Election Night 2023 on The Standard

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 pm, October 14th, 2023 - 237 comments
Categories: election 2023, elections, Left - Tags:

Electoral Commission timing of results:

Preliminary General Election results will be available here progressively from 7:00pm.

Targets for release of the preliminary General Election results are:

  • 10:00pm results from 50% of voting places
  • 11:30pm results from 95% of voting places

The Electoral Commission will publish the official results of the 2023 General Election here on Friday 3 November 2023.

The Spinoff has the early votes being counted during the day and announced shortly after 7pm.

Political comms student Harry Peterson has been tracking early votes:

207,055 people voted yesterday, meaning that a total of 1,377,018 people had already cast their ballots before election day. This means that around 39.3% of registered voters voted before election day. 

RNZ is reporting voting en masse today.

The Electoral Commission says those standing in line at polling placeswill be able to vote even after 7pm.

Voting is open at more than 2300 places across the country.

But with people voting en masse, there have been reports of massive queues around the country.

A spokesperson said that additional staff were brought in to some voting places today because of high demand.

Between 11am and 2pm were usually the busiest times to vote on election day, they said.

Chief electoral officer Karl Le Quesne said people already standing in line would not be turned away.

“If you are waiting at your voting place to vote and it turns to 7pm, you can still stay on the line and cast your vote.”

…

In Auckland, some voters were reported to have queued up to 45 minutes before the booths even opened.

I hope everyone in Canterbury is ok, with gale force wind emergency alerts being issued for Christchurch and surrounds and other parts of the province.

Live coverage of election night:

The Spinoff’s Guide to Election Night coverage (including full details of where to watch/read). The Spinoff‘s own livestream is on youtube, and the website has live updates with Gone By Lunchtime’s Toby Manhire, The Bulletin editor Anna Rawhiti-Connell and The Spinoff editor Madeleine Chapman

TVNZ: chief correspondent John Campbell, political editor Jessica Mutch McKay and Q+A presenter Jack Tame. Livestream on 1News.

RNZ: Lisa Owen, Corin Dann and Jane Patterson. Livestream on youtube, and live updates on the website.

Whakaata Māori: Tina Wickliffe and Tūmamao Harawira, livestream including coverage of the Māori electorates.

Newshub: Ryan Bridge, Samantha Hayes, Patrick Gower and Jenna Lynch livestream on youtube

The Guardian: live updates, Eva Corlett in Wellington, Charlotte Graham-McLay in Lower Hutt, Serena Solomon in Auckland and our political analysts Henry Cooke and Lamia Imam.

Newsroom

Key electorates:

List of electorates, and a map.

Māori Electorates:

Hauraki-Waikato

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Waiariki: Rawiri Waititi/TPM incumbent

Te Tai Tokerau

Te Tai Hauāuru

Te Tai Tonga

General Electorates: prelim results in links

Auckland Central

Rongotai

Wellington Central

Mt Albert

Wairarapa: Keiran McAnulty incumbent

Ilam

Twitter feeds: #NZelection and #ElectionDay

Post will be updated with links as they become available.



237 comments on “Election Night 2023 on The Standard ”

  • Comments are now closed

  2. weka 2
    14 October 2023 at 7:03 pm

    Good luck everyone!

  3. SPC 3
    14 October 2023 at 7:04 pm

    One hopes the administration of this poll was no more than incompetence.

    • SPC 3.1
      14 October 2023 at 7:20 pm

      There has to be a criminal investigation.

      Remember the calls earlier this year for people to infiltrate the election and sabotage it?

      If this happened in the USA it would be called James (not as we know democracy Jim) Crow era corruption.

      It appears to be a systematic attempt to disrupt the south Auckland vote – late delivery of cards, not enough forms on the day.

    • SPC 3.2
      14 October 2023 at 7:52 pm

      RNZ the only media covering serious concerns about the election.

  5. D 5
    14 October 2023 at 7:12 pm

    Anything over 27% on the night is a win win for labour.

  6. lurgee 6
    14 October 2023 at 7:12 pm

    Shit balls those early votes. BUT that will probably change. Remember 2005 where National started well ahead and Labour clawed them back. Or is this Labour’s 2001?

  7. lurgee 7
    14 October 2023 at 7:19 pm

    It would be hilarious if – after all his hard work getting back into the public eye and above the 5% threshold, he ended up there himself, unneeded and uncalled for …

  8. tsmithfield 8
    14 October 2023 at 7:23 pm

    These votes being counted now are the early votes? I missed the start of the program. I think there definitely will be a change of government. The big question is whether NZ First will be required or not. I suspect it will be. Though, the bi-election seat could make a difference there.

    • lurgee 8.1
      14 October 2023 at 7:30 pm

      Yup. In (some) previous elections Labour has hauled it back, 1% party vote per 10% counted. Though in others the initial numbers dbarely change at all. Which will we get tonight.

      I predict NACT will end up at about 45% and be asking Winston to help out.

      • tsmithfield 8.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 7:46 pm

        It may not change all that much. I imagine the early votes will be fairly homogenous assuming they aren't being counted on the basis of voting date. National does normally rise on the day as the rural seats come in early, and then drop back a bit as the South Auckland vote comes in. The other wild card is the bi-election in November which is likely to deliver National another seat.

    • D 8.2
      14 October 2023 at 7:41 pm

      Yes believe so. I thought I saw a figure around 600k a week or so back…sorry no link that were the early votes, but also regarded as about half the earliest of prior election. I will swing left through the night. .but that start is a bit of surprise to me (compared to polls). Also always new elections seem to not follow the past trends obviously. Who can tell what the overseas votes will be and if they were polled well for example

  9. observer 9
    14 October 2023 at 7:30 pm

    Already clear that Labour have not done well enough.

    Ironically, the projections are that they will lose so many electorates that they will instead save some of those vulnerable MPs on the list (McAnulty, Parker etc). Not much of a straw to clutch at, but there it is.

  10. observer 10
    14 October 2023 at 7:35 pm

    Greens have a good chance of taking Wellington Central, strong vote so far.

    • Dennis Frank 10.1
      14 October 2023 at 7:38 pm

      So strong looks dead cert unless it's not representative & other results bring in a counter-trend…

  11. lurgee 11
    14 October 2023 at 7:37 pm

    Shane Jones on TVNZ. This night is getting worse …

  12. pat 12
    14 October 2023 at 7:39 pm

    Wigram will hurt if the lead holds

  13. lurgee 13
    14 October 2023 at 7:42 pm

    On TVNZ Jessica Mutch McKay smile beatifically as she says Winston Peters might not be needed … a lot of journalists might be cackling with glee at the thought of his frustration.

  14. observer 14
    14 October 2023 at 7:42 pm

    Simon O'Connor in trouble already (yes, I'm just trying to find any good news anywhere, coz let's face it, the government is going to be a disaster).

    • Graeme 14.1
      14 October 2023 at 9:44 pm

      In trouble is putting it politely. The good people of Tāmaki have told him go forth and multiply.

      And at #54 on National's list Simon could be looking for a new job on Monday. Constructive dismissal on behalf of the CEO…

  15. lurgee 15
    14 October 2023 at 7:42 pm

    Almost 20% counted and no sense that the numbers are going to move much. I suspect Labour will be lucky to scrape over 30%.

  16. lurgee 16
    14 October 2023 at 7:45 pm

    As it become more likely National and Act will be able to govern alone, I would like to announce I was right in my prediction – the polls were indeed wrong. Just the opposite way to how I thought they would err.

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 16.1
      14 October 2023 at 8:01 pm

      Exactly why I want to ban publication political polls all year-around. Too much presumptions and too much self-fulfilling prophecies around them. I do not love the discourse around polls because they are used as a mental type of weapon to psychologically abuse us in a way. Even if they're positive to us, they often set us up to failure after moments of happiness.

      Ban polls and the media discourse around it — period.

      • Rolling-on-Gravel 16.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 10:03 pm

        Also, 'shy tory' is a factor, from my view, if we are treated kindly in the polls, then the right-wing people might feel persecuted and dig in their position in order to revenge themselves on the polls and it becomes a circus when the polls next week or next month says the opposite and the right-wing is on the ascent and we are devastated at the polls result.

        That's another reason I want to ban polls so the right-wing people don't get all huffy therefore leave us alone (and make them less likely to be “shy tories”) and sit out elections and so the media needs to focus on what actually matters: the issues and turnout of voters.

  17. Cricklewood 17
    14 October 2023 at 7:48 pm

    Micheal Wood looks goneburger

  18. Gingercrush 18
    14 October 2023 at 7:49 pm

    Disaster for Labour. No momentum in the last week. Green vote also down from the polling but a great result for them at the same time.

  19. observer 19
    14 October 2023 at 7:49 pm

    This is very funny: TPM projected to win FIVE electorates, which would be an overhang and pushes the majority number up to 62.

    Imagine the dog-whistlers falling short of a majority because of "the bloody Mowrees" …

  20. Dennis Frank 20
    14 October 2023 at 7:51 pm

    Looks like I read this one wrong. Decisive win for the Nats is the message coming thro.

    surprise

    • bwaghorn 20.1
      14 October 2023 at 7:58 pm

      According to tv1 if tpm get 5 seats it'll take 64 seats to form a government , Winston could be saved by the Maori party, that leval irony to the next level 🤔

  21. Roy Cartland 21
    14 October 2023 at 7:52 pm

    Funny, I was feeling pretty optimistic until I saw the weather today. Someone said Tories pray for rain, and do it did ☹️

    • weka 21.1
      14 October 2023 at 8:08 pm

      Will be interesting to see the Christchurch/Canterbury turnout today.

    • tsmithfield 21.2
      14 October 2023 at 8:11 pm

      Not rain in Christchurch. More akin to a hurricane lol. Power out all over the place. I don't know if that discouraged people from going out.

  22. Gingercrush 22
    14 October 2023 at 7:56 pm

    Labour doing really bad in electorate races as well. Decimated in the Maori seats. Doing badly in Auckland and even Christchurch going bad for them.

    • alwyn 22.1
      14 October 2023 at 8:17 pm

      Please, please.

      The term decimated comes from the Roman Empire times and means that one in ten were selected by lot and killed. Only one in ten.

      The results that are coming up in the Maori Electorates is much, much worse than that. It is nearer to a total extinction.

  23. lurgee 23
    14 October 2023 at 7:59 pm

    Chris Luxon’s kids are better at talking to the media than he is. I want them to run the country, not him.

  24. lurgee 24
    14 October 2023 at 8:02 pm

    I would like to apologise to New Zealand for giving two ticks to Labour. I should have remembered I never manage to vote for the winning party. I note the Greens have done better than they have in the elections where I have voted for them.

  25. Wei 25
    14 October 2023 at 8:02 pm

    Have always voted Labour. I am a trade unionist.

    So many in the union have come up to me and said they would not vote Labour.

    The fact is people are sick and tired and disgusted with woke virtue signalling.

    The Left has to get back to traditional left causes. Domestically – against privatisation and worker exploitation. Internationally – anti-imperialism.

    Bury the post-modernist crap down the longest drop toilet you can find.

  26. Kat 26
    14 October 2023 at 8:07 pm

    Its all the same FPP furore being projected by the media tonight …….expect the unexpected……hint….how the Germans make MMP work…..

  27. Rolling-on-Gravel 27
    14 October 2023 at 8:09 pm

    This is extraordinarily disappointing so far.

    There likely will be a lot of disabled people on benefits who will die or will be severely harmed as a result of a potential National/ACT coalition which will means more sanctions and cuts and elections ensuring either homelessness or death.

    I dread to know what a potential ACT/National government will do to people in emergency housing.

    I myself am dreading what they will do to me. I am likely to be completely homeless or to be forced to live with my parents or to die under a pure ACT/NAT government.

    Kia kaha.

    This has been an hard ride so far.

    • Barfly 27.1
      14 October 2023 at 8:48 pm

      I to fear for the disabled living on the Government stipend and I agree with your belief that many will die as a result of NACT policies. I am lucky myself to be aging out of their reach very soon but I feel sadness and anger at your plight sadangry

    • Patricia Bremner 27.2
      14 October 2023 at 9:14 pm

      This is so painful, and the gloating will be horrible.

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 27.3
      14 October 2023 at 9:20 pm

      And I think this is based on some type of racism too.

      I had talked with a National voter the other day and he blamed it on Pacific Islanders and Māori people languishing on the benefit. I had told him that I am on the benefit and that they (NACT) will impact on me too though he tried to assure I'm going to be treated well and going to be OK however I told him that it likely will not be the case.

      Racism and ableism, yay! /s

    • SapphireGem 27.4
      14 October 2023 at 10:02 pm

      I am so sorry RoG.

  28. observer 28
    14 October 2023 at 8:09 pm

    If the Greens win 3 electorates that would be remarkable. No cups of tea, no deals, just strong work.

    (I'd expect the projected 3 to drop back to 2, though).

    • weka 28.1
      14 October 2023 at 8:42 pm

      you think Genter won’t get Rongotai?

    • bwaghorn 28.2
      14 October 2023 at 9:39 pm

      It'll be interesting to see how many electorate seats go to national due to labour green vote splitting?

      • Belladonna 28.2.1
        14 October 2023 at 11:08 pm

        It may well be the case – certainly it seems as though the GP have increased electorate vote in some electorates. In some cases – this may have made the difference between the National and Labour candidates.

        However, this has no impact on the total number of MPs – which are based almost entirely on the party vote.

        • bwaghorn 28.2.1.1
          15 October 2023 at 6:33 am

          ""However, this has no impact on the total number of MPs – which are based almost entirely on the party vote.""

          Yip but a comeback will be harder with less electorate mps on the job

  29. lurgee 29
    14 October 2023 at 8:18 pm

    Will Labour actually get enough MPs to hold a leadership election?

  30. lurgee 30
    14 October 2023 at 8:27 pm

    Searching for any silver linings at all on this grim night, I was thinking that at least none of the bizarre fringe parties manage to get a toehold. Then I remember Winston is back …

  31. observer 31
    14 October 2023 at 8:27 pm

    So far the votes declared are mostly advance votes. Votes on the day (the majority) are only coming through now.

    If there was any late shift it hasn't been picked up yet.

    • lurgee 31.1
      14 October 2023 at 8:30 pm

      I don't think that is correct, though I would love it to be the case. Would be hilarious to see NAtional and ACT suddenly drop to 45% and have to go begging to Winston.

        • lurgee 31.1.1.1
          14 October 2023 at 8:39 pm

          Interesting. Though unlikely to make much of a difference. But if NACT do fall below 50% expect howling and despair from the right.

        • lurgee 31.1.1.2
          14 October 2023 at 8:46 pm

          I remember in 2005 watching Labour claw back a deficit, roughly 1% of party vote for every 10% of the vote that came in as the night went on … I think that must have been when the on-the-day votes were counted. But currently Labour are still falling … 25.7%. Not a great base to start building on.

        • lurgee 31.1.1.3
          14 October 2023 at 9:14 pm

          Labour SURGE to 25.75%!

        • lurgee 31.1.1.4
          14 October 2023 at 9:29 pm

          I wish you hadn't given me that link because a) you've given me a glimmer of hope and b) you've given me another thing to look at.

          Oddly, Labour are 25.96 on the advance votes, 25.80 on the overall tally. Did they manage to lose ground as the campaign wore on? Will South Auckland deliver a late night jolt?

      • lurgee 31.1.2
        14 October 2023 at 9:48 pm

        Labour's advance vote share: 26.2%

        Labour's on the day vote share: 26.1%

        Labour's problem may be they are running out of advance votes and will be left with its on the day vote, which seems lower …

    • lurgee 31.2
      14 October 2023 at 10:26 pm

      A curious moment of crossover is about to occur, as Labour's On The Day vote starts to lead the Advance vote. So now we will see how much difference Angry Chris made …

      Of course, we;re talking dire numbers here – 26.26% …

    • lurgee 31.3
      14 October 2023 at 10:38 pm

      Nar's under 40%. Act on 9.19% and looking likely to fall off slightly. In the immortal final words of infamous cannibal cannibal murderer Sawney Bean, “This isn’t over! It will never be over!”

  32. lurgee 32
    14 October 2023 at 8:34 pm

    Melissa Lee look likely to take Mount Albert for National. Given it is Helen Clark and Jacinda Ardern's former seat, does this make her the next leader of the Labour Party?

  33. Dave the green 33
    14 October 2023 at 8:43 pm

    Well, O'Connor looks like he is turning it around over Willis in Ohariu. The start of some slim hope of a mini recovery….

  34. weka 34
    14 October 2023 at 8:44 pm

    Does anyone know if the % of party vote should be of 120 or whatever the total MP numbers is after the overhangs? And the by-election.

    • tsmithfield 34.1
      14 October 2023 at 8:56 pm

      Something I haven't been clear on is the way that overhang is handled in NZ elections. I have seen conflicting information on that. I know some countries that use MMP adjust the number of seats in parliament to ensure proportionality is maintained in the case of overhang. You might know a bit more on that.

      • SPC 34.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 9:15 pm

        There can be overhang. So if TPM are 2.5% – 3 seats off the list and if they win 5 electorates, then an overhang of 2. Other parties get their full party list allocation regardless.

  35. AB 35
    14 October 2023 at 8:56 pm

    Still a realistic hope that NACT will fall back enough to need NZF. If this doesn't happen, the polls have been remarkably inaccurate. Final turnout will be interesting to see.

    Inevitable though that we have a horrible government led by an embarrassing, inane fool. Serious problems looming on the economic plight of the poorest, our race relations, housing affordability, high immigration overwhelming physical and social infrastructure, inability to respond to climate change in any sense (emissions-reduction, repairing damage or hardening infrastructure). Apathy will have to be avoided.

    • higherstandard 35.1
      14 October 2023 at 9:11 pm

      'Inevitable though that we have a horrible government led by an embarrassing, inane fool. '

      No one will notice any difference then.

  36. SPC 36
    14 October 2023 at 8:59 pm

    In the liteweight contest

    Barely 2% for the lot of them.

    Liz Gunn's New Zealand Loyal has a strong lead over Alfred Ngaro's New Zeal, with Aotearoa just legalise it already, in third.

    The others risk being lapped, of them the Tamaki and Tamaki Grey ménage à troise Party (0.27%) ahead of the Leighton Baker (as is everyone).

    • SPC 36.1
      14 October 2023 at 10:20 pm

      A late surge to 2.2% for the alt right with their top performing groups on 0.9 Gunn and 0.5 Ngaro a along way ahead of the rest.

      Freedom NZ 0.3 Tamaki and Tamaki Grey ménage à troise and Democracy NZ 0.2 King.

      The other 3 of their type, total below 0.3.

      • SPC 36.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 11:15 pm

        2.4%!

        New Zealand Loyal 1.1 more than the next 3 put together

        New Zealand Zeal 0.5 Freedom NZ 0.3 Democracy NZ 0.24

        The other 3, 0.28 – New Conservatives 0.15 Leighton Baker Party 0.08 and New Nation Party 0.05

  37. lurgee 37
    14 October 2023 at 9:04 pm

    Grant Robertson on TVNZ, looking very chipper, like he is anticipating a promotion. Third time lucky, eh, Grant? Based on the current prediction Labour will get 33 MPs, he only needs to persuade 16 of them to vote for him to make it happen.

    • observer 37.1
      14 October 2023 at 9:11 pm

      The job was his for the asking when Jacinda stepped down, he didn't lose a vote. He simply didn't want the job. I doubt that has changed (though I'd be happy for him to take it on).

      • lurgee 37.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 9:22 pm

        I think Grant could read the entrails when Ardern stepped down and knew it was wise to sit that one out. But he lost to Cunliffe and had to sit back when Ardern was anointed, post-Little. But this might be his chance. He’s only 51 – which I no longer consider old – and has plenty of experience and energy. I suspect he’d get it simply because in the aftermath of this walloping no one who makes it back into parliament else will want the gig.

    • bwaghorn 37.2
      14 October 2023 at 9:44 pm

      I'd imagine it's a bit of a told you so for chippie going against his senior ministers with his captions call. !

  38. D 38
    14 October 2023 at 9:10 pm

    Hipkins and Robertson need to go if these results hold. They stand for nothing and haven't sold labour to the voters. Hopefully Megan Woods is kicked to the curb as well.

    • pat 38.1
      14 October 2023 at 9:13 pm

      Looks like todays votes are going (M) Woods way…she about 500 ahead now

    • observer 38.2
      14 October 2023 at 9:14 pm

      Maybe, but the most important thing is that tired people don't make good decisions, and Hipkins stepping down before a stock-take would be unhelpful.

      There is a process for a leadership contest, it wasn't used the last two times. Better to have a caretaker (Hipkins) until after the summer break. Labour MPs really need to get off the treadmill and reflect.

    • Belladonna 38.3
      14 October 2023 at 11:12 pm

      So – who are you looking for as the next generation of Labour leaders – from the MPs elected, and/or those high enough on the list to get in if some list MPs resign?

  39. Mike the Lefty 39
    14 October 2023 at 9:16 pm

    The TV coverage has been poor this election. Full of non-relevant natter on TV1 and on Newshub the sounds of many excited people having multiple orgasms.

    Best coverage seems to be here.

    • Kat 39.1
      14 October 2023 at 9:31 pm

      The media have treated politics, politicians and elections like some third rate game show…..shallow as a puddle in a spring shower……

    • lurgee 39.2
      14 October 2023 at 10:10 pm

      To be fair, there hasn't been much to talk about since 7.15. NAtioanl + ACT are masses ahead! They might / might not need Winston! Maori Party thrashing Labour! That's the last three hours.

  40. D 40
    14 October 2023 at 9:20 pm

    Yes good point. I got that wrong. They should stick with hipkins for a bit, perhaps a year. I don't want to say it but bit like a loosing world cup or all blacks coach, stay and hold for stability. But do a proper internal postmortem, then figure the best path

    • Obtrectator 40.1
      15 October 2023 at 12:09 am

      Agree about Hipkins staying on, at least for a while. I don't know how or why this silly "tradition" began of defeated leaders instantly announcing their resignations, but it needs to stop NOW.

  41. observer 41
    14 October 2023 at 9:25 pm

    Luxon will be PM, but National's vote is slowly slipping. Not yet half the votes counted.

    Very possible that NACT will have a majority tonight and lose it on specials! (Winston would grin wider than ever).

    • SPC 41.1
      14 October 2023 at 9:29 pm

      Given the disruption to the vote in south Auckland, it might be only specials or overhang that stop NACT from getting an outright majority.

      • SPC 41.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 9:42 pm

        One wonders how the online roll meltdown impacted on out of electorate voting … by younger voters etc.

    • observer 41.2
      14 October 2023 at 9:31 pm

      OK, I think we can call the trend now: Votes on election day have not gone as well for National as advance votes.

    • lurgee 41.3
      14 October 2023 at 9:55 pm

      Luxon will be PM, but National's vote is slowly slipping. Not yet half the votes counted.

      NACT are only just over 50% now, and then there is the overhang to be negotiated. I suspect they are going to wake up to a hangover tomorrow and the realisation they might have to give Winston that call. And he will not be in a mood for compromise.

  42. Binders full of women 42
    14 October 2023 at 9:29 pm

    Not looking good for a Nanaia.

  43. Jack 43
    14 October 2023 at 9:29 pm

    Fingers crossed for a change in New Lynn. Remember my father dragging me along to Jonathan Hunt meetings in our electorate in the 1980s. Labour has taken our electorate for granted as their own for far too long.

  44. tsmithfield 44
    14 October 2023 at 9:38 pm

    I hope Chippy isn't pressured into resigning if this is a wipe out for Labour. He really had a hospital pass to begin with, and I don't think the result is his fault.

    • SPC 44.1
      14 October 2023 at 9:45 pm

      National should have kept Simon Bridges on and had him contesting the election in 2023.

    • Mike the Lefty 44.2
      14 October 2023 at 10:01 pm

      The result was set up for him even before Jacinda resigned. He battled it out as best he could but he was up against a sullen electorate and an overflowing National war chest.

      • SPC 44.2.1
        14 October 2023 at 10:03 pm

        Did he run in the centre because he was competing there, or so that no one can say the left was defeated on policy? Or both?

        • Mike the Lefty 44.2.1.1
          15 October 2023 at 6:01 pm

          It is highly arguable, but I have looking carefully through the election night figures and there does (to me) seem to be a pattern of Labour voters turning to the Greens in some electorates eg. Hutt South and Banks Peninsular which are two of the closest contests.

          Highly debatable of course, but that is why we are here on this blog.

          • Belladonna 44.2.1.1.1
            15 October 2023 at 6:43 pm

            There is a long-standing apparent pattern – at least in poll results – that when Labour is doing badly, the Greens do well, and vice versa.

            Note – these are poll results – obviously not election ones.

            But, prior to Little's resignation in 2017 – Labour was in the 20s and the GP was in the teens. Following Ardern's appointment, Labour moved to the 30/40 territory and the GP into the tens.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election

            It appears that there are a group of mobile left voters, who move back and forward between the parties. I'm sure there is much the same thing on the right with National/ACT.

            And, not surprising. If you are a left voter, disenchanted with Labour's performance – why wouldn't you shift your vote to the GP (or to TPM, for that matter)

  45. lurgee 45
    14 October 2023 at 9:42 pm

    I remember the 2001 election and how for a brief moment the pundits were talking about a 'Grand coalition of the right' governing New Zealand. Then it all collapsed to an appalling night for National. Obviously that is not going to happen tonight but I am intrigued by how National are wavering on the edge of needing a three way coalition to govern, in spite of being up against a tired two term government that has nothing to offer but broken promises, failed pledges and the vague memory of how they maybe once saved the nation from the Covids.

  46. observer 46
    14 October 2023 at 9:43 pm

    Nats lose another seat.

    It looks more and more likely that there was a late (small) shift to NZF from Nats, on polling day.

  47. Sanctuary 47
    14 October 2023 at 9:49 pm

    Labour got 25% in 2014 and the demise of the party as the main vehicle of the progressive left was widely discussed. Jacinda may prove to have been the dead cat bounce for a party that is structurally doomed to decline unless it seriously reinvents itself from offering dithering centrist managerialism and towards a more populist left wing agenda.

    • weka 47.1
      14 October 2023 at 9:54 pm

      how do you see that might happen?

      • Sanctuary 47.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 10:11 pm

        I predicted to my wife when Deborah Russell was selected for New Lynn Labour would lose the seat in 2-3 elections. Labour has a really bad habit of parachuting in terribly nice middle class liberals who don't know their political arse from their elbow to represent working class seats. They could start by selecting candidates that represent the working class community that makes up their "safe" electorates.

        • weka 47.1.1.1
          14 October 2023 at 10:13 pm

          that makes total sense. Is that possible? Does the LEC manage candidate selection, so theoretically Labour members could drive working class renewal in Labour?

        • AB 47.1.1.2
          14 October 2023 at 11:24 pm

          I recall describing Ardern to friends not too long after she won, as the last and best of the "third way" politicians, and whatever her considerable talents, it still represented a dead end.

        • newsense 47.1.1.3
          14 October 2023 at 11:34 pm

          I think the popcorn will be well and truly out when Labour start talking about some things.

          Fairly amazed that the Greens have attracted 6k electorate votes in Mt Albert.

          It was a climate election. But just on the left. If that makes any sense.

      • Roy Cartland 47.1.2
        14 October 2023 at 10:14 pm

        How about if Labour were able to go more left with their social policies and loudly spruik those. Hard out modern socialist, with environmental in the background.

        Then the Greens could have similar social policies, but they wouldn't need to shout about them so much, they could relentlessly spruik their green ones.

        This would draw heat away from that (albeit silly) refrain that some always bray "I'd vote for GP if they were a 'proper' green party".

        A two pronged message, parties that are similar, but with a clear focus on their respective areas.

        • weka 47.1.2.1
          14 October 2023 at 10:47 pm

          depends on what you mean by social policies. The Greens' GMI/wealth tax policies are deeply embedded in their climate/eco kaupapa. You can't really separate them.

          The GP challenge is how to explain Green kaupapa so that people understand what it is, and then to convince people that it will work.

    • Mike the Lefty 47.2
      14 October 2023 at 9:57 pm

      The Greens' success in Wellington and Te Pati Maori in the Maori seats tells me that a lot of erstwhile Labour voters got sick of their pandering to the centre and jumped ship to someone else who wasn't afraid to promote progressive left policies.

  48. lurgee 48
    14 October 2023 at 10:03 pm

    NACT dip under 50%

    • lurgee 48.1
      14 October 2023 at 10:19 pm

      David Seymour is speaking, trying to look pleased with the idea of watching Winston eating his lunch tomorrow, and every day for the next three years.

  49. Ad 49
    14 October 2023 at 10:08 pm

    Tough break New Lynn whanau.

    • Sanctuary 49.1
      14 October 2023 at 10:26 pm

      Helen White, one of Labour's seemingly endless supply of politically useless and utterly unimspiring middle class professional/academic women, is busy losing Labour yet another seat. She has quite the impressive CV as a serial loser, but keeps getting picked for God only knows reasons.

  50. bwaghorn 50
    14 October 2023 at 10:14 pm

    The right wing are going to hate mmp even more if a tpm success causes them to need nzf

  51. Ffloyd 51
    14 October 2023 at 10:24 pm

    tsmithfield. Totally agree. C. Hipkins is the man but he was thrown in at the deep end,straight into heavy weather, catastrophic issues. He is still working into his leadership but he is all i would look for in our future Leader. Maybe needs to look at inclusiveness in Captains call but his heart and soul is in an egalitarianNew Zealand. His last outing with Luxon left Lux gasping for air. If Nact wins this it gives Labour a chance for a reset. Then we can regroup. Holding my breath for NewShips BUILTs specifically for live animal export Who pays for that? New Hospitals immediately. Really? Immediate Trade With India. Lol . I thoughtChris Hipkins has done a stonking job. Will carry on supporting him.
    Good job all the right wing media for your sterling support for the subguation of all New Zealand citizens .Excellent reporting/ non reporting for your masters. Hope it was all worth it it for you. Very sad.

    • lurgee 51.1
      14 October 2023 at 10:31 pm

      With all due, if this is a stonking job what would a bad, or even an indifferent job look like. We're getting excited at the idea Winston Peters – WINSTON PETERS – might manage to dilute the evil that is about to be unleashed on New Zealand. A stonking job? If you are Chris Luxon, yeah. Chris Hipkins – aided and abetted by his clueless crew and the witless media of New Zealand – managed to make that vacant blundering buffoon Prime Minister. Stonking!

  52. lurgee 52
    14 October 2023 at 10:28 pm

    Jake Tame suddenly looking nervous as he realises everything he's said for the last three hours has been wrong.

  53. SPC 53
    14 October 2023 at 10:32 pm

    At the moment Greens have 13 seats

    Down to Scott Willis – 12 on the list (because Paul down the list won an electorate seat)

    Tana is next off the rank, when it gets to 14.

    https://www.greens.org.nz/2023_candidates

  54. observer 54
    14 October 2023 at 10:32 pm

    There should be a note of thanks from NACT to the TPM party voters. If they had voted for the Greens (or Labour, unlikely) with that party vote then the overhang would be bigger, the Greens would have another seat and NACT would not have a majority.

    Ironically, Meka Whaitiri may be gone, partly thanks to her colleagues winning too many electorates, and demoting her.

    • adam 54.1
      14 October 2023 at 11:27 pm

      Always fun seeing people knock on Te Pāti Māori like an born again act member.

      Maybe you should read the memo and sort out that the Tory's are the enemy.

      Te Pāti Māori who out right won 4 seats, and could have 6 with Mariameno Kapa-Kīngi to walk in with specials. And only a fool would rule out Takutai Natasha Kemp.

      • observer 54.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 11:32 pm

        Maybe you should read the comment again instead of inventing what I said.

        Which part of my comment was inaccurate? The party votes did not add any MPs. Voting for another party would have added MPs. That is a fact.

  55. observer 55
    14 October 2023 at 10:35 pm

    Who had "Maureen Pugh will outlast Simon Bridges by many years" on their prediction card?

    No, me neither. She's still there.

    • newsense 55.1
      14 October 2023 at 11:39 pm

      Bridges seems to be enjoying his life in Auckland? I reckon he’s probably not too unhappy.

  56. Ad 56
    14 October 2023 at 10:39 pm

    Presumably Hipkins stays on to rebuild a succession for 6 months?

  57. Gingercrush 57
    14 October 2023 at 10:42 pm

    Chris Hipkins is talking about achievements in government. Not sure why he didn't mention those during the election. Really think that was Labour's problem. They talked about National more than their own party.

    Also National now dipped under 40%.

    • Roy Cartland 57.1
      14 October 2023 at 10:46 pm

      He's sounding really statesman-like and trustworthy. Compare him to when Lux makes his speech, Lux will sound empty and dodgy. I remember similar when Key won.

  58. Robin The Goodfellow 58
    14 October 2023 at 10:52 pm

    Well the people have spoken but hopefully spoken enough to keep WinstonFirst out of government

  59. SPC 59
    14 October 2023 at 10:56 pm

    At the moment 17 electorates and 16 list seats.

    KM and GA are back.

    DR comes in at 16 off the list

    With CB next in line, if they get another list seat. .

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/494829/labour-releases-party-list-for-2023-election

  60. DS 60
    14 October 2023 at 10:56 pm

    Taieri improving now that South Dunedin is coming in. A bit depressing in that the National candidate did not actually campaign.

  61. observer 61
    14 October 2023 at 10:57 pm

    Approx 4 electorates could change after special votes, including Kelvin Davis.

    Meanwhile, the Nat caucus has shifted far to the right. Hard to find "liberals" in their new intake. Worse than the Key/English years.

  62. Rolling-on-Gravel 62
    14 October 2023 at 10:59 pm

    The cooker vote is above 5% I wonder what will that mean for the future?

    • SPC 62.1
      14 October 2023 at 11:39 pm

      Look more closely TOP over 2%, Aotearoa just legalise it now, Animal Justice and Women's Party got 2.67% of the other vote of 5.22%

      2.55% for the 10 "cooker" parties – 4 in Freedom NZ.

      slang, derogatory, Australia) A person who is cooked; a crazy person. (slang, derogatory, Australia) A conspiracy theorist, especially one who is involved in politics.

      Someone microwaved by authorities, because if they complain about it they get called a tin foil hat conspiracy theorist, formerly extreme left wing fellow traveller and (those receiving leaks) investigative journalists spied upon by the secret services.

      • Rolling-on-Gravel 62.1.1
        15 October 2023 at 12:27 am

        The conspiracy theorist vote then.

        (TOP & ALCP being some of the only non-conspiracy theorist parties in that mix so they and their like is excluded from this discussion.)

        I wonder what this will do for NZ in the future.

        Will there be new movement on abolishing the threshold or reducing the threshold? Or keep it at 5%?

        Personally, I want to keep it at 5% at least until the far right and conspiracy theorist movement fades away.

        They're parties actually worse than ACT, so it's fair to wonder what that will mean for the future.

  63. James 63
    14 October 2023 at 11:01 pm

    Fantastic outcome for this evening. Luxon will be a great PM. Now for Nat / ACT to gut the old Labour policies.

    They need to deliver on some of the big promises quickly.

    • observer 63.1
      14 October 2023 at 11:04 pm

      Nobody believes Luxon will be a great PM. Or even PM for very long.

      Nicola is not going to stand by and watch him throw away a win.

      • James 63.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 11:07 pm

        I do – thus your comment is provably false.

        But given by the huge %age who have voted him to be PM – lots more do as well.

        • observer 63.1.1.1
          14 October 2023 at 11:14 pm

          As you know well, Luxon has less personal support than any predecessor who won an election (Ardern, Key, Clark, Bolger, Lange).

          All the polling evidence tells us that voters wanted change, for many reasons. Admiring Luxon is not one of them.

          But there's no point arguing it now, just wait and watch.

        • weka 63.1.1.2
          14 October 2023 at 11:14 pm

          We don't vote for PMs in NZ.

        • lurgee 63.1.1.3
          14 October 2023 at 11:15 pm

          Huge percentage? Less than 40%, and falling.

    • Roy Cartland 63.2
      14 October 2023 at 11:09 pm

      What exactly are your top policies you want to see gutted?

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 63.3
      14 October 2023 at 11:19 pm

      Then may your smile turn into ash you just tasted, James.

      Whatever might happen, it will not bode well for people like me who are disabled and people on the benefits, who are by the way, some of the most hard done people in NZ.

      I actually do have skin in this and it's not easy to think about more neoliberalism and right-wing ideology being implemented.

      You are voting for a worse version of NZ, a similar version of the UK under Tory control.

      You may want it but at what cost?

    • bwaghorn 63.4
      15 October 2023 at 7:08 am

      Selling houses to foreigners and building prisons , something to look forward to!!

  64. lurgee 64
    14 October 2023 at 11:03 pm

    Labour have managed to put on 1% over the last two hours. Assuming they are just getting warmed up, they might manage to get to 27.5%, maybe even 28%.

    While I may sound facetious I am desperate to see enough movement to force NACT into an arrangement with NZ First. Because it would be better than the alternative and it would be likely to destroy all three for 2026.

  65. Sanctuary 65
    14 October 2023 at 11:13 pm

    Worst result of the night has to be Liz Gunn and NZ Loyal who are currently 1,999,000 votes short.

  66. Sanctuary 66
    14 October 2023 at 11:19 pm

    My final comment of the night. Hipkins dragged Labour to the center and proved once and for all that centrism is now unelectable. Time to come up with fresh ideas.

  67. SPC 67
    14 October 2023 at 11:24 pm

    It’s c 52.4% NACT on party list allocation so the late on the day count and specials has to take LG/TPM up a bit to prevent that unchecked coalition of the neo-liberal class rule authoritarian right.

  69. lurgee 69
    14 October 2023 at 11:39 pm

    NACT trending towards 48%. Special votes, overhangs and wasted votes will screw up all calculations for now.

    I think National should have put in Labour in 2020 performance. They fell slightly short, and may live to rue it.

    • observer 69.1
      14 October 2023 at 11:49 pm

      It is symptomatic of Hipkins' passive leadership that he conceded while National/ACT's majority was falling with every passing update.

      He should simply have said "We recognize that Luxon has the right to negotiate to form a government, and we await the outcome of both the election and the negotiations".

      Of course Hipkins had no realistic path to a majority, but it's not his job to help Luxon get one. Make him sweat.

      • observer 69.1.1
        14 October 2023 at 11:54 pm

        Currently 61 of 121. More likely than not, Luxon will need NZF.

        121 could become 122, 61 could become 60. History says Nats lose seats on specials (even in 2017 they lost 2, from a higher vote than now).

      • lurgee 69.1.2
        15 October 2023 at 12:02 am

        48.2% and a bit of the vote still to come in. Even Jessica Mutch McKay has realised there is a lot still to be decided.

        John Campbell is doing what John Campbell always does – we will be okay because we are New Zelaand. Which is to rather miss the point.

      • Roy Cartland 69.1.3
        15 October 2023 at 12:04 am

        I dunno, I seem to remember when Brash (was it?) wouldn't concede for ages, just made him look churlish, like Trump.

        It's a poisoned chalice – he's reminding lux that he has promised to form a govt with NZF. Good luck!

        • observer 69.1.3.1
          15 October 2023 at 12:15 am

          But Brash was right not to concede. Clark only got there after special votes and doing the Peters and Dunne deals.

          If Brash had conceded on election night the Greens could have got the inside track, like ACT have now.

          (Obviously I wish he had conceded, but from National's point of view it was worth waiting and hoping for an unexpected boost from specials).

          Ardern did not concede in 2017. She was right. National lost 2 seats on specials, and that got her “in the room” with NZF.

  70. Anne 70
    14 October 2023 at 11:50 pm

    We've seen tonight what happens when a political party and side-kick party are allowed to BUY an election win. $8 million plus $4million – something of that order. They swamped the country with hoardings. They swamped social media with their ads. You couldn't go anywhere on the internet without being blinded by their glib lies and that b****y bald head. They hogged the limelight from North Cape through to the Bluff.

    It is the electoral law that allows a bunch of rich pricks to buy elections which is at the forefront of what needs to change. That is NOT democracy in action despite the claims of the MSM.

    • Robin The Goodfellow 70.1
      15 October 2023 at 12:03 am

      Oh please. If all it took was money it'd be National/Act every election

      Labour paid the price for over promising and under delivering

      • lurgee 70.1.1
        15 October 2023 at 12:20 am

        There are some propositions investors prefer not to risk capital in. Judith Collins was one …

        • Robin The Goodfellow 70.1.1.1
          15 October 2023 at 12:29 am

          Yep you've convinced me.

          National won because of the money they spent and not because of Labour basically being useless for two terms.

          • lurgee 70.1.1.1.1
            15 October 2023 at 12:59 am

            On the contrary, my dear fellow, I agree with you! I was just pointing out that your earlier contention, "If all it took was money it'd be National/Act every election" was absolutely correct. No amount of money would have propelled the Collins into power in 2020. Thankfully she met a perfect storm of circumstance and 'presentational excellence' that made her a losing prospect. I don't know how much money the NACT backers pumped into the Collins campaign but if they didn't recognise she was a terrible investment and save their money for a more favourable opportunity they were fools and evidence that wealth does not equal wisdom.

      • Anne 70.1.2
        15 October 2023 at 10:35 am

        RTG my good fellow…. its not the money that did the damage. It was being able to buy shitloads of in-your face ads and bill-boards stretching from North Cape to Bluff. It was being able to saturate social media and the internet with spurious claims and cast false aspersions against opponents with impunity. It was being able to hire aircraft and other 'props' to the tune of god only knows how many thousands/millions of dollars.

        In other words, they were able to dominate every public space available and left other political parties languishing in their wake. The sheeple (of which there are far too many) were lead like lambs to the slaughter.

        It has never happened before on such a massive scale. It was morally wrong and indefensible in a country that professes to be a democracy.

        • Robin The Goodfellow 70.1.2.1
          15 October 2023 at 12:04 pm

          So you basically think that the majority of NZers that voted are simpletons, easily swayed by election hoardings and what not

          Rather than the majority of NZ voters maybe being unimpressed with Labours performance and choosing to vote them out instead

          Ok then

          • Anne 70.1.2.1.1
            15 October 2023 at 12:10 pm

            So you basically think that the majority of NZers that voted are simpletons,…

            No. You made that up.

      • adam 70.1.3
        15 October 2023 at 7:31 pm

        So your are joining in on a complete over hall of funding for elections.

        If like you say, finances don't matter, lets make it a even playing field.

        Then no one can be accused of buying an election with an immense amount of propaganda.

  71. psych nurse 71
    15 October 2023 at 12:10 am

    At a casual glance the total numbers cast for candidates in various electorates greatly excedes the totals of party votes cast, too many falling for the one man one vote nonsence.

    • weka 71.1
      15 October 2023 at 12:14 am

      where are you seeing that?

    • lprent 71.2
      15 October 2023 at 1:33 am

      Basically you appear to be spewing stupid and ill-informed bullshit.

      Show me any electorate that has a variation between the electorate vote and party votes that has a variation of more than say 0.1% – ie something that is significiant.

      With a brief glance through the current results I found the biggest variations to be with informals like in Maungakiekie – which indicate the exact opposite. People ‘informal’ candidate votes more than party – probably because they don’t know who the candidates are (typically by scribbling over or ticking all candidates based on what I have seen when being a scrutineer at counts). But the number of informals is tiny against the number of valid votes.

      The difference between the totals for party and candidate votes is usually less than 30 and usually just a few.That is where one side or another didn’t have any marks at all.

      Candidate Informals:333 Party Informals:100
      TOTAL:25,785 TOTAL:25,782

      Is this misinformation deliberate or just because you are too damn lazy to look the results at https://electionresults.govt.nz/ or just because you were poorly educated in basic arithmetic as a child?

  72. lurgee 72
    15 October 2023 at 12:22 am

    TV1 has followed its election coverage with a mockumentary about the spread of Covid in Britain and the Johnson government's flailing incompetence.

    Which suggests someone responsible for programing is very astute indeed.

  73. lprent 73
    15 October 2023 at 12:59 am

    Not a particularly great result. But it was a very close one. We will have to wait for the final results with specials (November 3rd) and then probably the results of the Port Waikato by-election on November 25th to actually form a government (or its official results on 6 December).

    Or Luxon can enjoy being held over the barrel by Shane Jones and Winston Peters for a earlier confidence and supply.

    Based on the results at the end of the night, Nact was short by at least 1 or 2 seats short given the overhang from the TPM electorate results.

    That same TPM result is going to make Act revisionist racist policies very hard to implement. Legislating ‘equality’ when there is clearly not any in our society when it comes to outcomes for Maori is going to be really discordant.

    The last time that Act’s kind of stupid legislative racist cover up was tried was in 1940 when it was arbitrarily declared that Maori were happy with land settlements and the matter was now closed. That didn’t last because it is impossible to conceal that the there was no agreement from Maori.

    So far I haven’t seen Act suggest any ways to increase Maori lifespans nor to reduce the numbers in prison nor that there was systematic inequality in opportunities. Or even that these are issues that should be addressed. In fact all I see from Act is racist dog-whistles, vaguely encouraged by by a few National idiot MPs.

    So anything that National or Act attempt as a legislative cover-up will be overturned in subsequent legislation, activism, or the courts. They don’t have enough to try to embed such legislation. And I suspect that National wouldn’t even be able to carry their own caucus to vote for anything that would be acceptable to the racists of Act.

    The only time that such legislation would be politically feasible would be when Act could demonstrate that there was an actual equality of opportunity for Maori. Which there clearly hasn’t been in the present or in the past.

    For the people complaining about election coverage, can I suggest a longer search for alternatives.

    Looked at the coverage from TV1 and TV3 early in the evening. Got extremely bored with jumps to houses of politicians with journos comparing pastries and meaningless cuts to campaign headquarters with journos interviewing themselves.

    Found how to get the RNZ video to the TV and stayed there the rest of the night. That was good election coverage TV.

    Has the TV1/3 election coverage always been that terrible?

    • SPC 73.1
      15 October 2023 at 1:34 am

      For me RNZ (audio) and wandering around the web.

      It seemed about 100,000 less votes before specials than in 2020 (maybe those who left in the past year – maybe they will take the specials votes up) … or the voting problems …

      It's 61-60 now, NACT will lose 1 or 2 and National will (unfairly) gain the electorate seat above their party list allocation – balanced by TPM winning 4 seats off a 3 seat party list vote.

      It seems to be either NACT 61-61 (60-61 with speaker) or 60-62. So they will need NZF.

      The latter division of votes delivers to NZF a much stronger negotiating position, as it enables an alternative if NACT ever do the dirty.

    • Belladonna 73.2
      15 October 2023 at 8:52 am

      I found the RNZ coverage excellent – Lisa Owen is an outstanding journalist. And they had interesting and informative guest experts (I particularly rated Sue Moroney & Ella Henry)

      Couldn't stand the TV1 or (even worse) the TV3 game-show format.

      Really, live crosses to journos outside houses, or at election parties – where the noise was so great they could hear – are utterly pointlesss.

  74. lurgee 74
    15 October 2023 at 1:04 am

    I know all you lightweights are asleep but ACT are about to drop below 9%. The NZ film Panthers has just started on TV1. Feels kinda subversive.

    • Patricia Bremner 74.1
      15 October 2023 at 1:35 am

      Pleased to know that Act are down under 9%

      • lprent 74.1.1
        15 October 2023 at 1:48 am

        Not yet. They are at 9.00%

        What is interesting is the 'other' wasted vote – currently at 5.29%


        The Opportunities Party (TOP) 46,471 2.07%
        New Zealand Loyal 26,036 1.16%
        NewZeal 12,599 0.56%
        Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 8,792 0.39%
        Freedoms NZ 6,982 0.31%
        DemocracyNZ 5,527 0.24%
        Animal Justice Party 3,902 0.17%
        New Conservatives 3,565 0.15%
        Women’s Rights Party 1,831 0.08%
        Leighton Baker Party 1,811 0.08%
        New Nation Party 1,283 0.05%

  75. lurgee 75
    15 October 2023 at 1:34 am

    Labour managed to shed 23% points tonight; the Greens picked up 2%. That should give the 'anti-centrists' something to think about. Labour can lose more to the right than the left gains. Obviously this is not a simple equation and leadership, circumstances and the phases of the moon have an impact. But if the Greens simply absorbed Labour's lost votes we wouldn't be having to accustom ourselves to saying "Christopher Luxon, the Prime Minister." Labour needs to defend that flank, because if it fails the consequences are devastating.. Centrism sucks but it is not the enemy here.

    • Bearded Git 75.1
      15 October 2023 at 6:32 am

      From memory I think the Greens had 7.6% on election night 2020. If so they have picked up 3.2% not 2%.

      In fact their vote has gone up a stonking 42%.

      I don’t expect the special votes to behave differently for any reason (I know the Rightists on the MSM are saying that the privileged wankers who could not get into the country during Covid will change the specials result) which means the Left will pick up one or two seats leaving NACT on 60 or 59 and needing Winston. The foreign house buyer policy is toast.

      • observer 75.1.1
        15 October 2023 at 7:17 am

        There's a common misconception about special votes. People tend to think they are overseas votes, but most are not.

        For example, both Hipkins and Luxon cast a special vote (i.e. not in their own electorate).

        The numbers clearly show that early votes were much better for National than votes on election day. Therefore, we can reasonably expect that special votes (people enrolling on the day and so on) will be more like late votes than early ones.

        The chances of a Nat/ACT majority are slim.

        • Bearded Git 75.1.1.1
          15 October 2023 at 4:22 pm

          Obs-After I wrote the post I heard someone say on RadioNZ that only about 10% of special votes are from overseas and that many of them are from people who register on the day, so many students I would guess.

          • Belladonna 75.1.1.1.1
            15 October 2023 at 4:28 pm

            Most students don't vote (stats in the 18-25 age range are the lowest for voting).

            More likely to be workers – people who aren't free to vote earlier in the voting period (all of our early voting booths were 9- 5.30). This might be workers, or small-business owners, or tradies – people who are really busy most of the time. And then think 'it's now or never' and both enrol and vote.

            • Incognito 75.1.1.1.1.1
              15 October 2023 at 5:19 pm

              Most students don’t vote (stats in the 18-25 age range are the lowest for voting).

              I think you’ll find no sound support for your claim.

              • Belladonna …
                15 October 2023 at 5:46 pm

                We can't know for certain, however this was one of the talking points of the Make it 16 campaign (that because students didn't enrol at 16, by the time they were 18 and eligible it was too late & they'd lost interest in politics).

                Here's an indicative article from 2017, showing an estimated 64% enrolled. I doubt much has changed since then.

                https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/95506516/national-campaign-launched-to-get-more-students-voting-in-general-election

                • Incognito …
                  15 October 2023 at 5:59 pm

                  If you cannot be certain why then do you assert the fact? Instead of perpetuating this “the widely-held belief that young voters are not engaged in the political process” you could help dispel the myth.

                  Voter turnout in the 18-24 band was 50.1% of the eligible population in 2017 and 60.9% in 2020. How many of those were students, do you think? Do you still stand by your claim or would you like to amend it?

                  • Belladonna …
                    15 October 2023 at 6:19 pm

                    No idea how many were students. Do you?

                    How does this compare to the rest of the voting population?

                    Rather withdraw my ‘claim’, than engage in a debate with a moderator.

  76. observer 76
    15 October 2023 at 6:48 am

    The election campaign, in brief:

    1) Advance voting started. National 41%.

    2) Hipkins wakes up, starts to campaign. Luxon makes overtures to Winston.

    3) Election Day. Most votes are cast. National 39%.

    Luxon cost National a Nat/ACT majority. Hipkins' long slumber cost Labour seats (if not a win).

    Incompetence all round, and from Labour, inexplicable incompetence. I'm pretty furious, to be honest.

    The only upside is that if Luxon can lose thousands of votes in 2 weeks just because people finally notice him, imagine what he could do in 3 years …

    • bwaghorn 76.1
      15 October 2023 at 7:22 am

      I guess we can take heart a little bit that luxon doesn't appear to be a dirty scheming shit bag like key, unless I've missed something,

    • Dennis Frank 76.2
      15 October 2023 at 7:22 am

      Nice summary. The difference between final result & polling trend may need an explanation, eventually. Undecideds did a reef-fish pivot to National, but why?

      My guess is they wanted a change and didn't want Winston's handbrake on it. Airhead mainstreamers are like that, going with whatever mood change is in the air at the time. Wonder if Labour will ever figure out what's going on…

      • observer 76.2.1
        15 October 2023 at 7:29 am

        Undecideds did a reef-fish pivot to National

        No. That's the opposite of what happened, as I've explained. (All the numbers are on the official site, they tell the story).

        As for the polls being (mostly) wrong, yes they were. As usual. But we (or rather, the media) never learn, because they have no incentive to. They'll be wrong next time as well.

      • joe90 76.2.2
        15 October 2023 at 7:55 am

        My guess is they wanted a change

        My guess is that the top end of town spent a lot of money convincing the reef-fish that their moral panic is justified, the woke apocalypse is upon us and the pervs and the bloody Maaris and their kulcha are taking over. The country has gone to hell in a hand basket and only our preferred right-wing white men can rescue it.

      • newsense 76.2.3
        15 October 2023 at 10:50 pm

        Labour voters stayed home is a bit of a story too?

  77. observer 77
    15 October 2023 at 8:59 am

    567,000 votes still to be counted. 20% of total.

    We play this charade every 3 years, pretending that it's over. Never learn, never change.

    Media saying this morning Luxon wants to pick his Cabinet, announce his policies. He can't. He wants to give the impression that he can, to create a sense of inevitability. Then it gets Trumpy ("evil electoral commission bureaucrats took away our win, election stolen …").

    All political commentators should go back to primary school to learn kiddie maths.

    • Bearded Git 77.1
      15 October 2023 at 4:27 pm

      Obs-drives me mad too. None of the analysts on the radio today would say that almost certainly Luxon will be beholden to Winston. They also said that Twyford was out, when he should easily win his seat on specials. And on the news at 3pm the announcer said that National had won Nelson-not for long I think.

  78. newsense 78
    15 October 2023 at 11:28 am

    All changed, changed utterly: A terrible beauty is born.

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