He’s had over a year and still shows no sign of having any new ideas on tax – he tries to avoid all detail and when pressed it comes out as same old national – lower tax on the wealthy, pay for it by cutting the social wage.
That’s a pretty crappy strategy. It means you think your ideas are so flimsy that much time out in the open and they’ll be ripped apart.
But it is the new strategy. ‘small-target’ they call it, you know you’ll be shot to pieces if you say anything of substance so jettison most of your policies (flip flop and adopt the Left’s) and refuse to give anything of substnace on what little remains.
Of course, it depends on the media letting you get away with it.
We’ll see I suppose…I really don’t see them withstanding the journalists for that long, when they’ve already started on it (see campbell, Paul Henry and I think Plunket)
edit: on TAX that is. Surely there will be more policy announcements as the year goes by.
I think it’s a wise strategy in the current climate of anti-Clark anti-Cullen sentiment. Key and National don’t have to be anything at this point: all they have to do is not be the status quo.
The government’s strategy should be to attack them on these grounds with a view to flushing policy out into the open. I do hope for their sakes that Key and English and co. are doing plenty of work behind the scenes, because playing this strategy means that when you come out with policy, it had better be damned good policy.
The latest RM poll makes poor reading for labour also.
49 – 35 which is status quo for that poll. No traction at all after Mickey C threw the kitchen sink at the budget…
Mike: From http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4295/ – “This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 912 electors between May 5-18, 2008.”
We’ll have to wait until the next poll to see how the budget changed matters.
As it happens things don’t look too bad for the government. With the Maori Party, Greens and Progressive they’re within striking distance. That’s MMP for ya.
yes you are right Lew – the radio Live news implied it was after the budget but obviously not. Still I doubt Labour will get a sustainable lift all the same.
Steve: A much deeper question, which I think I’ve already answered in another thread. I don’t like it and I don’t think it promotes political openness, but I’m not sure I’d call it immoral. It’s hard to say whether I’d support a party whose policy (as much as I could figure it out) I agreed with if they played this strategy – on the one hand it’s smart play, and smart actors tend to achieve more than dogmatic actors. On the other, it seems like poor form to reward behavior whcih could be used for such potentially cynical purposes.
That said, it’s the nature of the game. Do you want your side to win, or do you want it to lose nobly?
“We’re still working on a tax policy” was fine. “We do have a policy but we’re not telling you yet” is not.
But John Key’s natural instinct is to tell people good news. He talks about “north of $50” because that’s what people want to hear. He talks about bigger and better tax cuts. It’s no longer a vague aspiration, it’s now a concrete promise. He can’t stop himself.
The point is: the more he does this, the more it sounds as though National DO have a policy, and they’re just not telling us. The public don’t like that.
The more Key talks about tax cuts, the more he invites further questioning, and he can’t/won’t answer the inevitable questions. What’s more, as an inexperienced politician, he’s liable to give different answers (he gave several last week), which then become National policy, in the public mind. And so it continues, with Key looking more and more evasive and confused.
Watch National switch to different topics this week. They have lost the advantage on this one now.
Mike, if you think the public/media are going to spend the next 4 to 5 months saying “OK, no problem, tell us later, whenever you’re ready John”, every time Key talks about tax cuts, then you’re sadly mistaken.
Politics 101: don’t reinforce negative perceptions. “Slippery” is one, and Key is reinforcing it.
Mike: what exactly is a meaningful cut? Key has attempted to put a number on it, and currently the most an interviewer has got out of him is ‘north of fifty dollars’.
However, I believe the polls will continue in Nationals favour, Labour budget aside, until something concrete is announced. At that point I’m really not sure what will happen, as it probably depends on how well the policy is dressed.
Almost any person answering a poll at the moment will not pick Labours guaranteed $16/week (or whatever it may be for them) over Nationals pledged $50. Once the detail is out, that might change.
gobsmacked: “Mike, if you think National are now setting the agenda you must have spent the last week in a cave.”
You’re dead wrong about this. The agenda has already been set: it’s tax cuts, cutting waste, parity with Australia, and a change. Everything in the government’s recent policy, including the budget, is a response to this.
“Politics 101: don’t reinforce negative perceptions. “Slippery’ is one, and Key is reinforcing it.”
As long as he sees the tipping point and moves before it, this probably won’t harm him – presuming he has enough `wow’ policies to justify the wait. It’s risky but not stupid as you claim.
Given that National’s (official) platform is very different from their last one, I’d suggest the agenda has been absolutely set by Labour (and partly, Winston).
“North of fifty dollars” really depends on what way you think is up. Based on his current performance of flopping everywhere like a fish out of water, Key probably means that south is up. ie Less than fifty dollars.
It is either that or hocking the kids future with government debt to sustain the local economy. The current economic climate doesn’t indicate that is something we should do yet – have to have a substantial sustained increase in unemployment first. But it is something that government should keep in reserve. Using it to get yourself elected will cause a hell of backlash from the people that have been paying for the excesses of the Muldoon government for decades.
The other alternative is to cut expenditure. Same kind of problem. To do it in the short term required for the expectations that the Nat’s have raised, requires slash and burn in government. We’ve seen that before in the 90’s. It is a excellent way to start a long-term recession. You cannot get older people to vote for it.
You can shift expenditure over a couple of terms but not massively in the next 3 years. Max would be in order of billions, not 10’s of billions. So there isn’t a lot of room for the Nat’s to move. They may be able to add a chewing gum taxcut next year on top of what goes through in october, but that is about it.
I think that we’ll have to add a whole new maneuver to the political lexicon this year. “Advancing into the future while back-pedaling furiously”.
It is going to be a massive Houdini act by Key and English. And it is going to be really funny to watch.
National have been hoist by their own petard. They, along with the tax cut lobby that gets virtually a fee ride in the middle class media, has created a level of expectation on tax cuts that they simply will not be able to meet. Single people in the $65,000-$85,000 seriously expect tax cuts in the order of $100-120PW and singles below that expect a minimum of $50PW from National. The only way National could possibly achieve these sorts of cuts for the middle class is either take the money from low & middle income New Zealanders or slash core government spending or borrow heavily, or more like a combination of all three. Key is already backing off promising huge tax cuts but I think it is to little, to late. National has been a single issue party for three years on this and they can’t turn the ship around so easily. The expectation they’ve created is sky high and if they don’t deliver they risk a huge backlash.
The credibilty issue still sits with Labour. 8 years of nothing (forget WFF the benefit)It’s obvious to all but the simplist of people that Labopur have only cut taxes to remain in power
National have stated repeatedly that it is a priority and there will be ongoing tax relief. Thats the difference.
gobsmacked: `Given that National’s (official) platform is very different from their last one, I’d suggest the agenda has been absolutely set by Labour (and partly, Winston).’
This isn’t what I mean, and isn’t what you seemed to mean when talking about `the last week’. I agree that Labour’s greatest achivement has been establishing a bunch of their core policies as political orthodoxy, but National are firmly in control of the media agenda leading into the election.
Parties that successfully control the short-to-medium-term tactical agenda don’t fall 15-30% behind in the polls. Labour might claim to have been playing an underdog game to give National a false sense of confidence, but I think that’d be the sort of glib explanation only a true party hack could believe.
toms: “National have been hoist by their own petard.”
This seems to be the fashionable phrase of the year. I think it’s Labour’s intention that this be the case, but it’s far too early to call it so as yet.
Lew – I like the fact that you seem so sure of how the game is played. You seem to treat it as an exact science and phrase your statements as undeniable fact I particularly like the way you use phrases such as “short-to-medium-term tactical agenda”. Would you like to explain to we lesser folk exactly how you define “short-to-medium-term tactical agenda”? Because from where I sit it looks like a pretty nebulous phrase…
gobsmacked – I think you’re right about it being the wrong strategy. It was possibly ok until the Budget. Now voters are expecting to be able to compare he beginnings of two policy plans. The media are clearly tiring of National’s ‘style over substance’ approach too. I’ll post a collection of comments shortly. The next questions might be “do they even have any policy?” rather than “what aren’t they telling us?”.
Robinsod: Sure thing. Terms: agenda: what people think about (not what people think). Tactic: action taken toward the achievement of a specific goal. Strategy: series of actions taken towards the achievement of an more significant, longer-term goal.
National controls the `leading up to the 2008 election’ agenda, and that is a tactical, rather than a strategic, advantage. If they get into power they get the opportunity to begin implementing strategy. The government, on the other hand, controls the long-term strategic heights, having established as status quo a lot of things New Zealanders know and love – interest-free student loans, WFF, KiwiBank, etc. Even if National’s tactical moves to win the election pay off, they’ll still have their task cut out either working around or dismantling these.
I don’t mean to imply that this is an exact science. It’s manifestly not; this is just my read on it, but I think it’s good. If you don’t, I’m happy to debate it – but I don’t have a lot of time for unjustified `I reckons’ and wishful thinking, which makes up a lot of what I see.
Robinsod: If you can make any actual argument against them other than `from where I sit’ you’re welcome to do so. As it stands it just looks like you don’t understand the terminology or the explanation, don’t agree with what I’m saying, or both, but aren’t willing or able to explain why.
Lew – I can’t be bothered arguing point by point because the parameters of the argument you want to have are nothing more than punditry bingo in which all sorts of conclusions can be drawn using all sorts of evidence. I get tired of you phrasing your comments as if you are giving indisputable expert advice. Especially when you are seriously off the mark so often. You seem to believe you are above the game looking down on it objectively. What you don’t understand is that this is just your shtick.
Frankly Lew? Your comments bore the shit out of me and they inevitably drag interesting threads into dull circular arguments about how “the game” works (which, by the way, is the worst kind of political naval gazing). Try making a comment about policy or something with substance. Please.
Mike – go fu*k yourself. You’ve never won an argument in you life. Principally because you are too dumb. You should get back to work and stop stealing your employer’s time.
Sod, can you go even a day without attacking other commenters? I know you don’t like people and all but can you focus your criticism on the arguments rather than the people making them?
Just a point Lew- Labour didn’t “fall behind”, National consolidated the centre-right vote and leapt ahead. Labour support is actually pretty close to what it was last election in most of the polls. The real issue seems to be that some of the vote on the Left has gone to the Greens, (which is promptly ignored due to being a third party) and most of the vote on the right has consolidated around National. (as happened last election) Overall, the left has lost about two points since 2005- which is very different from the way political commentators are framing things.
It’s also really important to note that it really doesn’t matter whether National gets more votes than Labour- Labour has shown it can negotiate much better with minor parties. National pretty much has to ensure that it and Act have a majority of the party vote between them to win. (And that’s contingent on the Maori Party not having too large an overhang or with UF/NZF getting through and dealing with National) In that respect, National is barely scraping through on current polling.
Constantly talking about the gap between the two main parties ignores the realities of MMP. 🙂
You don’t get it I don’t want to argue “the game” with you because it’s like arguing with mormons. Easy to win but why would you put yourself through it? Look bro, your politics seem sound and you’re obviously not a moron. Why not talk about something of value? It seems such a terrible waste as it stands…
Running the latest Roy Morgan poll through the calculator, assuming NZF, UF, and Act all get electorates and that the Maori Party scoops all the Maori electorates, here’s what I get:
National would not be able to govern without the support of either the Maori Party or NZF- (Act doesn’t tip the scale either way) both of which are very unlikely and potentially unstable coalition partners for National. Of course, for Labour to be Government, it would need the Progressives, Greens, Maori Party, and NZF. Which would be hard to cinch too.
All in all- it’s really, really close right now, and that’s before we consider the fact that polls traditionally favour National, and whether there’ll be any weather changes before the election.
Ari: This is a good point, though the first bit depends heavily on which polls you believe.
There’s a fair bit of research on an idea of the `authoritarian personality’ which claims to explain why `the left’ tends to fragment and `the right’ tends to agglomerate – which is what you identify here. The argument roughly goes that people on `the right’ are more inclined to hold the line and allow their own needs to be subsumed by a greater force, while those on `the left’ are more inclined to be tolerant of difference and to co-operate while remaining separate. I’m not sure how much I buy the `authoritarian personality’ line, and I certainly don’t agree that National supporters should be tarred with an `authoritarian’ brush, but it seems a handy explanation.
Robinsod: People being unwilling to analyse `the game’ is one reason why National are ahead: the government has singularly failed to control the short-term political agenda. This is also the reason National looked like winning in 2005: Orewa set the agenda and the government struggled to respond.
HS- in that poll I believe he was at 4 or 4.5%. If John Key is slippery, we’re going to need a new, much stronger word for Winston. It looks like he may be back again for 2008 at the moment- whether by running in Tauranga again or through picking up some extra points in the party vote before the election.
Lew- that analysis sounds like a good general guide to me. (although the Left violated it a bit in 2005- but that election was essentially a “race to the centre” that squeezed out all the minor parties) I’d probably frame it more as right-wing voters being more conservative and looking for collective wisdom, while left-wing voters tend to vote based on ideas/ideology and thus tend to split a bit more.
edit: and as for your later comment, there was a lot of talk along those lines at Drinking Liberally- that Labour was giving out bullet points of its achievements in true pre-election style while National was coasting along playing the game with emotive politics.
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Braking And Entering: The CCTV recording of the ram-raid against Auckland’s Ormiston Mall is so disturbing, so inspiring of dread and rage, that no amount of rational commentary will make the slightest difference. It confirms in the most powerful fashion the stories so many New Zealanders have been telling themselves: ...
The Author of this Dorset Eye article, Ukraine – a beginner’s guide, says: “In 2014, the journalist and writer John Pilger wrote an article for The Guardian newspaper entitled ‘In Ukraine the US is dragging us towards war with Russia’.[i] Eight years later, in 2022, this prediction came true when ...
What's better than some Cranky Uncle cartoons scattered around here or there? A collection of them, cross-referenced with the fallacies they depict, of course! And this is what we highlight in this blog post. John Cook had made these cartoons available for download on his Cranky Uncle website in March 2021 ...
For decades now we've known that climate change will cause sea-level rise. In Aotearoa, the projections so far have been for 30cm by 2050, and 1m by 2100 - a level which is catastrophic to low-lying areas and coastal infrastructure and which is going to cost us billions of dollars ...
Losses to Australian teams over the weekend by both the Crusaders and Hurricanes have been greeted with shock and surprise by New Zealand rugby fans. Yet, an at least partial explanation is available; the two losses were both set in motion early in each match by a play that is ...
One of the more infuriating aspects of the current political debate is the way the National Party says it would be more rigorous, and more thriftily efficient in running social programmes that – left to its own devices – a National government would never have funded at all in the ...
As a Government, we made it clear to New Zealanders that we’d take meaningful action on climate change, and that’s exactly what we’ve done. Earlier today, we released our next steps with our Emissions Reduction Plan – which will meet the Climate Commission’s independent science-based emissions reduction targets, and new ...
Emissions Reduction Plan prepares New Zealand for the future, ensuring country is on track to meet first emissions budget, securing jobs, and unlocking new investment ...
The Greens are calling for the Government to reconsider the immigration reset so that it better reflects our relationship with our Pacific neighbours. ...
Hamilton City Council and Whanganui District Council have both joined a growing list of Local Authorities to pass a motion in support of Green Party Drug Reform Spokesperson Chlöe Swarbrick’s Members’ bill to minimise alcohol harm. ...
Today, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced a major package of reforms to address the immediate skill shortages in New Zealand and speed up our economic growth. These include an early reopening to the world, a major milestone for international education, and a simplification of immigration settings to ensure New Zealand ...
Proposed immigration changes by the Government fail to guarantee pathways to residency to workers in the types of jobs deemed essential throughout the pandemic, by prioritising high income earners - instead of focusing on the wellbeing of workers and enabling migrants to put down roots. ...
Ehara taku toa i te toa takatahi, engari taku toa he toa takimano – my strength is not mine alone but the strength of many (working together to ensure safe, caring respectful responses). We are striving for change. We want all people in Aotearoa New Zealand thriving; their wellbeing enhanced ...
The Green Party is throwing its support behind the 10,000 allied health workers taking work-to-rule industrial action today because of unfair pay and working conditions. ...
Since the day we came into Government, we’ve worked hard to lift wages and reduce cost pressures facing New Zealanders. But we know the rising cost of living, driven by worldwide inflation and the war in Ukraine, is making things particularly tough right now. That’s why we’ve stepped up our ...
An independent review of New Zealand’s detention regime for asylum seekers has found arbitrary and abusive practices in Aotearoa’s immigration law, policy, and practice. ...
Legislation that will help prevent serious criminal offending at sea, including trafficking of humans, drugs, wildlife and arms, has passed its third reading in Parliament today, Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta announced. “Today is a milestone in allowing us to respond to the increasingly dynamic and complex maritime security environment facing ...
Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor is set to travel to Thailand this week to represent New Zealand at the annual APEC Ministers Responsible for Trade (MRT) meeting in Bangkok. “I’m very much looking forward to meeting my trade counterparts at APEC 2022 and building on the achievements we ...
Settlement of the first pay-equity agreement in the health sector is hugely significant, delivering pay rises of thousands of dollars for many hospital administration and clerical workers, Health Minister Andrew Little says. “There is no place in 21st century Aotearoa New Zealand for 1950s attitudes to work predominantly carried out ...
Health Minister Andrew Little opened a new intensive care space for up to 12 ICU-capable beds at Christchurch Hospital today, funded from the Government’s Rapid Hospital Improvement Programme. “I’m pleased to help mark this milestone. This new space will provide additional critical care support for the people of Canterbury and ...
Budget 2022 will continue to deliver on Labour’s commitment to better services and support for mental wellbeing. The upcoming Budget will include a $100-million investment over four years for a specialist mental health and addiction package, including: $27m for community-based crisis services that will deliver a variety of intensive supports ...
Budget 2022 will continue to deliver on Labour’s commitment to better mental wellbeing services and support, with 195,000 primary and intermediate aged children set to benefit from the continuation and expansion of Mana Ake services. “In Budget 2022 Labour will deliver on its manifesto commitment to expand Mana Ake, with ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta has today announced sanctions on Belarusian leaders and defence entities supporting Russia’s actions in Ukraine, as part of the Government’s ongoing response to the war. “The Belarusian government military is enabling the illegal and unacceptable assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty,” Nanaia Mahuta said. “Under the leadership of ...
Just after World War 2, there were incentives to clear forest and bring land into agricultural production. In places, the land had been stripped bare as forests were felled for sheep grazing. Today, you only have to look at the hills around Taihape and see the stumps of a once ...
The drive to decarbonise industry and further accelerate preparations for a sustainable, more resilient future will get a boost from the Climate Emergency Response Fund in Budget 2022 by supercharging efforts to encourage the switch to cleaner energy options and transform the energy system. “Today is a momentous day ...
The Government is investing in New Zealand’s economic security by ensuring climate change funding moves away from short-term piecemeal responses and towards smart, long-term investment. Climate Emergency Response Fund (CERF) established with $4.5 billion from Emissions Trading Scheme revenue Initial allocation of $2.9 billion over four years invested in emissions ...
Rolling out the Clean Car Upgrade programme, supporting lower- and middle- income families transition to low-emission alternatives through a new scrap-and-replace trial Helping low-income households lease low emission vehicles Supporting the rapid development of urban cycleway networks, walkable neighbourhoods, healthier school travel, and increased accessibility and reliability of public ...
New Centre for Climate Action on Agricultural Emissions that develops and commercialises smart new products to reduce agricultural emissions Funding for forestry to develop alternatives to fossil fuels, boost carbon storage and increase sequestration Support for producers and whenua Māori entities to transition to a low emissions future The ...
The Government is investing to support the growth of New Zealand’s digital technologies sector in Budget 2022, guiding the country towards a high-wage, low emissions economy, Minister for the Digital Economy and Communications, David Clark announced today. “In 2020, the digital technologies sector contributed $7.4 billion to the economy. Since ...
Minister of State for Trade and Export Growth, Hon Phil Twyford, has tested positive for COVID-19. He tested positive from a RAT this morning after beginning to feel symptomatic on Friday evening, and is displaying moderate symptoms. As a result he is no longer able to travel to Timor-Leste on ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has tested positive for COVID-19. She has been in isolation since Sunday 8 May when her partner Clarke Gayford tested positive. The Prime Minister has been symptomatic since Friday evening, returning a weak positive last night and a clear positive this morning on a RAT test. ...
$15 million boost over four years for youth development services including: $2.5 million annually to support increased access to youth development services for up to an additional 6,800 young people $1 million annually in a pilot initiative supporting full-time equivalent youth workers to deliver increased contact time with at least ...
Minister of State for Trade and Export Growth, Hon Phil Twyford, will represent the New Zealand Government at the commemoration of the 20th Anniversary of Timor-Leste’s independence, and the inauguration of Dr Jose Ramos-Horta as Timor-Leste’s next President. “Aotearoa New Zealand’s relationship with the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste dates back ...
Kua pānuihia ngā kaupapa mō Matariki Ahunga Nui Kua pānuihia ngā kaitono i angitu ā rātou tono pūtea hei tautoko i te iwi Māori ki te whakaora mai anō, ki te whakatinana anō i ngā mātauranga mō Matariki o te hau kāinga. I whakaterea te kaupapa o Matariki Ahunga Nui ...
Minister of Transport Michael Wood has welcomed the opening of the tender processes for Auckland Light Rail and the Additional Waitematā Harbour Connections project, marking an important step forward in developing a future-proofed rapid transit network that will serve generations of Aucklanders. “These two crucial projects represent a huge investment ...
Aotearoa New Zealand is providing more funding to the Access to COVID-19 Tools (ACT) Accelerator for global efforts to respond to the pandemic. “The health, economic and social impacts of COVID continue to be felt around the world,” Nanaia Mahuta said. “This further $10 million will support developing countries to ...
Updated pass can be downloaded from 24 May for people 12 and over People encouraged to stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccinations Boosters included in up-to-date My Vaccine Pass for those 18 and over New Zealanders who are up-to-date with their COVID-19 vaccinations will be able to download ...
New legislation to modernise the management of 1.2 million hectares of Crown pastoral land primarily in the South Island high country was passed in Parliament today. Land Information Minister Damien O’Connor said the Crown Pastoral Land Reform (CPLR) Bill has passed its third reading. “These spectacular South Island properties are ...
Aotearoa New Zealand strongly condemns the campaign of destructive cyber activity by Russia against Ukraine, alongside the EU and international partners, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “These relentless attacks are part of a pattern of disruptive cyber activity that demonstrates a repeated disregard for the rules-based international order and established ...
The Government has released a review of the operation and effectiveness of the law controlling commercial space activities, and signalled a separate study on wider issues of space policy will begin later this year. Economic Development Minister Stuart Nash says a review of the Outer Space and High-Altitude Activities Act ...
New Zealand has initiated dispute settlement proceedings against Canada regarding its implementation of dairy tariff rate quotas (TRQs) under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Trade and Export Growth Minister Damien O’Connor said. “Our priority is to ensure that New Zealand exporters have meaningful access to the benefits negotiated ...
Support for ongoing and transitional Care in the Community support, including: A pivot in work for Community Connectors Confidence and certainty for community food organisations and MSD’s Food Secure Communities programme Funding to support the wellbeing of disabled people The Government is updating its Care in the Community (CiC) ...
295 events covering at least 607 performances that have had to cancel or suffered losses due to COVID-19 have had their costs reimbursed, with total support paid out to events now exceeding $20 million 186 future events in 2022 and 2023 have also received cover 64 organisations have been ...
International students can enrol to study in New Zealand from July 31 Minister to travel to USA, Chile and Brazil to promote studying here International fee-paying students under Year 9 can continue to enrol in schools New Zealand International Education Strategy being refreshed New Zealand is fully reopening to ...
Good morning, I want to start by thanking our hosts the Wellington Chamber of Commerce who graciously do this every year as we lead into the Budget. I want to make a particular acknowledgement of the recent partnership that the Chamber has entered into with Te Awe the Maori Business ...
A Bill to help lower the fees charged when credit and debit transactions are made, will save New Zealand businesses around $74 million a year. The Retail Payment System Bill passed its third reading today, regulating merchant service fees, and reducing a major overhead for small business, Commerce and Consumer ...
I te whare pāremata ngā uri o Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa Tāmaki nui-ā-Rua i tēnei rā kia kite, kia rongo hoki rātou i te hipanga o te pānuitanga tuatahi o te Pire Whakataunga Kokoraho mō Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa Tāmaki nui-ā-Rua. Ko Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa Tāmaki nui-ā-Rua tētahi kohinga ...
Kua hinga ngā kapua pōuri i runga i Taranaki maunga. Kua wehe atu rā te Tumuaki o te Hāhi Ratana, arā ko matua Harerangi Meihana. E koro, moe mai rā. Me piki ake koe mā runga te aroha o to iwi ki te taha o to koroua, arā a Tahupōtiki ...
Kia ora koutou katoa Thank you to Business New Zealand and Fujitsu for hosting us here today, and I am grateful to be joined by Minister Faafoi, and Minister Hipkins. Can I thank you also for being so agile in the arrangements for our lunch event. I had of course ...
Border fully open two months early from 11:59pm 31 July Significantly simplified immigration processes that provide faster processing for businesses New Green List that includes over 85 hard to fill roles created to attract and retain high-skilled workers to fill skill shortages Green List will provide streamlined and prioritised ...
Up to 150 new homes will be built for whānau who need them most thanks to a new partnership between the Government and Toitū Tairāwhiti, Minister of Housing Hon Dr Megan Woods and Associate Minister of Housing (Māori Housing) Peeni Henare have announced. Minister Henare and Toitū Tairāwhiti gathered in ...
As part of the Government’s ongoing response to Ukraine, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta has announced new sanctions targeting disinformation and those responsible for cyber attacks on Ukraine. “Aotearoa New Zealand continues to unequivocally condemn Russia’s unjustified and illegal attack on Ukraine,” Nanaia Mahuta said. “President Putin’s propaganda machine is in ...
Significant improvements are being made in New Zealand workplaces to better protect whistleblowers, Minister for the Public Service Chris Hipkins said today. “The Protected Disclosures (Protection of Whistleblowers) Act 2022 replaces the Protected Disclosures Act 2000. It is more people-focused and will make the rules easier to access, understand, and ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced the appointment of Jonathan Schwass as New Zealand’s next High Commissioner to Solomon Islands. “Aotearoa New Zealand and Solomon Islands have a long history of close engagement as Pacific whānau,” Nanaia Mahuta said. “Our partnership is founded on cooperation in areas such as ...
Budget 2022 delivers $114.5 million over four years to prevent and respond to family violence and sexual violence across Aotearoa Investment includes a $38.1 million boost for community-led integrated responses $37.6 million to prevent violence by strengthening existing initiatives in Māori and Pacific communities and for Aotearoa as a ...
This week (9 – 15 May 2022) is New Zealand Sign Language Week (NZSL), a nationwide celebration of NZSL as an official language of New Zealand. “This year’s theme ‘New Zealand Sign Language is essential’ recognises the prominence and importance of our third official language, and draws a spotlight on ...
A producer of a documentary about Green Party MP Chloe Swarbrick says there are serious discussions to be had about the impact of trolling on the mental health of MPs. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra As well as her interviews with politicians and experts, Politics with Michelle Grattan includes “Word from The Hill”, where she discusses the news with members of The Conversation politics team. In this podcast Michelle and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Malcolm Mackerras, Distinguished Fellow, PM Glynn Institute, Australian Catholic University Shutterstock As you head to your local polling place this Saturday, or cast your ballot in an early vote, it’s worth pondering: how does Australia’s voting system really work, anyway? ...
By Walter Zweifel, RNZ French Pacific reporter The Kanak people will not accept France’s attempt to “recolonise” New Caledonia, a pro-independence delegate has told the United Nations. Addressing a UN Decolonisation Committee seminar on the Pacific in Saint Lucia, Dimitri Qenegei said since 2020 the French President, Emmanuel Macron, and ...
RNZ News Critics of New Zealand’s new $4.5 billion global warming plan to help New Zealanders into electric vehicles and hybrids say a significant cheque for the Clean Car programme is sending the wrong message about the role cars play in the country’s future. Victoria University of Wellington’s environmental studies ...
Stuff A West Papuan international student in Aotearoa New Zealand has devoted hundreds of hours to a non-profit organisation and opened a door to a new career. Arnold Yoman, 19, came to New Zealand in 2019 from the Papuan provincial capital Jayapura on an Indonesian government scholarship and has been ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Clark, Deputy Engagement Editor, The Conversation What do One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Labor’s Tanya Plibersek have in common? They are both winning the battle for eyeballs on social media, says a top Facebook official. In the final episode ...
Party People - Former National MP Simon Bridges joins the party to discuss life after politics, the latest polls, co-governance, ram raids and the Australian elections. ...
The House - Why is the Budget usually on a Thursday, why just before a sitting break, and why is the debate on it usually interrupted by urgent business? ...
There has been mixed reaction from Māori to the government's Emissions Reduction Plan, with some arguing there are still gaps that the report does not address. ...
If Dr Shane Reti happened to insist the world is not flat, would RNZ see much merit in reporting he had come under fire from flat earthers? We ask because a recent RNZ report was headed Shane Reti stands firm in face of criticism of Māori health comments Oh dear. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Martin, Visiting Fellow, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The last week of campaigns used to be frantic, behind the scenes. In public, right up until the final week, the leaders would make all sorts of promises, many of ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Scott, Professor of Health Economics, The University of Melbourne “Strengthening Medicare” is one of Labor’s key election platforms. On Saturday, one week from the election, the opposition finally outlined its commitment to prop up the ailing primary care system, with a ...
The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union hereby corrects its statements on a documentary about sitting Green MP Chlöe Swarbrick and its claim that the project is set to receive $220,000 of taxpayer money from NZ on Air. An anonymous ‘spokesperson’ ...
Uh, oh – it’s probably too late to influence the government on the case for its spending to be curbed ahead of the Budget Speech to be delivered on Thursday. The speech and the raft of documents that will accompany it will be ready for the printer – if not ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carol Johnson, Emerita Professor, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Adelaide Scott Morrison’s election strategy was clear at the end of last year. As borders were opened up and restrictions eased, Morrison argued the Coalition would be winding back the ...
The National Party Leader does not think taxpayers should subsidise the cost of big companies reducing their emissions - and they should get on with the job themselves. ...
Despite pouring $2.9 billion of taxpayer funds into the battle against climate change, the Ardern government won few plaudits from climate change lobbies – and copped a severe caning from Greenpeace for refusing to cut dairy herds. As Radio NZ reported, “Climate activists say the government’s landmark plan to curb ...
Caritas welcomes the government's first emissions reduction plan and the general cross-party support for long-term carbon budgets that start to bring down our carbon emissions. "A strong, committed carbon reduction plan is long overdue," ...
The Forest Owners Association says the just released Emissions Reduction Plan is a welcome and unprecedented blueprint for reducing New Zealand’s gross emissions. But the Association is warning that a huge emphasis in the ERP on planting native ...
The big news from the Beehive in the past day has been the announcement of the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan to put the country on track to meet its first emissions budget, securing our environment and economy. More of that in our next post. For now, suffice to say Prime ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Welch, Senior Lecturer in Urban Planning, University of Auckland Shutterstock It would be hard to find someone who’s visited Copenhagen or Amsterdam and complained about too many bikes. And you don’t tend to hear a lot of moaning about ...
The government has released its first plan on how to get to zero carbon emissions by 2050. The Emissions Reduction Plan proposes economy-wide changes to drive down New Zealand’s emissions. The SMC asked experts to comment on: An overview of the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Dodd, Senior Lecturer in Finance, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Uncertainty in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has wreaked havoc with the international commodity markets. In the normal pattern of the global economy, commodity exporting countries ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katherine Ravenswood, Associate Professor in Employment Relations, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Ahead of the 2022 budget, apprenticeships have been given a $230 million funding boost while negotiations between care workers and the government have fallen apart. It’s hard ...
New Zealand Green Investment Finance (NZGIF) welcomes the release of New Zealand’s first Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) and acknowledges cross-party support in passing the initial emissions budgets in Parliament last week. Chief Executive Craig Weise ...
The Government’s emissions reduction plan has highlighted the extraordinary impact of its proposal to remove exotic trees from the permanent category of the ETS, increasing the country’s emissions by 45Mt – the equivalent of more than two years of road ...
A union-led coalition is calling for the New Zealand Government to ratify an international labour convention to create a formal framework for addressing violence and harassment at work. The ‘ Coalition for a Safe World of Work ’ is officially launching its ...
The government is defending not making the agriculture sector pay for a new agri-tech centre, saying the technology still needs to be rolled out to farms. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scott Hollier, Adjunct Senior Lecturer – Science and Mathematics, Edith Cowan University Shutterstock When people hear the term “accessibility” in the context of disability, most will see images of ramps, automatic doors, elevators, or tactile paving (textured ground which helps ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Williams, Associate Professor, Griffith University, Griffith University Mick Tsikas/AAP In the first week of the campaign, we journeyed around the country with six politics experts to examine the key seats and issues affecting different parts of the Australia. What ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Markus A. Höllerer, Professor in Organization and Management, UNSW Sydney Australia has recently experienced multiple natural and man-made disasters, creating overlapping crises, often disproportionately affecting disadvantaged populations. The situation is here to stay, and, worryingly, likely to worsen. But what are we ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lara Herrero, Research Leader in Virology and Infectious Disease, Griffith University Shutterstock So, you’re starting to feel unwell. Your throat hurts, your head aches, you feel tired and you’ve developed a cough. You’ve recently had COVID but as we ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Baddeley, Associate Dean Research/Professor in Economics, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney Getty If a week is a long time in politics, three years is an eternity. Since the 2019 election, Australia has endured devastating megafires and unprecedented ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Dempsey, Senior lecturer, University of Canterbury Shutterstock Energy is the double-edged sword at the root of the climate crisis. Cheap energy has improved lives and underpinned massive economic growth. But because most of it comes from burning hydrocarbon fuels, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Hamilton, Visiting Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Shutterstock At their first televised debate four weeks ago, Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese were asked by an audience member how each would ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jenny Hocking, Emeritus Professor, Monash University Gough Whitlam delivering the 1972 election policy speech at the Blacktown Civic Centre in Sydney, 1972.National Archives of Australia via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC-SA As we enter the final week of the election campaign with ...
Climate activists say the government's landmark plan to curb emissions is light on detail, full of fluff, and lets the worst polluters off the hook. ...
By Rowan Quinn, RNZ News health correspondent Striking New Zealand health workers have picketed around the country, saying they are fed up with being underpaid and undervalued. About 10,000 allied health staff who work at district health boards have walked off the job for 24 hours, with rolling demonstrations. They ...
SPECIAL REPORT:By Kalinga Seneviratne When Australians go to the polls on Saturday to elect a new government, the vast continent which was stolen from the indigenous people in 1788 and annexed to the British crown may have its “independent day” — not one that would declare itself a republic, ...
RNZ Pacific French Polynesia’s Amuitahiraa Party has registered its three candidates for the French National Assembly elections next month — just hours before the nomination deadline. The three are Pascale Haiti, Jonathan Tariha’a and Sylviane Terooatea. Haiti, a former member of the French Polynesian Assembly, is the partner of party ...
By Mara Cepeda in Manila Philippine Vice-President Leni Robredo will not allow the massive, volunteer-led movement she inspired in the 2022 presidential elections to just fade away following her loss to the late dictator’s son Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. Facing tens of thousands of her supporters during her thanksgiving event ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Peterie, Research Fellow, University of Sydney Some people in immigration detention could be asked to pay for their own incarceration, as part of a new border protection policy announced by the Coalition on Friday. The government has indicated “foreign criminals” awaiting ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Bekessy, Professor in Sustainability and Urban Planning, Leader, Interdisciplinary Conservation Science Research Group (ICON Science), RMIT University Shutterstock The animals and plants at risk of extinction finally made it onto the political agenda last week, as Labor and the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cherine Fahd, Associate Professor, School of Design, University of Technology Sydney David HooleyReview: Son of Byblos, directed by Anna Jahjah for Brave New World Theatre Company The downstairs theatre at Belvoir might be small but the energy conjured from ...
Labour backbenchers, conscious that recent polling shows their political futures could be cut short, will be looking to this week’s budget to replenish their party’s popularity with handouts to swing votes. They could be disappointed, if the Budget’s programme does not tackle voters’ concerns. BNZ economists last week warned that ...
Minister of Building and Construction Poto Williams is supporting calls for mental health initiatives to be written into government construction contracts. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jess Carniel, Senior Lecturer in Humanities, University of Southern Queensland The 66th edition of the Eurovision Song Contest was held in Turin, Italy on Saturday night. The extravaganza didn’t disappoint in delivering our annual dose of ballads, bops and politics. The answer ...
Following up on a daily flow of news about some corporate how’s-your-father that brought the heads of the DGL Group and My Food Bag into a series of articles last week, Point of Order initially was led astray by information on the NZX website. The company which the NZX records ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurie Berg, Associate Professor, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock If the COVID years have taught us anything about migration, it is that Australia depends on it. About 7% of our workforce holds a temporary visa. When many international students, backpackers ...
Forest & Bird welcomes the launch of New Zealand's first Emissions Reduction Plan, which recognises that nature needs to be at the heart of our climate change response. "Forest & Bird is heartened the ERP's principles state working ...
Gas NZ welcomes the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan, which paves the way for renewable gases. Gas NZ Chief Executive, Janet Carson says gas is a fuel in transition and through collective action gas will play a role in meeting New Zealand’s pledge ...
The Real Estate Authority (REA) today launched its public consultation on draft guidelines setting out how the conduct regulator assesses whether an applicant for a real estate licence is a ‘fit and proper’ person, under section 36 of the Real ...
LGNZ is calling for more investment in initiatives that promote behaviour change, as the first Emission Reduction Plan is unveiled today. “The Government will have missed a trick if it doesn’t continue its public transport subsidy,” says LGNZ ...
The government hasn’t gone far enough to tackle the carbon pollution from homes and buildings in today’s emissions reduction plan says the Green Building Council. The built environment makes up 20 per cent of New Zealand’s carbon footprint , ...
Auckland Mayor Phil Goff has welcomed the government’s first Emissions Reduction Plan, which he says strongly supports the programme of work planned for Auckland under the council’s proposed Climate Action Targeted Rate (CATR). “I welcome ...
Greenpeace has dubbed the Government’s Emissions Reduction Plan an 'Omissions Ridiculous Plan’, for its failure to address New Zealand’s biggest climate polluter - the dairy industry. Lead agriculture campaigner Christine Rose says, "Intensive ...
National Road Carriers is seeking more detail of the Government’s plans to cut freight emissions by 35 percent by 2035 by using low emissions trucks to transport food and other products. The Government’s Emission Reduction Plan for transport ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janine Mohamed, Distinguished Fellow and CEO, The Lowitja Institute The Close the Gap 2022 report calls on governments to make “large-scale systemic reforms to truly empower Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.” This is a call to recognise and support self-determination and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deborah Bateson, Clinical Associate Professor, Discipline of Obstetrics, Gynaecology and Neonatology, University of Sydney Shutterstock Intrauterine devices (IUDs) are small T-shaped plastic devices containing either copper or a low dose of progestogen hormone. Lasting five to ten years, they provide ...
Federated Farmers is pleased the government has recognised solutions to agricultural emissions lie in new technologies and tools, and is stepping up investment on that front. "Nitrate and methane inhibitors, gene editing, animals bred for their ...
The Free Fares Campaign is disappointed in the lack of mention of public transport fares in the Emissions Reduction Plan, released today by the Government. While the plan has some good wins, such as decarbonizing the public transport fleet and increased ...
Skilled and experienced former refugees are being asked to help support government decision-makers and policy developers on matters impacting refugees in New Zealand. Immigration New Zealand (INZ), Refugees Seeking Equal Access at the Table ( R-SEAT ...
Today’s release of the Government’s Emission Reduction Plan highlights that all industries need to play a role in driving sustainable outcomes for New Zealand, says Property Council New Zealand chief executive Leonie Freeman. “We congratulate ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate C. Prickett, Director of the Roy McKenzie Centre for the Study of Families and Children, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Urgent and bold – transformative even – budget decisions are needed if we are ...
New Zealand’s energy sector is committed to climate action and working constructively with the Government to help it achieve net zero emissions by 2050, but disagrees with the approach outlined in the Emissions Reduction Plan says John Carnegie, Chief ...
That’s so funny. Haven’t laughed so much since I read one of Redbaiter’s pieces a couple of days ago.
thing is, he has got about 5 months or so to practice…
He’s had over a year and still shows no sign of having any new ideas on tax – he tries to avoid all detail and when pressed it comes out as same old national – lower tax on the wealthy, pay for it by cutting the social wage.
The Grand Strategy of not leaving Labour, Greens and ACT much time to poke holes in it I guess.
That’s a pretty crappy strategy. It means you think your ideas are so flimsy that much time out in the open and they’ll be ripped apart.
But it is the new strategy. ‘small-target’ they call it, you know you’ll be shot to pieces if you say anything of substance so jettison most of your policies (flip flop and adopt the Left’s) and refuse to give anything of substnace on what little remains.
Of course, it depends on the media letting you get away with it.
We’ll see I suppose…I really don’t see them withstanding the journalists for that long, when they’ve already started on it (see campbell, Paul Henry and I think Plunket)
edit: on TAX that is. Surely there will be more policy announcements as the year goes by.
I think it’s a wise strategy in the current climate of anti-Clark anti-Cullen sentiment. Key and National don’t have to be anything at this point: all they have to do is not be the status quo.
The government’s strategy should be to attack them on these grounds with a view to flushing policy out into the open. I do hope for their sakes that Key and English and co. are doing plenty of work behind the scenes, because playing this strategy means that when you come out with policy, it had better be damned good policy.
L
Don’t worry Lew all will be in order when needed.
The latest RM poll makes poor reading for labour also.
49 – 35 which is status quo for that poll. No traction at all after Mickey C threw the kitchen sink at the budget…
mike. that’s the silliest comment of the day. The poll was taken before the Budget – May 5-18.
Lew. it might be a successful stategy but is it a moral or desirable one in a democracy?
Mike: From http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4295/ – “This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 912 electors between May 5-18, 2008.”
We’ll have to wait until the next poll to see how the budget changed matters.
As it happens things don’t look too bad for the government. With the Maori Party, Greens and Progressive they’re within striking distance. That’s MMP for ya.
L
yes you are right Lew – the radio Live news implied it was after the budget but obviously not. Still I doubt Labour will get a sustainable lift all the same.
Steve: A much deeper question, which I think I’ve already answered in another thread. I don’t like it and I don’t think it promotes political openness, but I’m not sure I’d call it immoral. It’s hard to say whether I’d support a party whose policy (as much as I could figure it out) I agreed with if they played this strategy – on the one hand it’s smart play, and smart actors tend to achieve more than dogmatic actors. On the other, it seems like poor form to reward behavior whcih could be used for such potentially cynical purposes.
That said, it’s the nature of the game. Do you want your side to win, or do you want it to lose nobly?
L
“it might be a successful stategy but is it a moral or desirable one in a democracy?”
Nope, THAT is the silliest comment of the day. When was the last time morality played a part in politics? I think you’re in the wrong century SP…
No, it isn’t a smart strategy.
“We’re still working on a tax policy” was fine. “We do have a policy but we’re not telling you yet” is not.
But John Key’s natural instinct is to tell people good news. He talks about “north of $50” because that’s what people want to hear. He talks about bigger and better tax cuts. It’s no longer a vague aspiration, it’s now a concrete promise. He can’t stop himself.
The point is: the more he does this, the more it sounds as though National DO have a policy, and they’re just not telling us. The public don’t like that.
The more Key talks about tax cuts, the more he invites further questioning, and he can’t/won’t answer the inevitable questions. What’s more, as an inexperienced politician, he’s liable to give different answers (he gave several last week), which then become National policy, in the public mind. And so it continues, with Key looking more and more evasive and confused.
Watch National switch to different topics this week. They have lost the advantage on this one now.
“The point is: the more he does this, the more it sounds as though National DO have a policy, and they’re just not telling us.”
What’s the problem? he said it will be rolled out in detail in plenty of time for people to digest it before the election.
I think its smart politics – the economy is only getting worse. the longer he leaves it the greater the appetite for meaningful cuts.
Mike, if you think the public/media are going to spend the next 4 to 5 months saying “OK, no problem, tell us later, whenever you’re ready John”, every time Key talks about tax cuts, then you’re sadly mistaken.
Politics 101: don’t reinforce negative perceptions. “Slippery” is one, and Key is reinforcing it.
Mike: what exactly is a meaningful cut? Key has attempted to put a number on it, and currently the most an interviewer has got out of him is ‘north of fifty dollars’.
However, I believe the polls will continue in Nationals favour, Labour budget aside, until something concrete is announced. At that point I’m really not sure what will happen, as it probably depends on how well the policy is dressed.
Almost any person answering a poll at the moment will not pick Labours guaranteed $16/week (or whatever it may be for them) over Nationals pledged $50. Once the detail is out, that might change.
National obviously have plan for rolling out the big policy and good on them for sticking to it.
They are making sure they set the agenda not labour or the media.
Mike, if you think National are now setting the agenda you must have spent the last week in a cave.
gobsmacked: “Mike, if you think National are now setting the agenda you must have spent the last week in a cave.”
You’re dead wrong about this. The agenda has already been set: it’s tax cuts, cutting waste, parity with Australia, and a change. Everything in the government’s recent policy, including the budget, is a response to this.
“Politics 101: don’t reinforce negative perceptions. “Slippery’ is one, and Key is reinforcing it.”
As long as he sees the tipping point and moves before it, this probably won’t harm him – presuming he has enough `wow’ policies to justify the wait. It’s risky but not stupid as you claim.
L
Lew
Given that National’s (official) platform is very different from their last one, I’d suggest the agenda has been absolutely set by Labour (and partly, Winston).
Time for a change? Change what?
“North of fifty dollars” really depends on what way you think is up. Based on his current performance of flopping everywhere like a fish out of water, Key probably means that south is up. ie Less than fifty dollars.
It is either that or hocking the kids future with government debt to sustain the local economy. The current economic climate doesn’t indicate that is something we should do yet – have to have a substantial sustained increase in unemployment first. But it is something that government should keep in reserve. Using it to get yourself elected will cause a hell of backlash from the people that have been paying for the excesses of the Muldoon government for decades.
The other alternative is to cut expenditure. Same kind of problem. To do it in the short term required for the expectations that the Nat’s have raised, requires slash and burn in government. We’ve seen that before in the 90’s. It is a excellent way to start a long-term recession. You cannot get older people to vote for it.
You can shift expenditure over a couple of terms but not massively in the next 3 years. Max would be in order of billions, not 10’s of billions. So there isn’t a lot of room for the Nat’s to move. They may be able to add a chewing gum taxcut next year on top of what goes through in october, but that is about it.
I think that we’ll have to add a whole new maneuver to the political lexicon this year. “Advancing into the future while back-pedaling furiously”.
It is going to be a massive Houdini act by Key and English. And it is going to be really funny to watch.
National have been hoist by their own petard. They, along with the tax cut lobby that gets virtually a fee ride in the middle class media, has created a level of expectation on tax cuts that they simply will not be able to meet. Single people in the $65,000-$85,000 seriously expect tax cuts in the order of $100-120PW and singles below that expect a minimum of $50PW from National. The only way National could possibly achieve these sorts of cuts for the middle class is either take the money from low & middle income New Zealanders or slash core government spending or borrow heavily, or more like a combination of all three. Key is already backing off promising huge tax cuts but I think it is to little, to late. National has been a single issue party for three years on this and they can’t turn the ship around so easily. The expectation they’ve created is sky high and if they don’t deliver they risk a huge backlash.
The credibilty issue still sits with Labour. 8 years of nothing (forget WFF the benefit)It’s obvious to all but the simplist of people that Labopur have only cut taxes to remain in power
National have stated repeatedly that it is a priority and there will be ongoing tax relief. Thats the difference.
gobsmacked: `Given that National’s (official) platform is very different from their last one, I’d suggest the agenda has been absolutely set by Labour (and partly, Winston).’
This isn’t what I mean, and isn’t what you seemed to mean when talking about `the last week’. I agree that Labour’s greatest achivement has been establishing a bunch of their core policies as political orthodoxy, but National are firmly in control of the media agenda leading into the election.
Parties that successfully control the short-to-medium-term tactical agenda don’t fall 15-30% behind in the polls. Labour might claim to have been playing an underdog game to give National a false sense of confidence, but I think that’d be the sort of glib explanation only a true party hack could believe.
toms: “National have been hoist by their own petard.”
This seems to be the fashionable phrase of the year. I think it’s Labour’s intention that this be the case, but it’s far too early to call it so as yet.
AG: I agree.
L
Captcha: `candidacy boxing’. Yes, please!
Lew – I like the fact that you seem so sure of how the game is played. You seem to treat it as an exact science and phrase your statements as undeniable fact I particularly like the way you use phrases such as “short-to-medium-term tactical agenda”. Would you like to explain to we lesser folk exactly how you define “short-to-medium-term tactical agenda”? Because from where I sit it looks like a pretty nebulous phrase…
gobsmacked – I think you’re right about it being the wrong strategy. It was possibly ok until the Budget. Now voters are expecting to be able to compare he beginnings of two policy plans. The media are clearly tiring of National’s ‘style over substance’ approach too. I’ll post a collection of comments shortly. The next questions might be “do they even have any policy?” rather than “what aren’t they telling us?”.
Robinsod: Sure thing. Terms: agenda: what people think about (not what people think). Tactic: action taken toward the achievement of a specific goal. Strategy: series of actions taken towards the achievement of an more significant, longer-term goal.
National controls the `leading up to the 2008 election’ agenda, and that is a tactical, rather than a strategic, advantage. If they get into power they get the opportunity to begin implementing strategy. The government, on the other hand, controls the long-term strategic heights, having established as status quo a lot of things New Zealanders know and love – interest-free student loans, WFF, KiwiBank, etc. Even if National’s tactical moves to win the election pay off, they’ll still have their task cut out either working around or dismantling these.
I don’t mean to imply that this is an exact science. It’s manifestly not; this is just my read on it, but I think it’s good. If you don’t, I’m happy to debate it – but I don’t have a lot of time for unjustified `I reckons’ and wishful thinking, which makes up a lot of what I see.
L
From where I sit, Lew you’re engaged in a whole lot of “unjustified `I reckons'” but you posit them as if they were fact.
Robinsod: If you can make any actual argument against them other than `from where I sit’ you’re welcome to do so. As it stands it just looks like you don’t understand the terminology or the explanation, don’t agree with what I’m saying, or both, but aren’t willing or able to explain why.
L
Don’t worry Lew they tend to turn feral on you once their argument is lost.
Lew – I can’t be bothered arguing point by point because the parameters of the argument you want to have are nothing more than punditry bingo in which all sorts of conclusions can be drawn using all sorts of evidence. I get tired of you phrasing your comments as if you are giving indisputable expert advice. Especially when you are seriously off the mark so often. You seem to believe you are above the game looking down on it objectively. What you don’t understand is that this is just your shtick.
Frankly Lew? Your comments bore the shit out of me and they inevitably drag interesting threads into dull circular arguments about how “the game” works (which, by the way, is the worst kind of political naval gazing). Try making a comment about policy or something with substance. Please.
Mike – go fu*k yourself. You’ve never won an argument in you life. Principally because you are too dumb. You should get back to work and stop stealing your employer’s time.
Robinsod: We’ve been down this track before.
If you want to argue against what I write and how `off the mark’ I am, then bring it on.
If you can’t be bothered then please – don’t be bothered.
L
Captcha: `rejoicing press’.
Sod, can you go even a day without attacking other commenters? I know you don’t like people and all but can you focus your criticism on the arguments rather than the people making them?
Just a point Lew- Labour didn’t “fall behind”, National consolidated the centre-right vote and leapt ahead. Labour support is actually pretty close to what it was last election in most of the polls. The real issue seems to be that some of the vote on the Left has gone to the Greens, (which is promptly ignored due to being a third party) and most of the vote on the right has consolidated around National. (as happened last election) Overall, the left has lost about two points since 2005- which is very different from the way political commentators are framing things.
It’s also really important to note that it really doesn’t matter whether National gets more votes than Labour- Labour has shown it can negotiate much better with minor parties. National pretty much has to ensure that it and Act have a majority of the party vote between them to win. (And that’s contingent on the Maori Party not having too large an overhang or with UF/NZF getting through and dealing with National) In that respect, National is barely scraping through on current polling.
Constantly talking about the gap between the two main parties ignores the realities of MMP. 🙂
You don’t get it I don’t want to argue “the game” with you because it’s like arguing with mormons. Easy to win but why would you put yourself through it? Look bro, your politics seem sound and you’re obviously not a moron. Why not talk about something of value? It seems such a terrible waste as it stands…
Running the latest Roy Morgan poll through the calculator, assuming NZF, UF, and Act all get electorates and that the Maori Party scoops all the Maori electorates, here’s what I get:
Act: 1
Greens: 9
Progressives: 1
Labour: 42
Maori: 7
National: 58
New Zealand First: 5
United Future: 1
(Majority: 63 seats, Total: 124 seats)
National would not be able to govern without the support of either the Maori Party or NZF- (Act doesn’t tip the scale either way) both of which are very unlikely and potentially unstable coalition partners for National. Of course, for Labour to be Government, it would need the Progressives, Greens, Maori Party, and NZF. Which would be hard to cinch too.
All in all- it’s really, really close right now, and that’s before we consider the fact that polls traditionally favour National, and whether there’ll be any weather changes before the election.
Ari: This is a good point, though the first bit depends heavily on which polls you believe.
There’s a fair bit of research on an idea of the `authoritarian personality’ which claims to explain why `the left’ tends to fragment and `the right’ tends to agglomerate – which is what you identify here. The argument roughly goes that people on `the right’ are more inclined to hold the line and allow their own needs to be subsumed by a greater force, while those on `the left’ are more inclined to be tolerant of difference and to co-operate while remaining separate. I’m not sure how much I buy the `authoritarian personality’ line, and I certainly don’t agree that National supporters should be tarred with an `authoritarian’ brush, but it seems a handy explanation.
L
Ari
Is Winston back over the magical 5% ?
Robinsod: People being unwilling to analyse `the game’ is one reason why National are ahead: the government has singularly failed to control the short-term political agenda. This is also the reason National looked like winning in 2005: Orewa set the agenda and the government struggled to respond.
Ignoring it doesn’t make it go away.
L
HS- in that poll I believe he was at 4 or 4.5%. If John Key is slippery, we’re going to need a new, much stronger word for Winston. It looks like he may be back again for 2008 at the moment- whether by running in Tauranga again or through picking up some extra points in the party vote before the election.
Lew- that analysis sounds like a good general guide to me. (although the Left violated it a bit in 2005- but that election was essentially a “race to the centre” that squeezed out all the minor parties) I’d probably frame it more as right-wing voters being more conservative and looking for collective wisdom, while left-wing voters tend to vote based on ideas/ideology and thus tend to split a bit more.
edit: and as for your later comment, there was a lot of talk along those lines at Drinking Liberally- that Labour was giving out bullet points of its achievements in true pre-election style while National was coasting along playing the game with emotive politics.
Ari
Indeed Winston should never be written off …… no matter how much I would like to do so.
I’d write him off like a bad cheque if we realistically had even a chance of being rid of him.
The one drawback of MMP is that it gives power to the bloody populists like Winston 😛
Hey hs: didn’t have time to follow up this morning. But have a look at my comment on your link about the council and consultants this morning.