinary hypocrisy.

              • James

                Show me one bit of evidence that the person mallard (and you) called a rapist in fact raped anybody. 

                bet you can’t. 

                • Muttonbird

                  I guess it's the use of your favourite word, "rape" which is causing you anxiety on this.

                  This clown is pretty brave. The lawsuit must see his identity revealed at some point, surely.

                  • James

                    So you are ok with people being called a rapist if there is zero evidence that they have and in fact evidence they did not ?

                     

        • gsays 4.1.1.2

          Do we know the name of this man?

           

          How can one be defamed if one isn't known?

  4. gsays 5

    Anyone here have an idea of the death per number infected, of the current corona outbreak?

    I understand the toll is @ 80. How many have been infected?

     

    Some light relief:

    • Poission 5.1

      John Hopkins has a geographical map showing the regions and distribution.

      https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

      4474 confirmed cases,106 deaths.Increased testing and reporting will show an exponential curve for a week or so before slowing to a cubic increase.

      Left hand side shows the PRC figures with other locations below,expect the bottom (yellow) to follow upwards as well.

      The progressions suggest that the caseloads ie infected will exceed that of sars within a few days but it has a lower mortality.

      • gsays 5.1.1

        Thank you my fishy friend.

        Akin to Sars, Mers.

        Beware yr chums with a 'summer' cold.

      • Kevin 5.1.2

        Where are Johns Hopkins getting their data from?

        I wouldn't imagine an authoritarian regime like China would be too keen on releasing that kind of information.

        • Poission 5.1.2.1

          China releases its data once per day,they have become more open with release as testing becomes better (too big to hide)Other overeseas releases are made by various countries health body.

    • In Vino 6.1

      My serious question, which I put last night with no response, is:

      One can catch the virus, become infectious to others, yet it can be 14 days before one shows any symptoms and gets quarantined.

      If this is true, we must assume that all new arrivals may already have been infected, and quarantine them 14 days before letting them go public.

      But nobody is doing that.

      If the 14 days infectious before symptoms show story is true, we have absolutely no chance of stopping this virus from going everywhere.

      We just have to hope that it is a mild virus, and that those who succumb can rapidly recover.  That is how it looks to me.

      But imagine a deadly virus that was contagious for 2 weeks before any symptoms showed in the carrier…  We would all be dead.

      • McFlock 6.1.1

        The Chinese are doing that, because essentially they're faced with first-degree transmission.

        If NZ shut the borders now, it would have to be for everyone, because who knows if in the previous two weeks someone bumped into someone who bumped into someone who bumped into someone who had the strain? All those airports, train stations, streets, stores…

        So if we closed off the borders now, it would be everything. The economic impact would kill more people than coronavirus seems to, by far.

        Besides, incubation period is just one measure in the R0 – long incubation with low transmission still means a manageable R0.

        • weka 6.1.1.1

          that assumes trying to get zero cases in NZ rather than trying to limit the number.

          • McFlock 6.1.1.1.1

            Yes, because I suspect that as soon as a single undetected patient is walking around for a couple of weeks, with this one the main transmission will be local. Two weeks of asymptomatic contagiousness would make contact tracing incredibly difficult if they're not in a highly structured environment.

            edit: so they might only infect 2 or 3 other people, but those people will be sprinkled out over those two weeks.
            Unlike something that might infect ten people, but it’s only in the group you encountered since monday so you’ll have a much higher chance of tracking them all down without needlessly worrying uninfected people.

            • Poission 6.1.1.1.1.1

              In Germany the first case is problematic.

              The Bavarian case is the first known example of the infection spreading outside of China between people who are not closely related.

              https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-first-case-of-coronavirus/a-52169007

              • McFlock

                Maybe not:

                Health authorities said that the German man caught the infection from a Chinese person who had visited his company.

                That covers a multitude of sins, from simply shaking hands all the way to an extended tour of facility, three hour negotiation meeting, then getting on the piss with them that night.

                 

                • Poission

                  and where is patient zero now?

                  • McFlock

                    Well, the Chinese guy the German met isn't "patient zero" by any stretch, and company visits being what they are I suspect everyone who needed to find him got his number from the German guy's contact list.

                    That "two week contagious" and "R0 ~2-3" means it's more like an STD than measles – you're likely to remember the person who was most likely to give it to you 🙂

                    • Poission

                      The importance is that the german had not been to Wuhan ,wuhan cov came to him.

                      Same as Japan it is not the travellers it is the cohorts.

                    • McFlock

                      "Cohorts"? Not familiar with that word in this context.

                      Diseases spread as a function of duration and nature/closeness of contact. What would be scary is if it started popping up around the globe with no known contacts.

                    • Poission

                      As more information comes,it seems the initial spreader originally from wuhan was asymtomatic and did not develop cv until she returned to china.

                      She seems to have infected 4 colleagues or 10% of the people who attended the workshop.

                      https://www.dw.com/en/germany-confirms-three-further-cases-of-coronavirus/a-52181064

                      maybe a superspreader.

                    • Poission

                      Well, the Chinese guy the German met isn't "patient zero" by any stretch,

                      Except she seems to be.

                      https://static3.stuff.co.nz/file-20200128-81416-e7ut2m-8c976d97.jpeg

                    • McFlock

                      The first one to have it in a country is not the first one to ever get it.

                      Semantics aside, what did I say about how disease spreads? You sit in a room with someone for half a day, that boosts your chances of catching it. In tertiary education it's called "fresher flu". Happens every year. But for a notifiable disease, we know exactly who was exposed for that duration.

                      Same as this workshop – the attendees' families are at risk. They might be quarantined for a couple of weeks off school etc. But the worry isn't the 40 people in the workshop. The worry is the 300 people who shared a plane with that passenger. They all need to be tracked down and tested. But then some of them might have already had it anyway.

            • weka 6.1.1.1.1.2

              it would make sense at this stage to screen people coming from the Wuhan area more closely than others though. I have no idea how many people that would be though.

              • McFlock

                Aren't they already restricted and screened by the Chinese?

                I haven't looked to closely, but I gather that the screening in NZ is mostly specific questions about origin and basic health checks, but screening only works when it is symptomatic. And screening questions are only so useful when everyone sits around in the same transit lounge. Which will be a tiny minority of infected people when they finally get here (air crew don't want to be exposed to it, either).

                Again, with other illnesses there's a much more narrow window between infection, infectiousness, and symptoms.

                My local uni is getting ready for students to come in. They're already sending emails about what to look out for and reasonable levels of caution. But they're not anticipating cancelling lectures at this stage.

                 

                The outbreak is still in the exponential phase, but it's sequenced and testing has been developed to be pretty quick, apparently. SARS in the early 2000s took several months to be sequenced.

                We're still in the phase where people were saying "if these trends continue" when ebola broke out in 2014, and it'll probably be significantly more widespread than ebola, but the main centre of impact will be China.

                They imposed quarantine on cities because people were doing the people thing and "gtf-ing out of Dodge" – literal millions of people fleeing the infected towns. Most of them, like in any country, wouldn't have the paperwork or cash to leave the country, they'll have gone to relatives in other cities. Many of them would have had unknown infections.

                The fear, and the economic impact, will cause inflation and instability within China. This is their cataclysmic bushfire. But in NZ, the 1918 flu will still be the big one. We will get some cases, but I'm not buying a mask just yet. Other people genuinely need them.

      • weka 6.1.2

        "But imagine a deadly virus that was contagious for 2 weeks before any symptoms showed in the carrier…  We would all be dead."

        Unlikely. Viruses are generally adept at not wiping out the whole population, otherwise the virus wouldn't survive. Human immune response adapts over time too.

        We're very used to this idea that a virus is the sole factor in the illness, but the health and immune response of the person exposed is also a factor. Not everyone exposed becomes ill for this reason.

  5. Muttonbird 7

    Ah, she should have taken the call and politely explained to Morrison that he'd caught her in the middle of a press conference.

    That would have given no ammunition to right wing journalist, Claire Trevett.

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12304070

  6. Sabine 8

    yes, i laughed out loud. did. 

     

    but this is epic trolling. 

  7. Muttonbird 9

    Irish PM taunts British Brexit gammons by calling Britain a "small country". Bloated, angry, pink pockmarked faces come to mind.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europe/119109025/ireland-pm-taunts-small-country-britain-over-looming-brexit-trade-talks

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