Open mike 15/10/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, October 15th, 2023 - 143 comments
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143 comments on “Open mike 15/10/2023 ”

  1. Mr Nobody 1

    A new day.

    A new Prime Minister.

    A beautiful sunrise.

    A new hope for New Zealand.

    • Barfly 1.1

      You seem to be a happy minion

      "One seldom recognizes the devil when he is putting his hand on your shoulder."

    • Mike the Lefty 1.2

      Beware the Hope Diamond.

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 1.3

      Being pleased with deliberately cruel policy will cost you your smile eventually, Nobody.

      Yes, a new day and a sunrise but only for those who can survive it and who does survive will not forget the gloating NACT did on last night and beyond.

      There's now an implicit Social Darwinism that is going to run throughout politics in NZ now that we have parties that openly endorses micromanaging and scolding beneficiaries newly in governmental power.

      Don't be surprised if you one day look around you and realize that this has become a meaner, flintier and sadder country than it was before.

      And you likely won't connect that state of affairs to the increasingly run-down politics of the parties that you voted for, or likely, you knew and you don't care because people are such whiners. /sarc

      In any case, enjoy your glass of fine wine paid for by the tax cuts that are likely to going to be funded by reducing our benefit incomes over the next 3 or 6 years. I suspect you're going to need it somehow to ease your likely unacknowledged guilt or hatred or both.

      Take care.

      • Robin The Goodfellow 1.3.1

        Come on now let's not be all over dramatic, National is now a centrist party

        It won't be all that different from Labour

        • Rolling-on-Gravel

          It doesn't matter if it is centrist or not, National is joined with ACT and Luxon basically has signalled that he'd prefer to partner with ACT rather than NZF.

          And you sound like Luxon telling Hipkins to "calm down." and with that, you have no sense of what we're all facing as a community.

        • Barfly

          Centrist laugh

          Take from the poorest 350,000 New Zealanders and give it to landlords? oh do fuck off

        • Tracey

          With ACT and/or NZF policies implemented they will be allowing a Right of Centre and Righter influence. Even Labour isn't Centre anymore, so Nats can't be.

          By comparing the election results to 2020, words like bloodbath' etc overstate the outcome.

          ACT/Nats barely 50% of the vote. Nats down 6% on 2017

          Labour is down 6% on 2017

          ACT gone from .5% in 2017 to 8%

          What has changed is that the two major parties are barely above 60% of the vote. To me, THAT is the bigger story and being overlooked by many.

          Low wages, hig unemployment, beneficiary bashing, high low skill migrancy and higher house prices are coming- because that is what always happens when Nats/ACT are in Govt. They have offered nothing new or transformational. Employment and Environmental laws will shift toward employers and away from the environment and preservation of food production – it will reflect the profit motive.

          Seymour wants to have his cake and eat it on the Treaty. Any referendum ought only be for maori and citizens descended from the British, cos those were the parties tot he treaty. IF he wants to 'go back to what it really means", he must also accept the whole context of what that means.

          Indian, Asian region, South Africams etc are welcome but were never parties tot he Treaty so no referendum participation.

      • Mr Nobody 1.3.2

        The government of today will be the same as the government of yesterday and the struggles that New Zealand faces will be the same.

        However yesterday the people of New Zealand have decided that the old government were unable to address those struggles and that the New government are more capable.

        I hope they are right but if not New Zealand will evaluate the state of affairs again in 3 years time.

        • Tracey

          With ACT and/or NZF policies implemented they will be allowing a Right of Centre and Righter influence. Even Labour isn't Centre anymore, so Nats can't be.

          By comparing the election results to 2020, words like bloodbath' etc overstate the outcome.

          ACT/Nats barely 50% of the vote. Nats down 6% on 2017

          Labour is down 6% on 2017

          ACT gone from .5% in 2017 to 8%

          What has changed is that the two major parties are barely above 60% of the vote. To me, THAT is the bigger story and being overlooked by many.

          Low wages, hig unemployment, beneficiary bashing, high low skill migrancy and higher house prices are coming- because that is what always happens when Nats/ACT are in Govt. They have offered nothing new or transformational. Employment and Environmental laws will shift toward employers and away from the environment and preservation of food production – it will reflect the profit motive.

          Seymour wants to have his cake and eat it on the Treaty. Any referendum ought only be for maori and citizens descended from the British, cos those were the parties tot he treaty. IF he wants to 'go back to what it really means", he must also accept the whole context of what that means.

          Indian, Asian region, South Africams etc are welcome but were never parties tot he Treaty so no referendum participation.

          The 'people' decided someone must be punished for the impact of fighting a global panemic, and they hanker for the way things used to be. Ergo, they voted in parties who want to implement policies from yesterday…

    • Robin The Goodfellow 1.4

      Agreed, the potential is there and hopefully we can all grasp it

    • RRM 1.5

      A RIVER OF FILTH got voted out of parliament last night.

      The world is healing laugh

      • Barfly 1.5.1

        Would you like to enlighten as to what you mean>?

        • Mr Nobody

          Labour Votes
          2020 Election: 1,443,545
          2023 Election: 606,663
          Change: -836,882

          Labour Seats
          2020 Election: 65
          2023 Election: 34
          Change: -31

          2020 Election Results
          2023 Election Results

          • Barfly

            Are you suggesting that the 31 Labour MPs lost was a "RIVER OF fILTH"?

            • weka

              probably a reference is to Michael Wood being out of parliament. There is a political point to be made here about Wood's use of the term 'river of filth', but I will be keeping a moderator eye on this that it's not being used to flame.

            • Mr Nobody

              I'm suggesting 836,882 New Zealanders from all walks of life have decided that Labour have not been able to deliver the promises they have made over the last 3 (arguably 6) years and to improve their lives and the country that an alternative government is required which at this point is one made up of National, Act and potentially NZ First.

              You may personally feel different however it would seem based on current results your feelings are in the minority.

              Elections are not personal, or should be seen as personal attacks etc but rather a contest of ideas, beliefs and opinions within society which enable a group of individuals the ability to walk a path satisfactory to the majority of those individuals.

              Personally I've not been happy with the path we as a country have walked over the past 6 years, and hope the next 3 years will be better for all of New Zealand.

              I do not believe you and I are enemies but rather indivduals walking the same path with different viewpoints and enemies.

              Have a good day. Tomorrow the path may alter in a direction you prefer and I do not, but either way the sun will still rise.

              • Barfly

                Well I guess as the great philosopher said

                "Success is the only earthly judge of right and wrong"

                So enjoy your victory devil

                • Mr Nobody

                  It is not my victory but rather a victory for democracy and for all New Zealanders.

                  • Barfly

                    Is this including the disabled who will receive less $ to live on in future? I don't see how it can be a victory for them. Can you explain how that works?

                    • Mr Nobody

                      This is a victory for all New Zealanders who used their democratic rights to elect a government that best represents them.

                      Like all governments there will be policies that positively and negatively effect each of us indivdually just like there were in the last government.

                      For the sick, ill and disabled I can only speak for my own circumstances (2 children and myself with disabilities) overall we calculate to be $200-300 per week better.

                    • Barfly

                      I guess that's the difference between you and me – you count the $ and say "yay more for me" whereas I see that the poorest and least able to survive will get less $ and I am appalled.

                    • Mr Nobody []

                      Not at all. You were the one who brought up the topic of money, for me money is obviously significant as being on a limited budget the ability for my family to ensure a roof over our heads, food in the pantry, bills paid etc is a fairly major worry that has only gotten worse over the last few years.

                      However the more important factors for me are is the ability to be able to have the cops turn up or an ambulance turn up when you call 111 (from whom I been told by both in the past 12 months when contacted nobody is available), or to take my daughter into a hospital A&E due to seizures and haventhem seen in less than 10 hours or for my kids able to get a quality education vs being sent home multiple times because their teachers are striking etc etc.

                      I want a better country for my kids, their friends and the future and the last Goverment were incapable of providing it. Hopefully this one is, otherwise perhaps the one after that.

          • Craig H

            Still ~570,000 special votes to be counted yet which is more than in 2020. Not that Labour are going to get close to 2020's numbers anyway, but there are still enough votes that the comparison will change a bit, particularly the percentage drop.

          • Mike the Lefty

            Well Mr Nobody much did you in fact notice that National didn't actually do as well in 2023 as Labour did in 2020?


            Let me explain it simply for you.

            After 2020 Labour didn't need ANYONE to help it form a government. It had a majority of 10 seats and could have done it on its own (for the first time in MMP history) but in its spirit of inclusiveness it decided to let the Greens in as well.

            National HAS to rely on Seymour to get anything passed. Either that or give into Winston's mob rule.

            And at present it looks like the NACTS will have a one-seat (probably two seats after Port Waikato) majority.

            Hmmm! not quite so rosy when you look at it that way is it?

            Plus if Te Pati Maori manages to pick up another seat on specials the majority will be down to one.

            One seat majority!

            Wow! Gosh! Golly gee!, that's an impressive result after all the mega millions the 1% have pumped into the NACTs over the last year. Should have used the growth fund, not the conservative fund, huh?

            Wait until the fun starts and ACT wants to take off stat holidays from workers. The centrists in National will get a bit uneasy about that.

            There might be a few fights.

            I'll get the popcorn!

            Sorry to rain on your parade Mr Nobody much but you don't know shit.

            • Mr Nobody

              I'm more than happy with National/Act/NZ First coalition.

              While any coalition has the potential for conflicts and difficulties and obviously the more parties the more possibility for them occur, however I do believe that each of these parties can if tthey want to play ttogether they can and that each will be significantly mmotivated to make it work.

              • Mike the Lefty

                Excuse me while I piss myself laughing.

                • Mr Nobody

                  They can.

                  Whether they choose to is a different question and if they dont/can't then in 3 years time we will see a swung back to Labour/Greens.

                  Either way NZ will be better or we'll all have 3 more years of Government fuckups.

    • Gabby 1.6

      And what would this new hope consist of?

  2. Dennis Frank 2

    Too close to call (5 seats):

    Means we have to wait a couple of weeks for the final count to see the shape of the new govt I guess. A stunning margin for Brooke van Velden – she thrashed the neanderthal thoroughly! Two Green women made history in Wellington, Chloe held her seat. Good results for young female politicians and their younger generations will be inspired by those role models.

    • Belladonna 2.1

      While these results may flip seats in individual electorates (important for the people concerned, and for those individual electorates), it's the party vote which decides the government.

      While there is a possibility of an overhang if both of the Maori seats still in play, go to TPM – this won't make a left-government possible.

  3. Mike the Lefty 3

    A couple of points that have been a bit overlooked in last night's blue euphoria.

    In 2020 Labour scored a clear majority of seats in its own right.

    National did not do that last night, it still needs ACT to form a new government, which finally gives Seymour Butts the power and influence he has craved for years. He will be pushing for senior cabinet positions, no mistake. Landlords, loan sharks and Geoff Upson will be sooooo happy.

    On projected results the NACTS hold a one-seat majority which we can assume will rise to two after the Port Waikato by-election and only another electorate claimed by Te Pati Maori on special votes would likely change that.

    Winston's rag tag of pirates and conspiracy theorists will end up just another opposition party and won't be able to do s…t (fortunately perhaps). Winston will (not publicly at least) be very pissed off and we can expect NZ First to be a bunch of annoying f..wits in the next parliament – good at collecting their parliamentary salaries but little else.

    From my perspective, I knew this was coming but my resigned disappointment is tempered by the spectacular results achieved in Wellington by the Greens. Taking the seat of Wellington Central and ahead in Rongotai, not to mention Chloe probably assured in Auckland Central. Also think that Te Pati Maori ran a good campaign.

    • Robin The Goodfellow 3.1

      Yes I agree.

      A great result, potentially, National tempered by Act and Winston in Parliament by impotent on the opposition seats (hopefully)

    • Mike….they also need NZF.

      There is (at least) one overhang from the Maori seats and there will be one from the by election, so this will be a parliament of 122.

      NACT have 61 seats now but will lose at least one in the specials and gain one from the by-election. So they will have 61 seats (maybe 60) in a 122 house-this is not a majority. Winston is in the drivers seat.

      • Mike the Lefty 3.2.1

        Yes that is a possibility because the Greens traditionally pick up another list seat on specials, but since they will (should) now have three electorate seats their share of the party vote may not entitle them to an extra list seat this time.

        It may come down to a bit of complicated maths.

        I guess we'll find out in a couple of weeks.

        • Belladonna

          The GP electorate seats won't affect whether or not they pick up another seat in the specials.

          That's based on the party vote.

          Since the GP don't have any seats where they are in close second place, it's not likely to affect the electorate results for them. [Well, I suppose they could lose Rongotai – but I don't think it likely]

          So if the GP increase their share of the party vote with the special votes they'll automatically gain another MP – and since they are already past their electorate MP numbers, and into the list – it will be another list MP.

    • mikesh 3.3

      If Labour had scored a more normal result in 2020 last night's fiasco might not have seemed so bad. Even so it was not good.

  4. Rolling-on-Gravel 4


    Well, that's it, really.

    That was positively nightmarish.

    I just hope we can get a re-ascendant left-wing in the next three years and technically this means we have good ground on which to build on.

    Greens and TPM didn't do too badly, all things considered. Labour has lost hard and it has to re-form into a different party to even try to capture the moment once more. TOP miscalculated with its openly flip-flop strategy when it came to keeping its party options open; a strategy that was always liable to be subject to misinterpretation.

    This also is a rather ambivalent moment for the right in a sense: National/ACT is on a knife's edge, balancing between 61 or 62 or even 60 seats. It all depends on how TPM or Greens are performing with the special votes. This will impact how National is going to interact with NZ First and if 60 votes or less, short of which is needed to form a government, then depending on how much they hate Winston Peters, National will have to consider either a trip back to the voting stations or begrudgingly call him. If over or at 62, we will have to prepare for a pure NACT government that is subject to nearly nobody else.

    In any case, this means we have to build a movement anew, to work at the flaxroots and be of the people in New Zealand who will suffer at the hands of the incoming government regardless of whatever may happen.

    Kia kaha, indeed.

    • Robin The Goodfellow 4.1


      It means we come together and give the new government a chance to succeed because if the government is successful we're all successful

      Now is not the time for being selfish

      • Rolling-on-Gravel 4.1.1

        Successful in what sense?

        Selfish in what sense?

        Why are you asking that I should give the new government a chance to succeed if I have seen them to say that people like me are "BOTTOM FEEDERS"?

        If you were in my position, would you want them to succeed in hurting you and your groups?

        The policies are lousy and what they are proposing are similar to what Britain is doing in terms of benefits and disabled people and it's proven that sanctions and cuts over there has severely harmed or killed hundred of thousands of disabled people.

        I do not want that to happen here.

        • Robin The Goodfellow

          Successful in that Labour now have a chance to do what they should have done in 2017

          Successful in that Winston is not in government (maybe)

          Successful in that Act has some power

          Pretty successful night all round

          • Rolling-on-Gravel

            I'm sorry. I don't find much to rejoice with except for Greens improving its vote share.

            Plus you just castigated me for making pretty much the same points as you and Mike, so that's just a tone thing?

            Ok, I'll try to smile and not make much trouble so you can walk on unimpeded by what troubles people in dire straits, then.

      • bwaghorn 4.1.2

        Putting house prices on turbo again bashing the poor, more prisons , something to look forward to

        • Robin The Goodfellow

          Since the 2000s house prices have surged under Labour and yes if people commit crimes then yes they should be in prison (a major reason why Labour lost)

          • bwaghorn

            Can you point to anywhere in the world where prisons have solved crime?

            • Robin The Goodfellow

              They've already committed the crime to become the prisoner but at least with prisons you can temporarily remove the criminal from society for a period of time

              Again a major reason why Labour lost

    • Heather Grimwood 4.2

      To RoG at 4 : Indeed!

    • Jack 4.3

      The opposition should provide plenty of entertainment over the next three years. A Labour leadership spill, no new talent to speak of, just a smaller version of the same. Greens and TPM trying to outdo each other for the most extreme version of hard left. James and Marama to be challenged for leadership by MPs who actually have an electorate. Should be fun.

      • Robin The Goodfellow 4.3.1

        Chloe warming up for a tilt at the leadership you reckon

        • weka

          two very ignorant comments about the Greens' leadership. The Greens are happy with their result, not the kind of environment for leadership challenges, and the Greens don't roll leaders.

        • Gabby

          She'd make a good Labour leader.

      • Rolling-on-Gravel 4.3.2

        How fun. Yay, likely having to choose between a can of food or to miss the doctor in a mission to re-certify your disability or pay the bills with increasingly dwindling income amounts over years and what's more your landlord is likely is going to no-cause evict you at a moment's notice. Yay, good fun indeed! Hooray!

        I want to be wrong because this is such a dangerous juncture in political history, we are on the verge of being prepared for the future with climate change with some protection or deny the climate has changed and that we will leave the most vulnerable behind.

        I want NACT to be weakened if it's going to carry its worst policies.

  5. Dennis Frank 5

    Epic surge for TMP last night!

    Maipi-Clarke also thanked Mahuta for her mahi in the electorate over the years, and said it laid the groundwork for local rangatahi like herself to succeed. “I’ve been inspired by whaea Nanaia my whole life in terms of her political leadership,” she said.

    Potaka Maipi, her dad, told The Spinoff: “I prepared her to get thrashed, not to win. Our aim was to close the gap.” The gap being the 9,000-vote majority Mahuta won in 2020. Maipi-Clarke’s roughly 1,000-vote majority this time around means she swung 10,000 votes in her direction.

  6. adam 6

    Only slaves think Democracy stops at the ballot box.

    • newsense 6.1

      Hear, hear!

      And with the bent of this next government somewhat more authoritarian (policy? don’t you worry about that) than the last few, we’ll get to find out how democratic we are too.

      As in all things Labour has been making a rod for our backs with increasing numbers of secrecy clauses.

  7. tsmithfield 7

    My sympathies to those here who are likely very disappointed with the result. I certainly understand how you all feel given the result at the last election.

    I do think Labour's negative campaign backfired on them though. The adds I saw were focussed on discouraging people from voting National. I think this may have worked to some degree, given how the margin pulled back as voting passed around the 50% count. But, what I noticed was that NZ First increased their vote share while Labour didn't really go up much.

    So, it looked to me like people who got the Labour message responded by voting NZ First rather than Labour.

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 7.1

      I voted for Greens, knowing NZF isn't a good bet and I avoided Labour.

      I hope that we can make it through the years without much scathing.

      We need it because we need to re-build as a whole.

      And I think it's going to be rebuilt.

      (How's that for optimism, Robin? Next time do not tell me that I’m being selfish. We’re all on the same side or should be.)

    • Craig H 7.2

      Most of the National ads I saw were attacking Labour, but obviously that didn't have the impact on National's vote that the ads attacking National had on Labour's vote.

  8. Robin The Goodfellow 8

    Black Caps going well, National take the election and the All Blacks playing like All Blacks

    Plus the sun is shining

    • Rolling-on-Gravel 8.1

      "Black Caps going well, National take the election and the All Blacks playing like All Blacks

      Plus the sun is shining"

      National take the election

      So that's why you basically told me to calm down and not to be overly-dramatic.

  9. alwyn 9

    I have only one regret.

    I wish I could pick the winning Lotto tickets as well as I managed to pick the election result. I expect to lose another seat with the specials, but to get it back with the by-election.

    13 October 2023 at 10:53 am

    • Robin The Goodfellow 9.1

      I regret Winston being back in Parliament but as long as he stays away from power its all good

    • SPC 9.2

      Labour's 34 MPs will include 30 electorate seats. I think that Prime, Rurawhe, Little, Parker, McAnulty and Andersen will be left in the cold with Jackson being the last cab off the rank.

      It's 17 seats and 17 list seats. So all of the above are back off the list.

      • alwyn 9.2.1

        Like everyone else I prefer to forget the fine points of my statement. I, of course, concentrate on the bits I happened to get right.

        I am like the people who take the view that the left won the election because TMP now have double the number of seats and the Green Party have 40% more MPs.

        Then they ignore the minor little point that that is only 6 more seats and meanwhile Labour lost 31.

    • Alwyn-I would have thought you would regret that NACT are in thrall to NZF.

      That is the tax cuts gone, the foreign buyer ban stays, etc etc

      • alwyn 9.3.1

        I certainly agree that Winston will have his price. He can be reasonable however in what he demands and what he will give up. I doubt if he would go as far as to force a deadlock and therefore a new election.

  10. Ric 10

    Who will get in to parliament as Labour list mps ?

  11. Barfly 11

    Troll picnic at the standard today

    • weka 11.1

      it would be good for everyone to keep focused on the politics and robust debate. Moderation will deal with the trolls yes

  12. Dennis Frank 12

    Looks like the specials will change the lie of the land – being a fifth of the whole gives them considerable leverage.

    Special votes are up on the past two elections, at an estimated 567,000 (20.2% of total votes), which includes 80,000 overseas and dictation votes.

    The official results will be published on Friday November 3.

    Aucklanders became extremely hostile to Labour! The map of Ak seats usually red that turned blue was a dramatic sight even without Gower's hyperbole ramping it.

    National’s campaign leader has confirmed that Christopher Luxon hasn’t yet spoken to Winston Peters, after the full ordinary vote count showed National and Act could govern alone, albeit with a single seat majority.

    “Our preference was to govern with the Act Party and essentially that has happened on the current numbers,” he told Jack Tame on Q&A this morning, but he wasn’t “counting chickens” just yet, with nearly 20% of votes still to be counted in the form of special votes. “It may be that with the specials the numbers bounce around a bit and, if required, we said we’d pick up the phone to Winston Peters and it may be that that is necessary.”

    • Luxon talking bollocks (lying? but why?) as usual. At best after specials NACT will have 61 seats in a 122 parliament-no majority there so they need NZF.

      It could even be 60 NACT seats in a parliament of 123.

  13. SPC 13

    Funny that Luxon uses the term "track", rather than road. Given National do not invest in rail, is this a warning that they are going to raid the carbon vehicle graveyard repair fund?

    And these bad bad multiple property barons are also planning to rob the public domain to line the pockets of the few landlords.

  14. Todd Packer 14

    So why did the greens who were polling 14% only get 10% and with all these weather events maybe they shouldve been at 20%. Also not a good look to act like ya won in a landslide and give ya speech drunk.

    [I think that you are an astroturfing troll who crawled out from underneath your bridge. Let’s see if you’re intelligent enough to stop drawing attention to yourself. However, in my experience trolls are too stupid and self-entitled to self-moderate and avoid detection – Incognito]

    • SPC 14.1

      Are you going to specialise in making comments about female politicians?

    • Dennis Frank 14.2

      Since the start of MMP they have used a flawed marketing strategy: they pitch to the minority who think like them. They have nothing in their repertoire to suitably frame a pitch for the commons, where the numbers always reside. Their partisan stance is an immense handicap for them.

      Re the difference tween polls & result: factor in the undecided (around 10%). If they hadn't done the reef-fish thing, but instead gone in multiple directions, we'd have a totally different result. Crowd psych is a wonderful thing… frown

      • Belladonna 14.2.1

        My pick is that the truly Undecideds mostly didn't vote. Turnout is 78%.

        I think that the difference between the polls and the election result is mostly within the margin of error – and that we spend too much energy celebrating or bemoaning a 1% poll shift. It's not significant.

        • Craig H

          Agree, and also they may increase their proportion of the vote when the special votes are counted.

      • weka 14.2.2

        the Greens have just increased their MPs by 40%, probably 50% by the time the Specials are counted. What are you on about?

        • Dennis Frank

          The long-term view. Strategic thinking emanates therefrom. I agree the vote for a return to socialist governance is significant but don't expect anyone to draw that conclusion – the view is too historically valid for younger generations to grasp easily. They play the game in the short/medium term – it works for them.

    • Incognito 14.3

      Mod note

    • Todd Packer 14.4

      Seriously. They were polling 14%, Got 10%. With what's happening with climate change they shouldve gotten 20%. The speeches that were televised, they came across that they though they won in a landslide. In a country like NZ the greens should be pushing 20%.

    • Todd Packer 14.5

      Yeah well the jerk store just called….

      [As expected from a stupid troll, you couldn’t help yourself with all your aliases and had to confirm that you indeed belong under your bridge permanently. Say ‘Hi’ and play nice with the other trolls – Incognito]

    • weka 14.6

      So why did the greens who were polling 14% only get 10% and with all these weather events maybe they shouldve been at 20%. Also not a good look to act like ya won in a landslide and give ya speech drunk.

      As Incognito has pointed out, you look like a troll.

      The polling average peaked at around 12.5%

      The Greens got 10.77% (thus far). They almost always poll better than they get on election night.

      I wrote a post about the numbers for the Greens and why this was a good election for them. See if you can learn something.

  15. higherstandard 15

    I recommend omeprazole 20mg o.d.

    [TheStandard: A moderator moved this comment to Open Mike as being off topic or irrelevant in the post it was made in. Be more careful in future.]

    [I have a much better option: take time away from trolling here on TS until the day after the by-election. Bye – Incognito]

    • Incognito 15.1

      Mod note

    • Barfly 15.2

      Omeprazole controls my GERD (courtesy of a Hiatus Hernia) really well usually – but as a warning the new family of diabetes drugs – Trulicity, Ozempic Wegovy etc stops omeprazole dead in it's tracks /cue pain.

  16. AB 16


    Inflation: Tracks down, but more slowly than hoped. Oil and food prices are the sticking point. 2024 El Nino summer in the northern hemisphere causes major agricultural disruption and inflationary pressure. Luxon’s cutting of ‘wasteful spending makes zero difference, because it was never a cause of inflation in the first place.

    Employment & Wages: Unemployment rises due to sustained high immigration and public service cuts. Fair Pay Agreements are gone and minimum wage are frozen. Wages decline in real terms while inflationary pressure lingers. Tax cuts favour those facing the least downward pressure on their wages.

    Housing: Foreign buyers trigger asset price inflation at the top end which percolates downwards. This top-down pressure meets bottom-up pressure from domestic landlords due to the reduction of the Brightline and mortgage interest deductibility. House prices rise to easily outpace the CPI and flat wage growth. Housing affordability declines, property ownership becomes more concentrated. Real estate industry booms – expensive restaurants fill up.

    Meddling with Kainga Ora reduces capacity to build public housing. Private sector is green-lighted to build housing in “freed up” land on the peripheries. Potential state house tenants are herded out to private rentals on the city margin. Land bankers profit – expensive restaurants fill up. Reduction in regulations concerning the quality of rentals see a drop in quality and more poor health. Homelessness increases.

    Climate Change/Infrastructure: Agriculture gets an additional exemption on emissions targets. Work on technology to reduce methane emission delivers nothing that can be affordably deployed at scale, so the exemption is extended twice. Agriculture sees pressure from some export markets to reduce emissions – so dependency on the Chinese market increases, cranking up sector fragility even higher.

    Uptake of EVs declines as they become less affordable. Local car-industry profiteers by adding huge markups to potentially low-price, Chinese EVs – expensive restaurants fill up. Road-building increases car-dependency, Labour’s subsidies on public transport are removed adding more wage pressure. NZ’s car fleet ages further. Two dry summers cause drought and shortfall in hydro capacity – coal is burned. Uptake of solar continues but does not cover the gap. New Zealand reneges on Paris commitments. Two El Nino summers means a respite from floods – but farmers need bailouts from drought. Next La Nina sees extreme damage. National throws cost onto Councils so as not to increase government debt. Insurance industry walks away from some regions and localities. Rates rise steeply, the non-wealthy retired start to lose their homes so house ownership concentrates further – expensive restaurants fill up. The uninsured who lose homes are herded into trailer parks. Low population growth regions struggle with permanently bad transport links. Affordable Water (3 Waters) is stopped. Councils are left to cope. Most problems are left unaddressed, where some attempt is made it adds to pressure on rates.

    Race Relations; An initial ugly period where gleeful right-wing supporters demand removal of Maori language from government communications. Luxon walks back more extreme rhetoric and forces Seymour to abandon the Treaty referendum. Co-governance and Te Whatu Ora are gone. The Maori Party grows stronger and angrier. Problems are stored up.

    Health: Workforce gaps prove stubborn to fill because of international competition. Flat wages for nurses and technicians increase migration pressure to Australia. Huge lead time on new medical school and first graduates from it. The two-tiered (insured versus uninsured) health system widens gaps. Private sector medical specialists make out like bandits – expensive restaurants and overseas flights fill up. Mental health declines, greater poverty increases preventable diseases resulting from obesity such a diabetes. Maori health statistics go backwards. More stress among the elderly from having to fund private health care. Labour’s hospital construction projects are dialled back but completed – then not much else.

    Education: Another round of ‘reform’ soaks up time and frustrates teachers. Any increase or decrease in student performance is within the margin of error and bears no relation to the reform programme. Gaps in performance between kids from wealthy and poor households widen. Private tertiary education sector kicks off again selling residency under the guise of education – money is made, expensive restaurants fill up.

    Tourism: Post-Covid recovery continues. High immigration lowers real wages and increases profitability. Then the mass market tails off as oil prices keep fares high, climate events spoil tourist experiences and (eventually) climate change increases fears of flight safety. Industry hits a natural ceiling and begins to decline. Much gnashing of teeth and call for subsidies.

    Public mood: initial sugar rush as some sectors kick off with high immigration, housing inflation, tax cuts and deregulation. A gleeful, contemptuous orgy of looting and wealth extraction by those in a position to do so. Honeymoon period lasts 2 years and National easily returned. Doubts surface in term two, initial sugar hit slows, stored up problems begin to emerge. 2029 election is contestable. Great damage has been done. World has passed 1.5C heating over pre-industrial. 3-4+C increase by 2100 looms. One or more dangerous tipping points are already triggered. Public at large still mostly unconcerned and National just get back for a third term.

    • Luxon has to get the foreign buyers policy through Winston yet, which he won't.

    • Dennis Frank 16.2

      Luxon walks back more extreme rhetoric and forces Seymour to abandon the Treaty referendum.

      Yeah, I thought that too. However one must allow common ground to be formed via goodwill, so if they get it with Winston it's a goer – unless he has already adopted an entrenched position against it.

    • Barfly 16.3

      I predict an increase in suicides as the mentally ill are especially vulnerable to demonisation and harassment. Statistically a NACT government could claim a success in reducing the long-term beneficiary count so long as people don't look at where the 'success' comes from.

  17. Mr Milchick 17

    There needs to be a change at the had of PR for the Greens. The best speech of the night was Chris Hipkins, understated, raw, loyal and it came off as real. To celebrate going up 2% in the party vote, was not needed.

    What the Greens must do is have an honest discussion, on how to increase it's support, the work behind the scenes is mysterious and important, but it needs to be done.

    • weka 17.1

      the Greens increased their MPs by nearly 50%, and tripled their electorates. If you look at the 2017, 2020, and 2023 election results it’s easy to see how they are building the party and the vote.

      As for celebration, I wrote a post about why they are doing that, it’s on the front page.

      • Dennis Frank 17.1.1

        Yeah, an excellent performance. Cannibalising Labour. Zero-sum strategy of the left does indeed work. yes

        • Bearded Git

          "Cannibalising Labour"

          No I think they voted Green because they realised it was a party with strong and consistent policies and ethics. You make it sound as though some voters owe Labour their vote come what may.

    • Patricia 2 17.2

      What the Greens need to learn is how to use a microphone. Both Chloe and Marama screeched their way thru their victory speeches. Hard to understand them both.

  18. Dennis Frank 18

    What the Greens must do is have an honest discussion, on how to increase it's support

    Human nature, though, is a problem. Time is money, and discussions free-range naturally. Nobody in the Greens has ever claimed to have marketing nous, to my knowledge, which is the expertise required to increase support.

    Firstly they'd have to account for their relationship to the broader Green movement. Problem: doing so requires moral integrity! That's why it hasn't happened yet.enlightened

  19. Jester 19

    What a great positive weekend. And to top it off, an All Blacks win against the odds.

  20. Barfly 20

    Sweatng, nausea, shaky hands and the spins ah balls.

    • Barfly 20.1

      Half a can of coke and feeling better

    • Subliminal 20.2

      The same thing happened to Captain Haddock when he accidentally drank a glass of water. His remedy was half a bottle of whiskey. I only mention this because of your name. Glad you're feeling better!

  21. weka 21

    tell me why it would be better for Nact to need Peters to form government. Not vague handbrake stuff, but specific policy that he has a chance of getting through.

  22. Dennis Frank 22

    I've been re-reading Haidt's Righteous Mind & he mentions this:

    We published a paper in Science in 2005 showing that you can predict a substantial percentage of election outcomes using snap judgments of politicians’ faces.

    Instant biological signalling is part of our evolutionary heritage – an instinctive survival skill. Democracy, however, presumes voters think about issues. Political commentators who follow this line default into acceptance. Yet the Bulgarian prof who came to prominence at Princeton showed people normally just react to the face of the politician. I suspect the ephemeral engagement of floaters in the political process hinges on this.

  23. newsense 23

    Waiting for the international headlines:

    Parties whose climate policy was ‘Nah, nah, nah not listening infinity plus one more than you’ attempting to form next NZ government.

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