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Nats fought a FPP campaign and blew it – Labour went with MMP…

Written By: - Date published: 7:56 am, September 30th, 2017 - 88 comments
Categories: election 2017, labour, national - Tags: , , , ,

You know that old saying about how generals always prepare to fight the last war? That’s National and their FPP election campaign.

You can see it in their tactics. How they treated their coalition partners. How they attacked Peters and NZF at every opportunity, leaking his super details, urging voters to “cut out the middle man”. How they gambled on driving NZF below 5% and benefiting from the wasted vote. The goal was always to govern alone.

You can see it in their advertising, the creepy blue joggers refusing to help anyone.

You can see it in their reaction on election night, in their FPP minds they won! Paula Bennett:

“On Saturday night I was on the euphoria of 58 seats and here we go – but now we’ve got some work to do… it could go any way. Until you’ve had those conversations you can’t pick it.”

It isn’t 58 seats (count the votes). And your seats aren’t enough (you need 61). It is only after the election that the reality is dawning. You fought a FPP campaign and you didn’t make the post.

Contrast with Labour. They acknowledged and worked with the Greens in a formal memorandum of understanding (finally!). They presented the public with a clear choice between left and right blocks. They didn’t attack or insult Winston Peters and the block of Kiwi voters that he represents. They ran a positive, aspirational, inclusive campaign.

So here we are with the democratic process of counting the votes in progress, and the MMP process of coalition formation still to come. It has slowly dawned on the Nats and the bombastic right wing journalists that they haven’t won after all. There will be a certain poetic justice played out if Labour’s MMP campaign is the winner in the end.

88 comments on “Nats fought a FPP campaign and blew it – Labour went with MMP…”

  1. BM 1

    The problem with this election was that the media made it all about Jacinda Ardern and turned it into a contest between National and her, no other party ever got mentioned.

    It was Ardern this, Ardern that, in a way, they probably sunk Labour a bit because people were getting sick of the sycophantic brown nosing by the end.

    The media really let down the country at this years election, Winston Peters rightfully gave them a real serve about how they covered the election in a recent stand up.

    • tracey 1.1

      Wake up BM. No wonder you voted for National despite them lying to you, again. You now lie to yourself.

      A pro Labour media would have investigated Joyce and Englishs 11b hole lie before rushing to publish, same with making up taxes that Labour had no policy to implement. They didnt. And on that turned an election.

      Still, feel reassured, Bennett is continuing the lies, only yesterday, or self delusion if you prefer, to help you feel comfy for a while longer.

      Dont you fibd it odd that a party ( yes party cos the membership runs the Greens) that risked a drop in polls to highlight poverty, would respect Bennett, for anything? And her climate change claim was almost as risible.

      Anyway we wont know for a few weeks so stop torturting yourself

      • garibaldi 1.1.1

        You are correct in that the media are pathetic BM, but that’s because they are just a bunch of toadies for their right wing business owners. This is the model you right wingers want and you have gone out of your way to destroy any narrative that doesn’t support your market driven shallow click baits. Objective, thorough journalism is almost extinct because of wall to wall crap on all commercial outlets.

        • BM 1.1.1.1

          Lies, you possum peppering, drug smoking, morris dancing hippy wanker.

          Good o’l stereotypes, it certainly makes thinking so much easier

          • tracey 1.1.1.1.1

            Seriously tho BM if the media were fixated and a lil left biased it does not explain Seymour and ACT affilated columnists getting far more media election coverage than Maori Party who had twice as many MPs and higher party vote share.

            • BM 1.1.1.1.1.1

              Did they? every time I went and looked at the Herald or stuff all I saw was an article about how lovely Jacinda Ardern is and a big smiley picture of her.

              Btw I don’t watch scheduled TV or listen to radio live/news talk zb.

              • tracey

                You missed Prebbles articles tho?

                And yes Seymour and ACT supporters got far disproportionate coverage to Maori Party.

                Did you not notice the media fixation with the image of john key? What a popukar guy he was… kissing babies… playing golf… planking… poolside with his son and all the other fluffy irrelevant stuff?

                We are poorly served all round by the very outlets you look at it is just it wasnt your guy smiling back at you as usual… but english was there… and his and joyces lies got mega coverage otherwise we woukd have a labour/green govt since last saturday night.

                • BM

                  I also remember the endless GSCB carry on, the TPPA hysteria, the selling NZ off bollocks, the rather one-sided dirty politics accusations, trying to link him to the mossack fonseca stuff.

                  Sure, he got some fluff pieces, but there was a serious effort going on in certain sectors of the media to try and bring him down.

                  • BM

                    Plus ponytail gate, Beckhams thick as batshit comment, the colonial clod when he got invited by the Queen, getting shat upon for going to his son’s baseball game endlessly been accused of being a puppet for the US Government, the 5 eyes stuff, the bullshit with the flag debate. etc etc.

                    Compare that to Helen Clark.

                    • tracey

                      Truly mate you are seeing what you want to see. The attacks on Clark were constant and devious from her sexuality to her husband’s… through the likes of whaleoil and others. By the campaign 2008 ordinary anti Labour folk I knew were calling were her Alan Clark in my presence

                  • tracey

                    Can you support the serious attempt to bring him down comment? As for the Panama papers about which Key repeatedly said “nothing to see here” and NZ is not a tax haven… note that since the law change asking for real name and address 2/3 are no longer interested in having trusts here… suggest 2/3 or 66.6% were using us as a tax haven.

                  • KJT

                    All accurate.
                    Even the right wing biased media, found it hard to ignore.

              • Pete

                In other words it wasn’t just the media which were fixated?

          • reason 1.1.1.1.2

            Drink Nationals Shitty contaminated river water BM …. experience real life garbage in garbage out

            Garbage governance ….. growth through degradation

            I can smell the lignite on your breath 😉

    • The problem with this election was that the media made it all about Jacinda Ardern and turned it into a contest between National and her, no other party ever got mentioned.

      Isn’t that what they did with John Key? Don’t seem to recall you complaining about it then.

      The media really let down the country at this years election

      The MSM let down the country every time they report lies as truth. In other words, every time that they report on what National says.

      • tracey 1.2.1

        Exactly. Our mainstream media are an embarrassment on all counts.

        • Ed 1.2.1.1

          Reform of the media should be a priority for any progressive government.
          Education and enlightenment is important as opposed to the corporate propaganda we are exposed to.

    • Kevin 1.3

      Made a change from them fawning over John Key.

    • Baba Yaga 1.4

      The media also anticipated a ‘youth quake’. It never occurred. They made the same mistake they did in 2014 with Dotcom…crowds of starstruck teenagers does not translate into votes.

      The sad thing in all of this is Labour appalling leadership. I voted Labour for part of the Clark years, when the party was run with the sheer political brilliance of Clark and Heather Simpson. Key followed with his ruthless team that easily saw off Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe and Little. Ardern looked good for her 5 minutes of fame, and then crashed. I think she’s genuinely smart, and sincerely wants to make a difference, but my view is she would be eaten alive in a coalition with Peters.

      • One Anonymous Bloke 1.4.1

        In fact, you have no more idea of the demographics of the people who enrolled and voted on the same day than I do.

        We’ll have more information in a week or so.

        …and once again, your “contribution” is National Party talking points. Do you have any original thoughts to share?

        • Baba Yaga 1.4.1.1

          We know the youth quake I’m referring to didn’t occur, because the media anticipated it delivering a victory in the popular vote to Labour + Greens. It didn’t.

          If you have any evidence that I plagiarised my opinions, post it.

          • One Anonymous Bloke 1.4.1.1.1

            On votes counted so far, there has been a ~7% swing to the Left. Go count the votes for right and left-wing parties in 2014 if you doubt it.

            I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that you characterise that as a “crash”.

            • Baba Yaga 1.4.1.1.1.1

              The 7% swing is a fallacy, unless you seriously think that Peters is on the left of politics. If you do, I have a bridge to sell you.

              And yes, Ardern ‘crashed’. At one stage Labour were polling as high as 45% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2017). On the night they pulled just under 36%. Her naiveté and flip flop on tax policy was just one reason. The rat cunning of Joyce and Ardern’s failure to deal with the ‘dead cat on the table’ was another.

              • One Anonymous Bloke

                No, you simply didn’t bother checking the facts, you lazy person. Next time take the advice you’re given.

                Swordfish posted this a week ago.

                Lab+Green

                2014 (Election Night)
                34.7%

                2017 (Election Night)
                41.7%
                Up 7 points

                .

                Right Bloc (Govt Parties + Cons)

                2014 (Election Night)
                54.4%

                2017 (Election Night)
                47.9%
                Down 6.5 points

                QED.

                Edit: I see you are trying to make a narrative out of the most volatile poll results in NZ history. Desperate.

                • lurgee

                  In fairness, a couple of weeks before the election there were lots of people making a narrative out of those poll results, hereabouts.

                  With regards the right’left swing, my hunch is that there was a large swing from NZ 1st to Labour, and some compensatory movement from National and the old Conservative vote to NZ 1st.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    Depends how many “swing” voters can abide NZF.

                  • Baba Yaga

                    You could be right. In my view National’s election night support surprised everyone, including National themselves. I suspect that has given Winston Peters something more to mull over as well.

                • Baba Yaga

                  My comment was not about comparing two elections. Here, I will repost:

                  “We know the youth quake I’m referring to didn’t occur, because the media anticipated it delivering a victory in the popular vote to Labour + Greens. It didn’t.”

                  Your response didn’t address that at all.

                  “Swordfish posted this a week ago.”
                  Yes, and he got it wrong.

                  • lprent

                    You are a complete innumerate. Consider these basic facts which should have been obvious to even fools reading the media.

                    1. The number of special votes is 381 thousand. Approximately 15% of the total votes cast.
                    2. This was a a considerable increase on last time.
                    3. The most common reason for people to cast specials is because they are young and transient – especially students.
                    4. The ‘youthquake’ meme, if it occurred, only happened in the last week of the election.
                    5. In the past the specials at a countrywide level have favoured the Greens, then Labour.

                    So even illiterate loudmouth fools like yourself, rather than picking their ideas out of their arse, should instead wait until the 7th of October for some actual numbers released from the Electoral Omission. These stats include all of the votes, and break the vote down by demographics. It should be easy to see if there was any kind of ‘youthquake’.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      You seem confused about the expression ‘youthquake’.

                      Youthquake refers to the quantum of votes, and an anticipation that this will increase substantially as a result, at least in part, of the ‘Ardern effect’.

                      You have chosen to focus on WHO people voted for, not on how many voted.

                      According to the electoral commission, voter turnout in 2017 was 78.8%, in 2014 it was 77.9% (http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=256208).

                      The voter turnout in 2014 was 74.21%, so the increase in 2017 was minimal.

                      Here, Bryce Edwards can help you to better understand:

                      “In the initial stages of the election campaign, the Electoral Commission reported a surge of youth voter enrolments, which gave greater weight to the idea of a coming youthquake. Subsequently, however, enrolment numbers have slowed down considerably amongst the young. As of today, the total enrolments of 18-24 year-olds stands at 314,702, out of an estimated eligible population of 460,890, which means that only 68 per cent of this age group has enrolled. This is actually less than this time three years ago..”
                      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11924009

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      @Baby Gaga. Pay attention to your own links, fool,

                      “we might be seeing a youthquake in the order of a 5 point lift”

                    • Baba Yaga

                      “Which makes a 7% lift in the Labour + Green vote, comparing preliminary results.”

                      Which is NOT a swing to the left, BECAUSE you are counting non-right wing parties in the Nat + Act vote count. AND you are omitting other left wing parties.

                      Seriously I’ve been patient. Now you’re just looking like a fool.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      “we might be seeing a youthquake in the order of a 5 point lift”
                      I didn’t say that at any point, so again, you are lying. Bryce Edwards post specifically talked about the youth quake in the context of enrolment NUMBERS. LPrent simply got it wrong.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      In your link, Bryce Edwards quotes Gwynn Compton as saying: “we might be seeing a youthquake in the order of a 5 point lift”.

                      Not my problem that you can’t read your own sources.

                      Edit: take it up with Swordfish: they’re credible and you can’t read your own sources.

                    • McFlock

                      It’s always funny when a stupid tory takes ages to figure out that their own links don’t support their warping of reality.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      “In your link, Bryce Edwards quotes Gwynn Compton as saying: “we might be seeing a youthquake in the order of a 5 point lift”.”

                      Yes, that’s what he is predicting the RESULT of the youthquake might be. But the youthquake itself is very clear from the article.

                      “…a surge of youth voter enrolments, which gave greater weight to the idea of a coming youthquake.”

                      They were wrong. Very wrong. As are you.

                    • lprent

                      Yeah, it looks like the numbskull hasn’t figured out that they are comparing two different sets of figures. The election night count in 2017 compared to the final count after specials in 2014.

                      The enrolments done after the roll closed will be in the uncounted special vote.

                      Characteristically for the usual tory, the dimwit appeals to “authority”. It enables the intellectual laziness that seems to characterise the lower bounds of the tory mindset. Rather than going and reading the clear descriptions about timing at the electoral commission site and then using their brain, they will go to great lengths to build a stupid and incorrect myth.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      “Yeah, it looks like the numbskull hasn’t figured out that they are comparing two different sets of figures. ”

                      No, I know the figures being compared, and I have addressed both presentations. But you are missing the point, which was the claims of a left/right ‘swing’. These claims are meaningless when the claims rely on a false composition of the ‘right’. They are even more meaningless using preliminary figures, yet you seem to support that. Strange.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      they were very wrong

                      As Lprent points out, the special votes have not been counted. We’ll know more about the demographics of the election when they have been.

                      Still, Labour plus Greens up by 7% eh. Have a nice tanty.

                  • One Anonymous Bloke

                    he got it wrong

                    I doubt it, so I checked the preliminary results of the 2014 election and Swordfish’s sums add up.

                    So either you’re innumerate or you’re looking at some other set of figures.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      He’s wrong, because to get to his numbers for the ‘right’ he has to include NZF. In the lead up to the election some posters here were including NZF in the left. NZF are neither right nor left.

                      Lies, damn lies and statistics.

                      In fact if you must insist on this left/right divide, the only viable definition of the supposed ‘right’ in 2014 as National + Act. Together they received 47.73% of the vote. As of current counting, the same pairing in 2017 has 46.72%. The 7% is untrue because it falsely groups the players in the left/right paradigm.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Do the sums you fuckwit.

                      NZF are not included in the “Right bloc” in S/F’s comment.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      Here are the sums:

                      2014
                      Nat 47.04
                      Lab 25.13
                      Gre 10.7
                      NZF 8.66
                      Act 0.69
                      Mao 1.32
                      UF 0.22
                      Tot93.76

                      2017
                      Nat 46.03
                      Lab 35.79
                      Gre 5.85
                      NZF 7.51
                      Act 0.51
                      Mao 1.08
                      UF 0.07
                      Tot96.84

                      The right:
                      National + Act
                      2014 = 47.73%
                      2017 = 46.54%

                      The left:
                      Labour + Greens
                      2014 = 35.83
                      2017 = 41.64

                      The rest on the list:
                      2014 = 10.20%
                      2017 = 8.66%

                      You’re simply wrong.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      S/F includes the other government parties and the Conservatives. Good luck pretending they aren’t on the Right.

                      Either way, Labour + Greens gained 7% on preliminary results, National has no mates, and didn’t even pick up Creepy Colin’s 4%.

                      I understand why that upsets you, so I’ll probably carry on pointing it out.

                      Edit: I note that as well as ignoring your mate Creepy Colin, you are comparing the final 2014 result with the preliminary 2017 result. S/F compares apples with apples.

                      Keep flailing.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      “S/F includes the other government parties…”
                      Which is his first mistake. The Maori Party spoke openly before the election about working with Labour. And Peter Dunne has done precisely that in the past.

                      “Either way, Labour + Greens gained 7% on preliminary results…”
                      No, they picked up 5.81%. You simply don’t understand the numbers, and you’ve deliberately distorted the left/right components to cover up.

                      Edit
                      “you are comparing the final 2014 result with the preliminary 2017 result”

                      There’s very little difference. Here are the 2014 preliminaries from your source:

                      National 48.06
                      Labour 24.69
                      Greens 10.02
                      NZF 8.85
                      Act 0.69
                      Maori 1.29
                      UF 0.22

                      It still doesn’t get away from the fact that you have misstated the placing of the government support parties.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      Preliminary election results 2014. As per the link above at 2:35pm :

                      Labour Party 24.69%

                      Green Party 10.02%

                      Total 34.71%, just as Swordfish said. Which makes a 7% lift in the Labour + Green vote, comparing preliminary results.

                      When we know the final results for 2017, we can do those sums too, Maninthemiddle. And you’re still trying to forget about your mate Creepy.

                    • Baba Yaga

                      “Total 34.71%, just as Swordfish said. Which makes a 7% lift in the Labour + Green vote, comparing preliminary results.”

                      That is a lift in votes for Lab + Greens. That is not the same thing as a ‘swing to the left’.

                    • One Anonymous Bloke

                      The support for the govt. parties plus Creepy Colin went down by 6.5%, comparing preliminary results.

                      Spin it however you like: the numbers tell the story.

              • Drowsy M. Kram

                Not “the rat cunning of Joyce”, the LYING of Joyce – rats don’t lie.

                Why would any politician, even a National politician, trust the ‘word’ of Joyce/English/Bennett/Collins et al.? National’s verified record of intensive lying is not the most promising starting point for potential coalition maneuvering.

                • Baba Yaga

                  No, it’s rat cunning. Heather Simpson had it in spades. Remember her?

                  • Drowsy M. Kram

                    If you want to include non-elected party staff, I’ll see your Simpson, and raise you an Ede.

                    “Jason Ede resigns from the National Party after Dirty Politics scandal.” [NZ Herald, 22 Sept 2014]

                    The question, much in Winston’s mind, remains: “Why would any politician, even a National politician, trust the ‘word’ of Joyce/English/Bennett/Collins et al.?”

                    • Baba Yaga

                      Oh I’d take Simpson over Ede any time.

                      And as for ‘trust’, I don’t ‘trust’ any of them.

  2. tracey 2

    And only yesterday Bennett, with premeditation lied (or misrepresented for our Nat friends who prefer to avoid the word “lie”), about her relationship with the Greens.

    The manipulation continues. The lies are strong in them.

    • It’s entirely possible that she does get on well with them on a personal level. If she does then she’s happens to be mistaking that personal relationship with the non-existent relationship between National and The Greens.

      She probably doesn’t realise that it’s possible to ‘get on well’ with people you don’t like as well.

    • Graeme 2.2

      I’m confused as to who they are lying to.

      Is it to NZ First and Green Party to try and cobble together a government after insulting, and trying everything to destroy those parties through the campaign.

      Or is it to their members, caucus, voters and donors to try and justify the strategic frailty of the National campaign. Interesting that their Campaign Manager and Eagleson both resigned immediately.

      I suspect this Green / Blue coalition thing is a dead cat to take discussion away from a failed campaign strategy and the possible recrimination within National.

      • tracey 2.2.1

        They are lying to their base to make it seem they are reasonable and you just cant deal with unreasonable people like the Greens, some of the business community who want a quicker final outcome than they will get and of course cos it is second nature

  3. ianmac 3

    That bitter twisted John Roughan is a piece of work isn’t he ? When his team loses it is because the rules were wrong, the ref cheated, the crowd were biased and surely they should cancel the score and hand him the trophy.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11927788

    • Yeah, pretty much and we’re going to see a lot more similar tripe as National tries to undermine the democratic process that didn’t return them to power.

    • tracey 3.2

      Shhhh dont tell BM he is convinced it is a pro Labour article by the com0licit leftie press.

    • Bearded Git 3.3

      “I don’t remember whether he had the balance of power that night”

      What a stupid thing to say. It became clear by about 11 pm that Winston had the balance of power after Labour/Green clawed back the gap between them and the Nats. (The likely result after specials is Nats 56 seats Lab/Gr 54)

      Did Roughan go to bed at 10pm? Or was he not paying attention like he patronisingly claims of the oldies in the article (as though they have no right to vote).

      Maybe those oldies were paying better attention than him-certainly those oldies understand MMP better than he does.

    • patricia bremner 3.4

      3. John Roughan, Duncan Garner, Armstrong and others are all running a “blame” campaign.

      They are wanting voters to believe they have been “robbed by Winston/MMP of their rightful government.

      Like all poor losers, they blame others/the system, anyone but their own poor FPP strategy so obvious in their adverts and loss of coalition partners.

      Now they want us to believe they could work with the Greens … “but they won’t”

      Sad Sad, but deviously dangerous.

  4. AHAHAHAHAHAAAAA !!!!

    … ” It has slowly dawned on the Nats and the bombastic right wing journalists that they haven’t won after all. There will be a certain poetic justice played out if Labour’s MMP campaign is the winner in the end ” …

    Just bloody lovin it !!!

    Hearing all the gripes about a ‘ moral right ‘ to govern just because their party got the most votes, – means jack shit under MMP.

    Then there’s the clamour to try and normalise a coalition with the Greens.

    Pigs are flying by in herds in the sky as well !!!

    After all these aresholes have done to the NZ public with their lies, Dirty Politics , setting others others up like they did Peters, using their media freaks to attack Metiria with the motive to collapse the Greens, … well ,… it didn’t bloody work , did it now. And so now we get synchophants like Fran OSullivan doing write ups in the Herald about a Green / National coalition.

    L0L0L0L0L !!!!

    And this from Sweetie the motel lady :

    “On Saturday night I was on the euphoria of 58 seats and here we go – but now we’ve got some work to do… it could go any way. Until you’ve had those conversations you can’t pick it.”

    L0L0L0L !!!!

    What planet did she just fall from the sky out of ?

    Planet Key ??!!??

    • patricia bremner 4.1

      4. Wild Katipo I do hope you are right and MMP comes out the winner. LNZFG

      I think until the 7th when the weight of voting is clearer, and negotiations get underway, I think a number of us fear the power of their money.

      I have a bottle of bubbly for the 12th (I’m an optimist)

      • WILD KATIPO 4.1.1

        Well dont you go worrying , … because even if a Nat / NZ First coalition happens the damage done to the Nats is terminal.

        They will be expending so much energy countering NZ First / Peters antagonism towards hard core neo liberalism that itll be a 3 year wonder.

        Don’t go worrying about the pride aspect – that’s Nationals concern, and while I’d like to see damage done to National this time round, and Lord knows the poor, the working poor , the beneficiaries need relief NOW ,… as with so many other issues itd fill a book ,… rest assured , we are on the winning side of history.

        You cannot , … keep treating people the way the Nats have been doing without consequences…

        Otherwise, …

        The Bastille would never have happened.

        So tarry ,… for just a short while longer.

    • RC 4.2

      Nat supporters have gone completely off the wall you can’t talk reason with any of them. I’m a firm believer that politicians are a reflection of their voters so i would imagine the same thing is happening inside the national party. lol.

  5. Bearded Git 5

    Good post Anthony-the MSM should have been saying this.

    As well as “cut out the middle man” it was “drag race”-I lost track of how many times i heard and read this. It is an image that says 2 parties only are in the race.

    The “middle-man” concept is insulting to the Greens, MP, TOP etc. Somewhat ironically it conveys the idea that National is the only party with good ideas- where in fact we have had a market-obsessed do-nothing devious and corrupt government for 9 years.

  6. ianmac 6

    The Nat’s shrill complaint directed at NZF shows somehow they think that Winston is alone on the mountain. They could describe it as NZF-Labour-Greens because to say that it is NZF alone is slightly mynoptic. Surely they aren’t all so blind? Are they?
    In coming weeks it should read as “the Labour lead Government is acting to progress their aims for everyone.” And not “Winston Peters says…”

    By the way one of the writers is supposing that there will be a blind auction. That is that National and Labour will have to table their best offers up front. Aha!

  7. Keith 7

    Some honesty is required for Labour after the final numbers are known because their campaign only ran on Jacinda, other than that it was awful. I have read too many pieces as of late praising the half-arsed job Labour did. Do that again and its National forever.

    Number 1, they need a new strategy manager, right now and someone who knows what they are doing. Auckland was a failure and yet Labour knew it was important. What happened? Why has New Lynn, in essence, become marginal and Te Atatu for that matter and why could they not secure the party vote? These are not flash leafy suburbs rolling in money in places! What the hell happened? How did Hutt South become National?

    Evidence of the blind leading the blind strategy was the plight of Andrew Little. He had struggled in the polls for his entire tenure but this was swept under the carpet by Labours strategists leading right up to the campaign proper when it was Little himself who pulled the pin and saw the obvious writing on the obvious wall. Queue the last second hospital pass to Jacinda.

    The tax thing was a debacle. I may be wrong but no one but no one argued why we need tax. Who mentioned out loud that Middlemore Hospital had to put up the “No Vacancies” sign because of years of underfunding? Who exploited what John Campbell’s team had uncovered, that Dunedin Hospitals funding was so woefully short that elective and life-saving surgery was only twice monthly or thereabouts?
    Who told the public that part of the reason crime was up was the cuts to police budgets aligned with cuts to welfare, linking that on to housing. There was NO argument for tax let alone arguing against why tax cuts are so stupid.

    Labour ran a positive and very polite campaign, all very Aunt like and very stiff upper lip. But for 9 years they have failed to see that the only way to beat polished liars like National is to be combative.

    Leaving it to the media to give the voting public anecdotal information on what is wrong and why National need to be removed was and is bloody hopeless.

    • ianmac 7.1

      Keith by your reckoning Labour should have lied and cheated and emulated National’s Dirty Tricks. I am glad that they didn’t.
      Next election lets copy National all lie and cheat and play Dirty Tricks. Just means that the National will have to go further and further into the dark lands. I hope not.

      Who would ever trust English or Joyce or Bennett again? I won’t!

      • Keith 7.1.1

        Who said lie? The Nats got 46% for their 4th time around and that should never have happened with the ammunition Labour had at their disposal.

        SImply front the public with the ugly truth, which they did not. Remind voters your health system is dysfunctional. I mean a hospital at full is about as in your face as you can get for underfunding, surely?

        And why go all shy on tax? Is there something shameful about it?

        Unicorns and rainbows strategy is fine to a point but just being positive lets National off the hook and as an opposition with that attitude, Labour have been Nationals best buddy!

        And as for trust, Nationals voters go back again and again even though they must surely know how dishonest National is! ANd who trusted Joyce or Bennett anyway?

        • patricia bremner 7.1.1.1

          7.1.1 Keith, those living in the leafy suburbs feel cushioned by the capital gain of their properties, and have insurance and health care and feel they are not part of the crowded hospitals roads or rentals.

          They believe any other government will mean higher taxes, falling house prices and more beneficiaries. These “facts” have been repeated by media et al, to the point people are in denial.

          Talk about homeless people, they don’t know any.

          Talk about unemployed, that isn’t their crowd.

          Talk about buying homes, and yes they have assisted their family to get on the ladder.

          Ask about the lies, the response , “they all do it”

          Media play this up along with pieces which keep the game going.

          The failure to get 61 seats has caused them to face negotiations. So now the cry is “we have been robbed by MMP./Winston or both/ The Greens should help.” FFP lost MMP won but they will never admit that!!

          • WILD KATIPO 7.1.1.1.1

            Yeah they will squawk and whine and bitch and wail until they get the dummy put back in their mouth , but rest assured that surrogate tit is just a temporary measure until they learn to grow up.

            Too much sugar rots the teeth and gives you diabetes , bad teeth and a whole lot more other shit that aint nice.

            Children need to grow up and stop living on milk and learn to eat their vegetables and some meat.

            And this forcing these immature’s to learn what MMP is all about , and weaning them off their fixation with FPP is just the beginning.

            And another thing, – we have a new generation who wont tolerate that old obsolete order. Nor will they tolerate exclusive politics. These ‘ immature’s’ will find themselves more and more isolated and in a diminishing camp as the years pass, … this election is a beginning watershed and reality check for the ‘comfortable’s’ … either forcing the reality of the way changes are going to happen or get left behind.

            FPP , Roger Douglas , Ruth Richardson , neo liberal free markets that benefit the few are all now well in the past , a new generation has arisen, … and they will not be entertaining ideology’s that are akin to getting hit on the head with a hammer and then saying ‘ that was good, – could we get hit on the head again , please ? ‘…

            Its just this current power holding generations infatuations with unrealistic unworkable and discredited ideology’s that we have to wade through.

            I am 54 and even I can see the times they are a changin’ , … and I’m looking into the future ,… I’m looking at this new generation coming through ,… I can see a yearning for fairness becoming more and more vocal and strident. And its a good and healthy thing, … its the pressure valve release on drifting into dangerous uncharted territory which is un-befitting for this country of former egalitarian values.

            Liberté, égalité, fraternité !!!!!!!!

      • cleangreen 7.1.2

        1000% ianmac,

        I do clearly see now that National will be a “liabilty” to any party that has flirted with going into coalition with.

        As mud sticks to a blanket for instance, so it will to anyone coming in contact with them..

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 7.2

      Good comments Keith. And I agree that loudly and clearly pointing out the very obvious failings of the Nats, is not at all the same thing as lying and dirty politics. The Nats have such an awful track record on so many fronts, they could be taken to task and kept on the ropes, without a single lie being spoken.

      “The tax thing was a debacle. I may be wrong but no one but no one argued why we need tax. ”

      100% agree. Labour seems very scared to discuss this with the public in any detail. The need to make tax much more progressive was also kept very quiet.

      • Craig H 7.2.1

        Andrew Little spent most of 3 years calling out the government for their poor record, and all he had to show for it was collapsing polls and the (totally unfair) Angry Andy nickname. Jacinda was absolutely correct to go with a positive campaign.

        • Keith 7.2.1.1

          He started out that way, then faded, then had a media/image makeover complete, it appears, with media minders.

          Whatever he was naturally was replaced with something wooden and robotic.

          Positive only gets you so far, but then why is it National had to go?

        • UncookedSelachimorpha 7.2.1.2

          It is a fine balance I suppose. I liked Corbyn’s approach – absolute avoidance of personal attacks, but consistent questioning and calling out on the real issues and problems. But it got him nowhere for a long time, due to slurs from his opponents and media attacks and bias against him.

  8. Chris 8

    Labour played a FPP campaign, too. A greater take of the total vote suggests a strategic use of MMP may’ve made a difference. Setting out to annihilate potential partners doesn’t help, either. They’ll never learn.

    • McFlock 8.1

      Who needs “potential”?
      If Maori Party got back in, we could well be looking at a nat government right now.

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