Decoding the Doorstep: Insights from Canvassing Uxbridge and South Ruislip

Written By: - Date published: 3:22 am, July 10th, 2023 - 13 comments
Categories: boris johnson, by-election, elections, labour, political parties, uk politics - Tags: , , , ,

Originally posted on Nick Kelly’s blog

I spent the last UK General Election canvassing in Uxbridge, trying to unseat the then Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In the 25 years I’ve been politically active, this was the second most depressing canvassing session I had been to.* It was the middle of winter, the weather was awful, and it was obvious the votes were not going Labour’s way.

Last weekend I returned to Uxbridge for the first time since December 2019. The not-so-illustrious political career of Boris Johnson has ended in failure and disgrace. Johnson resigned as an MP at the conclusion of the Privileges Committee investigation. The Committee’s report found that Boris Johnson broke the COVID-19 rules, the ones his own government had set, and had misled Parliament when questioned about this.

Had Johnson not resigned, he would have been suspended from the House for 90 days. In the UK, MPs can be recalled by voters when suspended. If 10% of voters in the suspended MP’s constituency sign a recall petition a by-election must take place. Had Boris Johnson not resigned, he almost certainly would have faced a by-election. In these circumstances, he would likely have lost.

So Boris Johnson made one of the few honourable decisions of his life and resigned from parliament (though even then poo poo-ed the privileges committee report and denied fault).

Last weekend I was out in Uxbridge canvassing for Danny Beale, Labour’s candidate in the by-election. Labour last won Uxbridge in 1966, and before that 1945. The Ruislip part of the constituency has never been held by Labour. But the demographics in the area are changing and despite a blip in 2019, overall the Tory vote has been gradually falling in the area for some time.

                                    Above: Labour’s Uxbridge and Ruislip candidate Danny Beale

In politics, much is made of doorstep conversations. It is seen as the ultimate litmus test for how well a party, leader or set of policies are performing. Opponents of Jeremy Corbyn have often claimed that on the doorstep he was not popular. Certainly, my experience in 2019 was that Corbyn and the political project he came to represent was polarising. I found many were supportive of core Labour policy, but did not trust the party or its leadership.

The 2017 election proved there was significant support for social democratic policies (eg national care service, public ownership of rail, electricity, water etc, and funding public services properly). But weak leadership on Brexit, failure to respond properly on antisemitism and now his appalling position on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine have shown Corbyn was not fit to be Prime Minister. But nor was Boris Johnson, as the Privileges Committee have confirmed.

So what is the message on the doorstep now? When you go out you only get a small sample across a dozen or so streets. Much like opinion polling, the ‘mood on the doorstep’ is not an exact science, but gives you a general sense of the mood. Compared to 2019, overall the number saying they will vote for Labour is higher now, but only modestly.

The Conservatives won Uxbridge and South Ruislip by a majority of 7,210 in 2019. The thing that is likely to swing this Constituency to Labour on Thursday 20 July, may not be a huge swing to Labour, but former Tory voters staying at home or protest voting. On the doorstep, the anger from voters was palpable. Not all of this anger was directed at the Conservatives, but I and others had quite a few conservation with people who had previously voted Tory but would not be in the by-election.

The head-wind for Danny Beale is not coming from parliament but from the Greater London Authority (GLA). Labour’s London Mayor Sadiq Khan has decided to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone out to all boroughs of London. This means owners of older vehicles will now pay a daily charge of £12.50.

London’s air pollution is bad and research by Imperial College London in 2019 found that it contributed 4000 premature deaths a year. Unfortunately, it is London residents who cannot afford electric vehicles who pay the price. In outer London suburbs like Uxbridge and Ruislip, car ownership is higher as public transport is generally not as frequent.

Danny Beale has called for the ULEZ expansion to be delayed, saying the cost of living crisis is the wrong time to implement this. He has also called for a better scrappage scheme to help people replace older vehicles. Unlike in other parts of the country, the Government have not helped Greater London implement a proper scrappage scheme, no doubt to put pressure on Sadiq Khan.

Did this issue come up on the doorstep? The very first door I knocked on this was their key concern. Others also mentioned it, usually in the wider context of the cost of living, and were as critical of the Government as they were of the London Mayor. But it was clear that ULEZ was a barrier to people voting Labour.

From this session and the feedback I’ve got from others who’ve canvassed, Labour can certainly win Uxbridge and Ruislip. But it will be close. The challenge will be for Sadiq Khan in next year’s London Mayoral elections. Decisions such as extending ULEZ, or increasing rail fares have been a result of the Government not supporting London. But many now blame the Mayor and the Labour London Authority Members. The Conservatives believe this will give them an advantage. The message I got on the doorstep was that anger at ULEZ did not automatically equate to voting Tory, especially given their recent track record in government.

There are two other byelections being held on 20 July: Somerton and From, and Selby and Ainsty. There is also the likelihood of a byelection in disgraced MP Chris Pincher’s constituency, and Nadine Dorries’s constituency of Mid Bedfordshire. Polls suggest that in each of these byelections, the Conservatives will struggle. Each has its own dynamic, with the Lib Dems being the serious challenger in Somerton and From, whereas in Selby and Ainsty a Labour victory is now looking likely.

Canvassing Uxbridge and Ruislip, the insight I get from canvassing is that Labour have a real chance, but should not be complacent. Support for the Conservative and Unionist Party is collapsing, but this is turning to cynicism and rage rather than enthusiastic support for a Labour Government next year.

There is a possibility that in 18 months’ time, UK Labour are in Government, but have lost the London Mayoralty. This is not inevitable, but for Sadiq Khan to win a 3rd term as Mayor, he will need to balance lowering emissions and environmental targets with helping Londoners survive the cost of living crisis. This could well turn out to be a tough campaign, which I hope does not give me a new “worst canvassing session.”  

 

*The worst canvassing session I went on was the 2014 New Zealand General election. I was canvassing in the Wellington Ohariu electorate. It was early spring, and the rain was heavy in typical Wellington fashion. It took me hours to dry off. NZ Labour got 25% in that election, its worst result in a century. Labour did fail to win the Ohariu seat that time, though picked it up three years later when Jacinda Ardern won the 2017 election for Labour.

Previous Posts about my involvement with Labour and political campaigns. Plus other relevant posts:

Why the Labour Party

Why the Tories won the UK election

Why Labour Lost? Part 9: What the Party needs to do now?

What the recent elections tell us about British society

Tory Sleaze – sequels are often a disappointment

Can Rishi Sunak save the Conservative Government?

UK Labour – can they finally beat the Tories?    

13 comments on “Decoding the Doorstep: Insights from Canvassing Uxbridge and South Ruislip ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Ad 1
    10 July 2023 at 8:15 am

    Good on you Nick for the hard work on behalf of Labour, trying to change the world for good. That is several decades of real effort.

  2. tWiggle 2
    10 July 2023 at 9:26 am

    It's not a 2-horse race, though. What about Blaise Baquiche, Liberal Democrat, remainer, and with a coms background in farm policy and EU trade? Some Conservative voters may stay home, but some may switch to the middle party.

    The LibDems stand strongly for MMP, where Labour top-level refuses to consider the idea, even though it would drag the UK out of its dreadful two-party, three-legged race. MMP is popular with Labour’s grassroots

    • nickkelly 2.1
      10 July 2023 at 10:02 am

      The Lib Dems do not stand strongly for MMP. They support proportional representation but would be quite happy with the transferable vote system or some other form of PR. They are more focused on the Somerset constituency where they will almost certainly win. But agreed, it is not a 2 horse race

  3. Craig Stephen 3
    10 July 2023 at 1:24 pm

    The election is unlikely to be decided in Uxbridge but in Scotland where a hardline unionist Labour Party needs to make a breakthrough in SNP-held seats. As they hold a pathetic solitary seat and are John Bull to the core, it's hard to see the Red Tories make any headway, even with the Tories in freefall and the SNP in turmoil. You can't sing Rule Britannia and expect to win in Glasgow, Dundee and Lesmahagow.

    • nickkelly 3.1
      10 July 2023 at 7:12 pm

      Craig, Scotland will be important. But so too will outer London and the South East. Since the pandemic, there has been considerable demographic change, with many working-class Londoners now moving further out. In recent council elections, Labour gained majorities where it hasn't in decades in places like Medway in Kent. 80% of UK voters live in England, and outside the major metropolitan centres, the Tories tend to win by default. There are signs that this is starting to shift, as the Conservative Government has done such a poor job.

      In Scotland, it is likely Labour will make some gains (it currently has one MP up there so will almost certainly pick up more). The SNP's internal problems won't help them. But as you say, Labour has aligned itself as a unionist party, and for many left voters, this is a barrier to voting for them.

      • Craig Stephen 3.1.1
        11 July 2023 at 12:23 pm

        Nick, my analysis was based on the presumption that Labour will make gains in England and Wales. But I don't think they will make a massive breakthrough in the home counties nor in the so-called red wall seats especially those in the Midlands. Thus Starmer, after a lame campaign, will look north, and if the Unionist Scottish Labour Party wins just, say, six seats (as they did in 2017 when Labour won over 40% nationally) then it will need to work with the even lamer LibDems.

  4. Peter Wilson 4
    10 July 2023 at 6:07 pm

    I take issue with your comments about Jeremy Corbyn, particularly your allegations of antisemitism. I would be interested to know what you view as antisemitic. Does critisism of Israel's continued Apartheid policies against the illegally occupied palestine qualify as antisemitism?

    It would seem from your comments you would support Tony Blair and keir starter both clueless centrists

    • Nic the NZer 4.1
      10 July 2023 at 6:26 pm

      It seems clear Nick's railing against Corbyn's present position of encouraging a settlement to be negotiated in Ukraine. Something Boris Johnson already delivered on during his term (telling Zelenskyy not to negotiate a settlement himself).

    • nickkelly 4.2
      10 July 2023 at 7:04 pm

      Peter – I realise there is a real difference between opposing Israel's expansionist policies etc and antisemitism. I can tell you that there were genuine cases of antisemitism (Jewish conspiracy theories etc) that the Party were slow to act on under Corbyn. Granted the Party head office was controlled by members of a different faction for much of that time, but Corbyn could have and should have been stronger.

      I am not going to rise to the bait in your final comment. After the 2019 election, I wrote a series of blog posts about UK Labour. After these were published I was accused of being a mad Corbynista by the Centrists, and of being an evil Blairite by the hard left. Needless to say, I am a social democrat who wants Labour in Government to implement progressive policies such as public ownership of energy companies, building more social housing and strong employment rights with strengthened trade unions and collective bargaining.

      • Tiger Mountain 4.2.1
        11 July 2023 at 7:23 am

        Good for you Nick…have done door knocking myself for political purposes and never fully decided if it was sadism or masochism, but…the Ghost of Jeremy will likely haunt Labour for a good while yet. His position on any number of things is working class internationalist–which career opportunists and class sellouts find hard to handle on a good day.

        Mr Corbyn was in an effect a “freak power” token candidate in his first iteration but he made nice progress with the thousands of new member signups–what is politics without wide participation? My contention is that JC was a genuine guy, hence he did not organise deselection of certain MPs and was acrobatic on Brexit. All he had to do really was “we will respect the people’s vote on Brexit and implement the “For the many not the few” re-nationalisation programme.

        Senior UK Military figures, ahead of his first campaign as leader, openly threatening a coup if Jeremy Corbyn ever became PM gives an indication of why there has been a long ruling class campaign against him and his supporters.

  5. Sanctuary 5
    10 July 2023 at 8:48 pm

    Jesus you are door knocking for that serial liar Starmer? You must be easily pleased.

  6. Corey 6
    11 July 2023 at 12:14 pm

    Good on you. I remember during 2017s NZ election we had many visitors from UK labour, Aussie Labour, Canadian Liberals and the Us democrats dropping in to volunteer and during the 2022 Aussie elections many kiwi labour supporters went and volunteered.

    It's pretty amazing, and I've met so many friends around the world because of it.

    I will say though, and I hope UK Labour wins…. But it's a shame that UK Labour has gone from promising to do too much, to promising to do absolutely nothing.

    Reading interviews with Keir and his shadow finance minister are absolutely depressing.

    I have no idea why both Labour and National continue to steal ideas from the UK especially when a lot of the ideas both parties steak, didn't work in the UK.

    From labours health reforms based off Tory/lib reforms , to Nat/act charter schools, tech reforms to hiring failed British public servants for just about everything.

    The state of UK's water providers actually full me with fear for NZ, not least cos Labour based their reforms on UK water policies, bundling water up makes it easier for Nat/act to privatize, and pretending iwi will stop them because they aren't capitalists may help lefty's sleep at night but it ain't true.

    NZ needs stop looking to the UK for solutions and we need to go back to being a country that the world looks to for solutions. Why would we want to replicate the UK? Do we want this country to be even more divided, angry and poor?

    While I hope Starmer wins, he hasn't made Labour electable, the Tory's have just made themselves unelectable, instead of finding a happy medium between Corbyn and Blair, he's gone to the right of Blair and is offering Tory/lib coalition lite austerity and kicking literally anyone who disagrees out of the party.

    It's a big shame that UK Labour won't support proportional either, the left would have won every elections in the last 50 years with proportional and it'd end the vote splitting between lab, libs, greens and the nationalist parties and give the left voters labour doesn't want, somewhere to go.

    Bugger eh.

    Still, Down with the Tory's.

    Also I maintain, NZ,Aussie, Candian and other commonwealth nations should be able to go to Britain and work without a visa like we do in Australia, since prior to 1949 we were all British!

    • Sanctuary 6.1
      11 July 2023 at 1:49 pm

      Regurgitating the "whites only" commonwealth free travel zone is pretty… racist.

The server will be getting hardware changes this evening starting at 10pm NZDT.
The site will be off line for some hours.