Written By:
geoff - Date published:
9:54 am, September 30th, 2017 - 60 comments
Categories: bill english, national, paula bennett, Steven Joyce -
Tags:
Hi, just a quick post about what might be happening inside the National party.
We’ve seen the approach to the Greens in the media via Paula Bennett and commentators have pointed out that this would be good for National as it would do several things at once.
It would give them a majority, it would divide the opposition and it could cause the eventual death of the Green party if its core supporters abandon the party for going with National.
This might look like smart politics but a more primary motivation might be that English/Joyce and co. are desperate to form a coalition with anyone, otherwise as individuals, they’ll certainly lose their power within the party in the inevitable shakeup.
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It seems telling that it is Bennett who is desperately trying to get this blue-green kite to fly. As part of the price for a NZF coalition, Peters is going to want a scalp for leaking his super details. And just who has form for outing beneficiaries in National’s caucus?
Leaders tend to fall after their leadership fails.
There’s a high probability that, if National aren’t returned to government, Bennett will not only lose the deputy PM job but also a list ranking high enough to ensure that she will be back as an MP.
” but also a list ranking high enough to ensure that she will be back as an MP”.
Please. What planet are you living on?
On election night she got 17,514 votes. Her nearest opponent got 8,740 so her majority was 8,774 votes.
What would it matter what her list placing was, or will be? Do you really think that a Labour candidate could turn that around in 2020.
You have heard, I assume, that electorate winners get in ahead of anyone on the party list?
That would depend upon her keeping her position as electoral candidate at the next election wouldn’t it?
Planning on challenging her for the National nomination are you?
I haven’t checked but the only time this century that I can remember a National MP missing out on getting the nomination for their electorate when they stood again was when John Key first stood in 2002.
Even Todd Barclay had been re-nominated, after all.
I am open to correction of course if there were others. I am relying on memory rather than research.
Colin King was rolled in Kaikoura. There are some who are still not happy!
Correct, and thank you. I must confess that when I saw the name my first reaction was “who?”.
And Dan, the current Nat MP in Kaikoura is only respected by his mates in the wine world. He cares nothing about those who toil away for the real people.
Described by Winston Peters in Blenheim this election as the “neo-liberal back-stabber who has done nothing since getting elected”.
I believe that viscerally Winston has a very strong dislike of many National politicians.
I hope that this translates into action come early October.
Unlikely but both Labour and National have turned larger majorities.
Nonetheless that statement yesterday also has all the hallmarks of Joyce.
And the long term plan is to destroy the Greens. Use them now to hold on to power then let the electorate abandon them from 2020. That’d be too complex a thought for Bennett. It’s Crosby-Textor telling the nats to learn from the lib-dem example.
National is essentially bereft of friends.
Yes Brendan, the MSM don’t want to talk about the Nats lack of friends-you need 44.8% (their likely final vote) PLUS friends under MMP. The Nats would not be screaming so much about a coalition with the Greens if they were confident Winston was going to keep them in power.
John Armstrong today claims NZF’s long-term future would be better protected by going with the tired corrupt devious Nats-not sure how he reaches this conclusion.
I don’t see how this could be sustainable for NZ First (Armstrong’s assertion). There was a Colmar Brunton poll done in the last couple of days that suggested two-thirds of NZ First voters want to see NZ First support a Labour-led government. It seems during the MMP-era parties that have allied with National suffer long-declines (ACT, United Future, Māori Party), whereas parties that have allied with Labour (Green, NZ First) have had a bit more sustainability, albeit at the expense of Labour. I guess NZ First supporting National 1996-1999 did them some damage, and they were turfed from Parliament in 2008, but they’ve never really dipped below 4%. I guess the Alliance and Progressive parties could be considered a victims of association with Labour, but then most of their voters probably got picked up by the Green Party. I think ANY party that supports a fourth National term knows this is basically electoral suicide, especially the Green Party, considering that the majority of voters did not vote for the status quo. National’s attempt to destroy both NZ First and the Greens backfired on them, so they only have themselves to blame for this precarious position. I think to a certain extend Labour is also guilty of trying to play an FPP election, but not nearly as much as National.
I’d love to be on a joint Labour-Green election strategy team for the next election. It would come with a whole lot more strategy and and pragmatism.
The Alliance was a victim of itself and it’s leaders (mostly Jim Anderton) and the Progressive Party (that wasn’t) was like UF in that it was really the Jim Anderton Party and so, once he retired, it was gone.
The same why all the sycophants do – belief in the delusion.
Given he wrote Nats off a few weeks ago…
“not sure how he reaches this conclusion”.
Because that’s what he was told/paid to say.
Yep, that too.
46 % of voters like them enough to give them a party vote , so they have lots of freinds.
Nope. 46% of those who voted (before specials).
Of those enrolled, about 34% voted for the human rights abuse pollution party.
7% swing to the Left. Just pause for a moment to absorb that 😈
7% swing , because finally labour had a leader that people wanted to vote for , does not say much about the labour talent that was presented over the last 9 years does it.
pfffft , 7% swing against a party going for its 4th term, and you crow like its something to be in awe of . Why dont you compare that result to Clarks efforts to get a 4th term when she was up against Key , that would be a more enlightend comparison but one that you find hard to stomach no doubt.
Something to be in awe of?
Certainly got under your skin 😆
Swing to National 2008 = Up 5.8 points
Swing to Labour 2017 = Up 11.1 points
Left Bloc 2008 Down 5.9 points
Right Bloc 2017 Down 6.5 points
hmmm Interesting figures – and those for 2017 just the preliminary.
I see Swordfish has helpfully done the comparison you were frothing impotently over.
In the interests of completeness I think we should also look at Clark and Ardern’s first elections as leader of the opposition.
Labour 1993: 34.68%
Labour 1996: 28.19%
How’s the froth?
“…they have lots of freinds.”
Lots of freinds, huh? Like this one? Charming.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Freind
Brendon , 46% of the country voted for them , that is a lot friends.
NO 36%
mate , dare i ask how you got to 36%, No doubt it will be paragraphs of text, over intellectualising some dullard pov.
National got 998,813 of the counted votes, i.e. the preliminary result.
There were 3,298,009 eligible people enrolled of an estimated total eligible population of 3,569,830.
http://www.elections.org.nz/research-statistics/enrolment-statistics-electorate
The total estimated votes (those counted on election night plus estimated special votes to be counted) is 2,563,740.
http://www.elections.org.nz/news-media/preliminary-results-2017-general-election
You can pick any of those numbers and do your own calculations.
Shit your right Rob
It was only 30.285332756824% Not 36%
I don’t enjoy bursting people’s bubbles but just like blisters, it sometimes is for the better 😉
The other thing to remember is that for those who did not vote – that does not mean that they are happy with the status quo. It could well mean that they saw nothing on offer from any party that stirred them to action. That is not the same as being happy with their lot.
Thanks Incog., was wondering about that 34% figure myself.
Using those links I made it:
NAT share = 30.29% of enrolled; 27.98% of eligible; 38.96% of est. total votes.
Pretty sad when you look at it like that. Hardly “46% of the country”. Pfft, the country indeed.
They have a ‘moral minority’; always have had and always will have.
Rob, (or should I say “Rab”?) you clearly can’t retype my name correctly even when it’s right in front of you (control+c for copy, then control+v for paste if you have trouble processing seven letters), so why should we trust your intellectual analysis?
It’s BrendAn, not BrendOn. Get it right. It’s Irish, not the English bastardisation of it.
Geoff are you a new poster cos I can’t remember reading you before.
the internal machinations of the gnats must be a bit like the lifeboat game. A few are clinging to the sides in the water and as food runs out some are eyeing up others. There is only room for some not all and here comes Winnie and oh know we have to make room for him and his crew. All the straws are short when you are part of the gnats.
If you click on the blue “GEOFF” after by:, you’ll see his previous posts.
Just an infrequent one.
https://thestandard.org.nz/author/geoff/
Yes apologises to Geoff again. Just totally got it wrong and stuffed up.
I certainly will double check from now on.
Thanks – looks like I haven’t been reading as much here as I thought lol. My bad sorry Geoff. Thanks Andre.
This current National leadership and membership has invested so much in a coalition with the Greens that if it fails they should resign.
Sorry just to clarify I don’t think the membership should resign.
I think they (and any children they have) should go out and eat veges from a field that is perfectly OK after having 80,000 litres (or whatever the amount was) of oil magically extracted from it.
There must be a few/many National supporters who now doubt the integrity of English, Joyce and Bennett. I doubt. We doubt and many Nat voters must doubt.
Hooray for a Labour+Green + NZF.
100% ianmac. count me in too.
National are desperate, they thought they had it in the bag on election night, but one week on they’re realising that it’s more likely a LOSS for them, bad hangover for a lot.
Trying to claim the moral ground when the Nats simply don’t have any morals is little more than a joke, the vast majority would like to see the DIVERSE majority of a three way coalition, representation for this group has been absent for ten years now, and the reality is that they now hold the majority, no question of that.
NZF has two choices, as we know, going into a coalition with National would almost certainly end NZF and Peter’s legacy, a coalition of the Labour/ Green block would see NZF maintain and increase support going forward, preserving Peters legacy and making the changes in NZ that are looonnngg overdue.
National, underfunding Health, Education and social services is a looming financial crisis, proven fact that preventative medicine costs half that of reactive medicine over time.
National are now watching their “career dissapation light” deminish inside their eye now, as the reality of MMP sets in.
“old father time” has caught up with them finally.
They couldn’t have got away with their wanton stealing of all our public assets, and the selloff’s forever could they?
Some wrote them off in the campaign and then they came up.with lies 1 and 2.
We have seen what they will stoop too. The negotiations will be no different
I agree, tracey. They’ve shown no sign of having principles in the past, why should we expect anything different.
Were I a desperate Nat – and there is something profoundly and tragically pathetic about all desperate persons – I am not sure that Paula B would have been my first choice for Green-wooing. Paula appears not particularly distinguished by circumspection, thoughtfulness, or respect for others different from her of whom there are millions. Her boisterousness could be frightfully exhausting to have to contend with, as well as a possible obstacle to serious thought on the part of other parties – which may be the point.
Toss in a few of Bill English’s famous spaghetti pizzas, and I’d be inclined to go with the crayfish people, with Ardern’s inherent honesty- yes- honesty – and Kelvin Davis being a good and decent man, and these are the things which some of us earn for in contemporary politics… especially the crayfish…
Lol ! ,… dunno quite what the crayfish thing is about , I’m not that up with all that sophistication being a country type person,… but I do reckon those that get bullied early often go on to bully others when they get in a position to do so.
And being of bush / country stock I don’t need your mansions or your SUV’s or your designer clothes, they are a joke to me. I consider I’m more of a millionaire in heritage than you’ll ever be with all your striving for crumbs from the corporate table.
You don’t need a lot to live in Gods great creation and be a real King. You learn to think that way when you’re brought up in the back country. I’m proud of that heritage.
However I reckon the Nats are made up of many of these so deprived.
Had a ‘ debate ‘ with my father and brother in law,… both being dyed in the wool nat supporters.
Pissed both of them off. In the end both resorted to cliches and … L0L ! … ‘evolution’ and fatalism. It was comical to behold just how quickly both seceded . Spent my early twenties doing many forms of martial arts … settled on Japanese Jujitsu at age 45… and I was damn good because I did ‘ body’ ( physical ) jobs most of my life …
How does this relate?, … well in light of Fonterras CEO ,.. getting 8 million …(obscene) … the argument went along these lines… any business head can extrapolate running ANY business based on basic company principles, esp if adequately briefed, … , and , coupled with the fact that they have other board members and , … and under them … an army of paid worker bees to furnish information with which their only real job brief is to furnish a tick in the box ,…in other words being , … the work is literally done for them.
Its a rort. Its that simple. And ,… totally enabled by the neo liberal ‘winner take all ‘ mentality.
I worked under a guy ( supervisor ) at a painting and decorating company ( and had done the proper training for the qualification and am still in debt today because of it) who , – prior to that was a manager at a liquor outlet.
Yep ,… a bloody ‘ liquor ‘ outlet manager FFS !
That’s right , – no formal training WHATSOEVER regards commercial or residential painting and construction , – and yet was chosen as a ‘ manager’ of a painting / construction company.
Go figure.
This guy , was considered a bully by the workers.
Six foot 3 – 4 in height , as broad as he was tall. A rugby coach for the Waikato teams. Pure arrogance. Here’s me , … 5 foot 8 if that,… but fresh from the hardest black belt farmer bastards from the Waikato you could ever imagine , ( the Sensei was 62 years old and still could drop twenty somethings with ease , he put me in a spinal lock / neck choke just for being flippant , and although I tapped and pleaded I realized he was using me as a demonstration of a technique to others , … but the message was clear, – to take this shit seriously, … I felt nauseous but I knew what he was trying to instill. So I accepted that lesson ) who ,.. because of my interest in the heart of the matter, coupled with European martial arts as a historical interest ,… dispensed with the usual cosmetic crap and taught me straight military killing techniques. The sort the old OSS taught during the second world war. The sort the SAS have built upon today.
Not that I would seriously ever want to do that to anyone, … it was more wanting to learn the truth / about historical combat techniques.
This foreman bully shook hands with me ,… (and ,… because Id heard of his reputation as a bully , was forewarned ) … didn’t like the fact that I held his eye, and didn’t relinquish the handshake. Decidedly vertical ( I’m your equal , bud ) ,… and asked me if I wanted to ‘ wrestle’. I said ‘ sure’, … I wasn’t being ‘servile ‘ enough apparently ,…
Put him in a hammerlock in the middle of the yard in front of all the workers. They were shocked. I wasn’t. I went on to do security after that. I don’t like blowhards, liars, cheats and bully’s. And I took security work seriously.
So how is this extrapolated to neo liberalism?
Easy. This whole ‘ dog eat dog ‘ shit ,… is usually comprised of ‘ male think ‘ ,… not always , … but usually ,… and if you look really close , you’ll often see the bully boy , but you’ll often see something else : the coward.
Those timid types , … who as adults , … gain a position of power , of advantage , … and like to exercise that advantage over others. Its like all the child hood abuses they ever suffered are replayed in their minds in a sick , convoluted replay of every slight and feeling of personal inadequacy which becomes converted into a belated adult form of revenge that has now been enabled by a totally unregulated ‘ free market ‘ that puts ‘working people’ at their ‘mercy ‘.
Their ‘ charity ‘ .
Their ‘ dispensationalism ‘ towards all good servile ‘ stewards’ ( read peasants ) from upon lofty heights , as it were ….
When in reality it is nothing more than the base exercise of their avarice and greed and the exploitation of others in a sick outworking of their insecurity’s …
Believe me ,… the working ‘ body’ type jobs are full of them. Them and their bullshit, piss weak machismo crap .
And it just goes to show the fallacy of these CEO’s claims and their bullshitting on about ‘ market forces’. And how they try to con people into that sort of spurious self evident rort.
And this is the sort of desperation that fills the donator’s and the backers and the supporters and the hangers on of the National party ranks ,… not all , – but a very significant percentage. Cowardly , conservative , timid , overly cautious and insipidly thinking of their own morbid mortality and how they will survive when they are old and grey and retired … pathetic .
My advice is to not fear these cowardly fuckers.
Expose them always as the gutless pathetic self centered greedy narcissistic wimps that they are, devoid of values , – barring what serves them and them only even to the detriment of others , devoid of loyalty barring what furthers their own ends, pathetic creatures who long ago made the decision to sell out all human virtue for their own self advancement,…
These are the contemptuous neo liberals , … the far right wingers , the sycophants , the cowards and the timid. Never be afraid of them. Put them to flight , make them run, make them wail and cry. Expose them for what they are. Give them no mercy or indulgence as they surely gave none to others.
They deserve nothing but condescension from the incoming Left wing govt. Either this election or the next.
I like this sort of thing :
Priceless.
Aussiest. Interview. Ever. What a legend! – YouTube
Video for aussiest interview ever▶ 2:13
National are understandably desperate to cling to power and Id suggest not only for powers sake and the baubles of office…..theres 9 years worth of dodgy dealings buried for the opposition to uncover should they gain the resources of office…..christchurch quake response and pike river are 2 that spring to mind……suspect there a quite a few that would be very happy for more time to pass before that happened
Yes, if things go well, there’s a right little archaeological dig in the offing!
Hey Wild Katipo – not condescension, that’s squandering energy and spirit, and they’re not worth it, they are nothings, and whether or not they know that, doesn’t really warrant wasting time on either. Cockroaches take care of themselves.
Crayfish are from younger days in Kaikoura; we set our own pots, and waded out knee deep to prise paua from the rocks.The crayfish factory out past the wharf exported only the tails, and they gave away or tossed out the carcasses back then.Long ago.
Post-election a NZ Firster arrived in Wellington with two boxes of crayfish, and while I certainly wouldn’t go as far as comparing him to miracles with loaves and fishes, it had a panache lacking in spaghetti pizza, would have tasted glorious, was real people stuff.
Greens would gain more under nats. Labour shit on them everytime
Simple as that. Won’t happen so nothing to worry about.
It’s only the media talking about this btw
Infused = confused
Get a brain idiot troll.