Daily review 28/09/2020
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5:30 pm, September 28th, 2020 - 114 comments
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First past the post is the winner in a horse-race, right? Politics in New Zealand is a horse-race, right??
The kings horse always wins.
If it was our minister of racing would be polling a lot higher than 1%.
Colmar Brunton poll looks like a Colmar Brunton. Always seems to be about 3% leaned towards the Nats. Hard to make much of it, but bless Jessica Mutch Mackay, she's trying to spin it like we finally have a poll we can rely on.
Labour should coalesce with ACT – Rimmer has worked hard, earned the respect – Jacinda! Choose Seymour!
I'd rather not see that to be honest. ACT has a policy of doing away with the place I work, so I'm not keen on that.
It’s the trends that count. Not ideal direction for labour.
I'm beginning to think, based on the poll results post debate, and the stuff I read Collins saying, that a substantial percentage of NZers actually like violence, and seeing people hurting other people.
On election day it's the number (of votes) that counts – that number is looking less than "ideal" for National
National’s time will come again, but it won’t be this time – they need to get past their obsession with shitty low blows first.
Indeed not looking awesome for National at the moment. But if the greens fall below 5% then labour no mates isn’t looking quite as comfortable.
Expect Green party support will keep them in parliament – Labour look dependable regardless.
You'll have about an hour of hope on election night.
7 pm: Greens 5%. 10 pm: Greens 6-7%.
Two weeks later, the result: Greens 8-9%.
It's always fun to watch National supporters fail to understand how counting votes actually works. Key won a single party majority 3 times, as long as you went to bed early.
It takes a special kinda person to believe the greens are going to land at 8-9%.
I’m not surprised you’re one of them.
Nothing special, just evidence-based analysis of Labour's cautious positioning, and the clear incentive for Labour left voters to back the coalition partner, both tactically (i.e. above threshold) and philosophically (more progressive government).
Wow you just convinced me that I need to part vote green .
Keep up the good work
The trend is that Labour + Greens have not moved. There aint no trend.
I'm still amazed that around 35% Nat & Act voters – are not voting as if their life depends on it. Because them opener borders would not be good.
I am curious though, we we are not getting any polling on the referenda? Is that not allowed?
Spliffer? It's curious, isn't it! Will those who vote "left", because the right is so crap, protest-vote against cannabis reform, for "balance"?
That's what I reckon's happening.
The previous CB poll had polling on the referendums, and I expect this one might too. TV networks always pad out several days' worth of coverage from the polls, to get their money's worth.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/1-news-colmar-brunton-poll-support-cannabis-legalisation-dropping-end-life-choice-remains-steady-v1
there you go.
looking good for a no on cannabis.
I don't think our side is going to win.
And ACT and National govt might just come through.
They won't come through – as long as voters … vote. Which doesn't mean a "like" on social media.
With an average turnout, Ardern will win a second term comfortably, with the Greens.
But a low turnout is a real risk, and Collins' only hope. Let's do all we can to encourage people to get out, as soon as advance voting starts.
Millsy, last election I said "Don't despair", I say it again
Vote early. Shut out the noise, as you have done your best.
Agree with that. Also, remember the only important poll is your vote. Forget what the media is wanting you to hear or think.
Also, I say to anybody thinking of voting for the right aren't we lucky to have had an incompetent administration of the coalition of losers who didn't know what they were doing that stopped you from getting the virus and kept you safe so you can now vote for some other party which is more concerned about greed than peoples welfare.
As someone said many times "You don't know how lucky you are" or if National supported by that gun lobbying prat Rimmer get in "were"
Yip the coalition has been so useless I am going on holiday next week visiting friends and family across the north island and having meals in cafes while having adventures.
News must be new, so shifts of one percentage point are presented as up/down movement, supposedly more "interesting" than a reporter explaining the margin of error.
The real take from tonight's poll is confirmation and consolidation from other polling: no, the Greens haven't been hurt (and don't wait for the commentators to re-assess their doom-laden predictions), but NZF are gone and ACT's gain is real.
I see National has scored 3 percentage points since last week's poll. I reckon its due to Collins performance at the first leader's debate.
As someone pointed out to me last week… what's the matter with Jacinda? She can sock it to them in the debating chamber and gets kudos for it so why can't she do it in a TV debate.
I concur. Pull your socks up Jacinda.
My comment from before stands. Seriously, it seems like Judith Collins would gain 10% for National if she assaulted Jacinda Adern live on telly during the debate.
Why does Jacinda have to sock it to anybody?
Well then why does she 'sock it to them' in the House? I could have put it this way… she needs to counter Judith's bullying behaviour and untruths by calling her out on it.
Why do people assume that socking it to bullies is somehow wrong? That is why they get away with so much because people let them.
She doesn't need to get dragged into a mudfight, but she does need to engage with Collins better. Just rebut with calm, direct questions, instead of letting Collins rewrite history:
"So what does that mean, Judith? You supported zero carbon act / gun control / the lockdown (etc) Do you regret that?".
Don't rely on the moderator to do that job for her, which was the problem in the TVNZ debate. Collins' whoppers went unchallenged. A post-debate fact-check is useless, it needs to be in real time.
"That's as true as your five dollar cheese, Judith …".
Which is pretty much what I was trying to say. 🙂
Have been watching the youth debate courtesy of TVNZ online. What a treat.
They reminded me of the public meetings and debates of yesteryear – lively, lots of fun, a bit raucous at times but the two ingredients which were missing… nastiness and bully boy/girl behaviour.
Bravo to all who took part. A great debate ably managed by Jack Tane.
Labour + Greens is the same in this poll as the last CB, they just traded a percentage point with each other. That’s good right? Isn’t it what most commenters in here wanted?
Nats + ACT look to have clawed a bit back from the minors.
So no change really.
I'd be happier with a higher GP vote obviously but a L/G coalition withhout NZF is a really good result for the left. Would be great for the Mp to get a seat or two as well, they've ruled out supporting Nat.
What Mutch Mckay and others aren't factoring in is Overseas votes. Always favour the left, bound to overwhelming favour Jacinda Ardern especially as we are not charging in the main for quarantine.
I will check out how many votes this usually off. This latest poll may serve a purpose of getting Labour voters out to vote.
Another factor as community transmission fades away, this will help Labour too
For all the hype about what a political wunderkind Swarbrick is, the miserable polling results on such a no-brainer as the cannabis referendum is quite an abject failure. (h/t James at 3.3 for link)
snort, is that the Ad school of politics? What forces do you think have been brought to bear on the vote?
Prob'ly much the same forces that legalisation advocates have had to overcome in all the other places in the world where legalisation actually passed. Often resoundingly.
except the places where they haven't been overcome.
Lots of people don't want to legalise cannabis. Might help to understand why.
Because for too many people, they go with their feels and reckons and "other ways of knowing", rather than facts and evidence, when making their decisions.
yep. For others, they don't have the time or inclination to educate themselves.
Hooten saying on Twitter that the SFO investigation into NZ First is set to be released. They reckon it clears them all.
Winston says a lot of things. Many of them so weaseled it’s an art form.
his party say exactly what winny tells them to. So it’s not surprising they are all saying the same thing.
I guess we will wait for the SFO – but it sounds like it’s close (or they know it’s going to be after the election so they can lie their pants off before hand)
For the ignorant pontificating about hydrogen being a waste of time.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/09/airbus-unveils-concepts-for-hydrogen-powered-plane
the time for gloating is when theres a working prototype and proven safety…you may be a little premature
Those parroting oil industry propaganda dismissing hydrogen are being premature. Still the most promising sustainable technology for long haul ships. Nothing else comes close. Except for fusion, which looks a lot less likely than solving the issues with hydrogen. I've been following the research closely, being "in the business".
When shipowners, not noted for wasting money, commute serious money to something they expect a return
EROI of 0.25
Depends on the source.
You can name a source with a better EROI?….preferably at least 10 fold more efficient
Like rail. The return has to factor in the costs of not having it. Such as climate collapse from continued fossil fuel use.
Thats fine as long as you accept that it is totally unsustainable especially in a world where energy is in short supply….as will the world be when it no longer uses fossil fuels (for whatever reason)
0.25 seems a wee bit harsh. I've seen some figures as good as 0.5, including compressing the hydrogen. Admittedly from hydrogen optimists.
The piece below from InsideEVs gives a good illustration of the losses, even if their general tone is inline with their other articles of being a bit over-pessimistic on hydrogen. Nevertheless, their figure for EROI goes as high as 0.35.
https://insideevs.com/news/406676/battery-electric-hydrogen-fuel-cell-efficiency-comparison/
0.5 still dont cut it does it.
Weeell, if the choice is doing without shipping (and aviation), and massively overbuilding renewable electricity to be able to make hydrogen for those applications even at an EROI of 0.25, I'm picking the hydrogen route will happen.
But I'm also picking that if the world ever comes to its senses and puts a high enough price on fossil fuels that reflects the damage they do, then shipping will go to small nukes, and long haul aviation will go to liquid biofuels.
And if both or either of those things happen they will be tightly restricted, chronically expensive and sparingly used.
The rooskies did a working prototype more than three decades ago with the Tu-155. Just a minor downside was the tank, that only fed one of the three engines for a short flight, took up a hefty fraction of the passenger area in the fuselage.
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/TU-155-Liquid-Hydrogen-Aircraft-Design-Tupolev-2009_fig12_235113427
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tupolev_Tu-155
The "proven safety" aspect is a bit lacking, tho.
I'd also like to hear good atmospheric physicists comment on the effects of leaking significant quantities of hydrogen into the stratosphere just below the ozone layer.
And Archie Blue built a mini that ran on onboard electrolysis in the 1970s…..where are all these hydrogen powered vehicles now?
In the Museum of Wonderful Inventions that would Save the World that the Oil Industry Bought and Suppressed to Protect their Profits.
They didnt…he died poor
They obviously paid what it was worth.
they paid nothing…and didnt need to for the same reason noted above…the EROI is unworkable.
… what it was worth.
and the museum is empty
Well at least they went one better than the poms, as the poms give up designing a Hydrogen powered plane (like it did with its 1960's version of its Joint Strike Fighter as it became a dog of an Aircraft on paper) as a became a monster of an aircraft as the old adage of aircraft design of power vs weight vs drag = more power vs more weight = more drag and on it went upwards.
Tony Butlers Book, British Secret Projects Hypersonics, Ramjets & Missiles.
Chatper 11, Fuel and Materials for Hypersonic Flight
It may take slightly more than that. London has run hydrogen buses for over a decade – but, although a handful of new doubledeckers are in prospect, there has been no move to swap any significant fraction of the fleet to hydrogen, even as scheduled replacements. They are a vanity project at this time.
Not what you would deem a roaring success.
Against nearly half a million battery electric buses? Yeah, nah.
https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-10-08/china-dominates-electric-bus-market-us-getting-board
Then in the US they're looking at their massive fleets of school bus to go battery electric and then be vehicle to grid when needed. It's actually a reasonably good fit for smoothing the output from massive PV installations.
https://www.axios.com/electric-school-buses-vehicle-to-grid-power-19f7b6b1-662b-4501-a96e-dcf3fd57a886.html
can you explain what Labour and Ngai Tahu said today then?
Is Ardern talking about manufacturing hydrogen in Bluff, to use for the long haul road fleet in NZ? Which means freighting hydrogen from Bluff all over NZ?
And O'Regan is talking about using Manapouri to manufacture hydrogen and sell it overseas? Or is there something else about export I am missing?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122908649/election-2020-ngi-tahu-pushes-for-green-hydrogen-transition-at-tiwai-point
Would be good to understand this in the NZ context.
I think the only concrete thing to come out of today's event was that the current government wants there to be a controlled transition from an aluminium smelter in Southland to something else over 3-5 years.
The hydrogen proposal may be a viable alternative. It may also be a dead cat. I'm inclined to go with the dead cat.
ok, shall I take it that no-one knows what Ardern or O'Regan mean at all?
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/107254/labour-aims-three-five-year-extension-life-southland-smelter-including-supporting
that doesn't explain it.
It gives all the explanation provided to date
Don't worry about the ouvea waste either as we can; dig a hole, burn it or hope there is another flood. But the solution is "MOVE" it to other sites. That is a long term solution ?? As there was no comment regarding this I wonder if our government has been outmanoeuvre AGAIN.
"New Zealand Aluminium Smelters and Rio Tinto have regularly reaffirmed their March 2018 commitment to the $4 million plan alongside local authorities and the government to move the waste from Mataura and other sites around Southland over six years."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12363030
Nothing would surprise
It doesn't talk about Ngai Tahu at all, and it doesn't cover Ardern's statement this afternoon.
Ardern made a subsequent statement re Tiwai?…you have a link?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122908649/election-2020-ngi-tahu-pushes-for-green-hydrogen-transition-at-tiwai-point
I've been asking what this means,
"We are creating a freight link for refuelling freight in New Zealand"
I assume she means that hydrogen would be manufactured at Tiwai and then shipped to fueling stations across NZ.
As i understand it. that is the Taranaki hydrogen plant.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/113153482/joint-venture-green-hydrogen-project-tipped-as-beginning-of-hydrogen-industry-in-taranaki
https://www.hiringa.co.nz/
Export would appear to be this
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5c350d6bcc8fedc9b21ec4c5/t/5de5b6665be571035175c34b/1575335526810/New+Zealand+Hydrogen+Association+-+Media+Release+-+LOI+-+28+November+2019+FINAL.pdf
yes, but she was talking about Ngai Tahu's idea about Tiwai and I thought an engineering bod here might get past their antipathy for the idea and explain what she meant.
Sounds like Ngai Tahu are simply floating an idea, whether it has any Gov support isnt stated…what Ardern described is what is covered in the links posted re Taranaki
I don't think one of the worlds largest shipping companies, who are noted for being tight arses, would invest tens of millions, in a "dead cat".
Don't know anything about the Tiwai proposal.
What I do know about is research into hydrogen as a cargo ship fuel.
If the storage issues can be sorted, which seem much more technically feasible, and closer to solutions than the long awaited nuclear fusion, hydrogen has the energy density to replace hydrocarbons for shipping.
It can also be extracted from water using sustainable electricity.
As has been noted, currently the return is not as good as using the electricity directly, but there are several promising technologies to improve that.
Anyone who thinks shipping is going to go away, is not aware of how much of their food and necessities is transported around NZ alone.
Hands up (even tiny ones) if you spend 100X more a year on your hair than you pay in tax.
72% of Kiwis approve of Jacinda Ardern (tonight's poll).
Keep up the snide, the snark, the personal insults, Judith. You're reading the room so well.
That is the problem, Labour trades on the Cult of Personality. Should Labour win this election that will mean that since the transition of NZ in 1984. Labour will have been in power longer than National. I wonder who then takes responsibility for where NZ will be in 2-3 years time.
No matter how well or what good intentions JA has, she is only the leader of Labour and is still bound by the party.
Yep…when Ardern is 60 in 2040 she may retire gracefully….then National may have a chance of the Treasury Benches.
Non political question?
I just started James joyce's Ulysses.
Should I bother carrying on ?
does he learn to write a sentence that makes sense at some point . ?
Or am I missing something?
How far in have you got?
I made it 3 sentences before deciding I would take the zero for that part of my seventh form English assessment.
About 10 pages and have not the foggiest in what's going on.
Jaeezzuss! 10 Pages!
I am not worthy to roll in your spittle.
1 once read anna karenina start to finish .that's a feat I I'm still very proud of.
I went through a phase when I found Tolstoy quite readable. But oddly, really not memorable. I really can't recall anything about his works, and don't feel any desire to reread them to refresh my memory. Unlike some other authors I keep getting drawn back to, because there's fresh nuance and subtleties I find every time I go back.
Quality outcome – 7 more pages than me.
I couldn't figure out why I wanted to live in some guy's head when he went to the bog – I think that was what was going on anyway.
Tolstoy IMHO is a lot more readable but I was very upset by he ending of war & peace when i was younger.
Your teacher was a sadist.
Bwaghorn – it takes some doing but is a treasure once you've learned the language. Give it time. One evening, as you drop off to sleep, you'll feel your brain aligning itself to Joyce's style. New day, you're off!
Aagh I see I bit like watching the romeo and juliet movie
Ok when I'm not so busy and tired of an evening I will attempt again.
Yep. One of the greatest things ever written. First time through don't try too hard to understand it. Treat it like poetry. Then find a decent companion or exegesis and read it a second time.
In 1963, my English Teacher chose not Ulysses to inflict upon us, but 'Portrait of an Artist as a Young Man'. I read it OK, maybe not understanding it as well as if I had been older, but it was OK, and may be an easier Intro to James Joyce..
Judith is only 2% away from her personal aspirational target of 35%. I know she can do it! In any case, just like Merv, she will cling on to Leadership like shit sticks to a blanket; it is the National way and pretty legal too.
@weka 7.1
I’d be quite happy if the Māori Party picked up a seat from Labour and maybe an extra list MP too. But the polling out tonight in the Māori seats doesn’t look very promising for that.
So Labour + Greens looks the most likely government combo at this stage. Though I see that the Nact and ACT fanbois are juggling all sorts of crazy scenarios on the old Twitter.
Just watched the online Young voters debate with Jack Tame. One rep from each Party. Plus a few from Party groups around the Hall.
Pretty good. Questions specific with some follow up. 3 were sitting MPs. It was much more watchable that the Leaders Debate with John.
Taking part in the debate were:
Kiri Allan – Labour
Simeon Brown – National
Chlöe Swarbrick – Greens
Robert Griffith – NZ First
Brooke van Veldon – Act
@bwaghorn 14.
Just give it away. Everybody else does.
I didn't. Once you've finished, there's the art of Pablo Picasso, start to finish.
Merv's still hanging around?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/427117/nats-official-who-allegedly-goes-by-merv-still-in-leadership
tried researching how many overseas votes there were last election 2017. But to date unable to find it.
Anybody know what percentage voted from overseas? Swordfish?
65,000 overseas votes.
It's on the election website.
.
anker
61,524
= 2.34% of all votes (incl informal & disallowed).
= 2.37% of valid votes only.
Which is equivalent to 2.84 MPs in Parliament and heaps more than ACT’s share of the total vote.
The more I see of Collins, the less impressed I am. I had thought that she was sharp, good at cutting through others' arguments and someone for getting real points across clearly. However, as leader, she seems to be spouting nonsensical buzz-words, and often tailing off at the end of sentences, having lost track of exactly where she was going. After the debate, she was constantly trying to remember figures and tripping over her own tongue, and when she was asked about whether she hadn't neglected her own policy somewhat, she reeled off a few policies, before saying, 'It's only an hour and a half, if only it was two-and-a-half, I could have got… done any more [nervous smile and '…yeah…', like she's trying to make small-talk when visiting her mother-in-law for the first time, and pretending she doesn't hate the slightly stale date scones that were clearly cut on a board normally used for garlic].'
Then, today at the Grey Power meeting, there was, 'I don't think for a moment that these [Labour politicians] know how many cents there are in a dollar, except they do know that your dollar should be their dollar.' That's a non-sequitur of John-Key-ish proportions; just stringing together lazy, right-wing clichés with no thought for whether they even fit together to form a statement. It reminds me a lot of Melissa Lee, too, who, when put on the spot campaigning for a seat, ended up spouting a whole lot of stuff that either didn't make any sense, or seemed to mean something that she really should not have said.
Witness, too, the line at the same meeting, 'I know you might love Miss Ardern, but actually, I'm all over her.' So she loves her even more than they do? Riiiight…. Okay, we all know what she meant, but even then: is she trying to say that there was a time when she thought was wildly enthused by Ardern, or something? All in all, if you imagine a lot of what Collins says being said by the rhetorically hapless George W Bush, it really doesn't seem too far out of place.
Susie Ferguson didn't do a bad job on Morning Report the other day of pulling her up on her bumbling replies about their fiscal errors, but honestly, presenters should be halting her constantly, and asking her, 'Wtf… you just said what?… and what was it even supposed to mean?' and people should be putting together montages of her gaffes accompanied by a laughing track.
Fully agree, Hanswurst – her language ability is limited, and she will need compliant, helpful Media to help her again if she is to repeat her questionable "success" of that first TV debate.
Mind you, I thought both John Key and Bill English mangled the English language, and found it hard to believe that Bill English was really a graduate in English! Todd Muller had big problems with language too.
Better if I don’t say what I thought of Simon Bridges as an alleged graduate of Harvard in Law, etc… “The medicine is worse than the cure.” Lord save us!
I fully agree, especially on Key, but the thing is that Key was mangling the language in his fabled capacity as a freewheeling, self-taught financial wizard, while English built his political persona around the image of 'barbecue Bill', the amateur pugilist and Dipton farmer. Part of the problem for Bridges and Collins is that they have built their political images as clever lawyers, Collins as a hard-nosed battler for conservative principles, Bridges (rightly or wrongly) as a precocious hot-shot prosecutor. It's much harder for them to defuse a situation by grinning and saying, 'Aw shucks!'
Like her commentary during the Mt Albert byelection campaign of some years back when she made her claim about criminals from South Auckland stopping off in Mt Albert on their way to West Auckland. No-one knew what that had to do with the price of fish but the local wits and cartoonists did try to unravel her thoughts on the matter… much to everyone's enjoyment.
Not sure Collins could ever beat that pearler but you never know.
A useful rapid testing option, if we take the trouble to develop it. Sniffer dogs can detect Covid apparently.